Topic market research on m&a activities in the information technology sector in vietnam during the period 2020–2024 and future prospects

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY, FACULTYOF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS *** ESSAY ON DATA ANALYTICS IN BUSINESS TOPIC: MARKET RESEARCH ON M&A ACTIVITIES IN THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR IN VIE

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY, FACULTY

OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

***

ESSAY ON DATA ANALYTICS IN BUSINESS

TOPIC: MARKET RESEARCH ON M&A

ACTIVITIES IN THE INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY SECTOR IN VIETNAM DURING

THE PERIOD 2020–2024 AND FUTURE

PROSPECTS

Hanoi, September 2025

LIST OF TEAM MEMBERS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART 1 INTRODUCE

1 Reasons for Choosing the Topic

In recent years, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become one of the fastest-growing and most dynamic sectors in the global economy The rapid adoption of digital transformation, cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and the Internet of Things (IoT) has not only changed the way businesses operate but also created new opportunities for investment and strategic cooperation.

In Vietnam, the Information Technology (IT) sector has received strong support from the government through policies such as Resolution 49/CP (1993) and Directive No 58-CT/TW (2000), emphasizing the crucial role of IT in national socio-economic development Along with this development, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activities in the IT sector have become increasingly active, reflecting both domestic enterprises’ needs for capital, technology, and market expansion, and foreign investors’ interest in Vietnam’s emerging digital economy However, studies focusing specifically on M&A in the IT sector in Vietnam remain limited Most research only addresses general ICT development or foreign investment in technology Therefore, conducting a market research on M&A activities in Vietnam’s IT sector from 2020 to 2024 is both timely and necessary This research not only contributes to understanding the trends and characteristics of M&A transactions but also provides insights into opportunities and challenges for Vietnam’s IT industry in the coming years.

For these reasons, our team decided to carry out the project: “MARKET RESEARCH ON M&A ACTIVITIES IN THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR IN VIETNAM DURING THE PERIOD 2020–2024 AND FUTURE PROSPECTS.” The study, on the one hand, helps provide an overall view of how M&A influences the development of Vietnam’s IT industry, and on the other hand, proposes practical solutions and development directions to enhance

competitiveness and promote sustainable growth in the digital era.

2 Research Objectives

The overall objective of this research is to analyze M&A activities in Vietnam’s IT sector during the period 2020–2024 and to evaluate their future prospects From this general objective, the study aims to achieve the following specific goals:

- Assess the scale, structure, and trends of M&A activities in the Vietnamese IT industry between 2020 and 2024.

- Analyze the key drivers behind M&A transactions, including policy support, capital demand, technology transfer, and market expansion.

- Identify challenges and risks in M&A activities, such as valuation difficulties, legal barriers, and post-merger integration issues.

- Compare Vietnam’s IT M&A market with regional and global M&A trends to highlight its position and potential.

- Propose strategic recommendations to improve the efficiency of M&A transactions and foster sustainable growth in Vietnam’s IT industry.

3 Object and Scope of the Study

Object of Study: M&A activities in the Information Technology sector, including motivations, trends, impacts, and outcomes.

Scope of Research:

- Time Scope: 2020–2024, with projections for the coming years.

- Spatial Scope: Focus on Vietnam’s IT industry, with regional and global comparisons where relevant.

- Content Scope: Market analysis of M&A transactions, including the participation of both domestic enterprises and foreign investors, and their implications for the Vietnamese IT sector.

PART 2: METHODOLOGY

I Data Range

The dataset used in this study is designed to capture a comprehensive picture of M&Aactivities in the Information Technology (IT) sector in Vietnam over the period fromJanuary 2020 to December 2024 The research collects transaction data from officialreports published by the Ministry of Information and Communications, the StateSecurities Commission, and the General Statistics Office, ensuring consistency andreliability To enrich the scope of analysis, secondary data are also drawn frominternational audit firms such as PwC, KPMG, Deloitte, and EY, which regularlypublish M&A insights and industry outlooks In addition, financial statements andannual reports of leading IT enterprises involved in mergers, acquisitions, or strategicpartnerships are examined to provide deal-specific details such as transaction values,equity structures, and integration outcomes To ensure international comparability, allmonetary figures are standardized in USD This dataset does not only reflect the scaleand structure of M&A deals but also enables an assessment of their broader economicand technological impact on Vietnam’s IT sector and digital economy

II Modeling Method

The research applies a mixed-method approach that combines both quantitative andqualitative analysis to generate a comprehensive understanding of M&A trends On thequantitative side, descriptive statistics are used to summarize the number of transactions,their value, and the deal types observed in the market Correlation analysis is then applied

to identify relationships between M&A activities and macroeconomic as well as specific variables such as GDP growth, foreign direct investment inflows, capital demandfrom IT enterprises, the level of Internet penetration, and investment in digitalinfrastructure Furthermore, trend analysis is conducted to track the evolution of dealstructures, distinguishing between horizontal, vertical, and cross-border mergers andacquisitions On the qualitative side, the study employs case study analysis of representativeM&A deals that have taken place in Vietnam’s IT sector during the period, focusing on the

industry-7

motivations behind these transactions, the challenges encountered during negotiation andintegration, and the strategic benefits obtained by the participating companies Bycombining top-down macroeconomic perspectives with bottom-up deal-level evidence, themethodology ensures that findings are not only data-driven but also contextually grounded.

III.Forecast

For forecasting, the study employs a multi-model evaluation framework to predict thefuture trajectory of M&A activities in Vietnam’s IT sector The dataset is divided intotraining and validation groups to test the robustness of different predictive techniques,ensuring the reliability of the chosen model Both statistical forecasting methods andscenario-based projections are applied to capture a range of possible outcomes for theindustry Particular attention is paid to the period 2020–2022, during which the COVID-19pandemic accelerated the demand for IT services and drove a surge in digital transformationprojects, thereby acting as a catalyst for M&A activities This factor is treated as a structuraldriver in the forecasting model, as it significantly altered the trajectory of IT investment inVietnam At the same time, the research deliberately limits the influence of externalgeopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia–Ukraine war, and instead concentrates ondomestic socio-economic conditions, policy developments, and business drivers thatdirectly affect Vietnam’s IT industry Through this forecasting process, the study aims tohighlight potential opportunities, risks, and development paths for M&A in the IT sector,thereby providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and enterprises preparingfor the next phase of digital economy growth

8

PART 3 DATA ANALYSIS

2.1 Data Sorting

2.1.1 Data collection process:

In this study, the authors selected two main criteria when determining the research variable: (i) the variable must have a direct or indirect relationship with the development of the information technology industry

in Vietnam; (ii) the data must be sourced from trusted organizations.

Therefore, the variables focused on analysis include: GDP growth rate, Internet penetration rate, level of investment in information technology infrastructure, number of enterprises operating in the IT sector, export value of IT services, and national digital transformation index (DXI).

The main data sources are collected from the General Statistics Office (GSO), the Ministry of Information and Communications, the World Bank (World Bank), the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), and the annual reports of large technology enterprises in Vietnam Once collected, the data is integrated into a common database with the

"Year" variable (2020–2024) used as the primary key to join the tables and reconcile the information.

2.1.2 Data sorting process:

During the data processing, the team noticed the appearance of missing or inconsistent data To solve this problem, three main methods have been applied:

- Consistent data: For indicators that are less volatile in the short term, such as public investment in IT infrastructure, the annual average is applied to all smaller timelines (quarterly or monthly), assuming minimal volatility in the observed range.

- Mixed data: For aggregated data sets by category (e.g., IT industry revenue divided by software, hardware, services), when there is a missing value of a category, the assumption is applied that the distribution rate is similar to other categories in the same group, from which the missing value is deduced.

- Fluctuating data: For variables with cyclical fluctuations, such as the number of Internet subscribers or the percentage of digital service users,

we assume that the rate of change is regular between measurement milestones The rate of increase/decrease is estimated so that the value at the end of the year matches the value at the beginning of the next year, thereby building a continuous and reasonable time series.

2.2 The impact of information and communication technology on economic

Economic growth using a multivariate regression model for table data of 24 countries

during 2020-2024:

grGDPit = β0 + β1grPOP it + β2inflit + β3ictex it + β4ictimit + β5lnMCS it + β6grtechit +

β7users it + β8unemit + β9fdiit + β10typewater it + ai + u it

In which: β0: blocking factor

βJ: angle factor (J= 1-8)

grGDP: economic growth rategrPOP: infl population growthrate: inflation rate

itcex: ICT commodity export rate itcim:

ICT commodity import rate MCS:

registered mobile phone numbergrtech: the export rate of high-tech ICT goodsUsers: the percentage of the population using theInternet

unemployment rate:

Foreign investment type:

Qualitative variableWho is the variable that does notobserve UIT is a residual

2.2.1.2 Research Hypothesis:

Hypothesis 1 Population growth affects economic growth

A country with a large population will have abundant labor resources, attract foreigninvestment and create a large consumption market that will help promote moreproduction and development, thereby driving economic growth However, if a countryhas a population growth rate that is too high/low, the old/young population will alsocause disadvantageous difficulties in economic development Therefore, the groupexpects population growth to have an impact on economic growth

Hypothesis 2 Inflation rate affects economic growth

Inflation and economic growth are two problems that always exist side by side Anycountry, no matter how developed, is inevitable from inflation However, inflation

development is a double-edged sword for economic growth If inflation is kept at areasonable moderate level, it will help promote production, encourage imports andexports, and develop the economy On the contrary, if inflation is too high, it will cause

an economic recession and exacerbate the national debt situation Therefore, the groupexpects the inflation rate to have an impact on economic growth

Hypothesis 3 The proportion of import and export of ICT goods has a

positive impact on economic growth

The information and communication technology (ICT) product market is currentlythriving with a fairly high growth rate and brings an abundant source of income tocountries producing this industry ICT is a term that combines information technologyand communication technology, which is general for all types of technologies that allowusers to create, access, and manipulate information ICT includes all technical meansused to process information and support communications such as telephones, computernetworks, telecommunications (telephone lines and wireless signals), audio and videoprocessing equipment and other media The development of ICT has maximized thefunction of useful means such as mobile phones, computers, emails, internet, chat rooms,and social networks It can be said that ICT has changed our society, makingcommunication and interaction between people easier and faster than ever Therefore, thegroup expects the proportion of ICT imports and exports to have a positive impact oneconomic growth

Hypothesis 4 The number of registered mobile subscribers has a positive impact on economic growth

Mobile phones have become one of the indispensable essential items in people's lives.Thanks to mobile phones, people can receive and transmit information better regardless

of time or location In addition, mobile phones create conditions for users to use mobilefinancial service activities, encourage shopping on e-commerce platforms and increase

the number of transactions of bank accounts Thereby, the group expects the total number

of registered mobile subscribers to have a positive impact on economic growth

Hypothesis 5 The growth of high-tech exports has a positive effect on

economic growth

According to the Law of the National Assembly 21/2008/QH12, high technology is atechnology with a high content of scientific research and technological development,integrated from scientific achievements and technological development, in order to createproducts with high quality, outstanding features, high added value and environmentalfriendliness; play a very important role in the formation of new production and serviceindustries or the modernization and industrialization of existing production and serviceindustries Examples of high-tech products, such as: biotechnology, aircraft, spacecraft,medical devices, biological devices, are all products that attract highly qualified peopleand have a strong impact on the level of investment and development of the country.Therefore, the group expects the growth of high-tech exports to have a positive effect oneconomic growth

Hypothesis 6 The number of Internet users has a positive effect on economic growth

The Internet is something that has been associated with people's daily lives in recentyears and is an important variable in the development of information technology TheInternet is like an encyclopedia that helps users access a huge source of information andknowledge Besides, in the context of the Covid 19 pandemic, when people need to limitgoing out, the Internet has changed people's habits and behaviors from in-personactivities to online shopping, online learning and working online Therefore, the groupexpects the number of Internet users to have a positive effect on economic growth

Hypothesis 7 The unemployment rate has a negative impact on economic growth worship

Rising unemployment means that the social workforce is not mobilized into the

production and business activities have increased, which is a waste of social labor - a

fundamental factor for socio-economic development In addition, rising unemploymentalso means that the economy is in recession because the real gross national income islower than potential; recession due to lack of investment capital because of having tosupport people who lose their jobs and a shrinking budget due to loss of tax revenue.Therefore, the group expects that the unemployment rate has a negative effect oneconomic growth.

Hypothesis 8 Net foreign investment inflows into the country have a positive effect on economic growth

FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is a form of investment carried out in order toachieve long-term benefits in an enterprise operating on the territory of an economydifferent from the economy of the host country, the purpose of which is to gain the right

to actually manage the enterprise FDI plays a role in the economy, helping to supplement

an important source of capital for development investment, contributing to increasingeconomic output, which means that the demand for labor will increase andunemployment will be reduced In addition, FDI also contributes to GDP growth andstate budget revenue Therefore, the group expects net foreign investment inflows into thecountry to have a positive impact on economic growth

2.2.2 Descriptive Analysis

2.2.2.1. Variables and metrics

Table 2.1 Aggregate variables and metrics

Sourcedata

FDI Net capital inflows into

the country's economyfrom foreign investors(divided by GDP)

2.2.2.2 Database

The paper uses table data and data collected from the World Bank's data sources inthe period from 2020 to 2024 of 23 countries including Vietnam: Australia, Belgium,Brazil, Cambodia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, SouthKorea, Malaysia, Mexico, Thailand, etc Russia, Switzerland, UK, USA, Vietnam, Spain,Brunei

2.2.2.3 Metric description

Description of quantitative variables: After processing the data on Microsoft Excel

software to get the most overview of the data of the variables used in the model, the team

came up with a statistical description of the variables in the model as follows:

Table 2.2 Statistical description

Vari

able

NumberofObservations

AverageValue

StandardDeviation

Minimumvalue

GreatestValue

able

NumberofObservations

AverageValue

StandardDeviation

Minimumvalue

GreatestValue

users

64.96

According to the data, it can be seen that the country with the highest growth rate in thestudy scope is China with 10.63587% in 2010, along with which the country has the

highest growth rate

the lowest growth was Spain in 2020 at -10.82289%

Vietnam is the country with the highest import and export rate of IT goods with34.69686% in 2020 Meanwhile, Cambodia had the lowest import and export rate with0.9350913% in 2021

Cambodia is also the country with the lowest percentage of the population using theInternet at 0.53% in 2023 The country with the highest percentage of the populationusing the Internet was South Korea in 2020 with 96.50506%

In 2020, Brunei recorded the lowest export growth rate of high-tech exports amongthe study countries at -0.9985785%, however, 1 year later, Brunei was the country withthe highest growth rate, at 189.7513%

Finally, -34.20896% is the figure that shows that the percentage of net inflows fromforeign investors to Sweden in 2020 was the lowest, and the percentage of net inflowsfrom foreign investors to Belgium was the highest in 2024 with 31.30685%

Description of Qualitative Variables:

If it is a developed country, give a value = 1

If it is a developing country, give a value = 0

The authors also looked at the correlation coefficient matrix table:

Table 2.3 Correlation matrix between variables

Source: The authors compiled by themselves using EXCEL software

From the correlation matrix in the table above, we have a comment:

Correlation coefficient between grGDP and gr

ariabl

e

grgdp

grpop

infl

ICTtrade

ln_mcs

grtech

ln_users

unem

FDI

gr

gdp

1.000

0

gr

pop

0.292

2

1.0000

in

fl

0.271

7

0.1268

1.0000

IC

Ttrad

e

0.332

7

0.0996

0.0101

8

0.2718

-0.2808

0

3302

1.0000

gr

tech

0.032

1

0.0359

0.1183

0.0713

0.2428

-1.0000

ln

_user

0.33

0.33

0.27

-0.10

0.037

1

ariabl

e

grgdp

grpop

infl

ICTtrade

ln_mcs

grtech

ln_users

unem

FDI

un

em

0.43

-06

0.3076

0.1598

0.4057

0.0894

-0.0119

0

2965

1.0000

F

DI

0.187

8

0.3355

0.0498

0.0733

0.2152

Source: The authors compiled by themselves using EXCEL software