nghiên cứu đánh giá tính dễ bị tổn thương do biến đổi khí hậu đối với sản xuất nông nghiệp. áp dụng thí điểm cho một số tỉnh vùng đồng bằng sông hồng

The scientific significance of the thesis In term of academy, the climate change vulnerability assessment method has been supplemented and completed, especially focus much on community l

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION

AND TRAINING

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

VIETNAM ACADEMY FOR WATER RESOURCES

HA HAI DUONG

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ON AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION PILOT APPLICATION FOR SOME PROVINCES IN THE RED RIVER DELTA

SUMMARY OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY THESIS

Specialization: Water Resources Engineering

Code : 62 58 02 12

HANOI, 2014

This work has been completed at:

VIETNAM ACADEMY FOR WATER RESOURCES

Scientific supervisors:

1 Prof., Dr Tran Thuc - Vietnam Institute of

Meteorology Hydrology and Environment

2 Prof., Dr Lars Ribbe – Cologne University of

Applied Science, Germany

Judge 1: Assoc., Prof., Dr Tran Viet On

Water Resources University

Judge 2: Assoc., Prof., Dr Hoang Thai Dai

Hanoi University of Agriculture

Judge 3: Assoc., Prof., Dr Nguyen Van Tinh

Directorate of Water Resources - MARD

The Thesis shall be defended against State level thesis assessment council held at: Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, No 171 Tay Son street, Dong Da district, Hanoi, Vietnam

At …… hours, on ……day… month… 2014

The Thesis can be further referred to at:

- National Library of Vietnam;

- Library of Vietnam Academy for Water Resources;

- Library for Institute for Water and Environment

II The scientific significance of the thesis

In term of academy, the climate change vulnerability assessment method has been supplemented and completed, especially focus much on community level;

Provide a set of indicator for assessing vulnerability to climate change on agriculture production;

Provide a process to calculate sub-indices and main indices

of climate change vulnerability index;

Provide a basic methodology to develop the support software that to be recommended to apply for other relevant research

III The practical significance of the thesis

Establish a method and tool supporting for assessment and determination of the most vulnerable province and applied practically for 04 provinces as Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Hai Phong and Hai Duong;

Pilot application for 04 provinces as Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Hai Phong and Hai Duong to determine which province is the most vulnerable to climate change

IV The new points of the thesis

Establish a method with the unified process to assess the vulnerability to climate change on agriculture production;

Establish the sub-indicators and main indicators of vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop;

Develop the set of indices and maps of climate change vulnerability on water demand for crop in pilot provinces;

Develop the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support Software (CVASS)

CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE

METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING VULNERABILITY TO

CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the result of literature review on the methods and frameworks for assessing vulnerability to climate change in Vietnam and over the world, in general, it is recognized that the approach of most of vulnerability method and framework divided into 3 categories as following:

1.1 Top-down approach

Top-down approach focuses much on climate-risks assessment for long-term such as decade and normally to year 2100 and based on climate change scenarios

Typical methods and frameworks using this approach include 7-steps framework of IPCC, assessment method of NOAA

1.2 Bottom-up approach

This approach has been applied in the recent years and supporting for top-down approach due to it based on local adaptive strategies and indigenous technologies and knowledge responding to current climate change This approach is very useful for strategy development and policy implementation

Typical methods and frameworks using this approach include framework of National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), 5-steps method of America International and Cooperation Agency and Vietnam institutes and organizations such as Vietnam Red Cross, Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, and Institute for Water and Environment…

1.3 General approach

The combination of above two approaches is called general approach and this has been applied in the Australian government program for climate-risk assessment and adaptation plan in Mandurah, A Guide to Community Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment and Action of Canadian International Agency, vulnerability assessment method based on MASSCOTE (FAO) and framework of Stockholm Environment Institute and Indian Technology Institute

CHAPTER II DEVELOPMENT OF METHOD AND PROCESSES FOR ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER DEMAND FOR CROP

2.1 Development of method for assessing the vulnerability to

climate change on water demand for crop

2.1.1 Selection of vulnerability concept

In term of concept, the thesis selected vulnerability concept

of IPCC (2001) to develop method and vulnerability assessment processes Therefore, according to this concept, vulnerability shall be expressed by the function of Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and Adaptation Capacity (AC)

V = f(E, S, AC)

2.1.2 Approach for method development

The development of method for assessing the vulnerability to change has been based on problem solving diagram as following: (Figure 2.1):

Figure 2.1: Problem solving diagram for method development

2.1.3 Method for climate change vulnerability assessment

According to vulnerability concept of IPCC, problem solving diagram mentioned above and the requirements of the method, the

thesis proposed a 5-steps method for assessing vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop as following:

Figure 2.2: Climate change vulnerability assessment method

2.2 Processes and content of the method for assessing

vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop

2.2.1 Step 1: Preparation

Collection of secondary data;

Identifying assessment scope: can be divided into two regions: (i) the region affected by climate change and sea level rise and (ii) the region affected by climate change without sea level rise

Selection of climate change and sea level rise scenarios: Applying scenarios corresponding to medium emission (B2) for the method as well as pilot assessment

Screening main impacts of climate change: Screening impacts of climate change in the research area is an important step to primarily determine the impacts of climate change in the pilot areas before conducting field assessment

2.2.2 Step 2: Field assessment

- Preparation for field assessment including the activities such as: (i) Development of field assessment proposal, (ii) Selection of climate change and sea level rise scenarios; (iii) Identifying assessment scope; (iv) Preparation of tables and questionnaires for

data collection; and (v) Preparation of tools for assessment and data collection at community level

Processes for assessment at community level: Include following

activities:

Activity 1: Work with locality (province, district and commune); Activity 2: Establish partners group and to train them;

Activity 3: Document and data collection; and

Activity 4: Discuss with partner groups and local people

2.2.3 Step 3: Identifying vulnerability elements

The content of step 3 is to collect data for calculating Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and Adaptive Capacity (AC) which will

be used for constructing vulnerability index in step 4 The result of step 3 is collected data tables of sub-variables of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

2.2.4 Step 4: Constructing vulnerability index

- Calculating vulnerability index;

- Developing vulnerability maps and charts

2.2.5 Step 5: Assessing vulnerability to climate change

The content of this step is to determine which province/district is the most vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop and then proposing adaptive measures

2.3 Scientific research and algorithm applied to build

Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support Software

2.3.1 Assessment of vulnerability by index method

The climate vulnerability index consists of three main indices including Exposure index (E), Sensitivity index (S) and Adaptive Capacity index (AC) and their sub-indices

2.3.2 Developing process to calculate vulnerability index;

The calculation of vulnerability index, main indices and indices is presented by the diagram as following:

sub-Figure 2.3: The diagram to calculate climate vulnerability index 2.3.2.1 Normalization of collected data

Collected data had been normalized by using Equation (1)

and started at the lowest level as E 11 ÷ E 1n , E n1 ÷ E nn , S 11 ÷ S 1n , S n1 ÷

S nn , and AC 11 ÷ AC 1n , AC n1 ÷ AC nn :

2.3.2.2 Identifying the weight of indices

After normalizing collected data, it is necessary to identify

the weight for each sub-index In the scope of the thesis, the weights were identified by unequal weight method basing on the quantity of sub-variables

2.3.2.3 Calculating sub-variable indices

As mentioned above, each main-variable could comprise of

different sub-variables and each sub-variable could comprise of

different correlative components, therefore, sub-variables indices can

be calculated by Equation 2 as following:

2.3.3 Process to identify and calculate vulnerability index

According to contents and the equations mentioned above, the process to identify and calculate climate vulnerability index as well as the indices of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity is as followings:

Figure 2.4: Process to calculate climate vulnerability index

2.3.4 Identifying Exposure index (E)

Exposure index consists of 3 sub-indices as (i) Climate extreme event (E1); (ii) Change in climatic variables (E2); and (iii) Sea level rise (E3) Each sub-index is expressed by the indicators as following:

Sea level

rise (E 3 ) Sea level rise (E31) cm Statistic CC Scenarios

2.3.5 Identifying Sensitivity index (S)

Sensitivity index consists of 4 sub-indices as (i) Land use (S1); (ii) Water sources (S2); (iii) Labour and income (S3); and (iv) Affected by climate extreme events (S4) Each sub-index is expressed by the indicators as following:

Sub-component Indicator Unit Source

Present 2030

Land use (S 1 ) Land use for crop (S11) ha Statistic LUP

Irrigated land use for crop (S12) ha Statistic IDP

Water sources

(S 2 )

Total water flow at headwork (S21) m3 Calculation Calculation Water demand for crop (S22) m3 Calculation Calculation Operational effectiveness of head-works

Maximum length of saline intrusion (S ) ha Calculation Calculation

2.3.6 Identifying Adaptive Capacity index (AC)

Adaptive Capacity index consists of 3 sub-indices as (i) Infrastructure (AC1); (ii) Economy (AC2); and (iii) Society (AC3) Each sub-index is expressed by the indicators as following:

2.4 Development of vulnerability assessment support

software

2.4.1 Basic functions of the software:

Data base: Include all information, data, basic maps for

calculating vulnerability index and developing vulnerability maps and charts

Calculation function: to calculate the indices of exposure

(E), sensitivity (S), adaptive capacity (AC) and climate vulnerability index (CVI)

Result display function: to display the table of indices, and

relevant vulnerability maps and charts

2.4.2 Block diagram of CVASS software

Figure 2.5: Block diagram of CVASS software

CHAPTER III THE RESULTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABITILY ASSESSMENT ON WATER DEMAND FOR CROP IN SOME PILOT PROVINCES IN THE RED

RIVER DELTA 3.1 Selection of pilot areas and climate change scenarios

3.1.1 Pilot areas selection

Based on the natural conditions of each sub-area, the impacts

of climate change and sea level rise in each province/city as well as

the availability and feasibility of required input data, the following

provinces have been selected for pilot assessment:

- Area 1: Nam Dinh province (Giao Xuan and Giao Lac commune, Giao Thuy district) and Hai Phong province (Tan Trao commune, Kien Thuy district);

- Area 2: Ha Nam province (Lien Son commune, Kim Bang district) and Hai Duong province (Tien Tien and Phuong Hoang commune, Thanh Ha district)

3.1.2 Milestones for pilot application

Currently, all provinces in Vietnam have established development strategy, socioeconomic development plan as well as agriculture development plan for the year of 2030; moreover, most of these provinces (including pilot provinces) have the Action Plan to responds to Climate change on agriculture sector Therefore, the

milestones for pilot assessment are at present and in 2030

3.2 The results of climate change vulnerability assessment at

provincial level

3.2.1 Index and map of exposure (E) at provincial level

Table 3.1: Exposure index at provincial level

Remark: (Rank 1  4: High  Low)

Figure 3.1: Exposure map at provincial level

3.2.2 Index and map of sensitivity (S) at provincial level

Table 3.2: Sensitivity index at provincial level

Remark: (Rank 1  4: High  Low)

Figure 3.2: Sensitivity map at provincial level

3.2.3 Index and map of adaptive capacity (AC) at provincial level

Table 3.3: Adaptive Capacity index at provincial level

Remark: (Rank 1  4: High  Low)

Figure 3.3: Adaptive Capacity map at provincial level

3.2.4 Index and map of climate change vulnerability (CVI) at

Remark: (Rank 1  4: High  Low)

Figure 3.4: Climate Vulnerability map at provincial level

3.3 The results of climate change vulnerability assessment at community level

3.3.1 The result of index calculation

Table 3.5: The indices of E, S, AC and CVI at community level in present

3.3.2 Climate change vulnerability at community level

Figure 3.5: Exposure chart at community level

Figure 3.6: Sensitivity chart at community level

Figure 3.6: Adaptive Capacity chart at community level

Figure 3.7: Climate Vulnerability chart at community level

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMEND FOR FURTHER STUDY

on water demand for crop

In order to support to vulnerability assessment, a tool (Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support Software - CVASS) has been also developed Besides, the set of 30 indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity had proposed for calculating climate vulnerability index

Depending on scale and scope of pilot assessment, some typical indicators had calculated by supplementary tool and mathematic model before using CVASS software

Based on equations (1), (2), (3) and (4) with the set of indicators mentioned above, use CVASS software to calculate the indices of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and climate vulnerability index With these indices, the development of vulnerability map and chart has simplified by using CVASS software

in order to provide the results with more visual for vulnerability assessment