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bz bank investors dinner 14 may 2014 thomas aebischer cfo holcim ltd

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Tiêu đề BZ Bank Investors Dinner 14 May 2014 Thomas Aebischer CFO Holcim Ltd
Trường học Holcim Ltd
Chuyên ngành Finance/Investments
Thể loại Conference Presentation
Năm xuất bản 2014
Thành phố Unknown
Định dạng
Số trang 53
Dung lượng 2,74 MB

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China and North America will attract most of the additional construction spend, followed by Emerging Asia and India• In nominal dollar terms, China, North America, Emerging Asia and Ind

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BZ Bank Investors Dinner

14 May 2014

Thomas Aebischer – CFO Holcim Ltd

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Holcim at a glance

130 cement plants around 200 limestone quarries / 450 aggregates operations

1’150 RMX plants in the world

> 70’000 employees

over 5’000 own RMX trucks / more

Presence on all five continents and in around 70 countries

2013 Net sales of CHF 19.7 bn and operating EBITDA of CHF 3.9 bn

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GDP at constant prices [annual % change]

Forecast

Slightly better economic recovery expected, although

uncertainty remains, …

to accelerate slowly from 3.0% in

2013 to 3.6% in 2014 and 3.9% in

2015 (IMF April 2014)

expand simultaneously for the first time in several years

should perform better in 2014

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2014

Change in GDP Forecast [January '14 to April'14]

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fundamental trends support our business …

The right place to be

Population

growth

Continued urbanization Economic growth

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Europe 37%

Asia

Pacific 30%

Latin America 8%

Africa Middle

East 14%

Europe 18%

North America 6%

Latin America 11%

Asia Pacific 38%

Africa Middle East 27%

Europe 13%

North America 5%

Latin America 10%

Asia Pacific 42%

Africa Middle East 29%

Cement demand Split Mature vs Emerging markets

Cement demand evolution by region, excl China

*Source: BMI, National cement associations, Holcim estimates

… resulting in long-term cement consumption growth driven

by emerging markets and recovery in Europe and US

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Regional Construction Market Growth Forecast [CAGR]

• Following the pattern of expected slower GDP growth, growth projections for the sector are still strong

• The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in construction spend is

expected to be 6% for the period from

2013 to 2025

Oxford Economics remains positive on the long term

prospects of the global construction sector

Source: Oxford Economics - Global Construction Perspectives 2020 (March 2011) and 2025 (July 2013)

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China and North America will attract most of the additional construction spend, followed by Emerging Asia and India

In nominal dollar terms, China, North America,

Emerging Asia and India are expected to attract more than two thirds of global construction

spend

China is a growth driver with more than a third of

2013-2025 value growth potential [36% TOT]

North America is expected to regain momentum driven

by economic recovery and population growth [15% TOT]

New Asian Tigers (Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam

and Philippines) is expected see significant growth over

the period - Indonesia is expected to become the

worlds third largest housing market [12% TOT]

India considerable growth potential [9% of TOT]

Latin America (excl Mexico) will grow at a relatively

low rate [6% of TOT]

stagnant population will result in low but stable growth [5% TOT]

Eastern Europe (driven by Russia and Turkey) is

expected to grow almost as much as India [8% TOT]

Africa with significant growth rates, however small

overall

Source: Oxford Economics - Global Construction Perspectives 2025 (July 2013)

Global Construction Market [2013-2025]

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60

17 26

26 11

19 3

5

68

4 12

7 11

Over the past 10 years Holcim invested about CHF 35 billion to establish a global

footprint unmatched in the industry

Well positioned to address growth in cement demand

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• Global footprint - the result of

organic and inorganic growth

initiatives

• Operating cash flow more than

sufficient to cover CAPEX and

financial investments

• Current cement capacities incl

ongoing projects sufficient for

growth without major new

investments

• Increasing capacity utilization of

existing plants coupled with

ongoing cost reductions to vastly

improve ROIC

• Substantial free cash flow

generation expected for coming

years

Value creation from our existing asset base

-5005001'5002'5003'5004'5005'5006'500

Cash flow from operating activities CAPEX Financial (de)/investments

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

In CHF million

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GEOGRAPHICAL COMPLEMENTARITY OF PORTFOLIOS

Holcim sales (CHF)

Lafarge sales (CHF)

Global presence of Holcim and Lafarge

Aggregates volume sold (mT) 193 155 348

Emerging markets

Developed

# of

Note: pre-disposals, pre-group elimination, post regional elimination

Combined sales by region

(in billion)

3.8 3.2

Asia

61%

39%

CHF 8.6 / EUR 7.0

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UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION FOR SHAREHOLDERS

» NEW BEST-IN-CLASS GLOBAL PORTFOLIO

» SUPERIOR GROWTH AND OPERATING PROFITABILITY

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KEY TRANSACTION HIGHLIGHTS

COMPANY

NAME » LafargeHolcim DEAL

STRUCTURE » » Merger of equals Company domiciled in Switzerland

REBALANCED

PORTFOLIO

» Capitalise on developed markets recovery

» Divestments of assets representing CHF 6bn / EUR 5bn of sales

» 60% exposure to emerging markets post divestments

» No country above c 10% of sales

BOARD &

SHAREHOLDER

SUPPORT

» Boards of both companies have unanimously approved the transaction

» Thomas Schmidheiny, GBL and NNS fully support the transaction

VALUE PROPOSITION

» Best growth platform in the industry and superior operating profitability

» CHF 1.7bn / EUR 1.4bn of run-rate synergies

» Strict capital allocation discipline and strong financial structure:

targeted solid Investment Grade credit ratings

» Attractive dividend payout policy

EXCHANGE

RATIO » Exchange ratio of 1 Holcim share for 1 Lafarge share

TIMETABLE » Transaction closing expected in H1 2015

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BEST-IN-CLASS PORTFOLIO FOR GROWTH

EMERGING MARKETS

» 60% of pro forma sales

» 13 countries out of our Top 20 with strong infrastructure needs 2

» 6% CAGR for construction outputs expected until 2025 3

DEVELOPED MARKETS

» 40% of pro forma sales

» Significant recovery potential

1 Pro forma of divestments

2 Ranked below 50 in the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness index for quality of overall infrastructure 2012-2013

3 Global Construction 2025 - A global forecast for the construction industry to 2025

Africa/Middle East

N. America Asia/Pacific

LatAm

c. 60% Emerging  markets

Eastern  Europe

c. 40% Developed  markets

Western  Europe 

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OPERATIONAL SYNERGIES

SOURCE

» Operational optimisation / best practices

ESTIMATED EBITDA RUN-RATE SYNERGIES

CHF 240 m / EUR 200 m

» Procurement

 Savings in overlapping countries

 Economies of scale in centralized procurement for

selected categories

» Selling, General and Administrative

» Innovation deployed on a larger scale

 Cross-fertilization of value-added product portfolios

CHF 410 m / EUR 340 m

CHF 300 m / EUR 250 m

CHF 240 m / EUR 200 m CHF 1.2 bn / EUR 1.0 bn TOTAL SYNERGIES AT EBITDA LEVEL

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FINANCING & CASH-FLOW SYNERGIES

SOURCE

» Financing savings

ESTIMATED RUN-RATE SYNERGIES

CHF 120 m / EUR 100 m (from end of year 1)

Up to CHF 240 m / EUR 200 m (over time)

» Capital expenditures

 Best practice on maintenance capex

 Higher efficiency on expansion capex

» Working capital savings

 Sharing of best practices

CHF 250 m / EUR 200 m

CHF 500 m / EUR 410 m (over 3 years)

CHF 1.7 bn / EUR 1.4 bn TOTAL SYNERGIES

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Operational Synergies Financing Synergies Capex Synergies Implementation Costs Working Capital Savings

CHF 0.1 / EUR 0.0

CHF 0.7 / EUR 0.5

CHF 1.7 / EUR 1.4 CHF 1.7 / EUR 1.4

CHF 1.7 bn / EUR 1.4 bn RUN-RATE SYNERGIES

PRE-TAX SYNERGIES (CHF bn / EUR bn) – PHASED IN OVER 3 YEARS

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KEY STEPS TO CLOSING

» After regulatory approvals:

 Holcim EGM approvals

 Launch public exchange offer

DIVESTMENTS » Process to start immediately

INTEGRATION

PREPARATION » Prepare an integration plan for implementation straight after closing of the transaction

REGULATORY

APPROVALS » Regulatory proceedings initiated in all relevant jurisdictions shortly

TRANSACTION CLOSING EXPECTED IN H1 2015

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• Holcim expects cement volumes to increase in all Group regions

• Aggregates volumes expected to remain flat overall as increases in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, and Africa Middle East are

offset by negative volumes in Latin America

• Ready-mix concrete volumes also expected to increase in most

regions with the exception of Europe and Latin America

• Holcim expects that organic growth in operating profit can be

achieved in 2014

• The ongoing focus on the cost base coupled with all the benefits

expected from the Holcim Leadership Journey will lead to a further expansion in operating margins

Outlook for 2014

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• Cement consumption growth driven by emerging markets and

recovery in Europe and US

• Holcim with current footprint well positioned to address growth in

cement demand without adding any significant new capacities

• The proposed merger with Lafarge will add significant value for all stakeholders

• The unmatched global footprint of the combination between Holcim and Lafarge will lead to less additional capital for expansion and

therefore even more attractive returns to shareholders

• The ongoing focus on the cost base coupled with all the benefits

expected from the Holcim Leadership Journey will lead to a further expansion in operating margins in 2014 and beyond

Conclusions

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Contact information and event calendar

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Backup Slides

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Holcim Leadership Journey is on track

All figures in million CHF

Cash cost to achieve the savings (one-off) 239 3) 0 0 0

3) Original amount w as projected < CHF 120 million for 2013; having spent already CHF 239 million, no additional restructuring cash costs are foreseen at this stage

achieved achieved Q1

2014

cum Target

achieved cumulative since 2012

2012 2013

1) The base line is the financial year 2011 amounting to CHF 2,308 million (excluding one-off charges 2011 of CHF 375 m and w ithout fluctuations in currency, changes

in scope of consolidation and similar market conditions) Adjusted for the sale of 25% of Cement Australia and Siam City Cement, the new base is CHF 2'193 million

2) Additional CAPEX net w ill come from prioritization of CAPEX based on the speed of the returns (ROIC)

Current energy fund of CHF 100 million w ill be maintained through the period 2012 - 2014

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Streamlined organizational structure Holcim Group*

1 Internal Audit reports to the Chairman of the

Board of Directors

2 Excluding UK

3 Paul Hugentobler, Advisor to the CEO

4 Corporate Functional Manager Jacques Bourgon as advisor to the CEO

5 Aidan Lynam to remain member of senior management of Holcim Ltd.

Onne van der Weijde Javier

de Benito

CommunicationsHumanResourcesOccupationalHealth & SafetyStrategy

Aggregates &ConstructionMaterialsCustomer ExcellenceCementManufacturingCAPEX Projects InnovationLogisticsSustainableDevelopmentAlternative Fuels

& Resources

ControllingFinancing &

TreasuryGroupStructure & TaxInvestorRelationsITMerger &

AcquisitionsProcurementRiskManagement

Ian Thackwray

IndianSubcontinentAfricaMiddle East

East AsiaSouth East AsiaOceaniaHolcim Trading

Latin America North America

UK

Europe2

Urs Bleisch Xavier Dedullen

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Financial indicators

1restated due to changes in accounting policies

Long-term corporate credit rating (April 2014) 2011 2011 2013 Current

Operating EBITDA margin (%) for:

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Key financial figures

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Foreign exchange rate impact

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Net sales by region

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Operating EBITDA by region

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Operating profit bridge

CO2 Other CIS FX Op Profit

Q1 2014

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Operating profit by region

Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014

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Cash flow from operating activities

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Statement of cash flows

Full year

Net investments to maintain productive

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<1y 1-2y 2-3y 3-4y 4-5y 5-6y 6-7y 7-8y 8-9y 9-10y>10y

Financial debt, maturities and liquidity as of March 31, 2014

1After risk-related adjustments of CHF 392 million from current financial

liabilities to long-term financial liabilities

Liquidity summary

credit lines: CHF 6,558 million

Debt summary

• Current financial liabilities1: CHF 2,493 million

ST/LT ratings summary as of April 28, 2014

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Overall debt reduced by CHF 6.6 billion since 2008

Share of capital market financing at around 80%

Loans Capital markets Share of capital market financing (r.h scale)

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Access to a wide range of capital markets – only CHF 0.9 bn

of capital markets instruments maturing until year-end 2014

Capital markets funding distribution as per Q1 2014 Capital market maturities Q1 2014 – 2015

Mar-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

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Cement – Price/volume variances per region

* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1Weighted average like-for-like

2Adjusted for sale of 25% in Cement Australia as of March 28, 2013

3 Locally not published yet

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Cement – Price/volume variances per region

* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1Weighted average like-for-like 2 Calculation in USD

3The percentage change like-for-like adjusted for internal trading volumes eliminated in “Corporate/Eliminations” amounts to +2.9

4 Locally not published yet

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Cement – Price/volume variances per region

* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1 Weighted average like-for-like

∆ Q1 13 / Q1 14 *

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Cement – Price/volume variances per region

* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1Weighted average like-for-like 2 Locally not published yet

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Aggregates – Price/volume variances per region

* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1 Weighted average like-for-like 2 Locally not published yet

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Aggregates – Price/volume variances per region

* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1 Weighted average like-for-like

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LlosetaBuñol

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Positions in North America

* as of December 31, 2013

Cement capacity*: 22.0 Mt

Cement plant Grinding plant/

terminal Aggregates

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Positions in Latin America

* as of December 31, 2013

Cement plant Grinding plant/

terminal Aggregates

Participation:

Cement plant Aggregates Grinding plant / terminal Cement capacity*: 35.3 Mt

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Positions in Africa Middle East

* as of December 31, 2013

Cement plant Grinding plant/

terminal Aggregates

Participation:

Cement plant Aggregates Grinding plant / terminal

1

Cement capacity*: 11 Mt; further 12.5 Mt with partners

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Positions in Asia Pacific

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54%

Aditya Birla Group 17%

Positions in India

JP Cem 9%

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Positions in China

Anhui Henan

City Total Huaxin cement capacity: 67.6 Mt

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