Slide research ideas and econometric models dự báo kinh tế và phân tích dữ liệu

A Logistic Regression Model of Drop out of High School 2.. A Multinomial Logistic Regression Model of Determinants of Divorce 5.. A Logistic Regression Model of Drop out of High School

Research Ideas and econometric models

Nguyễn Hoàng Bảo

Outline

1 A Logistic Regression Model of Drop out of

High School

2 A Logistic Model of Rural–Urban Migration

3 Choice of domestic or foreign product

4 A Multinomial Logistic Regression Model of

Determinants of Divorce

5 Who receives remittances

6 How to construct demand for a single good

7 Who smokes cigarettes

1 A Logistic Regression Model of

Drop out of High School

• Droup out of school is, of course, not occurred

randomly.

• There are many factors which might affect the

problem of drop out prematurely.

• Dependent variable: Drop out? (Y=1)

• Independent variables: If the positive/negative

sign of the specific explanatory variable means

increase/decrease the probability of dropout and if the question mark of the specific explanatory

variable means that there is no clear pattern

There are four groups of explanatory variables

Individual characteristics

• Gender (?)

• Age (+)

• Intellectual Quality Index (IQ) (-)

• Bad health/Malnutritional status (+)

• Grade repetition (+)

• Indulgence in playing (+)

• Child work (+)

• Married child (+)

• Pedagogical techniques used (?)

• Condition of school building (-)

• Availability of learning materials (textbooks) (-)

• Quality of learning materials (-)

• Characteristics of head of school (?)

• Hours and days that school is opened (-)

• Number of pupils in the class, and/or teachers/students ratio, space for each pupils (proxy measurement of quality of schooling) (-)

Regional characteristics

• Urban/rural (-)

• Kinh/ethnics (-)

• Use/do not use Vietnamese language (-)

• No demand for studying (+)

• Hiện nay, hiện trạng đất nước thay đổi, nhưng với chính sách xã hội hóa giáo dục, liệu những mảnh đời bất hạnh vì bỏ học, có ai quan tâm không? Ngoài chúng ta ra còn ai nữa không? Chính quyền địa phương hả, hỏi họ thử coi, họ trả lời vấn đề này ra sao?

2 A Logistic Model of Rural–Urban

Migration

•

Life migration equation

R

n

t

rt U

U

dt

dt

e t

Y

C e

t Y

0

0

0

)(

)(

ω ω

3 Choice of domestic or foreign

4 A Logistic Regression Model of

• Being single of relatives

• Marital status of parents

• Job characteristics (out of sight, out of mind)

• Social ties

5 Who receives remittances

• Self–adjustment mechanism

• Community and family spirit

5 Who receives remittances

• Household size (-)

• I head male? (Yes=1) (-)

• Is head employed? (-) (causality flows?)

• Regional effects (Ho Chi Minh, Hue, and Da Nang)

• Education spending per capita (+)

• Health spending per capita (+)

• Age of head of household (+)

• Per cent household of working age (-)

• Number of children (-)

• Urban (+)

6 How to construct demand for a

single good

Demand function (QD)

• Price (-)

• Price of substitution products (+)

• Price of complementary products (-)

• Income per capita (?)

Characteristics of good

• Durable or undurable good

• Expensive or unexpensive good

• Storage or nonstorage good

• Fashionable or unfashionable good

• Necessary or unnecessary good

• Inferior, common, and luxury good

• Material or spirit good

• Cultural or non–cultural values

• Standardized or unstandardized good

Rich/poor response to the demand

For the common products, when income increases, the poor may consume more and the rich may consume less (rice)

Demand function (1)

lnQ D = a + b j (P j /P i ) + … + b k (P k /P i ) + c ln(Y/P i ) +

other variables

Pj …Pk are the price of other products

Pi is the price of rice

y is total expenditure or income per capita

lnPi.lny captures the structural change of consumption

effects

Pindex is the consumer price index

Elasticity of demand with respect to

its own price

E = (%ΔQD)/ (%ΔP)

If E=-0.2, when price increases 1%, demand decreases 0.2%

Demand of rice with respect to its own

price and income in Vietnam

Elasticity of demand of rice

with respect to price income Vietnam -0.35 0.16

Urban -0.45 -0.41

Rural -0.20 0.27

Gasolines Chicken Cigarettes Beef

Pork Wheat

1.36 1.06 0.86 0.45 0.18 -0.36

7 Who smokes cigarettes