Giap report th group's international market analysis for th true milk in russia

These factors suggest that Russia could be a promising market for international business ventures, including the dairy industry.. Key Industries 3% Potential to Export Political | Politi

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY

BUSINESS ENGLISH FACULTY

GOING INTERNATIONAL ANALYSIS PROJECT

Target market: Russia

Company name: TH Group

Product: TH true MILK Pasteurized Milk

Instructor: MSc Dung Vu

Group members

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bh) Intellectual property violations and national enforcement of property rights

¢) Presence of product safety and liability laws

d) Level and focus of taxation

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3 CONCIUSION 17

J/ TH true MILK Overview

Vietnam is increasingly recognized for its high-tech, clean agricultural practices, particularly

in the dairy sector Domestic producers are now delivering fresh milk and plant-based beverages that meet global standards for quality and safety As global demand continues to shift toward healthy, organic, and naturally sourced products, Vietnamese dairy—tled by innovative brands like TH true MILK—holds strong potential in international markets

Founded in 2009 by Madam Thai Huong, TH true MILK 1s a pioneer in Vietnam’s fresh milk industry The company operates one of Southeast Asia’s largest and most advanced dairy farms with multiple premium products such as TH true NUT (premium nut milk), TH true HERBAL (herbal beverages), TH true MALT (fermented malt beverages), applying a closed-loop, high-tech model that ensures purity, nutrition, and sustainability The TH brand is now legally protected in hundreds of countries, including Japan, the U.S., and EU member states, and is highly regarded for its natural, eco-friendly product philosophy

With operations in Russia since 2016 and the inauguration of a large-scale fresh milk plant in

2025, TH true MILK views the country as a strategic market—where Vietnamese innovation can effectively meet real consumer needs and contribute to long-term sustainable food development Il/ Target Country Overview

Russia, the world’s largest country by land area, holds a significant position in global affairs due to its vast natural resources and strategic location across Europe and Asia It possesses the world’s largest natural gas reserves and is among the top producers of oil and coal, making it a key energy supplier globally In 2024, Russia's economy grew by 4.3%, driven by strong domestic consumption and government spending (Korsunskaya & Bryanski, 2025) Despite facing challenges like international sanctions and high inflation, Russia maintains its influence through its resource wealth and large consumer market These factors suggest that Russia could be a promising market for international business ventures, including the dairy industry

IIl/ Weighted Scaling of Factors Analysis

Factors Weight Analysis and Recommendation

Geographic Location 5% Russia’s expertise in the energy industry Country | and Natural Resources allows other sections, such as agriculture, to Overview ; be open for international trade

Key Industries 3% Potential to Export

Political | Political Ideology 5% Russia’s totalitarian system and low and Legal — " political stability may pose a challenging

Analysis Political Risk 3% environment, limit market entry, and

Economic System 10% Russia’s mixed economy and tight control

- - over key industries such as the financial Economic Transition 10% section may limit the freedom and operation and Development

Infrastructural Forces 10% Potential to Export

Market Potential 10% TH true MILK exportation to Russia has

considerable beneficial prospects due to

Market | Competitors 10% high demand of premium milk and existing

Potential facilities However, TH true MILK has to

compete with established domestic brands Potential to Export

IV/ Exporting decision

As a top player of the dairy industry in Vietnam, TH Group has been expanding its market to foreign territory From 2019, the company launched the second high-tech dairy farming and milk processing in Volokolamsk, Russia and the product chain officially commenced on May 11th, 2025 (Tam Anh, 2025), further demonstrating that exporting milk to Russia is a plausible feat Therefore, it

is decided that the best choice for TH True MILK 1s to go international, that is to export now to Russia after careful consideration of all aspects

I/ Country Overview

1 Factual data

Russia is the largest country in the world, spanning both Europe and Asia Its vast territory includes diverse climates and terrains, with fertile agricultural regions in the European part of the country, particularly in the Central Black Earth region and the Volga area These regions are well-suited for dairy farming and feed crop cultivation, providing a strong foundation for local milk production Additionally, Russia shares land borders with 14 countries, offering potential access to neighboring markets for future expansion (CIA, 2025)

As of January 2025, Russia's population is approximately 146 million people, with a significant concentration in urban centers like Moscow and Saint Petersburg (Federal State Statistics Service, 2025) Urbanization trends and a growing middle class have led to increased demand for high-quality, locally produced dairy products Russia's abundant natural resources, including vast arable land and water supplies, support agricultural activities The country’s main industries encompass energy, manufacturing, and agriculture, with key industrial regions located in the Volga, Ural, and Central areas (Britannica, 2025) These factors create a favorable environment for establishing a milk production facility to meet domestic demand and potentially serve neighboring markets

2 Background

Russia’s historical development has shaped its current economic structure and opportunities for industrial investment During the Soviet period, agriculture was heavily collectivized, which caused inefficiencies and low productivity After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the country shifted toward a market economy, which led to significant disruptions in agricultural output due to the sudden removal of subsidies and unclear property rights (Khitakhunov, 2020) In recent years, however, the government has actively supported the sector to ensure food self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on imports The dairy industry in particular has received attention, with production reaching approximately 34 million tonnes of raw milk in 2024, marking a 0.8% increase from the previous year (DairyNews.today, 2025) Russia’s recovery and modernization of agriculture—especially in fertile regions like the Central and Volga areas—create favorable conditions for establishing a local milk production facility (Serova & Karlova, 2010) These developments offer long-term potential and stability for international investors in the dairy sector

While Russia's political and legal systems exhibit authoritarian tendencies, low transparency, and challenges in intellectual property enforcement, Vietnam's strategic partnership with Russia and TH true MILK’s proactive legal compliance and local engagement can help mitigate risks

1 Political ideology

Russia’s political participation can be characterized as leaning more towards narrow participation The state promotes unity and traditional values while silencing opposing views (Chebankova, 2020) It also controls social and health issues, limiting personal initiative and civic involvement (Cockerham et al., 2006)

Russia’s contemporary political ideology increasingly aligns with authoritarian and even totalitarian tendencies Russia shows some democratic elements by holding regular elections at all levels (Michael Runey, 2024) However, power is heavily concentrated in the hands of Vladimir Putin and his close allies (Holly Ellyatt, 2023), which allows the government to directly control activities like imports

In Russia, political change is seen as “sovereign modernization,” meaning slow, state-controlled progress without outside influence (Chebankova, 2020; Melville, 2018) This approach values stability and tradition over reform Soviet-era ideas still shape public attitudes, making it harder to adopt liberal changes (Cockerham et al., 2006) As a result, Russia’s transition remains gradual and separate from Western models

2 Political risk

As reported by the political risk index by country 2025, from the data in 2020, Russia received a Political Risk Index (PRI) score of 56 from the PRS Group, which indicates a relatively high level of political risk This score points to persistent concerns about the country’s political stability, governance practices, and economic conditions (World Population Review, 2024; PRS Group, 2020) Despite ongoing global events and internal challenges, Russia’s PRI remained stable at

56 throughout the entire year This consistency suggests that the underlying factors contributing to the country’s high-risk status—such as centralized political control, international sanctions, and limited institutional transparency—did not significantly improve or worsen during that period

Due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions with Ukraine, Russia faces serious political risks, which make this country receive substantial international sanctions from Western countries in many sectors such as finance, economy, and technology Moreover, another issue is corruption, which is widespread in both government and business, reducing trust and making the market unpredictable According to Transparency International, Russia ranks poorly in corruption perceptions, highlighting

autonomy, leading to occasional violence and instability, particularly in areas like the North Caucasus Russia presents various political risks for foreign businesses, including corruption, sanctions, legal uncertainty, and rising economic nationalism To succeed in this environment, TH True Milk must adopt strategic measures to protect their operations in Russia

One key strategy is forming local partnerships or joint ventures By collaborating with Russian companies, TH True Milk can better navigate regulatory challenges and share risks with experienced local partners This also helps comply with Russia’s foreign ownership restrictions in certain sectors

Engaging with government bodies and diplomatic channels is also vital Strong relationships with Russian authorities and Vietnamese embassies can help the company stay informed, handle regulatory changes, and address disputes more effectively

In addition, TH True Milk can purchase political risk insurance to protect its assets from events like expropriation or political violence This provides financial security in a volatile environment

Lastly, adapting the company’s branding and messaging to align with national values can build trust Emphasizing local job creation and contributions to food security helps TH True Milk gain acceptance among consumers and policymakers

3 Legal system

a) Russia’s legal system

The Russian Federation operates under a civil law system, rooted in Roman-Germanic legal traditions (ICJ, 2014) The system is based primarily on comprehensive legal codes rather than case law, with judicial decisions playing a supplementary role (Thomson Reuters, 2022) Although the Russian Constitution guarantees judicial independence, the courts often function under the influence

of political authorities, particularly in cases involving foreign firms or politically sensitive matters (OECD, 2020) This centralized legal structure requires foreign investors, including TH true MILK, to exercise caution and seek local legal guidance when operating in the Russian market

Vietnam and Russia both adopt civil law traditions, which provides a level of familiarity in legal concepts and statutory organization However, the practical application and enforcement of the law in Russia differ considerably Russia’s legal environment is marked by procedural complexity, low transparency, and a strong executive influence over the judiciary (OECD, 2020) These factors contribute to a more challenging regulatory environment compared to Vietnam, where legal reforms have increasingly aligned the system with international trade norms (U.S Department of Commerce, 2023) Consequently, despite superficial similarities, TH true MILK must be prepared to navigate a

Despite its participation in international treaties such as the TRIPS Agreement and the Paris Convention (WTO, n.d.; WIPO, 1967), Russia continues to face challenges in the enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR) Counterfeiting remains prevalent, particularly in the food and beverage sector According to industry reports, approximately 14.37% of dairy products on the Russian market have been identified as counterfeit or substandard (Dairy Global, 2023) This presents

a significant risk to TH true MILK, whose brand image is closely tied to product purity and authenticity To mitigate this threat, the company must implement continuous market monitoring and pursue timely legal action against infringing parties

Russia possesses a formal legal framework for the protection of patents, trademarks, and copyrights, administered by the Federal Service for Intellectual Property (Rospatent, n.d.) TH true MILK has proactively secured trademark registration in the Russian market, which serves as a critical legal safeguard against brand misuse However, in practice, enforcement mechanisms remain inconsistent, particularly in regional jurisdictions (U.S Department of Commerce, 2023) Legal procedures can be protracted and costly Therefore, TH true MILK should consider retaining specialized local legal counsel to monitor potential violations and strengthen its capacity for prompt legal recourse when necessary

¢) Presence of product safety and liability laws

Russia enforces strict regulations regarding product safety and consumer protection, particularly within the food and beverage industry Oversight is carried out by the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor, n.d.) Dairy products must comply with standards issued by the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), including requirements related to hygiene, nutritional labeling, shelf life, and traceability (Eurasian Economic Commission, n.d.) Non-compliance may result in administrative penalties, product recalls, or market access restrictions For TH true MILK, full regulatory compliance is essential and should be supported

by certified quality management systems and third-party inspections

ad) Level and focus of taxation

The Russian tax system applies a corporate income tax rate of 20%, comprising a 3% federal component and a 17% regional component (OECD, 2020) Certain sectors, including agriculture and food processing, may benefit from tax incentives or reduced rates, particularly when operating in Special Economic Zones (SEZs) Nonetheless, the tax environment in Russia is often characterized by administrative complexity and the potential for arbitrary audits (U.S Department of Commerce, 2023) To manage these risks, TH true MILK should engage qualified local tax advisors and maintain comprehensive financial records to ensure compliance and to maximize eligibility for available fiscal

a) Russia’s adversaries

Russia's foreign relations are characterized by pragmatic partnerships and _ strategic competitions, with the US being its main adversary The war in Ukraine, cyber conflict, Arctic military expansion, and sanctions resilience have led to the US declaring Russia a "resilient adversary" in 2025 Although Russia is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), it faces numerous trade-related sanctions due to the war in Ukraine NATO/EU relations are also tense, with Russia viewing NATO expansion as an existential threat

b) Allies and mutitilateral agreements

Russia has allied with other Eurasia Economic Union (EAEUV) and Asian countries, creating a Free Trade Zone (Russia's Pivot to Asia, 2025), especially a "no-limit partnership" with China This partnership has significantly boosted Russia's economic international relations and created a vital alternative market and financial partner amid Western sanctions Russia has also entered a mutual defense treaty in 2024 providing for artillery or missile transfers to North Korea for use in Ukraine Russia maintains robust ties with countries in its immediate neighborhood, including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Iran These relationships are reinforced through bilateral security agreements, economic integration initiatives, and leadership within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (Free Trade Agreements with CIS Countries, n.d.) Russia has played a leading role in expanding and strengthening the BRICS, which now includes the original BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and new members Iran, UAE, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia (Russia’s Pivot to ASIA, 2025)

Russia has actively cultivated ties with African and Middle Eastern nations, opening new markets and diversified Russia's economic partners The use of alternative financial systems and logistics channels reduces the impact of Western sanctions and enhances Russia's economic resilience IIl/ Economic Analysis

1 Economic system

a) Type of system

Russia’s economic system is characterized as a mixed economy with heavy state control The economy of Russia has gradually transformed from a planned economy into a mixed market-oriented economy It has enormous natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas In 2023, it was the world's 11th-largest economy by nominal GDP, 6th-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) according to the IMF, and 5th-largest by the World Bank

Russia’s fiscal policy strongly supports the dairy industry through increasing subsidies and state support In 2025, state support for agriculture is expected to exceed 500 billion rubles (Interfax, 2025), including the allocation of 80 billion rubles, a 1.5 increase compared to the previous year, to support the dairy industry (Interfax, 2025) However, heavy burdens on the industry comes from the 5% corporate tax rates increase, as well as rising utilization fees on agricultural machinery since January ist, 2025 (Vladislav Vorotnikov, 2025) The triples budget deficit forecast might be accountable for these changes, as in 2025, the deficit doubled to 1.7% of GDP ($46.2 billion) on falling oil revenues and rising military spending (The Moscow Times, 2025) The Stockholm Institute (SITE) estimates the true deficit is "twice as high" as official figures due to off-budget military funding through banks (Strupezewski, 2025)

Having faced with inflation under structural pressures, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) increased the prime rate to to 21% (officially 8.9% in 2024, but put at 22.1% by some estimates) to reduce demand but risk bankrupting businesses (Starosta, 2025; Bank of Russia, 2024) CBR also raised its key interest rate to 19% in late 2024 (Interfax, 2024), and with the current 20-25% interest rates on loans, it is said to be nearly impossible to finance new projects or expansions (Gerden, 2025)

To successfully navigate Russia’s challenging fiscal and monetary environment, TH Group should actively leverage the substantial government subsidies allocated to the dairy sector, which are expected to exceed 80 billion rubles in 2025, to offset rising operational costs (Interfax, 2024; Interfax, 2025) The company should also optimize its corporate tax planning to manage the recent 5% increase in tax rates and higher utilization fees on agricultural machinery (Vorotnikov, 2025) Given the steep loan interest rates of 20-25%, TH Group is advised to prioritize internal funding and explore alternative financing options, such as government-backed credit programs or partnerships, while potentially phasing expansion plans to reduce financial risk (Gerden, 2025) Additionally, close monitoring of macroeconomic developments, including Russia’s growing budget deficit and inflationary pressures, will be essential for timely adjustments to operational strategies (The Moscow Times, 2025; Seddon et al., 2024) This comprehensive approach will help TH Group maintain growth and stability amid Russia’s evolving fiscal and monetary policies

2 Economic development

Russia presents significant market potential due to its large and relatively affluent economy With a GDP of $2.02 trillion and a GDP per capita of approximately $13,817 in 2023, Russia was classified as a high-income country for the first time since 2015, reflecting nsing consumer purchasing power (World Bank, 2023; World Bank, 2024) As the world’s 4th largest economy by GDP (PPP) in 2021, Russia offers a substantial domestic market for dairy products (World Bank, 2023)

6.7% by 2021 (World Bank, 2021) suggests stable labor market conditions, although inflation remains elevated at about 9.5% as of late 2024, which could impact consumer prices (CEIC, 2024; The Moscow Times, 2025)

Additionally, Russia’s Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.821 in 2022, ranking 56th globally, indicates improving living standards and a growing middle class, which are favorable for demand in higher-quality dairy products (UNDP, 2022) However, the sizable shadow economy, estimated at 20% of GDP, may pose challenges in regulatory compliance and market transparency (The Moscow Times, 2019)

TH true MILK can benefit from Russia’s economic scale, rising income levels, and demographic indicators to expand their market, provided the company navigates inflationary pressures and informal market risks effectively

3 Financial markets

a) Exchange rates with key currencies and recent trends

Geopolitical tensions, imternational sanctions, and fluctuating energy prices have all contributed to the significant volatility of the Russian ruble’s (RUB) valuation and exchange rate with other currencies in recent years The average USD/RUB exchange rate in 2024 was approximately 92.82, although it varied significantly based on world events (Exchange-Rates.org, 2024) Financial analysts predict that the ruble will depreciate once more, possibly reaching 100 RUB/USD within the next 12 months, despite showing brief signs of strengthening as of early 2025 (around 80 per USD) (Reuters, 2025)

For TH True Milk, these currency fluctuations have important implications A strong ruble in

2025 increases the purchasing power of Russian consumers, which could support demand for premium imported goods such as high-quality pasteurized milk However, affluent urban segments willing to pay for value and safety assurances may still be drawn to premium and health-focused dairy products like TH True Milk, which emphasize natural ingredients and high quality—especially in light of domestic dairy quality concerms

From an operational standpoint, currency fluctuations can significantly affect profit margins Unless prices are changed, Vietnamese exporters will receive less VND per unit sold as a result of the weakening ruble To mitigate risks, TH True Milk may take into account some strategies such as:

e Pricing contracts in stable foreign currencies (e.g., USD or CNY)

e Using hedging tools (e.g., forward contracts) to stabilize income

e Entering partnerships with local distributors who can cover or split currency-related costs Furthermore, the Russian government and companies have been urged to increase transactions

in stable currencies like the Chinese yuan (CNY) due to the ruble’s volatility In Russian import

flexibility and lessen reliance on USD-based volatility, TH True Milk might think about using CNY for invoicing

b) Presence of currency controls/restrictions

Since 2022, Russia has enforced stringent currency controls in reaction to economic instability and Western sanctions Several extensions of these measures have been made The Russian Central Bank increased its prohibitions on international capital transfers as of late 2024 and did so until at least March 31, 2025 Residents and businesses from "friendly" countries, such as Vietnam, are permitted to transfer up to $1 million (or equivalent) per month overseas, while businesses from

"unfriendly" countries are completely prohibited from doing so (Reuters, 2024)

These restrictions require careful planning for TH True Milk Although Vietnam’s “friendly” status offers more flexible transfer options compared to sanctioned countries, profit repatriation and payment flows may still be delayed or limited TH True Milk should consider working with experienced local distributors or partners who understand the regulatory environment and can facilitate smooth transactions Additionally, avoiding transaction barriers based on the US dollar and reducing risk could be achieved by using alternative currencies like the CNY, whose use in Russian imports exceeded that of the US dollar in 2024 (Le Monde, 2024)

4, Infrastructural forces

a) Transportation (logistics)

Russia's transportation infrastructure has undergone significant changes in recent years, influenced by geopolitical shifts and internal economic strategies In 2024, Russian Railways experienced a decline in cargo volumes, reaching a 15-year low, primarily due to the redirection of trade flows to Asia, labor shortages, and supply chain issues caused by sanctions Around 1.18 billion tons of cargo were transported by the company, the lowest amount since the financial crisis of 2009 and a 4.1% drop from the year before

Despite these challenges, Russia is making a concerted effort to improve its logistics capabilities The government has announced ambitious plans to develop an International Transport Corridor (NSTC) that would connect the Indian Ocean to the Baltic and Barents Seas via a smooth railway connection By establishing a thorough transportation network linking northern Europe with the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, this corridor seeks to cut down on transit times and freight expenses

In order to boost agricultural exports and lessen its reliance on the Black Sea routes as a result

of the conflict with Ukraine, Russia is also developing its ports in the Baltic Sea With an annual capacity of up to 15 million tons, the new ports of Vysotsky and Lugaport will greatly increase Russia's ability to export grain

challenges, especially in rail transport, the ongoing infrastructure projects and port expansions may soon offer better opportunities for exporting dairy products to Russia

b) Communications

Russia boasts a robust telecommunications infrastructure, with widespread internet and mobile phone usage In Russia, there were roughly 219.8 million cellular mobile connections as of early 2024, which represents 152.5% of the country’s total population The nation’s sophisticated mobile network infrastructure is reflected in this high penetration rate, which shows that many people use multiple mobile connections

In terms of internet connectivity, Russia had about 130.8 million internet users in 2024, with around 80% accessing the internet via mobile devices The average download speed for fixed-network broadband internet was 90.40 Mbit/second, while mobile internet had an average download speed of 35.94 Mbit/second

The Russian government has been investing in the expansion of 5G networks, with commercial services launched in cities like Moscow, St Petersburg, and Kazan All cities with a population of one million or more are expected to have 5G coverage by 2026 It is anticipated that these developments will spur expansion in the telecom sector and facilitate a range of applications, including those relevant to businesses like TH True Milk

As for TH True Milk, Russia's advanced communication infrastructure offers significant advantages The widespread internet and mobile phone usage facilitate efficient communication with partners, distributors, and customers Moreover, the business's capacity to function successfully in the Russian market can also be improved by the continuous investments in 5G and broadband expansion, which can support e-commerce platforms, digital marketing initiatives, and real-time supply chain

management

IV/ Market Potential

1 Market potential

a) Current level of imports of dairy products

Russia’s dairy import landscape is shaped by a strong domestic production base but still retains a significant import component, especially for specialized and premium dairy products According to Statista, the volume of liquid milk imports into Russia peaked in 2014 at 383,000 metric tons Since then, there has been a consistent downward trend, with imports projected to reach 190,000 metric tons in 2023 and 180,000 metric tons in 2024 This decline is largely attributed to Russia’s strategic push for self-sufficiency in dairy products, following the imposition of food embargoes and increased domestic investment in the dairy sector