000069240 SEASONALITY AND THE INFLUENTIAL ON DECISION MAKING BEHAVIOR OF VIETNAMESE DOMESTIC TOURISTS MÙA VÀ ẢNH HƯỞNG ĐẾN HÀNH VI QUYẾT ĐỊNH CỦA KHÁCH DU LỊCH NỘI ĐỊA VIỆT NAM
IN TR O D U CTIO N
Backg round
Tourism has evolved into a global industry that drives economic activity for many countries through consumer spending on goods and services, business taxes, and job opportunities in the service sectors tied to travel The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) identifies tourism as the world's largest industry, with annual revenues exceeding $3 trillion Across the global tourism landscape, Vietnam has seen steady growth in recent years, establishing tourism as a key economic sector and a significant contributor to the country's development.
With its vast landscapes, a heritage spanning more than 4,000 years, a rich Eastern culture, and a reputation as a safe travel destination, Vietnam has attracted increasing numbers of tourists from around the world Tourism has become a major driver of the economy, contributing significantly to Vietnam's GDP In 2005, tourism accounted for about 5% of the country's GDP, reflecting its important role in growth and development The country’s diverse attractions—from bustling cities to stunning rural scenery—continue to boost the travel and hospitality sectors and sustain local communities.
Vietnam, in 2006, recorded 3.6 million international arrivals and 17.5 million domestic travelers, with total tourism revenue estimated at US$3,187 billion (VND 51,000 billion) and more than one million direct and indirect jobs generated by the sector The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) predicted Vietnam would rank among the world's top ten major tourist destinations in the coming decade, with expectations of six million international arrivals and 30 million domestic trips in 2010 (Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, 2006).
Domestic tourists have consistently contributed to Vietnam's national tourism development and represent the primary market with strong growth potential for both the present and the future This potential is driven by favorable conditions such as easier travel within the country, rising living standards, and increasing disposable incomes among Vietnamese travelers As domestic tourism expands, Vietnam’s tourism sector faces challenges in enhancing service quality and better meeting travelers’ needs to sustain this momentum and continue delivering value for visitors and the economy.
Domestic travelers have markedly shaped Vietnam's tourism seasonality, a major challenge for many destinations Seasonality carries substantial economic weight and strongly influences the sustainable development of tourism To mitigate seasonal fluctuations, Vietnam's tourism sector should define the properties of seasonality, assess its impacts, and examine how these factors influence the decision-making behavior of domestic tourists By aligning policy, marketing, and infrastructure with these insights, stakeholders can smooth demand, optimize resource use, and promote resilient, sustainable growth in Vietnam’s tourism industry.
Overview the problems
Seasonality is one of the defining characteristics of global tourism, especially in tropical regions where extreme temperatures, monsoon rainfall, and humidity shift at predictable times each year Climate largely shapes tourism seasonality, drawing travelers to sea or cooler resorts in summer while the off-season’s cold keeps many away Institutional patterns also play a decisive role, including school holidays, industrial holidays, and calendar holidays Additionally, destination characteristics and marketing strategies can influence the shape of the seasonality curve.
Seasonality in specific destinations is a key area of study because of its impacts on tourism, as noted by Belisle & Hoy (1980), Dieke (1991), and Drakatos (1987) Seasonality affects all aspects of tourism, influencing both supply-side dynamics—marketing, labor markets, business finance, and operations—and demand-side decision making by tourists In Vietnam, the tourism sector faces a range of challenging problems in domestic tourist markets across different seasons, highlighting how seasonality shapes performance and strategy.
Quality of service is the most serious problem Vietnam’s tourism sector must solve to address seasonality In peak season, travel agencies and tour operators face extreme overload as domestic tourist numbers surge, triggering poor-quality outcomes such as shortages of accommodation, transportation, and tour guides; price volatility; unfair competition among firms; and constrained capacity at restaurants, hotels, and attractions Much of the literature on seasonality focuses on its economic impacts; for example, My V Nguyen, director of Lua Viet Travel Company, notes that pricing pressures lead to high main-season prices and a lack of financial balance in the off-season Many potential investors are deterred by the compressed operating period of tourism, a concern highlighted by Jeffrey and Hubbard.
Seasonality is a recurring feature in the tourism sector that shapes employment patterns, with Vietnam cited as a case where unemployment rises during the low season The increasing unemployment rate in the off-peak period is considered a universal problem From an environmental standpoint, there are disadvantages to seasonal fluctuations in demand and visitation in the high season Seasonality reflects concerns with the difficulty of ensuring efficient utilization of natural resources (Sutcliffe and Sinclair, 1980).
Seasonality in tourism is one of the most troublesome yet least understood phenomena, as Jang (2004) notes Many destinations suffer from seasonal fluctuations each year, yet efforts to mitigate this issue have been limited Although substantial academic research exists on this topic, there is no universal tourism seasonality theory, as Baum (2001) observed Moreover, seasonality is not a universal concept; its definition and impacts vary by destination, making it difficult to develop generic mitigation strategies Against this backdrop, there is a lack of empirical approaches explaining the properties and impacts of seasonality on tourism in Vietnam.
Attempts to solve the p ro b lem s
To understand the importance of seasonality in tourism, researchers worldwide have studied seasonality and its related issues from the 1970s to the present Numerous studies have aimed to identify the fundamental aspects of seasonality, guided by key resources such as A Guide to Analysis of Seasonality.
('BarOn, R R V (1 9 7 5 )), Seasonality and Local Labor m arket (Ball, R.M.
(1 9 8 9 )), Seasonality in Tourism : Is s u e s and problem s (Butler, 1994) or
Measuring Tourism Seasonality (Lundtorp, S (2 0 0 1 )) Some others approached seasonality of the developed tourism destinations that are considered significant efforts like Seasonal Concentration o f Tourism in G reece
A body of scholarly work on tourism seasonality—ranging from early analyses of Irish tourism (1973–1995) to later studies of monthly variations in Asian tourism to Australia—has advanced understanding of the properties, impacts, and implications of seasonal patterns worldwide Yet in several developing destinations, such as Vietnam, there remains a shortage of rigorous, science-based seasonality research, despite ongoing discussions by authorities and industry stakeholders in workshops and media outlets In Vietnam’s case, gaps in domestic tourist data infrastructure and in empirical models of tourist behavior remain unresolved These challenges create a strong impetus for up-to-date, methodologically sound research into seasonality and the factors shaping the holiday-making behavior of Vietnamese domestic tourists.
The research
To mitigate the impacts of tourism seasonality in Vietnam, this study investigates the factors influencing domestic tourists' decision-making during seasonal travel The analysis examines these factors from two perspectives—internal modeling and external modeling—to capture both personal determinants and external contextual drivers of travel behavior By identifying and explaining these influences, the research aims to provide sound, evidence-based conclusions that can inform strategic tourism development and policy in Vietnam.
The objectives of the research are as follow:
• To discover the profiles and habits of Vietnamese domestic tourists when they travel most in each different time of the year.
• To evaluate the factors, including the push and pull ones, affect on decision making behavior of Vietnam ese domestic tourists in relation to seasonality.
• To rank the degree of importance of these influential factors.
• To define the key elements in encouraging domestic tourists travel in low tourism season.
• To give some worth recommendations to contribute in mitigating seasonality and its impacts in Vietnam tourism.
This study supports similar research by examining seasonal processes and by increasing awareness and accountability among tourism managers, local authorities, and service providers about seasonality, its impacts, and effective solutions, as well as domestic tourists' behavior.
Final findings in this study are drawn from two sources of data—survey data and statistical data—with analysis primarily driven by the survey results The survey sample comprises 230 tourists living in Hanoi and neighboring provinces Limitations and related shortcomings are acknowledged and discussed in detail in Part Five.
An overview of the t h e s is
Seven sections are stated in detail in the thesis as follow
The introduction mentions the backgrounds, the overview and attempts to solve the problems as well as the overall structure of the main text.
This section outlines the rationale for examining seasonality and the factors influencing domestic tourists' behavior, highlighting the academic significance of the study It also discusses the thesis’s contributions to the tourism industry and the wider economy, illustrating how seasonal patterns shape demand, guide policy and planning, and support sustainable growth in travel and regional development.
This section highlights an overview of most popular researches about seasonality and the relevant literatures; and comments the gaps that shed lights on forming the research question.
The forth section specifies research method, including research questions, research aim s, research tools, research hypotheses and other relating issues.
The findings of the research are identified separately and compared with the research hypotheses as well as other studies and existing literature in this part.
Part 6 : Im plications o f the findings
This section will show the implications of the findings in supporting for tourism authorities, m anagers, service suppliers and other relevant stakeholders so as to mitigate seasonality in Vietnam
All the key findings, solutions of the research and opportunities for future research are summarized in the last conclusion section.
2.1 The rationale and significance of the research topic
Seasonality has long been considered as one of the most distinctive features of tourism The natural and institutional phenomenon is two basis origins of seasonality, although there is a significance level of interdependence between the two (Butler, 1994) Seasonality in demand is also affected by the introduction of new tourism destinations and the differential pricing of tourism products (BarO n, 1975) Due to the exacerbating impacts of seasonality on both public and private sectors of tourism and other relevant aspects, it may be the most typical characteristic of tourism on a global basis.
Seasonality in the context o f Vietnam tourism
Located in the tropical monsoon region, Vietnam tourism is also affected strongly by seasonality The collected information sources note that the busiest season is the sum m er, but public holidays and weekends throughout the year are popular The winter season Is much quieter while shoulder season is festival one after Tet However, because of the different monsoon patterns and clim ate zones for Vietnam , seasonality varies depending on whether you are in the north, center, or south (Buckley, 2005) The challenges of seasonality are rather than more intractable in the Northern.
According to Butler's comprehensive review, natural and institutional conditions strongly shape seasonality in Vietnam The country’s wide latitude range, diverse topography, and varied natural seasons cause climate differences from place to place, with notable disparities in temperature, humidity, and rainfall Vietnam’s more than 3,000 km of coastline and mountains accounting for about 40 percent of its terrain further influence the types and timing of tourism, as different destinations attract visitors at different times of year Domestic travelers often favor the cool mountain air or the sun-sea-sand experiences of summer on famous beaches In the north, Ha Long Bay, for example, sees peak tourist activity in July and August, according to Michael Buckley.
According to the 2005 Moon's Vietnam, Cambodia & Laos guidebook author, November to March marks the low season for northern Vietnam, when foggy, cold weather and occasional rain reduce visibility Tourism seasonality in Vietnam is influenced by public-sector factors such as school holidays, industrial holidays, and national events, which shape holiday-making behavior and travel timing VNAT notes that domestic tourism begins to rise sharply at the end of April and into early May—around the national holiday period of April 30–May 1 From that day onward for the next three months, the high season drives tourism activity, fueled by long summer school holidays and enterprise holiday policies.
The impacts of seasonality on Vietnam tourism
Vietnam's tourism sector has been expanding and diversifying its offerings while increasingly focusing on standard quality service Yet a lack of consistent high-quality service remains widespread during the peak season, when demand from domestic travelers outstrips supply and accommodation and transportation capacity cannot keep up Even popular resorts such as Tuan Chau in Ha Long and Van Chai in Sam Son often face room shortages at the height of the season Representatives from travel agencies report frequent price volatility, with rates rising by 30 to 50 percent, while service quality is not always guaranteed Unfair competition among travel agents and tour companies also occurs Some firms are formed in the high season to offer the cheapest tours and then close down, which damages overall tour quality and tourist satisfaction and leaves travelers with negative impressions as the travel season approaches.
• The labor markets: A nature and quality of employment are considered as the most important factors to be affected by tourism seasonality In
2005, more than one million direct and indirect employments have
Vietnam's tourism sector has significantly contributed to the country's development, and the national tourism authority projected a need for about 1.4 million tourism workers by 2010 However, sustainable employment remains scarce, creating skill gaps in the industry, particularly a shortage of professional tour guides There is a clear imbalance between peak-season and off-peak-season employment, with a reliance on short-term jobs that leads to high levels of off-season unemployment.
1 993) A problem of employment also makes many difficulties for employers to recruit skillful staffs and retain them.
Tourism, a major form of human activity, induces environmental fluctuations in destination regions, with impacts that intensify as visitor numbers surge during peak seasons In Vietnam, the environmental effects of tourism include pollution from vehicles, litter dropped by tourists, disturbance to habitats, and damage to landscape features Crowding and overuse during peak periods amplify these pressures, making the environmental impacts more visible and stressing fragile ecosystems.
Seasonality in tourism affects the economy in several interconnected ways It creates income disparities among tourism suppliers across seasons, with many travel companies facing financial challenges during the low season when revenue from domestic tourists falls short of payments The local economy's income from tourism also depends on the expenditure levels of domestic visitors, often yielding only modest earnings during quieter periods Additionally, seasonality influences investors' decisions, who weigh the short operating period of tourism businesses against potential profits Overall, seasonality in tourism introduces higher risk compared with other industries, though this risk is not as severe as the two earlier economic impacts described.
The rationale of the research topic
Recognizing the full spectrum of seasonality effects, this study highlights the importance of mitigating seasonal volatility in Vietnam’s tourism and aims to raise awareness among tourism managers, local authorities, and service providers It identifies the factors shaping domestic tourists’ decision-making and offers practical recommendations on how domestic demand influences seasonal patterns This work reinforces the rationale that the domestic tourist market is a key growth engine for Vietnam’s tourism now and in the future, with an aspirational target of reaching 30 million visitor arrivals.
2010 Moreover, one of the reasons In really understanding seasonality in tourism is a lack of In-depth and longitudinal research In the context of Vietnam.
The significance o f the research topic
This study investigates the influential factors shaping holiday-making by domestic tourists in relation to the seasonality of Vietnam tourism, analyzed through economic and behavior-modeling lenses It examines both external (outside) and internal (inside) drivers and ranks them by their degree of importance to reveal how seasonal patterns influence travel choices The findings contribute to academic fields such as marketing, consumer behavior, strategic management, and human resources, while also offering practical support to researchers, tourism educators, and professionals in the domain Overall, the work aims to advance understanding of domestic tourism demand and provide evidence-based insights into seasonal travel behavior in Vietnam.
Recognizing the seasonality challenges and the gaps in academic research on Vietnam's tourism sector, this thesis aims to contribute meaningfully by identifying and analyzing the factors that influence the decision-making behavior of Vietnamese domestic tourists across seasons, offering actionable insights for managers, businesses, local authorities, service providers, and other stakeholders to better navigate seasonal dynamics in tourism.
For business, the contributions of the research are:
• To provide for businesses about the summarized profiles and habits, as well as holiday taking behavior of Vietnamese domestic tourists when they travel.
• To rank of the influential factors in domestic tourists' behavior on seasonality so as businesses know what issue they should concern the most.
This article delivers practical recommendations to mitigate seasonality in Vietnam's tourism industry and explores the resulting implications for related business fields such as marketing, strategy, and human resources It advocates diversifying product offerings, targeted seasonal campaigns, and partnerships with local communities to smooth demand across the year, supported by data-driven marketing and resilient staffing models By connecting tourism strategies with adjacent sectors, the piece provides actionable insights to boost profitability, sustainability, and customer experience throughout all seasons.
For concerning parties, the contributions are as follow:
This initiative seeks to raise awareness and strengthen responsibility among tourism managers, local authorities, and service providers regarding seasonality in tourism, its impacts, and practical solutions, while also examining the holiday-making behavior of domestic tourists to inform smarter planning and sustainable destination management.
• To support rem arkably for tourism researchers, lecturers and investors in identifying the seasonality in relation to tourists' behavior.
• To give a theoretical fram ework for the related researches in the future.
Seasonality stands out as the defining characteristic of global tourism and is frequently treated as a challenge to be managed through policy, marketing, and operational strategies (Tom Baum, 2001, p 2) Yet its relevance is not universal; the degree and nature of seasonality depend on the unique features of each destination Since the 1970s, researchers have identified the problems posed by seasonality while also noting its positive contributions to understanding its patterns, impacts, and implications This section presents six main parts that review existing seasonality studies and practices worldwide and in Vietnam It also highlights how influential factors shaping decision-making behavior, as identified in academic research, support exploring seasonality within the Vietnamese tourism context.