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CLIMATE PROCESSES, OBSERVATIONS AND PROJECTIONS 13 DYNAMITE — Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System 14 ENSEMBLES — Ensemble based Predictions of Climate Changes and th

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European Research Framework Programme

Research on Climate Change

Prepared for the Third World Climate Conference (WCC-3) and the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP-15)

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Adapting to and mitigating climate change are now recognised as major challenges for the world community Enough evidence have been gathered to justify policy action on climate change, but knowledge needs to progress further on the understanding of the climate system, on the evaluation of the impacts and on the identification and assessment of options for mitigation and adaptation This endeavour currently requires and will continue to necessitate sustained significant support to research activities on climate change at the EU level

The present publication has been prepared for the Third World Climate Conference (Geneva, September 2009) and the 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-15, Copenhagen, December 2009) It provides an overview of recently completed and ongoing climate research projects undertaken under the

6th and 7th Research Framework Programmes of the European Community EC-funded research projects selected for this publication contribute to the understanding of the climate system ranging from climate processes and their modelling, to the assessment of climate change impacts and the costs of response measures Projects supporting European research infrastructure and grants provided by the European Research Council (ERC) contributing to climate change research are also accounted for The diversity of activities reported confirms that climate change is an encompassing matter touching on nearly every dimension of our society

134 projects representing an overall budget of 543 million € from the European Community contribution are referred to in this publication These research activities on climate are complemented by other activities funded by the Framework Programme, notably in the areas

of energy and transport, which contribute to the identification and development of mitigation options through progress on energy efficiency, renewable energy and more environmentally friendly transport systems

As shown by the number of research institutions involved, the European Union research activities exhibit a strong international dimension structuring the European Research Area (ERA) and going well beyond European borders This catalogue aims to help researchers and other stakeholders know better the coverage of EC-funded research projects This information may enhance wider use of the results from those projects and potentially generate new innovative initiatives We believe that these projects will help answer key scientific and policy questions related to climate change, which is a prerequisite for sound action and securing people's support

José Manuel Silva Rodríguez

Director-General Directorate-General for Research

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD 1

DESCRIPTION OF FUNDING INSTRUMENTS 11

I CLIMATE PROCESSES, OBSERVATIONS AND PROJECTIONS 13

DYNAMITE — Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System 14

ENSEMBLES — Ensemble based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts 17

COMBINE — Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth system for better climate prediction and projection 22

IS-ENES — InfraStructure for the European Network for Earth System Modelling 25

AMMA — African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis 28

AMMA TTC — African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis — Extension 32

THOR — Thermohaline Overturning Circulation — at Risk 35

ATP — Arctic Tipping Points 37

IPY-CARE — Climate of the Arctic and its Role for Europe (CARE) — A European component of the International Polar Year 39

WATCH — Water and Global Change 42

PHYTOCHANGE — New Approaches to Assess the Responses of Phytoplankton to Global Change 45

ENHANCE — Enhancing the European Participation in Living with Climate Variability and Change: Understanding the Uncertainties and Managing the Risks 47

EMIS — An Intense Summer Monsoon in a Cool World, Climate and East Asian Monsoon during Interglacials 500,000 years ago and before 50

EPICA-MIS — New Paleoreconstructions from Antarctic Ice and Marine Records 52

PACEMAKER — Past Continental Climate Change: Temperatures from Marine and Lacustrine Archives 54

MATRICS — Modern Approaches to Temperature Reconstructions in Polar Ice Cores 56

ICEPROXY — Novel Lipid Biomarkers from Polar Ice: Climatic and Ecological Applications 58

MILLENNIUM — European Climate of the Last Millennium 60

SEARCH for DAMOCLES — Study of Environmental Arctic Change — Developing Arctic Modelling and Observing Capability for Long-term Environment Studies 64

DAMOCLES — Developing Arctic Modelling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term

Environmental Studies 67

DAMOCLES-TTC — Developing Arctic Modelling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies — Extension 72

ALOMAR EARI — Arctic Lidar Observatory for Middle Atmosphere Research enhanced Access to Research 75

ARCFAC V — The European Centre for Arctic Environmental Research 77

ERICON-AB — The European Polar Research Icebreaker Consortium Aurora Borealis 79

EURO ARGO — Global Ocean Observing Infrastructure 81

II GLOBAL CARBON AND NITROGEN CYCLES — GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 83

CARBOEUROPE — Assessment of the European Terrestrial Carbon Balance 84

CARBO-Extreme — The terrestrial Carbon cycle under Climate Variability and Extremes A Pan-European synthesis 89

CARBO-NORTH — Quantifying the Carbon Budget in Northern Russia: Past, Present and Future 91

CARBOAFRICA — Quantification, understanding and prediction of carbon cycle, and other GHG gases, in Sub-Saharian Africa 94

QUASOM — Quantifying and Modelling Pathways of Soil Organic Matter as affected by abiotic Factors, Microbial dynamics and transport processes 97

CARBO-OCEAN — Marine Carbon Sources and Sinks Assessment 99

GRACE — Genetic Record of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 103

ICOS — Integrated Carbon Observation System 104

IMECC — Infrastructure for Measurement of the European Carbon Cycle 108

INSEA — Integrated Sink Enhancement Assessment 110

NEU-CO 2 -III — Continuation of the “International Network Non-energy use and CO2 emissions (NEU-CO2)”, Phase III 112

PAN-AMAZONIA — Project for the Advancement of Networked Science in Amazonia 114

NITROEUROPE — The Nitrogen Cycle and its Influence on the European Greenhouse Gas Balance 116

SOGE-A — System for Observation of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe and Asia 120

III CLIMATE INTERACTIONS WITH STRATOSPHERIC OZONE 122

THE MAIN AIM QOS2004 — Quadrennial Ozone Symposium 2004 123

SCOUT-O3 — Stratosphere-Climate Links with Emphasis on the UTLS 124

SHIVA — Stratospheric ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere 128

RECONCILE — Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions 130

ATTICA — European assessment of the Transport Impacts on Climate Change and Ozone Depletion 131

HCFCWORKSHOPS — International Workshop on HCFC Alternatives and Intermediate Reduction Steps for Developing Countries 134

IV CLIMATE INTERACTIONS WITH ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CHANGE 136

ACCENT — Atmospheric Composition Change: A European Network 137

EUCAARI — European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions 142

ATMNUCLE — Atmospheric Nucleation: from Molecular to Global Scale 146

C8 — Consistent Computation of the Chemistry-Cloud Continuum and Climate Change in Cyprus 147

EUROHYDROS — A European Network for Atmospheric Hydrogen Observation and Studies 149

HYMN — Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, Budgets and Interactions with the Biosphere 152

MAP — Secondary Marine Aerosol Production from Natural Sources 154

OOMPH — Organics over the Ocean Modifying Particles in both Hemispheres 157

CITYZEN — megaCITY — Zoom for the Environment 159

MEGAPOLI — Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation 161

AIR4EU — Air Quality Assessment for Europe from Local to Continental 163

NATAIR — Improving and Applying Methods for the Calculation of Natural and Biogenic Emissions and Assessment of Impacts on Air Quality 165

GEOMON — Global Earth Observation and Monitoring 168

COPAL — Community heavy-payload long endurance instrumented aircraft for tropospheric research in environmental and geo-sciences 171

EARLINET ASOS — European Aerosol Research Lidar Network: Advanced Sustainable Observation System 174

EUFAR — European Facility for Airborne Research Lidar Network: Adavanced Sustainable Observation System 177

EUROCHAMP — Integration of European Simulation Chambers for Investigating Atmospheric Processes 180

EUSAAR — European Supersites for Atmospheric Aerosol Research 184

IAGOS — Integration of Routine Aircraft Measurements into a Global Observing System 187

IAGOS-ERI — In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System — European Research Infrastructure 189

LAPBIAT — Lapland Atmosphere-Biosphere Facility 191

STAR — Support for Tropical Atmospheric Research 192

V CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 194

Ice2sea — Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise 195

EPOCA — European Project on Ocean Acidification 197

ACQWA — Assessment of Climatic change and impacts on the Quantity and quality of Water 200

EURO-LIMPACS — Integrated Project to Evaluate the Impacts of Global Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems 202

GENESIS — Groundwater and Dependent Ecosystems: New Scientific Basis on Climate Change and Land-Use Impacts for the Update of the EU Groundwater Directive 205

HERMIONE — Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man’s Impact on European seas 207

INCREASE — An integrated network on climate change research activities on shrubland ecosystems 209

ESCAPE — European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects 211

MACROCLIMATE — Quantitative Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis of Global Climate Change and Inequality 213

QUANTIFY — Quantifying the Climate Impact of Global and European Transport Systems 214

QUANTIFY-TTC — Quantifying the Climate Impact of Global and EuropeanTransport System — Extension 217

CECILIA — Central and Eastern European Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment 219

CLAVIER — Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe 223

CIRCE — Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment 226

CIRCLE — Climate Impact Research Co-ordination for a Larger Europe 232

CLARIS — A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies 234

CLARIS — LPB — A Europe-South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies in La Plata Basin 236

CENSOR — Climate variability and el niño southern oscillation: implications for natural

coastal resources and management 238

BASIN — Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and Integration: Resolving the impact of climatic

processes on ecosystems of the North Atlantic Basin and shelf seas 240

RECLAIM — Resolving Climatic Impacts on fish stocks 242 ArcRisk — Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to

climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling 244

EDEN — Emerging diseases in a changing European environment 246 CLEAR — Climate change, Environmental contaminants and Reproductive health 249 ICEPURE — The impact of climatic and environmental factors on personal ultraviolet

radiation exposure and human health 251

CLIMATE FOR CULTURE — Damage Risk Assessment, macroeconomic Impact and

Mitigation for Sustainable Preservation of Cultural Heritage

in the Times of Climate Change 253

NOAHS ARK — Global Climate Change Impact on Built Heritage and Cultural Landscapes 255 WRECKPROTECT — Strategies for the Protection of shipwrecks in the Baltic Sea against

forthcoming attack by wood degrading marine borers A synthesis

and information project based on the effects of climatic changes 257

EUROPOLAR — European Polar Consortium: Strategic Coordination and Networking of

European Polar RTD Programmes 259

MESMA — Monitoring and Evaluation of Spatially Managed Areas 263

VI CLIMATE RELEVANT PROJECTS ON NATURAL HAZARDS AND EXTREME EVENTS 265

MOVE — Methods for the improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe 266 GAGOS — Assessing and Forward Planning of the Geodetic and Geohazard Observing

Systems for GMES Applications 268

NOVAC — Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change 269 CapHaz-Net — Social capacity building for natural hazards: Toward more resilient

SafeLand — Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change,

and risk management strategies 279

ENSURE — Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and

na-tech hazards 281

MICRODIS — Integrated health social & economic impacts of extreme events: evidence, methods & tools 283

IRASMOS — Integral Risk Management of Extremely Rapid Mass Mouvements 285

MICORE — Morphological Impacts and Coastal Risks induced by Extreme storm events 287

VII CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, MITIGATION AND POLICIES 289

ADAM — Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy 290

CCTAME — Climate Change — Terrestrial Adaption and Mitigation in Europe 294

ClimateCost — Full Costs of Climate Change 296

LONG-TERM RISKS — Evaluation and Management of Collective Long-Term Risks 298

MEECE — Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment 299

ADAGIO — Adaptation of agriculture in the European regions at Environmental risk under climate change 301

MOTIVE — Models for Adaptive Forest Management 303

NEWATER — New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty 305

ClimateWater — Bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies 308

MACIS — Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate change: Impacts on biodiversity 310

HighNoon — Adaptation to changing water resources availability in northern India with Himalayan glacier retreat and changing monsoon pattern 311

FUTURESOC — Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change 313

U4IA (Euphoria) — Emerging Urban Futures and Opportune Repertoires of Individual Adaptation 315

GAINS-ASIA — Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies 317

SERPEC-CC — Sectoral Emission Reduction Potentials and Economic Costs for Climate Change 319

REDD-ALERT — Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation through Alternative Landuses in Rainforests of the Tropics 321

PICCMAT — Policy Incentives for Climate Change Mitigation Agricultural Techniques 323

SAFEWIND — Forecast with emphasis to extreme weather situations for a secure large-scale wind power integration 325

GILDED — Governance, Infrastructure, Lifestyle Dynamics and Energy Demand: European Post-Carbon Communities 327

PACT — Pathways for Carbon Transitions 329

PLANETS — Probabilistic Long-Term Assessment of New Technology Scenarios 331 POEM — Policy Options to engage Emerging Asian economies in a post-Kyoto regime 334 TETRIS — Technology Transfer and Investment Risk in International Emissions Trading 336 TOCSIN — Technology-Oriented Cooperation and Strategies in India and China:

Reinforcing the EU dialogue with Developing Countries on Climate Change

Mitigation 339

ENCI-LowCarb — European Network engaging Civil Society in Low Carbon 341 IMPLICC — Implications and risks of engineering solar radiation to limit climate change 343 INDEX BY ACRONYM 345

Information on EC-funded research projects referred to in this publication is available on the CORDIS web site:

For FP7 projects: http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/projects_en.html For FP6 projects: http://cordis.europa.eu/fp6/projects.htm

Description of funding instruments

The research Framework Programmes promote the integration and strengthening of the European Research Area through the implementation of a set of funding instruments Brief descriptions of these instruments referred to in this publication for the 7th and 6th Framework Programmes are given below:

FP7 Funding Instruments (2007-2013)

Collaborative projects

Support for research projects carried out by consortia with participants from different countries, aiming at developing new knowledge, new technology, products, demonstration activities or common resources for research The size, scope and internal organisation of projects can vary from field to field and from topic to topic Projects can range from small

or medium-scale focused research actions to large-scale integrating projects for achieving

a defined objective Projects will also be targeted to special groups such as SMEs and other smaller actors

Networks of Excellence

Support for a Joint Programme of Activities implemented by a number of research organisations integrating their activities in a given field, carried out by research teams in the framework of longer term cooperation The implementation of this Joint Programme

of Activities will require a formal commitment from the organisations integrating part of their resources and their activities

Coordination and support actions

Support for activities aimed at coordinating or supporting research activities and policies (networking, exchanges, trans-national access to research infrastructures, studies, conferences, etc ) These actions may also be implemented by means other than calls for proposals

Support for ‘frontier’ research

Support for projects carried out by individual national or transnational research teams This scheme will be used to support investigator-driven ‘frontier’ research projects funded

in the framework of the European Research Council

Support for training and career development of researchers

Support for training and career development of researchers, mainly to be used for the implementation of the Marie Curie actions

Research for the benefit of specific groups (in particular SMEs)

Support for research projects where the bulk of the research and technological development

is carried out by universities, research centres or other legal entities, for the benefit of specific groups, in particular SMEs or associations of SMEs Efforts will be undertaken to mobilise additional financing from the EIB and other financial organisations

FP6 Funding Instruments (2003-2006)

Networks of excellence (NOE)

Multipartner projects aimed at strengthening excellence on a research topic by networking

the critical mass of resources and expertise This expertise is networked around a joint

programme of activities aimed primarily at creating a progressive and lasting integration

of the research activities of the network partners while, at the same time advancing

knowledge on the topic

Integrated Projects (IP)

Multipartner projects to support objective-driven research, where the primary deliverable

is knowledge for new products, processes, services etc They should bring together a

critical mass of resources to reach ambitious goals aimed either at increasing Europe’s

competitiveness or at addressing major societal needs

Specific Targeted Research Projects (STREP)

Multipartner research, demonstration or innovation projects whose purpose is to support

research, technological development and demonstration or innovation activities of a more

limited scope and ambition, particularly for smaller research actors and participants from

candidate countries

Co-ordination actions (CA)

Actions aiming to promote and support the networking and coordination of research and

innovation activities They will cover the definition, organisation and management of joint

or common initiatives as well organisation of conferences, meetings, the performance

of studies, exchanges of personnel, the exchange and dissemination of good practices,

setting up common information systems and expert groups

Specific Support Actions (SSA)

Single or multipartner activities intended to complement the implementation of FP6

and may be used to help in preparations for future Community research policy activities

Within the priority themes, they will support, conferences, seminars, studies and analyses,

working groups and expert groups, operational support and dissemination, information

and communication activities, or a combination of these

Note: specific funding instruments are used for research infrastructure projects

A detailed description of the financial instruments for the 6th Framework Programme is

provided on the Cordis web site:

ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp6/docs/annex_instruments.pdf

Nota Bene

Every care has been taken in the preparation of this synopsis and the information is provided in good faith

This synopsis is a compilation of abstracts of the projects Some abstracts were corrected to create a more

uniform presentation Nevertheless, the contents cannot be guaranteed to be accurate or complete, and

remains under the responsibility of the coordinators of these projects Neither the European Commission

nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission can be held responsible for the contents or for the use

which might be made of them In all cases where up-to-date information is sought regarding a particular

project, contact should be made with its coordinator

I CLIMATE PROCESSES, OBSERVATIONS AND PROJECTIONS

Climate Focused Project

DYNAMITE — Understanding the Dynamics

of the Coupled Climate System

CT — 003903

http://dynamite nersc no/

Funding instrument: Specific Targeted Research Project (STREP)

Contract starting date: 01/03/2005

EC Office: Environment Directorate

Abstract

Deeper understanding of the intrinsic variability and stability properties of the main climate

variability modes is needed to assess confidence in the detection, attribution and prediction

of global and regional climate change, to improve seasonal predictions, and to understand the

shortcomings of current prediction systems DYNAMITE will explore the fundamental dynamical

mechanisms of two of the most important modes of climate variability: the North Atlantic

Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) The project

will elucidate key theoretical and practical aspects of the NAO/AO and ENSO through analyses of

available observations, application of classical and new theory, and use of idealised and

state-of-the-art numerical models of the atmosphere, ocean, land-surface, sea-ice, marine biology, and the

coupled climate system Specifically, DYNAMITE will advance the understanding of strongly and

weakly coupled processes underlying the natural variability of ENSO and NAO/AO; it will evaluate

the representation of the coupled processes underlying ENSO and the NAO in state-of-the-art

models used to predict climate change; it will advance understanding of the response of ENSO

and NAO/AO to climate change; and it will assess the role of ocean biology in the variability of the

tropical coupled climate system, including ENSO DYNAMITE will be implemented by a partnership

of world class climate research institutions, including a candidate country and several SMEs All

of the results and findings gained in DYNAMITE will be transferred to the climate modelling

community both in and outside Europe by bi-annual electronic newsletters and a dedicated and

open DYNAMITE model workshop at the end of the project DYNAMITE will improve the European

capability to make predictions of the state of the climate system from seasons to centuries ahead,

thereby contributing to the competitiveness and sustainability of the European Union

Objectives

Progress in understanding the fundamental modes of the climate system, in particular the coupled

ocean-atmosphere system, is essential to improve the detection, attribution and prediction of

global and regional climate change DYNAMITE will explore the fundamental dynamics of, and

the similarities and differences between, two of the most important modes of climate variability:

the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The project will elucidate key theoretical and practical aspects of NAO/AO and ENSO through a coordinated, focussed and open effort based on analyses of available observations, application of classical and new theory, and use of idealised and state-of-the-art numerical atmosphere, ocean/sea ice, coupled atmosphere-ocean/sea ice and coupled atmosphere-ocean/sea ice-ecosystem General Circulation Models (GCMs)

DYNAMITE will advance understanding of the intrinsic characteristics of NAO/AO and ENSO, and also the response of these modes to enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases Based on this, the specific objectives of DYNAMITE are:

— To quantify strongly and weakly coupled processes underlying the natural variability of ENSO and NAO/AO;

— To evaluate the representation of the coupled processes underlying ENSO (wind stress, weather noise, phase synchronisation and locking, tropical scale interactions, wave activity) and the NAO (SST, snow cover, sea ice cover, troposphere/stratosphere coupling) in state-of-art models used to predict climate change;

— To identify the response of ENSO and NAO/AO to climate change;

— To quantify the role of ocean biology in the variability of the tropical coupled climate system, including ENSO

A central part of DYNAMITE is a set of co-ordinated model experiments Detailed protocols for experimental design, implementation and analysis have been defined with the aim to address:

— How the ocean responds to realistic and idealised NAO-forcing,

— How the atmosphere responds to realistic and idealised SST and sea ice anomalies,

— How the short and long term atmosphere-ocean coupling strength inluence ENSO,

— How NAO and ENSO may change as a result of global warming,

— How the marine biota may influence the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system,

— How NAO and ENSO are coupled

An open workshop will be held at the end of DYNAMITE Here all interested European and non-European climate research scientists and groups will be informed about the research, findings, results and knowledge obtained in DYNAMITE Special focus will be put on distributing information about the basic operation of NAO/OA and ENSO, and how climate models should

be constructed (particularly linked to model formulation and resoluttion) to improve climate scenario integrations, climate prediction experiments and regional downscaling

Partners

1 Stiftelsen Nansen Senter for Fjernmaaling Norway

3 Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation avancée en

5 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique France

6 Chinese Academy of Sciences — Institute of Atmospheric Physics China

7 Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften Germany

8 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Italy

9 Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie Romania

11 Bergenshalvoeens Kommunale Kraftselskap Raadgiving As Norway

12 Societa Generale di Ingegneria — S G I Spa di Rubano Italy

Climate Focused Project

ENSEMBLES — Ensemble based Predictions of

Climate Changes and their Impacts

EC contribution: 15 000 000 €Coordinating organisation: Met Office, Hadley Center

Exeter — UKCo-ordinator: Paul Van Der Linden (paul vanderlinden@metoffice gov uk)

EC Office: Environment Directorate

Abstract

Prediction of both natural climate variability and human impact on climate is inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in forecast initial conditions, representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors Hence, reliable estimates of climatic risk can only be made through ensemble integrations of Earth — System Models in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated For the first time ever, a common ensemble forecast system will be developed for use across a range of timescales (seasonal, decadal, and longer) and spatial scales (global, regional, and local) This model system will be used to construct integrated scenarios

of future climate change, including both non-intervention and stabilisation scenarios This will provide a basis for quantitative risk assessment of climate change and climate variability, with emphasis on changes in extremes, including changes in storminess and precipitation, and the severity and frequency of drought, and the effects of “surprises”, such as the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation Most importantly, the model system will be extensively validated Hind casts made by the model system for the 20th century will be compared against quality-controlled, high-resolution gridded datasets for Europe Probability forecasts made with the model system on the seasonal and decadal timescales will also be validated against existing data The exploitation

of the results will be maximised by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a wide range of applications In turn, feedbacks from these impact areas back to the climate system will also be addressed Thus ENSEMBLES will have a structuring effect on European research by bringing together an unprecedented spectrum of world-leading expertise This expertise will be mobilised to maintain and extend European pre-eminence in the provision of policy-relevant information on climate and climate change and its interactions with society

Objectives

The overall goal of ENSEMBLES is to maintain and extend European pre-eminence in the provision

of policy relevant information on climate and climate change and its interactions with society ENSEMBLES will achieve this by:

— Developing an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art, high

resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against

quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time,

an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal

and longer timescales;

— Quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological

and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System (including water resource, land use, and air

quality issues, and carbon cycle feedbacks);

— Maximising the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction

system to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water

resources, insurance and weather risk management

To meet the Project Goal the project is split into a number of scientific and technological

objectives with a number of operational goals The work in the project is conducted through 10

closely connected Research Themes (RTs), each of which has Major Milestones (MMs) which are

the means of assessing progress towards the project objectives and operational goals

ENSEMBLES will be a major step forward in climate and climate change science Over the next five

years the major progress in climate science is expected mainly to take place in six areas:

The production of probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal and longer timescales

through the use of ensembles

The integration of additional processes in climate models to produce true Earth System models

Higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed climate predictions and

better information on extreme events

Reduction of uncertainty in climate predictions through increased understanding of climate

processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of models and techniques

The increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse user

community

The increased availability of scientific knowledge within the scientific community and to

stakeholders, policymakers and the public

ENSEMBLES will make major scientific contributions in all these areas and, most importantly, will

ensure that these six strands are all taken forward in an integrated and co-ordinated way This will

be possible because ENSEMBLES encases each of these elements within a planned and actively

managed programme

All of the major groups in Europe, who would individually be involved in the six elements, are

participants in the project In numerous ways ENSEMBLES will extend the state of the art in

the prediction of climate change and its impacts at seasonal to decadal and longer timescales

Foremost in this will be the development of the first global, high resolution, fully comprehensive,

ensemble based, modelling system for the prediction of climate change and its impacts This will

confirm and maintain Europe’s position as the world leader in climate change prediction The

integrated system to be developed for this project will deal with issues related to:

— natural variability of climate in the context of a changing chemical environment,

— non-linearity in the response both at the global and regional scale,

— quantitative estimates of uncertainty guided by observations, relevant to policy makers This will require:

— Inclusion of the non-linear feedbacks between climate and the impacts of climate change (e g water resource management, changes in land use, energy needs) This requires a more integrated approach to the assessment of the impacts of climate change than has hitherto been undertaken within a sophisticated, state-of-the-art earth system model;

— Quantifying uncertainty in individual components of the earth system and in the interaction between individual components, through the use of (i) different model constructions and (ii) ensemble-based “perturbed physics” versions of each model The incorporation of “perturbed physics” techniques within the modelling framework allows for an exploration of uncertainties associated with the representation of individual processes (particularly relevant for those which cannot be resolved at the model grid-scale), and together with the multi-model approach will provide a much more complete estimate of uncertainty than has thus far been possible;

— Construction of an ensemble of earth system models to provide estimates of climate and other environmental change for the next 10 to 100 years Model diversity is a key essential for providing a level of confidence to European predictions of climate change;

— Derivation of an objective method of deriving probability distributions using ensembles of models, weighted according to the ability of an individual model to represent key aspects of observed climate Evaluation of model skill is an essential part of the process, which will involve the development of new methodologies for diagnosing key processes and phenomena in models and for confronting them with satellite and in situ observations;

— Using the probability distributions of the impacts of climate change from the integrated system (including water management, land use, air quality, carbon management and energy use) to determine the social and economic effects and provide a risk assessment for selected emissions scenarios (policies);

— Developing a comprehensive approach to the validation of climate change ensembles and the impacts assessments, which includes the exploitation of seasonal to decadal predictability studies, thereby providing for the first time a sound, quantitative measure of confidence in future scenarios

Thus, ENSEMBLES will begin to move the state of the art in climate prediction from a small number

of deterministic predictions with no quantitative assessment of relative confidence towards an end-to-end multi-model ensemble prediction system (quantitatively validated against recent past climates and against the ability to predict future climate at the seasonal to decadal timescales) which would be able to provide probabilistic estimates of future climate change and its impacts

on key sectors, at the European and global scales

Partners

2 Météo France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques France

3 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique France

4 Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut Denmark

5 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts UK

6 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Austria

7 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Italy

8 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut The Netherlands

10 Max Planck Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E V Germany

11 National Observatory of Athens Greece

12 Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut Sweden

17 Agenzia Regionale per la Prevenzione e l’Ambiente dell’Emilia-Romagna

Servizio Meteorologico Regionale’ Italy

18 Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Greece

19 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Australia

20 Centre Européen pour la Recherche et la Formation Avancée en Calcul France

21 Cesky Hydrometeorologicky Ustav Czech Rep

22 Cicero Senter for Klimaforskning Norway

24 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Italy

25 Univerzita Karlova V Praze Czech Rep

26 Danmarks Jordbrugsforskning Denmark

27 Universita degli Studi Di Firenze Italy

31 Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zuerich Switzerland

32 Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Italy

33 Fundación Para la Investigación del Clima Spain

35 Fachhochschule für Technik Stuttgart Germany

37 Gkss Forschungszentrum Geesthacht Gmbh Germany

38 Ustav Fyziky Atmosfery Av Cr Czech Rep

39 The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Italy

40 Institut Für Meereskunde an der Universität Germany

41 Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia Spain

42 The Trustees of Columbia University in New York City USA

43 Institut Universitaire Kurt Boesch Switzerland

45 Commission of the European Communities — Joint Research Centre Belgium

46 London School of Economics and Political Science UK

47 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine UK

50 Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Norway

51 Institutul National de Hidrologie si Gospodarire a Apelor Bucuresti Romania

52 Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie Romania

53 Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment

54 Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung E V Germany

55 Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu The Netherlands

56 Société de Mathématiques appliquées et de Sciences Humaines France

59 Université Catholique de Louvain Belgium

60 Universidad de Castilla la Mancha Spain

66 Université Joseph Fourier Grenoble 1 France

Climate Focused Project

COMBINE — Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth system

for better climate prediction and projection

CT — 226520

http://www combine-project eu/

Funding instrument: Collaborative Project (CP)

Contract starting date: 01/05/2009

EC Office: Environment Directorate

Abstract

The European integrating project COMBINE brings together research groups to advance Earth

system models (ESMs) for more accurate climate projections and for reduced uncertainty in

the prediction of climate and climate change in the next decades COMBINE will contribute to

better assessments of changes in the physical climate system and of their impacts in the societal

and economic system The proposed work will strengthen the scientific base for environmental

policies of the EU for the climate negotiations, and will provide input to the IPCC/AR5 process

COMBINE proposes to improve ESMs by including key physical and biogeochemical processes to

model more accurately the forcing mechanisms and the feedbacks determining the magnitude

of climate change in the 21st century For this purpose the project will incorporate carbon and

nitrogen cycle, aerosols coupled to cloud microphysics and chemistry, proper stratospheric

dynamics and increased resolution, ice sheets and permafrost in current Earth system models

COMBINE also proposes to improve initialisation techniques to make the best possible use of

observation based analyses of ocean and ice to benefit from the predictability of the climate

system in predictions of the climate of the next few decades Combining more realistic models

and skilful initialisation is expected to reduce the uncertainty in climate projections

Resulting effects will be investigated in the physical climate system and in impacts on water

availability and agriculture, globally and in 3 regions under the influence of different climate

feedback mechanisms Results from the comprehensive ESMs will be used in an integrated

assessment model to test the underlying assumptions in the scenarios, and hence to contribute

to improved scenarios COMBINE will make use of the experimental design and of the scenarios

proposed for IPCC AR5 Therefore the project will be able to contribute to the AR5, by its relevant

research and by the contribution of experiments to the IPCC data archives

The COMBINE project has the following major objectives:

— To improve Earth system models by incorporating additional processes and representing more Earth system parameters The processes selected for this project represent: C- and N-cycle; aerosols coupled with clouds and chemistry; stratospheric dynamics and increased resolution, and ice sheets, sea ice and permafrost for the cryosphere

— To improve initialisation and error correction schemes for decadal climate predictions

— To use the Earth system models for decadal climate prediction and climate projection experiments following the protocols of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for IPCC AR5 simulations

— To understand and quantify how single or combined new process components influence different climate feedbacks and the magnitude of projected climate change in the 21st century

— To understand how the initialisation by itself or initialisation combined with improved process components or improved resolution can reduce the uncertainty in decadal climate prediction

— To analyze projected climate change in three different climate regions: the Arctic, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Amazon basin; where different feedbacks are important To analyse effects of selected new components in each region

— To test if high spatial resolution has significant influence on strength of feedbacks

— Quantify the impacts in two sectors: water availability and agriculture, globally and within the regions, and analyze the effect of selected new components on these impacts

— Use Earth system models to find CO2 emissions that are compatible with representative concentration scenarios specified for IPCC AR5 climate projections, and use an integrated assessment model to revise the scenarios accordingly

— Contribute to IPCC AR5 by relevant research and by disseminating climate prediction and projection data to IPCC data archives

The research effort of COMBINE will result in several deliverables (cf section B1 3 4) Important waypoints are checked by the milestones listed in section B1 3 7 Deliverables and milestones will document the progress towards the major objectives listed above in the course of the project life time

Partners

3 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique France

4 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italy

5 Météo-France — Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques France

6 Het Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut The Netherlands

8 Danish Meteorological Institute Danemark

9 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast UK

10 Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich Switzerland

11 Finnish Meteorological Institute Finland

12 Planbureau voor de leefomgeving The Netherlands

13 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Sweden

14 Wageningen University & Research Centre The Netherlands

16 European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific

20 Technical University of Crete Greece

21 Cyprus Research and Educational Foundation Cyprus

22 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais Brazil

Climate Focused Project

IS-ENES — InfraStructure for the European Network for

Earth System Modelling

CT — 228203

http://www enes org/IS-ENES 429 0 html

Funding instrument: Collaborative Project (CP) —

/Cooperation and Support Action (CSA)Contract starting date: 01/03/2009

Duration: 48 monthsTotal project cost: 10 666 284 €

EC Contribution: 7 591 851 €Coordinating organisation: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)/Institut

National de Sciences de l’Univers (INSU)Paris — France

Co-ordinator: Sylvie Joussaume (sylvie joussaume@lsce ipsl fr)

EC Office: European Research Area: Research programmes and capacity

Directorate

Abstract

IS-ENES proposes to develop a virtual Earth System Modelling Resource Centre (vERC) integrating the European Earth system models (ESMs) and their hardware, software, and data environments The overarching goal of this e-infrastructure is to further integrate the European climate modelling community, to help the definition of a common future strategy, to ease the development of full ESMs, to foster the execution and exploitation of high-end simulations, and

to support the dissemination of model results and the interaction with the climate change impact community The vERC encompasses models, the tools to prepare, evaluate, run, store and exploit model simulations, the access to model results and to the European highperformance computing ecosystem — in particular the EU large infrastructures DEISA2 and PRACE The vERC proposed

by IS-ENES is based on generic ICT, Grid technology and subject-specific simulation codes and software environments The European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES) proposes IS-ENES This network gathers the European climate and Earth system modelling community working on understanding and prediction of future climate change This community is strongly involved in the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and provides the predictions on which EU mitigation and adaptation policies are elaborated IS-ENES combines expertise in Earth system modelling, in computational science, and in studies of climate change impacts ISENES aims to provide a service on models and model results both to modelling groups and to the users of model results, especially the impact community Joint research activities will improve the efficient use of high-performance computers, model evaluation tool sets, access to model results, and prototype climate services for the impact community Networking activities will increase the cohesion of the European ESM community and advance a coherent European Network for Earth System modelling

— Foster the integration of the European climate and Earth system modelling community

— Further integrate the European ESM community, through networking activities (=NA)

focusing on the development of the future ENES strategy, the exchange of expertise and the

development of training activities (NA1 and NA3)

— Develop a virtual Earth System Modelling Resource Centre (v E R C ), using ICT technologies to

integrate the different distributed facilities currently existing or developed during this project

(NA2)

— Foster the development of Earth System Models for the understanding of climate change

— Increase the services around ESMs, by enhancing model documentation and developing a

service on common tools and model components (NA3 and service activity SA1)

— Foster the joint development and common evaluation of the European ESMs through

networking activities and joint research activities on ESM software environment (i e the tools

to prepare, run, store, evaluate and exploit model simulations) and ESM components (NA2,

JRA1 and JRA3)

— Foster high-end simulations enabling to better understand and predict future climate

change

— Ensure an efficient access and execution of ESMs on high-performance computing facilities,

by developing a common strategy, by enhancing the interface with and access to the EU large

infrastructures DEISA2 and PRACE, by improving model performance on different computer

architectures (NA1 and JRA2)

— Foster the application of Earth system model simulations to better predict and understand

future climate change impacts

— Enhance the dissemination of model results, by enhancing the service around model results

following the INSPIRE EU directive and developing more efficient tools to access data (SA2

and JRA4)

— Enhance the interaction with decision makers and user communities, mainly concerned by

climate change impact studies, through service activity and joint research development on

data access as well as more adapted indicators This will help Europe prepare for adaptation

as recommended by the 2007 EU Green paper “Adapting to climate change in Europe” (NA1

and JRA5)

Partners

1 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique IPSL France

2 Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften Germany

3 Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul

4 Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmbH Germany

5 Finnish Meteorological Institute Finland

7 Academy of Athens — Centre for Atmospheric, Physics and

8 Science and Technology Facilities Council UK

9 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Italy

11 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut The Netherlands

12 Météo France — Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques France

13 Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut Sweden

14 NEC Laboratories Europe — IT Research Division UK

16 Barcelona Supercomputing Centre Spain

17 Wageningen Universiteit The Netherlands

18 Institutul National de Hidrologie si Gospodarire a Apelor Romania

19 Deutsches Zentrum Für Luft- und Raumfahrt in der Helmholtz

20 Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison USA

Climate Focused Project

AMMA — African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis

CT — 004089

http://www amma-eu org

Funding instrument: Integrated Project (IP)

Contract starting date: 01/01/2005

EC Office: Environment Directorate

Abstract

The dramatic change in the region of the West African monsoon (WAM) from wet conditions in

the 50s and 60s to much drier conditions from the 70s to the 90s represents one of the strongest

inter-decadal signals on the planet in the 20th century Marked inter-annual variations in recent

decades have resulted in extremely dry years with devastating environmental and socio-economic

impacts The abrupt decrease of water resources in the Sahel divided by two the cattle population

and some exportation cultures disappeared Vulnerability of West African societies to climate

variability is likely to increase in the next decades as demands on resources increase due to the

rapidly growing population The situation may be exacerbated by the effects of climate change,

land degradation caused by the growing population and water pollution

Motivated by the need to develop strategies to reduce the socioeconomic impacts of climate

variability and change in WAM we aim:

— To improve our ability to predict the WAM and its impacts on intra-seasonal to decadal

timescales,

— To improve our ability to predict the consequences of climate change on WAM variability and

its impacts

These objectives will be achieved in the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)

project by re-enforcing the regional environmental monitoring systems and conducting intensive

field campaigns This will lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms involved and in-fine

improve our models and their predictive skills The observational system will cover the regional

water cycle, the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, the land-surface and oceanic conditions

It will cover 3 time scales:

— a long term monitoring,

— an enhanced observing period of two years and

— a special observing periods over one rainy season In order to monitor the human dimension of

the West African monsoon variability crop yields, water resources and health will be monitored

with the same strategy

Based on the objectives and the state of environmental monitoring and forecasting today, the AMMA consortium has chosen five goals to focus the effort of all partners and to allow each one

to evaluate our progress and achievements during the course of the project:

1 Short to medium range weather forecastingThe intensive field campaign AMMA will provide the data needed to ascertain hypotheses on tropical convection, its interaction with the large scale dynamics and its role in the regional water cycle Within this project the process studies on convection will be integrated with our improved knowledge of land-surface processes, interactions with aerosols and chemistry in order

to be translated into improved parameterizations for the large scale models used in forecasting Kilometric resolution models able to explicitly represent the convection will be used Fine scale analyses integrating a maximum of data collected during the Special Observing Period (SOP) will

be performed through variational assimilation

2 Seasonal to climate forecastingThe long term monitoring of the water cycle put into place within AMMA will improve our understanding of the characteristics of the inter-annual rainfall variability This will provide leads

as to which of the slow components in the system have the strongest predictive skill and which of the processes need to be better understood Key to any significant progress will be an integrative approach which views the monsoon as an object built out of internal interactions but with strong external influences An improved conceptual view of the monsoon will help the statistical as well

as the dynamic seasonal forecasts and allow us to estimate error bars for the climate change studies The land surface data assimilation system will be improved over the AMMA region thanks

to observational effort This will allow the evaluation for the first time of the potential predictability

of rainfall associated with soil moisture, which is believed to be high Systematic observations of chemical composition over West Africa during AMMA will provide constraints on models, which will be used to assess the processing, export and impact of emissions from West Africa The strong meridional gradients of the vegetation types and soil moisture of West Africa lead to strong gradients in certain emissions, and small changes in synoptic, seasonal or interannual climate may have large effects on the emissions from West Africa Thus the interactions of the land surface and monsoon dynamics with the chemistry will be a critical part of this analysis

3 Food security managementAMMA will produce estimates of a range of direct and indirect effects of changes in WAM on food security to define the vulnerability context over the region and to improve the prediction of seasonal production to serve as input for Early Warning Systems The direct effects will include changes in yields of rain-fed crops and changes in water resources available for irrigated cultivation Indirect effects will evaluate changes in agricultural and livelihood strategies as well as land use Effects of, and adaptations to, climate change interact with a range of other development trends such as economic demographical evolutions AMMA will develop scenarios for such complex situations, as a basis for analysing the specific sensitivity to WAM changes for each of them, and will test their application in operational Early Warning Systems for food security supporting the decision making process

4 Environmental monitoringAMMA will implement a multi-scale and integrated monitoring network providing key parameters for multidisciplinary scientific investigation One of the issues is to determine future monitoring

strategies to be implemented in an operational mode Within the AMMA project we will upgrade

the radiosonde network and provide the personnel with the appropriate training to maintain them

over the long term The project will demonstrate the benefit for weather and climatic forecasting

of these enhancements in the upper air soundings to motivate their funding at international

level Some key catchments will be instrumented to demonstrate to the local authorities the value

of environmental monitoring for water resource management AMMA will also demonstrate the

impact of emissions at regional scales on local air quality AMMA aims to improve and to evaluate

satellite products which are critical for West Africa (precipitation is one of the key parameters)

AMMA will also provide the basis for a system of satellite-based environmental monitoring

procedures, focusing on crop and vegetation productivity, and hydrology

5 Training and education

AMMA will show that the African monsoon is a tropic of fundamental research which can mobilise

the best scientists in Europe This will entice African students and scientists to enter this field of

research This movement will be fostered by the organisation of summer schools and university

PhD programs locally to provide the interested students with access to the expertise they sought

abroad and allow the build up of a critical mass which will then enable a continuous scientific

activity on African environmental issues In gathering together African and European students

and scientists in a motivating project, AMMA will contribute to consolidate both the scientific

expertise and the long term collaboration at European and African scale

Partners

1 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique France

2 Institut de Recherche pour le Développement France

4 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt E V Germany

6 Natural Environment Research Council UK

8 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo France France

10 Université de Bourgogne: Dijon France

11 Université Paris XII — Val de Marne France

12 Université Paul Sabatier — Toulouse III France

13 Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique

15 Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh Germany

16 Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften Germany

17 Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Muenchen Germany

18 Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms — Universität Bonn Germany

20 The University of Liverpool UK

25 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Italy

26 Ente Per Le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente Italy

27 Università degli Studi di Perugia Italy

28 Universidad de Castilla — La Mancha Spain

29 Universidad Complutense de Madrid Spain

30 Universidad Politecnica de Cartagena Spain

31 Université Catholique de Louvain Belgium

32 European Centre for Medium — Range Weather Forecasts UK

33 Centre Regional de Formation et d’Application en Agrometeorologie

34 Centre de Recherche Médicale et Sanitaire Niger

35 Ecole Inter-Etats d’Ingénieurs de l’Equipement Rural Faso Burkina

36 African Centre for Meteorological Application for Development Niger

38 Ocean Scientific International UK

39 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) The Netherlands

40 Agence pour la Sécurité de la Navigation Aerienne en Afrique

41 Universität Karlsruhe (Technische Hochschule) Germany

42 Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar Senegal

43 Université de Ouagadougo Burkina-Faso

45 Université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey Niger

46 Université Abomey Calavi (Cotonou) Benin

47 Direction de la Météorologie du Mali Mali

48 Direction de la Météorologie du Niger Niger

49 Direction de la Météorologie du Sénégal Senegal

50 Direction de la Météorologie de Guinée Guinea

51 Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Ghana

53 Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles Senegal

54 Centre d’Etudes Régional pour l’Amélioration de l’adaptation

55 Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles Burkina-Faso

Climate Focused Project

AMMA TTC — African Monsoon Multidisciplinary

Analysis — Extension

CT — 045954

http://www amma-eu org

Funding instrument: Integrated Project (IP)

Contract starting date: 01/01/2007

EC Office: Environment Directorate

Abstract

The overarching purposes of AMMA-TTC are to:

— Assist in the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals in Africa and the

implementation of the EU Strategy for Africa, which includes action to counter the effects of

climate change and the development of local capabilities to generate reliable information on

the location, condition and evolution of environmental resources, food availability and crisis

situations;

— Add to the African participation and ownership of AMMA research activities, and strengthen the

linkages between European research institutions and the West African research community;

— Ensure that the further development of national expertise is maintained beyond the AMMA

project

To help meet these high level objectives, the specific objectives of AMMA-TTC are to:

— Identify short and longer term impacts that changes in the WAM are likely to have on agriculture

and land productivity, land use, water resources, health and food security;

— Investigate the options for adaptation to the above impacts;

— Improve the ability of operational centres to forecast seasonal variation in the WAM;

— Compile the results of this research and communicate them to the user communities

The overall strategy for the implementation of the extension of the project have been to define

a complementary partnership with universities, research institutions and operational centres

that constitute a long term knowledge base to feed expertise, methods and tools to operational

centres AMMA-results will be extended to include investigation of the impacts of changes and

variability of the West African Monsoon, and also options for adaptation to the variability and

changes AMMA-TTC will promote the multidisciplinary approach to WAM research, by integrating

geophysical research on biophysical processes with broader-based impacts AMMA-knowledge

will be disseminated to participating centers, allowing the services provided to decision makers

to be improved ”

Objectives

The AMMA project is providing underpinning science that will create new knowledge of the functioning of the West African Monsoon (WAM), the processes which drive its variability and how the timing and intensity of the monsoon may change in a future climate This extension, AMMA-TTC, will exploit that new knowledge for the benefit of those West African states in the Sahel-Sudan zone, which will be most affected by the impacts of climate change on the region AMMA-TTC will reinforce the existing interactions and partnerships between European and African researchers, but expand them to create a new, stronger synergy, which combines the latest European developments in WAM research with the insights gained from regional knowledge and understanding The African scientific community are best placed to transfer new AMMA knowledge to the policy and decision makers faced with the need to implement adaptive strategies; AMMA-TTC will empower them to do this

The overarching purpose of AMMA-TTC is to assist in the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals in Africa and the implementation of the EU Strategy for Africa, which includes

“action to counter the effects of climate change” and “the development of local capabilities

to generate reliable information on the location, condition and evolution of environmental resources, food availability and crisis situations ” The three ‘Rio-conventions’ on climate change, biological diversity and desertification deal with strongly interrelated issues, not least when seen

in a West African perspective Research taking its point of departure in the climate domain will have important implications for understanding the likely development pathways with respect to land degradation and ecosystem structure and functioning This calls for linking of geophysical and ecological research To help meet these high level objectives, the specific objectives of AMMA-TTC are:

— To identify short and longer term impacts that changes in the WAM are likely to have on agriculture and land productivity, land use, water resources, health and food security;

— To investigate the options for adaptation to the above impacts;

— To improve the ability of operational centres to forecast seasonal variation in the WAM;

— To compile the results of this research and communicate them to the user communities These objectives will be achieved through the following activities:

— Exploiting AMMA results to investigate the impacts of, and options for adaptation to, changes

— Promoting a multidisciplinary approach to WAM research, integrating geophysical research

on bio-physical processes with broader-based impacts;

— Providing regional and national operational centres with better tools and knowledge, allowing the services provided to decision makers to be improved;

— Ensuring that the further development of national expertise is maintained beyond the AMMA

project

To achieve its objectives AMMA-TTC will focus on a range of issues and research tasks Although

these issues are also addressed by AMMA, there is a new emphasis which extends the work from

basic geophysical research into processes, towards research aimed at understanding the impacts

of change in the WAM and the options for adaptations to those changes These issues thus require

translation of the geophysical research results of AMMA on the functioning and change of the

WAM into scenarios of climate change, defining the relevant impacts and adaptation strategies

to be studied

The research issues are:

— How can better seasonal forecasting be used to improve farmers’ strategies and decision

making?

— What are the climate change adaptation options and strategies available to farmers and

pastoralists?

— How should water resource management adapt to the impacts of hydrological change at the

river basin scale?

— What is the impact of climate variability on disease transmission and then the consequences

of climate change on the epidemiological patterns of malaria and rift valley fever in West

Africa?

— How can AMMA results be translated into improved seasonal forecasts of the WAM?

Partners

1 Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar Senegal

2 Université de Ouagadougo Burkina-Faso

4 Université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey Niger

5 Université Abomey Calavi (Cotonou) Benin

6 Direction de la Météorologie du Mali Mali

7 Direction de la Météorologie du Niger Niger

8 Direction de la Météorologie du Sénégal Senegal

9 Direction de la Météorologie de Guinée Guinea

10 Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Ghana

12 Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles Senegal

13 Centre d’Etudes Régional pour l’Amélioration de l’adaptation

14 Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles Burkina-Faso

Climate Focused Project

THOR — Thermohaline Overturning Circulation — at Risk

EC Contribution: 9 274 425 €Coordinating organisation: Institute of Oceanography — University of Hamburg

Hamburg — GermanyCo-ordinator: Detlef Quadfasel (detlef quadfase@zmaw de)

EC Office: Environment Directorate

Partners

1 University of Hamburg UHAM (coord ) Germany

2 Max-Planck Gesellschaft MPG-M Germany

3 British Meteorological Office Met O UK

4 Université Pierre et Marie Curie UPMCLOCEAN France

5 University of Bergen UiB Norway

6 The University of Reading UREAD UK

7 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF UK

8 Leibniz-Institute of Marine Science at the University of Kiel

9 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI The Netherlands

10 Danish Meteorological Institute DMI Denmark

11 Fiskirannsóknarstovan FFL Faroe Islands

12 Finnish Institute of Marine Research FIMR Finland

13 Marine Research Institute MRI Iceland

14 Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research NIOZ The Nerherlands

15 The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science CEFAS UK

16 Scottish Association for Marine ScienceSAMS UK

17 Natural Environment Research Council NERC UK

18 Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre NERSC Norway

19 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique CNRS France

20 Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique CEA France