invest in a two risky asset portfolio and risk free asset

Global growth forecast for 2022 of some ASEAN countries...4Figure 3.. As of December 2022, most internationalorganizations have adjusted global economic growth in 2022 compared to previo

Teacher: Associate Professor Vo Thi Thuy Anh

Class: 47K 15.1

Group 8 To Thi Thuy Hien

Phan Thi Thuy Duong Tran Thi Y Lan

Tran Thi Nhu Binh

-Da Nang, 1 1/ 2023 -

1.2 The domestic macrOeCOTIOITY: - 0 2211121112211 1211111112211 11112211111 5

2 Industry arnaÌyS1S: L2 2201020112011 1211 1511121111811 1811101111011 811101 này 8

2.1 Technology Industry - c1 221122111211 112111 2111 111101112 111011118 111tr Hku 8

3 FIRM ANALYSIS Q2 n1 1111111111111 1111111111 1110111 11T 1101111 111111111 tá HH 10

3.2 About FRU ae 11

II INVEST IN A TWO-RISKY-ASSET PORTFOLIO AND RISK-FREE ASSET .13

1 Daily rate of return of each stock and vn-index (Data covers from 01/01/2022-

2 The expected rate of return of the two stocks and the Vn-Index: 13

3 The covariance and correlation ofthe two stocKkS: ác nh HH re 14

4 The minimum variance frontier and pornt out the efficient frontier: 15

5 Allocate 100 million dong to the portfolio, with a risk-free rate of 7%: 16

Ill THE OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO FOR 'THE CLIENTS - 52222 17

1 The portfolio and the market portfolio (Vn-Index) 5 -cc c2 222cc csss+2 17

2 The chients are borrowers and the cllents are lenders: - -¿++:c++>+ss2 17

3 The maximum fee in percentage for the portfoÏio 5-5 S25 + 222 s+2 18

TABLE OF FIGURES

Figure 1 Global growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by international organizations .3

Figure 2 Global srowth forecast for 2022 of some ASEAN countrles 4

Figure 3 Vietnam's growth forecast by a number of international organizations 5

Figure 4 Vietnam's inflation rate 0 cccccccccesessseeseeeseeeececssesesesseesseeeeeetieessseeens 6

FIigure 5 Vietnam's benchmark Interesf raf€ - - 2222122112112 2115511312511 1 k2 6

Figure 6 Total ICT industry revenue in the period 2021 - 2025 522cc cccss°¿ 8

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In recent years, the number of investors

this number is likely to increase in the future This will be a good signal for the

corporate capital market On the other hand, many investors have suffered heavy

losses when investing in unsuitable stocks It seems that these investors do not

understand future returns and the risks that may be involved in investing in these

stocks

Therefore, in this report, our team decided to analyze to provide information

that helps investors make decisions easier and build optimal investment portfolio for

customers to bring the greatest benefits to customers

I], FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

1 Macroeconomic analysis

1.1 The global economy:

The outlook for the macroeconomics of the global economy is subject to a wide range of factors and can change over time As of December 2022, most international organizations have adjusted global economic growth in 2022 compared to previous forecasts The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains its global economic growth forecast at 3.2% in 2022 compared to July 2022 but reduces its growth forecast for 2023 by 0.2 percentage points , reaching 2.7% The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts that world economic growth in 2022 will reach 3.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the forecast in September 2022, and will slow down to 3.1% 2.2% in 2023 Fitch Ratings (FR) adjusted its 2022 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points compared

to the forecast in September 2022, reaching 2.6% before decreasing to 1.4% in 2023

1,0

0.5 0,0

countries, its lingering waves continue to disrupt economic activity, especially in China According to the IMF, the global growth forecast for 2022 will reach 3.2% (remaining the same as the forecast in July 2022), 0.4 percentage points lower than the forecast made in April 2022 and reaching 2.7% in 2023

Although the challenges remain like the epidemic or geopolitical instability, many forecasts that it would not last long, and generally, in the short or medium-term growth prospects of the international economies are likely to be still on track for

recovery

1.2 The domestic macroeconomy:

In Vietnam's Macroeconomic Update in December 2022, the WB said that both growth drivers, exports and domestic demand, are slowing down Vietnam's exports are affected by weak external demand Post-Covid consumption also seems to recover slowly In addition, tighter financial mobilization conditions and rising inflation may affect domestic demand shortly

Inflation reached 4.4% in November (compared to the same period) and reached 4.3% over the previous month, of which food prices and housing prices were the two main contributing factors Core inflation increased from 4.5% in October (compared to the same period) to 4.8% in November 2022 (compared to the same period)

Vietnam's currency appreciated slightly in November 2022, although the price increase of the dong was still the lowest compared to major currencies and currencies

of neighboring countries

Coordinating fiscal and monetary policies is an important condition to maintain price stability in the context of rising core inflation in the country A more prudent and prioritized spending strategy to ensure investment in human capital, green infrastructure, and climate adaptation will help increase the resilience and potential of the economy

Hình 6 Dự báo tâng trưởng nam 2022 của một số quóc gia ASEAN

a) GDP

Overview:

GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is estimated to increase by 4.14% over the same period in 2022, only higher than the growth rate of 0.34% in the second quarter of 2020 in the period 2011 - 2023 GDP growth in the first 6 months of 2023 reached 3.72%, only higher than the growth rate of 1.74% in the first 6 months of

Overview: According to General Statistics Office:

Average CPI in the fourth quarter of 2022 increased by 4.41% over the same period For the whole year 2022, CPI increased by 3.15% compared to 2021, reaching the target set by the National Assembly

Forecast: The World Bank (WB) forecasts that inflation will reach 4.4% in November (compared to the same period) and reach 4.3% over the previous month, of which food prices and housing prices are two main contributing factors Core inflation increased from 4.5% in October (compared to the same period) to 4.8% in November

2022 (compared to the same period)

In the Asian Development Outlook, inflation forecasts are revised down from 4.5% to 3.8% for 2023 and from 4.2% to 4.0% for 2024

Figure 4

c) Interest rate and monetary policy :

Interest rate: The benchmark interest rate in Vietnam was last recorded at 4.50 percent

6.50 %

4.00 % 3.50 3 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

Figure 5

Monetary policy:

The Government has formulated a socio-economic recovery and development plan (Decision No 11/NQ-CP of 30 January 2022)

The plan aims to:

- Revive and rapidly develop manufacturing and business activities

- Boost growth drivers, prioritize some key industries and sectors

- Achieve targets for 2021-2025: average GDP growth of 6.5-7%/ per year, low public debt targets At the warning line approved by the National (assembly Resolution No 23/2021/QH15, the urban unemployment rate is below 4%)

- Maintain macroeconomic stability and ensure a large balance in the medium and long term This shows that the government is creating many conditions for the recovery and development of enterprises This is a positive factor for investing in domestic companies

=> From the above analysis, our group found positive points in the domestic stock market Therefore, we decided to choose domestic stocks for our portfolio

d) Exchange rate:

In the first 6 months of 2023, the VND stabilized in the context of the State Bank continuously reducing operating interest rates and abundant foreign currency supply According to the National Bank, the VND to USD exchange rate fluctuates in

a narrow range, between 23,610 - 23,755 VND/l USD, up 0.4% compared to the end

of 2022 The USD index still maintains its strength when the FED gradually increases

at the end of the interest rate cycle

In the coming time, the FED will maintain interest rates at a high level and may tighten monetary policy further as difficult international developments continue to put pressure on exchange rates and the market domestic foreign currency

2, Industry analysis:

2.1 Technology industry

When the industrial revolution 4.0 was taking place strongly around the world, the development of the Information Technology industry is the "key" to change, contributing to the growth of the country in many fields

Information Communication Technology (ICT) has become one of the industries with significant contributions to the State budget This helps Vietnam transform itself into one of the leading countries in the production of hardware and electronics - telecommunications technology with the 2nd position in mobile phone products and the 10th position in electronic products Along with that, Vietnam also ranks 9th in software outsourcing

In 2021, total ICT industry revenue will reach 136.15 billion USD, growing about 9.20% over the same period in 2020 Of which, revenue mainly comes from the hardware and electronics industry, reaching 121 billion USD, accounting for 121 billion USD nearly 90% of total ICT industry revenue

The Ministry of Information and Communications forecasts that in the remaining period from 2022-2025, the ICT industry will maintain double-digit growth and achieve revenue from 155 billion USD to 240 billion USD

2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

Nguồn: Bộ Thông tin và Truyền thông

Figure 6 Total ICT industry revenue in the period 2021 - 2025

2.2, ICT retail industry

According to reports from many market research units, 2023 is predicted to be

a year of many difficulties and challenges for the ICT retail industry During the Covid-19 pandemic, people have stepped up their purchases of phones and computers

to work and study online, so now there is no need to replace them

In fact, the slowing global economic growth is also causing clear impacts on the domestic economy Businesses lack export orders, many places cut working hours, lay off workers, especially in the group of labor-intensive businesses such as textiles, garments, footwear, etc., causing people's income to decline

However, the growth rate of the retail industry is still recovering and continues

to be above the growth rate of GDP According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade

of Vietnam, by 2025, the added value of Vietnam's trade industry will contribute about 13.5% of GDP and total retail sales of goods and service revenue will increase about 9 - 9.5% each year until 2025 [1] [2]

Industry: Technology, Telecommunications, Investment and Education Company position:

+ FPT Corporation is a leading technology company in Vietnam and one of the largest ICT companies in Asia It is a pioneer in software development,

IT services, and digital transformation FPT Corporation has a strong presence in Vietnam and operates in over 25 countries worldwide

+ In the 4.0 revolution, FPT is a pioneering Vietnamese company in researching and developing new technologies in artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, mobile, FPT is also a pioneer enterprise accompanying the world's leading technology corporations to create the most advanced digital technology platforms such as GE (Predix), Siemens (MindSphere), Airbus (Skywise), Amazon AWS

+ FPT's position globally has been recognized and affirmed through a customer list of more than 700 large enterprises in the world, especially nearly 100 customers on the Fortune 500 list

+ With a pioneering orientation in researching and applying the latest technology trends, FPT will continue to be a leader in digital transformation for customers, bringing new technologies such as Al, Big Data, IoT solutions in all fields such as smart transportation, smart health, digital government, [3]

Financial ratios analysis [4]

Liquidity ratios (2022):

Cash ratio: 0.26 The index shows that the company does not have enough cash to pay short-term debts

Quick ratio: 1.18 With a level > 1, the business is in a safe zone to be able

to pay short-term debts

Short-term ratio: 1.26 The enterprise is paying debts are quite good

Profitability ratios + Net profit margin: 15%(2021 ), 14.75%( 2022 )

+ ROE: 21.67% (2021), 22.71 % (2022)

+ ROA: 9.09% (2021); 10.08 % (2022)

10

=> FPT company has created very good profits and always maintained its operating efficiency

c) Risk analysis

- Obsolescence Risk: Obsolescence risk is the risk that a company's operations and business model will become obsolete and lose its competition, especially in the technology industry This risk is extremely important, business enterprises may slip and collapse because they cannot keep up with their competitors The biggest risk of obsolescence is that someone might find a way to make a similar product for less

- Legal risks: Legal risks are related to the relationship between the government and the business Specifically, it is the risk that government policies restrict the operation of a company or industry Thereby adversely affecting the investor's stock holdings in that company or industry lawsuits, new regulations or standards, specific taxes or patent laws, intellectual property rights

- Competition risk: Great competition from domestic and international technology corporations Regarding software export, FPT Software has almost

no domestic competitors, but it faces great competition from technology corporations in India and China, which also have developed software outsourcing activities In terms of telecommunications, FPT has to compete for market share with two other big players, VNPT and Viettel Telecom

- Security Risks: These are the risks associated with information technological know-how and trade secrets may be disclosed or leaked

- In addition, there are many other types of risks such as disaster risk, relationship risk, communication risk, and risk in information technology application

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