4 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH SITUATION AND THEORETICAL BASIS ON THE IMPACT OF POPULATION AGING ON SOCIETY IN VIETNAM.... Q0 2c cv sec 9 CHAPTER 2: RESEARCH METHODS ON THE IMPACT OF
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- Overview of the concept, causes, and trends of the aging population in Vietnam
Population aging in Vietnam significantly impacts the economy, labor market, healthcare system, social policies, and education system According to recent statistical data and research reports, the increasing proportion of elderly citizens poses challenges to workforce productivity and economic growth, as labor shortages become more prevalent The healthcare system faces heightened demand for elderly care services and chronic disease management, straining existing resources Additionally, social policies must adapt to support an aging population through pension reforms and social security adjustments, while the education system needs to prepare future generations to address these demographic shifts Overall, Vietnam's aging population necessitates comprehensive policy responses to sustain economic stability and social well-being.
- Proposing solutions to address the challenges posed by population aging and capitalize on opportunities presented by the elderly population in Vietnam
- The subject of the study 1s the issue of population aging in Vietnam and its impact on various socio-economic aspects in the country
This essay examines the aging population in Vietnam, focusing on its implications for the country's economic and social development It explores how demographic shifts negatively impact workforce productivity, healthcare demand, and social welfare systems The study highlights the challenges posed by an increasing elderly population and the need for政策制定者 to implement sustainable strategies to address these issues.
Chapter 1: Overview of research situation and theoretical basis on the impact of population aging on society in Vietnam
This article explores the research methods used to analyze the impact of population aging on Vietnamese society, providing a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and trends associated with demographic changes The study presents key findings on how an aging population affects economic growth, healthcare systems, and social security in Vietnam Finally, it offers targeted solutions to mitigate these impacts, including policy reforms, improved healthcare infrastructure, and social support systems, ensuring sustainable development amid demographic shifts.
OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH SITUATION AND
RESEARCH METHODS ON THE IMPACT OF POPULATION
Data Collection Methods - - c2 21111112211 1111121111111 1111111101111 0 1 kg lãi
This study employed a desk review approach, analyzing secondary data from diverse sources such as scholarly research publications, electronic articles, and government statistical reports to ensure comprehensive and credible insights.
Data Analysis Methods L2 1012212 21111111015 2111521111811 11x rrkg lãi
By integrating and assessing the current status of the Vietnamese population in the context of population aging, the study adopts a descriptive statistical technique
It makes use of statistical data to determine the extent to which population aging affects Vietnamese society li
RESEARCH RESULTS ON THE IMPACT OF POPULATION
Assessing the Situation of Population Aging in VIefnam
3.1.1 Satistics and Description of the Current Population in Vietnam
According to the mosr recent United Nations figures, the current population of Vietnam is 99,936,655 people as of October 30, 2023 With a population density of
Vietnam has a population density of 322 persons per square kilometer and a total land area of 310,060 square kilometers, representing 1.24% of the world’s population The country’s average age is 33.7 years, with the elderly population expected to rise from 11.86% in 2019 to 16.66% in 2029 and 26.10% in 2049 As of 2019, urban residents totaled approximately 38.36 million, accounting for 38.77% of the total population The gender ratio in Vietnam is 0.997, indicating slightly fewer men than women, which is lower than the global average.
Vietnam ranks 15th globally in terms of population, making it one of the most populous nations A detailed analysis of UN demographic data shows insights into Vietnam's population structure, including age distribution, fertility rates, and mortality rates Despite its large population, Vietnam maintains moderate crude birth and death rates, reflecting ongoing demographic and health development Understanding these trends is essential for planning sustainable economic growth and public health strategies in Vietnam.
Population aged 65+ (%) Total population (000's) Population aged 0-14 (%) Population aged 15-64 (%)
Table 3.1: Population composition in Vietnam from 1950 to 2020
[Source: Data compiled by the UN, synthesized by Wikipedia]
Period CBRI CDRI NCI TFRI IMRI
1 CBR = crude birth rate (per 1000); CDR = crude death rate (per 1000); NC natural change (per 1000); TFR = total fertility rate (number of children per woman); IMR = infant mortality rate per 1000 births
Table 3.2: Crude birth/death rates in Vietnam over 5-year cycles
[Source: Data compiled by the UN, synthesized by Wikipedia]
Over the past 70 years, population ratios in the 0–14 and 15–64 age groups have experienced significant fluctuations The proportion of young people (0–14 years) peaked at 44.2% in 1970 but sharply declined to 23.2% by 2020, reflecting changing demographic trends Conversely, the 15–64 age group's ratio fell sharply in the 1970s due to war, which reduced the working-age population through battlefield engagement, but gradually recovered to 68.9% in 2020 Notably, the population over 65 has remained relatively stable, gradually increasing from 7.9% in 1950 to present, indicating slow demographic aging. -Simplify your demographic content rewrite with Draft Alpha’s SEO-smart, coherent sentence solutions—[Learn more](https://pollinations.ai/redirect/draftalpha)
According to data table 3.2, the crude birth rate and crude death rate were relatively high during the first five decades (1950-1995) and showed a consistent downward trend over this period Notably, significant fluctuations occurred between 2015 and subsequent years, indicating recent shifts in demographic patterns.
2020, with the crude birth rate declining and the crude death rate increasing, resulting in a decrease in the population growth rate (from 11.6 mn 2010-2015 to 10.4 in 2015-
Vietnam's birth rate remained high during the wartime period (1950-1975), reflecting a robust population growth However, following the war, there was a noticeable decline in birth rates In the twenty-first century, Vietnam's fertility rate has consistently fallen below two births per woman, indicating a significant demographic shift.
Furthermore, the number of individuals over 65 in Vietnam has climbed by about
Over the past decade, the elderly population in Vietnam has increased by 4 million people, representing a steady annual growth rate of 4.35% This significant demographic shift is highlighted in the study "Population Ageing and Older Persons in Vietnam," published by the General Statistics Office and authored by U V Nam and N M Duc in 2021.
Vietnam experienced significant population growth after the war, leading to a young population and a robust labor force as the country entered the 21st century However, recent data indicate that Vietnam’s population is aging rapidly, with the birth rate steadily declining and the proportion of elderly people increasing This trend suggests that Vietnam’s population is gradually shifting towards an aging population structure, presenting challenges for future economic and social development.
3.1.2 Trends in Population Aging in Vietnam
From 2009 to 2019, the elderly population increased from 7.45 million to 11.41 million, growing from 8.68% to 11.86% of the total population The senior demographic contributed approximately 40% to the overall population growth during this period While the total population expanded by an average of 1.14% annually, the elderly population grew at a significantly higher rate of 4.35% per year The most rapidly expanding age group within the elderly population was 60-69, followed by those aged 80 and above.
The aging female population has increased at a faster rate than senior males over the years However, from 2009 to 2019, the annual growth rate of elderly women was 4.09%, which is lower than the 4.72% growth rate of elderly men This indicates that although the number of older women is rising more quickly, their population growth is slightly slower compared to their male counterparts.
The gender ratio — the number of elderly women in the same age group for every
The number of men aged 100 and older is declining across all age groups, despite the persistent age gap within the senior population Urbanization has led to an increasing share of elderly individuals residing in cities, yet as people age further, there is a notable rise in the proportion living in rural areas This demographic shift highlights the complex patterns of aging and migration among the elderly population.
Vietnam's aging index, measuring the number of seniors aged 60 and over per 100 children aged 0 to 14, is closely linked to demographic factors such as birth rate and net migration rate Provinces with lower fertility and negative net migration—where more people leave than enter—tend to have higher aging indices Conversely, regions with higher birth rates and positive migration show lower levels of population aging This relationship highlights the demographic shifts influencing Vietnam's aging population trends [U V Nam and N M Duc, 2021]
3.1.2.2 Comparisons of Population Aging in Vietnam with Other Countries
Vietnam’s population is rapidly aging, making it one of the world’s fastest aging countries
According to the United Nations, Vietnam officially entered the population aging stage in 2014, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and over expected to double from 7% to 14% within 20 years This rapid demographic shift indicates that Vietnam is transitioning from an aging to an aged society at one of the fastest rates globally By 2038, projections show that seniors will comprise 20% of the total population, making Vietnam the country with the highest proportion of elderly people in the world.
Dr Nguyen Ngoc Quynh of the United Nations Population Fund in Vietnam highlights the global trend of aging populations, noting that in 2017, one in every eight people worldwide was aged 60 and over In comparison, Vietnam had a slightly lower proportion, with one in every nine individuals aged 60 and above Projections indicate that this demographic shift is expected to continue, impacting both global and Vietnamese societies in the coming years.
17 by 2030, one in every six people in Vietnam would be 60 or older, and by 2050, one in every four persons, equivalent to around 27 million individuals
Dr Nguyen Ngoc Quynh emphasizes that Vietnam's population aged 75 and over is projected to quadruple by 2035, reaching 5 million This rapid increase highlights the country's urgent need for comprehensive elderly care and social support systems By 2035, Vietnam is expected to have an aging population comparable to Japan and South Korea, underscoring the importance of implementing policies to address the challenges of an aging society.
By 2050, Vietnam is projected to have the highest proportion of women in its elderly population among ASEAN countries, leading to unique challenges related to aging women During the decade before 2035, Vietnam will experience significant demographic shifts, with a growing elderly female population facing issues such as gender discrimination, financial insecurity, and health concerns This demographic trend highlights the urgent need for targeted policies to address the specific needs of elderly women in Vietnam.
The fast shift in the aging population structure suggests a huge challenge for Vietnam’s economic and social institutions, especially given the country’s economic growth stage.
Analysis Results on the Impact of Population Aging in Vietnam
Approximately 35% of the elderly population remained engaged in income-generating labor in both the 2009 and 2019 census surveys Employment rates among older adults are consistent across different age groups, genders, and geographic regions, indicating steady participation in the workforce over the decade.
The employment rate decreases with age, with women consistently exhibiting lower employment levels than men, and urban elderly individuals having a lower employment rate compared to their rural counterparts These disparities are largely attributable to declining physical health as people age, which reduces their ability to work Additionally, most seniors engaged in the labor force are employed in vulnerable occupations, with higher proportions among elderly men and rural seniors.
Based on this, we may identify four mechanisms via which population aging influences economic development, which are follows:
- Increased social expenses for the elderly, resulting in a decrease in development investment
3.2.2.1 Current Labor Market Situation in Vietnam
Hình 1: Lực lượng lao động từ 15 tuôi trở lên các quý, giai đoạn 2020-2022 Đơn vị tính: Triệu người
Quy! Quyll Quýll Quý Quýi Quýll Quýlll Quý Quýi Quyll Quyill năm năm năm năm năm năm năm năm năm năm năm
Figure 3.3: Labor force aged 15 and above by quarters, period 2020-2022
[Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam] 19
Vietnam’s labor market has faced significant challenges over the past three years due to societal issues like the Covid-19 pandemic and an aging population According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, the workforce aged 15 and over comprised approximately 52.1 million people in the fourth quarter.
Vietnam's workforce experienced fluctuations between 2020 and 2022 After a modest decline in the first quarter of 2020, the country's workforce shrank to 50.7 million by the fourth quarter of 2021 However, by the third quarter of 2022, the workforce had recovered and increased to 51.9 million, indicating a gradual recovery in employment levels.
Lực lượng lao động từ 15 tuổi trở lên phân theo nhóm tuổi(*) chia theo Cách tính, Năm và Nhóm tuổi
MMM Cocéu(%),2020 MMM Cocéu(%),2021 NNECơcấu(%),Sơbộ 2022
Figure 3.4: Labor force aged 15 and above categorized by age group
[Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam]
In Vietnam, labor force participation varies significantly across different age groups The highest participation is among individuals aged 25-49, with approximately 62,000 people actively engaged in the workforce Those over 50 have the second-highest participation, totaling nearly 30,000 individuals Conversely, the lowest workforce participation is observed among the 15-24 age group, with around 10,000 people These distinctions highlight the varying employment trends across age demographics in Vietnam.
20 people) The labor force between the ages of 15 and 24 is declining, while the labor force over 50 is expanding
Vietnam's workforce remains stable overall, with the highest participation rate among adults aged 25-49 However, the declining employment among the 15-24 age group and the increasing number of seniors over 50 indicate a looming demographic shift This trend suggests Vietnam is heading towards a situation where one young person may need to support four elderly individuals, highlighting challenges related to aging and workforce sustainability.
3.2.2.2 Studying the Impact of Population Aging on the Labor Market in Vietnam
Số lao động có việc làm trong nền kinh tế phân theo nhóm tuổi
Figure 3.5: Employment in the economy by age group
[Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam]
Tỷ lệ thiếu việc làm trong độ tuổi lao động phân theo nhóm tuổi
2020 2021 Sơ bộ 2022 ma4ssẽ-2⁄: mG:-2 m°90:
Figure 3.6: Unemployment rates within the working-age population by age group
[Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam]
Vietnam’s aging population significantly impacts the job market by intensifying competition among different age groups Data from Figures 3.5 and 3.6 reveal that over 50s comprise the largest employed demographic, representing 27% (13.7 million) of the workforce, while younger groups such as 15-19 and 20-24 account for only about 3% (1.45 million) and 7% (3.58 million), respectively This indicates a persistent demand for employment among older individuals who are willing to delay retirement and compete with younger workers, thereby making it challenging for the younger generation to advance in their careers due to increased rivalry.
The highest unemployment rate in Vietnam, reaching 4%, is observed among the 15 to 24 age group Vietnamese companies tend to retain experienced, older workers with valuable skills, rather than hiring new and younger employees who lack work experience This preference impacts youth employment opportunities and contributes to the overall unemployment challenge among young people.
22 company’s training procedure This preference for experienced workers exacerbates the difficulties that young people have in finding work
Vietnam largely achieved key healthcare targets by 2020, including adequate doctor-to-nurse ratios, bed-to-population ratios, and healthcare staff-to-population ratios, according to the Ministry of Health However, Deputy Minister of Health Xuan Tuyen highlighted ongoing challenges in grassroots healthcare, such as rapid population aging and emerging infectious diseases Despite progress, a 2017 WHO study ranked Vietnam 160th out of 191 countries in healthcare system performance, indicating significant room for improvement.
Vietnam’s healthcare system has achieved significant milestones; however, challenges remain in quality and efficiency An aging population significantly strains healthcare services, as infrastructure struggles to keep pace with increasing demands The elderly, being more vulnerable to diseases, require better healthcare support, highlighting the need for improvements in healthcare infrastructure and service quality to ensure comprehensive care for all citizens.
Despite increased average life expectancy, the elderly's quality of life has not significantly improved, with many facing ongoing health challenges A 2018 poll by the Institute for Population, Health, and Development found that only 1.9% of seniors considered themselves very healthy, while 3.55% felt extremely weak, and 22.7% viewed their health as not very good Common health issues among the elderly include joint inflammation/osteoarthritis, hypertension, persistent lower back pain, and digestive system illnesses Additionally, a 2019 survey revealed that 65.4% of seniors self-assessed their health negatively, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to enhance elderly well-being.
In 2011, a significant portion of the elderly population experienced poor or very weak health, accounting for 23%, while only 4.8% reported good health, with 29.8% categorized as having normal health This decline in health and aging not only reduces labor capacity and income but also leads to higher health expenditures and diminished quality of life for seniors The situation is further compounded by inadequate retirement coverage, leaving up to 50% of older adults in the "missing middle" — neither affluent nor poor — who lack access to retirement benefits or allowances, increasing their economic vulnerability.
The aging healthcare infrastructure poses significant challenges to the economy, society, and the healthcare sector Currently, the country has over 106 central and provincial hospitals with dedicated geriatric departments, around 1,000 outpatient clinics equipped with special examination rooms for the elderly, and more than 10,000 inpatient beds specifically prioritized for senior citizens.
N T L., 2020] However, reality reaveals that this system still has several shortcomings While the older population is growing, healthcare services are not fairly spread across the country They are frequently concentrated m major cities, and lower- level institutions still lack technology and experienced staff to handle the special health requirements of the elderly This condition deprives the elderly, particulary those living in rural regions, of adequate healthcare treatments
The aging population poses significant challenges to Vietnam's economic and social policies, requiring timely adaptations and reforms Addressing the needs and expectations of the elderly is essential to ensure their well-being while supporting sustainable long-term growth Policy adjustments that focus on aging demographics are crucial for maintaining social stability and fostering economic development in Vietnam.
