Growth factors
Investment
1.1 Investment in the period 2016-2021 a Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016-2021 (Billions dong)
Year State Non – State Foreign-invested sector
Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016 -2021
State Non - S tate Foreign invested sector
Figure 1 The chart shows the volatility in investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016-2021 (Billions dong)
Overall, the state, non-state, and foreign-investedsectors of the entire society's total investment capital at present prices is modest but has experienced sustained growth from
By 2020, the Covid outbreak led to a 5.7% increase in realized social investment capital, reaching VND 2164.5 trillion, marking the lowest growth rate from 2011 to 2020 The non-state sector contributed VND 972.2 trillion, or 44.9%, with a growth of 3.1% The state sector accounted for VND 729 trillion, representing 33.7% of total capital and a significant increase of 14.5% from 2019 In contrast, the foreign direct investment sector saw a decline, reaching VND 463.3 trillion, or 21.4%, down by 1.3%.
In 2021, Vietnam's total realized investment capital reached VND 2,891.9 trillion, marking a 3.2% increase from the previous year The state capital accounted for VND 713.6 trillion, or 24.7% of the total, reflecting a 2.9% decline The non-state sector saw a rise to VND 1,720.2 trillion, representing 59.5% of the total and a 7.2% increase Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) amounted to VND 458.1 trillion, or 15.8%, with a decrease of 1.1% Despite being the lowest growth in years, these figures are considered a positive outcome amid the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically and globally.
The Covid pandemic significantly disrupted the economy, leading to delays in business and production operations while causing only minimal growth in investment capital Additionally, foreign direct investment projects licensed across various economic activities from 2016 to 2021 reflect these challenges.
Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply 3 13 20 15 20 24
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor 514 619 788 1140 722 507
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics vehicles and motorcycles
Total registered capital (Mil USD)
Manufacturing 16936.9 16437.6 19378 25196 14786.7 22500.7 Real estate activities 2355 3107.5 8253.3 3860.4 4976 3607.2 Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Macroeconomics 1 Đại học Kinh tế Quốc…
Go to course Ôn tập môn Kinh tế Vĩ mô trường đại học Kinh tế…
Trac nghiem vi mo - de thi kinh te vi mo
Trac nghiem vi mo chuong 3
Total registered capital of foreign direct investment projects licensed by kinds of economic activity in the period 2016-2021
Manufacturing Real estate activities Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
The chart illustrates the total registered capital of foreign direct investment projects approved in various sectors, including Manufacturing, Real Estate Activities, Electricity, Gas, Steam, and Air Conditioning Supply, as well as Wholesale and Retail Trade, and the Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles, during the period from 2016 to 2021.
From 2016 to 2021, foreign investors focused on 19 diverse industries, with the processing and manufacturing sector being the most attractive Notably, foreign direct investment also significantly targeted real estate, wholesale, retail, and power production and distribution sectors.
With a total registered capital of 115.2 billion USD, the manufacturing and processing industry was the sector that received the most interest from investors during this time.
With 5860 projects, this industry has the most investment projects overall With a total Đề thi kinh tế vĩ mô FTU
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics registered capital of 26.2 billion USD, real estate came in second The industries that get the most FDI are, generally speaking, those that deal with processing technology, real estate, electricity production, and distribution, etc.
1.2 Investment in the first 3 quarters of 2022 a Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the first 3 quarters of 2022
In the first nine months of 2022, Vietnam's investment at current prices is projected to reach VND 2,130.3 trillion, marking a 12.5% increase compared to the same period in 2017 This growth is largely driven by a strong recovery in the manufacturing sector Notably, foreign direct investment in Vietnam amounted to 15.4 billion USD, reflecting a 16.3% increase and representing the highest level recorded for the first nine months of any year since 2018.
In the third quarter of 2022, total investment at current prices by ownership type reached 833.8 trillion dong, marking an 18.1% increase compared to the same period last year This growth includes a 27.8% rise in state capital, an 11% increase in the non-state sector, which totaled 491.2 trillion dong, and a significant 34.5% boost in foreign direct investment, amounting to 126.1 trillion dong.
Recent data indicates significant improvements in production, business, and investment across various industries and regions, reflecting a positive recovery and growth trend To assist businesses in overcoming challenges and to foster a conducive environment for maintaining and expanding operations, the government is implementing support packages aimed at socio-economic recovery Additionally, foreign direct investment projects have been licensed across different economic activities in the first three quarters of 2022.
In the first nine months of 2022, Vietnam attracted approximately 15.43 billion USD in foreign direct investment, marking a 16.3% increase compared to the same period in 2017 This surge represents the highest level of foreign direct investment capital realized in the past five years within this timeframe Notably, the production and distribution sector for electricity, gas, hot water, steam, and air conditioning accounted for 1.15 billion USD of this investment.
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics accounting for 7.5% of the total realized foreign direct investment capital, while the processing and manufacturing industry reached USD 12.05 billion, accounting for 78.1%.
In the first nine months of 2022, there has been a notable improvement in foreign investment, with 1,355 new projects receiving investment registration certificates, reflecting an 11.8% increase compared to the previous period Additionally, 769 projects registered for adjustments in investment capital in 2021, marking a 13.4% rise.
Foreign investors are increasingly confident in Vietnam's business environment, perceiving it as a secure and attractive investment destination This trend continues as Vietnam implements new policies aimed at attracting investors and revitalizing the economy after nearly two years of restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
State budget and insurance
2.1 Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the period 2016-2021
Figure 3 The chart shows the total state budget revenue and expenditure as of December
31, 2021 and the years 2016,2017,2018,2019,2020 (Trillion VND)
From 2016 to 2019, total state budget revenue experienced consistent annual growth However, in 2020, the Covid pandemic significantly impacted revenue, resulting in a decrease of VND 43.2 trillion, or 2.8% In 2021, as the economy began to recover, total state budget revenue rebounded, increasing by VND 60.7 trillion, which is an 8.5% rise.
State budget expenditure in Vietnam has consistently increased over the years, with 2018 marking the highest rise in six years, totaling an increase of 153.4 trillion VND (19.3%) This growth in expenditure surpasses total revenue, resulting in a persistent state of overspending throughout the 2016-2021 period.
2.2 State budget deficit for the period 2016-2021
Figure 4 State budget deficit as of December 31, 2021 and the years 2016,2017,2018,2019
The state budget deficit has fluctuated from 2016 to 2021, consistently persisting without signs of improvement Notably, in 2020, the impact of Covid-19 led to increased expenditures on social security and healthcare, resulting in a significant overspending of 76.7 trillion VND.
The cyclical economic downturn, coupled with an unstable global security environment and the complexities of natural disasters, is driving an increased demand for defense and social order spending This situation necessitates higher state budget allocations to effectively address and mitigate the consequences of these challenges.
Unreasonable management and administration of the state budget lead to inadequate assessment and utilization of revenue sources Additionally, significant shortcomings in the allocation and use of the state budget result in losses and waste of financial resources.
2.3 Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the third quarter of 2022
Figure 5 Accumulation of state budget revenues and expenditures as of the third quarter of 2022
During the Ministry of Finance's regular press conference on September 29, officials reported that the total state budget revenue for the first nine months of 2022 reached an estimated 1,327.3 trillion VND, which is 94% of the projected estimate and represents a 22% increase compared to the same period in 2021 This data is crucial for the Ministry of Planning and Investment's economic forecasts.
2022 is expected to grow 7-7.5% State budget revenue is estimated to exceed the estimate.
In the opposite direction, the total state budget expenditure in 9 months reached 1,086.3 trillion VND, equaling 60.8% of the estimate, up 5.4% over the same period in
In 2021, the state budget expenditure for the first nine months was executed as planned, addressing the needs of socio-economic development, national defense, and security It ensured adequate funding for disaster recovery, epidemic response, and social security initiatives, while also supporting beneficiaries through salaries, pensions, and social allowances from the state budget.
Figure 6 Total insurance revenue by three sectors: Social insurance, health insurance, unemployment insurance in the period 2016-2021
Figure 7 Total insurance expenditures by three sectors: Social insurance, health insurance, unemployment insurance in the period 2016-2021
Social insurance boasts the highest number of participants, while unemployment insurance has the lowest Over the past six years, total insurance revenue has experienced significant fluctuations, rising by 53.1% to reach 97.4 trillion VND in 2017 However, this figure dropped by 41.8 trillion VND the following year Despite this setback, revenue steadily increased, culminating in a total of 433.1 trillion VND by 2021.
Total insurance spending grew at a steady rate from 2016-2021 and grew at a much higher rate in 2020 But then in 2021, this figure decreased significantly (16.7 %)
During the Covid period, there has been a significant rise in insurance purchases, prompting insurance companies to enhance their distribution methods and launch online products They have diversified premium collection channels and invested in technology to create a digital ecosystem, enabling customers to proactively access and engage with insurance services This shift presents a valuable opportunity for continued growth in the insurance market.
The total accumulated collection of Social Insurance, Health Insurance, andUnemployment Insurance by the end of September 2022 is estimated at nearly VND
308,000 billion, up 8.67% over the same period in 2021 The insurance market can be expected Insurance will continue to grow more than in 2021.
Agriculture, forestry, and seafood
Grain food production and rice production in 2016-2021
Grain food production Rice production m ilion t ons
Figure 8 Show grain food production and rice production in 2-16-2020
From 2016 to 2021, food crop production experienced significant fluctuations due to abnormal weather patterns leading to natural disasters such as storms, floods, and droughts Additionally, the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the export, import, and consumption chains of agricultural products.
However, there are still positive records such as the growth of food production in
2018 due to favorable weather conditions, the appearance of new high-quality rice
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics varieties, an increase of 1063.2 thousand tons compared to 2017 2021 also marked the recovery of grain agriculture, an increase of 975.8 thousand tons compared to 2020.
The winter-spring rice crop in 2022 is projected to yield 19.98 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 649 thousand tons from 2021 This decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in sown areas as land is repurposed for urbanization and more profitable perennial crops or aquaculture Additionally, adverse weather conditions and flooding have negatively impacted cash crop cultivation, leading farmers to scale back production of less economically viable crops such as corn, sweet potatoes, and peanuts.
Production of industrial crops in the period 2016-2021 cashew rubber tree coffee tea pepper m illio n t ons
Figure 9 Show production of industrial crops in the period 2016-2021
During this period, the total production of industrial crops experienced a steady increase, with the exception of cashew and tea Specifically, in 2017, cashew nut production saw a significant decline of 29.3%, while tea production also fell by 6% compared to the previous year, 2016.
After 5 years, the 3 largest products in terms of output, rubber increased by 22.85%, coffee increased by 26.3% and tea increased by 3.8% Obviously, coffee is still a potential industrial crop bringing abundant supply to our country.
In the first nine months of 2022, the output of key industrial crops showed an increase compared to the same period in 2021 Notably, tea buds reached 891.9 thousand tons, marking a 0.7% rise; rubber production reached 841.3 thousand tons, up by 3.2%; and pepper output totaled 267.6 thousand tons, reflecting a 0.5% increase.
Output of fruit trees in the period 2016-2021 banana mango oranges, tangerines logan lychee, rambutan grapefruit m illio n t ons
Figure 10 Show the output of fruit trees in the period 2016-2021
(million tons) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 banana 1977 2066.2 2095.6 2194.2 2267.5 2346.9 mango 728.1 745.5 791.8 839 892.7 999.6 oranges, tangerines 806.9 957.9 1075 1220 1359.7 1784.7 logan 503 499.3 543.7 528 568.2 607.3 lychee, rambutan 648.4 562.9 731.8 617.8 636.6 679 grapefruit 500.3 571.3 653.7 818.9 932 1034.7
Fruit trees exhibit a significantly faster production growth over the years compared to industrial trees Despite notable declines in lychee and rambutan production in 2017 (down 13.2% from 2016) and 2019 (down 15.58% from 2018), as well as decreases in longan during the same years, the majority of other fruit varieties have shown positive growth trends.
Banana is currently the fruit tree with the largest amount of production, up 18.7% after 5 years Besides, the output of oranges and tangerines (up 121.2%) and the output of pomelos (up 106.8%).
In the first nine months of 2022, the output of various fruit trees showed significant growth, with bananas producing 1,832.5 thousand tons, a 4.7% increase from the previous year Oranges reached 989.6 thousand tons, marking a 10.1% rise, while mangoes yielded 812.4 thousand tons, up 3.3% Longan production was 531.7 thousand tons, reflecting a 3.5% increase, and pomelo output reached 527.8 thousand tons, up 6% However, dragon fruit production declined to 701.1 thousand tons, a 9.6% decrease attributed to lower selling prices and reduced export volumes, leading to a lack of care for the orchards, many of which are aging without replanting.
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics pig (millions) 29.07 27.4 28.15 19.61 22.03 23.53 poultry (millions) 361.7 385.5 409 481.1 512.7 526.3
The livestock industry generally experiences an annual increase in the number of cows and poultry, despite occasional disease outbreaks that complicate the sector In contrast, the population of buffalo continues to decline gradually.
In 2017, the pig population declined due to low pork prices, resulting in a 5.7% reduction in livestock production compared to 2016 However, starting in 2018, the livestock industry transitioned from small, scattered operations to a more concentrated farm model, leading to a significant recovery in pig farming.
2019, the number of pigs dropped a record (down 30.3% compared to 2018) due to the occurrence of African swine fever, but recovered in the following years.
Animal husbandry remained stable in the first three quarters of 2022, with the outbreak of dermatitis being gradually controlled; however, the risk of recurrence remains significant Local authorities and specialized agencies must persist in implementing effective disease prevention and control measures, ensuring organized vaccination efforts, and monitoring for new outbreaks Additionally, it is crucial to address illegal transportation and trade of buffaloes and cows of unknown origin.
The rate of increase/decrease in the number of cattle and poultry at the end of September 2022 compared to the same time last year
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics damaged forest
(thousand ha) 4.50 1.5 0.9 3.3 1.5 2.01 burnt forest (ha) 3320.8 471.7 293.7 2716.5 645.3 1229 cleared forest (ha) 1198.7 1043.9 616 596.1 819 786 harvested timber
Timber production has shown a consistent annual growth, averaging approximately 7% each year However, in 2020, the exploitation rate experienced a decline due to the Covid-19 pandemic's impact on the wood processing product consumption chain, resulting in a 5.2% increase compared to 2019.
The area of new bare forest fluctuates around 280 thousand hectares, only in 2017 recorded the largest afforestation area of 292.2 thousand hectares.
Wildfires driven by extreme heat resulted in significant destruction in 2016, 2019, and 2021, with 2016 experiencing the most severe impact, as 3,320.8 hectares of forest were burned and 1,198 hectares were deforested In contrast, 2018 saw the lowest deforestation rate in six years, with only 0.9 thousand hectares of forest affected.
Generally, in the first nine months of 2022, the area of newly concentrated planted forests is estimated at 191.2 thousand hectares, up 4.1% over the same period last year.
[1], down 62.2% over the same period last year, of which the burnt forest area was 24.5 ha, down 98.3%; the area of forest cut and cleared was 863.4 ha, down 1.6%.
Fishery production in the period 2016-2021 exploited seafood farmed seafood thousa nd t ons
Figure 11 Show fishery production in the period 2016-2021
(thousand tons) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 exploited seafood 3163.3 3389.3 3606.7 3777.7 3863.7 3937.1 farmed seafood 3640.6 3835.7 4161.8 4490.5 4633.5 4855.4 seafood 6803.9 7225 7768.5 8268.2 8497.2 8792.5
Following a significant marine environmental incident in 2016, the fishery industry experienced a recovery, achieving an average yield growth of approximately 6% annually However, the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a decline in this growth rate, reducing it to an average of 2.25% per year.
In the first nine months of 2022, aquaculture production increased by 7.2% compared to the previous year, totaling 3,611.2 thousand tons This included fish production of 2,415.6 thousand tons (up 6.5%), shrimp production of 777.6 thousand tons (up 10.4%), and other aquatic products reaching 418 thousand tons (up 5.5%) However, high fuel prices and adverse weather conditions, influenced by storms, posed challenges to the fishing industry.
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics tropical depressions, fishermen limit going out to sea or let their ships lie on shore,resulting in marine fishery output fishing products were estimated at 2,991.6 thousand tons, down 2.4% over the same period last year, of which: Fish reached 2,335.6 thousand tons, down 2.5%; shrimp reached 109 thousand tons, down 1.1%, other aquatic products reached 547 thousand tons, down 2.1%.
Industry
Figure 12 Show the development of Whole Industry from 2016 to 2021
From 2016 to 2021, the state-owned sector experienced positive growth, excluding mining and quarrying However, industrial production indexes largely declined, especially in 2020 during the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak in Vietnam The Industrial Production Index (IIP) saw a steady decline in 2020 due to the adverse effects of the pandemic on industrial output, disruptions in the supply chain of raw materials, and a contraction in import and export markets, before rebounding in 2021.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) saw a significant increase of 9.1% in 2019 compared to 2018, driven by a 10.4% growth in the processing and manufacturing sector This growth outpaced previous years, where the industry recorded an average annual increase of 9.5% from 2016 to 2019 Additionally, the power generating and distribution sector maintained steady growth, while the mining and quarrying industry also experienced rapid positive development.
Figure 13 Show the development of Manufacturing from 2016 to 2021
Manufacturing is a key driver of economic growth, though it can be quite complex The Covid-19 pandemic led to significant declines in many industries by 2020 However, Vietnam's collective efforts facilitated a recovery in 2021 Notably, the production of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals, and botanical products has been on a different trajectory, with growth expected to peak in 2020 due to increased demand and shortages of certain medical supplies and equipment.
Figure 14 Show the development of Mining and quarrying from 2016 to 2021
The 2016 study highlights that the significant decline in the mining and quarrying sector led to a decrease in the industrial production index, contrasting with the growth observed in previous years This sector has faced ongoing negative growth over time.
From 2016 to 2018, mining and quarrying faced negative growth, indicating a decline over three years However, the 2018 report shows that the economy is shifting away from reliance on resource and mineral extraction, with a modest growth of 1.29% recorded in 2019, contributing 0.09 percentage points to overall economic growth Unfortunately, the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to lead to a significant downturn in all mining and quarrying sectors by 2020.
Figure 14 Show the development of the Whole industry in three quarters of 2022
In the first quarter of 2022, industrial production demonstrated robust growth, with an overall increase of 7.07% compared to the same period last year Notably, the processing and manufacturing sector experienced the highest growth rate at 7.79%, while the production and distribution of electricity also saw an upward trend.
In the first nine months of 2022, the industry's added value rose by 8.48% compared to the same period in 2021, with quarterly increases of 6.97%, 9.87%, and 12.12% The processing and manufacturing sector experienced a notable 9.66% growth, up from 7.72% in the first quarter and 11.45% in the second quarter, contributing 2.58 percentage points to the overall increase in the economy's total added value.
Transport
Passenger transport (million turns of people)
The first three quarters of 2022 2.842,3 1.492,7
2552.4 Volume of passengers transported in the period 2016-2021
Year m illion t ur ns of pe ople
Figure 15 Show the volume of passengers transported in the period 2016-2021
Between 2016 and 2019, the average annual growth rate of passenger transport was 11.75%, indicating stable growth during this period However, in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacted the industry, leading to a decline of 1,084 million passengers, which represents a 22.3% decrease from the previous year The situation worsened in 2021, with passenger volume dropping further to 2,552.4 million passengers.
It can be seen that the Covid-19 epidemic has had a strong impact on the field of passenger transport.
Volume of goods transported in the period 2016-2021
Figure 16 Show the volume of goods transported in the period 2016-2021
Between 2016 and 2019, the average growth rate of transported goods was 11.87%, as reported in 2022 This period saw a consistent increase in freight transport However, in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic led to a decline in freight transport volume, mirroring the trends observed in passenger transport.
In 2019, freight transport experienced a decline of 2.6%, as reported in the 2020 statistical yearbook However, by 2021, the sector showed significant improvement, operating steadily despite the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, with a total of 1,640.5 million tons transported, marking a 1.2% increase compared to 2020.
The epidemic has affected the transport industry, but our country has tried to operate stably in that situation.
5.3 Passenger transport in the first three quarters of 2022
In the first three quarters of 2022, the epidemic was under control, so the volume of passenger transport increased, reaching 2,842.3 million passengers (up 40.7% over the
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics same period last year, according to the report on the economic and social situation in the third quarter and nine months of 2022) Specifically, the aviation sector increased by 162%, the railway also recorded impressive results with an increase of 176%, and the waterway also increased by 12.5% over the same period in 2021.
5.4 Freight transport in the first three quarters of 2022
In the first three quarters of 2022, the volume of goods transported rose significantly to 1,492.7 million tons, marking a 24.4% increase compared to the same period in the previous year, as reported in the economic and social situation report Notably, railway transport saw a growth of 4.3%, while waterway transport experienced a substantial increase of 12.5%.
Economic Growth
GDP Growth Rate in the period 2016-2021
Figure 17 Show the GDP Growth Rate in the period 2016-2021
In general, the size of Vietnam's GDP always tends to increase in the period from
2016 to 2021 On average, in the period 2016 - 2019, the GDP growth rate reached 6.78% Especially, 2018 and 2019 achieved impressive growth results with growth rates of 7.08% and 7.02% respectively.
By 2020, economic growth is projected to slow to 2.91%, with a further decline to 2.58% in 2021 This period coincides with the widespread outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, which significantly impacted all sectors, including the economy in Vietnam.
Figure 20 Show the GDP per head in the period 2016-2021
GDP per capita at current prices is always higher than the previous year From 2016 to
In 2021, the GDP per capita experienced a steady growth, reaching 3,717 USD per person, which marks an increase of 165 USD from 2020 Additionally, the GDP at current prices for 2021 is projected to be 8,479.7 trillion VND, equivalent to approximately 366.1 billion USD.
GDP Growth Rate in the first three quarters of 2022
In the first quarter of 2022, Vietnam's GDP experienced a growth of 5.03% compared to the same period last year, marking a significant milestone in the country's economic recovery as the world begins to rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Second quarter: GDP at current prices of the second quarter of 2022 was 2312996
(VND billion) and it increased by 7.72% over the same period last year This recovery
E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics took place at a rather fast pace when the Covid-19 epidemic was under control and the 31st SEA Games were successfully held in Vietnam.
Third quarter: In the third quarter of 2022, the current GDP is estimated at 2373152
In the context of a declining global economy, Vietnam's economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, achieving a growth of 13.67% compared to the same period last year, amounting to VND billion This impressive figure highlights the robust expansion of Vietnam's economic landscape.
In the first nine months of 2022, Vietnam's GDP reached approximately 6,839,048 billion VND, marking an impressive growth of 8.87% compared to the same period last year This significant increase represents the highest GDP growth rate in the past five years, highlighting Vietnam's remarkable economic progress in the context of global trends.