However, a pivotal question remains unanswered: does the level of environmental sustainability significantly impact the export, especially exports of high-tech goods?. Examining the dyna
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ON THE RELATIONSHIP
Theoretical basis
In the current context of economic globalization, international trade activities in general and import and export in particular play a very important role in the socio-economic development of any country
Foreign trade is an economic category that deals with the buying and selling of goods and services across national borders In foreign trade activities: Export is the sale of goods and services to foreign countries Importing is the purchase of foreign goods and services All import and export activities in foreign trade with a country or group of countries are called international trade or international trade
According to Article 28, Clause 1, Vietnam Commercial Law 2005: "Export of goods is the act of goods being taken out of the territory of Vietnam or brought into a special area located in the territory of Vietnam that is considered a maritime zone private according to the provisions of law."
A form of export in which sellers and buyers communicate directly with each other (by meeting, by letter, by telegram) to discuss agreements on goods, prices and other transaction conditions
This form has the advantage that profits are higher than other forms because there is no intermediary In today's modern international trade conditions, as a direct seller, the seller can enhance his reputation by ensuring the specifications and quality of goods as well as meeting needs, buyers' tastes However, this form requires the seller to be quick with information (market, price, non-tariff barriers, etc.) and at the same time, during the sales process, they can also face the same risks as the buyer Late payment or exchange rate changes,
Export through intermediaries (trusted export)
It is a form of international trading carried out with the help of a third intermediary factor and this factor will receive a certain amount of money from the above trading activity Common intermediaries in international transactions are agents and brokers
This form will reduce the seller's profits due to having to pay intermediaries However, this is a form used quite commonly today in many countries, especially poor and developing countries, because intermediaries often have a better understanding of the market (needs, tastes, specialties, ) so the opportunity to earn high profits will be greater
A form of re-exporting to other purchasing countries goods that have been purchased abroad but have not been processed in the re-exporting country The purpose of performing a re-export transaction is to buy goods in one country and then sell them at a higher price in another country and earn a capital amount greater than the initial capital spent
Re-export activities can be divided into two forms: temporary import - re- export form and border-gate transfer form, in which:
The form of temporary import - re-export is understood as buying goods from one country to sell to another country on the basis of foreign trade sales contracts, carrying out procedures to import goods, and then carrying out export procedures without thorough processing
Goods in transit are divided into two types Firstly, after entering the country, the customs authority will transport the goods to another customs location to complete import customs procedures Second, the goods at the original place of transport have gone through import-export customs procedures and are transported to a place of exit, supervised and managed by the customs of the place of exit
A method of producing export goods in which the overseas processing order provides: machinery, equipment, raw materials or semi-finished products according to predetermined samples and norms The domestic outsourcing recipient organizes the product production process according to customer needs All products made by the recipient will be returned to the person ordering the processing to receive payment
1.1.1.3 The role of exports in the economy
Export is a basic activity of foreign economic relations, a means to promote economic development Expanding exports to increase foreign exchange earnings for the country and import demand for economic development is the most important goal of trade policy The role of export is expressed through the following main aspects:
Firstly, exports create capital for imports, serving the country's industrialization and modernization
Samuelson believes that developing countries are caught in a "vicious cycle" of poverty Therefore, to break the "vicious cycle" there needs to be a "push" from the outside to help developing countries enter the take-off phase Applying this theory, countries that want to achieve economic growth need a push from the outside such as factors of capital, technology, experts, etc In which capital sources for imports and public service are used Technologicalization and modernization of the country is one of the most important factors To implement the path of industrialization and modernization of the country, we first need to import a large amount of modern machinery and equipment from outside to equip production Capital for import usually relies on the main sources: loans, aid, foreign investment and exports Loan capital must eventually be repaid, and foreign aid and investment are limited Furthermore, these sources are often dependent on foreign countries, so the most important source of capital for import is export In fact, whichever country increases its exports, its imports will also increase On the contrary, if imports are more than exports, the trade balance deficit will be too large, which can negatively affect the national economy
Second, exports contribute to economic restructuring, promoting production development
The structure of production and consumption in the world has been changing extremely strongly Economic restructuring in the process of technology and modernization in accordance with the development trend of the world economy is inevitable for our country Today, most countries take world market demand as the basis for organizing production That has a positive impact on economic restructuring, promoting production development This impact shows:
Exporting creates favorable conditions for other industries to develop Typically, developing the export textile industry will create full opportunities for developing the production of raw materials such as cotton or dyes,
Exporting creates the ability to expand consumption markets, contributing to stable production and development of domestic production
Exporting creates conditions to expand the ability to supply inputs for production and improve domestic production capacity
Third, exports play a role in promoting innovation in modern production equipment and technology
The competitiveness of exported goods depends greatly on quality and price Through the export process, countries' goods will officially participate in competition in the international market Globalization and trade liberalization have a profound and comprehensive impact, so each country and each industry participating in international trade means participating in a playground with great competitive pressure Competition forces domestic production to innovate more modern production equipment and technology, requiring production capacity and development to adapt and promote market expansion
Fourth, exports have a positive impact on creating jobs and improving people's lives
The environmental sustainability and high-technology exports nexus
Relying on the theoretical frameworks of previous scholars, the author argues that countries with higher level of environmental quality have a stronger tendency to export high technology This can be attributed to a number of factors:
1 Environmental regulations: Countries with stringent environmental regulations often have better air quality These regulations bring competitive pressure to enterprises and encourage industries to adopt cleaner production processes and technologies, to compensate for the losses caused by the increase in production costs resulting from the internalization of environmental costs (Qiang et al 2021) This not only can optimize product structure and enhance the quality of high-tech products manufactured in those countries, but also aligns with the growing global demand for green technologies High-tech products that are energy- efficient, reduce emissions, or use sustainable materials can command premium prices and capture larger market shares, thus boosting exports
Besides, countries with strong environmental credentials and regulatory frameworks that prioritize environmental sustainability are often more attractive partners for trade agreements As they align with global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainability These trade agreements can open new markets for high-tech products, further stimulating exports
2 Innovation and technology adoption: Improved air quality signifies a focus on innovation and the adoption of technologies aimed at mitigating pollution Meng et al (2022) found that green innovation is the most effective tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in BRICST economies over a time period 1995– 2020 In the same manner, Hashmi and Alam (2019) concluded that regulation and the adoption of "green technologies" rather than “non-environmental technologies" significantly reduce carbon emissions and improve national air quality This emphasis on innovation can spill over into the high-tech sector, leading to the development of cutting-edge technologies and products that are in demand globally
3 Reputation and market access: Countries known for their commitment to environmental sustainability often enjoy a positive reputation in global markets This reputation serves as a powerful differentiator in competitive international arenas As consumers and businesses worldwide become increasingly environmentally conscious, they are more likely to favor products from countries known for their environmental efforts Consequently, high-tech products from these nations can achieve preferential status, leading to increased demand and higher export volumes
Cleaner air creates healthier environments for workers, enhancing productivity and reducing health-related costs Additionally, sustainable practices often involve more efficient use of resources, reducing production costs in the long run These factors collectively contribute to the competitiveness of high-tech products in the global market, as they are not only technologically advanced but also produced sustainably
4 Investment and infrastructure: As investors are increasingly considering environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in their decision-making processes Investing in environmental quality helps fostering domestic and international investor confidence Indeed, the experimental findings of Trinh et al
(2022) highlight the importance of infrastructure investments towards achieving the
SDGs They emphasize that low-carbon infrastructure, such as eco-friendly transportation and clean energy, is essential for mitigating climate change, promoting a sustainable global transition, and benefiting various sectors, including high-tech manufacturing While Polzin et al (2015) reinforce this point by suggesting that direct investment in public infrastructure accelerates renewable energy deployment, which is a vital factor in greening the production processes of export products; the work of Liu & Wang (2023) underscores of ICT infrastructure advancements in bolstering environmental quality As a result, a conducive business environment with clean air, strong ecological track record can attract foreign investment in high-tech industries, providing the capital needed for research, development, and expansion This influx of investment can lead to the production of more advanced and desirable high-tech products, boosting export potential
Overall, environmental quality stimulates the export of high-tech products by enhancing a country's global reputation, driving innovation, fostering sustainable industrial practices, facilitating international trade agreements, and attracting investment These factors collectively contribute to the competitive edge and increased demand for high-tech products from environmentally responsible countries, reinforcing the crucial link between environmental sustainability and economic growth through exports.
SUMMARY
Chapter 1 presented in detail the theoretical framework concerning environmental quality and the export of high-tech products This chapter also explored the factors influencing the export performance of high-technology commodities and discussed the correlation between environmental sustainability and technology products export Building upon this theoretical foundation, the author will proceed to select an appropriate research model and gather research data in Chapter 2.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA SAMPLING
Research model and hypothesis development
2.1.1 Overview of research models about the impact of environmental sustainability on high-technology exports
To determine model variables analyzing the correlation between environmental sustainability and high-technology exports, the thesis drew upon prior scholarly works by the authors listed below:
Zapata et al (2023) used results obtained from generalized least squares
(GLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation method to explain the drivers of exports of high-technology content manufactures in all 35 OECD countries covering 15 years (2004 to 2018) through the following equation: log(𝑋𝐻𝐼𝐺𝐻) 𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽 0 + 𝛽 1 log(𝐺𝐹𝐺𝐹) 𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽 2 log(𝐿𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝑖𝑡 )
- Dependent variables: “XHIGH” considers two alternative measures of technology-intensive exports, consisting of total exports of high-technology manufacturing industries and total exports over employment
+ “GFCF” is a representative factor of national physical capital and labor (gross fixed capital formation over total employment)
+ “LAND” captures the land area per capita
+ “UNIVERSITY” is a proxy variable for human capital calculated by the percentage of college graduates compared to the population
+ “R&D” measures R&D expenditure relative to GDP in current dollars, implying innovation and knowledge creation
+ “FDI” is the stock of inward FDI in terms of GDP in current dollars
+ “IMPORTS” is thousands of current dollars of imports of high-tech products per GDP
+ “INSTITUTIONAL” are types of institutional quality variables, indicating the governance quality of a nation
+ “POP” shows the size of the exporting economy, measured by the population in thousands
+ “EUROPE” is a dummy that takes value 1 if the country belongs to the European Union and 0 otherwise
- “𝛼 𝑡 ” signifies a prevalent time-related influence, depicted as a trend in this case
- “𝜈 𝑖 ” represents a random effect specific to each country
Özsoy et al (2021) assessed how the ICT Development Index (IDI) and its components affect high-technology exports across countries of varying development levels Using panel data of 122 developed and developing countries around the world between 2007 and 2017, with a dynamic specification and the two-step system GMM method, the authors employed four estimation models to test their hypotheses as follows:
- The dependent variable: Highex represents the current value of high-tech product exports, serving as a proxy for the technology intensity of export
+ IDI (i): The ICT Development Index, considered as an indicator of a country's digitalization level
+ Access (ii): ICT readiness, the first sub-component of IDI, reflects the level of network infrastructure and access to ICTs
+ Use (iii): ICT usage in the community is the second dimension of IDI + Skill (iv): ICT skill, the third aspect of IDI, shows the ICT capacity to foster an information society
- Control is a set of control variables, such as:
+ Gov Spending: general government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP)
+ Investment: gross capital formation (% of GDP)
+ Saving: gross domestic savings (% of GDP)
+ ICT_GI: ICT goods imports (% of total goods imports)
Qiang et al (2021) analyzed the impact of environmental regulation on export trade in China, as well as the degree, trend, and channel through which environmental regulation affects export trade, via using quantile regression model and instrumental variables (IV)‐two‐stage least‐squares (2SLS) estimation method in 30 provinces of China from 2008 to 2017 The model takes the following form:
- Dependent variable: lnEXP shows the total export trade
- Independent variable: lnER is a proxy variable for the intensity of environmental regulation
- Control variables: X represents for a group of control variables include + FDI is the amount of actual usage of foreign capital, reflecting the ability of provinces to absorb foreign funds
+ GDP captures per capita gross domestic product of each province, implying regional economies of scale
+ Regional R&D investment (R&D), measures the amount of innovation investment in a certain region
+ Total factor productivity (TFP) is a proxy variable for the efficiency of technological progress
Drawing on previous research, this thesis applies quantitative methods to explore how the level of environmental sustainability influences technology- intensive exports at a national scale across 67 countries during the period from 2007 to 2022 The author builds a mechanism framework based on the theoretical basis and research overview, outlining the relationships between the factors as follows:
Figure 2.1: Mechanism of interaction between factors
The above mechanism was developed based on the study of Zapata et al
(2023), ệzsoy et al (2021) and Qiang et al (2021) The research hypothesis proposed in Figure 2.1 is:
H1 The low level of environmental sustainability negatively affects exporting products with high technological content
According to suggestions from earlier research frameworks, the author chose the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) as a measure of the country's environmental quality To study the impact of environmental sustainability on high- technology exports, the following model is applied:
- The dependent variable: HIGHTECH_EXP indicates the current export value of technology-intensive products, measured in U.S dollars High-technology product exports refer to ‘exports of products with high R&D intensity, such as aerospace, computers-office machines, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electrical machines, chemistry, non-electrical machines and armament’ (World Bank, 2024)
- The explanatory variable: EPI stands for Environmental Performance Index score, which suggests a weighted combination of various indices to measure environmental performance It serves as a management tool for evaluating environmental damage and identifying environmental inefficiencies of a nation
- Control is the vector of the control variables frequently used in the previous exports literature, including:
+ GDP: Gross Domestic Product at constant 2015 prices in US dollars; represents the economic size of each country
+ POPG: Population growth rate (annual %)
+ PHYSICAL_CAPITAL: Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)
+ ICT_IMPORTS: ICT goods imports (% total goods imports)
- 𝛿 𝑖 : the country-fixed effects, which is included to control for the heterogeneity of unobservable factors at the country-level
- i, t denote the target country and the year of observation, respectively
To reduce data deviation, the author converted the original data of the variables HIGHTECH_EXP, GDPPC, POPG, PHYSICAL_CAPITAL, ICT_IMPORTS, and TOP to logarithms The variable definitions of model (1) are presented in Table 2.1
Table 2.1: Variable descriptions of model (1)
Variables Description/ Measure Expected signs with dependent variable Dependent variable
Logarithm of Export of High Technology
EPI Developed through the Principal Component Negative -
Analysis (PCA) method of 5 EPI indicators for air pollution, namely NOx exposure, VOC exposure, SO2 exposure, PM 2.5 exposure, and greenhouse gas emissions per capita, based on the Starostka-Patyk et al (2024) framework
GDP Logarithm of GDP (constant 2015 US$) Positive + POPG Logarithm of population growth (annual %) Positive +
Logarithm of gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)
Logarithm of ICT goods imports (% total goods imports)
TOP Logarithm of trade openness (export and
Based on the theoretical basis of factors affecting high-technology exports, the thesis makes the following hypotheses about the direction of impact of variables:
- The EPI variable is expected to have a negative relationship with high- technology exports, deteriorating environmental quality, heightened air pollution and increased concentrations of harmful substances diminish national environmental stability and sustainability Subsequently, the motivation to produce high-tech export products is lost
- The GDP variable is expected to be positively correlated with HIGHTECH_EXP Previous theories have proven that economic size has a significant relationship to a country's purchasing power and overall economic strength Then, investment in research, development and innovation is greater, spurring the growth of high-tech industries and boosts high-tech exports
- The POPG variable representing population growth rate is expected to have a positive impact on the export value of high-tech goods
- The PHYSICAL_CAPITAL variable is anticipated to boost or hinder high- tech exports This is a proxy for heightened investment in infrastructure, essential for the development of technology industries and enhancing productive capacity However, this could increase production costs, including depreciation, maintenance, repair expenses,… thereby reducing the competitiveness of the country's high-tech products compared to those of countries with lower production costs, ultimately resulting in a decline in exports
- Based on previous research, the ICT_IMPORTS is assumed to have a favorable relationship with the high-tech exports variable The import of modern materials and technology will provide essential technology and components necessary for high-tech manufacturing thus boosting high-tech exports
- The TOP variable, which indicates a country's level of openness and willingness to cooperate in trade, is the driving force for high technological products exports.
Data sampling
The study spans a 15-year period from 2007 to 2022 and includes data from
67 countries in seven regions: East Asia & Pacific, Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & Caribbean, Middle East & North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa The author determined the selection of sample countries and the research time frame based on available data from various sources Table 2.2 presents the data utilized in the thesis along with their respective sources
Table 2.2: Description and source variables
Variables Description Data source Justification
Export of High Technology Products (Current US $)
Index (EPI) score typically ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 is very poor environmental performance and
100 is very high environmental performance
Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy (YCELP)
(2021), Starostka-Patyk et al (2024), Boleti et al
GDP Gross Domestic Product (constant
POPG Population growth (annual %) World
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) encompasses land improvements, plant, machinery; equipment purchases; and the construction of infrastructure
(2021), Zapata et al (2023), Portugal-Perez
(roads, railways, schools, offices, hospitals, buildings)
ICT goods imports (% total goods imports)
TOP Trade openness, sum of imports and exports as a percentage of GDP
To measure high-technology exports, the author selected data on current export value of technology-intensive products extracted from the World Development Index (WDI) website of the World Bank; relied on the empirical models of ệzsoy et al (2021) and Zapata et al (2023)
The writer uses principal components analysis (PCA) to transform the five sub-indicators of the Environmental Performance Index, a synthesized index of environmental quality developed by Yale University and Columbia University in collaboration with the World Economic Forum and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre into a unified variable termed as EPI From the EPI point of view as well as Starostka-Patyk et al (2024), the most important issues are outdoor air pollutants, which are directly related to economic activities and are considered the most serious hazards to human health at the global level:
1 Outdoor air pollution (PM2.5 exposure)
2 Sulfur dioxide emissions (SO2 exposure)
3 Nitrogen oxide emissions (NOx exposure)
4 Non-methane volatile organic compound emission (VOC exposure)
5 Industrial greenhouse gas emissions (Greenhouse gas emissions per capita)
Finally, data on other variables include GDP per capita (GDPPC); population growth (UPOPG), gross fixed capital formation (PHYSICAL_CAPITAL), ICT goods imports (ICT_IMPORTS), and trade openness (TOP) are all collected from WDI Data for missing years are replaced by the value of the previous year
By gathering all the data sources above, the study curated a strongly balanced dataset This dataset is utilized to examine hypotheses concerning the relation between sustainable environmental development and high-tech exports.
Research methodology
Using equation (1) as the basis, the author initially performed regressions employing the OLS method, as well as multidimensional fixed effects (to solve missing variables in panel data), including cluster standard errors by country-year to ascertain the impact of variables This method controls for fixed effects at multiple levels, eliminating noise from unobserved factors and enhancing the precision of estimates In multiway fixed effects regression, the "multiway” aspect refers to incorporating fixed effects across various dimensions In this thesis, the panel data set includes both countries and years Multidimensional fixed effects regression creates fixed effects for each country and each year, contrasting with traditional fixed effects models that typically account for fixed effects in only one dimension (either by country or by year) For panel data, issues like serial correlation and heteroscedasticity often arise, potentially distorting the accurate estimation results of the model Autocorrelation, or serial correlation, refers to a situation where the error term in a model is correlated with one or more variables in the model, without being affected by disturbance expression related to other variables Heteroscedasticity in panel data occurs when the variance of errors differs across observations Therefore, the author plans to incorporate cluster standard errors by spatial and temporal dimensions (country-year) into the regression model to overcome these phenomena Cluster adjustment ensures accurate standard deviations and t-statistics by adjusting the size of the standard error to reflect the degree of autocorrelation in the data This process leads to more precise estimation of regression coefficients, enhancing the reliability of statistical analysis and testing
Besides, the author believes that the variable EPI represents environmental quality in the equation can be an endogenous variable according to Umar & Safi
(2023) and Boleti et al (2021) Endogenous phenomenon indicates the emergence of a cause-and-effect (causality) relationship between the explained and independent variables This happens because not only does environmental degradation affect high-technology exports, but conversely exports can also have a negative impact on environmental performance Consequently, endogeneity undermines the effectiveness of regression results and estimations using conventional methods like OLS and FE, since these methods assume a linear, one- way relationship between variables, whereas the relationship is often two-way and more complex Consequently, estimates derived from traditional regression techniques may be unreliable, biased, and inaccurate
To detect endogeneity problems in such models, the Two-Stages Least Square (2SLS)/Instrumental Variable regression strategy is often applied for panel data It is an effective statistical technique used to accurately estimate coefficients in regression models when encountering endogeneity problems This method involves two stages:
In the first stage, a regression model is estimated using an instrumental variable to predict the dependent variable An instrumental variable is a variable that is not correlated with the error term but predicts the dependent variable effectively
In the second stage, the predicted values of the instrumental variable from the first stage are used as independent variables in the main regression model Coefficients are then estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method
However, this method has limitations, as finding and selecting instrumental variables that satisfy both conditions: correlation with the explanatory variable and uncorrelation with the error term can be challenging If not satisfied, instrumental variables will be considered as weak, further complicating efforts to overcome the endogeneity phenomenon Therefore, the IV/2SLS strategy performs important tests to evaluate the validity of the model and the reliability of the estimated results
+ Kleibergen-Paap rk LM test: Determines the predictive ability of the instrumental variable for the dependent variable A low p-value signifies a strong instrumental variable
+ Cragg-Donald Wald F test: Similar to the Kleibergen-Paap rk LM test, focusing on the predictive power of the instrumental variable in stage 1 A high F value indicates a strong instrumental variable
- Under-identification Test: Evaluates if the model contains sufficient information to estimate coefficients A high p-value indicates wide identification
- Weak Identification Test: Examines if the instrumental variable is too weak, resulting in significant deviations in the estimate A high p-value suggests the instrumental variable is sufficiently strong
- Anderson-Rubin test: Evaluates if there are violations of orthogonality conditions A high p-value indicates no violation of the orthogonality assumption
- Hansen J test: Checks for overidentification, indicating if there are more instrumental variables than necessary High p-values indicate no overidentification
In the empirical estimation, the author employs a one-period lag of the potentially endogenous variable (Ecological Footprint) and country fixed effects in the baseline model The main idea is to find instruments correlated with the explanatory variable (EPI) but exogenous to the independent variable (high- technology exports) at the country level In a first-stage regression, the EPI variable that captures environmental quality is regressed on this excluded instrument In a second-stage regression, the instrument variable's validity is assessed using the two- stage least squares method (2SLS) to mitigate endogeneity in high-technology exports
Furthermore, the author utilizes the Driscoll-Kraay standard error technique with fixed effects as a remedy for the cross-sectional dependence problem, which was suggested by Hoechle (2007) This approach ensures the reliability of panel regression results by testing their robustness in various aspects
After choosing the research methodology, collecting data for variables and establishing a complete regression equation, the author continues to run the econometric model to test the research hypothesis The regression results and analysis are presented in the following chapters.
SUMMARY
In Chapter 2, the author reviewed research articles and experimental documents with similar objectives as those of previous scholars and author groups This was done to construct an appropriate research model aimed at yielding meaningful outcomes By synthesizing, comparing, and evaluating these documents, the author identified suitable variables and formulated the primary equation to address the influence of environmental quality on high-tech product exports Additionally, the chapter clearly outlines the research methodology and procedures for selecting and gathering observational data Subsequently, the author plans to run regression analysis to test the research hypotheses Chapter 3 will focus on presenting and analyzing the research findings.
ECONOMETRIC RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH MODEL
Statistical description
This study uses Stata 15.0 software to conduct statistical data regression analysis from 67 countries worldwide, spanning seven regions: East Asia & Pacific, Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & Caribbean, Middle East & North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, covering the period from 2007 to 2022 Descriptive statistics for all variables are illustrated in Table 3.1 The number of observations for each variable range from 816 to 1072 due to objective limitations in data collection It can be seen from Table 3.1 that all variables exhibit positive mean values and standard deviations, with notable distribution peaks The mean value of the variable HIGHTECH_EXP is 21.957, and the standard deviation accounts for 2.768 In general, there are variations in high-tech export values among countries, ranging from 6.13 to 27.57
The disparity in average income per capita is evident between low-income and high-income countries According to the World Bank classification (GFFD), the
67 countries under study can be categorized into two main groups: high-income and middle-income groups, as detailed in Appendix 2 The environmental performance (EPI) values go from -3.52 to 3.39, indicating notable differences in environmental quality among countries within each region While some nations demonstrate robust economic growth alongside favorable environmental conditions, others, particularly less economically developed countries, encounter environmental pollution
Variable Obs Mean Std Dev Min Max
Source: Author's calculations using Stata 15.0 software
Similarly, variables such as population growth rate (POPG), ICT material import volume (ICT_IMPORTS), and trade openness (TOP) also exhibit considerable variation among countries, with mean values of -0.34, 1.997, and 4.429, respectively Moreover, descriptive statistics reveals that PHYSICAL_CAPITAL has the lowest standard deviation out of the control variables, standing at 0.24 This suggests that the seven considered regions have minimal difference in infrastructure and fixed asset investment levels
Source: Author's calculations using Stata 15.0 software
Table 3.2 presents correlation coefficients among variables used in this study The correlation matrix table reveals that there is a positive relationship between environmental performance and the export value of high-technology products It's important to note that the correlation matrix results are only relative, with the intent to evaluate whether the variables have a linear relationship with each other, not representing the true level of correlation To ascertain this true correlation, the author will perform further regression analysis to obtain accurate estimations According to the pairwise correlation matrix results, all correlation coefficients are below 0.8; thus, there may not exist a multicollinearity issue in my theoretical models.
Estimation results of the effect of environmental sustainability on high-
To evaluate the impact of environmental quality on high-technology product exports, the author employs regression analysis on Model (1) first using the
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method After that, the study continues to estimate the equation according to the multidimensional fixed effects model with standard errors clustered by country-year to address concerns regarding heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation Table 3.3 reports the regression outcomes of Model (1), encompassing both bivariate and multivariate regressions with and without fixed effects In which, column 3 displays regression estimates with EPI as the variable- of-interest, incorporating all control variables and country fixed effects, with bidirectionally clustered standard errors This column provides the primary findings of the analysis
Variables HIGHTECH_EXP HIGHTECH_EXP HIGHTECH_EXP
Country FE NO YES YES
S.E clustered by Country-year Country-year Country-year
Source: Author's calculations using Stata 15.0 software
My results suggest that there is a negative relationship between environmental performance (EPI) and high-technology exports EPI, synthesized from five pollutants indexes, is statistically significant at the 5% level and equals - 0.122, implying that the level of air pollution has a remarkably negative effect on high-tech exports and causes high-tech exports to decrease by 0.122 The finding is in line with initial research expectations and supports Hypothesis 1 that environmental degradation depresses exports value of high-technology products Notably, the significance of EPI does change after adding control variables such as GDP, POPG, PHYSICAL_CAPITAL, ICT_IMPORTS, and TOP
Low environmental quality negatively impacts high-tech exports in several ways Firstly, low environmental performance signifies deteriorating environmental conditions, meaning regulations and standards related to environmental sustainability are few or ineffective This exacerbates the strain on ecosystems already under pressure from industrialization and urbanization Consequently, the decline of natural resources hinders the development and operation of high-tech industries, as the quality conditions of exported products is not guaranteed In addition, poor environmental conditions pose a major threat to human health, reducing the quality of human resources that are the core of national production capacity and economic productivity The export value of high-tech industries also decreased as a result
Furthermore, concerns over environmental degradation can tarnish a country's reputation as a reliable producer of high-quality and environmentally sustainable products, resulting in decreased demand for high-tech exports This, coupled with a decline in attractiveness to foreign investors, may lead to a reduction in the frequency and scale of technology transfer and cooperation Ultimately, environmental issues may escalate production costs and operational inefficiencies for high-tech firms, further hampering their competitiveness in global markets In essence, poor environmental quality can diminish the allure and competitive edge of a country's high-tech exports
Poor air quality also signifies a lack of focus on research and development of environmental solutions such as innovation and adoption of greener technologies This contrasts with the results of Meng et al (2022) that green innovation is the most effective tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in BRICST economies over a time period 1995– 2020, and Hashmi and Alam (2019) about the greener technologies, the lower carbon emissions Therefore, the spillover effect of innovation to high-tech industries will be limited, narrowing the conditions for producing and developing these advanced products
By regressing the data in the subsample of country’s region, the writer finds that the correlation between EPI and technology-intensive product exports exists in most regions except for Latin America & Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa areas, in which the environmental performance affect the high-tech export values of Middle East & North Africa, North America, and South Asia countries the most significantly (see Appendix 3) The explanation for this may be due to data sample differences between countries in each region Besides, the main cause comes from the current situation of the regions themselves
In the Middle East & North Africa, countries prioritize the extraction and export of oil, gas, and fossil fuels to promote economic growth, while ignoring the application of strict environmental regulations Consequently, this region experiences notably high concentrations of environmental pollutants This observation aligns with findings from Qiang et al (2021), showing that environmental regulations can affect export trade to a certain extent Air pollution not only aggravates social unrest and conflicts in the Gaza Strip, but also reduces incentives for investing in modern science and technology applications This, in turn, slows down the progress of industrial structural reform and the transition towards high-tech exports
South Asian countries, boasting one of the world's largest populations and consumer markets, are grappling with significant long-term macroeconomic challenges For example, inequality of opportunity, due to unfair socio-economic divisions, as well as rising interest rates and high public debt, which causes economic recessionary pressure Therefore, addressing air pollution is not a top priority in this area In fact, South Asia was reported to have the worst air quality in the world in 2023 according to the 2023 IQAir World Air Quality Report Thus, the environmental costs of high-tech exports here are clearer compared to others
In terms of the North American region, this is where economic and technological powerhouses like the United States, Mexico, and Canada… are concentrated These countries are actively expanding intra-bloc development cooperation to become a center for clean energy supply and a leader in solving the global climate crisis A set of standards for developing hydrogen as a clean energy source has been released, along with policies implemented to promote the use of zero-emission vehicles and the switch to cleaner fuels These efforts have led to improvements in regional environmental sustainability, thereby facilitating the commercial production and export of high-technology goods that are more environmentally friendly This is consistent with the change in the expected sign of the EPI variable
Subsequently, the author turns her attention to the effect of control variables on high-technology exports From column 3 of Table 3.3, the author finds evidence that the size of the economy, expressed by GDP, plays a vital role in driving the total value of export flows of manufactured goods with high-technological content This finding is aligned with many other studies, such as Qiang et al (2021), Nguyen
Regarding the population variable, my findings are aligned with Zapata et al
(2023) when reporting that the percentage of population growth in these regions is a positive driver of the total value of exported manufactures with high-technological content In parallel with the human capital, the ICT_IMPORTS coefficient, an indicator of innovation, shows that an 1% increase in the import rate of technological materials will lead to an increase in the export value of high-tech products by 0.987% with a 1% statistical significance This result is perfectly in line with Zapata et al (2023) conclusion that importing high-tech manufactured products is one of the important stages in the international export value chain
Malik et al (2021) claim that economic openness reduces information gaps, builds trust, and reduces conflicts, which, in turn, minimizes information asymmetry and improves sustainability This conclusion is favored with the findings of Essandoh et al (2020), Tebaldi (2011) and my essay in reflecting the positive impact of trade openness (TOP) on high-tech exports
The thesis also examines the direct effect of gross fixed capital formation on high-technology exports The negative coefficient of PHYSCIAL_CAPITAL, contrary to the author's initial expectations, suggests that an 1% increase in capital investment in terms of infrastructure and fixed assets is linked to 0.423% lower levels of high-tech manufacturing exports for all researched regions This is supported by Özsoy et al (2021) and Zapata et al (2023) results, but contradicts Portugal-Perez and Wilson (2012) These differences are possible since Portugal- Perez and Wilson (2012) considers a broad range of infrastructure including both hard and soft infrastructure And in this case, the lack of observation samples and data differences among regions can act as a cause Another reason from Tebaldi
(2011) is that high-tech activities are human capital intensive, not physical capital intensive
All the above research outcomes altogether corroborate Hypothesis 1 - The low level of environmental sustainability, indicated by low environmental performance, or poor air quality, negatively affects exporting products with high technological content
I further investigate the persistence of the relationship between environmental performance and high-tech exports by substituting the EPI in Model
1 with its one-year, two-year, and three-year lags for a group of middle-income countries I then include all these lags simultaneously in Model 1 and perform a regression analysis This approach allows for an examination of the impact of environmental quality on high-tech exports over specific periods If the impact is persistent, the coefficients for the EPI variable and its lags should be negative and statistically significant If not, the influence of EPI on high-tech exports may be short-term or driven by unknown factors or mechanisms not covered in this study The regression results are presented in Table 3.4
Table 3.4 The persistence of the impact in middle-income countries
GDP 0.660*** 0.664** 0.621** 1.055*** [2.65] [2.46] [2.02] [4.07] POPG 0.0905** 0.0935*** 0.0900** 0.0781** [2.59] [2.68] [2.52] [2.24] PHYSICAL_CAPITAL -0.429** -0.403* -0.413* -0.294 [-1.98] [-1.89] [-1.84] [-1.28] ICT_IMPORTS 1.133*** 1.107*** 1.085*** 1.065*** [12.20] [11.64] [11.16] [10.19] TOP 0.827*** 0.814*** 0.768*** 0.650*** [3.50] [3.33] [3.06] [2.89] Constant -0.154 -0.214 1.141 -9.579 [-0.02] [-0.03] [0.13] [-1.32]
Country FE YES YES YES YES
S.E clustered by Country-year Country-year Country-year Country-year
Robustness analysis
Table 3.5 Fixed effect regression with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) standard errors
Source: Author's calculations using Stata 15.0 software
Problems of heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, and general forms of cross- sectional dependence are prevailing in panel data However, Hoechle (2007) signifies that it can be handled efficiently by the Driscoll and Kraay standard errors The outcomes of fixed effect regression with this technique agree highly with Hypothesis 1 as well as the baseline results: the environmental performance (EPI) formed by the group of air pollutants is significantly and negatively associated with the export value of high-tech manufactured merchandise after addressing cross- sectional dependence issues Other control variables also maintain the same level and direction of impact on the export value of technology products as shown in the afore-mentioned table
As discussed in section 2.3, model (1) faces potential endogeneity issues The best way to control them is to use Fixed-effects Two-Stages Least Square/Instrumental Variable (2SLS/IV) analysis Therefore, the one-period lag variable of the exogenous variable from the model - Ecological Footprint index (EF) published by Global Footprint Network (GFN) - is introduced as an instrumental variable in model (1) The estimation results using the 2SLS/IV regression method are shown in Table 3.6
Table 3.6 Instrumental variable regression results
Variables First stage Second stage
Source: Author's calculations using Stata 15.0 software
Firstly, the results indicate that the coefficient of the EPI variable is negatively significant In the fixed-effects 2SLS/IV estimation, I observe that:
(a) F-test of excluded instruments in the first stage is significant at 1% and exceeds 10 in all IV regressions Thus, the author can reject the null hypothesis that the instrument is weak
(b) The Underidentification test reveals that the minimum canonical correlation between our endogenous variable (EPI) and the instrument (L.EF) is significantly different from zero
(c) The Kleibergen-Paap values (38.896) are higher than the 10% maximal
IV size value (16.38) in the Stock-Yogo weak identification test, suggesting the appreciation of the instrumental variable
(d) Hansen J statistics in the Overidentification test, with p < 0.1%, also specify that the instrumental variable is relevant and strong
Subsequently, the instrument (one-period lag of EF) satisfies the exogeneity condition The results then confirm my previous conclusion, which states that environmental degradation noticeably hinders high-tech exports after controlling for endogeneity issues, similar to the baseline results.
SUMMARY
Chapter 3 presents the findings of testing and estimating the relationship between environmental sustainability and the export value index of technology- intensive products using the 2SLS/IV regression method Moreover, the robustness of the regression model results is checked using the Driscoll-Kraay standard errors with fixed effect technique The results indicate that a decline in environmental performance, particularly in air quality, adversely affects the export output of high- tech manufacturing industries The magnitude of this impact varies across regions due to differences in socio-economic and environmental conditions It is also found that this relationship remains strong in the medium term for middle-income countries However, the effect may change direction after a period of three years Thus, enhancing environmental sustainability by reducing air pollution emerges as a critical driver for advancing the production and export of high-tech products Based on these findings, the author will propose recommendations and policy implications to upgrade environmental performance and achieve sustainable growth in high-tech exports for Vietnam.
CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS TO
Conclusions
The impact of air quality and integrating technological intensity into exports in geographically dispersed countries can offer valuable insights for policymakers and economists However, surprisingly, there is limited research on these influences, especially on environmental issues Relying on prior empirical studies, the thesis investigates the correlation between environmental quality and the export of high-technology products covers a 15-year timeframe from 2007 to 2012, across
67 countries in seven regions namely East Asia & Pacific, Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & Caribbean, Middle East & North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa By employing multiway fixed effects regression and two-stage least squares IV/(2SLS) method, the author arrives at the following conclusions:
Initially, the study illustrates the beneficial impact of environmental quality (measured by the environmental performance index - EPI) on the export value of technological products Additionally, the rise in the export volume of these products could be determined by factors such as economic development level, market size, innovation through technology imports, and the degree of international business openness The results from robustness check using IV/2SLS estimator confirm the reliability and consistency of the proposed model, aligning with expectations Explicitly, it seems that countries prioritizing environmental sustainability via air pollution control (lower exposure to PM2.5, lower CO2, SO2, methane and nitrous oxide emissions) can stimulate the export of high-tech manufacturing industries and enhance economic efficiency in foreign trade To boost environmental quality, governments should support and monitor businesses in technology-intensive fields like Aerospace, Computer, Electronics, Telecommunications, Pharmaceuticals, Scientific Instruments, Electrical Machines, Chemistry, Non-Electrical Machines, and Weapons to adopt greener practices and more environmentally-respectful production cycles Simultaneously, taking countermeasures to confront and mitigate toxic pollutants and transition to renewable energy sources on a large scale Facing the global challenge of climate change, effective improvement of environmental quality requires close coordination and cooperation among all countries worldwide
4.2 Current status of environmental performance and export situation of high- tech products in Vietnam
Looking at long-term results, the 2022 EPI report evaluates 180 countries around the world, of which, Vietnam ranks 130/180 (just above Mali at 131st) with a score of 26.50/100 in this category While Vietnam's air quality score has increased by 4.2 points compared to a decade ago, indicating significant progress; the country is still the most polluted in the region This consolidates the empirical evidence, as Vietnam falls within the group of middle-income economies, where low environmental index coupled with poor air quality
Figure 4.1 Air quality (EPI) of Vietnam in the period 2010-2022
Source: Author’s synthesis from https://epi.yale.edu/
This improvement can be attributed to Vietnam's establishment of nationwide sustainable development targets and enhanced policies Over recent years, the state management apparatus in the natural resources and environment sector has been restructured and consolidated at both central and local levels, ensuring consistent and effective implementation For instance, a robust multi- sector management model has been established to oversee natural resources, environment, and climate change According to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, in 2022, significant progress has been made in addressing environmental pollution, with 372 out of 435 problematic facilities effectively handled
In reality, IQAir's 2022 global air quality report shows that Vietnam's PM 2.5 fine dust concentration in 2021 was 24.7 μg/m3, which tends to temporarily decrease compared to 2019 and 2020 during the Covid-19 lockdown However, Vietnam still ranks 5th among 9 Southeast Asian countries and 36th globally out of
177 countries with high pollution levels Particularly in large urban areas, pollution sources like dust, emissions from economic activities, and transportation significantly affect air quality, with vehicle emissions being a major contributor The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that transportation contributes 24.34% of annual carbon emissions, with light cars, trucks, and buses accounting for 44%, 27%, and 6%, respectively Fossil fuel usage in motor vehicles (gasoline and diesel) leads to emissions of SO2, NO2, CO, and various dust particles (TSP, PM10, PM2.5)
Clearly, alongside challenges from international trade integration and cross- border pollution, the root cause lies in the overlapping and inadequate legal policy system for environmental protection, ineffective environmental management tools, and the delayed new management approaches to address rapid environmental developments and meet the demands of socio-economic development and international integration Moreover, businesses' awareness and capacity for environmental management remain limited, and there is a lack of financial resources mobilization for environmental protection efforts
4.2.2 Vietnam's high-tech product exports situation
Figure 4.2 Export turnover of Vietnam’s 5 largest export products in the period 2010-2022
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
During the 15 years of research, high-tech products have always been Vietnam's key products Among the top five products with the highest export turnover including phones and components; electronic goods, computers and components; and machinery, equipment, and tools can be classified as high- technology products, all of which have shown a trade surplus Over the past decade, the quality of Vietnam's export growth has significantly improved, shifting towards industrialization and modernization, increasing the proportion of processed and manufactured goods, and reducing the proportion of raw and semi-processed goods
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Vietnam's ranking in total import and export turnover rose from 50th in 2007 to 22nd in 2020 It is obvious that the two key export commodities in 2022 which are phones and components, and electronics, computers and components In particular, the major markets of the first group are China, the United States, EU, Korea, UAE, and Hong Kong
Table 4.1: Export markets for phones and components in 2022
Source: Compiled from statistics of the General Department of Customs
In 2022, despite phones and components maintaining the leading position in terms of the country's total export turnover, it only increased by 0.8% compared to
2021 This slowdown indicates a decline in demand of this industry during the last months of the year, attributed to a sharp decrease in export orders, regardless of the introduction of new high-end folding smartphone products such as the Samsung Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4
Table 4.2: Export markets for computers, electronic products and components in 2022
Source: Trade and Industry Information Center The second key export group encompasses computers, electronic products, and components amounted to $55.53 billion, rising by 9.3% compared to 2021 and constituting 14.96% of the country's total export turnover Notably, FDI enterprises contributed over $54.6 billion to this turnover, reflecting a 9.9% increase and representing 98.31% of the total export turnover of this category
The United States, China, the EU, Hong Kong, ASEAN, and Korea are still main importers, accounting for more than 84% of the country's total export turnover of these commodities Particularly, the United States leads the pack, followed closely by China with export turnover of 11.88 billion USD
The electronics industry holds a vital role in the national economy, and a strong spillover impact on other industries It serves as a gauge of every country's economic and technological development in the world Recognizing its importance, both domestic and foreign investors are increasingly channeling investments into this sector Leading global electronic corporations such as Samsung, LG, Foxconn, Fukang Technology, and LG Display Hai Phong have established production bases for technological electronic products in Vietnam, in order to meet higher demands Despite the anticipated growth in Vietnam's exports of this product group in 2022, Vietnamese export businesses may encounter the risk of dwindling orders due to the global downturn in the computer and components market, which shows no signs of recovery
Regarding imports, the proportion of imported machinery, equipment, components, and especially semiconductor chips or microchips, tends to increase (from about 36.8% in the 2011-2015 period to 44.6% in the 2011-2015 period) This, as a result, has facilitated Vietnam's access to advanced technology, upgraded technological levels, improved the quality and added value of exported goods, contributing to the overall efficiency of export activities
Trade and industrial policy implications to improve environmental
- On the Vietnamese’s government perspective:
First, it's crucial for pertinent Ministries and State management bodies to collaborate closely in crafting a roadmap to improve environmental policies In particular, focus on the key contents of completing legal documents to implement the Law on Environmental Protection 2020, so that the new provisions of the law can come into practice, and consider amending Change relevant laws to create uniformity and avoid conflicts and overlaps in legal documents, such as the Land Law, Mineral Law and Biodiversity Law Integrate strategies on sustainable environmental protection, resource management, and response to climate change into a content and task in the country's socio-economic development strategies Regular review and augmentation of the program content are necessary to ensure optimal efficiency in promoting the export of environmentally friendly high technology
Second, enhancing the effectiveness of environmental law dissemination can raise greater awareness of environmental protection during socio-economic development among state agencies, businesses, and other entities Promoting the involvement of socio-political organizations, unions, and residential communities in managing, implementing, and monitoring environmental protection measures
Third, the government must persist in refining the legal framework and institutional structure, issuing clear and transparent regulations and legal documents pertaining to the export of high-tech products that adhere to environmental sustainability standards Concurrently, policies should be formulated to aid domestic enterprises in investing in science and technology for production, improving productivity to create products with competitive prices, and reducing reliance on imported raw materials
Fourth, there is a need to facilitate the reorganization of export items towards leveraging the benefits of the green and knowledge-based economies, thereby enhancing the value of exported commodities Establishing high-tech hubs to draw foreign investment from multinational corporations is essential to narrowing the technology disparity with regional counterparts Developing the science and technology market is crucial to granting enterprises access and boosting the liquidity of investment capital for products research and development Implementing a mechanism to incentivize all entities and individuals across economic sectors to invest in science and technology development is imperative
Fifth, continuing to simplify import and export procedures State officials should undergo continuous training to enhance their professional qualifications while upholding clean political ethics, integrity, and a strong sense of responsibility towards their duties Intensified inspection efforts and efficient management of administrative procedures by officials are essential to minimize errors, simplify cumbersome processes, and combat corruption as well as bureaucracy
Finally, encouraging the importation of machinery, equipment, high technology, essential raw materials, and fuels to serve domestic manufacturing industries and facilitate exports Prioritizing the importation of machinery, equipment, high technology, supplies, raw materials, and basic materials that are either unavailable domestically or insufficient to meet production demands Strengthening management and quality control of imported goods through the application of non-tariff measures, technical trade barriers, and efficient administrative and customs protocols
- On the side of enterprises producing high-tech products:
First, it's imperative for businesses to strictly comply with environmental regulations and policies established by national governments Bolstering corporate social responsibility, particularly regarding community and environmental protection, while preventing corruption and embezzlement Moreover, creating favorable employment conditions for workers is essential
Second, businesses should incorporate green practices into the production of technology-intensive goods Those without a green development strategy should promptly formulate one to promote sustainable growth For companies already equipped with strategies for environmentally-friendly high-tech product development, it's crucial to regularly assess their effectiveness and make necessary adjustments to ensure alignment with practical outcomes
Third, businesses should leverage preferential policies and advantageous tax
& fee conditions provided by regional trade agreements to enhance service quality, upgrade facilities, and create a competitive edge
Fourth, businesses need to proactively apply high technology and digital transformation methods across production, distribution, and consumption stages to fully utilize the potential of online commerce for exporting technological products Moreover, maintaining online connectivity and information transmission to partners is essential to promptly adapt to changes and mitigate risks associated with short and long-term commercial agreements, ensuring the attainment of export goals
Fifth, focus on creating the creative thinking skills of business leaders and promoting green awareness among officials and employees within the organization Invest in the professional development of human resources Build a roadmap and systematic training program, including opportunities for employees to study and work abroad to enhance their skills and expertise
Lastly, companies exporting technology-intensive goods should collaborate and support each other to develop together By cooperating and sharing experiences, businesses can learn from each other, and enhance their implementation of green strategies for better efficiency
Drawing on previous empirical research, this thesis systematically examines the theoretical underpinnings of environmental quality and its impact on the export of high-technology products The essay delves into the correlation between environmental performance (expressed through the EPI index) and the export value of advanced technology products Utilizing multidimensional fixed effects regression estimation and robustness testing with a two-stages least square IV model, the author analyzes data from 67 countries across seven geographical regions The findings reveal that low levels of environmental sustainability can hinder the export of merchandise with high-technology content Consequently, the thesis proposes several policy implications aimed at assisting the government and Vietnamese authorities in formulating regulations and strategies to promote the export of greener technology-intensive products, aligning with future sustainable development objectives
However, due to limited research time and many shortcomings in knowledge, this thesis cannot avoid limitations and potential errors Initially, the difference in the number of countries observations across different study areas could influence the outcomes of the model Besides, only a group of subcomponents from the synthesized environmental performance index is used, which is air quality, limits the comprehensiveness of the analysis These limitations will be new research directions for the author's further expansion To conclude, the author welcomes feedback and thorough evaluation from teachers and the Science Council to better complete the thesis
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