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Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development CARD Project Progress Report 050/04VIE: Improvement of export and domestic markets for Vietnamese fruit through improved post-harvest and su

Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development

CARD Project Progress Report

050/04VIE: Improvement of export and domestic markets for Vietnamese fruit through improved post-harvest and supply chain management

MS8: FIFTH SIX MONTHLY REPORT

January 2008

Table of Contents

1 Institute Information 1

2 Project Abstract 3

3 Executive Summary 3

4 Introduction & Background 4

5 Progress to Date 5

Implementation Highlights 5

Smallholder Benefits 11

Capacity Building 13

Publicity 15

Project Management 16

6 Report on Cross-Cutting Issues 17

Environment 17

Gender and Social Issues 18

7 Implementation & Sustainability Issues 20

Issues and Constraints 20

Options 21

Sustainability 22

8 Next Critical Steps 23

9 Conclusion 23

10 Statutory Declaration Error! Bookmark not defined

1 Institute Information

markets for Vietnamese fruit through improved post-harvest and supply chain management

Engineering and Post-Harvest Technology (SIAEP)

Industries and Fisheries (DPI & F)

Dr Peter Hofman

Mr Brett Tucker

Mr Roland Holmes

Ms Marlo Rankin

2007

Contact Officer(s)

In Australia: Team Leader

Organisation Queensland Department of

Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI & F)

Email: bob.nissen@dpi.qld.gov.au

In Australia: Administrative contact

Position: Senior Planning Officer

(Emerging Technologies)

Organisation Queensland Department

of Primary Industries and

Email: michelle.robbins@dpi.qld.gov.au

Fisheries (DPI & F)

In Viet Nam

Organisation Southern Sub-Institute of

Agricultural Engineering and Harvest Technology (SIAEP)

2 Project Abstract

The fruit industry in Vietnam has a great potential and plays an important role in agricultural production In 2003, Vietnam exported US$43 million of high value fruit to high-income countries and imported US$14 million of fruit and vegetables Vietnam is experiencing difficulties in competing with other Asian nations in export markets and its own domestic market, especially with China and Thailand This suggests that Vietnam’s horticultural industries require substantial development to be globally competitive Vietnamese consumers are demanding safer and higher quality fruit This project has identified key pre-and post-harvest technology gaps that reduce product quality, safety and consistency Targeted training programs are focusing on the total supply chain and are providing benefits by helping to implement quality management systems and GAP systems at the village level, providing greater employment for the farming community This project embraces the five CARD strategies for rural development; and in particular; strategies to increase production and competitiveness of agricultural systems; reduce poverty and vulnerability, and increase stakeholder participation whilst ensuring sustainability

In January 2008 a meeting held with Metro Cash and Carry, Le Thi Minh Trang, Quality Assurance Manager and Stephane Maurin, Divisional Manager–Fresh Food to set up new supply chains for Vietnamese’s farmer cooperatives Talks focused on setting up trial shipments of Cat Hoa Loc mango from 2 cooperative in the Tien Giang Province to Metro Cash and Carry in Ho Chi Minh City

Further economic studies were carried out on the production of high quality, high value Cat Hoa Loc mango fruit for speciality markets in HCMC by SOFRI Staff This study found that fruit bagging during the May to August period could significantly increase incomes by 27% lifting socio-economic standings of farmers

4 Introduction & Background

Fruit and Vegetable crops are highly lucrative compared to staple crops Horticultural produce has high value-added and income generation potential when compared to livestock and grain production Horticulture is highly attractive especially for small scale farmers, and has a comparative advantage, particularly where land holdings are small, labour is abundant and markets reasonably accessible (Weinberger and Lumpkin, 2006) This situation is particularly true in Mekong Delta and Central South Cost Province of Khanh Hoa, Viet Nam

Ford et al., (2003), suggested the competitiveness of Vietnamese fruit industries were failing due to poor, unstable product quality, no quality standards, poor post harvest technologies and pre-harvest practices, lack of group co-operative marketing structures and little information about supply chains, prices and customers needs

This project is addressing these constraints by engaging with key Vietnamese stakeholders from research institutes (SIAEP and SOFRI) and local farmers in the mango and pomelo industries in Southern Viet Nam This project has taken account of the total supply chain network and focused on where significant benefits are to be gained in the pre- harvest, post-harvest and marketing sectors

The objectives of the project are:

• Improved pre-harvest technologies to produce high quality mango (integrated pest management, integrated crop management, fruit fly control, maturity indices, reduced pesticide residues, better environmental and human health etc)

• Improved mango and pomelo post-harvest technologies (eg cool chain management, packaging, post-harvest dipping, ethylene ripening, waxing, washing and wetting agents, quality assurance)

• Improved quality standards and quality assurance programs for mango and pomelo The approach and methodologies developed for these crops through this project will

be applied to other fruits and vegetables

• Mapping of current supply chains to domestic and selected export markets, with particular emphasis on determining consumer preferences and needs, and reporting results back to farmers

• Provide a better understanding and possible improvements of the supply chain by Viet Namese fruit industries for mango and pomelo

This project will fill capacity gaps and reduce major weaknesses in pre-and post-harvest technologies improving product quality consistency and supply chain management and planning Highly specialised targeted training programs appropriate for institutions and industry stakeholders will be provided

At the local village and district level, cluster development of farmer/grower groups should ensure better on-farm prices This will increase power to these farmers which will benefit all members of the supply chain (intermediaries to retailers) rather than the present power brokers in the chain Farm incomes will therefore increase and result in better standard of living for rural families In addition, if quality management systems are implemented at the village and district level through more appropriate fruit quality standards, packaging and grading systems, increase returns should result creating greater employment The flow on

effects of this will benefit the poor in the rural areas, and specifically help provide more jobs for rural women

5 Progress to Date

Implementation Highlights

Implementation highlights of CARD Project activities

Training in GAP and IPM/IDM

The strategic plans developed as part of this CARD Project for mango and pomelo are now being implemented by SIAEP and SOFRI team members These activities align with the proposed project activities 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12 and 13 and project milestones 4, 7, 9 and 10

Top 5 Priorities for the Mango Strategic Plan:- Listing in Order of Importance for Mango Industry

1 Improve production process (e.g follow GAP)

2 Improve the linkages between farmers – traders – customers, scientists and government also need to be involved

3 Assessable market information for export and domestic markets

4 Improve packing and storing procedures/Need technical support to improve storing, packing and packaging material

5 Government to help with planning and development for specialised fruit growing area

Top 5 Priorities for the Pomelo Strategic Plan:- Listing in Order of Importance for Mango Industry

1 Supporting techniques from seedling–farming-harvesting (Guidance for GAP)

2 Advice/counsel on standards/specifications of products

3 Intensively farming and production areas

This training focused on:

• the development of GAP including pest and disease management (IPM/IDM) for both mango and pomelo

• improving pre- and post-harvest farming techniques and technologies for mango and pomelo

• improving linkages between growers, traders, customers, scientists, extension agents and government

This training aligns with the strategic priorities for mango and pomelo:

• Priority one and two for mango

• Priority one, two, three, four and five for pomelo

CARD project capacity building (demonstration of skills obtained)

To document and test the competencies of SOFRI staff in applying supply chain analysis and methodologies and quality assurance procedures (CARD Project milestone 10), four members

of the CARD Project team from SOFRI and the Director of SOFRI attended the International Society for Horticultural Science, International Symposium on Supply Chain Management,

“Improving the performance of supply chains in the transitional economies, Responding to the demands of integrated value chains” held in Hanoi Vietnam from 23-27 September 2007 Several excellent papers were presented by SOFRI staff to an international audience One paper focused on analysis of supply chains using strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats analytical method for the tropical and subtropical fruit industry in Vietnam Another talk focused on the Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and how they related to the domestic and export market development for Vietnamese fruit which aligns with CARD project milestone 7 and 10 and activities 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13

SOFRI Teams member who attend the conference were:

o Dr Nguyen Minh Chau (Director of SOFRI)

o Nguyen Van Hoa

o Le Thi Thu Hong

o Tran Nguyen Lie Minh

o Ta minh Tuan

Mr Nissen also presented two papers to this conference One of Mr Nissen’s papers detailed the development of new processes for evaluation and implementing new improved supply chains operating in South-East Asia This paper aligns with milestone 4 and 7, methodology and analytical techniques and training material for supply chain analysis and development and key issues and options for improved supply chain management as well as the roles and responsibilities and implementation process to improve supply chain in South-East Asia (See Appendix A for a copy of this paper)

Development of new supply chains

In January 2008 a meeting held with Metro Cash and Carry, Le Thi Minh Trang, Quality Assurance Manager and Stephane Maurin, Divisional Manager–Fresh Food, focused on setting up trial shipments of Cat Hoa Loc mango from 2 cooperative in the Tien Giang Province to Metro Cash and Carry in Ho Chi Minh City Quality guides developed as part of this CARD project (Milestone 4) and now being finalised and will be used to assure product quality of the Cat Hoa Loc mango during these trial shipments to Metro

Four different packaging systems will be employed in these trial shipments and experiments These experiments will determine the most economically viable and appropriate packaging system for Cat Hoa Loc Mango in Southern Vietnam This aligns with CARD project activities 8, 9, 10 and 13 and with priority 4 and 3 of the mango strategic plan developed by this CARD Project

Farmer training schools and workshops conducted

September-October farmer training schools

Training in September–October 2007 was carried out by the Vietnamese staff of SIAEP and SOFRI institutes and Australia personnel Courses were conducted in My Tho, Tien Giang Province and at Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam for both mango and pomelo farmers Intensive farmer schools and training workshops were one day in length and structured as:

• Day one - pre-harvest training

• Introduce supply chain concept

o Analysis of the Vietnamese supply chains

• Pre harvest (based on GAP)

in developing improved post-harvest practices and new supply chains Workshops conducted

in September-October 2007 and January-February 2008 by Australian trainers were held at SIAEP and SOFRI training rooms as well as military training rooms in My Tho Whilst these workshops were specifically designed as farmer schools, using participatory action learning principles, trainers researchers and extension agents were in attendance (see Appendix B for farmer group discussion notes taken during farmer training schools and Appendix C for list of participants)

January-February 2008 farmer training schools

Training in January-February 2008 was carried out by the Australia personnel Courses were conducted at SOFRI, Tien Giang Province, Vietnam Rowland Holmes and Robert Nissen conducted a two day workshop for the trainer and farmer training school on mango pests and diseases

These training activities listed above align with project activities 6, 7, 11 and 12 and project milestones 7, 9 and the Strategic Plans for mango and pomelo developed by this CARD Project (see Appendix C for list of participants)

Development of new supply chains for mango and pomelo

In September-October 2007 and January-February 2008 further workshops were conducted and analysis of data collected for the development of quality guides in consultation with the supply chain participants for mango and pomelo In January-February 2008 an overview of the draft copy of the Cat Hoa Loc mango Quality Guide was shown and discussed with Metro Cash and Carry Le Thi Minh Trang, Quality Assurance Manager and Stephane Maurin, Divisional Manager–Fresh Food to determine their needs and input These activities align with CARD project Milestone 4 and activities 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13 and with focus on further development of “Metro” type supply chain as suggested by the CARD PMU in their MS6 appraisal report

Socio-economic analysis of supply chains

In September-October 2007 and January-February 2008 further workshops were conducted on gathering socio-economic data of mango and pomelo supply chain in the Mekong Delta of Southern Vietnam Analysis of data is continuing and further data collection and analysis is being undertaken by the Vietnamese institutes SIAEP, SOFRI and Australian personnel These activities align with CARD project activities 8, 9, 10, 12 and 13 and milestones 7, 9 and 10

Workshop evaluations

The ORID system was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the eight farmer training schools and workshops conducted in September-October 2007 and January-February 2008 Both Vietnamese farmers and SIAEP and SOFRI staff were surveyed at the completion of each workshop The workshops conducted were:

• Mango and pomelo orchard management

• Mango and pomelo pre-harvest management to optimise product quality

• Mango and pomelo post-Harvest management to optimise product quality

• Mango orchard management and IPM/IDM to optimise product quality

Analysis of the workshops for September-October 2007 using the ORID system showed on average that:-

• workshop length:- range was from 70% to 90% with an average of 83% of participants found that the workshops were of the right time length with the remaining 17% indicating that they were too short These participants indicated workshops should be between three to 5 days in length

• trainees understanding of concepts:- range was from 65% to 70% with an average of 68% of participants understood the concepts very well, with the remaining 32% understanding concepts well

• new information:- for the orchard management workshops, 85% of all participants indicated that information presented was new to them with the remaining 15% indicating most of the information was new to them For the pre-and post-harvest management workshops, 65% of all participants indicted that information presented was new to them with the remaining 35% indicating most of the information was new

to them

• usefulness of information provided:- range 75 to 86% with and average 79.5% of participants indicated that the information would be very usefull in working with other professionals and growers to develop new supply chains, whilst the remaining 20.5% indicated that all the information would be useful

• trainees use of materials:- range 90 to 95% with an average of 92% of participants indicated that training methods used and information provided would be used by them

• trainees confidence in using techniques and methodology:- range 90% to 100% with

an average of 95% of participants indicated that their confidence would improve with further training

• cultural barriers:- range 34% to 47% with an average of 40% of participants indicated that there may be some cultural barriers in implementing new methods, whilst 20% were unsure and 40% believed there were no barriers for post harvest workshops

• For orchard management and pre harvest workshops range 30% to 47% with an average of 50% of participants indicated that there may be some cultural barriers in implementing new methods, whilst 30% were unsure and 20% believed there were no barriers

• trainer’s knowledge:- 77% of participants believed that the trainers were very good whilst the remaining 23% of participants believed trainers were good

• fulfilling trainees expectations:- 77% of participants indicated that their personal expectations with the workshops and their needs were highly satisfied The remaining 23% had their expectation satisfied

Training manuals, workshop materials and information supplied as part of this CARD Project

CARD Project workshop manuals developed to date are:

1 Introduction to Food Supply/Value Chains

2 Developing Food Supply/Value Chains

3 Improving Export and Domestic Markets for Vietnamese Fruit through Improved Supply Chain Management

a Strategic Planning

b Mapping and Developing Supply Chains

c Analysing Supply Chains

d Determining Improvements and Developing new Supply Chains

e Developing Action Plans

f Evaluating and Monitoring Supply chains

4 Supply/Value Chain Analysis: Surveys and Interview techniques and questionnaires Design

5 Quality Flows: Monitoring Quality via Sequential Sampling of Mango and Pomelo down the length of the Supply/Value Chain

6 Developing New Improved Horticultural Supply Chains

a How to Develop a New Supply Chain

b Market Research and Segmentation

c Building and Marketing Strategy

d Supply Chain Development

i Getting The Product right

ii Building Effective Information and Communication Strategy iii Building and Effective Distribution and Logistics System

iv Building Effective Relationships

v Creating Shared Value

1 Monitoring Quality

2 Packaging

7 Mango and Citrus Orchard Design

a Orchard Layout

b Farm access and facilities

c Water courses and dams

i Fruit ripening and quality loss

ii Main causes of quality loss after harvest iii Post-harvest technology

1 Introduction to mango post-harvest physiology

2 Harvesting and field handling

3 Packhouse operations and practices

4 Ripening and storage

5 Transport for mango

6 Know your market

7 Causes and Solutions of post-harvest defects

9 Designing Training Workshops for Mango and Pomelo Farmers in Vietnam

10 Farm Economic Analysis Workbook

11 Mango and citrus orchard design workbook and training manual

12 Farmer workbook and training manual on citrus training and pruning

13 Trainer workbook and manual on citrus training and pruning

14 Citrus pests and diseases workbook and training manual

15 Using chemicals workbook and training manual

16 Mango pest management workbook and training manual

17 Optimising harvest quality in mangoes workbook and training manual provided to trainers

Manuals supplied to date are:

1 Mango Cultivation Handbook

2 Mango Pest Control Handbook

3 Mango Disease Handbook

4 Pomelo Handbook

5 Mango and Citrus Orchard Design

6 Mango Information Kit (DPI&F Agrilink Publication Translated into Vietnamese)

7 Citrus Information Kit (DPI&F Agrilink Publication)

8 Citrus Pests and Their Natural Enemies (DPI&F Publication)

9 The Good Bug Book (ABC Publication Book)

Workshop material developed by the Vietnamese personnel and used in these workshops were:-

• Mango cultivation handbook

• Mango disease control handbook

• Mango pest control handbook

• Farmer Leaflets and handouts on mango pest control

Milestone achievements

As per the CARD Project Management Unit agreed and approved adjusted milestones in the

1st six monthly report (Appendix A), this project has achieved all milestones on budget Whilst there has been some slippage in delivery of some milestones due to uncontrollable and unforseen events, this CARD project remains on track Milestones and achievement to date are:

• Milestone 1 June 2005 (Submitted and accepted)

o contract signed

• Milestone 2 January 2006 (Submitted and accepted)

o 1st six monthly report submitted and statutory declaration and training inputs highlighted

• Milestone 3 July 2006 (Submitted and accepted)

o 2nd Six monthly report submitted and statutory declaration and training inputs highlighted

• Milestone 4 January 2007 (Not submitted, quality guides are in the final stage of developed and consultation with supply chain participants will be undertaken)

o Methodology, analytical techniques and training material for supply chain analysis and development

o Supply Chain maps for mangos and pomelo

o Strategic Plan for mangos and pomelo

o Mango post-harvest training and physiology manual completed

o Quality assurance manuals for mango and pomelo - near final draft stage

• Milestone 5 January 2007 (Submitted and accepted)

o 3rd Six monthly report submitted and statutory declaration and training inputs highlighted

• Milestone 6 September 2007 (Submitted and accepted)

o 4th Six monthly report submitted and statutory declaration and training inputs highlighted

• Milestone 7 (not submitted as development of training aids suited to operating conditions and culture aspects in Vietnam are still continuing)

o Key issues and options for improved supply chain management of selected fruits (completed as part of the strategic planning process)

o Identification of roles, responsibilities and implementation timetables for

improved supply chains (Roles and responsibilities designated in action plans developed during this CARD project)

o Complete set of promotion material including: - (i) training aids for farmer training programs; (ii) promotional and awareness material

• Milestone 8

o 4th Six monthly report submitted and statutory declaration and training inputs highlighted

Smallholder Benefits

Improving on farm inputs

This CARD project has demonstrated that improved on farm practices (new orchard designs; pruning and training systems; IPM and IDM systems) will greatly improve the living standards of farmers via implementation of improved farming and supply chain practices Whilst many of these practices are a significant improvement on traditional practices they are only part of a sustainable GAP system

On farm socio-economic studies carried out by SOFRI and SIAEP staff showed that improvements via increased inputs and management practices significantly improve farmer’s returns in the Mekong Delta

Mango

Preliminary surveys of Xoai (Mango) cultivar “Cat Hoa Loc” farmers in the Hoa Hung Commune, Cai Be District, Tien giang Province in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam indicates that:-

• Growers with high levels of management practices and high input levels obtain a profit of VND 15,105,000 per 1000m2, 2.1 times greater than growers with mid level management practices and mid level inputs and 3.7 times greater than grower with low level management practices and inputs

• Mangoes are mainly sold at local markets It is recommended to improve income, farmers should develop market opportunities in HCMC and northern Vietnam

Pomelo

Preliminary surveys of Buoi (Pomelo) cultivar “Nan Roi” in the My Hoa Commune, Binh Minh District, Vinh Long Province in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam indicates that:-

• Growers with high levels of management practices and high input levels obtain a profit of VND 3,576,000 per 1000m2, 2.4 times greater than growers with mid level management practices and mid level inputs and 3.9 times greater than grower with low level management practices and inputs

• Pomelos are mainly sold at local markets It is recommended that farmers to improve income they should develop market opportunities in HCMC and northern Vietnam and look at ways of direct selling to the consumer

Economics benefits of producing high quality mango fruit

Further economic studies were carried out on the production of high quality, high value Cat Hoa Loc mango fruit for speciality markets in HCMC by SOFRI Staff Fruit were marketed through the traditional marketing channels to test if collectors and wholesalers were prepared

to pay a premium for higher quality fruit Studies were carried out during May to August

2007 using single tree plots in a randomised block design Fruit were bagged using a special fruit bag designed and manufactured in Taiwan

Bagged fruit were sprayed once with pesticides (before bagging), while non-bagged fruit were sprayed a further seven times This bagging method provides to consumers a chemical free, safe product An 87% reduction pesticides costs was achieved using fruit bagging Table 1 below show 10% to 20% increase in fruit quality achieved using fruit bags across all fruit grades Table 2 below, show the price received in VND/kg for each fruit grade for bagged and non-bagged fruit

Table1 Comparison of fruit grades, bagged fruit verses non-bagged fruit

Table 2 Comparison of prices per fruit grade for bagged fruit verses non-bagged fruit

(VND/kg)

Non-Fruit Bagging (VND/kg)

2 573 000 VND vs 1 824 800 VND Profit earned from one Cat Hoa Loc mango tree that was bagged was 2 341 800 VND compared to a non-bagged tree of Cat Hoa Loc 1 696 800 VND This study found that fruit bagging during the May to August period could significantly increase incomes by 27% lifting socio-economic standings Further analysis of this data is being undertaken by SOFRI, SIAEP and Australian personnel These activities align with CARD project activities 8, 9, 10, 12 and 13 and milestones 7, 9 and 10

Developing new chains

This CARD project through SIAEP and SOFRI staff are working with the various groups of the supply chain participants (farmers groups to consumers) in the mango and pomelo supply chains in Vietnam For example:- Three different supply chains will be evaluated these are:

o Traditional supply chain and traditional packaging

o New supply chain with new packaging systems

o New Cat Hoa Loc mango supply chian to Metro Cash and Carry

Two Cat Hoa Loc mango cooperatives will participate in trial shipments of high quality Cat Hoa Loc mango fruit to Metro Cash and Carry in HCMC Trials will be conducted in May-June 2008 and will include four different packaging systems for Extra Class and Class 1 Cat Hoa Loc mango fruit

Fruit is to be graded and packed according to the fruit quality guide developed as part of this project by farmers, collectors, wholesalers, SIAEP, SOFRI and Australian personnel Fruit are to be transported from the two cooperatives in Tien Gian Province using air-conditioned transport vehicles for trial shipment to Metro This is to emulate a cool chain system Fruit quality assessment will be made at each point of exchange along the supply chain by both SIAEP and SOFRI staff and feedback will be obtained from Metro staff on fruit quality

It is anticipated that farmers and cooperatives participating in these trial shipments will obtain benefits in terms of improved returns and market information thereby improving their socio-economic status These activities align with CARD project Milestone 4 and activities 8, 9,

10, 11, 12, and 13 and with focus on further development of “Metro” type supply chain as suggested by the CARD PMU in their MS6 appraisal report

Capacity Building

Training workshops processes

SIAEP and SOFRI staff members along with several key farmers and supply chain members participated in over eight workshops during September October 2007 and January-February

2008 These workshops involved “participatory action learning”, “farmer schools” and

“farmer training farmer” processes to develop solutions to improving pre-, post-harvest and supply chain management impacts on mango and pomelo fruit quality This consultative and participatory action learning approach is designed to empower the rural poor and supply chain participants in the decision making processes Processes employed allow this CARD project

to obtain solid support from a cross section from all supply chain participants Based on the agreed directions in the strategic and action plans for both the mango and pomelo, the CARD project participants (SIEAP, SOFRI staff and the mango and pomelo farmers) develop skills via workshops aligned to the CARD Project objectives

Mr Nissen conducted 15 training workshops during September-October 2007 and February 2008 and Mr Nissen and Mr Rowland Holmes conducted 2 training workshops in January-February 2008 in excess of 24 days This follows on from the 4 training workshops conducted by Mr Nissen and Ms Rankin in November-December 2006 for 15 days for trainers, farmers, collectors and wholesalers

January-Emphasis was placed on mango pest and diseases, infield fruit handling and post-harvest handling on mangoes This workshop was one of the three farmer training exercises to be conducted during this project trip by Australian team members This workshop layed the foundation for the Vietnamese trainers and farmers who will then conduct further training of the Vietnamese farmers in pre- and post-harvest handling of mango The information supplied and discussed in this workshop will be used to develop the Vietnamese farmers training workshops and manuals for improving the mango supply chains

Workshops for September-October were:-

• Introduction to supply chains

o Analysis of Vietnamese supply chains

• Pre-Harvest workshop for mango

o Orchard design

o Orchard pruning and training

o IPM Training

o IDM Training

• Post-harvest workshop mango

o Post harvest handling

ƒ Post harvest physiology

o Harvesting and picking

o Sorting and grading

o Packing

o Storing

o Food safety

• Developing quality assurance guides for mango and pomleo in Vietnam

• Developing socio-economic supply chain evaluations and analysis for Vietnam

• Development findings on new supply chains in Vietnam

o New supply chain developments

o Action plan review

o Sequential sampling and surveys

o Planning activities for the next 6 months

These 11 workshops were conducted on:

• 7th

February workshop on development of CARD project action plans

• Responsibilities for SIAEP and SOFRI Staff and areas of work for CARD project

Training manuals and PowerPoint presentations developed for workshops were:

• Australian Processes Used to Manage Fresh Product Quality and Food Safety

• Handling and Transporting of Fresh Produce along a Supply Chain in Australia to Maintain Produce Quality and Deliver a Safe Product To The Consumer

• Marketing and Focus Group Training Workshop

• Post-harvest physiology and handling of mango

• Designing workshop for mango and pomelo farmers in Vietnam

• Developing quality assurance guides for mango and pomleo in Vietnam

• Developing socio-economic supply chain evaluations and analysis for Vietnam

• Mango Disease Management

• Mango Pests and Disease Field Guide

• Mango Pest Management

• Mango Pest Management Workbook

• Optimising harvest quality in mangoes workbook and training manual provided to trainers

Director Nguyen Duy Duc and SIAEP staff organised and conducted an “ASEAN Training course on Post-harvest Technology on Vegetables and Fruits” in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from 13-26th January 2008 This training course was well received by all the ASEAN nations’ participants from Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Lao PD R, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam Five SIAEP staff members provided talks and papers with a further four staff members providing laboratory demonstrations on measuring fruit and vegetable quality and measuring chemical residues and food safety issues

Publicity

Two publicity articles were developed with one article was included in the DPI&F annual report This article highlighted work conducted by DPI&F as part of this AusAID CARD funded project in South Vietnam Mr Nissen highlighted the AusAID CARD project through papers presented at the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (RAP) conference held in Chiang Mai Thailand and the International Society for Horticultural Science conference held in Hanoi, September 2007

Project Management

Linkages to other projects

During the January-February 2008 visit by Mr Nissen, Director Nguyen Duy Duc and Mr Nissen made direct linkages to between the CARD Project 050/04 VIE and the ASEAN Secretariat South-South Cooperation Project and A-J partnership Project Funded by MAFF Japan were formed Mr Nissen provided training and workshop material to the ASEAN training course that was developed for the CARD project to train SIAEP, SOFRI, farmers, collectors, wholesaler and retailers Previous CARD project training and material assisted SIAEP staff to conduct this ASEAN training course

Closer linkages with the joint RMIT and DPI&F project staff working on Quality Assurance Systems for ASEAN Fruit and Vegetables (QASAFV) is still being undertaken The QASAFV project is one of 10 projects initiated under the ASEAN Australian Development Cooperation Program (AADCP) Exchange of information has occurred on a regular basis The information exchanged covered areas such as:

• product quality concepts and quality assurance guidelines

• development of ASEAN GAP standards

• supply chain development and evaluation processes

• extension training methodologies for training trainers

Project activities management

During this 6 month period, project activities were intense in an effort to try to catch up on the project timeline Factors that interrupted the project activities timeline in the previous 6 months have caused some slippage in activities This was due to circumstances beyond Mr Nissens control Activities and training workshops to be conducted in early 2007 were deferred to July-August 2007 Personal health problems of Dr Hofman and Mr Nissen caused these delays as detailed in the previous six monthly report

Whilst there has been a significant amount of work conducted during this six month period and in particular training of farmers and SIAEP and SOFRI Staff, delays in obtaining samples due to crop production and product availability delays the development of the quality assurance guides and developing new supply chains

Due to these two factors mentioned above we therefore respectfully request the CARD Project Management Unit grant us an extension on this CARD project timeline by three months, so all activities, manuals and reports can be completed to the highest quality possible

No extra money is required but a three month extension be granted to accommodate for the delays caused by the Australian team health problems, failures in crops by Emu Exports Vietnam in Khanh Hoa province due to unforseen environmental conditions See appendix C for the suggested adjusted timeline

6 Report on Cross-Cutting Issues

• contamination of irrigation water via grey water and salt water incursions

• incorrect water management practices and irrigation methods (e.g disposal of grey water, and by product contamination of waterways, over watering, nutrient leaching and runoff)

Agricultural spray application, methodology and practices

Understanding how risk and its role in the farmers decision making process is critical to developing solutions to problems with agricultural spray applications Even though many farmers do not directly spelt out the levels of risk they face, risk does impact heavily on their decision making process

Chemical representatives provide technical information about a chemical’s effectiveness and appropriative use in Vietnam There are a large number of chemical products for farmers to use in Vietnam, adding to the confusion when using pesticides or fungicides to combat a particular problem Many chemical firms propagate such confusion to deliberately maintain market share This can lead to disaster as many farmers believe these chemicals to be the technical innovation that will get them out of a pest or disease management problem Poor management of a disease or pest through inappropriate use of chemicals may wipe out, within

a few years, the benefit of many years of new research into new management practices and systems

Many farmers develop their own individualistic management strategies instead of tackling the problem on a community or industry wide basis Avoidance strategies such as:

• supplement income with off farm activities

• transfer of risk to other people on farm or off farm such as a collector who purchases the crop

• individualistic strategies, such as “I will not spray my crop at this time as it will cost too much and the farmer next door does not spray at all, therefore why should I spray?”

Crop protection always triggers the emergence of different, and often conflicting, strategies among farmers and stakeholders This depends upon their strategies and their position in the commodity chain and their relationships with other farmers

Many researchers and extension agents have to learn to deal with an aggregate of individual behaviours and strategies This is extremely difficult and complex The researcher and/or extension agent has to combine all facets that farmers deal with, into one ideal strategy Then they have to select and assist champion farmers to put these new technologies and innovations

into practice and show how they improve upon the management practice or system traditionally used Sustainable IPM and IDM systems require that environmental and agro-ecological factors be translated into socio-economic objectives for farmers By translating these factors into socio-economic outcomes provides farmers with a method of assessing the risk of not carrying out a sustainable practice

Many farmers are conscious of environmental impacts and incorrect use of chemicals The harsh reality is; if they do not use chemicals, the fear of crop loss is very high and the impact

on family income overrides their concerns for the environment and safe chemical practices

At times there are only a few alternatives to calendar spray regimes but training in IPM and IDM systems will lead to a substantial change in agricultural chemical usage Implementation of good IPM/IDM systems and demonstrations are essential to achieve farmer acceptance of such a system The use of monitoring systems can substantially decrease chemical usage, increasing food safety and reducing the chemical impact on the environment Monitoring systems need to include:

• weather conditions

• sampling disease or pest prevalence in the orchard

• establishment of disease incidence levels related to crop loss and economic impacts

Orchard design and layout

This project found that many small Vietnamese orchards are poorly designed They have large trees which are not easily harvested or sprayed Orchards need to be redesigned to by reducing tree size to facilitate pest and disease control measures and light interception to produce high quality fruit If this is not done, then pest and disease problems will increase and control measures will become less effective, causing severe financial losses Poorly designed and maintained orchards can result in

• a build up of disease and pests

• disease and pest resistance to chemicals

• contamination of soil and waterways due to incorrect spray methods, rates and disposal of containers

Farmer training in mango and citrus orchard design and layout was carried out by this CARD Project in September-October 2007 using participatory action learning and farmer schools This highly successful workshop resulted in many farmers drawing orchard plans and discussion on how to change existing orchards

Gender and Social Issues

Social Issues

Education of farmers, collectors, transporters, wholesalers and retailers is critical to achieving improvements in the supply chain Significant improvements in food safety and GAP at the farmer level are needed if Vietnamese fruit supply chains are to achieve compliance with large domestic food retailers and export market quality standards

Many assume that increasing production and food safety levels at the small scale farmer level could be achieved through more efficient use of existing resources and technologies This assumption does not consider the small scale farmers’ perspective, and implies that many

small scale farmers are totally technology-backward, do not know how to implement new technologies and that they lack any aspirations or entrepreneurship to improve their way of life

It has been is widely accepted that technologies should be developed by research centres which are isolated from the commercial farming situation and then transferred to small scale farmers who in turn adopt it This fails to take into account the farmers’ priorities, constraints, availability to resources and their socio-economic aspirations The adoption of new technologies depends upon a building process between the champion farmers, collectors, wholesalers (participants) who want to improve and those assisting them (researchers and extension agents)

These assistants (researchers and extension agents) or technology providers must take into account many factors and analyse the farmers, collectors, and wholesalers priorities, and strategies, and conduct on site experiments with these participants Then develop recommendations through collective decision making processes that will take into account risks faced by each participant Imported research methods and technological packages from outside sources need to be tested and adapted to suit local conditions Also if funds are highly restricted, many farmers, collectors, wholesalers (participants) will simply turn to other crops that are easier to deal with rather than tackle the real underlying issues

Top down development models that are purely driven by technical questions do not get fully adopted because they are not related to local on-farm circumstances Many researchers and extension agents do not cooperate fully with farmers because the fear of failure or lack of funding to fully assess the situation, usually because of budget constraints Access to technical information and market data is critical to small scale farmer success Many farmers have access to broad general information, but specific information on market volumes and product quality is non existent In many instances, middlemen are the only the only source of market information Local middlemen in Vietnam are much more than salesman; they often burden small scale farmers with debts Any product that proves to be unsaleable, this debt is transferred back to the farmer from participants further down the chain Problems and unexpected costs encountered further up the supply chain are also transferred back to the farmer This is due to the belief that many fruit are in over supply situation, which is not the case in many instances Many chain participants bargain for a lower price and/or purchasing lower grade produce, then sell at a higher price, so greater profits can be made This removes any rewards for investors in these new farming systems and reduces small scale farmer entrepreneurial aspirations and faith in the marketing system

Factors that affect the adoption of new farming practices in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam are related to the entrepreneurial aspirations and capital investment by small, medium and large scale farmers, collectors, and wholesales Many farmers believe that new modern farming practices and management techniques that rely on (e.g inorganic fertilizers and synthetic fungicides and insecticides) are the only way to improve productivity and their socio-economic standing Many of theses new farming practices and management techniques come

at a significant economic, production and environmental cost to these investors Many investors (small scale farmers) do not understand that these costs will significantly deplete their available cash in the short term, unless product quality and net returns for produce marketed are greatly improved Many of the supply chain and marketing systems presently in place in the Mekong Delta and southern Vietnam do not provide adequate or enhanced returns for higher quality product, but this now starting to change

Consumers in Ho Chi Minh City are now starting to demand a safe, higher quality product, grown organically and no chemicals residues Therefore, many small scale farmers are trying

to put in place GAP, IPM and IDM, and organic fertilisers Most small scale farmers find implementing GAP, IPM and IDM systems are too complex, too demanding on their time, have limited availability to cash, traditional orchard designs and farming practices do not allow full implementation of these new techniques or farming practices and weather conditions are not favourable during some production periods This then leads to less than favourable outcomes for these investors and a loss in faith that these new practices will deliver benefits

This CARD project has tried to overcome these constraints by implementing a process which has is documented in Appendix A

Gender Issues

Previous reports indicated the need to incorporate, encourage and support the role of women

in the design and implementation of project objectives and outputs This project recognises the vital role women play at all levels of both mango and pomelo supply chains

Women dominate the post-harvest marketing and sale of the fruit in Vietnam They often represent the majority of collectors, wholesalers, traders and retailers in local and regional markets Greater than 85% of sellers are women

As previously indicated the Vietnamese project team is well represented with women They are playing a very important role in training farmers and conducting surveys and data collection in markets Both Director Nguyen Duy Duc (SIAEP) and Dr Nguyen Minh Chau and Dr Hong (SIAEP) are committed to the professional development of female staff SIAEP’s Director, Mr Nguyen Duy Duc, and SOFRI’s Director, Dr Nguyen Minh Chau should be congratulated for their foresight in having the faith, by providing the project with female staff who are committed to getting the job done

7 Implementation & Sustainability Issues

Issues and Constraints

Fruit quality and safety standards

As reported previously higher grade standards through the traditional supply chains will be very difficult to achieve Fruit grade standards for mango and pomelo are difficult to implement This is because most supply chain participants (farmers, collectors, transporters, and wholesalers are locked into the traditional marketing system The risks associated with change in practices are greate for these supply chain participants Therefore a system where

a gradual change occurs, in a step by step process, reducing the risk factors for each supply chain participant This CARD Project has developed preliminary quality standards but acceptance by all of the supply chain participants will have to be obtained by training collectors wholesalers, traders and retailers This project is now implementing some supply chain demonstrations in conjunction with two mango cooperatives in the Tien Giang Province It is anticipated in May 2008 that mango fruit will be graded according to the

quality guides and transported to high value markets (Metro) in HCMH and the economic benefits to each supply chain participant of these trials be documented by SOFRI and SIAEP staff

socio-Developing new supply chians

Training of researchers, extension agents and farmers on developing new supply chains is still continuing and will continue until this project is completed in the second half of 2008 The development of new supply chain will rest with supply chain champions who want to improve their performance, product quality and income Therefore the development of these new supply chains:-

• cannot be enforced by the researchers and extension agent

• researchers and extension agents can assist supply chain champions with technical advice and training workshops to ensure that they (the champions) obtain maximum benefits from the new supply chains

• business to business transactions have to be constructed and conducted by the chain champions themselves, but advice may be provided by researchers and extension agents and other business professionals

Many farmers and supply chain champions are risk adverse and will not change from traditional practices Many farmers and supply chain champions believe that before change can be undertaken, their families’ security, food and social welfare etc., has to be assured and significant income generated to allow investment in new ventures This CARD project agrees with family security reasons, but change will come from market and customer pressure and change may be imposed through this market pressure

The training and knowledge provided by this project will have a significant impact on how farmers and supply chain champions handle this change

GAP with emphasis on IPM/IDM issues

This CARD Project in September-October 2007 and January 2008 provided training in IPM/IDM for mango and pomelo It will be up to farmers to implement IPM/IDM practices Survey results form this CARD project showed that high income farmers had high inputs and management practices may assist other framers in their respective cooperatives Their experiences and results will provide inspiration for other farmers to improve practices

Options

Development of new supply chains based on grade standards for both pomelo and mango is still being undertaken via consultation with farmers, collectors, traders, wholesalers Grade standards and quality guides and are now in the final phase of development and implementation The development of a quality guide for pomelo and mango was to be finalised earlier but set backs in obtaining high quality photographs of problems and highly desirable quality product has been difficult The CARD Project team has now collected a good set of photographs and these manuals are now being finalised

These new supply chains being developed by this project will have to fight for their existence against older more established chains However, if these new chains can reduce losses or

have a higher of proportion of their fruit accepted as grade/class 1 by the wholesalers then this will improve their returns

Mango and pomelo farmers and supply chain participants wishing to access high value markets in HCMC will have to:-

• work together as members of an informal chain group

• agree to follow the same management practices

o pest and disease agrochemical programs to ensure a safe product

o harvesting practices (maturity index)

o ensure grade/quality standards

o use similar packaging to ensure protection of their brand and trade marks

The CARD project will continue to train supply chain participants on how to implement GAP principles (pre-and post- harvest), grade standards and develop their supply chains to high value markets in HCMC These participatory action learning farmer, collector, wholesaler, transporter and wholesaler schools/workshops will be on GAP, IPM, IDM, optimising harvest quality, packaging, stacking and handling to ensure a high quality product reaches the consumer in HCMC

A time extension of three months be granted by the CARD PMU to enable all activities to be completed to the highest possible standard and all reports and manuals be completed in both English and Vietnamese and presented to the CARD PMU

Sustainability

As reported, this project is addressing sustainability issues through

• “participatory action learning” (PAL), farmer schools and “farmer training framer” (FTF) process involving CARD project supply chain participants (grower/farmers, collectors, traders, wholesalers, exporters) section of champions and industry leaders

• train the trainer workshops of SIAEP and SOFRI project staff, who will have capability to expand methodologies and processes used in this project to other industries

• workshops that provide information on GAP, IPM and IDM principles and linking these to other previous CARD Projects such as the Dragon Fruit project and AADCP project and ASEAN Training workshops on Post-harvest Technologies

• providing background information on the benefits of health and safety, environmental and social impacts of implementing GAP, IPM and IDM methods in new pre- and post–harvest practices

• establishing supply chain maps for product, communication and monetary flows, infrastructure and skills audits

• undertaking process analysis to determine problems and obtain input from participants

on solution to problems encountered in the supply chains

• undertaking baseline surveys on quality and survey to assess improvements being implemented

• identifying and assisting farmers/collectors/wholesalers/traders and exporters and retailers implement new pre- and post-harvest practices

• assisting farmers/collectors/wholesalers/traders and exporters to develop new improved supply chians

If sustainability problems do arise, they are being addressed by the project through participatory action learning process, and this project is making good progress in addressing issues above One issue of concern and still highlighted very strongly by many farmers, involves financial assistance The project team members believe that some of these issues can

be addressed through development of grower financial training project and government assistance through special schemes set up to assist farmers to implement GAP principles

8 Next Critical Steps

These have been grouped under the following categories based on strategic plan and are as follows:

• Development and implement GAP, focussing initially on IPM and IDM systems will

be carried out in July 2008

• Improving applicability of farming techniques and technologies of harvesting, packing and transporting Training to be carried out in May 2008, July 2008

• Reducing post-harvest losses by establishing a demonstration of production, sorting, packing and transport systems to provide the quality required by Metro in HCMC will

be carried out in May 2008 These activities will depend entirely on the availability of high quality mango fruit from the two cooperatives in the Tein Giang Province in Mekong Delta It is also envisaged that in May 2008 farmer training workshops and exercises will take place at Emu Export Ltd operations, demonstrating improved practices which comply with GAP

• Develop new improved high value supply chains for farmer groups in HCMC These activities will depend upon the grower cooperatives and their ability to develop their supply chains SIAEP and SOFRI staff as part of this CARD project will facilitate and provide training in technical aspects of developing new high value chains but business to business dealings and practices will have to be handled by the cooperative business members These CARD project activities will take place in May 2008

• Improve linkages between farmers, traders, customers, scientists and government also need to be involved Through this CARD project providing training workshops to farmers and all supply chain participants, greater linkages between farmers, traders, customers, scientists and government will be formed Evidence of this is the CARD Project training of SIAEP and SOFRI staff and material supplied, which has assisted SIAEP in the delivery of training workshops for Metro in their joint project with GTZ and the Ministry of Commerce in Vietnam and ASEAN Training conducted by SIAEP

• Further strengthen linkages with ASEAN GAP project to assist Vietnamese farmers develop a standard for good agricultural practice during production, harvesting and post harvest handling of fruit and vegetables in the Asian Region Food safety modules, product quality and environmental management and worker health and safety material will be supplied by this project

9 Conclusion

This project is still receiving very good support from the Vietnamese Institutes, SIAEP Director Nguyen Duy Duc and SOFRI Director, Nguyen Min Chau Whilst there have been some delays due to unforseen personal issues the Australian staff involved in this project, it is hoped that all project activities and milestones will be on track SIAEP and SOFRI project

staff been enthusiastic about this project and committed to achieving project outcomes SIAEP and SOFRI have provided staff for implementation of the mango and pomelo action plans, strategic plans, and development of new improved supply chains that will ensure the objectives of the CARD project are met

Farmers, collectors, traders, wholesalers, exporters, all have shown a high level of commitment and significant progress has been made on documenting the current supply chains for mango and pomelo and excellent progress made on the implementation of the new improved supply chians The implementation of the strategic and action plans for mango and pomelo is progressing well

It is not possible in the short time of this project to achieve high accreditation levels, due to limited knowledge levels, but highly significant changes in pre-harvest and post-harvest aspects have occurred at the farmer level and Vietnamese institute levels during this project For example, SIAEP, conducting ASEAN Training on Post-harvest technologies for fruit and vegetables and SOFRI Staff presenting to an International audience on Vietnamese supply chain strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats and the implementation of GAP principles and the affects on Vietnamese’s domestic and international markets

The development of ASEAN GAP being undertaken by Quality Assurance Systems for ASEAN Fruit and Vegetables Project funded by the ASEAN Australian Development Cooperation Program will be utilised within this CARD project

Project Progress Against Proposed Objectives, Outputs, Activities And Inputs

Project Title:

Vietnamese Implementing Institution:

Narrative Information Required Performance

Measures

Assumptions Information Required

OBJECTIVES T he beneficiaries are mango and pomelo

supply chain members – farmers, traders, transporters, wholesalers, exporters, and consumers There are also indirect benefits

to Government Staff, through a better understanding of supply chain function, and through advanced technology transfer

Strengthening of cooperative relationships between SIAEP and relevant organisations

eg SOFRI, Vinafruit, Agriculture Departments of three provinces etc

Improved technical expertise through international linkages

Training will be provided to farmers, supply chain members and researchers, to improve quality of fruit for domestic and export consumption Post-harvest losses will be reduced from the current 30% level

Cluster formation will be facilitated, and benefits for other fruits and areas promoted.

Quality of mango and pomelo fruit is improved for domestic and export markets

Export of quality mangoes and pomelo becomes more likely through improved supply chain management

Better trained harvest staff able to deal with supply chain issues Increased understanding of whole of supply chain issues and increased ability to manage problems within the supply chain

post-Identification of key capacity weaknesses and gaps

Better trained harvest staff able to deal with supply chain issues Increased understanding of whole of supply

post-Vietnamese counterparts have limited understanding

of the concept of supply chain or value chain development Such as how to construct a value chain; how to analysis, and characterise product, information, monetary and product quality flows along the supply chain from the grower to the consumer.

Project objective, outputs and activates are highly relevant

Training will continue for the life of the project Increased understanding of the Vietnamese mango and pomelo supply chains product, information and monetary flows have been undertaken

Process analysis of mango and pomelo supply chain also undertaken Issues, problems and constraints are being address through solutions generated by participants in the CARD Project

Strategic plan and action plans developed for project and are being implemented

No adjustments or amendments required

Post-harvest mango physiology training conducted with researchers and extension agents.

chain issues and increased ability to manage problems within the supply chain

Identification of key capacity weaknesses and gaps.

OUTPUTS Horticulture strategic analysis confirming

selection of mango and pomelo as priority crops Industry analysis for mango and pomelo Export potential plan

Export readiness plan Industry marketing plan Vietnamese manuals on pre and post harvest technologies, supply chain management and industry planning

Trained specialists, capable of undertaking industry analysis and possess the practical ability

to identify problems areas in the supply chain

Ability to deliver knowledge in supply chain management and problem solving to enhance Vietnamese Fruit Industries

Greater cooperation, cohesiveness, improved practices along the supply chain providing an increased financial benefit by 20% to all participants for the small farmers, to the exporter

to the retailer

Increasing domestic sales and exports by 20%

and increased returns to small farmers due to improved supply chain procedures and better organisation

Increase in the number of the successful supply chains for fruit exported from Viet Nam

Increase village employment through fruit packing, grading, harvesting, which will provide increase income village workers

Increase the effectiveness of the fruit industry to deliver benefits to project participants

I nformation exists in various forms Vietnamese collaborators are

identifying, sourcing, and evaluating published material suitable for inclusion in this CARD Project

Vietnamese participants trained; Extension officers, Researchers, Farmers, Traders, Collectors (transporters), Exporters, Retailers

Improved fruit quality and consistency Reduced fruit losses Increased sales and revenues Improved food safety Participatory action learning approach which install ownership and cohesiveness

Export volumes, prices

Vietnamese counterparts have limited understanding

of the concept of supply chain or value chain development

Vietnamese supply chain operate as separate identities Very little marketing information is passed back down the chain on problems encountered

If new markets and new supply chain are developed and issues of access are solved, volumes and prices will increase to sustainable

Strategic and action plans developed Outlines of required reports developed and supplied to Vietnamese collaborators

Information gathering process undertaken and assessment of information will

be continually undertaken for the life of the project

April - May 2006 workshops 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 were conducted to providing initial training in supply chain analysis processes to identify problems, and management systems for supply chains

November –December workshops 2006 were conducted to develop new improved supply chians for mango and pomelo farmers in HCMC

Workshop held at SIAEP in November 2005 with stakeholders to explain project aims benefits to be gained, engage and stakeholders and obtain their cooperation for this project SOFRI has implemented a Information about fruit market publication

The Vietnamese industries are undertaking development of new value chains New markets are being assessed and development undertaken to ensuring they deliver “what the consumer wants”

As new supply chains become successful flow on benefits, such as employment will eventuate