Vietnam coastal cities and potential impacts of sea level rise pps

Pham Si Liem Institute for Urban Studies & Infrastructure Development.Hanoi-Vietnam Email: tonghoixdvn@yahoo.com.vn ABSTRACT: More than twenty Vietnam coastal cities with a population

Vietnam coastal cities and potential impacts of sea level rise

Dr Pham Si Liem

Institute for Urban Studies & Infrastructure Development.Hanoi-Vietnam

Email: tonghoixdvn@yahoo.com.vn

ABSTRACT: More than twenty Vietnam coastal cities with a population of ten million are

directly subjected to the impacts of a rising sea level As this is a very slow-onset event, the risk perception of the society is weak In this context, the paper explores a range of issues related to disaster vulnerability and identifies priorities for disaster prevention and preparedness for living with risk

KEY WORDS: Sea level rise, Urban vulnerability, Adaptation policy, Information gathering and

exchange

Introduction

Sea level rise is a complex phenomenon

related to the global climate change

Although the mean increases in sea level

All abovementioned major impacts of sea level rise once occurred will engender huge negative effects to the development of Vietnam in the future

rise associated with the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate’s Change (IPCC) non

mitigation scenarios are modest-ranging

from 0.2 to 0.5 meters during this century,

future sea level rise is not expected to be

globally uniform Some regions, including

South-East Asia, show a sea level rise

substantially more than the global

average

This paper focuses on the potential

impacts of sea level rise on Vietnam

coastal cities and explores the concept of

a desirable urban adaptation policy

required to cope with this profound and

durable disaster

Vietnam cities facing sea level rise

By 2007, 27.4 per cent (23.4 million)of

the Vietnam’s population lived in urban

areas, and of this urban population almost

75% lived in coastal and delta zones

Vietnam has long coast ( 3260km) and a

dense river network, including the Red

River and the Mekong River that originate

in catchements in other countries and

create large river deltas (17,000km2 and

59,000km2, respectively), characterized

by an accerelated urbanization

Climate change concerns Vietnam deeply

The recent study of Dasgupta and others

In difference from others short-term natural disasters, sea level rise is a very slow-onset and irreversible event that demands long-term response such as coastal cities relocation to higher land, protection of coastal and near coastal low-lying urban areas by increasing the robustness of infrastructural designs and systematic investments in seawalls and dykes, improving water supply, drainage and sanitation The impacts of sea level rise on rural areas will generate an additional migration of people to cities, therefore an efficient demographic management will be needed Briefly, given that the forthcoming sea level rise could massively impact the society and be truly national in scope, there is a need

to formulate an overall proactive adaptation policy as suggested by the United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Preliminary considerations for Vietnam adaptation policy

The effects of sea level rise vary greatly among countries, even for countries in a same region, therefore adaptation efforts must be tailored to specific needs of Vietnam However,

ranks Vietnam among the top five

countries most affected by one meter rise

in sea level with 10.79% of population,

10.21% of GDP,10.74% of urban areas

and 28.67% of wetlands affected.Many of

the largest cities of Vietnam such as

Hochiminh City, Haiphong, Hue, Danang,

Nhatrang, Vungtau are directly subjected

to the impacts of sea level rise

Vietnam ratified the Kyoto Protocol since

1999 A Climate Change Office has been

set up within the Ministry of Natural

Resource and Environment (MONRE)

Recently, the Science, Technology and

Environment Committee of the

Parliament examines at first time the

impacts of climate change on the national

development sustainability MONRE

actually is preparing a national targeted

program to cope with climate change and

sea level rise for the period 2009-2015

Impacts of sea level rise on Vietnam

urban areas

Costal and near - coastal low-lying urban

areas are particularly vulnerable to sea

level rise related hazards, including:

- Total submersion

adaptation policy has to focus on general principles rather than specific details Given the strong decentralization in Vietnam, each coastal provincial government has the capacity to develop and to adopt its appropriate region-specific coping programs

As the sea level rise is a long-lasting process, and there are some uncertainties regarding IPCC results, the adaptation policy must be thought

of as an ongoing learning by doing participatory process, including planning, implementation, monitoring and adjustment

Nobel laureate Tom Schelling has argued that the best way for developing countries to adapt to climate change is

to develop Thus, Vietnam disaster adaptation planning should be part of national development planning and should be discussed at local and national levels, and urban hazard mitigation needs to be seen as one goal within integrated coastal zone management

For Vietnam, sea level rise risk is a serious risk Therefore, this source of risk should be sufficiently accounted for in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in

- Flooding

- Erosion

- Salinization of ground and surface water

Total submersion will be likely the

destiny of the Camau peninsula, that will

cause a land loss of 8000km2 and the

resettlement of a population exceeding 1.5

million inhabitants

By virtue of being located at riversides

and low lying plains, especially at the

Mekong Delta, many cities have been

subjected to periodic flooding since its

early days At coastal areas flooding can

occur for a range of sometimes interacting

reasons,including storm surges induced

by typhoons, land subsidence due to

excessive ground water withdrawal

(Hanoi), high tide (Haiphong, Hochiminh

City), intense local precipitation in areas

with poor drainage, sedimentation of river

estuaries Associated with the rising sea

level, flooding will become catastrophic

and cause dramatic damage to urban

areas

Variations in river and coastal flow, storm

surges and sea level can cause significant

erosion of river banks and sea beaches

leading to land loss, relocation of urban

quarters and degradation of beach

development planning and in appraisals

of infrastructure investment and risk management projects Then, properly developed specific CBA associated with political, economical, social and technological (PEST) analysis should

be integral elements of decisionmaking and may contribute to improve the allocation of scarce resources to the most profitable and least risky undertakings

Raising societal perception and preparedness to sea level rise is needed but should be undertaken carefully step

by step in view to avoid scattering panic among the public

As sea level rise is global, there is a need for regional and international cooperation in forecasting, information gathering and exchange In this regard, are involved not only United Nations, World Bank and others intergovernmental organizations For the same purpose many institutions of civil society such as NGOs and CBOs can provide a bridge between researchers and stakeholders of different countries

Conclusion

resources that are used for tourism

The sea level rise also causes salt water

penetration far upstream in dry season,

especially during droughts, and

salinization of coastal ground water This

event will endanger water supply of all

coastal cities, including Hochiminh City

and Hanoi

Sea level rise poses a great threat to Vietnam coastal cities and will affect the country macroeconomy The disaster adaptation policy should be considered as a continuing learning in doing process The best way for Vietnam to cope with sea level rise is

to develop with the support of international response organizations into a developed country in the near future

References

The World Bank.2003 Building Safer Cities The Future of Disaster Risk

The World Bank.2008 Global Monitoring Report MDGs and the Environment Agenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Development