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bellevue meets management 2012 thomas aebischer cfo managing growth in a two speed economy january 13 2012 holcim ltd

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Tiêu đề Managing growth in a two speed economy
Tác giả Thomas Aebischer
Trường học Holcim Ltd
Thể loại Bài báo
Năm xuất bản 2012
Thành phố Bellevue
Định dạng
Số trang 25
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3 People focus on the triple bottom line 4 Innovation, cost leadership, pricing Agenda... 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2016EMature Markets Emerging Markets World Strong fundamental gl

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Bellevue meets Management 2012

Thomas Aebischer – CFO

Managing growth in a two speed economy

January 13, 2012

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3 People focus on the triple bottom line

4 Innovation, cost leadership, pricing

Agenda

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2016E

Mature Markets Emerging Markets World

Strong fundamental global growth drivers

• Emerging markets drive the global

Source: United Nations (World Urbanization Prospects & World Population Prospects - 2011)

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Demographics positively impact economic

structures and demand

Low demand

Low savings

Lacking investments

Increasing demand Growing savings rate Increasing investments

Mass consumption High savings rate Peaking investments

Softening demand outlook Declining savings rate Refurbishment

Stationary

High fertility rate

High youth base

Developing Falling fertility rate Declining youth base

Mature Negative fertility rate Youth ~ retirees

Ageing Shrinking active population Youth < retirees

China

USA Russia

Mexico

India

Spain

Switzerland Brazil

Canada

Indonesia Chile

Source: United Nations (World Urbanization Prospects & World Population Prospects, 2011)

Germany

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By 2020 the global construction market is

expected to grow by 67%

• In 2010 the global construction market

was valued at around USD 7.2 trillion

• Mature markets outweigh emerging

markets

• In 2020 the global constructionmarket is expected to reach someUSD 12 trillion

• Emerging markets outweighmature markets

Source: Global Construciton 2020 (Oxford Economics, 2011)

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Source: Nominal GDP per Capita (at PPP) in USD: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011; Population: IMF

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3 People focus on the triple bottom line

4 Innovation, cost leadership, pricing

Agenda

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• Capacity expansion was strongly driven in emerging markets

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Europe North America Latin America Africa Middle East Asia Pacific

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Sources: Holcim, US Census Bureau, Datastream - Economist Intelligence Unit, November 2011

GDP per capita (at PPP) CAGR 2010 - 2015E

Cumulated population

Growth 2010 - 2015E

Western Europe 27.0 Mt

Eastern Europe 23.9 Mt

Africa Middle East 27.2 Mt

Mature markets Emerging markets

Size of circles represents influenced capacity 2010

North America 23.2 Mt

India 54.0 Mt

China 54.7 Mt

Asia Pacific excl

India, Oceania, China

46.3 Mt

Latin America 36.6 Mt

Demand growth

Oceania 4.9 Mt

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Positioning the aggregates market portfolio to

capture opportunities along the value chain

Africa Middle East

2.5 Mt

Latin America 12.2 Mt

North America 39.2 Mt

Asia excl

Oceania 3.2 Mt

Size of circles represents consolidated sales volumes 2010

Eastern Europe 8.2 Mt

Demand growth

GDP per capita (at PPP) CAGR 2010 - 2015E

Cumulated population

Growth 2010 - 2015E

Sources: Holcim, US Census Bureau, Datastream - Economist Intelligence Unit, November 2011

Oceania 23.2 Mt

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3 People focus on the triple bottom line

4 Innovation, cost leadership, pricing

Agenda

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Energy management starts with our sustainability culture and ends with the values of our people

Specific Gross and net direct CO2 emissions Clinker factor

Each employee is an ambassador of our sustainability culture

kg CO2 / tonne cement Improvement % / Average % of clinker cement

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Handling energy cost inflation

World Primary Energy Demand

Fossil Fuel Price Development

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2011; Datastream

Fossil fuel prices based on New Policies Scenario

(not including CO2 costs)

Thermal Fuel 63%

Holcim Thermal Fuel Mix (2010)

Coal 57%

Natural gas 5%

Biomass 2%

Alt fossil fuels 10%

Shale/ lignite 5%

Heavy fuel 1%

Petcoke 20%

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Proactive energy management to mitigate cost

inflation

• Using the most efficient technology for new kiln capacity

• Efficiency improvement projects (e.g., waste heat recovery, multi-stage combustion chamber)

• Focus on delivered cost per unit and fuel diversification

• Invest in physical infrastructure and delivery systems

Excellence

in buying energy

Reduction

of Energy Intensity

Optimization

of Fuel Mix

Proactive energy management

Vertical integration into sources

• Increase replacement of traditional by alternative fuels

• Invest in fuel flexibility and switching

• Vertical integration with coal and captive power

• Focus on renewable primary energies (e.g., wind)

• Take best practices and replicate / transfer knowledge

• Leverage global trading group scale and cost certainty

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Cost reduction through innovation

New

• Better cost management will continue to

focus on networking our assets and

renewable energy initiatives

• The Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) system at

Untervaz represents 15% of the plant’s

electricity consumption – 10.5 GWh/a

• The WHR installation produces electrical

power without additional CO2 emissions – a

renewable power generation system

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3 People focus on the triple bottom line

4 Innovation, cost leadership, pricing

Agenda

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Paving the way into the future with innovation

offers new opportunities to leverage service and tailor-made

solutions

- London 2012 Olympic Village

- Affordable housing in Indonesia

- NEAT Alpentransit project

- Low cost housing system

23%

Ordinary Portland cement

30%

Composite cement

Standardized affordable building solution – Holcim Indonesia

Eco-efficiency

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• Pricing momentum will continue while the cost curve will bend – a positive inflection point

• Continued cost management and operating leverage will lead to margin

expansion and cash flow generation

Focusing on pricing while keeping costs low

Positive margin inflection point

Margin expansion

10 year period from 2001 to 2010

Percentages calculated as year over year change in average selling price and cost based in CHF

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3 People focus on the triple bottom line

4 Innovation, cost leadership, pricing

Agenda

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Generating cash flow at different speeds while

continuously seeking efficiency gains

(CAGR: 0.5%) (CAGR: 5.3%)

• The operating EBITDA increased by 3.4% (CAGR) between 2001 and 2010

on a group level with the emerging markets strongly driving this growth

• Efficiency gains were continuously focused on - a reduction of net working capital / sales reaching roughly 4% in 2010 (2001: just below 12%) and a fixed cost reduction in 2009 and 2010 of nearly CHF 1.2 billion

0 1'000 2'000 3'000 4'000 5'000 6'000 7'000

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• Mature markets: Cash flow generation coming from a mix of volume growth, improving pricing, cost savings, ongoing focus on efficiency improvements and an increase in capacity utilization rates

• Emerging markets: Strong volume growth from new capacities combined with good pricing will offset cost challenges and together with a clear focus

on efficiency increases result in a strong level of cash flow generation

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Contact information and event calendar

Event calendar

February 29, 2012 Press and analyst conference for

the annual results for 2011 April 17, 2012 General meeting of shareholders May 9, 2012 First quarter results for 2012 August 15, 2012 Half year results for 2012 November 7, 2012 Press and analyst conference for

the third quarter results for 2012

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Disclaimer

Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements

This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements

relating to the Group’s future business, development and economic performance

Such statements may be subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors, such as but not limited to (1) competitive pressures; (2) legislative and regulatory developments; (3) global,

macroeconomic and political trends; (4) fluctuations in currency

exchange rates and general financial market conditions; (5) delay or inability in obtaining approvals from authorities; (6) technical

developments; (7) litigation; (8) adverse publicity and news

coverage, which could cause actual development and results to differ materially from the statements made in this presentation Holcim

assumes no obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

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