Thuyết trình thanh toán quốc tế "Tỷ giá hối đoái USD/VNĐ 2009-2010" doc

The exchange rate is also the value of one currency in comparison with...  Nominal exchange rate is the price of one unit of foreign currency per domestic currency and not to mention t

What is the exchange rate?

• The exchange rate is the rate at which one currency may be converted into another The exchange rate is also the value of one currency in comparison with

 Nominal exchange rate is the price of one unit of foreign currency per domestic currency and not to mention the purchasing power of money.

 Real exchange rate is the nominal exchange rate was adjusted according to relative prices between countries.

 Effective exchange rate is weighted average of a basket

of foreign currencies

 Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate is the exchange rate at

which the demand for a currency and supply of the same currency are equal The equilibrium exchange rate indicates that the price of exchanging two currencies will remain stable.

 Demand and supply for foreign currency

 Interest rate difference between two countries

 Inflation rate difference among countries.

 Balance of payments Besides, Crowd psychology, government policies, credibility of the currency, etc

… also affect the exchange rate.

Exchange rate situation in

Vietnam in 2009

 In 2009 years could be considered

"currency year" in Vietnam.

 In fact, this was happened since the

beginning of the foreign exchange market that shows it always stress.

E xchange r ate m ovements

 Stage1: Exchange rate fluctuated between 17.450 dong and 17.700 dong , with the ceiling price ranges from 0 to

200 points (a point equivalent to a dong)

I The interbank market

January 2009

February 2009

March 2009

Exchange rate movements

I The interbank market

Exchange rate movements

 Stage 3 : by the end of October 2009, increasing the exchange rate, rises 0,11% in comparison with the first of October 2009 and to November 10 above the ceiling price

of 1000 points Exchange rate fluctuations is very intense,

a day increased from 200 to 300 points and peaking at 19,750 in November 24th Until the State Bank allowed back in gold, it fell for two days but still higher than 1200-

1500 points over the ceiling price.

I The interbank market

 The enterprises keep dollars holding, many export enterprises suppose that need to “foresight”, so not sell the foreign currency, or sell limited quantities for commercial banks Therefore, the lack of needed foreign currency for regulating the economy happened in banks.

 By the first of September, the new USD interest rate was fell during two months ago by the bank that has trended to rise for keeping the depositors when the invest channels become more attractive

 In mid-September, Exchange rate USD/VND was exciting again, repeatedly set milestones record Because the enterprises do not only take advantage of the low interest rate to borrow, but also increase purchase dollars for import

Exchange rate movements

 Stage 4: the exchange rate declined from a high of 19,800 dong

to 18,500 dong, close to the ceiling price.

 To apply for the interest rates in VND capital below 10.5%

 Sell foreign currency to support the credit institutions

 Combining the concerned departments to inspect the operation

control of foreign currency trading

=> Stimulating demand for domestic currency and rising supply for

foreign currency (USD)

Exchange rate movements

II Free market changes much more intense

Exchange rate movements

 Stage 1, it was varried a bit around the price of 16.980 dong

 Stage 2, after loosening amplitude, rates declined from 16,980 dong to 16,935 dong (- 0.26%) and maintained until the end of May 2009 Since June 2009, although the State Bank adjust to rise gradually, but low growth

 Stage 3, Growth rate of the average exchange rate to the interbank was still not much and until November 19, 2009 by 0,3% in comparison with in the end of 2008

 Stage 4, Since Nov 26th, SB’s average exchange rate was adjusted to rise to 5,44%, more than in 2008 the increase was only 5,11%

III State bank market changes a little

2009

Forecast in 2010

 2009 was the year the implementation of the stimulus package, potentially inflationary.Thus, in 2010 the implementation of policies to control inflation is entirely possible.

 The trade deficit will increase in 2010, due to the restructuring economy policy of government in rural areas.

 Dollar devaluation on the world market caused the demand for gold increases.

 Developed countries focus on economic recovery should be reduced FDI » Reduce the supply of foreign currency (USD), etc…

Exchange rate fluctuations will still rise, but slow and

steady The tight control of borrowing dollars for production

activities will limit speculation in order to increase the virtual

dollar 2010 will be one year implementation of monetary policy

tightening to ensure stable the development of the economy