INTRODUCTION
Research Overview
Human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the primary cause of climate change, presenting a significant global challenge Evidence of a changing climate includes rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and increased frequency of natural disasters, highlighting the urgency for action In response, 195 countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, committing to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with efforts aimed at capping it at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels To meet these targets, emissions must peak by 2025 and be reduced by 43% by the decade's end, as indicated by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Despite commitments from 88 countries responsible for nearly 79% of global GHG emissions to achieve net zero, emissions rose by 0.9% in 2022, indicating a significant gap in progress The Emission Gap Report reveals that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) could lead to a temperature rise of 2.4°C to 2.6°C by century's end, underscoring the need for more ambitious action from national governments and stakeholders.
Vietnam ranks thirteenth in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, making it one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change while simultaneously being a rising emitter The nation has seen its economy grow by over 5% annually from 1990 to 2017, resulting in a fourfold increase in Gross National Income (GNI) per capita and lifting over 40 million people out of poverty, which significantly improved its Human Development Index from 0.475 to 0.703 However, this rapid development has led to a projected 150% increase in electricity demand by 2030, and the country's reliance on fossil fuels has made it one of the most greenhouse gas-intensive economies in East Asia.
Vietnam is actively engaged in efforts to combat climate change, highlighted by the Prime Minister's firm commitment at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.
2050, a lot of policies have been issued and put into effect to realize this ambitious goal
In January 2022, Vietnam enacted Decree 06/2022/ND-CP, mandating greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting facilities to create and implement mitigation plans The National Green Growth Strategy for 2021-2030 aims to reduce GHG emission intensity per GDP unit and promote a greener economy According to the approved National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) for 2050, establishments emitting over 3,000 tCO2e must conduct annual GHG inventories starting in 2022 At COP27, Vietnam committed to a 15.8% reduction in GHG emissions compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, with a target of 43.5% reduction with international support by 2030 However, these ambitious targets have yet to be reflected in local policies and action plans.
Cities contribute over 80% of global GDP while being responsible for 70% of carbon dioxide emissions, highlighting the dual nature of urbanization (World Bank, 2020) With more than half of the world's population now living in urban areas, driven by improved access to education, healthcare, and job opportunities, this trend is projected to rise to 68% by mid-century (United Nations, 2018) However, without effective planning and management, the shift towards urban living presents significant challenges While urbanization itself does not produce emissions, the development and energy consumption patterns of cities do As hubs of political and economic influence, cities play a crucial role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, addressing climate change, and shaping the future of our planet.
Vietnam's urbanization rate is rapidly increasing and is projected to exceed the rural population by 2050, according to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam The country's 85 cities contribute to two-thirds of its total CO2 emissions, highlighting the need for sustainable urban development to meet Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and net-zero commitments Despite the central government's ambitious goals, there are currently no net-zero commitments at the subnational level Therefore, it is essential to develop detailed and localized guidelines for each city, rather than relying solely on a general national mitigation plan.
This study analyzes the current and future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels in Can Tho, a centrally governed city in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, while reviewing national and subnational mitigation policies to identify emission gaps and abatement potentials It will provide tailored recommendations for GHG emission reduction based on the city's specific context The findings will serve as crucial inputs for Can Tho's development of a roadmap and action plan aimed at achieving net zero emissions, in line with the central government's policies.
1.1.2 Research questions, objectives and tasks
The following questions will be addressed in the research:
1 What is the future estimation of GHG emissions of Can Tho under different scenarios?
2 Is the city on track to satisfy the 2030 emission reduction targets of the NDC of Viet Nam, significantly contributing to the net zero targets?
3 What are emission reduction opportunities for the city?
4 What are the strengths and weaknesses of Can Tho to reduce emissions, in alignment with the NDC of Viet Nam and the net-zero target by 2050?
5 What should Can Tho city do to further abate GHG emissions?
Based on the identified research questions, research objectives and tasks are developed and presented in Table 1-1.
Table 1-1 Research objectives and tasks
Identify key features of Can Tho’s emissions
Review and analyze the GHG emission level of Can Tho;
Consolidate relevant data and make comparisons between emissions of Can Tho, other cities and the national
The current emission level of Can Tho city, compared with other cities and the national level;
Track Can Tho’s emission level against the 1.5 o C goal and the net zero target
The Business as Usual (BAU) scenario for Can Tho, based on Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), projected Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), and population growth rates, estimates the city's emissions by 2030 without implementing any mitigation strategies.
Policy scenarios (based on current mitigation policies/programs & targets of Can Tho city and the central government) to
Emission reduction gaps among the scenarios and NDC targets
Objective Task Output stocktake current efforts of the city in emission abatement;
Science-based target (SBT) scenario to set the drastic emission reduction target for the city to be in alignment with the 1.5 o C goal and the net zero target
Analyze emission abatement opportunities of the city and propose appropriate recommendations for the city to reduce its carbon footprint and move towards the net-zero target by 2050
Demonstrate emission abatement potentials of the city;
Analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the city in reducing emissions and achieving the net zero target;
Propose recommendations for Can Tho city to reduce its emissions and move toward a net zero future
Recommendations for Can Tho to reduce emissions, based on potential areas for reduction and the city‘s strengths and weaknesses
1.1.3 Objects and scope of the research
The objects and scope of the research can be defined as follows:
This research analyzes the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels in Can Tho city and aims to develop recommendations for reducing these emissions The study aligns with Vietnam's latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and supports the country's goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
Scope of geographical location: Within the timeframe and scope of this thesis, only one city of Viet Nam will be chosen, which is Can Tho Scope of time:
Emission analysis for the research mainly focuses on the period of 2020-2030, but emission reduction recommendations will go beyond 2030, with a vision to 2050 to cover the net zero target
Figure 1-1 Maps of the study area (Can Tho city, Viet Nam)
1.1.4 The structure of this Thesis
The thesis comprises five chapters, beginning with an overview of global and national efforts to mitigate anthropogenic emissions, emphasizing the importance of sub-national involvement in combating climate change Chapter 2 reviews existing literature on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories and previous research on science-based targets (SBT) and emission reduction potentials, establishing a foundation for the analysis Chapter 3 outlines the research methodology, detailing emission analysis and the creation of three emission scenarios, along with a table of data sources and uncertainty levels for validation In Chapter 4, the results of data analysis reveal emission gaps for Can Tho city across various scenarios and explore further abatement potentials, assessing the city's strengths and weaknesses in implementing reduction strategies Finally, Chapter 5 summarizes key findings and offers recommendations for Can Tho to align with Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and net-zero targets, while also addressing research limitations and suggesting avenues for future studies.
1.1.5 The logical framework of the thesis
Figure 1-2 presents the logical framework of the thesis
Figure 1-2 The logical framework of the thesis
1.1.6 Matrix of learning outcomes for the Master’s Thesis
The expected results of the research are summarized in Table 1-2:
Result 1: Future projection of GHG emission under different scenarios
Result 2: Gaps in local climate & development policies/projects and the net zero target pathway
Result 3: Emission reduction opportunities for the city
Result 4: SWOT of Can Tho to reduce emissions, in alignment with the NDC of Viet Nam and the net-zero target by 2050
Result 5: A set of recommendations for Can Tho city to reduce emissions and move towards net zero
Table 1-2 Matrix of learning outcomes of the Master‘s Thesis
PLO Result 1 Result 2 Result 3 Result 4 Result 5
Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge and methodologies to demonstrate future projection of GHG emission under different scenarios
Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge and methodologies to develop recommendations to reduce emissions
Being able to analyze the GHG emission and project future emission scenarios
Identifying the emission gaps among different scenarios & the net zero pathway
Identifying emission reduction opportunities based on the current and projected emission level as well as socio-economic features of the city
Understanding and developing systematic thinking, necessary knowledge for
Applying knowledge to solve the problems in CC mitigation
Applying knowledge to solve the problems in CC mitigation
PLO5 Having skills of Having skills of Having skills of
Collaboration with individuals, agencies, and organizations both domestically and internationally is essential for addressing climate change (CC) issues effectively.
Having skills of research and development
Having skills of research and development
Having skills of research and development
Dynamic, confident, persistent, enthusiastic, and management
Emphasizing social and community responsibility, professionals in scientific research must uphold ethical standards and adapt to multicultural environments This ensures harmony among stakeholders while promoting corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainable development Additionally, it is crucial to support vulnerable populations affected by climate change and to adhere to legal regulations.
Promoting social responsibility and professional ethics is crucial in scientific research, particularly in adapting to multicultural environments It is essential to maintain harmony among stakeholders, community climate resilience (CCR), and development efforts Upholding strong social morals involves supporting vulnerable populations affected by climate change while ensuring compliance with legal standards.
Emphasizing social and community responsibility, along with professional ethics, is crucial in scientific research It is essential to adapt to multicultural environments and foster harmony among stakeholders, ensuring sustainable development and corporate social responsibility (CSR) Upholding strong social morals includes supporting vulnerable populations affected by climate change and adhering to legal regulations.
PLO Result 1 Result 2 Result 3 Result 4 Result 5
Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change mitigation
Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change mitigation
Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change mitigation
Overview of Can Tho
Can Tho, the fourth largest city in Vietnam, is situated in the Mekong Delta, a region highly susceptible to climate change The city is crucial for the socio-economic development of the Mekong Delta and aims to enhance its significance in the future As of 2021, Can Tho has a population of 1,246,993 and a population density of 884 people per square kilometer, which is three times the national average, ranking it 12th in the country.
Can Tho, one of the 63 provinces and cities in the country, has an urban population of 860,490, representing 70.02% of its total population The latest draft of the city's Master Development Plan projects a 1% annual population growth from 2021 to 2030, anticipating that the population will exceed 1.37 million by 2030.
The Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development of Can Tho City (2021-2030) indicates that the average GRDP growth rate from 2010 to 2019 was 6.6% per year, closely aligning with the Mekong Delta and Vietnam's growth rates of 6.3%, yet trailing behind major cities like Hanoi (7.4%), Ho Chi Minh City (7.7%), Da Nang (7.5%), and Hai Phong (16.1%) The service sector led this growth with an annual rate of 7.3%, while industry and construction grew at 6.4%, and agriculture lagged at 2.1% This trend reflects Can Tho's strategic shift towards high-value sectors, with agriculture's share expected to nearly halve over the next decade By 2030, services are projected to comprise over 50% of Can Tho's GRDP, mirroring national trends and indicating a sustained alignment in economic structure throughout the 2021-2030 period.
Figure 1-3 The economic structure of Can
Source: Can Tho Statistical Year Book 2020
Figure 1-4 The economic structure of
Source: Viet Nam Statistical Year Book 2020
Figure 1-5 The projected economic structure of Can Tho in 2030
Source: Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic
Development of Can Tho City for the period 2021-
Figure 1-6 The projected economic structure of Viet Nam in 2030
Source: Resolution 81/2023/HQ15 on National Master Plan for the period 2021-2030, vision to 2050
According to the forecasted socio-economic indicators for Can Tho, the target annual GRDP growth rate from 2021 to 2030 is set at 9% This projection suggests that Can Tho's GRDP will more than double by 2030, increasing from 89,247 million dongs in 2020 to an estimated 190,555 million dongs In 2020, the commercial and services sector comprised over half of Can Tho's GRDP at 51.27%, followed by industry and construction at 30.84% This trend is anticipated to continue, driven by the sectors' increasing growth rates over the forecast period.
Table 1-3 Forecasted key socio-economic indicators of Can Tho, 2020-2030
Passenger traffic transport demand 1 mil passenger.km 5,300 7,059 9,402 1.77
Freight traffic transport demand 2 mil Tonne.km 867 1,210 1,690 1.95
Source: Can Tho‘s Statistical Yearbook 2021 & Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development of Can Tho
City for the period 2021-2030, vision to 2050
1 Assumingly increase 5.9% per year based on the national average rise in the Environemt Strategic Assessment Report of the National Master Development Plan for the Duration 2021-2030, vision to 2050
2 Assumingly increase 6.9% per year based on the national average rise in the Environemt Strategic Assessment Report of the National Master Development Plan for the Duration 2021-2030, vision to 2050
Can Tho, one of Vietnam's five centrally governed cities, boasts an average GRDP per capita that exceeds the national average, with projections indicating it will surpass 177 million dongs.
By 2030, Can Tho's GRDP per capita is anticipated to more than double compared to 2021, increasing by 2.47 times The city's economic growth is projected at 9% annually, significantly outpacing the population growth of just 1% per year, indicating a shift towards higher value economic models and enhanced technology development Additionally, it is expected that emissions per GRDP will decline during the 2021-2030 period, as the annual GRDP growth rate of approximately 9% will exceed the emission growth rate of 6.1%, according to Vietnam's National Climate Change Strategy.
2022) Meanwhile, the emission per capita of the city under the BAU scenario will increase significantly, due to the modest increase in the number of local residents
Can Tho city is increasingly experiencing the effects of climate change, evidenced by a rise in unpredictable natural disasters such as tropical storms, droughts, and salt intrusion over the past two decades This trend highlights the urgent need for awareness and action in response to the challenges posed by climate change, as outlined in the Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios published by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE).
(2021), if the sea level rises by 100 centimeters, around 56% of the city‘s area will be under water.
LITERATURE REVIEW
GHG emission inventory and analysis in the context of climate change
In total, 196 countries have ratified the Paris Agreement, committing to significant actions aimed at reducing national emissions and adapting to climate change impacts A critical component of this agreement is the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), where each signatory outlines its climate change mitigation targets, policies, and implementation strategies to support the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, tailored to their specific contexts and capabilities According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 to avert severe consequences for humanity and biodiversity.
Tracking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their sources is crucial for developing effective abatement solutions There are two primary methods for inventorying GHG emissions: production-based and consumption-based The production-based inventory, which records emissions within a country's borders, is the most widely used standard for national inventories, as mandated by the IPCC and submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change However, this method may not accurately reflect a nation's carbon footprint, as it attributes emissions to producers without considering consumer behavior In contrast, the consumption-based inventory offers a more comprehensive measurement of GHG emissions, addressing carbon leakages and promoting equitable responsibility among nations Although this approach is more complex to calculate due to the need for data on both domestic and imported goods, it provides a clearer picture of a country's true environmental impact.
City-scale GHG emission inventory and analysis at the global level
While national commitments are important, the active participation of cities is essential for achieving meaningful climate outcomes Cities must leverage their resources and leadership to significantly reduce their carbon footprints in alignment with scientific targets Over the past few decades, there has been a concerted effort globally to analyze emission inventories and develop low-carbon pathways for urban areas However, assessing city-level greenhouse gas emissions poses unique challenges, necessitating a blend of production- and consumption-based methodologies Various tools and protocols have been employed to conduct greenhouse gas emission inventories in cities worldwide.
Comparing emission levels and mitigation efforts among cities has proven challenging due to varying methodologies (Bleischwitz, 2009; Kennedy et al., 2011; Ibrahim et al., 2012) The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40) studied consumption-based emissions in 79 member cities to identify opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions beyond city boundaries (C40, 2018) A comparative analysis of CO2 emissions in 12 megacities across China, South Korea, and Japan aimed to understand emission characteristics and inform low-carbon policies (Sun et al., 2021) Wei et al (2021) evaluated mitigation targets for 167 cities globally, revealing that while Asian cities emit the most carbon overall, developed countries have higher per capita emissions Sovacool & Brown (2010) conducted a comparative analysis of carbon footprints in 12 cities, providing valuable benchmarks for metropolitan carbon emissions Furthermore, Ibrahim et al (2012) highlighted the necessity for a globally agreed GHG emission inventory protocol by comparing six international frameworks.
The Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GPC), developed by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol and released in 2014, provides a comprehensive framework for cities to account for and report their greenhouse gas emissions This protocol has been implemented in over 100 cities worldwide, categorizing urban emissions into three distinct scopes, as illustrated in Figure 2-1 (National League of Cities, 2020).
Figure 2-1 Sources and boundaries of urban GHG emissions
Source: WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol, 2014a
Under this protocol, GHG emissions of cities cover 5 key sectors, including Stationary energy, Transportation, Waste, IPPU and Agriculture, Forestry and Other land use (AFOLU) as in Table 2-1
Table 2-1 Definition of the five emission source sectors of the GPC
Stationary energy All emissions from:
Fuel combustion of stationary sources
Consumption of grid-supplied electricity, steam, heating or cooling
Emissions that are unintentionally released during the production, delivery, and consumption of usable forms of energy
Transportation Fuel combustion for transport vehicles
Grid-supplied electricity for electric vehicles
Waste Emissions from solid waste and wastewater disposed and/or treated
IPPU Emissions from non-energy related industrial activities
AFOLU Emissions resulting from different activities such as in land use changes, methane (CH 4 ) generated during livestock digestion, and the management of nutrients for agricultural purposes
Source: WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol, 2014a
The Bilan Carbone, developed by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency, is a widely-used method for conducting greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories at the city level It employs an emission factor-based methodology similar to the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GPC) but encompasses all direct and indirect emissions, offering a more comprehensive dataset Unlike the GPC, which categorizes emissions into scopes, the Bilan Carbone organizes emissions into ten distinct activity categories while allowing for conversion into GPC protocol sectors.
Most accounting tools utilize a common formula that involves multiplying an emission factor by activity data However, variations in inventory scopes, sector divisions, data quality and availability, along with differing accounting methodologies, complicate the ability to compare emissions across countries and cities.
GHG reduction and science-based targets
Science-based targets can be defined as feasible and measurable targets that are
The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, representing a widely recognized science-based target (Andersen et al., 2021) A climate target is deemed science-based when it aligns with the latest climate research, taking into account historical CO2 levels and socio-economic development (Science Based Targets Network, 2020; Feleki & Moussiopoulos, 2021).
Figure 2-2 Definition of science-based climate targets
Source: Science Based Targets Network, 2020
The Science-based Target Initiative (SBTi) has gained traction in the business community, with over 1,000 global companies adopting it (Bjứrn et al., 2022) In light of this success, various methodologies for cities to establish science-based targets have emerged, including Deadline 2020, One Planet City Challenge (OPCC), and Tyndall Centre Although these methodologies share similarities in emission scopes and scientific rationale, they also exhibit key differences, as outlined in Table 2-2.
Table 2-2 Comparisons among different Science-based Target setting methodologies
Methodology Data input Emission scope
2015 population and population growth until
Scope 1 & 2 Emissions reduction trajectory for the duration of 2016-2050, based on the 2015 level
Focusing on C40 cities, with a possibility to apply to all cities
OPCC Emission inventory as Scope 1 & 2 Reduction targets Applicable to
Methodology Data input Emission scope
Outcome Target users close as 2018 as possible
Human Development Index for per capita 2030, based on 2018 levels all cities
Tyndall Centre Global & city energy- related CO 2 emissions (2013-2017)
CO 2 emissions from aviation, shipping and military (with a projection for 2020-
City energy-related CO 2 emissions (2019)
A city-level carbon budget for CO 2 energy emissions
The trajectory of CO 2 energy emissions until reaching net zero
Applicable to all cities, preferably UK cities
Source: Science Based Targets Network, 2020 & Faria et al, 2020 (consolidated by the author)
The OPCC methodology provides an accessible and straightforward approach for cities, particularly those with limited data (Faria et al., 2020) In contrast, the Deadline 2020 framework focuses on easily obtainable data to create a city-specific emission reduction trajectory, though it is primarily tailored for C40 cities The Tyndall Centre methodology is more complex, concentrating solely on energy-related emissions Cities can choose the most appropriate methodology based on their data availability and specific objectives.
GHG emission inventory & abatement potential analysis in Viet Nam
In Viet Nam, the GHG inventory is usually conducted by the Central Government At the national level, the country has conducted six GHG emission inventories for 1994, 2000,
2010, 2013, 2014 & 2016 As one of the fastest-growing emitters in the region, the emission level of Viet Nam in 2016 tripled the 1994 level, increasing from 103,839.30 to 316,734.96 ktCO 2 eq (MONRE, 2020)
Recent studies in Vietnam highlight significant emission reduction potential across various sectors Roy et al (2022) conducted a life-cycle assessment on the waste-to-electricity process, revealing that the adoption of green and renewable practices can lead to substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings However, they emphasize the necessity for the government to limit or halt the expansion of fossil fuel-fired power plants to ensure future environmental sustainability Additionally, Nguyen et al (2019) analyzed the emission abatement potential of electric vehicles in Phu Quoc, indicating that with the right policy framework, CO2 emissions could be reduced by 17-20% under different scenarios.
Several Vietnamese cities and provinces, including Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Hoi An, Dong Ha, Dong Hoi, Binh Duong, Vinh, Tam Ky, and Can Tho, have conducted greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories with the assistance of international organizations, as reported by the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Environment and Natural Resources (2021) and WWF-Viet Nam.
Ho Chi Minh City, as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in Vietnam, reflects its significant economic growth and population size Energy remains the primary source of emissions across various localities In 2017, JICA assisted the city in developing a GHG emission inventory policy framework and implementing mitigation actions, revealing a potential 17% reduction in emissions compared to business-as-usual scenarios However, there is a lack of research quantifying the emissions reductions from existing mitigation policies and projects at the city level in Vietnam Understanding emissions levels and gaps is crucial for cities to identify opportunities for abatement, highlighting the urgent need for further research in this area.
Emission inventory of Can Tho
In 2019, Can Tho city became a member of the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, committing to significant climate action initiatives This includes enhancing climate resilience and adaptation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and conducting a comprehensive greenhouse gas emission inventory.
In 2019, Nguyen et al (2020) estimated that Ninh Kieu district in Can Tho city emitted a total of 1,069,422 tCO2 equivalent greenhouse gases (GHG), with a per capita emission of 4.17 tCO2 eq, significantly higher than the city average of 3.47 tCO2 eq per person This elevated emission level is attributed to Ninh Kieu's status as the city's economic and tourist hub, characterized by high population density and substantial transportation activity The largest contributor to GHG emissions in the district is electricity consumption, followed by fuel combustion, with cooking gas being the primary source at 94% To mitigate these emissions, it is crucial to implement renewable energy solutions and electrify the cooking sector in the city.
Figure 2-3 Emission of Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho city by sources (tCO 2 eq)
In 2021, Can Tho participated in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) program by WWF-Viet Nam, where it conducted a greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory utilizing the Bilan Carbone Method The total emissions recorded amounted to 4,311,952 tCO2 eq, translating to approximately 3.47 tCO2 eq per capita (WWF, 2022).
In 2020, the Residential sector and Industrial processes were the leading contributors to emissions in Can Tho city, representing 17.2% and 16.9% of total emissions, respectively Notably, electricity consumption accounted for a significant portion of these emissions, with 418,680 tCO2 eq (56.3%) from the Residential sector and 578,754 tCO2 eq (79%) from Industrial processes This highlights the urgent need for electricity conservation, efficiency improvements, and the promotion of renewable energy sources as key strategies for mitigating climate change in Can Tho city.
Figure 2-4 Emission of Can Tho city in 2020 by activity categories (tCO 2 eq)
Recent studies have enhanced our understanding of the city's current emission levels and identified key sectors for intervention However, they lack an analysis of reduction potential and the establishment of suitable abatement targets, which are crucial for the city to lower its carbon footprint in alignment with national and international goals.
METHODOLOGY
Emission analysis
Emission analysis of Can Tho city is conducted mainly based on secondary data from available sources, including the GHG emission inventory report of the city in 2020 (WWF,
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to some variations in socio-economic indicators, which may influence emission inventory results However, these differences are considered minimal, as the "CO2 Emissions of All World Countries" report (Crippa et al., 2022) indicates that Vietnam's total emissions in 2020 were only 0.19% lower than in 2019 This information is crucial for the calculations and analysis in the research.
To provide a comprehensive overview of Can Tho's emissions and support a sectoral approach for emission reduction, total emissions were categorized into five key sectors based on the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories These sectors include Stationary Energy, Transport, Waste, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), utilizing emission data from ten activity categories within the city Emissions from electricity consumption and fuel combustion in stationary activities were allocated to the Stationary Energy sector, while emissions from travel and goods transport were grouped under the Transport sector The Waste sector comprised emissions from End of Life Waste, and emissions from construction and highways were combined with non-energy emissions from Industrial Processes in the IPPU sector Additionally, emissions from agriculture and fishing were classified into AFOLU, with food-related emissions distributed across IPPU (processing), Transport (food transport), and AFOLU (food production).
The author analyzes and consolidates existing data to compare the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels and intensities of Can Tho with other Vietnamese cities and the national average, highlighting Can Tho's unique GHG emission characteristics Due to limited data availability, only cities with existing emission reports are included in the analysis Macroeconomic and population statistics are sourced from local and national statistical yearbooks While GHG emission inventories are compiled in different years, leading to potential data discrepancies, these will be minimized by utilizing real Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) adjusted with the GDP deflator from the World Bank database It is assumed that the variations in emission levels between consecutive years are not substantial.
Emission scenarios establishment
Three emission scenarios are developed and analyzed in this study: BAU, Policy & SBT scenarios
3.2.1 The business as usual scenario
The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario for Vietnam is based on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS), using 2014 as the baseline year with emissions recorded at 284.0 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent The NCCS Technical Report projects that, without mitigation efforts, Vietnam's emissions could rise to 927.9 million tonnes of CO2 eq by 2030 and reach 1,519.3 million tonnes by 2050 This represents an annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2014 to 2030, followed by 3% from 2031 to 2040, and 1.9% from 2041 to 2050.
Can Tho, a unique locality in Vietnam, has a population of approximately 1.24 million, slightly below the national average of 1.55 million as of 2020 However, it is projected that the city's population growth rate will exceed the national average, reaching 1.1% by 2030 compared to the country's 0.73% The economic development of Can Tho aligns with national trends, emphasizing a shift towards the service sector while gradually reducing dependence on agriculture by 2030 The city's emission intensity is comparable to the national level, with 3.47 tCO2 eq/cap in Can Tho and 3.40 tCO2 eq/cap nationwide in 2020 Consequently, it is assumed that Can Tho's total emissions will grow in line with national trends from 2020 to 2050, using 2020 as the baseline year for emission projections.
Can Tho is implementing seven key mitigation policies and projects aimed at reducing emissions, including the Climate Change Response Action Plan (2020), the National Energy Efficiency Programme (Plan No 66/KH-UBND), and the Waste to Power (WTP) plant Additionally, the city is focusing on renewable energy uptake and adhering to Decision No 876/QG-TTg, which promotes the transition to green energy while addressing carbon dioxide and methane emissions from transportation Another significant initiative is Plan No 110/KH-UBND, aimed at further enhancing the city's sustainability efforts.
The renewable energy (RE) development plan for Can Tho city from 2021 to 2025, with a vision extending to 2050, includes the Smart and Energy Efficient City Project (SEECP) While the research aims to minimize redundancy among mitigation policies and initiatives, some overlaps may persist due to insufficient data and information.
The greenhouse gas (GHG) effect of specific policies and projects is determined using the Policy and Action Standard from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol This calculation involves assessing the total net change in GHG emissions, which is derived from the difference between emissions in the policy scenario and those in the baseline scenario (WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol, 2014b).
Potentially-reduced emissions from enhancing energy efficiency are calculated based on
The equation E = ∑ (1) illustrates the total potential reduction of emissions (in tCO2 eq), where rECn signifies the decrease in energy consumption by 2030 through improved energy efficiency This reduction is compared to the projected energy consumption outlined in the 2016 Low-carbon society scenario report by the Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO).
EF n represents the emission factor of fuel n is the consumed fuel (n = 1, 2,…, M)
According to Vietnam's energy statistics from 2015 to 2020, the primary concern regarding energy loss is attributed to electricity loss Consequently, the potential reduction in emissions is calculated based on the savings achieved through decreased electricity loss.
Potentially-reduced emissions of reduced energy loss are calculated based on
Equation: E = Selectricity * EF power grid (2) where E represents the total potentially-reduced amount of emissions (tCO 2 eq)
S electricity represents the saved amount of electricity from reduced energy loss
EF power grid represents the emission factor of the national grid
From 2021 to 2025, electricity consumption in Can Tho is projected to grow at an average rate of 7.7% annually, followed by a 6.4% growth rate from 2026 to 2030 This forecast aligns with Decision No 3486/QD-UBND, issued on December 28, 2018, which approved the electricity development plan for Can Tho city covering the period from 2016 to 2025, with a vision extending to 2035.
The potential reduction in emissions from the expansion of water treatment plants (WTP) is determined using the equation E = EO WTP * EF power grid – EO WTP * EF WTP, where EO WTP indicates the estimated annual electricity output generated by the installed WTP capacity.
The potential reduction in emissions from solar energy deployment can be calculated using the formula: EO solar * EF power grid – EO solar * EF solar energy Here, EO solar refers to the estimated annual electricity output generated by the installed solar capacity.
The emission factor for grid electricity in Vietnam, as outlined in Document No 1278/BDKH-TTBVTOD dated December 31, 2022, reflects the power mix for 2021 and is detailed in Table 3-1 It is important to recognize that as Vietnam's energy mix evolves, particularly with an increased share of renewable energy, the grid power emission factor (EF) may decrease However, due to various uncertainties such as climate conditions and electricity output that could influence the national EF, it is assumed that the grid power emission factor will remain constant for the time being.
The transportation sector's emissions are assessed using a bottom-up approach based on the ASIF model, which considers Activity, modal Structure, Intensity of fuel use, and Fuel carbon content, as outlined by Tran et al (2020) The framework and equations supporting this assessment are illustrated in Figure 3-1.
Figure 3-1 The framework and equations for quantifying emission in the transport sector
(Adapted from Tran et al., 2020)
The Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development of Can Tho City, covering the period from 2021 to 2030 with a vision extending to 2050, projects an annual population growth rate of 1% until 2030 Additionally, the modal split of vehicles is derived from research conducted by Nguyen et al.
In 2021, due to data limitations, the average travel coefficient and vehicle load factor for Can Tho are assumed to align with those of Hanoi, as reported by Tran et al (2020) However, the bus load factor in Can Tho is estimated to be about 25% of Hanoi's, reflecting the city's lower bus coverage The average travel distance for Can Tho is adjusted downward from Hanoi's figures, while energy consumption data for motorbikes and cars is sourced from Tran et al (2020) For buses, energy consumption is based on the standards outlined in Circular 65/2014/TT-BGTVT, which establishes economic and technical norms for public bus transport Emission factors for fuel are also referenced from this source.
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, outlined in Table 3-1, provide a framework for calculating the potential reduction in emissions through an increased modal share of public transport.
Potentially-reduced emissions from increasing the modal share of public transport
Emission abatement potential analysis
This article examines Can Tho's potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by analyzing the Energy, Transport, and Waste sectors, as outlined in the Global Protocol for Community-scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (GPC) It focuses on both the current emission levels and the reduction potentials within these sectors to enhance existing policies and set more ambitious GHG reduction targets Notably, this study does not cover emission abatement opportunities related to Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) or Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU).
Emission factor
The emission factors and unit conversion factors used in this research to calculate the emission amount are presented in the tables below
Energy carrier Unit Emission factor
Electricity (from national power grid) MWh 0.7221
Global Warming Potential
This research focuses on greenhouse gases, primarily Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous Oxide (N2O), while also considering Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the greenhouse gas emission inventory All these gases are expressed in terms of CO2 equivalent based on their global warming potential over a 100-year time horizon.
GHGs Time horizon of 100 years
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
Data sources and certainty level
Sources of all data used in this research are presented in Table 3-3 below
Table 3-3 Data sources and certainty level
No Data Data source Note
Statistical yearbook of cities/ provinces in corresponding years
Tho, Da Nang, Tam Ky,
Vinh, Hoi An, Dong Ha
GHG emission inventory reports carried out by WWF- Viet Nam and the Departments of Environment and Natural Resources (DONREs) of the cities/provinces
Data for the inventories were gathered from pertinent departments through official channels, specifically local Departments of Natural Resources and Environment (DONREs), as well as from the statistical yearbooks of cities and provinces However, it is important to acknowledge that some uncertainties exist due to the varying availability of data.
GHG emission inventory report of HCMC carried out by HCMC‘s DONRE
Data for the inventories were collected from relevant departments of HCMC, but some uncertainties should be accepted due to the availability of data
4 Emission per cap data of
6 National emission level Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDC) of Viet Nam (version 2022) &
7 Electricity consumption of Can Tho
8 Emission factor of electricity grid
Decision No 1278/BDKH- TTBVTOD of the Department of Climate Change, MONRE dated 31 December 2022
I don't know!
10 Emission factors of fuels Decision No 2626/QD-
2022 on List of emission factors for GHG inventories
11 Energy conversion factor Document No 3505/BCT-
KHCN dated 19 April 2011 on List of major energy users
Draft Master Plan for Socio- Economic Development of Can Tho City for the period 2021-2030, vision to 2050
The latest draft of the Master Plan, currently undergoing the approval process, includes data that is expected to remain largely stable, with only minor changes anticipated for key indicators.
Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Can Tho emission in 2020 by 5 key GPC sectors
Can Tho city's emissions are categorized into five key sectors, with Stationary Energy being the largest contributor, emitting 2,744,553 tCO2 eq and accounting for 63.6% of total emissions The Transport sector follows, contributing 757,380 tCO2 eq Emissions from the AFOLU and Waste sectors are nearly equal, at 6.6% and 6.4%, respectively Lastly, the IPPU sector has the smallest share, responsible for 5.8% of emissions, which is equivalent to 250,609 tCO2 eq.
Figure 4-1 The total emission of Can Tho city in 2020 IPPC‘s 5 sectors (tCO 2 eq)
GHG emission level of Can Tho in comparison with other cities and national level35
Figure 4-2 depicts the relationship between per capita emissions and per capita GRDP across various cities in Vietnam, with dot size indicating city population Although year-to-year data discrepancies limit direct comparisons, a general correlation suggests that per capita emissions may increase with GRDP and population Interestingly, Can Tho's per capita emissions are comparable to those of Dong Ha, Dong Hoi, Tam Ky, and Da Nang, despite its higher population and GRDP This anomaly can be attributed to the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020, which reduced emissions in sectors like transport Additionally, Can Tho's use of advanced appliances, likely linked to higher income and effective mitigation strategies, may further lower its emissions relative to other cities However, the lack of comprehensive data and variations in emission inventory years mean these comparisons are somewhat correlative.
Figure 4-2 Per capita emission, per capita GRDP, and population of cities in Viet Nam
Source: Statistical yearbooks of HCM (2013, 2016, 2018), Da Nang (2016), Can Tho (2020), Binh Duong
(2018), Quang Nam (2016, 2020), Nghe An (2018), Quang Ngai (2016) and Quang Binh (2018), JICA (2021)
The per capita emission of Viet Nam has steadily increased for the past decade, then experienced a slight fall in 2020 and 2021, assumably due to the impacts of the COVID-
During the 19 pandemic, per capita emissions in nearly all cities surpassed the national average, with Can Tho city exhibiting emissions closely aligned with the country's overall levels.
Figure 4-3 Per capita emission of cities vs national level (tCO 2 eq)
Source: Statistical yearbooks of HCM (2013, 2016, 2018), Da Nang (2016), Can Tho (2020), Binh Duong
(2018), Quang Nam (2016, 2020), Nghe An (2018), Quang Ngai (2016) and Quang Binh (2018), JICA (2021),
Emission scenarios
According to the NCCS, Vietnam's emissions are projected to grow at a rate of 6.1% until 2030, followed by 3.0% from 2031 to 2040, and 1.9% from 2041 to 2050 under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario This growth underscores the need for advanced technologies and heightened public awareness regarding sustainability Despite a slowing emission rate, without mitigation efforts, Vietnam's emissions are expected to rise significantly due to economic development, potentially reaching 1.5 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, nearly three times the 2020 levels Emission projections by sector under the BAU scenario are detailed in Table 4-1.
Table 4-1 National emission in the BAU scenario (mtCO 2 eq)
Year Energy Agriculture LULUCF Waste IPPU Total
Can Tho's economic structure closely mirrors that of the nation, with only a slight difference in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity—3.47 tCO2 eq/cap for Can Tho compared to 3.40 tCO2 eq/cap for the country in 2020 Consequently, the projected future GHG emissions for Can Tho will be based on the 2020 emission levels, applying the same increase rates anticipated for the national emissions, under the assumption that Can Tho's emissions will grow in tandem with the country's.
Table 4-2 Can Tho‘s emission in the BAU scenario (mtCO 2 eq)
Year Energy Transport AFOLU Waste IPPU Total
Year Energy Transport AFOLU Waste IPPU Total
Can Tho's emissions are projected to rise significantly from 2020 to 2050, reaching 7.79 mtCO2 eq by 2030 and 12.68 mtCO2 eq by 2050 without any mitigation measures, representing increases of 1.8 and 2.9 times the 2020 levels, respectively However, the emission intensity per Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is expected to decline, as the city's GRDP grows at a faster rate of 9% per year compared to the emission increase of 6.1% per year.
Figure 4-4 Projected Can Tho‘s emissions for the period 2022-2030 (mtCO 2 eq)
This article outlines the mitigation actions and commitments of Can Tho city from 2020 to 2030, as developed by the author in collaboration with the Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO), focusing exclusively on current targets and excluding those from previous periods.
4.3.2.1 Can Tho’s Action Plan for Climate Change Response (2020)
In its 2020 Draft Action Plan for Climate Change Response, Can Tho aims to reduce carbon emissions by 246,237 tCO2 eq by 2030, with significant reductions targeted in the stationary energy and transportation sectors The city plans to implement a smart lighting system and enhance energy efficiency in public buildings to address emissions from stationary energy Additionally, Can Tho will develop an electric vehicle system for tourism and expand its bus network to improve transportation sustainability To tackle waste sector emissions, the city will enhance wastewater treatment and reduce solid waste in alignment with the national solid waste management strategy.
4.3.2.2 Plan No 66/KH-UBND on implementing the National Energy Efficiency Programme, dated 22 March 2021
On March 22, the Can Tho People's Committee announced Plan No 66/KH-UBND to initiate the next phase of the National Energy Efficiency Programme, following the successful implementation of the previous energy efficiency program.
2021 Accordingly, the city sets the target to save 6% of total energy consumption by
2025 and 7% by 2030 This target can be translated into the absolute value of reduced emissions by equation (1)
With the projected energy consumption by energy carriers from the Low-carbon Society Scenario Report (CCCO, 2017), the potentially-reduced emissions are presented in Table 4-3 below
Table 4-3 Potentially reduced GHG emissions from total energy consumption reduction of Can Tho city in 2030
Energy type Projected energy consumption amount in 2030 (TOE)
Reduced energy consumption amount based on the effect of Plan No.66/KH-UBND (TOE)
Potentially reduced GHG emissions (tCO 2 eq)
Energy type Projected energy consumption amount in 2030 (TOE)
Reduced energy consumption amount based on the effect of Plan No.66/KH-UBND (TOE)
Potentially reduced GHG emissions (tCO 2 eq)
Source: Can Tho Climate Change Coordination Office, 2017
Can Tho aims to reduce energy loss to below 2.5% by 2030, as part of its commitment to energy efficiency According to Vietnam's energy statistics from 2015 to 2020, the primary source of energy loss in the country is electricity In 2020, Can Tho's energy loss rate was recorded at 3.12%, as per Decision No 3486/QD-UBND, which outlines the city's electricity development plan for 2016-2025 with a vision extending to 2035 This initiative targets a reduction of 0.62% in energy savings, leading to a significant decrease in emissions associated with energy loss.
The projected electricity output of Can Tho in 2030 is extracted from Decision No 3486/QD-UBND The absolute amount of reduced emissions from reduced energy loss are presented in Table 4-4
Table 4-4 Potentially reduced GHG emissions from reduced energy loss rate
Potentially reduced GHG emissions (tCO 2 eq)
This 7.5-MW WTP plant was operated in December 2018 According to statistics of the Environmental Protection Sub-department, DONRE of Can Tho, the WTP plant has a treatment capacity of 550,27 tonnes of domestic waste per day and generates around 56,727 MWh/year The potentially reduced amount of emission from this project comes from the difference between the emission factors of WTP and the national power grid, which is calculated based on equation (3)
Potentially reduced amount of emission = 56,727 * 0.7221 – 56,727 * 0.101 = 35,233 tCO 2 eq
As of the end of 2020, Can Tho Power Company reported that 1,547 households and 98 enterprises had installed solar photovoltaics (PV), totaling a capacity of 84,778 kWp This includes 12,062 kWp from residential users and over 72,716 kWp from businesses The estimated solar energy generation capacity in Can Tho is 1,400 kWh/kWp, resulting in an impressive total of 118,689 MWh The shift to solar energy also significantly reduces emissions, as evidenced by the lower emission factors of solar energy compared to the national power grid.
Potentially reduced amount of emission = 118,689 * 0.7221 – 118,689 * 0.085 = 75,617 tCO 2 eq
4.3.2.5 Decision No 876/QG-TTg of the Prime Minister dated July 22, 2022 on approving the action program for transition to green energy and mitigation of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from transportation
To achieve net-zero emissions in the transport sector by 2050, the Prime Minister has approved Decision No 876/QG-TTG 2022, which outlines an action program focused on transitioning to green energy and reducing carbon dioxide and methane emissions The program aims to improve energy efficiency and promote the adoption of electricity and clean fuels in transportation by 2030, with a goal of fully electrifying or converting all vehicles, equipment, and infrastructure to clean fuels by 2050 Specific targets have been established for various transportation modes across five centrally-governed cities, including Can Tho.
Can Tho city aims to boost its public transport modal split by 20% by 2030, aligning with other centrally-governed cities This target's impact is assessed using a specific equation.
Table 4-5 Can Tho population projection
Table 4-6 Can Tho‘s average travel coefficient, vehicle load factor & average travel distance by type of vehicle (Tran et al., 2020)
Average travel coefficient (trip/ person/ day.night)
Vehicle load factor (person/vehicle)
Motorbike Car Bus Motorbike Car Bus
Nguyen et al (2021) report that the current modal split for transportation is dominated by motorbikes at 85.9%, followed by cars at 7.5% and buses at a mere 0.1% To achieve a targeted 20% modal share for buses, it is projected that the shares of motorbikes and cars will decrease to 69.5% and 4%, respectively.
Table 4-7 Energy consumption of vehicles
Vehicle Type of fuel Energy consumption
Table 4-8 Potentially reduced emission from an increased modal share of public transport (buses) in Can Tho
Emissions occurred with current modal share (tCO 2 eq)
Emissions occurred with projected modal share (tCO 2 eq)
Potentially reduced emission (tCO 2 eq)
4.3.2.6 Plan No 110/KH-UBND dated 21 May 2021 on renewable energy (RE) development in Can Tho city for the period of 2021-2025
In May 2021, the Can Tho People's Committee launched Plan No 11/KH-UBND to enhance renewable energy (RE) deployment, addressing rising energy demands, ensuring energy security, and minimizing greenhouse gas emissions to protect the environment The plan sets ambitious targets to elevate the RE share in the total primary energy supply to 4% by 2025, which includes the installation of 100 MWp of solar power, 7.5 MW of wind turbine power (WTP), and 20 MW of biomass energy.
Can Tho currently boasts a total solar capacity of 84,778 kWp, with an additional planned capacity of 15,222 kWp, translating to 21,311 MWh Notably, the 7.5 MW WTP capacity is excluded to prevent overlap with the calculations in Subsection 4.3.2.3 In Vietnam, the capacity factor for biomass energy is approximately 80%, according to The World Bank.
2018), therefore, 20 MW biomass is approximately 21,024 MWh per year As a result, the potentially reduced amount of GHG emissions from these targets is presented in Table 4-9 (Equation 6 & 7)
Table 4-9 Potentially reduced emissions from Plan No 110/KH-UBND, 21st May 2021
EF of the national power grid (tCO 2 eq/MWh)
EF of energy source (tCO 2 eq/MWh)
Potentially reduced emissions (tCO 2 eq) Additional solar power 21,311 0.7221 0.085 13,577
4.3.2.7 Smart and Energy Efficient City Project
Scenario comparison
Three emissions scenarios have been developed, indicating that both the Business As Usual (BAU) and Policy scenarios show an upward trend in emissions for Can Tho from 2020 to 2030 To align with the Science-Based Targets (SBT) and the 1.5°C goal, the city must reduce its emissions to 2.32 mtCO2 eq over the next decade This ambitious target requires a 70.2% reduction compared to the BAU scenario by 2030, significantly exceeding the national NDC targets of 15.8% unconditionally and 43.5% conditionally.
The comparison of emission levels across three scenarios from 2020 to 2030 reveals that the Policy scenario is projected to meet the new unconditional NDC target, achieving a reduction of approximately 1.32 mtCO2e, which represents a 16.9% decrease compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario This reduction is attributed to the alignment of sub-national mitigation policies with national guidelines It is important to note that most of these policies were enacted in 2021 and 2022 and have not yet incorporated the updated NDC Consequently, Can Tho has set more ambitious targets and committed to more aggressive actions than the national average reflected in the previous NDC, indicating that the potential for further emission reductions may increase once all policies are updated.
Despite the potential for revised policies to reduce emissions by 2.07 mtCO2 eq and meet the conditional Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target, Can Tho's emissions remain significantly below the Science-Based Targets (SBT) carbon budget for 2030 Specifically, there is an emission gap of 2.08 mtCO2 eq under the conditional NDC and 4.23 mtCO2 eq in the policy scenario This highlights the urgent need for the city to intensify its efforts in reducing emissions rapidly.
Figure 4-7 Emission gaps between scenarios in 2030 (tCO 2 eq)
GHG emission reduction potential of Can Tho
Can Tho is poised for significant solar energy development, benefiting from approximately 2,100 to 2,500 sunshine hours annually, which translates to around 2,000 kWh per square meter (Le, 2016) The city's solar power potential is estimated to reach 1,100 MWp, providing up to 70% of its electricity needs, a figure that could increase tenfold with the implementation of dual-use solar technology (Brohm & Nguyen, 2018) According to Plan No 110/KH-UBND dated May 21, 2021, Can Tho has outlined its renewable energy development goals for 2021-2025.
Can Tho has a significant solar energy potential, estimated at 100 MWp (approximately 140,000 MWh), which is currently underutilized The city's technical capacity for solar energy deployment indicates that there is substantial room for growth This aligns with Decision No 500/QD-TTg, which approves the National Power Development Plan, emphasizing the need for increased solar energy development in the region.
The PDP8 plan for 2021-2030, with a vision extending to 2050, aims to increase solar energy capacity by 4,100 MW by 2030, ultimately reaching between 168,594 and 189,294 MW by 2050 This initiative underscores the nation's commitment to transitioning to a more sustainable energy system, emphasizing the importance of solar and other renewable sources To align with national power development goals and maximize its abundant solar resources, the city must accelerate the adoption of solar energy, significantly reducing emissions in the process Each megawatt of solar energy deployed can save up to 892 tons of CO2 equivalent.
The Environmental Protection Sub-department of Can Tho DONRE reports that the local waste treatment plant has a daily capacity of 550.27 tons, amounting to 200,849 tons annually, which represents 59% of the total domestic solid waste processed in the region, as outlined in the Draft Strategic Environmental Assessment by the Can Tho People's Committee.
2022), the domestic solid waste of the city will increase to nearly 748,250 tons/year by
By 2030, the Can Tho WTP plant is projected to double its capacity to 15 MW, significantly contributing to waste management solutions and reducing carbon emissions by approximately 35,233 tCO2 equivalent.
Can Tho city, under Plan No 66/KH-UBND dated March 22, 2021, aims to achieve a 6% reduction in total energy consumption by 2025 and 7% by 2030, which are lower than the targets set in the National Energy Efficiency Programme Phase 3 (VNEEP 3) To enhance emission reductions, it is crucial to establish higher energy efficiency goals and enforce stricter energy-saving measures If Can Tho city increases its targets to 6% and 9% energy savings for the periods of 2020-2025 and 2026-2030, respectively, it could potentially prevent approximately 270,674 tCO2 equivalent emissions.
In alignment with Decision No 888/QD-TTg issued by the Prime Minister on July 25, 2022, Vietnam aims to adopt 100% E5 gasoline by 2030 to mitigate emissions from the transport sector However, this initiative has yet to be integrated into Can Tho's policies E5 gasoline, an ethanol-gasoline blend containing up to 5% ethanol, is recognized as a greener alternative, as it does not produce additional carbon emissions like traditional fossil fuels The use of E5 gasoline is projected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1.7% compared to conventional petrol, highlighting its environmental benefits.
In 2019, Ninh Kieu District's petrol consumption resulted in greenhouse gas emissions totaling 129,733 tCO2 equivalent, based on a consumption of 990.8 TJ (Nguyen et al., 2022) Assuming that Ninh Kieu's petrol usage reflects the city average, the total GHG emissions from petrol consumption across all eight administrative units in Can Tho for the same year would amount to approximately 1,037,864 tCO2 equivalent, indicating a significant environmental impact.
In Can Tho, the annual carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are estimated at 1,041,808 tCO2 eq, reflecting a growth rate of 0.38% according to the Draft Strategic Environmental Assessment by the Can Tho People's Committee (2022) If E5 gasoline consumption aligns with the national average of 32% (Tuoi Tre Online, 2021), a complete transition to E5 gasoline could potentially reduce emissions by approximately 11,998 tCO2 eq.
E10 gasoline is anticipated to be available for commercial use soon, with an estimated 2% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to E5, according to the United Kingdom Government (2020) and Pham et al (2021).
4.5.2.2 Promoting the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs)
Can Tho city must consider transitioning from traditional vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) as public transport development takes time The Vietnamese government has introduced incentives, including a three-year exemption from registration fees for battery-powered EVs and a 50% reduction for the following two years, as outlined in Decree No 10/2022/ND-CP Additionally, a reduced excise tax rate of 1-3% for EVs will be in effect from March 2022 to February 2027, promoting EV adoption The shift to EVs is expected to significantly lower emissions in the transport sector, with studies indicating that GHG emissions from EVs are 17-30% lower than those from petrol and diesel vehicles If Can Tho's fossil fuel-based transport system, projected to emit 1.43 mtCO2 eq by 2030, converts 20% of its conventional vehicles to EVs, it could reduce emissions by approximately 290,000 tCO2 eq.
The Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development of Can Tho City, covering 2021-2030 with a vision to 2050, highlights a slight increase in domestic solid waste, now ranging from 920 to 950 tons per day In contrast, industrial and hazardous medical waste is escalating at a rate of 10% annually Waste separation is not practiced in Can Tho, with domestic solid waste collection rates at 85% in urban areas and 60% in rural regions Approximately 59% of the collected solid waste is incinerated for electricity generation, while the remainder is disposed of in 10 landfills throughout the city.
The waste sector in Can Tho contributes to 6.4% of the city's greenhouse gas emissions, totaling 276,771 tCO2 equivalent Notably, methane emissions from landfills are the primary greenhouse gas in this sector, possessing a global warming potential that is 25 times greater than that of carbon dioxide.
CO 2 on a 100-year timescale (IPCC, 2007) Therefore, addressing the waste sector from waste will significantly contribute to the abatement efforts
Can Tho city generates an average of 125,992 m³ of domestic wastewater daily, totaling approximately 45,987,080 m³ annually, with projections indicating an increase to 92,029,275 m³ per year by 2030, as outlined in the Draft Master Plan for Socio-Economic Development Currently, only 25% of this wastewater is treated at the Cai Sau wastewater treatment plant, which has a capacity of 30,000 m³ per day Effective wastewater treatment can potentially reduce greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater by about one-third.
As a result, if the city can increase its wastewater treatment to 50% by 2030, it can reduce around half of wastewater-related emissions
The summary of further emission reduction potential is presented in Table 4 - 13
Table 4-13 Summary of further emission reduction potential of Can Tho city
Sector Action Potentially reduced amount of emissions Energy Solar energy development 892 tCO 2 eq / MWh
Extend the WTP capacity 35,233 tCO 2 eq Enhanced energy efficiency in line with the national targets (6%-9%)
Transport Convert gasoline to 100% E5 11,998 tCO 2 eq
Convert 20% of traditional vehicles to electric vehicles
Waste Increase its wastewater treatment to
Emission reduction and net zero targets by 2050: strengths, weaknesses,
To gain a comprehensive understanding of the internal and external factors influencing Can Tho city's ability to achieve emission reduction and net zero targets, a quick SWOT analysis was conducted This analysis aims to provide tailored recommendations that align with the city's specific conditions and capacities.
Besides reduction potentials, such as abundant solar resources, Can Tho has some advantages in reducing GHG emissions and moving towards the net zero target
Can Tho is recognized as a leader in climate change response in Vietnam, actively implementing various strategies and programs The city is part of the project aimed at developing Vietnamese cities to address climate change (Decision No 438/QD-TTg for 2021-2030) and joined the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy in 2019, committing to ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing sustainable energy access To further its climate goals, Can Tho has introduced several policies, including Plan No 200/KH-UBND for Green Growth (2021-2030), which aims to restructure the economy and promote sustainability while striving for carbon neutrality and contributing to global efforts to limit temperature rise.
01 April 2022 approving the Climate Change Response Action Plan for the period 2021-
By 2030, Can Tho aims for significant emission reductions by establishing practical targets based on a thorough emissions inventory This includes decreasing emissions from the transport and agricultural sectors while promoting the rapid adoption of renewable energy and fuels Numerous plans and projects have been initiated, as detailed in Table 4-10, demonstrating the city's strong political commitment to reducing its carbon footprint and fostering conducive conditions for effective mitigation efforts.
4.6.1.2 Organizational Structure for climate change response
Can Tho is one of the few regions in Vietnam with a dedicated Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO), established in 2011 with support from the Can Tho People's Committee and the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Now part of the Can Tho Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DONRE), the CCCO employs a dedicated staff member responsible for coordinating climate change adaptation and mitigation projects, enhancing collaboration with external agencies and local stakeholders This exclusive office structure enables Can Tho to effectively develop and implement comprehensive climate change policies, unlike other provinces with only part-time roles Additionally, the CCCO plays a crucial role in mobilizing funding for climate-related activities.
4.6.2.1 Asynchronous and insufficient policy framework
The current policies and targets in Can Tho are inconsistent and difficult to navigate, with overlapping or conflicting goals within the same sector For instance, Decision No 3522/QĐ-UBND from November 2015 sets a public transport modal share target of 34%-45%, while Decision No 876/QG-TTg from July 2022 calls for a lower target of 20% as part of the green energy transition program Additionally, Plan No 200/KH-UBND outlines an action plan for green growth from 2021 to 2030, further complicating the alignment of transportation policies.
By 2030, Can Tho aims to achieve a 5% modal share for public transport, as outlined in the "2050 in Can Tho" initiative dated September 22, 2022 Additionally, the city's Low Carbon Transformation in the Energy Sector project sets a renewable energy goal of 12,000 MW of solar power by 2030 This aligns with Plan No 110/KH-UBND, established on May 21, 2021, focusing on renewable energy development in Can Tho from 2021 to 2030.
By 2025, the target is set at 100 MWp, which translates to approximately 140,000 MWh per year This inconsistency in policy may stem from outdated regulations and insufficient collaboration between governmental agencies, as the development planning for the transport sector is managed by the Department of Transport, while the Action Plan for Green Growth is overseen by the Department of Investment and Planning.
The current climate change mitigation policies in Can Tho are outdated, as they rely on the previous Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) This indicates a need for an updated Climate Change Action Plan that aligns with current environmental goals and strategies.
The city's Action Plan for Green Growth, established in 2020, has not been updated to align with the more ambitious mitigation targets set by the NDC 2022 version This plan is fundamentally based on Vietnam's Green Growth Strategy, aiming to achieve a reduction of 15% to 30% in emission intensity per GRDP compared to the 2014 levels.
The city has not conducted an inventory for 2014, resulting in a lack of baseline data to effectively localize its emissions reduction goals for 2030 and 2050 and monitor progress Moreover, the use of intensity targets instead of absolute targets complicates the city's ability to ensure overall emissions reductions, as these targets are not binding (Donovan, 2019).
Can Tho's Climate Change Action Plan highlights that 16 of its 17 missions and activities related to mitigation rely heavily on international financial support for implementation This dependency may hinder the city's ability to take decisive and effective mitigation actions.
Net zero refers to the balance between anthropogenic emissions released into the atmosphere and those absorbed Achieving this target requires enhancing sequestration capacity, particularly in the Forestry sector, which needs to absorb at least 185 mtCO2 eq by 2050 for Viet Nam to reach net zero emissions However, Can Tho lacks natural forests and must depend on its limited urban tree area for carbon sequestration, making it more challenging for the city to balance greenhouse gas emissions compared to other regions with larger forested areas.
Can Tho, a centrally-managed Class-I municipality, benefits from prioritized financial support from the central government for infrastructure development and climate change initiatives Its active involvement in various international programs enhances the city's network, opening up collaboration opportunities and additional funding sources These factors are anticipated to enable Can Tho to secure the necessary resources for investing in low-carbon technologies and sustainable energy solutions Furthermore, the growth in local revenues positions the city favorably compared to lower-income areas, allowing for greater funding allocation towards climate action efforts.
Can Tho boasts significant solar energy potential, with an estimated output of up to 1,100 MWp, which could satisfy 70% of the city's electricity needs Additionally, the city has abundant resources for biogas production from animal manure and biomass from agricultural residues, supporting a shift towards a low-carbon energy system and reducing emissions Furthermore, with the upcoming Vietnamese carbon market set to launch under Decree 06/2022/ND-CP, the opportunity to generate carbon credits from renewable energy initiatives presents a valuable chance for Can Tho to offset its emissions and work towards achieving net-zero targets.
4.6.4.1 The impacts of climate change
Can Tho faces significant risks from climate change, including rising sea levels and extreme weather, jeopardizing its sustainability objectives and socio-economic growth These challenges may intensify existing issues like poverty, migration, and infrastructure decline, undermining the city’s resilience and demanding additional resources for effective management Consequently, the effectiveness of climate change response strategies and investments could be compromised.