RESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENT

Objectives 1 Evaluate the current and future status of WS in the VGTB river basin under the influence of CC and basin development activities BDAs through the WS Assessment Framework.. ReRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENTRESEARCH ON ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND BASIN DEVELOPMENT

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION

AND TRAINING

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

This thesis is conducted at Thuyloi University

Supervisor 1: Acco Prof Dr Nguyen Mai Dang

Supervisor 2: Prof Dr Le Dinh Thanh

External examiner 1: Prof Dr Huynh Thi Lan Huong, Hanoi University of Natural Resouces and Environment (HUNRE)

External examiner 2: Acco Prof Dr Trinh Quang Toan, Viet Nam Academy for Water Resources (VAWR)

External examiner 3: Acco Prof Dr Hoang Thanh Tung, Thuyloi University (TLU)

The thesis will be defensed at the Room 5 Building K1, Thuyloi University,

175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, on 08:30 February 28th 2024

Thesis could be found at:

- Vietnam National Library;

- Thuyloi University Library

INTRODUCTION

1 Needs of the study

Water security (WS) is currently a global issue that affects almost all sectors of economic and social development, particularly the well-being of people worldwide Like many countries in the region and in the world, Vietnam is facing numerous challenges related to the management and exploitation of water resources The current reality shows that the population growth, socio-economic development, unsustainable water exploitation and the increasingly evident impacts of climate change (CC) have led to the depletion and exhaustion of water resources In line with this reality, the exploitation of WS

in the Vu Gia - Thu Bon river basin (VGTB) has recently generated various issues and significantly influenced the socio-economic development of localities The impact of natural disasters and development activities in the basin (BDAs) such as floods, droughts, salt infiltration, mineral exploitation, deforestation, development of hydropower, urbanization, and productive activities (agriculture, industry, services, etc.) have greatly affected on ensuring water supply for water-consuming sectors in the basin

The reality highlights the need for comprehensive assessments of WS assurance levels, the status of water exploitation and use This, in turn, requires reasonable water resource management solutions to ensure sustainable development goals in the basin Previous research projects have mainly focused

on water balance calculations, the study of precipitation and flooding trends, operational solutions for reservoir systems, etc However, most of these studies and projects have concentrated on solving individual issues without addressing the integrated and systematic dimensions of the basin There have been limited studies on policy management and administration, especially regarding WS issues in the context of CC affecting the VGTB river system, which has not received adequate attention and still requires extensive and scientific research Based on the above analysis, it can be asserted that researching and evaluating the status and extent of WS in the VGTB river basin is crucial This research can provide valuable information for decision-makers to make informed decisions, issue warnings about WS and plan strategies for the most sustainable development and management of WS in the basin

2 Objectives

1) Evaluate the current and future status of WS in the VGTB river basin under the influence of CC and basin development activities (BDAs) through the WS Assessment Framework

2) Based on the assessment results of WS status, formulate solutions to ensure

WS under current and future conditions

3 Research subject and scope

1) Research subject: The research object of the thesis is the WS status of the river basin, encompassing its intrinsic elements such as water resource factors, environment, the impact of CC and BDAs

2) Scope of the study:

 Spatial Scope: The entire VGTB river basin, including areas within Quang Nam Province and Da Nang City

 Temporal Scope: Assess the WS status of the basin at the current time and in the future corresponding to the CC scenarios in 2050 (mid-century) based on economic and social development scenarios, as well as CC scenarios for Quang Nam Province and Da Nang City

4 Research Questions and Defense Points

of the basin

5 Approach and Research Methods

5.1 Approach

 Systemic Approach: Evaluate WS of the basin from the source to the mouth, including external influences (natural factors, disasters) and internal influences within the basin (human activities for socio-economic development)

 Holistic Approach: Examine the interactions between water sources and the population living in the basin, as well as the impact of natural phenomena on human water resource utilization and vice versa

5.2 Research Methods

The thesis selectively incorporates research findings from domestic and international sources, utilizing both traditional and modern methods, including surveys, interviews, data collection, statistical analysis, information synthesis, mathematical modeling, GIS, and expert methods

6 Scientific and Practical Significances

 Scientific Significances: Contribute to refining WS assessment methods,

providing a scientific basis for constructing a WS assessment framework tailored to the specific characteristics of the VGTB river basin This framework considers the contribution weights of individual component indices, ensuring a reliable and context-appropriate WS assessment

Practical Significances: The research outcomes will serve as a valuable reference material for teaching, management, operation, and alerting activities related to ensuring WS in the VGTB river basin

7 Structure of the Thesis

In addition to the introduction, conclusion, and appendices, the thesis is structured into three chapters:

Chapter 1: An overview of WS research, analysis of limitations in current studies, identification of research gaps, leading to the research problem

Chapter 2: Development of a WS Assessment Framework suitable for natural conditions, economic characteristics linked to CC, and BDAs

Chapter 3: Assessment of the current WS status of the basin, considering the impacts of CC, and future BDAs, proposing and directing solutions to ensure the WS level of the basin

CHAPTER 1: LITERATURE REVIEW OF WATER SECURITY

1.1 Review of water security research in the World

1.1.1 Definitions of Water Security

The term “Water Security” has been present in academic discourse since the 1990s, preceding its incorporation into national governance policies Over time,

it has evolved and been refined [8] Various definitions have been proposed and adopted, with the UN-Water committee suggesting, “Water security is the ability of a community to sustainably access water resources in both quantity and quality, meeting acceptable standards to maintain livelihoods, satisfy needs, and develop socio-economic growth It involves resilience to pollution and water-related disasters, preserving ecosystems in a politically stable and peaceful environment” [16] This comprehensive definition considers various dimensions related to the assessment of the object's status and has been widely used in research [31, 38, 32, 42, 40, 24]

1.1.2 Perspectives on Water Security

Before the year of 2000, most water security assessments focused on the basic

“Water - Human” relationship`, emphasizing water resources for human needs Presently, research adopts a more dynamic and holistic approach, viewing water security as a complex issue involving the interaction between water and humans

1.1.3 Water Security Studies and Assessment Frameworks in the World

Water security studies in the World have made significant progress, varying in scale, research subjects, and approaches Notable studies include: Global-scale studies [23] (2016), [24] (2023); Regional-scale studies like the “Asian Water Development Outlook (AWDO)” reports released in 2007 [25], 2013 [26], 2016 [17], and 2020 [3]; National-scale studies [27] (2019); Basin-scale studies [28] (2015), [29] (2018); Urban-scale studies [32] (2020); Studies assessing water security concerning the impacts of CC [33] (2012)

These studies suggest two main categories of assessment frameworks: (1) those considering household water use experiences and their impact on human health, and (2) those evaluating the quantity or potential of freshwater sources to meet human needs [34], representing the fundamental attributes of WS

1.2 Water Security Researches in Vietnam and the VGTB basin

To date, research on WS in Vietnam is limited, mostly addressing the general dimension of ensuring water supply for water users in terms of quantity and quality, without comprehensive examinations of the mutual impacts of factors contributing to WS Some notable studies include: “Water security assessment framework for Hanoi city” [35] (2016); “Water security assessment for Red River basin” [36] (2017); “Development of an index for assessing water security applicable to river basins in Vietnam, specifically the Ma River basin” [37] (2018); “Application of a multi-criteria analysis method to calculate the Water Security Index (WSI) for Tra Vinh city” [38] (2018); Research on Water security under impact of climate change - Application to Quang Ngai province [39] (2021) “Development of a water security assessment index for the Mekong Delta region” [40] (2022); “Assessment frameworks for water security

at different levels such as national, regional, river basin, and provincial/city levels” [41] (2023)

In the VGTB river basin, there is a lack of direct assessments of WS levels Most studies indirectly address various dimensions related to basin WS, such as water balance, water allocation, environmental flow, impact of rainfall and floods, drought, changes in vegetation cover, and the impact of hydropower operation on water supply at downstream locations

1.3 Current limitations of Water Security Researches and Research Directions in the Thesis

Studies on WS in Vietnam for river basins and urban areas such as the Red River basin [36], Ma River basin [37], Vietnam river basin in general [41], Mekong Delta [40], Quang Ngai province [39], Tra Vinh province [38], all have not mentioned the typical factors of the VGTB river basin For the VGTB river basin, consideration of the impacts of the hydropower system, the issue of harmonious distribution of water resources of the two large rivers in the basin, the need to ensure water supply downstream with the large tourist city, ensuring ecological environment for national parks, biosphere reserves, etc, is extremely important and necessary

Current studies on WS in Vietnam have not considered the weight of the influence of the component indices or have only used the equal weight method

(considering the component indices have the same influence in the index group) Studies also have not mentioned the impact of climate change (except study [42]) and the effects of development activities in the study basin

There have been no studies evaluating the situation as well as providing tools to quantify and evaluate the level of water security in the VGTB river basin

Figure 1.1 Research approach

In response to these research gaps, the thesis constructs a water security assessment framework with an appropriate set of evaluation indices tailored to the specific characteristics of the VGTB river basin The framework considers the

impacts of CC and the future development of the basin The general approach to achieving the research objectives is outlined in Figure 1.1

Conclusion of Chapter 1

The overall analysis indicates:

1)The use of frameworks to assess WS is a prevalent method in current research

2) Recent studies have adopted a holistic approach, considering the mutual interaction of “Water - Human - Ecosystem”, addressing risks, disasters, and

CC impacts instead of solely focusing on the “Water - Human” relationship or the physical balance between water supp ly and demand

3) In Vietnam, research on WS has not yet sufficiently considered the impacts

of CC (except for [42]), making the approach adopted in this thesis, which accounts for CC impacts and the effects of basin development activities, is appropriate

4) Current WS studies in Vietnam often neglect the influence weights of component indices, predominantly use equal weighting or unequal weighting method according to expert opinion, and have not adequately addressed the impacts of CC or the effects of basin development activities

CHAPTER 2: SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICAL FOUNDATION FOR WATER SECURITY ASSESSMENT IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN

2.1 Scientific Foundation, Practical Context, and Water Security Assessment Methodology

2.1.1 Water Security Assessment Perspectives

Based on an analysis of current assessment perspectives, the thesis adopts the UN-Water definition of WS as the foundation for selecting assessment variables

to construct a water security assessment framework tailored to the realities of the VGTB river basin The thesis also considers compliance with the criteria of the global sustainable development goal for water (SDG6) and the WS approach outlined in AWDO reports

2.1.2 Principles of Index Selection for Constructing the Water Security

Assessment Framework

Building on the principles of environmental impact assessment index selection guidelines by OECD [53] and considering the specific conditions of the VGTB river basin, whether introducing new indices or inheriting existing ones, adherence to the following principles is crucial: (1) Selected dimensions, indicators, and variables must align with the conditions for ensuring water security according to the UN-Water definition, global sustainable development goals for water (SDG6), and the approach of AWDO reports; (2) The chosen indices must be clearly defined, relatively verifiable in terms of appropriateness, and not overly numerous; (3) They must be measurable; (4) Selected indices should be representative and suitable for the assessment objective; (5) They should have an intrinsic capability to depict trends in change due to socio-economic development and natural conditions in the future, focusing on factors influenced by CC and socio-economic development in the basin;

2.1.3 Methodology for Selection and Determination of the Assessment Indexes

Figure 2.1 Diagram of the PAM method

At present, most studies developing a Water Security Framework (WS) related to water resources and the environment often utilize the DPSIR method (Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response) A comprehensive analysis indicates

that the Process Analysis Method (PAM) [56] offers advantages by providing simple yet meaningful results (as shown in study [55]) This thesis chooses the PAM method to analyze the process, aiming to identify and select dimensions, indicators, and variables, as outlined in Figure 2.1 After establishing a preliminary set of criteria, the next step involves assessing their suitability following the SMART principles [57] to determine the final set of indices The principle of SMART criteria is illustrated in Figure 2.2 The steps in constructing the assessment framework using the PAM method are presented in Figure 2.3

2.1.4 Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) for Weighting Indexes

Based on the comprehensive analysis, current studies in Vietnam predominantly employ the method of equal weighting (considering factors to have equal influence on the level of Water Security) when determining the contributions of individual factors within a group

Figure 2.2 Diagram of SMART principle

This approach falls short of adequately representing the differing impacts among these component factors Presently, there are various methods for calculating weights applied in different fields, including the Entropy method, Iyengar-Sudarshan method, and the Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) by Thomas Saaty After careful consideration, this thesis opts for the AHP, a

Systematic Hierarchy Analysis, developed by Thomas Saaty [58] to calculate and determine the weights of the indexes

Figure 2.3 Flowchart of WSI Assessment framework

2.1.5 Method for Calculation of Water Security Index (WSI)

To assess the level of Water Security in both localities within the basin and the entire basin itself, the calculation involves determining the values of variables Once the values for the variable set are obtained, the normalization of these values into indices is carried out according to the proposed hierarchical scale This yields corresponding values for the Water Security Index (WSI) of each

variable Utilizing the calculated WSI values for variables, combined with weights assigned to each variable through the AHP method, one can determine the WSI values for indicators, dimensions, and, ultimately, the comprehensive WSI GIS techniques are employed to construct and overlay maps for each index layer, representing their spatial distribution

Figure 2.5 Flowchart of developing WSI maps

This results in hierarchical maps depicting the Water Security Index for various indices By overlaying these hierarchical maps, the overall Water Security Index map for the basin is generated In this thesis, 5 key dimensions related to