KINH TE-XA HOI ^' OUAN HE KINH TE VIET NAM ^ HOA KY ^' TRIEN VONG HdP TAC Ngay 12 thang 7 nam 1995, Viet Nam va Hoa Ky chinh thiic thiet lap quan he ngoai giao, va lich sii dang mci
Trang 1KINH TE-XA HOI
^'
OUAN HE KINH TE VIET NAM ^ HOA KY
^'
TRIEN VONG HdP TAC
Ngay 12 thang 7 nam 1995,
Viet Nam va Hoa Ky chinh
thiic thiet lap quan he ngoai
giao, va lich sii dang mci ra mot giai
doan phat trien mdi trong quan he
giQa hai nifdc
Quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa
Ky 15 nam qua, ttf khi Hoa Ky bo cam
van chong Viet Nam ngay 03/02/1994,
thiic hien cong nhan ngoai giao va
binh thUdng hoa quan he (12/7/1995)
den nay, da trai qua nhieu moc phat
trien quan trong: Dam phan va ky ket
Hiep dinh Thifdng mai song phiidng;
ky ket cac hiep dinh ve thiic hien
Quyen tac gia, khong ap dung Dieu
luat Jackson-Vanik, eac hiep dinh
OPIC, Ngan hang, Khoa hoc va Cong
nghe, Det - may, Hang khong, Kinh te
va Ky thuat, Nong nghiep, Viet Nam
gia nhap V^TO, ap dung PNTR, Hiep
dinh TIFA Nhiing biidc phat trien
trong quan he kinh te giiia Viet Nam
va Hoa Ky da tao nhiing dieu kien
quan trong cho chiing ta nhin nhan,
danh gia mot each khach quan ve moi
quan he song phiidng giiia hai niidc
Trong bai viet nay, chiing toi trinh
N g u y § n T h i e t Sofn
Vien Nghien ciiu Chdu My
bay ba van de: (1) Ve quan diem quan
he hdp tac Viet Nam va Hoa Ky; (2) Dii bao trien vong quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky; va (3) Dinh hifdng chinh sach giai phap quan he kinh te' Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, n h i m gdp phan neu trien vong quan he kinh te giiia hai niidc trong 10-15 nam tdi
I Quan diem quan he hcfp tac
Trong 15 nam qua, Viet Nam da cd nhiing biidc tien quan trong trong quan he vdi Hoa Ky: tii cam van den thiet lap quan he ngoai giao, ky ket BTA, tii kim ngach xuat nhap khau khong dang kd dau nhiing nam 1990, den 15 ty USD hien nay giiia hai niidc Tuy nhien, 15-20 nam tiep theo se c6 nhiing biidc tien ngoan muc nhii vay khong, khi ma ca My va Vi§t Nam se gap nhieu thach thiic ve cai each va cau true lai nen kinh te, ve nhiing van de an ninh truyen tho'ng
va phi truyen thdng, ve thien tai bao lut, dich benh Theo chiing toi, cd the neu Viet Nam cd chien liidc diing d i n phat trien nhanh va ben viing, va day manh hdn niia quan he tich ciic vdi
Trang 2s o 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
Hoa Ky Dieu nay phu thuoc vao nhan
thiic, quan diem va viec thiic hanh
phat trien ben viing va quan he tich
cite vdi Hoa Ky cua Viet Nam
Chung toi cho ring, mudn hdp tac
lau dai, c6 hieu qua va tin cay lan
nhau, chiing ta can biet quan diem ciia
Hoa Ky ve nhiing ldi ich va muc tieu
cua Hoa Ky trong viec thiet lap quan
he song phifdng vdi Viet Nam va nhiing
van de dd ciia Viet Nam vdi Hoa Ky
2 Quan diem cua Hoa Ky
Theo cac tai lieu cua Hoa Ky\ chiing
toi thay Hoa Ky co cac quan diem ve Icfi
ich vd muc tieu cua Hoa Ky trong quan
he v&i Viet Nam nhif sau:
Nhiing nhan to' tao nen ldi ich ciia
Hoa Ky gom: quan he thiidng mai va
dau tU; cong ddng ngifdi My goc Viet tai
Hoa Ky; cac di san ciia chie'n tranh Viet
Nam; quan he thong qua cac the che' da
phifdng (Lien Hiep quoc, APEC, ARF,
Hiep dinh Doi tac Xuyen Thai Binh
DUdng - TPP ); chia se quan tam ve
Slf noi len manh me ciia Trung Quoc
Nhiing muc tieu cua Hoa Ky gom:
cac mo'i quan he than thien phat trien
hdn, difa Viet Nam hoi nhap sau hdn
vao trao lifu chinh cua cac quoc gia;
md ciia thi trifdng cho thifdng mai va
dau tU; thiic day nhan quyen va dan
chii; duy tri anh hifdng ciia Hoa Ky ci
Dong Nam A
Ben canh nhiing nhan dinh tren day,
con CO rat nhieu danh gia khac ve quan
he Hoa Ky - Viet Nam, chang han,
thang 10/2009, Ngoai trifdng Hoa Ky
Hillary Clinton da tai khing dinh vdi
Phd Thu tifdng Pham Gia Khiem ve quan diem va cam ket ciia Hoa Ky tang cifdng va lam sau rong them quan he vdi Viet Nam (ve an ninh, thifdng mai dau tif, nhan quyen, hdp tac nhan dao, chorig thien tai ); thang 4/2010, tai Dai hoc Ngoai thifdng Ha Noi, Thii trifdng Ngoai giao My Robert D Hormats phat bieu y kie'n ve mot so' van de lien quan den quan he Hoa Ky -Viet Nam^, da noi, Hoa Ky cam ket tang cifdng moi quan he doi tac vdi Viet Nam, coi day la cd sei trong sii hien dien ciia Hoa Ky tai khu viic, va quan he trong khuon kho Hiep dinh Ddi tac Xuyen Thai Binh Difdng (TPP) se la mot bifdc tien tii nhien cung co' moi quan he kinh te nang dong giiia Viet Nam va Hoa Ky Ben canh do, theo Sang kien Xuat khau Quoc gia ciia Tong thoiig Obama, Viet Nam se la mot trong cac thi trifdng ma Hoa Ky ifu tien thiic day moi quan he thifdng mai Ong cho rang, Hoa Ky san sang va luon mong muon trd thanh do'i tac quan trong ho trd nhiing no liic tiep tuc hien dai hoa nen kinh te cua Viet Nam Trong tifdng lai, Hoa Ky mud'n tie'p tuc
phat trien va md rong moi quan he vdi
Viet Nam de giiip Viet Nam tiep tuc ddng vai trd tich ciic nhii mot nen kinh
te dang noi va la doi tac kinh kinh doanh co trach nhiem
Co the cho rang, quan diem ciia phia Hoa Ky la dang thiic day, hifdng tdi va cam ket phat trien hdn niia mdi quan he hdp tac tich ciic va hiiu nghi vdi Viet Nam
Trang 32 Quan dietn cua Viet Nam
Co the cho rang, nhiing quan diem
ciia Nha nifdc Viet Nam ve ldi ich va
muc tieu cua Viet Nam trong quan he
vdi Hoa Ky'^ nhif sau: Hien nay My la
nifdc phat trien nhat the gidi, co tiem
liic kinh te, an ninh quan sii, chinh
tri, khoa hoc cong nghe, dao tao deu
diing hang dau the gidi; Viet Nam
nhat quan thiic day cac moi quan he
hiiu nghi tich ciic vdi Hoa Ky n h i m
thiic hien da dang hda, da phiidng hoa
cac quan he doi ngoai tren tinh than
la ban ciia tat ca cac nifdc tren the
gidi, va hifdng tdi mot quan he hiiu
nghi lau dai, ben viing, ton trong lan
nhau, ciing co ldi, khong anh hudng
den mot ben thii ba nao khac
Qua trinh bay nhiing noi dung cd ban
ve quan diem cua Hoa Ky va cua Viet
Nam, chiing toi cho ring, hai ben da c6
nhan thiic va quan diem hdp ly ve moi
quan he song phifdng, tao cd sei phap ly
md rong quan he kinh te toan dien vdi
nhau mot each nang dpng, hieu qua va
ben viing Viet Nam c&n chii dong, nang
dong hdn niia trong viec thie't lap va md
rong cac quan he vdi Hoa Ky hien tai va
trong 15 nam tdi
Y kien nhan xet cua chung toi
la: vi lpi ich ciia minh, Viet Nam va
My da CO quan diem hdp tac song
phifdng ro rang va tich ciic, c6 kha
nang dUa hai dan toe hifdng tdi mpt
tifdng lai tifdi sang hdn Co the con co
nhi/ng trd nggi trong thiCc tiin quan
he giifa hai niidc, nhiing do khong
con, hay khong phdi la nhifng trd nggi
thuoc logi chu yeu nifa Dieu nay c6
nghia la gidi thiic tien can gat bo nhiing tieu tiet trong quan he giiia hai nifdc, de thiic hien va hifdng tdi hdp tac toan dien nhiing van de cot loi, thiic chat thuoc ldi ich cd ban ciia hai nifdc Tren cd sd do, chiing toi neu mot so' dii bao nhif sau
II Dvf bao trien vong quan he kinh te
De mci rong quan he kinh te vdi Hoa
Ky vi sii phat trien cua Viet Nam, trifdc tien chiing ta can thay difdc nen kinh
te Viet Nam se phat trien nhii the nao
de hdp tac vdi Hoa Ky
1 Trien vgng phdt trien mo hinh kinh teViet Nam
Theo chiing toi, Viet Nam c&n c6 noi liic viing manh, nham ket hdp va phat huy yeu to' ngoai liic co hieu qua Muoii vay, Viet Nam can nhanh chong chuyen tii phat trien kinh te theo chieu rong sang phat trien theo chieu sau, chat liidng, hieu qua, nhanh va ben viing
Tii quan niem nhif vay, chiing toi
cho rang, mo hinh phdt trien kinh te
cua Viet Nam cdn phdi la mo hinh kinh
te thi trifdng phdt trien ben vifng V6i
mo hinh nay, difdng nhien phat trien kinh te phai difdc dien ra trong mot moi quan he hai hoa giiia tang trifcing kinh te nhanh, hien dai, xa hoi dan chii
- cong bing - van minh, moi trifdng trdng sach, vi ldi ich cua nhan dan Dang Cdng san Viet Nam chii trifdng phat trien mot nen kinh te thi trifdng
Trang 4s o 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY theo dinh hifdng xa hdi chii nghia, theo
chiing toi, la theo nghia t r e n day, va
chii trifdng do can difdc n h a n m a n h hdn
niia tai Dai hdi Dang lan thii XI sap tdi
Chiing toi dii bao quan he kinh te
Viet-My chinh tren mo h i n h p h a t trien kinh
te do cua Viet Nam, vi neu mo hinh
khac, hoac noi dung cua mo hinh khac
di, viec hdp tac se khdng hieu qua
2 Kich bdn trien vpng phdt
trien quan he kinh te Viet-My
Trong 15 n a m tdi, t r i e n vong q u a n
he hdp tac k i n h te Viet N a m - Hoa Ky
c6 the tie'n t r i e n theo mot so' hifdng
kich ban sau:
Hudng thif nhd't, trien vgng quan he
kinh te giifa hai niidc cd the phdt trien
rdt cao Vi hien nay, q u a n he giiia hai
nifdc dang c6 xu hifdng p h a t trien tich
Clic, nhiing n h a n to' can trci tie'n t r i n h
p h a t trien q u a n he ciia h a i nifdc, n h i n
chung, khong qua m a n h
Hiidng thif hai, trien vgng phdt
trien quan he kinh teViet Nam - Hoa
Ky se phdt trien cao, on dinh, p h u hdp
vdi tie'n t r i n h p h a t trien n h a n h cua
Viet Nam, k h i nhiing n h a n to' thiic
day difdc hai ben duy tri va p h a t
trien Day la hudng p h a t t r i e n cd tfnh
hien thiic, khong qua lac quan, nhifng
dap ifng difdc n h u cau p h a t trien cua
Viet Nam
Ben cgnh do, ve ly thuyet, v i n co the
c6 mot hiidng thif ba p h a t trien ngoai
mong muo'n trong quan he kinh te giiia
hai nifdc, do la hudng trien vgng phdt
trien quan he kinh te song phiicfng giifa
hai nifdc se chgm, tri tre, do co nhieu
bie'n dong ldn, ngUdc chieu trong quan
he song phifdng, trong tifng nifdc, va ca trong bdi canh qudc te
T r e n cd sei n g h i e n ciiu va so s a n h
ba hifdng p h a t t r i e n q u a n he kinh te Viet N a m - Hoa Ky, chiing toi cho rang, Viet N a m can chii ddng p h a t trien cac mo'i q u a n he hdp tac kinh te vdi Hda Ky t h e e kich b a n thii hai Tai sad va diia t r e n cd sd nad de dii bao cac kich b a n nhif vay? Chiing toi diia vao viec p h a n tich nhiing n h a n to' tac dong nhif sau:
3 Mgt so nhdn to tdc dgng tdi quan he Viet-My
Dii bao t r i e n vong p h a t t r i e n quan
he k i n h te Viet N a m - Hoa Ky theo nhiing h u d n g kich b a n t r e n deu phai diia t r e n nhiing cd sd k h a c h q u a n ve sii p h a t t r i e n k i n h te - xa hoi Viet
N a m va Hoa Ky, ve thiic t r a n g va trien vong q u a n he song phifdng, ve nhiing t h a c h thiic, nhiing k h a nang, tiem liic, dieu kien p h a t trien cua moi nifdc va boi c a n h qud'c te Nhiing n h a n te' n a y c6 t h e difdc t r i n h bay nhif sau
a) Nhdn to've phia Viet Nam
Hien nay, chiing t a c6 mot ye'u to'
r a t t h u a n ldi cho dtf bao trien vong
q u a n he k i n h te Viet N a m - Hoa Ky,
do la D a n g Cong s a n Viet N a m dang
c h u a n bi tie'n h a n h Dai hoi lan thii XI Difdi a n h s a n g cua Dai hoi Dang, Viet
N a m se c6 c h u a n miic p h a t trien
m a n h me hdn chd t h a p ky tdi Chiing tdi cho r i n g , n h a n d a n Viet Nam va
n h i e u doi tac k i n h te cua Viet Nam mdng mud'n cac Nghi quye't cua Dai hoi D a n g se tao n e n bifdc p h a t trien
m a n h me, ben viing theo hifdng tie'p tuc cai each k i n h te, md ciia (ben
Trang 5trong va ben ngeai), n h i m t a n g cifdng
siic m a n h npi liic t r o n g nifdc va sii
d u n g to'i da n h a n to' q u a n he quo'c te
cho sii p h a t t r i e n cua Viet N a m
Kinh te Viet N a m tif khi thiic hien
Doi mdi de'n nay da p h a t trien t h u a n ldi
hdn trifdc dd, nhUng v i n cdn tdn dong
va gap nhieu kho k h a n thach thiic ldn
can vUdt qua Do la nhiing van de ve
p h a t trien ben viing, tai chinh tien te,
lam phat, cai each doanh nghiep n h a
nifdc, khu viic kinh te t u n h a n chifa
difdc chii trpng diing miic va binh dang,
van de lad dong va viec lam cham difdc
giai quye't, trinh do ceng nghe t h a p cua
nhieu nganh, k h a n a n g canh t r a n h
qudc te thap, hieu qua k i n h te - xa hoi
tha'p, m a t can do'i n g a n h va dia
phifdng, t h a m nhiing
Ben canh n h a n td' k i n h te, nhiing
n h a n to' khac nhif dn dinh chinh tri
-xa hoi, an n i n h quoc gia, cac mo'i q u a n
he quoc te cua Viet N a m , q u a n he vdi
Hoa Ky, ciing nhif bdi c a n h quo'c te
noi chung, can difdc duy t r i p h a t
trien dap ifng n h u cau p h a t t r i e n cua
Viet N a m trong nhiing n a m tdi
De p h a t t r i e n hdp tac k i n h te vdi
My nhif la m e t doi tac q u a n trpng bac
n h a t , Viet N a m can t u a n t h u n g u y e n
t i c p h a t t r i e n v u n g l a n h tho, p h a t
trien ifng d u n g cong nghe, p h a t t r i e n
n g a n h nghe, san p h a m mot each
nghiem ngat, khoa hoc" de tao t h e
p h a t t r i e n ddng bo, lien h o a n cua toan
bo n e n k i n h te quo'c d a n mot each
m a n h me va ben viing Viet N a m c i n
chii dong thiic d i y q u a n he xua't n h a p
k h a u triic tie'p vdi cac do'i tac My,
khong thong qua t r u n g gian .; " '
Vdi nhiing dieu kien t r e n , co t h e dii
doan, kim nggch xudt nhdp khdu giiia
Viet N a m va Hoa Ky se t a n g cao, tdc
do t a n g trifdng k i m ngach se d a t h a i con so', k h d a n g 30-45% h a n g n a m Ve
x u a t k h a u , V i e t N a m v a n x u a t sieu sang My, cd cau m a t h a n g va c h u n g loai h a n g hoa co n h i i n g t h a y doi so vdi trifdc day, cac m a t h a n g co gia tri gia
t a n g cao t a n g len, c h u n g loai h a n g hoa p h e n g phii hdn trifdc; cac loai
h a n g hda gia cdng, c6 gia tri gia t a n g
t h a p giam d a n ty trpng trdng xua't
k h a u s a n g Hoa Ky H a n g hda Viet
N a m CO k h a n a n g c a n h t r a n h t r e n thi trifdng t h e gidi va H e a Ky, Viet N a m
t h a y doi d i n h i n h a n h va trci t h a n h nifdc x u a t k h a u h a n g hda difdc ifa chuong s a n g Hoa Ky
H a n g hda n h a p k h a u tii My t a n g len: Nhiing h a n g may moc thie't bi thuoc cong nghe nguon can thiet cho
n h u c l u md rpng san xuat kinh doanh dich vu t a n g len dang ke; h a n g nguyen vat lieu t a n g (dap iing n h u c l u san xuat kinh ddanh, mpt p h i n ldn phuc vu gia cong x u a t k h a u nhif nhieu n a m trifdc); h a n g tieu dilng n h a p k h a u tif
My giam (do nhieu m a t h a n g tieu diing von trifdc day phai n h a p tif Hoa Ky, nay co the co difdc nhd p h a t trien san xuat cua cac cong ty Hoa Ky tai Viet Nam)
Ve quan he ddu tii: Hoa Ky chii
trpng d i u tif vao Viet N a m vi t h u difdc n h i e u ldi ich da t r u n g (kinh te, chinh tri, a n n i n h quoc phong, q u a n
he qud'c te ) va g i n sii hdp tac p h a t
t r i e n vdi Viet N a m vdi ldi ich quo'c gia
Trang 6SO 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
ciia My ci khu viic Dong Nam A, ciing
nhif ci Chau A - Thai Binh Difdng
Do vay My se tang cifdng dau tif
trong nhieu linh viic, nganh nghe
rpng k h i p cac dia phiidng ci Viet Nam,
cac dii an d i u tif se cd quy mo ldn,
trinh do cong nghe cao tao da va
dieu kien cho nen kinh te Viet Nam
phat trien cao va dn dinh trdng 15-20
nam tdi, d6 la vi ldi ich cua My va
ciing rat phii hdp ldi ich phat trien
ciia Viet Nam
Nhif vay co the dif doan ve mtfc dp
dau tif cua My vao Viet Nam ciing
tang manh ca ve quy mo lan chat
Iifdng trdng nhiing nam tdi Miic d i u
tif trung binh hang nam ciia Hda Ky
vao Viet Nam tang len se vdi hien
nay Teng d i u tif thiic hien tich liiy
lai cua Hoa Ky d Viet Nam de'n nam
2020 se dat khdang 30-35 ty USD,
trung binh hang nam khoang 3 ty
USD Chifa ke kha nang thu hiit ve'n
diu tif gian tie'p tif Hoa Ky se tang
len trong thdi ky de'n nam 2020
Cd the ndi, theo kich ban thii hai,
chiing ta co the dii doan d i u tif cua
My vao Viet Nam se tang len he't siic
nhanh chdng, vi vay, Viet Nam cin
phai tich ciic cau triic lai nen kinh te
de tie'p nhan FDI ttf Hoa Ky (va mpt
so' nifdc phat trien khac) mpt each co
hieu qua nhat
b) Nhiing nhdn tdvephia Hoa Ky
Theo chiing toi, nhiing nhan to' ve
phia Hoa Ky bao gom: nhiing nhan to
kinh te', chinh tri, an ninh, xa hpi, ben
trong nifdc My va lien quan de'n quan
he quo'c te, trong d6 c6 Viet Nam
Ve kinh te, co the dii doan, sau khi
vifdt qua khung hoang tai chinh -kinh te hien nay, nen -kinh te Hoa Ky
se phat trien theo mpt trong cac hif6ng sau day:
1) De bao ve ldi ich sorig con, duy tri dia vi sieu cifdng so' mpt the gidi
My c i n phai coi phat trien kinh te la nhiem vu so' 1 va do do, can tap trung toan bp siic manh quoc gia de khoi phuc va phat trien kinh te mpt each nhanh nhat va manh nhat My se phai cau triic lai nen kinh te, phat huy nhiing the manh vo'n cd ciia cac nganh dting d i u the gidi ciia My, to chtfc lai he tho'ng ngan hang tai chinh, de khong the lap lai nhiing sai lam dien ra trong nhiing nam qua, nang cao trinh do cong nghe (chat xam) ciia cac nganh san xuat, dieh vu
n h i m c6 kha nang canh tranh cao hdn tren thi triidng quoc te va ngay tren thi trifdng trong nifdc Trong quan he kinh te quoc te, My se tiep tuc chii trpng ky ke't FTA vcli cac nifdc de triic tie'p nang cao hieu qua kinh te - xa hpi ciia nifdc My, va nhif vay, viec diu tif va phat trien trao doi thifdng mai
se difdc thiic day manh qua difdng song phifdng, hdn la da phifdng Ddng thdi, My cung se tien tdi ky ket FTA vdi khu viic Nam My va khu viic chau
A - Thai Binh Difdng (nen tang la APEC), phat trien cac del tac xuyen Thai Binh Difdng, n h i m tao ra moi trifdng kinh te va pham vi anh hucing kinh te thuan ldi chd Hoa Ky
2) Vdi nhiing muc dfch nhif tren, nhifng Hoa Ky khong thiic hien difdc nhiing mong muon cau triic lai nen
Trang 7kinh te' va to chiic lai cac moi quan he
kinh te quo'c te cua minh (co the de
nhieu nguyen nhan ma My kheng tap
trung dUdc sifc manh quoc gia) Neu
nhif vay, nen kinh te ciia Hoa Ky lai e6
the quay trd lai gap nhiing khd khan
phiic tap nhu vtfa qua Va quan he
kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky co the rdi
vao kich ban thii ba khong mong mud'n
Tuy nhien, dieu nay khe co the xay
ra: Cac gdi kich clu cua Chfnh phii Hoa
Ky da lam cho khu viic san xua't lay lai
din kha nang tang trifdng, khu viic tai
chinh ciing da it nhieu difdc "ciiu vdt"
va viia difdc hai Vien cua Quoc hpi My
difa ra dii thao cai each he tho'ng tai
chinh, "difa pho' Wall vao khudn kho";
hdn niia, nen kinh te tif ban chii nghia
von c6 kha nang tii dieu chinh nhat
dinh, cac chu ky khung hoang it keo
dai hdn (kha nang khic phuc cad hdn,
nhanh hdn) Ddng thdi, cac nifdc ldn,
cac nhdm nifdc, nhif G-20 deu co nhiing
sii lien ke't de thao gd khd khan vifdt
qua khiing hoang, de phat trien chd
nen kinh te nifdc minh va cho kinh te
the gidi Trong dieu kien do, c6 the thay
trifdc, nen kinh te Hoa Ky se lay lai da
phat trien trong thdi gian tdi, nhifng
phat trien manh ye'u nhif the nae la
van de cin xem xet f ' •' • ''
Ve mat chinh tri vd an ninh, co the
thay, vdi xu, the phat trien ciia Hoa
Ky va chinh sach do'i ngoai ciia Chinh
quyen Obama hien nay, Hoa Ky se
khong thiic sii thiic hien chinh sach
doi ngoai hie'u chie'n, gay han vdi cac
nifdc khac tren the gidi trong thdi
gian trifdc m i t Hda Ky se gitt difdc sii
on dinh xa hpi trong nUdc, thi hanh
chinh sach quan he quo'c te mem deo,
CO tinh xay diing Nhif vay, c6 the cho ring, the gidi trong thap ky tdi c6 the
ft CO nguyen nhan dan de'n xung dot bao liic, khung bo', chie'n tranh huy diet, chie'n tranh hat nhan; the gidi se tap trung vao phat trien kinh te, bao dam on dinh chinh tri, giai quye't cac van de xa hpi, an sinh My va cac nifdc ldn se duy tri tinh hinh the gidi nhif vay, ft nhat la trong mpt thap ky trifdc m i t (chi co nhif vay, My, Trung Quoc va nhieu nifdc khac mdi co the deu CO ldi trifdc nhiing thach thifc cd the se de'n trong tifdng lai)
Nhif vay, trien vpng phat trien tich Clic cho Hoa Ky phai la, tap trung mpt thdi gian dai chd nhiem vu se' 1 cua quo'c gia la on dinh va phat trien manh
me nen kinh te, n h i m lay lai siic manh
va tang cifdng thiic liic diing diu the gidi; he tho'ng chinh tri vdi hai dang Cpng hda va Dan chu va cac nhdm ldi ich tap trung vao tang cifdng ldi ich va siic manh kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh que'c phdng My; co chien lifdc an ninh
va chfnh sach doi ngoai bao dam cho kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh quo'c phdng
CO mdi trifdng tich ciic de phat trien, tang cifdng hdp tac da dang vdi cac nifdc My Latinh, chau Au, Ddng Nam
A, Nam A, cd liia chpn vdi cac doi tac chie'n lifdc ci Dong Bac A, nham duy tri sii on dinh cua cac khu viic nay vi ldi fch phat trien cua My, khong xung dot ldi ich cua My, khdng chu trifdng dd'i dau trdng quan he vdi nhiing liic Iifdng the che khac; tat ca n h i m muc tieu trong mpt thdi gian nha't dinh tang
Trang 810 SO 06-2010 CHAU MY N G A Y N A Y
cifdng dUdc siic manh kinh te, chinh tri,
an ninh quoc phong ciia My
c) Nhdn to' lien quan de'n boi cdnh
quo'c te
Boi canh quo'c te phu thupe phan
ldn vao cac nhan to' quan he quo'c te
trong viec phan chia ldi ich kinh te,
chinh tri, an ninh quo'c te va cac khu
viic, cac nifdc ldn
The gidi, neu c6 the ndi, sau Chien
tranh Lanh, vtfa trai qua cupe khiing
hoang ldn nha't ttf Dai khung hoang
1929-1933, ciing nhif vtfa trai qua thdi
ky cang thang vdi chinh sach chd'ng
khiing bo' cua ciiu Tdng thdhg My G
Bush; dong thdi the gidi ciing chifng
kie'n sii phat trien manh me cua cac
nifdc Trung Quec, Brazil, Nga, An Dp,
cua sii md rpng chau Au Cac nifdc
Trung Quo'c, Brazil, Nga, An Dp deu
muon CO moi trifdng quo'c te on dinh
de tie'p tuc phat trien hdn niia, n h i m
vifdn len hdn niia; nhiing nifdc va khu
viic My, Nhat Ban, Chau Au deu ciing
mue'n co moi trifdng nhii vay de thoat
khoi khiing hoang, phuc hoi va phat
trien dat nifdc
Cac nUdc nho hdn khdng the khong
tan dung moi trifdng nay de phat trien
Viet Nam lai cang cin tan dung moi
trUdng nay de phat trien Viet Nam cin
phat huy te'i da npi liic, tan dung ifu
the la thanh vien ASEAN, APEC,
WTO de md rpng quan he kinh te vdi
Hoa Ky va cac nifdc ldn khac
C6 the ket luan r i n g , vdi kich ban
thif hai trien vpng hdp tac kinh te' vdi
Hoa Ky difdc neu tren, cac nhan to'
phat trien cua Viet Nam difdc danh
gia la kha thuan ldi Viet Nam cin
thay va tan dung dUdc nhan to' Hoa
Ky va nhan to' boi canh quoc te thuan ldi cho phat trien trong 15-20 nam tdi
III Dinh hifdng Chinh sach giai phap quan he kinh te
Phat trien hdp tac kinh te vdi Hoa
Ky theo kich ban thif hai, 15-20 nam tdi, mo'i quan he Viet - My se difa lai nhiing ldi fch gi cho hai nifdc, nhat la cho Viet Nam, se phu thupe rat nhieu vao nhiing dieu chinh mdi trong chinh sach quan he vdi Hoa Ky cua Viet Nam Chiing toi cho ring, Viet Nam cin CO hai hifdng dieu chinh chfnh sach quan trpng: 1/ Chinh sach giai phap quan he Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, va 2/ Chinh sach giai phap hoan thien ben trong Viet Nam de tang cifdng hdp tac kinh te co hieu qua cao vdi Hoa Ky Ca hai hifdng nay thupe tdng the chinh sach, chie'n lifdc phat trien kinh te - xa hei cua Viet Nam treng dai ban Trong phan nay, chiing toi chi chii yeu trinh bay hifdng chinh sach thtf nhat va khong trinh bay cac chfnh sach vi mo, nhif chfnh sach thu hiit d i u tu, chfnh sach thifdng mai
1 Dinh hudng chung quan he vdi Hoa Ky
Co the cho rang, chinh sach quan
he Viet - My gan day rat ccii md, dieu
do da difdc the hien treng Hpi dam giiia Tong thong G Bush vdi Chii tich Nguyen Minh Triet tai Washington D.C, ngay 22/6/2007 Tong thong G.Bush cho r i n g "Chiing toi muo'n co quan he to't vdi Viet Nam" Dap lai, Chu tich nifclc Nguyin Minh Triet da noi: "Hai dan toe Viet - My deu muo'n
Trang 9hoa binh, doan ke't, va hiiu nghi phai
cung n i m tay nhau di tdi tifdng lai"
v.i "Cach tie'p can cua chiing toi la hai
ben se tie'p tuc tang cifdng do'i thoai,
trao ddi de tang cifdng sii hieu bie't
l i n nhau Chiing toi deu rat khong
muon nhiing van de cdn khac biet gay
tac dpng anh hifdng khong tot de'n
mo'i quan he giiia hai dan tpc" Tdng
tho'ng Bush cho ring, da co cupe thao
luan "thang t h i n va ndng am" vdi
Chu tich Nguyin Minh Triet
Nhif vay, van de quan trgng ddu
tien cho viec md rpng quan he kinh te
toan dien mpt each nang dpng, hieu
qua va ben viing giiia Viet Nam va
Hoa Ky phai la viec thie't lap quan he
hiiu nghi, hieu bie't va tin cay lan
nhau giiia hai nifdc
Vdn de quan trgng thii hai la quan
he Viet - My cin difdc thiic hien tren
tat ca cac kenh quan he va cac linh
viic, cac dien dan, nhif ta't ca cac nifdc
than thien tren the gidi quan he vdi
nhau, bao gdm: 1) Cac kenh quan he
gap gd cap cao giiia cac nha lanh dao
hai nifdc (Chinh phii, Quoc hpi va
nhanh Tif phap), cac nhom ldi ich, cac
doanh nghiep, gidi truyen thong, dai
hpc, quan he giao luu nhan dan ; 2)
Cac mo'i quan he trong cac linh viic
ngoai giao, kinh te, dao tao giao due,
van hda xa hpi, an ninh chinh tri quan
sii, khoa hpc cong nghe moi trifdng,
chdng khiing bd ; 3) Thong qua cac
dien dan cua Lien Hiep qudc, cac td
chdc da phifdng nhu APEC, ASEAN,
quan he vdi cac nifdc 16n, tang cUdng
sii dn dinh d khu viic Ddng Nam A va
chau A - Thai Binh Dudng
Vd'n de thti ba: ddi mdi nhan thiic
vl moi quan he Viet - My
Vi mat nhdn thiic: Nhiing tac dpng
cua chfnh sach doi ngoai cua My va moi quan he My - Viet co ldi hay c6 hai, ft hay nhieu de'n Viet Nam va moi quan he My - Viet phu thuoc rat nhieu vao nhan thtfc ciia ca hai ben, nhat la cua Viet Nam Neu Viet Nam nhan thifc diing va co chfnh sach hdp
ly doi vdi chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia
My, thi Viet Nam co the thu difdc nhieu ldi ich hdn cho sii- phat trien eua dat niidc
Niidc My hien nay dang dp dung mgt nhdn thiic mdi theng qua qua
Chien lifdc An ninh qudc gia® mdi (National Security Strategy - May 2010), My dang thay ddi trong each tie'p can va tfng xii trong quan he quoc
te, sii dung cac bien phap doi thoai, ling nghe, da phifdng, hdp tac giam cang thang, tang cifdng long tin vdi cac nifdc va cac khu viic
Hdn 15 ndm qua Viet Nam dd ddn
dp dung nhifng nhdn thifc mdi de thie't lap vd phdt trien cdc quan he vdi
My Viet Nam che ring, cai thien
quan he vdi My la met trong nhiing dieu kien he't siic quan trpng de phat trien kinh te - xa hpi va nang cao vi the, vai tro ciia minh tren triidng quoc
te Mac du My dang gap nhieu khd khan, nhiing My van la ciidng qud'c kinh te se" mpt the gidi trong nhieu thap ky niia, va My la ddi tac rat quan trpng cua Viet Nam
2 Ve nhiirng chu tritdng, chinh sdch cua Viet Nam trong quan he
vdi My
Trang 1012 SO 06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
1) ChU triidng, chinh sdch cua Ddng
vd Nhd niidc Viet Nam la rat ro rang ve
quan he vdi Hoa Ky Trong budi tie'p Bp
trifdng Bp Thifdng mai Hoa Ky Carlos
M Gutierrez cuoi nam 2009, Thu tifdng
Chfnh phii Nguyen Tan Diing da noi:
'Viet Nam mong muon Hoa Ky trd
thanh ban hang so' mpt, nha diu tif ldn
nhat tai Viet Nam"
2) Theo chiing toi, cin cu the boa
hdn nda chu trifdng, chinh sach cua
Viet Nam treng quan he vdi Hoa Ky,
chiing phai trci thanh chfnh tho'ng va
c6 he tho'ng Chiing toi neu mpt so' y
kien sau: (1) Ve quan diem, cin coi
hdp tac vdi My la nhan to' quan trpng
bac nha't, cd ban trong phat trien kinh
te - xa hpi ciia Viet Nam, (2) Ve chinh
sach, trong quan he vdi My, phai coi
My la do'i tac chie'n lUdc quan trpng
bac nhat cua Viet Nam; nhanh chong
ky ket FTA vdi My; cac quan he khac
cin dupc nang t i m tifdng xifng, hdp ly
de bao ve ldi ich phat trien cua Viet
Nam (cac quan he an ninh quan sii,
chinh tri, ); cin hpc tap kinh nghiem
ciia cac nifdc trong quan he vdi My (vf
du Trung Quo'c, Dong Nam A, Dong
Bic A), thiic hi§n nguyen t i c cac ben
thif ba thay khong bi anh hifdng de'n
ldi ich khi Viet Nam day manh va md
rpng quan he chie'n lifdc vdi My
Nhiing y kie'n nay difdc cu the hdn
nhif sau:
Ve quan diem hgp tdc kinh te: Viet
Nam cin chu dpng coi quan he vdi Hoa
Ky nhif la mpt quan he quan trpng bac
nha't trong quan he kinh te qudc te, va
la quan he quan trpng bac nha't, cd ban
trong phat trien kinh te - xa hpi cua Viet Nam, ddng thdi ciing coi trpng cac mo'i quan he vdi cae ben thtf ba khac
Vi thiic te hien nay My da va se chie'm
ty trpng ldn bac nhat trong cdc yeu td
ddu vdo cua nen kinh te Viet Nam:
Vo'n (vo'n FDI difng hang diu d Viet Nam, vo'n d i u tif gian tie'p se rat ldn); Cong nghe, may mdc thie't bi, bi quye't
quan ly, dao tao tri thtfc va cdc yeu td
ddu ra: thi trifdng tieu thu hang hda
dtfng hang d i u ciia Viet Nam , -\ :
Vi dinh hiidng chinh sdch: Vdi
quan diem tren, c i n nang t i m quan
he, nhif da difdc khang dinh qua cac eupc gap thifdng dfnh Viet - My, len hdp tac toan dien, n h i m tang cifdng ldi ich va nang cad vi the cua Viet Nam C i n coi md rpng quan he toan dien vdi My la' viec binh thifdng (nhieu nifdc tren the gidi dang ce quan he tdan dien vdi My cao hdn Viet Nam) va My phai la ddi tac chie'n lifdc quan trpng bac nhat cua Viet Nam
Ve cdc gidi phdp quan he vdi Hoa
Ky: chiing toi cho r i n g , trong quan he
vdi Hoa Ky, Viet Nam cin co:
a) Chinh sdch ngogi giao: thdn thien
vd da dgng, ttf cho co quan he thu dich
trong chien tranh (giiia nhan dan Viet Nam vdi nhiing liic Iifdng ehu ehien treng chfnh quyen va xa hpi My, khong phai vdi nhan dan My), chuyen sang quan he doi tac, cung co ldi
b) Chinh sdch hdp tdc: todn dien
Trong Unh viic kinh te: nhanh chdng tien tdi ky ke't FTA vdi My, diy
manh xua't nhap khau, diu tu, chuyen giao cong nghe mdi, xanh
sach Vi an ninh qudn sii, chinh tri