(Luận văn) assessment of the climate resilient livelihoods of hmong’s ethnic in pa co commune, mai chau district, hoa binh province

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOIVIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY PHAN THI LAN ANH ASSESSMENT OF THE CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOODS OF HMONG’S ETHNIC IN PA CO COMMUNE, MAI CHAU DISTRICT, HOA BI

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

PHAN THI LAN ANH

ASSESSMENT OF THE

CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOODS OF HMONG’S ETHNIC IN PA CO COMMUNE, MAI CHAU DISTRICT, HOA BINH PROVINCE

MASTER’S THESIS

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

PHAN THI LAN ANH

ASSESSMENT OF THE

CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOODS OF HMONG’S ETHNIC IN PA CO COMMUNE, MAI CHAU DISTRICT, HOA BINH PROVINCE

MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT

I have read and understood the plagiarism violations I pledge with personalhonor that this research result is my own and does not violate the Regulation onprevention of plagiarism in academic and scientific research activities at VNUVietnam Japan University (Issued together with Decision No 700/QD-ĐHVN dated30/9/2021 by the Rector of Vietnam Japan University)

Author of the thesis

PHAN THI LAN ANH

I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Assoc Prof Nguyen Tuan Anhand Assoc Prof Nguyen Tai Tue, my supervisors, for their supervision throughoutthis dissertation Thank you for accepting me as your student I am indebted to yourinvaluable support, encouragement, and advice I could not complete this dissertationwithout your instruction and feedback from the beginning

Many thanks to my friends in the MCCD at Viet Nam Japan University for theirencouragement Your inspiration has enhanced my confidence to complete this study

This thesis is supported by the project, entitled “Research and application ofartificial intelligence in monitoring and predicting of radioactive release in miningareas, a case study in Sin Quyen copper mine” of Vietnam National University, Hanoi,code QG.21.19

Finally, I am thankful to my family Thank you to my wonderful my law for leaving hometown to come to Hanoi city to take care of my baby so that I canhave more time for studying

mother-in-TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES i

LIST OF FIGURES II LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS III CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Research objectives, questions, and hypothesis 2

1.3 Subject and scope 3

1.3.1 Research subject 3

1.3.2 Scope ……… 4

1.4 Literature review 5

1.4.1 International research 5

1.4.2 National research 7

1.4.3 Studies in the study site 9

1.4.4 Key concepts 10

1.5 Overview of research area 13

1.5.1 Natural conditions 13

1.5.2 Natural resources 17

1.5.3 Socio-economic status 19

CHAPTER 2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND METHODS 21

2.1 Methodology 21

2.1.1 Research approaches 21

2.1.2 Research methods 22

2.1.3 In-depth interview 24

2.1.4 Focus group discussion 25

2.1.5 Household survey 25

2.1.6 Household case study 27

2.2 Establishing a set of livelihood resilience indicators 27

2.3 Data processing methods 29

CHAPTER 3 RESULTS, DISCUSSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 35

3.1 Current status of livelihood in Pa Co Commune 35

3.2 Climate change impacts in the study site 40

3.2.1 Precipitation 40

3.2.2 Temperature 43

3.2.3 Extreme weather: heat and cold 44

3.2.4 Landslides and erosion 48

3.2.5 Impacts of climate change on livelihood 49

3.3 Assessment of climate-resilient livelihood in the study site 52

3.3.1 Social capital 55

3.3.2 Natural capital 58

3.3.3 Financial capital 59

3.3.4 Human capital 61

3.3.5 Physical capital 63

3.4 Limitations of this study 69

3.5 Recommendations 69

3.5.1 General recommendations 71

3.5.2 Specific recommendations 71

CONCLUSIONS 73

REFERENCES 75

APPENDIX 78

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 The research objectives, questions and hypothesis 3

Table 1.2 Time, place, research contents of the fieldwork in Pa Co commune 4

Table 1.3 Definitions of livelihood resilience 12

Table 1.4 Average annual temperature 15

Table 3.1 Description of study commune in 2019 35

Table 3.2 Major income of Pa Co commune in 2019 37

Table 3.3 Number of hot days for 3 levels for period 2001-2020 46

Table 3.4 Number of very cold days/ extreme cold days in Mai Chau station for period 2001-2020 46

Table 3.5 Damages caused by natural disasters in Mai Chau 50

Table 3.6 Damages caused by disasters in the past 10 years 50

Table 3.7 Results of livelihood resilience in livelidhood to climate change in the Pa Co commune 52

Table 3.8 Assessment of capacity to adapt to climate change through five sources of capital 67

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Map of Pa Co commune, Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province 5

Figure 1.2 Landscapes in Pa Co commune 17

Figure 1.3 Hang Kia and Pa Co nature reserve 18

Figure 2.1 Framework of the thesis 21

Figure 2.2 Climate-resilient livelihood framework 27

Figure 3.1 Livelihoods in Pa Co commune 36

Figure 3.2 Major income sources of households (%) 37

Figure 3.3 Hmong space and Tourist 38

Figure 3.4 Annual variation of rainfall at Mai Chau station 41

Figure 3.5 Change of total annual precipitation in Mai Chau (2001-2020) 42

Figure 3.6 The annual variation of the number of heavy rainy days 42

Figure 3.7 Trend of heavy rainfall days in period 2001-2020 43

Figure 3.8 Annual variation of temperature at Mai Chau station in the period 2001-2020 43

Figure 3.9 Change of average temperature in Mai Chau (2001-2020) 44

Figure 3.10 Average number of hot days per month according to 3 levels in the period 2001-2020 45

Figure 3.11 Change in the total number of hot days at Mai Chau station in the period 2001-2020 45

Figure 3.12 The number of days of extreme cold/severe cold per year at Mai Chau station in the period 2001-2020 47

Figure 3.13 The changing trend of the total number of cold days at Mai Chau station in the period 2001-2020 48

Figure 3.14 Landslide along the way to Pa Co Commune 48

Figure 3.15 Household’s perception on the impacts of natural disasters (%) 49

Figure 3.16 Radar map of indicators of five capitals of Tourism livelihood resilience 54

Figure 3.17 Proportion of support from neighbor 55

Figure 3.18 Local people Participate in the social community 56

Figure 3.19 Local people Participate in the social community 57

Figure 3.20 Local people owning farmland 59

Figure 3.21 Local people access to bank account 60

Figure 3.22 Income of Tourism households 60

Figure 3.23 Education level of Tourism households 62

Figure 3.24 The local people participate in training course of production 63

Figure 3.25 Road status under bad weather 64

Figure 3.26 Distance from household to water resources and the nearest market 64

Figure 3.27 Local people owning essential equipment for production 65

Human CapitalLivelihood ResilienceNatural Capital

Social Capital

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Climate change has been affecting natural resources and the environment, andthe socio-economic activities of many countries worldwide The Earth's climate hasbeen changing, and failure to keep warming below 2°C might make the changesirreversible and lead to devastating consequences which have impacted the poorest andmost vulnerable, particularly impoverished women, endangering their livelihoods(UNDP, 2017)

Vietnam is one of the countries in the world that are severely affecting byclimate change (MONRE, 2016) The most often publicized effect of climate change issea-level rise, which has consequences such as crop and arable land loss due to salt-water intrusion and storm surges in the coastal zones (IPCC, 2014) However, thesusceptibility of Vietnam to the effects of CC is not limited to the coastal regions.Currently, there is inadequate understanding of and support for addressing theimplications of CC on disadvantaged (and minority) communities in Vietnam's vastrural and mountainous regions

In the Northern mountainous areas, CC has reduced rainfall during some seasons,causing more severe droughts in some areas Furthermore, natural catastrophes areparticularly dangerous on steeply sloping land and land prone to cause the landslides andsoil erosion Due to high levels of poverty, poor infrastructure, limited access totechnologies, and an increased reliance on natural resources, the effects of climate changeare projected to be more severe in mountainous areas in Vietnam

In the high mountainous areas, opportunities to develop sustainable and resilientlivelihoods are limited The rural poor's livelihoods and well-being are strongly reliant onnatural resources, making them particularly vulnerable to environmental deterioration andclimate change's effects Furthermore, developing countries like Vietnam have insufficientcapacity to assist their poor rural populations in adapting to a changing environment As aresult, a good adaptation strategy to climate change will be

required shortly The support measures resulting from this needs assessment shouldprioritize reducing vulnerability and expanding rural livelihood opportunities, andensuring an integrated approach that considers the role of CC in exacerbating thesechallenges and strengthening communities' ability to adapt.

According to the report No 255/SNN-NL of the Department of Agriculture andDevelopment of Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province there are about 1889households with lack of water for daily life due to drought and 140ha of agriculturalland affected droughts and floods

Pa Co commune locates in a remote and mountainous region of Mai Chaudistrict with difficult socio-economic conditions with a complicated topographyconsisting primarily of hills, steep slopes, and an elevation of 1.200 meters above sealevel, as is typical of northern mountain rafters

The terrain of Pa Co is long and narrow, surrounded by rocky mountains Karstrock - cannot store water and the amount of soil cover is fragile, so besides corn andgalangal, few other plants are suitable and can only do one crop because of the lack ofsource water and surface water In the context of CC, this commune faces unexpectedand complex climatic conditions, causing difficulties for natural ecosystems andhuman activities

The livelihoods of the people in Pa Co commune mainly depend on agriculture,cultivating maize, rice, crops on upland fields, and exploiting forest products Theselivelihoods are highly dependent on weather, climate and natural conditions However,there is still a lack of comprehensive assessment of livelihoods resilient to the impacts

of climate change in this mountainous locality For those reasons, the thesis, entitled

“Assessment of the climate-resilient livelihood of Hmong’s ethnic in Pa Co commune, Mai Chau District, Hoa Binh” has been chosen to study.

1.2 Research objectives, questions, and hypothesis

This study aims to assess how climate change has affected the livelihoods of localpeople in Pa Co commune and how local community develop the various types oflivelihoods to adapt to CC It also pertains to the analysis of the possibility for improving

local livelihoods' resilience to climate change In addition, this research will presentideas and solutions of livelihood models that may be used to increase the livelihood’sadaptation to climate change in this region.

Table 1.1 The research objectives, questions and hypothesis

Objectives

Climate change, particularly What is climate change To study the climateextreme weather events such impacting to the livelihoods change effects on the

as storms, floods, unusual of local people in Pa Co livelihoods of the local

heat, and hail, has negatively commune? people

affected people's livelihood

activities in Pa Co commune

The local people have relied What are resources for the To assess the

on five livelihood capitals to local people to better adapt livelihood resilience

develop different ways to to climate change? levels of the local

Among the livelihood What are natural and social To analyze potentialsmodels, the eco-tourism features favorable for the to improve local

livelihood will be the highest local people enhance their livelihood resilience to

resilience to climate change livelihood to climate climate change

in the Pa Co commune change?

1.3 Subject and scope

1.3.2 Scope

The research was conducted in Pa Co commune, Mai Chau District, Hoa BinhProvince

Study site: Pa Co commune, Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province

Duration: 1 year from 8/2020-8/2021

The fieldwork time in the locality is divided into 2 periods, with specific contents

as follows (Table 1.2) The research uses the statistical data and related reports on climatechange impacts, livelihood and climate change adaptation in Pa Co commune

Table 1.2 Time, place and research contents of the fieldwork in Pa Co commune

Period 1: - Board of management - Overall assessment of the research and

26 Feb 2021 - for Pa Co Nature Reserve study site selection

02 Mar 2021 - Pa Co Commune - Secondary documents collection

Trial interview with households (pilot)

- Livelihood area observation

- Discuss group (households)

- Case study researchPeriod 2: - Board of management - To implement the in-depth interview and

18 Jun 2021 - for Pa Co Nature Reserve case study

25 Jun 2021 - Pa Co commune - To interview the households

4

Figure 1.1 Map of Pa Co commune, Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province 1.4 Literature review

1.4.1 International research

In recent years, many studies on resilience to climate change have beenconducted in developing countries, mainly focusing on Asia and Africa These studieshave focused on assessing aspects of climate change impacts on people's livelihoods

Gentle & Maraseni (2012) researched on climate change, poverty, livelihoodsand adaptation practices by rural mountain communities in Nepal This study showsthat the impacts of climate change occurring in rural mountainous communities arebecoming more and more severe Climate change degrades natural resources, affectsfood security and causes social inequality The poor in rural and mountainous areas arethe most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change Bhadwal et al (2019)proved that the impacts of climate change on lives and livelihoods are different Animportant factor determining these disparate effects was gender This study highlightedvulnerability to the impacts of climate change on lives and livelihoods It highlightsthe lack of access to human, financial and natural capital as the leading cause ofvulnerability by gender

For manufacturing industries, climate change affects supporting infrastructure.

In contrast, humans are also factors that affect mountainous ecosystems through economic development, exacerbating the vulnerability of people living in coastal areas.Synthesized results from many works show that the livelihood capital of ruralcommunities in high mountain regions depends mainly on natural conditions, so whenencountering abnormal weather conditions or natural disasters, the level of povertywill increase the severity of the vulnerability Some researches focus on livelihoodsuch as: Tanner T (2015) presented a thorough examination and analysis oflivelihoods, CC, and livelihood resistance to the effects of climate change It alsodemonstrates that climate change has a broad impact on livelihood systems, raisingcommunity risks and vulnerabilities Dev (2012) implied the impacts of climatechange on rural livelihoods, agriculture, and food security; Dube & Nhamo (2020)provides evidence on climate variability and change and its impact on the globaltourist resort of Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe Nocera et al (2018) assesses the impacts ofclimate change on the mobility of tourists in mountainous areas and distinguishesbetween infrastructure, transportation activities and travel need Devkota (2013)research focuses on people's understanding and their experience of CC, its impact ondependent tourism livelihoods of mountain communities The variation with thefrequency and intensity of climate and climate variables changes the hazards that havebeen observed and slow down business tourism and tourism activities in the local area

socio-Researchers from all over the world are becoming increasingly worried aboutclimate-resilient livelihoods, particularly for high mountain tribes in Asia, LatinAmerica, and Africa However, there is currently a scarcity of research that takes aholistic approach to climate-resilient living Furthermore, rural high mountaincommunities are more vulnerable than communities in urban or inland areas due to alack of resources, including financial resources, especially for communities andhouseholds with only one source of income, small livelihood sizes, and disadvantagedgroups (the poor, women)

1.4.2 National research

In Vietnam, research on livelihoods adapting to climate change is of interest tointernational organizations such as CARE, SRD, CRD, etc CARE internationalorganization in Vietnam is a pioneer organization that conducts community-basedclimate change adaptation research Given the impact of CC on food security, people'sincome, drinking water, health, and migration, CARE offers an approach to livelihoodsadaptation to CC and proposes a set of criteria for assessing CC adaptation models

The Center for Sustainable Rural Development Organization (SRD), with theproject "Sustainable livelihoods responding to climate change in Northern Viet Nam",has deployed a research project in Yen Bai, Thai Nguyen, Quang Ninh, Hoa Binhprovince The project focuses on four key themes closely linked: climate change,irrigation, water supply and sanitation, land and livelihoods, value chains and marketaccess The assessments and surveys are participated in by local people in theseprovinces for assessing their vulnerability and designing interventions to supportvulnerable rural communities to develop more sustainable livelihoods in the context ofclimate change through adaptation and mitigation activities

In 2016, the general knowledge about adaptive livelihoods and some goodexamples of adaptive livelihoods that NGOs have successfully built in the past time inthe communities Regions across the country were summarized in the document

"Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change: Evaluation Criteria and Examples" by theVietnam Network of Non-Governmental Organizations and CC (VNGO&CC),Working Group on CC (CCWG), and the Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and

CC, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in collaboration to implement.Currently, this document is used in guidance documents for NGO staff working onintervention projects related to sustainable livelihoods adapted to CC

ADDA organization developed the project "Climate change and ethnicminorities" in Northern Vietnam (CEMI), implemented from 2014 to 2017 in threeprovinces: Dien Bien, So La and Lai Chau This project focuses on supporting ethnicminority communities in mountainous areas of three regions The project's objective is

to increase the access of ethnic minorities to information about CC and its impact onthe planning process to respond to CC, food security and poverty alleviation.

In addition, recently, there have been a lot of studies focusing on sustainablerural livelihoods For example, Son & Kingsbury (2020) focuses on understanding theaccumulated indigenous knowledge of the Dao ethnic group in Bac Kan province ofVietnam This study argues that indigenous knowledge is well utilized and practiced,integrated into adaptation policies and plans It will help people become more resilient

to CC in indigenous communities-land and livelihood activities Another study, (Ha &Kühling, 2020)research on resilient climate livelihoods and secure income forsmallholder farmers in Thai Nguyen Province aims to identify strategic for climate-resilient

Research group of the University of Forestry implemented the topic

"Indigenous knowledge in agriculture and forestry adapting to CC of the Dao people inBac Me district, Ha Giang province" This study assessed the weather factors thataffect the livelihood of the Dao people in Ha Giang province Therefore, theindigenous knowledge that the Dao people apply in agricultural production to adapt toclimate change is essential, contributing to livelihoods, improving and maintainingecosystems, enhancing adaptability and reducing vulnerability in the community.Indigenous knowledge is a sustainable solution to help the Dao community adapt to

CC (Dong et al., 2020) And (Ho et al., 2019) focuses on indigenous knowledge drawnfrom centuries of observation and experimentation; the Yao people have developedcomplex farming systems, cultural practices, and knowledge bases adapted to theenvironment of the Dao people in Bac Kan province, Vietnam Onother study aboutindigenous knowledge in relation to climate change of focus (Huynh et al., 2020) oninvestigates the role of traditional agricultural practices of the Xo Dang ethnic groups

in central Vietnam and provides insights into the factors influencing farmers' adoption

of these practices This practice is in response to the climate change of ethnicminority groups in Central Vietnam

In summary: Above studies demonstrated that climate change impacts the

livelihoods of local people In particular, agro-forestry livelihoods are the most

vulnerable and significantly affected by climate change Most of these livelihood activities

of the upland people are highly dependent on nature And the above studies also givesuggestions for solutions to develop sustainable livelihoods and adapt to climate change.Many ethnic minority groups are the poorest and most vulnerable group to naturaldisasters disasters, epidemics etc I realized that the projects only stopped at povertyreduction interventions, building livelihood models for CC adaptation However, theseprojects lack sustainability when NGOs withdraw, and they often cannot sustain long-termdue to lack of funding Studies on CC-responsive livelihoods mainly focus on howindigenous peoples adapt their livelihoods to climate change and in-depth research onindigenous peoples' use of climate change Their knowledge to produce and developlivelihoods adapted to climate change However, there are still not many workshops,projects, or studies related to building climate-resilient livelihoods in Vietnam.Meanwhile, they are considered key to solving problems related to CC, reducing disasterrisks and developing more sustainably and adaptively

1.4.3 Studies in the study site

Two international NGOs have implemented the projects to help ethnic minoritieshere in production and livelihood activities in Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province

World Vision started to implement the first project in Mai Chau in 2012.However, World Vision's livelihood projects only stop supporting agriculturalproduction models suitable for families with young children The organization also had

a project on disaster management and capacity building for the community, mainlyequipping them with knowledge on disaster prevention and mitigation and climatechange adaptation, which is integrated into the common goal of development.Regional development of the organization, not a single project on livelihoods adapted

to climate change

The second organization is Good Neighbors with the Green Light Eco projectfocusing on four main groups: upgrading the waste treatment system, building aplayground made from recycled materials for children, and implementing a strategy.Environmental protection and operation of a recycling livelihood group Although it is

a mountainous district in the North and is heavily affected, unfortunately, there iscurrently no specific study on livelihoods affected by CC in this area.

In Pa Co commune, there have been two studies, in which the first one was thestudy of "indigenous knowledge in forest protection of the people", conducted by PanNature organization (Center for People and Nature) at Hang Kia – Pa Co naturereserve This study has shown the importance of practising local knowledge in forestprotection associated with sustainable livelihoods in 2 Hang Kia communes and Pa Co

In the second study "The relationship between poverty and diversification of livelihoodactivities" the author shows a close and negative relationship between poverty and thediversity of livelihood activities The lower the variety of livelihood activities, thehigher the poverty rate (Dang Huu Lieu, 2016)

In summary: there has not been any research on livelihood resilience to climate

change in Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province Therefore, the topic "Assessment of theclimate resilience of Hmong's ethnic in Pa Co commune, Mai Chau District, Hoa BinhProvince” is chosen to study The impact of CC on the livelihood of the H’mong ethnicgroup in Pa Co commune was evaluated with the approach of 5 types of capital The studyassessed the livelihoods in Pa Co commune, the ability of the HMong people to adapt toclimate change in production activities and developed a strategy for sustainable livelihooddevelopment adapting to climate change for the area

1.4.4 Key concepts

a) Livelihood and sustainable livelihood

The concept of livelihood is understood as the set of all the resources and abilitiesthat people have, combined with the decisions and activities they undertake to earn aliving and achieve their goals and objectives The term "livelihood" refers to a method ofearning a living that includes three elements: assets, energy, and activities required tomake a living (Scoones, 1998) And according to the concept of sustainable livelihood, alivelihood "includes the capabilities, resources, and activities required for individuals tohave a means of subsistence (Chambers and Conway, 1992) Sustainable livelihoods are amatter of concern to all countries globally to reduce vulnerability, enhance adaptation,

and poverty reduction, most notably the analyses of Amartya Sen, Robert Chambers, andseveral other scholars, other fakes The effectiveness of development activities has beenstressed in studies, and sustainable livelihood approaches result from a debate amongresearchers about the theory and reality of rural economic development In 2001, the UKAgency for the Department for International Development – (DFID) introduced theconcept of livelihoods to guide its support activities, according to which livelihoods

"include capabilities, resources and necessary activities as a means of living for people."All of this demonstrates that sustainable livelihoods and livelihoods are a complexproblem with many competing viewpoints Researchers in their approach widely use theDFID approach As a result, the author examines the biological, sustainable design, whichencompasses five different types of capital: physical, natural, and human capital Humancapital, financial capital, and social capital are three types of capital In which, livelihoodresources are defined as human access to resources as the central factor, which is dividedinto five categories as follows: (1) Human capital consists of skills, knowledge,experience, job capacity, health, and education, all of which aid people in implementingvarious livelihood plans; (2) Natural capital Natural capital refers to resources found in thenatural world that humans can use to support themselves;

(3) Physical capital includes basic supporting infrastructure system for livelihoodactivities such as electricity, roads, schools, stations, administrative areas, factories; (4)Financial capital including the capital that people use to achieve livelihood goals: cash,bank deposits, loans, borrowing borrow or credit, subsidize, give, or transfer, etc.; (5)Social capital includes relationships in society, organizations that the glue of acommunity increases collective strength and sparks pride belong to the community on

which people rely to carry out livelihood activities, relationships among family members,

relatives, neighbors

b) Sustainable livelihood and climate change adaptation

Since the 1990s, international donors such as CARE International, DANIDA,Oxfam, DFID and UNDP have applied the sustainable livelihoods framework topoverty reduction and resource management projects in rural and coastal areas In Asiaand Africa, under a pro-poor approach to livelihood analysis across multiple sectors,including agriculture, fisheries and rural livelihoods in general Livelihoods that are

sustainable Adapting to climate change means creating a livelihood system that isclimate resilient, reduces GHG emissions, and recovers from the effects of climatechange, particularly extreme weather events (storms, floods, etc.) Drought, prolongedheat, intense cold, bad cold, and so on), to secure, maintain, or steadily enhanceproductivity and output while also being compatible with local socioeconomiccapacities and conditions (Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and ClimateChange, 2015) Given the current and future impacts of climate change, climatechange is a significant driver of livelihood risk Effects of CC (e.g., sea-level rise,storms, floods and extreme weather conditions) on livelihoods resources such asnatural resources (e.g., land, water, fisheries) and natural resources materials (roads,irrigation, electricity networks) are significant When livelihood resources are affected,livelihood activities will also be affected For example, frost causes crops to die,thereby affecting household income from farming.

c) Livelihood resilience

Table 1.3 Definitions of livelihood resilience

Livelihood resilience is the capacity of all people across

generations to sustain and improve their livelihood opportunities (Tanner et al.,and well-being despite environmental, economic, social, and 2015)

political disturbances

Building livelihood resilience means that a given household’s

livelihood strategies and activities are better prepared to cope and (Marschke andmanage the impacts of shocks, navigate uncertainty, and adapt to Berkes, 2006)changing conditions

The resilience of farmers’ livelihoods is defined at food risk by

assessing individual responses Therefore, the ability of disaster (Nguyen &prevention and mitigation of rural residents in earthquake-hit areas James, 2013)

is crucial to their livelihood resilience

Livelihood resilience is defined as the ability of communities to (Cote andcope with stresses as a result of social, political, or environmental Nightingale,

The resilience of residents’ livelihoods consists of six components:

(Mekuyie et al.,assets, adaptability, and social safety net, access to public services,

12

Definition Sources

Livelihood resilience based on 5 livelihood capitals to create

composite asset index and assess the livelihood resilience

Livelihood resilience applies a broader set of indicators to (Quandt et al.,resilience measurement, whilst indicators of social resilience can 2018)

be greater narrowly focused inside the sustainable livelihood’s

framework

In this research, the livelihood is considered resilient if it can withstand orrecover from stresses and shocks, preserve or expand its capacities and assets withoutrelying on outside assistance At the same time, it does not jeopardize the livelihoodoptions available to others now or in the future

1.5 Overview of research area

1.5.1 Natural conditions

a) Geographical conditions

Mai Chau is a highland district of Hoa Binh province, 65 km far from the west

of the provincial capital, with a natural area of 56,982.81 ha, the boundaries aredetermined as follows:

The North borders on Da Bac district, Hoa Binh province;

To the south, it borders Quan Hoa district, Thanh Hoa province;

The East borders Tan Lac district, Hoa Binh province;

The West borders Van Ho district, Son La province

Pa Co commune is a remote and extremely arduous commune, 38 km from thecenter of Mai Chau district to the North Total natural area is 19,727.79 ha The Eastborders on Chieng Yen commune, Van Ho district, Son La province and Tan Soncommune, Mai Chau district In the South, it borders Na Meo and Bao La communes.The West borders on Cun Pheo commune, Hang Kia commune The North borders onLong Luong commune, Van Ho district, Son La province (Department of NaturalResources and Environment of Hoa Binh province, 2016)

b) Topography

Mai Chau's topography is quite complex, divided by a system of highmountains and creeks and streams According to topographical characteristics, it can

be divided into two distinct regions:

Lowland: Distributed along Xia stream, Mun stream and National Highway 15,with an area of nearly 2,000 hectares, relatively flat terrain, fertile soil

Upland: Like a belt surrounding the district, including 8 communes with a totalarea of over 400 km2, with many high mountains and rugged terrain The averagealtitude above sea level is about 800 - 900m, the highest point is about 1,200m (in Pa

Co commune), the lowest point is 220m (Mai Chau town) The average slope is from

30o to 35o Overall, Mai Chau's topography is lower in the direction from Northwest toSoutheast

The topography of Pa Co commune is quite complicated, mainly consisting ofconsecutive high hills, steep slopes, alternating with small valleys with fairly flat terrain

- where people focus on producing and growing crops The average height of thecommune is about 1,200m above sea level As the terrain is mainly steep hills (land hills androcky hills), the circuit is divided, the geological structure of the Kast form makes it difficult

to develop production and people's livelihood The land fund for agricultural production issmall and scattered Water resources for production and life are very limited, mainly based

on rain water, and the productivity of crops and livestock is low

The terrain is strongly dissected, the steep slope is an advantage to create a majestic natural landscape with valleys, ravines, etc

climate June, July, August and September are the rainy months, with a total rainfall ofabout 1,076mm (accounting for 70% of the total annual rainfall) August is the monthwith the highest rainfall in the middle year reaching 331.4mm The total annualaverage rainfall is about 1,500mm, which is low compared to the whole country.

The dry season is about 6 months long, starting from mid-October to April ofthe following year, with a total rainfall of about 160mm (accounting for 10% of thetotal annual rainfall), these are also the months with low temperature and cold weather

at least in 3 months; December January and February

Table 1.4 Average annual temperature

Temperature(OC) 17.3 19.5 22.1 25.3 27.4 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.3 24.1 21.4 18.0 23.8

(Source: Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Hoa

Binh province, 2016)The figure shows that the temperature is high in the summer (April-October),with a maximum of 28.4oC in July, lower than in the winter (17.3-22.1oC) Theaverage temperature of the whole period is 23.8oC

Some climate indicators of Hang Kia commune are as follows (according toVan Ho-Son La meteorological station):

- Average air temperature for the whole year: 18.5 oC;

- Average number of sunny hours in the whole year: 1,905 hours;

- Average annual rainfall: 1,560mm;

- Average number of rainy days in the whole year: 179 days;

- Average annual evaporation: 895.7mm;

- The average air hiddenness of the whole year: 85%;

- Average wind speed for the whole year: 2m/s;

- Average number of days with fog in the whole year: 95 days;

- Average number of days with drizzle in the whole year: 60 days.

Because Pa Co commune is located adjacent to Van Ho district - Son Laprovince, the climate and weather conditions are relatively similar (low temperaturecompared to other areas of Mai Chau district): low rainfall, cool climate, sunny

The climate and weather of the commune are mainly favorable for thedevelopment of terrestrial crops (such as maize, other crops and some fruit trees);developing forests and raising buffaloes, cows, pigs and poultry At the same time, italso causes many difficulties for production and life, such as drought and watershortage in the dry season

d) Hydrology

Due to the average altitude of about 1,200 m above sea level with steep hillsand rocky mountain, and geological structure of the karst form (can't hold water), thecommune's water source faces many difficulties Seasonal rainfall relies on rainwaterfor living and production In the dry season, it mainly relies on water stored inreservoirs and some underground mines, but the flow is very limited Some smallstreams in the commune only have water in the rainy season Lack of water for dailylife and production is one of the most important factors limiting the socio-economicdevelopment of the commune in recent years

e) Ecological landscape

Figure 1.2 Landscapes in Pa Co commune

(Source: Author)Mai Chau is blessed with primeval forests, special-use forests, natural riversand lakes, majestic mountains and a system of caves and waterfalls creating a vividlandscape, a green and poetic valley With the available potentials: fresh and coolclimate, white banyan flowers, crimson peach blossoms, lovely houses on stilts, gentleand hospitable people; Mai Chau is also a land famous for folklore, special festivals,rich cuisine, traditional handicrafts imbued with national culture are the strength ofMai Chau tourism

1.5.2 Natural resources

a) Land resources

Soil layer in Mai Chau is mainly composed of red soil and humus These twogroups of land alone account for 92.02% of the natural area Soil has good texture;natural fertility is relatively high However, due to the steep slope, distributed instrongly dissected terrain, the soil has a light mechanical composition, so thepossibility of being washed away is high

The soil system in Mai Chau is formed on ancient or young rock, arising onmetamorphic sedimentary rocks (shale, sandstone, neutral igneous limestone) In someplaces, due to mining for too long, the soil has been eroded by gravel Besides the hilly

soils, in Mai Chau district, there are also some feralite soils modified by wet ricecultivation and alluvial soil.

Due to the characteristics of the soil, the construction of facilities andinfrastructure for tourism is difficult It is necessary to limit the construction of areaswith steep slopes such as along hills and mountains that are likely to be washed away

b) Forests ecosystems

Figure 1.3 Hang Kia and Pa Co nature reserve

(Source: Internet)Mai Chau has quite rich forest resources, mainly natural forest types with manytropical tree species, including precious woods all kinds of trees, valuable specialties,kinds of bamboo, especially in nature reserve areas Pa Co commune is located in

“Hang Kia and Pa Co nature reserve” The total area of the commune's forestry land is1,714.96 ha, of which the forest land is 1,683.54 ha, accounting for 71.69% of the totalnatural land area of the commune (the area of special-use natural forest is 1,632.99 ha,accounting for 69.54% of the natural land area; the area of natural production forest is50.55 ha, accounting for 2.15% of the natural land area diverse, there are many kinds

of precious trees such as Po Mu, Red Pine, Gnat, Mussels, Tau, etc The plantationsare mainly indigenous trees such as Xoan and other plants, which are mainly scattered

in recent years

However, due to the prolonged unplanned exploitation, lack of organization andmanagement, and the burning of forests for widen cultivation by local people, theforest resources here are now being depleted The process of disorganized felling andslash-and-burn farming has created poor grasslands with low coverage, destroying thehabitats of animals At present, forest animals such as pigs, bears, monkeys, gibbons,deer, pheasants, snakes in the existing forest beds in Mai Chau are very rare, if any,

in small numbers, living concentrated in the forests

In recent years, the PAM program and the 327 program, project 661, protectionforest project, 5 million ha new planting project, etc have provided the funds forplanting and protecting forests The forest cover in Mai Chau has been gradually beingrestored Forest care and protection has always been concerned, and the phenomenon

of cutting down forests for cultivation has been basically prevented

1.5.3 Socio-economic status

a) Economic characteristics of Mai Chau district

Mai Chau is one of the districts with a good growth rate of Hoa Binh province,the economic growth in the period 2005 - 2015 was 12.69%

In 2015, the total production value of the district reached 1,337 billion VND (atcurrent prices), 3.4 times higher than in 2005 (393.776 billion VND) Economicsectors develop fairly evenly, there is no big difference; In 2015, agriculture, forestryand fishery accounted for the highest proportion with 38.74%, followed by industry -construction with 33.44% and trade and service with 27.82% The economic structure

of the district is gradually shifting towards industrialization, the agriculture andforestry sector tends to decrease; industry, trade and services are growing

The average income per capita in Mai Chau district in 2015 was 16.117 millionVND/person/year, much lower than the average income per capita in Hoa Binh province(~30 million VND/person/year) The growth rate in the period 2005 - 2015 was 12.69%.Tourism has always been considered as a strength of the district Over the years, it hassignificantly contributed to the general economy of the district, created many jobs forlocal workers, and gradually improved people's living standards Total revenue from

tourists to Mai Chau district in 2015 reached 95.4 billion VND; accounting for 11.5%

of the province's total tourism revenue; the growth rate in the period 2005 - 2015reached 22.2%/year (Hoa Department of Culture, Sport and Tourism of Hoa Binh).However, compared to the general living standard of the province is still low.Therefore, it is necessary to have solutions to further develop tourism, increaserevenue from tourism, and help bring income to people

Pa Co commune, Mai Chau district is home to most of the Hmong ethnic group,with over 98% Hmong people Implement guidelines and policies of the Party andState on policies for ethnic minorities in general For the Hmong people in recentyears, the economy in the Hmong ethnic minority area Pa Co commune has hadsignificant development The economic structure has changed, people's livelihoodshave become more and more diversified, incomes have been increased, livingstandards have been continuously improved The agricultural and rural economicstructure has developed a new step, created more jobs and increasing people's incomes

of the two communes Agricultural production has been actively shifted towardscommodity production with a larger scale, level, quality, value and efficiency in linewith the region's climatic and soil conditions (maize, peach, etc.), plum tree, tea tree,medicinal plants; indigenous cows, chickens, pigs)

b) Social characteristics of Mai Chau district

Mai Chau district's population in 2015 was 54,537 people, accounting for 6.6%

of the province's total population; population density of 96 people/km2, mostconcentrated in Mai Chau town

In addition to Mai Chau town, which is the economic, political and culturalcenter of the district, at present, the district has also formed residential centers in thedirection of urbanization such as: Co Luong (Van Mai), Dong Bang (Dong Bang),these residential areas are mainly distributed along National Highway 15 and NationalHighway 6, which are the nucleus of positive changes for the economy, culture andsociety of Mai Chau district

CHAPTER 2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND METHODS

This chapter describes the research methods to conduct this thesis Firstly, thethesis examined the overall status of the household's livelihood at the Pa Co commune,including resources and livelihood activities Second, the negative impacts of climatechange on the livelihoods of the local community have been evaluated The livelihoodcategories, sustainable livelihood models, and research sites that will be used to assessthe local people's resilience to CC were assessed for proposing the solutions of climatechange resilience (Figure 2.1)

Figure 2.1 Framework of the thesis 2.1 Methodology

2.1.1 Research approaches

Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) was chosen as the methodological approach

because it allows the target stakeholders – poor farmers – to take an active role inidentifying and explaining the challenges they face, their strengths and opportunities, andwhat they most need to help them address climate change and build more sustainablelivelihoods It is also designed to persuade these stakeholders to take ownership of theassessment's results, making them more likely to support and participate on the projects

that arise Local people's involvement is critical in the development of project designsbecause it preserves local techniques and supports ecological, economic, and policysustainability.

Interdisciplinary: Usually, each major has its subject of study and often deals

with its industry-specific problems However, this study must approach the data fromdifferent perspectives by studying the geographical, economic, and social characteristics.There is a general analysis of issues related to climate change and the ability to adapt toclimate change based on livelihoods in Pa Co commune The interdisciplinary researchapproach is based on the perspectives of humanities and social science researchers ingeneral and climate change researchers in particular Studying the effects of climatechange on livelihoods is an integrated issue from many economic, social, andenvironmental fields, so it is impossible to approach each industry individually Theinterdisciplinary approach has been understood as “an approach to social science researchinvolving the cooperation of two or more disciplines” (Margaret Mead, 1930) It isperceived by approaching a holistic approach (holistic approach, 1995) Livelihood isrelated to many different fields in society If only research in a particular area will notshow the reality of the problem, a focus is too narrow; focusing on only one specializedframework would give a highly skewed picture of phenomena

2.1.2 Research methods

Secondary data collection: To begin, secondary data was gathered and

synthesized using the desk research to collect information from available sources such

as books, newspapers, previous theses, report in the research; Studies, documents,publications and reports on livelihoods, resilience and livelihood to CC at domesticand international level These references play an important role in helping me outlinethe theoretical framework and serve as the basis for selecting research sites and usingthem for comparison;

Research methods, principles and ways to develop resilience index assessmentand impact assessment of climate change based on these surveys to find out theresearch framework, methodology and direction for the thesis;

Data and documents related to Mai Chau district and Pa Co commune are provided mainly by MONRE, district and commune:

- Recorded data on the current state of the climate, weather (temperature,precipitation, heat ), data on storms, floods, heat, cold, and extreme cold in Mai Chaudistrict dramas Climate change versions are provided mainly by (MONRE, 2020), (HoaBinh Center Nature Resource) and the data is used to identify and predict CC in the studyarea;

- Data on daily rainfall, daily average temperature and daily maximumtemperature at Mai Chau station in the period 2001-2020 were collected from Hoa BinhProvincial Hydro-meteorological Station These data are utilized in the thesis to computethe annual temperature variation, annual precipitation variation, trend of rainfall, trend oftemperature, number of very cold days, extreme cold days, hot days, and heavy rainfalldays in Mai Chau for the period 2001-2020

- The 5-year socio-economic summary report of Mai Chau district and Pa Co

2019 is used to determine socio-economic conditions, environment, livelihood activities,and development strategies regional development of Mai Chau district;

- Mai Chau district statistical yearbook Report on tourism planning in Mai Chau district with a vision to 2030 and other reports of NGO

Primary data collection: Primary data were collected by sociological research

methods: observation, in-depth interview and household survey and case study, focusgroup discussion Pa Co commune was selected as the study site due to thecharacteristics of the area affected by climate change

Observations are shown through photographs, sources of livelihoods (houses,infrastructure, etc.), activities of livelihoods of local people affected by climate change/ natural disasters

This study used a SWOT analysis to develop a tourism model for Pa Co commune.From there, analyze and suggest how to apply this analysis to build a tourism

model in the virtual community Through SWOT analysis, to help the Hmongcommunity in Pa Co improve their livelihoods more sustainably.

SWOT analysis method: The method used in the report to identify and evaluate

to understand the strength, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges of the people inthe community Livelihood activities as a basis for proposing appropriate solutions andstrategies; for Pa Co commune in developing climate change adaptation livelihoods

Based on the theoretical basis and practical analysis, groups of solutions areproposed to help the livelihood activities of the community to be resilient to climatechange Livelihood solutions for sustainable use of resources, raising householdincome, stabilizing livelihoods, and maintaining livelihoods resilient to climatechange Specific solutions are proposed based on the process of survey, assessment,and interview with the participation of local people

2.1.3 In-depth interview

This is an interview technique that employs a customizable guide and achecklist of crucial questions If a question is discovered to be improper throughout theinvestigation, it can be altered accordingly The goal of adopting the interviewapproach is to gather representative data, in-depth data, and knowledge orunderstanding of climate change among communities or households

In this research, the structured interview is used with two methods: groupclassification and free list To classify groups, based on the different characteristics ofeach livelihood, the subjects of the study are organized into two groups: householdswho only work in agriculture and those who do many other livelihoods Then, for eachgroup, the question (Appendix A) to understand their knowledge about climate changeand adaptation to climate change before designing the questionnaire and more in-depthinterview questions

In the field trip, there are two main reasons to use the unstructured interview.Firstly, the questions are related to the experiences and difficulties of dealing withnatural disasters of local people Because the Hmong people in Pa Co are very good atusing indigenous knowledge in production and adapting to nature Therefore, in each

situation and question, the interviewees have different attitudes and reactions Theunstructured interviews with a list of questions to create a comfortable sharingatmosphere (see Appendix B) Moreover, based on my working experience, I find thatpeople like to be listened to and talk at length, so using this form is appropriate Sixhouseholds representing each village were selected to conduct in-depth interviews onproduction activities The in-depth interviews helped bring more detailed data to thisstudy All interviews were recorded as evidence for the research.

2.1.4 Focus group discussion

In this research, two groups’ discussion and with eight members per each groupare performed Each group discussion took about 90 minutes This thesis focuses onthe livelihoods of Pa Co ethnic people and assesses the impacts of climate change ontheir livelihoods The purpose of the focus group discussion was to find out thedifference of the groups about the livelihood strategies and CC perception The firstgroup includes households whose livelihood activities are only attached to their land.The second group is the group with different livelihoods to generate income

Each group is considered a typical type of society/community, and I wanted toobserve how each group discussed to propose their opinions h in each category ofsociety/community Each group has three main questions to discuss their difficulties,experiences and solutions in production in the context of climate change

2.1.5 Household survey

To collect information on livelihood sources, income, needs of households,especially their perception of climate change, we use a list of questions (Appendix A),selection and interview methods are as follows:

The household questionnaire was designed based on the objective of this study.The household survey is created in the form of a questionnaire/closing question Duringthe preparation period, the quantitative research questions by the scale were carefullyreviewed and designed, and a pilot survey was conducted to re-check the questionnaire Ihad several discussions with local leaders while on tour in the research region, and theyassisted us to review the household survey protocol and establish sampling groups

Survey respondents only represent the representative population of the study site Theauthor selected the sample (household) based on the principles of statistical calculationand the Slovin’s formula.

Face-to-face interviews conducted the questionnaire at the residents' homes;each interview lasted about 30 minutes The household interview consists of five mainparts corresponding to 5 climate adaptation capital: Human capital, physical capital,social capital, financial capital, and natural capital

Sample size is calculated based on Slovin’s formula:

Where:

n = sample size;

N = total number of households in the area;

e = design margin of error (e = 8%)

Content of investigation: The author used stratified non-probability randomsampling to determine the samples in order to verify that the results were representative

Table 2.2 Number of interviewed households Name of villages Number of households Number of interviewed households

(Source: update 03/2021 – Population officer of Pa Co commune)

Pa Co commune has a total of 3029 people and 65 people working in tourism(according to data from the commune People's Committee) Thus, the total number ofsurvey samples is about 56) The thesis tried to interview all 65 households, but theauthor couldn't meet all of them, thus, a total of 58 households was interviewed

2.1.6 Household case study

In this study, the case study method was performed to supplement thearguments that the household interview method has not yet clarified These casestudies are studied to substantiate further the quantitative information obtained in thisstudy A total of 5 case study households are studied to explain better the impact ofclimate change on occupational structure, people's income and ability to cope withlivelihoods under climate change Besides, this study aims to understand more aboutpeople’s awareness about the impact of climate change on livelihood activities

2.2 Establishing a set of livelihood resilience indicators

Resilient livelihoods to climate change need to ensure five capital elements.This study has synthesized, analyzed, selected, and applied many indicators to assessresilience and sustainability in the world and Vietnam to evaluate the resilience index

of livelihood activities in Pa Co commune, including:

Household survey livelihood resilience indicators (Quandt et al., 2018)

An assessment framework of livelihood resilience (Speranza et al., 2014)

Climate-resilient livelihood indicators (CARE, 2015)

Set of indicators for monitoring and evaluating local sustainable developmentfor the period 2013-2020

Figure 2.2 Climate-resilient livelihood framework

The criteria for assessing the resilience of livelihood activities in Pa Cocommune, Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province are evaluated on five maincomponents including:

Natural Capital  Own farmland (Yes or No)

 Soil erosion (rank of severity of soil erosion on farm)Human capital  Labor availability (Number of working members)

 Education (Level of education)

 Health problems impact on ability to practicelivelihoods (Scale from No to very much)

Physical capital  Normal and rainy/dry season road conditions (Scale of

Financial capital  Income (Amount of income)

 Housing situation (Types of houses)

 Access to a bank account (Yes or No)Social capital  Activities with neighbors (Yes or No)

 Participation in groups (Numbers of social groups)

 Participation in production groups (Yes or No)

2.3 Data processing methods

The thesis used the Max-Min method (Statistics Canada, 2003) throughMicrosoft Excel 2010 software to calculate the resilient index The monitoringindicators that need to be collected to serve the research in the thesis are shown in thefollowing table:

Table 2.4 Table of collected data

temperature of years evolution average from 2001 to

from 2001 to 2020 2020

2 The average rainfall Know the rainfall pattern

every year from 2001 average from 2001 to 2020

Hoa Binh Center

Environment of

3 Number of days in the Know the evolution of the

year <10oC<15oC from number of cold days severe Monitoring

2001 to 2020 cold from 2001 to 2020

4 Rainfall statistics Know the progress of the

150mm < 500mm from months little rainfall (drought)

2001 to 2020 in the year from 2001 to 2020

This study used the data: Daily rainfall, average daily temperature, the dailymaximum temperature at Mai Chau station for the period 2001-2020 to calculate andanalyze the climate characteristics of Mai Chau District Specifically, it explores thechanging trend of annual average temperature, annual rainfall, some extreme weatherphenomena such as hot sun, severe cold, harmful cold, heavy rain, some naturaldisasters such as storms and floods Data and documents were collected from HoaBinh Provincial Hydro-meteorological Station and Report on hydrometeorologicalcharacteristics of Hoa Binh province Data on damage caused by natural disasters inMai Chau are taken from the report of the Department of Agriculture and RuralDevelopment of Hoa Binh province