The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change phần 10 potx

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• Sustained pressure on regional aggressors Several regionalstates have demonstrated that they will respond to concerted in-ternational pressure Iran and Libya, for example, have both re-duced their support of terrorism to cultivate the goodwill of Eu-ropean states If Russia and China became more favorable toU.S views, regional states would have additional disincentives toproliferate or attack their neighbors.

• Reduced military effectiveness of aggressors Even if arearegimes do not respond to Russian and Chinese political pres-sure, decreased military assistance will reduce the potency oftheir conventional and WMD arsenals

• Greater potential for progress on an Arab-Israeli ceasefire or tlement Although the settlement of the Arab-Israeli dispute de-pends largely on the immediate players involved, a concerted in-ternational effort might be able to reduce regional tensions andencourage all sides to sit at the negotiating table

set-• Improved anti-terrorism cooperation Russia and China haveconsiderable influence with governments in the region andstrong ties to many local factions, making them important part-ners in the effort to prevent future terrorist attacks against theUnited States

The Nature of Regime Change

Individual leaders have shaped their countries’ policies to a able degree in the past, influencing the choice of allies, economicpolicies, and their willingness to cooperate with the United States,among other factors Leaders have often done so in the face of popu-laces that are opposed to their policies In Egypt and Saudi Arabia inparticular, the popular resentment of the United States may, in thefuture, lead a different leader or regime to curtail ties to Washington

remark-to gain or bolster public support for the government

Even new leaders who are not hostile pose risks Untested leadersmay overreact during a crisis, enabling problems to spin out of con-trol Inaction is also a risk Many Middle East countries face a daunt-ing array of social and economic problems These cannot be put offindefinitely, but the risks of dramatic reform may persuade manyleaders to delay change until it is too late

The outlook is not all bleak Many of the hostile and despoticregimes in the Middle East are under siege or could face dramaticchange Iran and Libya are two of the countries that could see a newleadership, and dramatically new policies, in the coming decade In-deed, in both countries it is possible that a new leadership couldemerge that would completely reorient the country’s foreign policy

in general and its relationship with the United States

FINAL WORDS

Although the Middle East will remain a turbulent region, the nature

of the danger has changed dramatically Traditional concerns such

as a conventional military attack from an aggressive state remainplausible, but they are of far less importance than new challengessuch as WMD and terrorism U.S policy must also recognize that thelack of democratic institutions and the individual-dependent nature

of many regimes may lead to sudden and profound changes in theregion’s politics

Not only has the region changed, but so too has the American role.The United States is perhaps more influential in the Middle East than

at any other time in its history U.S involvement in postwar Iraq and

in the ongoing struggle against terrorism requires close cooperativerelationships with many countries in the region Yet threats to theUnited States seem likely to continue as long as the United States isperceived as upholding the regional status quo Efforts to recon-struct Iraq and mediate the Arab-Israeli conflict therefore take onparticular importance

Because of this turbulence, U.S policy must be flexible and robust.Years of relying largely on military power to achieve interests mayhave to give way to a wider array of tools, ranging from economic re-structuring to counterterrorism training to encouraging the rule oflaw Unless it pursues a multidimensional and coordinated policyapproach, the United States will be confined to reacting to crisesrather than preventing and managing them

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