China and North America will attract most of the additional construction spend, followed by Emerging Asia and India• In nominal dollar terms, China, North America, Emerging Asia and Ind
Trang 1BZ Bank Investors Dinner
14 May 2014
Thomas Aebischer – CFO Holcim Ltd
Trang 3Holcim at a glance
130 cement plants around 200 limestone quarries / 450 aggregates operations
1’150 RMX plants in the world
> 70’000 employees
over 5’000 own RMX trucks / more
Presence on all five continents and in around 70 countries
2013 Net sales of CHF 19.7 bn and operating EBITDA of CHF 3.9 bn
Trang 5GDP at constant prices [annual % change]
Forecast
Slightly better economic recovery expected, although
uncertainty remains, …
to accelerate slowly from 3.0% in
2013 to 3.6% in 2014 and 3.9% in
2015 (IMF April 2014)
expand simultaneously for the first time in several years
should perform better in 2014
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2014
Change in GDP Forecast [January '14 to April'14]
Trang 6fundamental trends support our business …
The right place to be
Population
growth
Continued urbanization Economic growth
Trang 7Europe 37%
Asia
Pacific 30%
Latin America 8%
Africa Middle
East 14%
Europe 18%
North America 6%
Latin America 11%
Asia Pacific 38%
Africa Middle East 27%
Europe 13%
North America 5%
Latin America 10%
Asia Pacific 42%
Africa Middle East 29%
Cement demand Split Mature vs Emerging markets
Cement demand evolution by region, excl China
*Source: BMI, National cement associations, Holcim estimates
… resulting in long-term cement consumption growth driven
by emerging markets and recovery in Europe and US
Trang 8Regional Construction Market Growth Forecast [CAGR]
• Following the pattern of expected slower GDP growth, growth projections for the sector are still strong
• The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in construction spend is
expected to be 6% for the period from
2013 to 2025
Oxford Economics remains positive on the long term
prospects of the global construction sector
Source: Oxford Economics - Global Construction Perspectives 2020 (March 2011) and 2025 (July 2013)
Trang 9China and North America will attract most of the additional construction spend, followed by Emerging Asia and India
• In nominal dollar terms, China, North America,
Emerging Asia and India are expected to attract more than two thirds of global construction
spend
• China is a growth driver with more than a third of
2013-2025 value growth potential [36% TOT]
• North America is expected to regain momentum driven
by economic recovery and population growth [15% TOT]
• New Asian Tigers (Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam
and Philippines) is expected see significant growth over
the period - Indonesia is expected to become the
worlds third largest housing market [12% TOT]
• India considerable growth potential [9% of TOT]
• Latin America (excl Mexico) will grow at a relatively
low rate [6% of TOT]
stagnant population will result in low but stable growth [5% TOT]
• Eastern Europe (driven by Russia and Turkey) is
expected to grow almost as much as India [8% TOT]
• Africa with significant growth rates, however small
overall
Source: Oxford Economics - Global Construction Perspectives 2025 (July 2013)
Global Construction Market [2013-2025]
Trang 1060
17 26
26 11
19 3
5
68
4 12
7 11
Over the past 10 years Holcim invested about CHF 35 billion to establish a global
footprint unmatched in the industry
Well positioned to address growth in cement demand
Trang 11• Global footprint - the result of
organic and inorganic growth
initiatives
• Operating cash flow more than
sufficient to cover CAPEX and
financial investments
• Current cement capacities incl
ongoing projects sufficient for
growth without major new
investments
• Increasing capacity utilization of
existing plants coupled with
ongoing cost reductions to vastly
improve ROIC
• Substantial free cash flow
generation expected for coming
years
Value creation from our existing asset base
-5005001'5002'5003'5004'5005'5006'500
Cash flow from operating activities CAPEX Financial (de)/investments
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
In CHF million
Trang 13GEOGRAPHICAL COMPLEMENTARITY OF PORTFOLIOS
Holcim sales (CHF)
Lafarge sales (CHF)
Global presence of Holcim and Lafarge
Aggregates volume sold (mT) 193 155 348
Emerging markets
Developed
# of
Note: pre-disposals, pre-group elimination, post regional elimination
Combined sales by region
(in billion)
3.8 3.2
Asia
61%
39%
CHF 8.6 / EUR 7.0
Trang 14UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION FOR SHAREHOLDERS
» NEW BEST-IN-CLASS GLOBAL PORTFOLIO
» SUPERIOR GROWTH AND OPERATING PROFITABILITY
Trang 15KEY TRANSACTION HIGHLIGHTS
COMPANY
NAME » LafargeHolcim DEAL
STRUCTURE » » Merger of equals Company domiciled in Switzerland
REBALANCED
PORTFOLIO
» Capitalise on developed markets recovery
» Divestments of assets representing CHF 6bn / EUR 5bn of sales
» 60% exposure to emerging markets post divestments
» No country above c 10% of sales
BOARD &
SHAREHOLDER
SUPPORT
» Boards of both companies have unanimously approved the transaction
» Thomas Schmidheiny, GBL and NNS fully support the transaction
VALUE PROPOSITION
» Best growth platform in the industry and superior operating profitability
» CHF 1.7bn / EUR 1.4bn of run-rate synergies
» Strict capital allocation discipline and strong financial structure:
targeted solid Investment Grade credit ratings
» Attractive dividend payout policy
EXCHANGE
RATIO » Exchange ratio of 1 Holcim share for 1 Lafarge share
TIMETABLE » Transaction closing expected in H1 2015
Trang 16BEST-IN-CLASS PORTFOLIO FOR GROWTH
EMERGING MARKETS
» 60% of pro forma sales
» 13 countries out of our Top 20 with strong infrastructure needs 2
» 6% CAGR for construction outputs expected until 2025 3
DEVELOPED MARKETS
» 40% of pro forma sales
» Significant recovery potential
1 Pro forma of divestments
2 Ranked below 50 in the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness index for quality of overall infrastructure 2012-2013
3 Global Construction 2025 - A global forecast for the construction industry to 2025
Africa/Middle East
N. America Asia/Pacific
LatAm
c. 60% Emerging markets
Eastern Europe
c. 40% Developed markets
Western Europe
Trang 17OPERATIONAL SYNERGIES
SOURCE
» Operational optimisation / best practices
ESTIMATED EBITDA RUN-RATE SYNERGIES
CHF 240 m / EUR 200 m
» Procurement
Savings in overlapping countries
Economies of scale in centralized procurement for
selected categories
» Selling, General and Administrative
» Innovation deployed on a larger scale
Cross-fertilization of value-added product portfolios
CHF 410 m / EUR 340 m
CHF 300 m / EUR 250 m
CHF 240 m / EUR 200 m CHF 1.2 bn / EUR 1.0 bn TOTAL SYNERGIES AT EBITDA LEVEL
Trang 18FINANCING & CASH-FLOW SYNERGIES
SOURCE
» Financing savings
ESTIMATED RUN-RATE SYNERGIES
CHF 120 m / EUR 100 m (from end of year 1)
Up to CHF 240 m / EUR 200 m (over time)
» Capital expenditures
Best practice on maintenance capex
Higher efficiency on expansion capex
» Working capital savings
Sharing of best practices
CHF 250 m / EUR 200 m
CHF 500 m / EUR 410 m (over 3 years)
CHF 1.7 bn / EUR 1.4 bn TOTAL SYNERGIES
Trang 19Operational Synergies Financing Synergies Capex Synergies Implementation Costs Working Capital Savings
CHF 0.1 / EUR 0.0
CHF 0.7 / EUR 0.5
CHF 1.7 / EUR 1.4 CHF 1.7 / EUR 1.4
CHF 1.7 bn / EUR 1.4 bn RUN-RATE SYNERGIES
PRE-TAX SYNERGIES (CHF bn / EUR bn) – PHASED IN OVER 3 YEARS
Trang 20KEY STEPS TO CLOSING
» After regulatory approvals:
Holcim EGM approvals
Launch public exchange offer
DIVESTMENTS » Process to start immediately
INTEGRATION
PREPARATION » Prepare an integration plan for implementation straight after closing of the transaction
REGULATORY
APPROVALS » Regulatory proceedings initiated in all relevant jurisdictions shortly
TRANSACTION CLOSING EXPECTED IN H1 2015
Trang 22• Holcim expects cement volumes to increase in all Group regions
• Aggregates volumes expected to remain flat overall as increases in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, and Africa Middle East are
offset by negative volumes in Latin America
• Ready-mix concrete volumes also expected to increase in most
regions with the exception of Europe and Latin America
• Holcim expects that organic growth in operating profit can be
achieved in 2014
• The ongoing focus on the cost base coupled with all the benefits
expected from the Holcim Leadership Journey will lead to a further expansion in operating margins
Outlook for 2014
Trang 23• Cement consumption growth driven by emerging markets and
recovery in Europe and US
• Holcim with current footprint well positioned to address growth in
cement demand without adding any significant new capacities
• The proposed merger with Lafarge will add significant value for all stakeholders
• The unmatched global footprint of the combination between Holcim and Lafarge will lead to less additional capital for expansion and
therefore even more attractive returns to shareholders
• The ongoing focus on the cost base coupled with all the benefits
expected from the Holcim Leadership Journey will lead to a further expansion in operating margins in 2014 and beyond
Conclusions
Trang 24Contact information and event calendar
Trang 26Backup Slides
Trang 27Holcim Leadership Journey is on track
All figures in million CHF
Cash cost to achieve the savings (one-off) 239 3) 0 0 0
3) Original amount w as projected < CHF 120 million for 2013; having spent already CHF 239 million, no additional restructuring cash costs are foreseen at this stage
achieved achieved Q1
2014
cum Target
achieved cumulative since 2012
2012 2013
1) The base line is the financial year 2011 amounting to CHF 2,308 million (excluding one-off charges 2011 of CHF 375 m and w ithout fluctuations in currency, changes
in scope of consolidation and similar market conditions) Adjusted for the sale of 25% of Cement Australia and Siam City Cement, the new base is CHF 2'193 million
2) Additional CAPEX net w ill come from prioritization of CAPEX based on the speed of the returns (ROIC)
Current energy fund of CHF 100 million w ill be maintained through the period 2012 - 2014
Trang 28Streamlined organizational structure Holcim Group*
1 Internal Audit reports to the Chairman of the
Board of Directors
2 Excluding UK
3 Paul Hugentobler, Advisor to the CEO
4 Corporate Functional Manager Jacques Bourgon as advisor to the CEO
5 Aidan Lynam to remain member of senior management of Holcim Ltd.
Onne van der Weijde Javier
de Benito
CommunicationsHumanResourcesOccupationalHealth & SafetyStrategy
Aggregates &ConstructionMaterialsCustomer ExcellenceCementManufacturingCAPEX Projects InnovationLogisticsSustainableDevelopmentAlternative Fuels
& Resources
ControllingFinancing &
TreasuryGroupStructure & TaxInvestorRelationsITMerger &
AcquisitionsProcurementRiskManagement
Ian Thackwray
IndianSubcontinentAfricaMiddle East
East AsiaSouth East AsiaOceaniaHolcim Trading
Latin America North America
UK
Europe2
Urs Bleisch Xavier Dedullen
Trang 29Financial indicators
1restated due to changes in accounting policies
Long-term corporate credit rating (April 2014) 2011 2011 2013 Current
Operating EBITDA margin (%) for:
Trang 30Key financial figures
Trang 31Foreign exchange rate impact
Trang 32Net sales by region
Trang 33Operating EBITDA by region
Trang 34Operating profit bridge
CO2 Other CIS FX Op Profit
Q1 2014
Trang 35Operating profit by region
Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014
Trang 36Cash flow from operating activities
Trang 37Statement of cash flows
Full year
Net investments to maintain productive
Trang 38<1y 1-2y 2-3y 3-4y 4-5y 5-6y 6-7y 7-8y 8-9y 9-10y>10y
Financial debt, maturities and liquidity as of March 31, 2014
1After risk-related adjustments of CHF 392 million from current financial
liabilities to long-term financial liabilities
Liquidity summary
credit lines: CHF 6,558 million
Debt summary
• Current financial liabilities1: CHF 2,493 million
ST/LT ratings summary as of April 28, 2014
Trang 39Overall debt reduced by CHF 6.6 billion since 2008
Share of capital market financing at around 80%
Loans Capital markets Share of capital market financing (r.h scale)
Trang 40Access to a wide range of capital markets – only CHF 0.9 bn
of capital markets instruments maturing until year-end 2014
Capital markets funding distribution as per Q1 2014 Capital market maturities Q1 2014 – 2015
Mar-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Trang 41Cement – Price/volume variances per region
* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1Weighted average like-for-like
2Adjusted for sale of 25% in Cement Australia as of March 28, 2013
3 Locally not published yet
Trang 42Cement – Price/volume variances per region
* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1Weighted average like-for-like 2 Calculation in USD
3The percentage change like-for-like adjusted for internal trading volumes eliminated in “Corporate/Eliminations” amounts to +2.9
4 Locally not published yet
Trang 43Cement – Price/volume variances per region
* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1 Weighted average like-for-like
∆ Q1 13 / Q1 14 *
Trang 44Cement – Price/volume variances per region
* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1Weighted average like-for-like 2 Locally not published yet
Trang 45Aggregates – Price/volume variances per region
* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1 Weighted average like-for-like 2 Locally not published yet
Trang 46Aggregates – Price/volume variances per region
* If not otherwise indicated calculation based on local currencies 1 Weighted average like-for-like
Trang 47LlosetaBuñol
Trang 48Positions in North America
* as of December 31, 2013
Cement capacity*: 22.0 Mt
Cement plant Grinding plant/
terminal Aggregates
Trang 49Positions in Latin America
* as of December 31, 2013
Cement plant Grinding plant/
terminal Aggregates
Participation:
Cement plant Aggregates Grinding plant / terminal Cement capacity*: 35.3 Mt
Trang 50Positions in Africa Middle East
* as of December 31, 2013
Cement plant Grinding plant/
terminal Aggregates
Participation:
Cement plant Aggregates Grinding plant / terminal
1
Cement capacity*: 11 Mt; further 12.5 Mt with partners
Trang 51Positions in Asia Pacific
Trang 5254%
Aditya Birla Group 17%
Positions in India
JP Cem 9%
Trang 53Positions in China
Anhui Henan
City Total Huaxin cement capacity: 67.6 Mt