1. Trang chủ
  2. » Giáo Dục - Đào Tạo

The impacts of transport infrastructure on international trade in lao pdr

237 1 0
Tài liệu đã được kiểm tra trùng lặp

Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)

Tài liệu hạn chế xem trước, để xem đầy đủ mời bạn chọn Tải xuống

THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU

Thông tin cơ bản

Tiêu đề The impacts of transport infrastructure on international trade in Lao PDR
Tác giả Keodara Vongsavanthong
Người hướng dẫn Assoc.Prof.Dr. Ta Van Loi
Trường học National Economics University
Chuyên ngành Business Administration
Thể loại PhD Dissertation
Năm xuất bản 2025
Thành phố Hanoi
Định dạng
Số trang 237
Dung lượng 2,53 MB

Các công cụ chuyển đổi và chỉnh sửa cho tài liệu này

Cấu trúc

  • CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION (11)
    • 1.1. Rationale (11)
    • 1.2. Research objectives (14)
    • 1.3. Research questions (14)
    • 1.4. Research scope (15)
    • 1.5. Research methodology (16)
    • 1.6. Research contribution (17)
    • 1.7. Research structure (19)
  • CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ABOUT IMPACT OF (20)
    • 2.1. Literature reviews (20)
      • 2.1.1. Literature review on transport infrastructure (20)
      • 2.1.2. Literature review on international trade and Laos’ international trade (22)
      • 2.1.3. Literature review on the development of transportation infrastructure and its (24)
    • 2.2. Research gap from the literature review (32)
  • CHAPTER 3: THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS ON THE IMPACT OF (34)
    • 3.1. Conceptualization of transportation infrastructure and international trade (34)
    • 3.2. The strategic role of transportation infrastructure in facilitating (35)
    • 3.3. Theoretical foundations and business administration perspectives on (37)
      • 3.3.1. Classical and neoclassical trade theories and transportation infrastructure (37)
      • 3.3.2. New economic geography and spatial economics perspectives (38)
      • 3.3.3. Business logistics and supply chain management paradigms (39)
      • 3.3.4. Institutional economic theory and transportation governance (40)
      • 3.3.5. Gravity models and trade cost analysis (40)
      • 3.3.6. Regional integration theories and cross-border infrastructure (41)
    • 3.4. Conceptual research framework: Transportation infrastructure- (42)
    • 3.5. Regional cooperation mechanisms and cross-border transportation (44)
  • CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY (48)
    • 4.1. Research process (48)
    • 4.2. Sampling framework and data collection strategy (50)
      • 4.2.1. Sampling design and theoretical justification (50)
      • 4.2.2. Data collection implementation and response rate analysis (51)
    • 4.3. Research analysis approaches (52)
      • 4.3.1. Qualitative analysis (52)
      • 4.3.2. Econometric Modelling Strategy (55)
    • 4.4. Theoretical Model (59)
    • 4.5. Data collection strategy (61)
      • 4.5.1. Temporal scope justification (61)
      • 4.5.2. Secondary data sources and acquisition (61)
      • 4.5.3. Transportation infrastructure variables (62)
      • 4.5.4. Trade partner selection (62)
      • 4.5.5. Data collection (63)
    • 4.6. Measurement and operationalisation of transportation infrastructure (65)
      • 4.6.1. Road network extension (total road length) (65)
      • 4.6.2. Road quality (paved road length) (65)
      • 4.6.3. Inland waterway infrastructure (number of inland water ferries) (66)
      • 4.6.4. Air connectivity (number of airlines) (66)
      • 4.6.5. Railway development (railway length) (66)
      • 4.6.6. Cross-border connectivity (number of mekong bridges) (67)
      • 4.6.7. Freight transportation capacity (number of truck registrations) (67)
      • 4.6.8. Digital connectivity (number of broadband internet users) (67)
      • 4.6.9. Geographic distance (68)
    • 4.7. Analytical strategy (68)
      • 4.7.1. Qualitative analysis implementation (68)
      • 4.7.2. Quantitative analysis implementation (69)
  • CHAPTER 5: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORTATION (70)
    • 5.2. The features of Lao P.D.R for transportation infrastructure and (72)
    • 5.3. Transportation infrastructure and international trade nexus: a contextual (74)
      • 5.3.1. Evolution and current configuration of transportation infrastructure in Lao (74)
      • 5.3.2. International trade evolution and contemporary dynamics in Lao PDR (87)
      • 5.3.3. Nexus analysis: transportation infrastructure impacts on international trade in (92)
    • 5.4. Econometric assessment of transportation infrastructure effects on (98)
      • 5.4.1. Descriptive statistics for regression estimations (98)
      • 5.4.2. Aggregate Empirical Findings: Gravity Model and Infrastructure Elasticities (100)
      • 5.4.3. Partner-specific elasticities: differential infrastructure effects across trading (102)
      • 5.4.4. Infrastructure effects on major bilateral trading relationships (105)
      • 5.4.5. Post-estimation diagnostic tests (126)
    • 5.5. Comparative Analysis of Transportation Infrastructure Utilisation by Major (130)
      • 5.5.1. Multimodal Infrastructure Development Patterns and Trade Facilitation (130)
      • 5.5.2. Road transportation utilisation strategies and cross-border integration (134)
      • 5.5.3. Railway development approaches and intermodal connectivity (135)
      • 5.5.4. Waterway Transportation and Multimodal Integration Strategies (137)
      • 5.5.5. Comparative integration models and strategic implications (138)
  • CHAPTER 6: DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATION OF ENHANCING (0)
    • 6.1. Orientation and targets of enhancing transportation infrastructure and (141)
      • 6.2.1. Prioritizing road infrastructure development and maintenance (142)
      • 6.2.2. Enhancing rail connectivity and intermodal integration (144)
      • 6.2.3. Improving inland waterway transportation and port infrastructure (145)
      • 6.2.4. Addressing nonphysical barriers to trade and promoting trade facilitation 137 6.2.5. Strengthening regional cooperation and economic integration (147)
      • 6.2.6. Encouraging private sector participation in infrastructure development (151)
      • 6.2.7. Developing a comprehensive and integrated transportation infrastructure (153)
      • 6.2.8. Mobilizing financial resources for sustainable infrastructure development (155)

Nội dung

Research objectives The general objective of this research is to identify and analyze the key challenges and opportunities for improving transportation infrastructure and promoting inte

INTRODUCTION

Rationale

Transportation is a cornerstone of a country’s economy and development; a well-developed transport network boosts logistics and distribution, lowers transport and communication costs, and reduces delivery times, thereby driving economic growth It also facilitates the transfer of information and technology, helping farmers boost productivity, create rural jobs, and move produce to markets in towns and cities, linking regional and international trade through transport infrastructure In a global economy, opportunities hinge on the international mobility of people, goods, and information, and the link between transport infrastructure and international trade is evident: higher trade levels typically depend on well-connected networks and dense transport systems Efficient transport yields positive multipliers such as improved market accessibility, employment, and increased investment Conversely, high transportation costs can hinder trade, with costs varying by geography, distance to major markets, product type, development level, and infrastructure; landlocked countries often face transport costs about 70 percent higher than other developing economies Therefore, examining how transportation infrastructure affects international trade in landlocked countries can inform economic development, for example by expanding farm-to-market roads that connect rural farmers to domestic and regional demand and broaden access to larger foreign markets.

Lao PDR, a landlocked and least-developed country, has posted average GDP growth around 6% over recent decades, contributing to poverty reduction to about 19% in 2017, with GDP per capita rising to USD 2,550 in 2018 before dropping to USD 1,880 in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic The services sector remains the largest GDP contributor, accounting for roughly 47% in 2018, followed by agriculture, fisheries and forestry (17.9%) and electricity (12.3%), while the fiscal deficit has risen under external debt pressures (WTO, 2020) The country is integrated with regional partners Thailand, Vietnam and China and is expanding into international trade as transport infrastructure and logistics services improve However, current logistics constraints—limited cross-border coordination on procedures, inefficient customs clearance at border checkpoints, fragmented and poor-quality transport infrastructure, high shipping costs and infrequent services, delays in tracking consignments and in clearance of goods, absence of cold storage facilities, and gaps in product certification—significantly obstruct trade Road transport dominates Lao PDR, handling 86% of freight weight-kilometers and 98% of passenger-kilometers, with air, water and rail playing smaller roles in the early stages of rail development Low population density and varied topography raise transport costs, especially in upland rural areas with limited infrastructure and all-weather accessibility, hindering subregional trade and freight movements (ADB, 2011, p.2) Since economic reforms in 1986, Lao PDR has pursued international integration through the National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP 2nd), also known as the New Economic Mechanism.

From the National Economic Management (NEM) to the current Eighth National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP 8th), the Lao government has set an important target: to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and to graduate from the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) status by 2020 Expanding international trade is viewed as a key pathway to reaching this target, according to the Ministry of Planning, Lao PDR.

Laos has developed not only hard infrastructure but also soft infrastructure, including the reform and improvement of laws, and regional and bilateral trade agreements, to advance development The country has transportation agreements with neighboring states, with China being its largest trading partner, and participates in ASEAN’s Framework Agreement on Goods in Transit, Multimodal Transport, Interstate Transport and Cross-Border Passenger Transport, as well as the Greater Mekong Subregion Cross-Border Transport Agreement On the international front, Laos is involved in the UNESCAP Intergovernmental Agreements on the Asian Highway Network, Trans-Asian Railway Network, and Dry Ports As a least-developed country and an ASEAN member, Laos reduced 96.3% of its tariff lines to zero percent in 2018 to support the ASEAN Free Trade Area Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2013, the economy has performed well, aided by construction activity, electricity and financial services, with average real GDP growth of about 7.3% per year To comply with WTO requirements, the country needs to revise more than 90 laws and regulations and operate 24 border posts under the Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA), while implementing a Trade Facilitation Road Map that emphasizes cross-border cooperation and regional integration These measures have shortened border clearance times and increased trade, with exports rising from 19% of GDP in 2013 to 29% in 2018, imports growing from 25.5% to 34%, and foreign direct investment rising from 3.5% to 4.8% of GDP, alongside growth in tourism However, despite open-door or New Economic Mechanism (NEM) policies to attract FDI and promote international trade, Laos remains land-locked with relatively poor transportation infrastructure, which constrains trade and socio-economic development Since the early 2000s, the government has pursued a “land-linked” strategy in line with regional and subregional development trends—especially within ASEAN, the Greater Mekong Subregion, and the Triangle Development Area—highlighting transport infrastructure development as central to achieving the 2020 vision for the country.

Past research shows that landlocked countries could double their exports if they gain access to the sea, and that export growth is also boosted by stronger regional integration among landlocked states The expansion occurs not only across borders but also within regions, as interregional transportation, trade, and regional comparative advantages enhance production and trade When interregional transportation infrastructure is developed, trade expands through lower costs and reduced energy use, while logistics performance positively impacts both exports and imports, with a stronger effect on exports as a share of international trade The distance to trading partners and to landlocked neighbors generally dampens trade, underscoring that improvements in roads, rails, ports, and telecommunications can significantly elevate trade performance Taken together, these findings highlight the critical role of physical and logistical infrastructure in shaping international trade opportunities for landlocked regions.

Research objectives

This study identifies and analyzes the key challenges and opportunities facing Lao PDR's transportation infrastructure and international trade, with the aim of informing policy decisions and investment strategies that advance sustainable economic development and deepen regional integration.

An assessment of Lao PDR’s transportation infrastructure maps the current state of roads, railways, inland waterways, and ports, evaluating asset condition, network connectivity, and capacity across the country The analysis identifies major gaps and bottlenecks—from incomplete regional linkages and aging assets to limited multimodal integration and financing for maintenance—that hinder trade, raise logistics costs, and constrain economic development By pinpointing where infrastructure and institutional constraints impede the movement of goods and people, the study highlights priority interventions to improve resilience, shorten transit times, strengthen cross-border corridors, and unlock growth potential through a more efficient, interconnected transport system.

This study examines nonphysical barriers to trade in Lao PDR, prioritizing customs procedures, border management, and regulatory frameworks, with the goal of identifying bottlenecks that increase time and cost for cross-border commerce It analyzes how procedural inefficiencies, fragmented agency coordination, and opaque rules impede trade flows and affect importers, exporters, and logistics providers Building on these insights, the research proposes concrete strategies to streamline trade processes in Lao PDR, including the digitization of customs, the implementation of a single-window clearance system, risk-based inspections, harmonization of standards, and enhanced interagency cooperation, to reduce clearance times and transaction costs The overarching objective is to promote more efficient, inclusive growth through improved cross-border trade in Lao PDR.

- To evaluate the role of regional cooperation and economic integration in promoting transportation infrastructure development and trade in Lao PDR, and identify opportunities for leveraging regional initiatives and partnerships

This article analyzes the potential for private sector participation in transportation infrastructure development in Lao PDR and outlines practical strategies to attract and leverage private sector resources and expertise while ensuring the sustainability and inclusivity of investments Key recommendations include establishing a transparent policy and regulatory framework for public-private partnerships (PPPs), clear project pipelines, and risk-sharing mechanisms that reduce investment risk and improve project bankability It also advocates diversified financing—combining private capital with public funding, blended finance, and long-term instruments—to mobilize resources without compromising affordability or social equity To maximize impact, the approach emphasizes capacity building for local firms, strengthening procurement and project management capabilities, and embedding robust social and environmental safeguards to promote inclusive access and resilience Prioritized transport corridors and connectivity projects should target high-growth regions, improve cross-border trade, reduce logistics costs, and support both urban mobility and rural accessibility Ongoing monitoring, data-driven evaluation, and transparent stakeholder engagement will sustain investor confidence and deliver sustainable, inclusive transport infrastructure in Lao PDR.

By addressing targeted objectives, this study delivers a comprehensive, strategic assessment of the challenges and opportunities in Lao PDR's transportation infrastructure to promote international trade The findings and recommendations inform policy and investment decisions, support Lao PDR's development goals, and enhance the country's position in both the regional and global economy.

Research questions

In line with the research objectives outlined in the previous section, this study seeks to address the following key research questions:

Lao PDR's transport infrastructure comprises a growing but uneven road network, a landmark cross-border rail link from Boten to Vientiane, developing inland waterways on the Mekong, and a limited but strategically located port system Road transport remains the backbone for most freight and passenger movement, but decades of underinvestment have left many rural roads unpaved or poorly maintained, bridges aging, and maintenance cycles inadequate, which raises costs and travel times The new rail line adds an important regional connection to China, yet the rail network remains narrow, with limited freight capacity, few feeder lines, and incomplete last‑mile connectivity to industrial zones Inland waterways on the Mekong offer substantial potential for cost‑effective bulk transport, but navigation is seasonally constrained, with dredging and safety infrastructure still underdeveloped and limited vertical integration with other transport modes Port capacity is concentrated and underutilized, with bottlenecks at border and customs posts and insufficient intermodal terminals to move goods rapidly between ships, rail, and road The result is higher logistics costs and slower trade growth, as well as reduced regional integration with neighboring countries, underscoring the need for coordinated investments in intermodal hubs, border efficiency, rail expansion, rural road upgrading, and Mekong river navigation improvements to unlock Lao PDR's trade and development potential.

Nonphysical barriers to trade, including customs procedures, border management, and regulatory frameworks, shape Lao PDR's trade performance by adding time delays, costs, and uncertainty for traders These barriers affect export competitiveness, supply-chain reliability, and integration into regional value chains, especially given Lao PDR's landlocked position and reliance on neighboring countries To streamline trade and facilitate cross-border commerce, strategies such as risk-based inspections, single-window customs platforms, and the harmonization of tariffs and product standards can reduce transaction costs and improve predictability Enhancing border management through trusted trader programs, interoperable IT systems, and coordinated risk management across agencies can shorten clearance times while strengthening security and formal trade Reforming regulatory frameworks to align with international best practices, simplify licensing, and streamline permit processes boosts business certainty and investor confidence A coherent policy package that combines automation, interagency coordination, and regional cooperation—including full implementation of Trade Facilitation Agreement provisions and ASEAN integration—can substantially raise Lao PDR's trade performance.

Regional cooperation and economic integration significantly influence Lao PDR's transportation infrastructure development and its capacity to promote international trade By coordinating cross-border transport corridors, harmonizing standards, and leveraging regional financing facilities, Lao PDR can accelerate road, rail, and logistics investments, shorten transit times, and reduce trade costs Engagement with regional initiatives such as the Greater Mekong Subregion, ASEAN integration, and bilateral/multilateral trade agreements expands market access, attracts investment, and accelerates technology transfer Strategic partnerships with neighboring countries and development institutions can align policy reforms with infrastructure projects, streamline customs procedures, and strengthen regional supply chains To maximize impact, Lao PDR should align national plans with regional roadmaps, prioritize high-potential corridors, and participate actively in joint implementation and knowledge-sharing programs Collectively, these efforts can alleviate infrastructure bottlenecks, boost export capacity, and help Lao PDR emerge as a more competitive hub for regional and international trade.

Private sector participation in Lao PDR’s transportation infrastructure offers significant potential to mobilize capital, technical expertise, and delivery efficiency through models such as public‑private partnerships (PPPs), concessions, and blended finance To attract and leverage private resources, the government should establish a clear, predictable regulatory framework; a robust project pipeline; competitive, transparent tendering; and risk‑sharing arrangements supported by bankable feasibility studies and standardized contract templates Financing strategies could include milestone‑based payments, currency risk management, and a mix of concessional finance and private investment aligned with Lao PDR’s budget and macro‑fiscal context Sustainability and inclusivity must be embedded through environmental and social safeguards, climate resilience, local employment and value‑chain development, and affordable access for rural and underserved communities, guided by performance‑based operations and lifecycle costing Capacity building, targeted incentives for domestic firms, and dedicated project preparation support can broaden local participation, while independent oversight and ongoing monitoring ensure accountability and quality Taken together, a coherent policy framework, bankable project structures, and strong governance enable Lao PDR to harness private sector efficiency to deliver transport infrastructure that improves connectivity, lowers logistics costs, and promotes inclusive growth.

By examining key research questions, this study provides a thorough assessment of the challenges and opportunities in Lao PDR's transportation infrastructure and its role in promoting international trade The findings will inform practical and policy recommendations designed to strengthen transport networks, facilitate cross-border commerce, and advance sustainable economic development and regional integration in Lao PDR.

Research scope

This study identifies and analyzes the key challenges and opportunities for improving transportation infrastructure and promoting international trade in Lao PDR, offering a focused assessment of factors that influence transport development and trade facilitation The scope of the study encompasses several areas essential to understanding how to enhance Lao PDR's transportation networks and its role in international commerce.

- Current state of Lao PDR's transportation infrastructure (roads, railways, inland waterways, and ports)

- Nonphysical barriers to trade (customs procedures, border management, and regulatory frameworks)

- Role of regional cooperation and economic integration in promoting transportation infrastructure development and trade

- Potential for private sector participation in transportation infrastructure development

- Need for a comprehensive and integrated transportation infrastructure strategy

- Financing options and mechanisms for supporting transportation infrastructure development

This study employs a mixed-methods research design that integrates quantitative analysis of trade and infrastructure data with qualitative insights from stakeholder consultations and case studies, drawing on a broad spectrum of primary and secondary sources.

This study is scoped to Lao PDR and centers on its transportation infrastructure, including the road network, railway system, inland waterways, and ports It examines Lao PDR’s geographic position and its connections with neighboring countries within regional cooperation and integration efforts, notably the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) program and the ASEAN Economic Community The analysis considers how these transport networks support cross-border trade, economic activity, and development, highlighting the role of roads, rails, waterways, and port facilities in linking Lao PDR to regional corridors The findings underscore how Lao PDR’s transport system interacts with GMS and ASEAN frameworks to influence growth, connectivity, and regional integration.

This study spans 2000–2023 to provide a comprehensive assessment of Lao PDR's transportation infrastructure development, its challenges, and the resulting impact on international trade over the past two decades, while also outlining future infrastructure investments and trade strategies as detailed in key government documents such as the 8th Five-Year National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2016–2020) and the Vision 2030 and 10-Year Socio-Economic Development Strategy (2016–2025).

Due to limited data availability and the rapidly evolving transportation infrastructure landscape in Lao PDR (Laos), this study delivers a comprehensive, strategic assessment of the challenges and opportunities in strengthening transportation networks and promoting international trade Despite data constraints, the analysis identifies key bottlenecks, investment priorities, and policy options designed to accelerate infrastructure development, improve logistics efficiency, and facilitate trade The findings and recommendations are intended to inform policy and investment decisions in the coming years, helping Lao PDR advance sustainable growth and regional integration.

Research methodology

Adopting a sequential mixed-methods design, this dissertation integrates quantitative econometric modeling with qualitative institutional analysis to investigate how transportation infrastructure development influences international trade in Lao PDR The methodological framework comprises two complementary analytical components that systematically address the research questions outlined in Section 1.3, yielding triangulated evidence on the links between infrastructure investment, trade performance, and policy mechanisms in the Lao PDR economy.

This study employs an extended gravity model to quantify the differential effects of physical infrastructure on Lao PDR’s bilateral trade with 10 principal partners over 2010–2022 Using panel data and multivariate regression with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors, it estimates how road length, paved-road share, cross-border connectivity infrastructure, and transport service capacity shape trade volumes The analysis specifies multiple regression models to identify both aggregate infrastructure effects and partner-specific elasticities, enabling a comparative assessment of infrastructure impacts across bilateral trade relationships.

The qualitative component comprises institutional analysis based on semi-structured interviews (n=9) with key stakeholders in the transportation and trade sectors, including government officials, private sector representatives, and international development partners The interview protocol explored infrastructure development priorities, cross-border integration challenges, and policy coordination mechanisms Thematic content analysis of the interview transcripts identified recurrent patterns and institutional constraints This qualitative dimension provides contextual depth and practitioner perspectives that complement the quantitative findings, offering actionable insights into implementation challenges and policy considerations that econometric approaches alone cannot capture.

Data triangulation across methodological components strengthens analytical validity and enables a comprehensive assessment of both direct infrastructure effects and their institutional mediators in a landlocked developing country context By integrating multivariate regression analysis with qualitative institutional investigation, this approach systematically addresses the inherent complexity of infrastructure–trade relationships in Lao PDR while maintaining methodological rigor throughout the analysis The result is the ability to identify both generalizable patterns and context-specific dynamics shaping Lao PDR's evolving transportation and trade landscape.

Research contribution

This dissertation makes several substantive theoretical and empirical contributions to the scholarly discourse on transportation infrastructure and international trade in landlocked developing countries:

This study advances a comprehensive econometric framework to analyze the differential impacts of transportation infrastructure components on international trade flows By disaggregating infrastructure into road networks, paved roads, cross-border connectivity, and intermodal facilities and estimating their elasticities, the approach extends current theoretical models that rely on aggregate infrastructure indices This granular analysis enables the identification of specific infrastructure typologies that yield disproportionate trade benefits, especially for landlocked economies, guiding targeted investment and policy decisions to boost trade performance.

This dissertation provides a systematic comparative analysis of infrastructure elasticities across Lao PDR's principal bilateral trade relationships Employing partner-specific regression models, the study reveals substantial heterogeneity in infrastructure sensitivity among major trading partners, demonstrating that infrastructure improvements yield asymmetric benefits across different bilateral trade corridors This micro-level approach transcends conventional macro-level studies by capturing the nuanced spatial dynamics of infrastructure connectivity within specific geographic and institutional contexts.

This study develops an integrated conceptual framework that synthesizes physical infrastructure determinants with nonphysical trade facilitation factors, extending prior models that focus mainly on tangible infrastructure by incorporating complementary elements such as formal employment structure, logistics performance, and trade policy dimensions The framework clarifies the complex interdependencies among physical connectivity, human capital development, and institutional coordination, and shows how these interactions shape infrastructure effectiveness and overall trade efficiency.

An empirically grounded theoretical proposition shows that Lao PDR can transition from a landlocked to a land-linked economy by quantifying the trade-boosting effects of strategic infrastructure, notably the Lao-China Railway and cross-border economic corridors The study demonstrates how these investments expand market access, elevate trade flows, and drive spatial economic reconfiguration within regional integration initiatives This provides a solid theoretical foundation for viewing transportation infrastructure as a catalyst for connectivity-driven growth in Lao PDR and its regional partners.

These contributions advance scholarly understanding of the infrastructure-trade nexus in landlocked developing economies and provide an empirical foundation for evidence-based transportation and trade policy formulation Through a clear methodological approach, analytical framework, and robust empirical findings, the study establishes a solid basis for subsequent research on infrastructure-driven trade facilitation in comparable geopolitical contexts.

Research structure

This dissertation is organized into six chapters, each focusing on a specific aspect of the research:

Introduction: This chapter presents the background, problem statement, research objectives, research scope, and the overall structure of the dissertation

Literature review: This chapter surveys the existing research on transportation infrastructure and international trade, emphasizing how transport connectivity shapes trade costs, efficiency, and competitiveness in developing economies It highlights pervasive challenges—financing gaps, policy and governance bottlenecks, and incomplete value chains—while identifying opportunities to unlock growth through strategic infrastructure upgrades Focusing on Lao PDR, the review analyzes country-specific constraints and potential policy measures to enhance regional integration, reduce trade barriers, and attract investment in roads, ports, and logistics systems The synthesis integrates theoretical insights and empirical evidence to clarify the role of transport infrastructure in promoting inclusive development and sustained trade performance.

Theoretical framework: This chapter discusses the theoretical foundations underpinning the research, including theories of international trade, infrastructure development, and regional cooperation and integration

This chapter outlines the research methodology, detailing the study design and the methods used to collect and analyze data, and it addresses the limitations and ethical considerations that shape the investigation The section covers the overall study design, specific data collection procedures, and the data analysis techniques used to interpret results, with attention to transparency and reproducibility It also discusses study limitations, including potential biases and constraints on generalizability, and outlines the ethical considerations guiding the research, such as informed consent, participant confidentiality, and compliance with relevant ethical standards.

This chapter presents the research findings organized around the study’s core themes and objectives: the current condition of transportation infrastructure in Lao PDR, the impact of nonphysical barriers to trade, and the potential for private sector participation and regional cooperation to address these challenges The analysis highlights gaps in Lao PDR’s transport network, the role of policy and regulatory barriers, and opportunities for private investment and cross-border collaboration to boost regional trade resilience Overall, the findings offer actionable insights for policymakers, investors, and regional partners seeking to improve connectivity and trade efficiency in Lao PDR.

This chapter presents practical and policy recommendations to improve Lao PDR's transportation infrastructure and promote international trade, grounded in the study's findings and informed by best practices from other countries The recommendations cover concrete actions in infrastructure investment, regulatory reform, logistics efficiency, and cross-border connectivity, emphasizing sustainable funding, transparent procurement, and data-driven planning It also discusses the implications for future research and development in Lao PDR, outlining priority topics, remaining knowledge gaps, and the steps needed to advance transport and trade competitiveness.

This dissertation delivers a concise synthesis of the study’s main findings and contributions, clarifying how the results advance knowledge on infrastructure development and trade promotion in Lao PDR It also discusses the potential impact of these findings on policy and practice, including implications for investment priorities, cross-border connectivity, and regional competitiveness, and sets out concrete future directions for research and strategic action to accelerate infrastructure upgrades and strengthen Lao PDR’s trade promotion agenda.

LITERATURE REVIEW ABOUT IMPACT OF

Literature reviews

2.1.1 Literature review on transport infrastructure

Transportation infrastructure in Laos is a cornerstone of economic growth and trade facilitation, and a growing body of literature shows that strategic infrastructure investment drives sustainable development across the country The most impactful areas—electricity, air transportation, and telecommunications—deliver essential services while boosting trade facilitation and international connectivity, strengthening Laos’s linkages with regional and global markets (Keothephar & Srithilat, 2024).

As a landlocked country, Laos relies heavily on its transport networks to connect with international markets, a condition shaped by geographic constraints that poses challenges for trade connectivity and the development of transportation infrastructure (Kuştepeli et al., 2012) In response, the Lao government has prioritized infrastructure investment and implemented policies to attract both domestic and foreign investment in the sector (Keothephar & Srithilat, 2024).

Investment in paving Laos’s road network is a cornerstone of the country’s transportation infrastructure, strengthening international trade and price integration with neighboring economies (Celbis et al., 2015) These road improvements facilitate the movement of goods and help reduce regional inequality, with rural areas gaining the most Enhanced road connectivity allows farmers and remote businesses to access markets more easily, creating new economic opportunities and improving livelihoods.

Laos's air transport development, driven by airport expansion and modernization, has strengthened international connectivity and spurred tourism and business activity, while aviation growth has also boosted goods transport, trade, and economic development (Kuştepeli et al., 2012).

Laos’s telecommunications infrastructure has become a key driver of trade and connectivity, delivering reliable and affordable telecom services that enable efficient information exchange and smoother transactions for businesses in both domestic and international markets The expansion of internet connectivity has unlocked new opportunities in e-commerce and digital trade, helping Lao enterprises reach a broader customer base and participate more effectively in the global economy.

Despite notable improvements in Laos’ transportation infrastructure, several challenges remain, particularly the lack of clarity on transportation costs for transferring goods from Thailand to the rail system in Vientiane (Kuştepeli et al., 2012) The absence of a direct rail link between the Thai and Chinese rail networks necessitates reliance on trucking, which raises logistics costs and causes transfer delays Additionally, non-tariff barriers across Thailand, Laos, and China hinder trade efficiency and impede seamless cross-border movement of goods.

To advance Laos' transportation infrastructure, opportunities exist to collaborate with external partners, notably through China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which can provide financial backing and technical expertise for transport projects Engaging with the BRI can boost trade connectivity and spur economic growth by improving regional infrastructure links with neighboring countries A careful assessment of the potential risks and benefits of external infrastructure projects should accompany such collaboration to ensure alignment with Laos' development goals.

Infrastructure development in Laos must prioritize environmental stewardship to protect its rich biodiversity and natural resources Projects should be carried out in a sustainable, environmentally friendly manner and supported by thorough environmental impact assessments, with robust mitigation measures to minimize adverse effects on ecosystems and local communities (Keothephar & Srithilat, 2024).

Transportation infrastructure plays a vital role in promoting economic growth and trade facilitation in Laos Investments in electricity, air transportation, and telecommunications are key drivers of economic development (Keothephar & Srithilat,

2024) The improvement of paved roads, international bridges, and border crossings has enhanced trade connectivity and reduced regional inequality (Celbis et al., 2015)

Laos remains constrained by its landlocked position and geographic limitations, which impede transport connectivity and export potential (Kuştepeli et al., 2012) Engaging with opportunities from the Belt and Road Initiative can upgrade transport networks and expand international trade links, driving regional growth (Hochman et al., 2013) Ongoing investment, strategic planning, and robust environmental safeguards are essential to deliver sustainable and inclusive transportation infrastructure for Laos (Keothephar & Srithilat, 2024).

2.1.2 Literature review on international trade and Laos’ international trade

International trade is a key driver of economic development, and Laos is no exception As a landlocked country in Southeast Asia, Laos faces unique challenges in trade connectivity and international integration due to the lack of direct access to the sea, which affects trade logistics and infrastructure development Nevertheless, Laos is actively working to overcome these obstacles and strengthen its international trade position by joining regional frameworks such as the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Transportation infrastructure is a key driver of Laos’s international trade, with the development of roads, air transport, and telecommunications enhancing trade facilitation and regional connectivity Investments in transport networks have a positive impact on trade volume and efficiency (Vửrửs & Somsack, 2020) For example, upgrading paved roads has improved trade connectivity with neighboring countries and helped reduce regional inequality by expanding market access for rural areas (Magnus et al., 2021) The availability of well-maintained road networks also facilitates the movement of goods, driving increased trade activity (Magnus et al., 2021).

Investments in expanding and modernizing Laos’ airports have strengthened air connectivity, spurring increased tourism and business activity (Nolintha, 2011) Airports act as crucial gateways for international trade, enabling the movement of people and the transport of goods This improved connectivity has not only boosted tourism but also facilitated the import and export of goods, contributing to the growth of Laos’ international trade (Law et al.).

Multimodal transport, incorporating road, rail, and sea, is recognized as a key driver of Laos’s international trade The Laotian garment sector shows how combining multiple transport modes can yield cost savings and improved efficiency By integrating road, rail, and maritime routes, Lao exporters overcome the country’s landlocked status and more effectively reach international markets (Lao, 2014).

The development of international bridges linking Laos to neighboring countries, especially Thailand, has significantly reshaped trade dynamics (Vửrửs & Somsack, 2020) These crossings not only facilitate the movement of goods but also spur a rise in private imports through cross-border shopping Differences in prices and product availability across the border drive heightened trade activity, benefiting Lao consumers through both traditional retail channels and cross-border shopping (Edgardo Gomez Jr et al., 2011).

Despite progress in transportation infrastructure, Laos still faces challenges in expanding international trade A primary obstacle is the lack of clarity around transportation costs, which undermines price transparency and reduces the competitiveness of exporters and investors, as noted by Lertpusit Addressing this ambiguity is essential for improving cross-border logistics, lowering transit times, and fostering greater trade efficiency in Laos.

Research gap from the literature review

Extant research indicates a positive, strong link between international trade and transport infrastructure, with distance often used as a proxy for trade frictions; however, studies have not yet examined moderating factors that could amplify or dampen this relationship in Lao PDR Given Laos's strategic goal of moving from landlocked to land-linked status, transport infrastructure is a crucial lever for trade development, yet there has been no analysis of its impact on international trade within the Lao context This study seeks to fill that gap and makes three contributions: it clarifies how transport infrastructure affects Lao PDR’s international trade; it investigates potential moderating factors that could alter this effect; and it offers policy guidance aligned with Laos’s land-linked development strategy.

A key theoretical research gap in Lao PDR is the limited examination of moderating factors that can amplify or diminish the link between transportation infrastructure and international trade While prior studies acknowledge a positive association between transportation infrastructure and trade in relation to country distance, there is a lack of evidence on the specific factors that may influence this relationship within Laos By not systematically analyzing these moderating factors, existing research in Lao PDR falls short of providing a complete understanding of how transportation infrastructure affects international trade Addressing this gap can offer clearer insights for policymakers and researchers seeking to optimize infrastructure investments to boost Lao PDR's trade performance.

There is a notable research gap in Laos's landlocked-to-land-link strategy, with few studies specifically examining how transportation infrastructure affects international trade within this framework Although Laos aims to be land-linked, the literature offers limited analyses of how transport networks—roads, rail, and logistics—influence trade flows in this context Because the development of international trade is a central objective of the landlocked-to-land-link approach, researchers should investigate how transportation infrastructure can facilitate trade growth and strengthen Laos’s connectivity.

There is a lack of empirical insights from Laos that examine how transportation infrastructure affects the country’s export activities Although studies from other countries and regions demonstrate clear linkages between transport networks and trade performance, Laos-specific empirical analyses are scarce This practical research gap matters for Lao policymakers and industry practitioners, who need context-driven evidence on how roads, ports, rail, and logistics services influence international trade Filling this gap could illuminate the role of transport infrastructure in exporting competitiveness, inform investment decisions, and guide policy design to enhance Lao export performance.

Current literature offers limited, nuanced analysis of how Laos-specific factors influence the relationship between transportation infrastructure and international trade By examining moderating factors such as Laos’s geographical characteristics, policy frameworks, and institutional arrangements, researchers can gain a deeper understanding of the country’s unique context and provide targeted recommendations for policymakers and industry practitioners This approach supports more accurate assessments of transport infrastructure’s impact on trade and helps drive evidence-based decision-making in Laos’s trade and development strategy.

Current literature on the impact of transportation infrastructure on international trade in Lao PDR identifies several gaps that warrant attention Key gaps include a limited focus on moderating factors, insufficient exploration of the Landlocked to Land Link strategy, and a dearth of empirical insights specific to Laos Filling these gaps through focused research would advance theoretical understanding and provide practical guidance for policymakers and industry practitioners, ultimately improving our knowledge of how transportation infrastructure affects Lao PDR’s international trade performance.

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS ON THE IMPACT OF

Conceptualization of transportation infrastructure and international trade

3.1.Conceptualization of transportation infrastructure and international trade in contemporary business administration

International trade, defined as the exchange of goods and services between sovereign nations, enables countries to improve living standards through strategic specialization in areas of comparative advantage A hermeneutic analysis of contemporary business administration highlights three fundamental imperatives driving cross-border commerce: expanded trading opportunities, sovereign-state constraints, and international finance mechanisms Without cross-border exchange, societies would face material and cultural impoverishment, leaving Canadians without wine, Americans without tropical produce, and global regions without cultural exports.

From a business‑administration perspective, international trade is framed as an open‑economy paradigm featuring self‑reinforcing accumulation that drives competitive dynamism across markets Building on Vesna et al (2017), international trade is the cross‑border exchange of capital, goods, and services to satisfy needs and wants for those inputs This dissertation argues that resource asymmetries among nations spark cross‑border commercial interactions, as domestic production often cannot fully meet internal demand, prompting imports while surplus output fuels exports Consequently, international trade is operationalized as the bilateral or multilateral import‑export flows among sovereign trading entities.

Transportation infrastructure is the foundational socio-technical system that enables the deliberate mobilization of people, goods, and services across spatial distances Wang (2018) describes it as a network infrastructure that interconnects nodes and regions to support efficient commercial operations This system divides into two main categories: hard infrastructure, comprising physical assets such as roadways, railways, waterways, airways, intermodal terminals, warehousing facilities, and port installations; and soft infrastructure, consisting of the institutional apparatus—policies, legislative frameworks, regulatory mechanisms, governance structures, and digital technologies—that orchestrate the administration and operation of these physical assets.

Transportation infrastructure, viewed through the lens of functional business administration, is a large-scale public works system with wide-ranging political, economic, societal, technological, environmental, and security implications for national development (OECD, 2013) The environmental impact varies greatly by transport mode, with road transport having the highest environmental footprint and aviation also contributing substantially to carbon dioxide emissions In contrast, non-motorized options such as walking and cycling, along with rail, offer more favorable environmental sustainability profiles (Dostal).

The strategic role of transportation infrastructure in facilitating

Trade and transportation form a dialectical interplay that acts as a central economic catalyst in modern business administration When the agricultural and industrial sectors underpin national economies, transportation infrastructure functions as the circulatory and nervous system that energizes economic activity The study argues that transportation infrastructure more robustly facilitates international trade than domestic commerce, prompting governments to adopt transport development policies as strategic tools to amplify the effectiveness of trade openness and global economic integration.

Transportation infrastructure sits at the center of international business, generating multiplicative effects across economies by boosting domestic production, expanding internal trade, and fueling macroeconomic growth that lifts international trade volumes Governments typically commit substantial fiscal resources to building and upgrading roads, railways, seaports, and airports, using these investments to facilitate trade, reduce transportation costs, and accelerate international commercial expansion.

Empirical evidence supports the view that transportation infrastructure boosts economic performance Han and Li (2022) find that a 10% improvement in transport infrastructure corresponds to a 3.9% increase in real income, with more than 95% of the resulting gains reinvested in infrastructure development Bougheas et al (1999) establish a positive link between infrastructure development levels and inter-country trade volumes Extending this framework, Netirith and Ji (2022) show that higher infrastructure performance and improved connectivity are associated with stronger trade performance metrics and optimized freight flows Their results also indicate that expanded network capacity, enhanced cross-border connections, and better connectivity support GDP growth and a rise in import-export volumes.

Jamilah et al (2012) demonstrate that bilateral trade flows are significantly shaped by physical infrastructure development, with railway expansion showing the strongest link to trade volumes, followed by paved road networks and container port capacity Their findings reveal that a 10% increase in total rail kilometers corresponds to about a 4.37% rise in trade volume The study also emphasizes that infrastructure development across transportation and ICT sectors substantially influences trade flows and yields meaningful benefits for international commerce.

Trade liberalization has substantially reduced tariff rates among nations, prompting member states to recalibrate policies toward trade facilitation measures that cut a broad range of trade costs, from transaction and cross-border fees to freight, time-related, regulatory compliance, information asymmetry, contract enforcement, and customs clearance delays (Jamilah et al., 2012) Anderson and van Wincoop (2004) argue that transportation infrastructure policy interventions exert a greater influence on trade costs than direct policy tools such as tariffs and quotas, while also significantly impacting the time costs of trade Accordingly, this dissertation posits that higher transportation infrastructure quality is positively associated with increased trade volumes.

Geographical constraints further moderate this relationship Limão and Venables

Research from 2001 shows that landlocked countries incur significant international trade barriers because transportation costs are higher, with the median landlocked nation handling roughly 30% of the trade volume seen in coastal peers This pattern underscores the particular trade challenges faced by Lao PDR, whose landlocked position amplifies transport costs and constrains its cross-border commerce.

Theoretical foundations and business administration perspectives on

3.3.1 Classical and neoclassical trade theories and transportation infrastructure

Understanding the transportation infrastructure–international trade relationship rests on classical and neoclassical trade theories, which this work integrates with contemporary business administration paradigms The Ricardian comparative advantage theory provides the core framework for explaining international trade patterns and the drive toward specialization Accordingly, nations specialize in producing and exporting goods and services where they possess comparative advantage and import those where they face comparative disadvantage.

From a business administration perspective, the quality and availability of transportation infrastructure are fundamental determinants of a nation's realized comparative advantage in international trade The dissertation contends that substantial natural or acquired advantages can remain unrealized without robust infrastructure to efficiently move goods to international markets This theoretical proposition is corroborated by Limão (2001), who demonstrates that transportation infrastructure strongly influences how a country's comparative advantage is operationalized and its capacity to integrate into global value chains.

According to the Heckscher-Ohlin framework, countries export goods that are intensive in their abundant factors of production and import goods that rely on scarce inputs When transportation infrastructure is considered, investments in roads, ports, and logistics networks can shift a nation’s effective factor endowments by reducing trade costs and expanding usable infrastructure For landlocked Lao PDR, targeted infrastructure development can mitigate geographic disadvantages, transform its factor abundance profile, and enhance export competitiveness.

Within the neoclassical synthesis, transaction cost economics explains how firms’ boundaries and organizational structures are shaped by transaction costs, a concept developed by Coase (1937) and Williamson (1979) When extended to international trade, transportation infrastructure directly affects these costs, shaping corporate configurations, supply chains, and global trade patterns As transportation networks advance, spatial transaction costs decline, enabling firms to undertake previously prohibitive international commerce and reorganize operations to exploit comparative advantages across borders.

3.3.2 New economic geography and spatial economics perspectives

The New Economic Geography (NEG) paradigm, pioneered by Krugman (1991), offers a robust theoretical framework for understanding how transportation costs and infrastructure quality shape spatial economic activity and international trade patterns This dissertation integrates NEG with core business administration concepts to examine how transportation infrastructure development in Lao PDR could reconfigure the spatial distribution of economic activity and cross-border trade flows, drawing on the insights of Redding and Venables about connectivity, scale economies, and regional integration.

NEG models indicate that economic activity concentrates in regions with superior market access and supplier access, both of which are heavily shaped by transport infrastructure quality Reductions in trade costs achieved through improved transportation infrastructure can trigger non-linear economic responses, potentially producing agglomeration in some areas or dispersion in others In Lao PDR, these dynamics suggest that strategic transport infrastructure investments could steer economic concentration toward border regions with enhanced connectivity to neighboring markets.

From a business administration perspective, NEG theories explain how transportation infrastructure investments influence firm location decisions, market entry strategies, and regional specialization patterns Improvements in transport infrastructure reduce the effective economic distance between locations, potentially transforming peripheral regions into viable business hubs This spatial transformation shapes corporate strategy, supply chain design, and investment prioritization, with particular relevance for developing economies like Lao PDR.

Within the core–periphery framework of New Economic Geography, transport infrastructure quality determines whether a region becomes an economic core or remains peripheral, since superior links attract firms seeking to minimize transportation costs and maximize market access, spawning self-reinforcing agglomeration economies Fujita et al (1999) demonstrate that regions with better transportation networks draw businesses by lowering logistics costs and expanding market reach For landlocked Lao PDR, targeted transport infrastructure development could transform geographic disadvantage into a strategic opportunity by positioning the country as a crossroads between larger neighboring economies.

3.3.3 Business logistics and supply chain management paradigms

Contemporary logistics and supply chain management theories provide essential frameworks for understanding how transportation infrastructure shapes international trade by influencing operational efficiency, inventory management, and distribution networks Chopra and Meindl (2016) argue that transportation infrastructure quality directly affects key business performance metrics, including lead times, reliability, flexibility, and cost structures.

Arvis et al.'s 2018 logistics performance theory asserts that national logistics performance—largely determined by the quality of transportation infrastructure—directly drives trade competitiveness The Logistics Performance Index (LPI) framework identifies infrastructure as one of six core dimensions shaping a country's integration into global supply chains For Lao PDR, this perspective indicates that advances in transportation infrastructure are a critical determinant of logistics performance and, therefore, of the country’s international trade capacity.

Supply chain resilience theory (Christopher & Peck, 2004) explains that transportation infrastructure shapes international trade by influencing supply chain vulnerability and adaptability A robust and redundant transportation network enhances resilience to disruptions, supporting more stable international trade flows This framework is especially relevant for Lao PDR, where limited transport options can create vulnerabilities that constrain the country's trade potential.

Just-in-Time (JIT) and lean logistics rely on a reliable transportation network to minimize inventory and synchronize production schedules These approaches require highly dependable transport to maintain efficient operations and reduce stock levels The study argues that inadequate transportation infrastructure in developing economies can hinder the adoption of JIT and lean practices, thereby limiting international trade competitiveness Strengthening transport infrastructure is essential to unlock supply chain efficiencies and enhance the global competitiveness of emerging markets.

3.3.4 Institutional economic theory and transportation governance

An institutional economic theory provides a complementary analytical framework for understanding how governance, regulation, and the regulatory environment surrounding transportation infrastructure shape international trade outcomes North (1990) argued that institutions—encompassing formal rules and informal norms governing economic interactions—shape transaction costs and overall economic performance When applied to transportation infrastructure, this perspective suggests that the institutional framework governing development, maintenance, and operation of infrastructure critically determines its effectiveness in facilitating international trade.

Williamson’s 1985 transaction cost economics framework shows that governance choices for transportation infrastructure—public provision, public-private partnerships (PPPs), or private development—shape infrastructure quality, efficiency, and trade facilitation capacity For Lao PDR, this approach suggests that optimal governance arrangements may differ by project modality and local context, calling for nuanced policy design that aligns governance structure with cost, risk, and performance outcomes to strengthen mobility and regional trade.

By integrating institutional theory with business administration perspectives, the study analyzes how the quality of transportation-related institutions—customs authorities, regulatory agencies, and border management systems—shapes trade costs and firms’ competitive advantage It shows that transparent and efficient transportation governance reduces cross-border trade frictions, lowers compliance costs, and mitigates uncertainty for traders Citing Acemoglu and Robinson (2012), the work argues that inclusive economic institutions are prerequisites for maximizing the trade benefits of infrastructure investments, with well-governed transport institutions driving stronger economic performance Consequently, infrastructure investments must be paired with reforms that strengthen institutional quality—such as streamlined customs procedures, predictable regulation, and integrated border management—to boost trade efficiency and competitive advantage.

Conceptual research framework: Transportation infrastructure-

Building on the theoretical foundations outlined earlier, this dissertation develops a comprehensive conceptual framework for analyzing the multidimensional relationship between transportation infrastructure and international trade in Lao PDR The framework integrates diverse theoretical perspectives and situates them within Lao PDR’s unique geographic, economic, and institutional context It clarifies how transport networks, logistics performance, and policy regimes shape trade flows, competitiveness, and development outcomes By combining spatial analysis with economic and institutional dimensions, the study offers actionable insights for policymakers and investors seeking to boost Lao PDR's international trade through targeted transport investment and governance reforms This approach lays the groundwork for rigorous empirical testing and contributes to a more nuanced understanding of infrastructure-led trade dynamics in Lao PDR.

Quantitative analysis of transportation infrastructure impacts on international trade must account for the key variables and their interdependencies Grounded in the classical theory of comparative advantage (Ricardo, 2014) and the insights of new economic geography (Krugman, 1991), this framework shows that transport infrastructure significantly reshapes Lao PDR's realized comparative advantage and the spatial distribution of economic activity By integrating transport costs, travel time, reliability, and logistics performance with trade flows, the approach explains how infrastructure quality drives competitiveness and regional development in Laos.

Among quantitative modeling approaches—such as gravity models, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, and spatial econometric models—the gravity model offers optimal analytical utility for examining the impact of transportation infrastructure on Lao PDR's international trade While CGE models provide comprehensive simulations of the entire economy, they require extensive data inputs and complex calibration, which makes them more suitable for economy-wide impact analysis rather than focused examination of trade flows Similarly, spatial econometric models excel at capturing spatial dependencies but may not optimally address the dynamics of bilateral trade flows.

With a solid theoretical grounding in international trade theory, the gravity model draws on established frameworks like Ricardian, Heckscher-Ohlin, and monopolistic competition Empirically, it enjoys extensive validation across diverse countries and time periods, consistently delivering high explanatory power for bilateral trade flows It is relatively simple and highly interpretable, demanding fewer data inputs than more complex alternatives It also offers exceptional flexibility to integrate transportation infrastructure variables, enabling nuanced assessment of their impact on trade.

The conceptual framework incorporates moderating variables that may influence the transportation infrastructure-trade relationship in Lao PDR, including:

- Road infrastructure quality and extent (paved road length, extended road length)

- Railway infrastructure development (railway length)

- Air transport connectivity (number of airlines)

- Inland water transportation capacity (number of inland water ferries, Mekong bridges)

- Freight transportation fleet (number of truck registrations)

- Digital connectivity (broadband internet users)

Rooted in business logistics and supply chain management theory, the framework explains how different transportation modalities influence logistics performance and trade competitiveness It also recognizes that infrastructure elements can have varying impacts on trade flows across commodity types, trade partners, and geographical contexts, signaling that strategies and policy should be tailored to specific sectors and regions to optimize efficiency and competitiveness.

An enhanced conceptual model integrates institutional factors from institutional economics, highlighting that the effectiveness of transportation infrastructure hinges on governance quality, regulatory environments, and border management systems This institutional dimension is especially critical for Lao PDR due to its landlocked status and its reliance on transit arrangements with neighboring countries.

Finally, the framework incorporates regional integration perspectives, placing Lao PDR's transportation infrastructure development within the broader ASEAN economic integration and regional connectivity agenda This regional dimension suggests that transport investments can deliver magnified benefits through network effects and deeper participation in regional value chains across ASEAN.

Regional cooperation mechanisms and cross-border transportation

This dissertation analyzes the institutional architecture and strategic initiatives shaping ASEAN regional transportation infrastructure, with particular emphasis on implications for Lao PDR’s international trade capacity By situating Lao PDR’s transport development within broader regional cooperation frameworks, the study highlights how ASEAN policy, cross-border connectivity, and investment initiatives can enhance Lao PDR’s trade competitiveness and integration into global supply chains.

Since Lao PDR joined ASEAN in 1997, its transportation infrastructure development has increasingly aligned with the ASEAN strategic master plan, which defines priority cooperation domains and establishes coordination and implementation mechanisms (ASEAN, 2017) The ASEAN Strategic Transport Action Plan 2016–2025 now serves as the policy framework guiding regional transport development, with primary objectives centered on creating an ASEAN Single Market by strengthening the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM), integrating regional land transport networks, enhancing maritime safety and security along economic corridors, and developing integrated, efficient, globally competitive logistics and multimodal transportation systems that enable seamless movement of people and goods within and beyond ASEAN.

ASEAN's road network is a foundational element of regional trade infrastructure, with paved road coverage rising sharply from 778,921 km in 2009 to 1,506,169 km in 2019 Vietnam and Thailand contributed significantly to this expansion, each adding more than 250,000 km of paved roads during the period Cambodia achieved remarkable progress despite starting from a low base, quadrupling its paved network from 2,661 km in 2009 to 12,009 km in 2019 Lao PDR also doubled its paved road infrastructure, reaching 12,617 km by 2019 Meanwhile, Singapore has maintained comprehensive, high-quality paved road coverage across its urban territory.

ASEAN's regional trade potential has been strengthened by extensive expressway construction across member states, with expressway networks growing 53% from 2010 to 2020 and reaching 5,815 kilometers by 2020 Inter-member connectivity has also advanced through designated national highway routes within the ASEAN Highway Network (AHN) Project The ASEAN strategic plan targets upgrading Transit Transport Routes (TTRs) and ASEAN Highway (AH) segments that are below standard class III, as well as high-traffic AH class II or III segments Notable projects include the Dawei–Kanchanaburi highway connecting Myanmar and Thailand These developments are complemented by Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) implementation and the establishment of dry ports connected to the ASEAN highway network and the Singapore-Kunming Rail Link (SKRL).

ASEAN prioritizes the integration of land and maritime transport modalities, a move driven by its blend of mainland and archipelagic states This strategy has accelerated regional multimodal transport development, exemplified by Roll-on-Roll-off (RORO) corridors linking Muara in Brunei Darussalam to Labuan in Malaysia and connecting Davao–General Santos in the Philippines with Bitung in Indonesia (ASEAN, 2019).

Rail transportation infrastructure stands as a key pillar of regional connectivity, with the SKRL project aiming to link major cities across seven ASEAN Member States—Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Lao PDR, and Myanmar Malaysia and Thailand have upgraded their single-track railways to double-track systems, facilitating regional freight transport and stimulating regional trade Ongoing initiatives include completing the missing SKRL link between Phnom Penh and Ho Chi Minh City, alongside existing railway upgrades Strategic integration of the AHN road network with the SKRL railway network is prioritized to boost inter-modal connectivity with major airports, ports, inland waterways, and ferry systems.

Air transportation is a vital pillar of regional connectivity, primarily serving passenger mobility while complementing other transport modalities to boost ASEAN trade, and the sector has experienced exponential growth recognized as a key driver of regional economic development In 2015, the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM) was prioritized as a central pillar supporting the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), enabling free, efficient, safe, and secure movement of people and goods within ASEAN and beyond A major milestone was achieved in 2016 through open sky agreements, including multilateral frameworks.

Key instruments include the Agreement on Air Services (MAAS) and its multilateral counterparts—the Multilateral Agreement on the Full Liberalization of Passenger Air Services (MAFLPAS) and the Multilateral Agreement on the Full Liberalization of Air Freight Services (MAFLAFS) Future initiatives target strengthening air traffic management, aviation safety, and security cooperation to foster a more efficient and competitive air transport market, while maintaining active dialogue with partners such as the European Union, India, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, in line with ASEAN (2019).

Maritime transportation is a cornerstone of regional freight movement, and ASEAN member states are strengthening maritime connectivity through the development of the ASEAN Single Shipping Market (ASSM), enhanced regional cooperation in maritime transport, and the effective implementation of International Maritime Organization (IMO) conventions to create a more integrated, efficient, and competitive maritime transport system At the same time, ASEAN plans to establish an efficient, integrated Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) network in Thailand and the CLMV countries, advancing inland shipping and regional logistics (ASEAN, 2019).

Since 2010, Chinese infrastructure investments in Lao PDR have surged, with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) playing a central role in connecting domestic and international trade The BRI’s strategic framework emphasizes policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, freer trade, financial integration, and strengthened people-to-people ties By 2019, China had ratified 173 cooperation agreements with 125 countries and 29 international organizations across Asia, Europe, Africa, Latin America, and the South Pacific to facilitate trade expansion.

Infrastructure connectivity is a central priority of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), realized through six major corridors: the New Eurasian Land Bridge; the China-Mongolia-Russia corridor; the China-Central Asia-West Asia corridor; the China-Indochina Peninsula corridor; the China-Pakistan corridor; and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor These corridors are designed to link Asian and European economic spheres and drive regional integration Significant progress has been made in building inter-regional and intercontinental railway networks, including the China-Laos Railway, the China-Thailand Railway, the Hungary-Serbia Railway, and the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway Preliminary research has progressed on the eastern route of the Pan-Asia Railway Network, the upgrade of Pakistan's Karachi-Peshawar Railway Line, and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, with the feasibility study for a China-Nepal cross-border railway now completed.

Railway companies from China, Belarus, Germany, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Poland, and Russia have deepened cooperation for China–Europe rail services, expanding cross-border connectivity across Asia and Europe By 2018 these services connected 108 cities in 16 countries and handled over 1.1 million TEUs, with inspection rates and customs clearance times cut by about 50% by 2019 In addition, nonstop transport operations have been tested on road sections linking China–Mongolia–Russia, China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan, China–Russia (Dalian–Novosibirsk), and China–Vietnam Concurrently, China has negotiated expanded air traffic rights with numerous countries including Luxembourg, Russia, Armenia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Israel, Mongolia, Malaysia, and Egypt, resulting in 1,239 new international routes over five years (Chinese government, 2019).

Lao PDR stands to gain from regional cooperation mechanisms and cross-border infrastructure initiatives by overcoming its landlocked status through strategic integration with regional transport networks The China-Laos Railway is a transformative project that could reposition Lao PDR from landlocked to land-linked within regional value chains To fully realize these benefits, domestic infrastructure must be upgraded to connect internal production centers with new international gateways, and institutional reforms are needed to streamline cross-border procedures and maximize the trade facilitation impact of physical infrastructure investments.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORTATION

DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATION OF ENHANCING

Ngày đăng: 10/10/2025, 14:16

TÀI LIỆU CÙNG NGƯỜI DÙNG

TÀI LIỆU LIÊN QUAN

🧩 Sản phẩm bạn có thể quan tâm

w