The impact of forest plantation development policies on afforestation households in backan province, vietnam

The impact of forest plantation development policies on afforestation households in BacKan province, Vietnam ABSTRACT Since the emergence of innovations in forest plantation development

越南北干省人工林发展政策对造林家庭户的影响 The impact of forest plantation development policies on afforestation households in BacKan province, Vietnam

DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT

Author, certify that:

The work in this thesis is the result of my own field survey, and this thesis does not include material that has been accepted for the other degree or diploma in any university or other institution

This thesis does not include any material previous that has been published or written by another researcher, except where due references has been made in the thesis

I declare that data was collected and analyzed throughout the course of the research following to the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Bac Kan province and supervisor requirements of Beijing Forestry University

In the future, there is no part of this thesis will be used in a submission in my name, for any other degree in other university without the prior approval of Beijing Forestry University

This thesis contains those papers that have been published by author or paper which prepared for publication, all of them has been co-authored agreed

摘要 越南人工林发展政策不断创新，《土地法》、《林业保护与发展法》、《林地分配政策》、《越南林业发展战略（2006-2020 年）》等法律法规和政策文件相继颁布实施。由此，越南北部山区逐步建立并扩大了人工商品林种植规模，其

中 具 有 代 表 性 的 主 要 树 种 为 马 占 相 思 树 （ Acacia mangium Willd ） 、 桉 树

（Eucalyptus urophylla S.T Blake & Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehn）和桂南木莲

（Manglietia conifera Dandy）。本研究旨在从造林行为、造林经济效益评估和造林户家庭收入三个视角，分析越南人工林发展政策对该国北部山区造林户的影响。 本文选择了越南北干省巴贝和纳里地区 6 个社区的 360 个农户作为研究对象，其中造林户 287 户和未造林户 73 户；通过实地调查，获取一手资料；采用描述统计和计量分析相结合的研究方法，分析了农户的造林行为和农户家庭收入现状及其影响因素；采用净现值法（NPV）、内部收益率法（IRR）和效益成本比法

（BCR），分析了造林经济效益；探析了人工林政策对农户造林行为、收益和家庭收入的影响，进而提出了对策建议。

研究结果表明：第一，户主文化程度、家庭规模、家庭土地持有规模、土地永久性所有权、非农就业、信贷获得能力对农户造林行为具有显著影响，而家庭社会经济特征、地块到道路或市场中心的距离、造林经验、林业推广人员每年到访家庭的天数和家庭年总收入等对造林行为没有显著影响。比较而言，农户近年来造林行为受到能否得到林业发展政策支持的影响程度大，鲜有考虑生态因素。第二，采用 6%的折现率，对马占相思树、桉树和桂南木莲三个树种进行了造林成本效益分析，结果表明桉树产生的净现值最高，桂南木莲产生的内部收益率和效益成本比最大。第三，得到政策支持的农户从轮伐期为七年的人工商品林中得到了正向财务回报，而未得到政策支持的农户则没有得到正向财务回报。第四，家庭成员多、土地面积大、土地权益有保障、外出务工、有能力获得信贷的农户较其他家庭更有可能参与发展人工林。第五，在人工林发展政策下农户的生活收入支出、资产价值和营林收入均增加，人工林发展政策对农户家庭福利产生积极影响。

本研究为人工林发展政策的影响及其影响机制提供了重要的实证证据，有助于为制定人工林发展政策提供决策参考依据，帮助减少阻碍农户获得土地和财政

关键词：政策，人工林发展政策，人工林，影响，造林户

The impact of forest plantation development policies on afforestation households in BacKan province, Vietnam

ABSTRACT

Since the emergence of innovations in forest plantation development policies such as the Land Law, law of forest protection and development, forest land allocation policy, Vietnam forestry development strategy for the 2006-2020 period, etc Forest plantations for commercial purposes have been established and more expanded in Northern mountainous region of Vietnam The major tree

species grew in this area were Acacia mangium Willd, Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus urophylla S.T Blake

× Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehn), and Manglietia conifera Dandy This study aims to understand

the impact of forest plantation development policies on afforestation households on three aspects as analyze behavior establishment plantation, assess economic performance and impact of forest plantation development policies on afforestation household welfare in study area

Based on a field survey from 360 households (include 287 afforestation households and 73 households had not afforestation activities) from six communities in Ba Be and Na Ri district of Bac Kan province of Vietnam Results analysis revealed that households head education level, household size, size of household landholding, ownership of permanent land, off-farm work, ability access to credit were the important factors that affected to decision establish forest plantation of households

In contrary, those factors such as household‘s socio-economic characteristics, distance of the land plots to a road or market center, experience planted forest, and number of days per year in which forestry extension workers visited the household and the annual total household income were no effects on households‘ forest plantation decisions The results implicated that, in recent years, household‘s decisions regarding whether to plant forests seem to base primarily on support from forest plantation development policies rather than ecological concerns On the other hand, to explore the economic performance of plantations of afforestation households based on policies support for

three trees sp: A.mangium, Eucalyptus and M.conifera, cost benefit analysis was employed to

examine net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit cost ratio (BCR) on the

basis of an annual discount rate of 6% The results showed that Eucalyptus generated the highest NPV but A.mangium generated the greatest IRR and BCR; afforestation households earned positive

financial returns from forest plantations with seven-year rotations than did not receive support household groups Furthermore, the statistical analysis revealed that afforestation households with more member family, large land size, secure on land rights, off-farm work, ability access to credit have probability participate on forest plantation development policies than other household groups Results from PSM analysis also indicated that forest plantations development policies have a positive impact on the afforestation household welfare through increasing their living expenditure, income, assets value and forest plantation income

These findings provide important empirical evidences of the policy factors and special is the

mechanisms may be help through minimizing the factors that hinder afforestation household access

to land and finance resources, improve capacity participation in non-farm activities as well as help households participate more in agricultural extension activities On the other hand, this study also help aware the importance of forest plantation development policies when its not only aim significant economic but also ecological and environmental benefits for sustainable development of rural area of Bac Kan province in particular and Vietnam in general

Keywords: Policy ， forest plantation policy ， Forest plantation ， impacts ，

afforestation households

目录

摘要 I ABSTRACT III

1 引言 1

1.1.研究背景 1

1.2.研究目的与意义 4

1.2.1.研究目的 4

1.2.2.研究意义 5

1.3.研究问题与假设 6

1.3.1.研究问题 6

1.3.2.研究假设 6

1.4.研究方法 7

1.4.1.研究区域选择与概况 7

1.4.2.研究方法 10

1.5.研究思路 22

1.6.研究内容 24

1.7.研究价值与创新点 26

1.7.1.研究价值 26

1.7.2 研究创新点 26

2 文献综述与理论基础 28

2.1.概念界定 28

2.1.1 人工林与家庭收入的关系 28

2.1.2.人工林的定义 30

2.1.3.人工林发展的定义 31

2.1.4.森林政策的定义 31

2.1.5.森林政策的重要性 32

2.1.6.人工林发展政策与家庭福利的关系 32

2.1.7 影响的定义 33

2.1.8.评估政策影响的重要性 33

2.2.文献综述 34

2.2.1.评估政策影响的研究 34

2.2.2.人工林建设的研究 39

2.2.3.长期成本收益分析的研究 44

2.3.理论分析框架 48

2.4.本章小结 51

3 越南的人工林与林业政策情况 52

3.1 越南人工林与林业政策概况 52

3.1.1.人工林特征概况 52

3.1.2.林业政策概况 62

3.2.北干省人工林与林业政策概况 78

3.2.1.北干省经济社会特征概况 78

3.2.2.北干省林业政策概况 83

3.2.3.人工林发展政策对北干省人工林发展的影响 86

3.3.本章小结 93

4 人工林发展政策对农户人工林种植的影响 94

4.1.引言 94

4.2.材料与方法 96

4.2.1.文献综述 96

4.2.2.理论框架 97

4.2.3.方法 98

4.3.结果与讨论 101

4.3.1.描述性统计 101

4.3.2.农户对人工林种植的观点 102

4.3.3.农户人工林种植的影响因素 105

4.3.4.人工林发展政策对农户人工林种植的影响 108

4.4.本章小结 114

5 人工林发展政策对人工林经济效益的影响 116

5.1.引言 116

5.2.材料与方法 117

5.2.1.数据收集 117

5.2.2.数据分析 118

5.3.研究结果分析 121

5.3.1.研究区的生长能力与林地特征 121

5.3.2.人工林种植的成本与收益分析 125

5.3.3.人工林经营活动的经济结果分析 133

5.3.4.敏感性分析 137

5.4.人工林发展政策对人工林的影响 139

5.4.1.人工林种植的经济动机 139

5.4.2.政策性成本项目对造林户的影响 140

5.4.3.政策性收益项目对造林户的影响 142

5.4.4.政策对造林户的综合影响 142

5.4.5.越南人工林种植的前景 143

5.5.本章小结 144

6 人工林发展政策对造林户的影响 146

6.1.引言 146

6.2.材料与方法 148

6.2.1.样本与数据收集 148

6.2.2 收入的界定与核算 149

6.2.3.理论与实证分析框架 151

6.2.4.模型构建 153

6.3.结果与讨论 154

6.3.1.研究区农户的社会经济特征 154

6.3.2.经济收益的不同来源分析 158

6.3.3.基于匹配技术的政策福利影响研究 161

6.3.4.人工林发展政策对北干省当地社区的影响 166

6.4.本章小结 167

7 结论与建议 170

7.1.引言 170

7.2.结论 171

7.3.政策建议 173

7.3.1.对政府的建议 173

7.3.2.对地方社区的建议 175

7.3.3.对农户的建议 177

7.4.研究展望 179

参考文献 181

附录 193

作者简介 221

导师简介 222

致谢 223

TABLE OF CONTENTS

摘要 I ABSTRACT III

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background of the research 1

1.2 Research objective and significant 4

1.2.1 Objective of the research 4

1.2.2 Significant of the research 5

1.3 Research questions and hypothesis 6

1.3.1 Research questions 6

1.3.2 Research hypothesis 6

1.4 Research methods 7

1.4.1 Study area selection and description 7

1.4.2 Methods 10

1.5 Research logic 22

1.6 Research contents 24

1.7 Value and innovation of the research 26

1.7.1 Value of the research 26

1.7.2 Innovation of the research 26

2 THEORETICAL CONCEPTS AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 28

2.1 Definition of key concepts 28

2.1.1 The forest plantation- household income nexus 28

2.1.2 Forest plantations definition 30

2.1.3 Forest plantation development definition 31

2.1.4 Forestry policy definition 31

2.1.5 The importance of forestry policy 32

2.1.6 FPD policies and households welfare nexus 32

2.1.7 Impacts definition 33

2.1.8 The importance of policy impact evaluate 33

2.2 Literature review 34

2.2.1 Research about policy impact assessment 34

2.2.2 Research about the plantation establishment 39

2.2.3 Research about cost-benefit analysis in the long-term 44

2.3 Analytical framework 48

2.4 Conclusion 51

3 FOREST PLANTATION AND FORESTRY POLICY IN VIETNAM 52

3.1 Forest plantation and forestry policy in Vietnam 52

3.1.1 Characteristic of forest plantation in Viet Nam 52

3.1.2 Forestry policy in Vietnam 62

3.2 Forest plantation and forest policy in BacKan 78

3.2.1 Socio-economic characteristic of Bac Kan province 78

3.2.2 Forestry policy in Bac Kan province 83

3.2.3 Impact of FPD policies on forest plantation in Bac Kan province 86

3.3 Conclussion 93

4 IMPACT OF FOREST PLANTATION DEVELOPMENT POLICIES ON HOUSEHOLDS

PARTICIPATION ESTABLISHING FOREST PLANTATION 94

4.1 Introduction 94

4.2 Materials and methods 96

4.2.1 Literature review 96

4.2.2 Theoretical framework 97

4.2.3 Methodology 98

4.3 Results and discussion 101

4.3.1 Descriptive statistics 101

4.3.2 Households‘ opinions on establishment of forest plantation 102

4.3.3 The factors affect on establish plantation of households 105

4.3.4 Impact of forest plantation development policies on forest plantation of afforestation households sample 108

4.4 Conclusions 114

5 IMPACT OF FOREST PLANTATION DEVELOPMENT POLICIES ON ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF FOREST PLANTATION 116

5.1 Introduction 116

5.2 Materials and methods 117

5.2.1 Data collection 117

5.2.2 Data analysis 118

5.3 Results 121

5.3.1 The growth ability and woodlot characteristics in the study area 121

5.3.2 Cost and benefit of establishment of forest plantation 125

5.3.3 Financial analysis results of forest plantation activities 133

5.3.4 Sensitivity analysis 137

5.4 Discussion about impact of forest plantation development policies on plantation performance139 5.4.1 Financial motivation drivers of plantation 139

5.4.2 Impacts policy relevant cost items of afforestation households 140

5.4.3 Impact of policy relevant benefit items of afforestation households 142

5.4.4 Comprehensive impacts of policy on afforestation household 142

5.4.5 A future for the forest plantation in Vietnam 143

5.5 Conclusion 144

6 IMPACT OF FOREST PLANTATION DEVELOPMENT POLICIES ON AFFORESTATION HOUSEHOLD 146

6.1 Introduction 146

6.2 Materials and methods 148

6.2.1 Sampling Techniques and Data Collection 148

6.2.2 Income definitions and calculations 149

6.2.3 Theoretical and Empirical Framework 151

6.2.4 The Analytical Model 153

6.3 Result and discussion 154

6.3.1 Socio-economic characteristics of afforestation households in the study area 154

6.3.2 Economic contribution from different sources 158

6.3.3 Welfare impact of policy by using matching techniques 161 6.3.4 Perception on impact of FPD policies on local communities in the Bac Kan province 166

6.4 Conclusion 167

7 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 170

7.1 Introduction 170

7.2 Main finding 171

7.3 Policy implication 173

7.3.1 Recommendation for government 173

7.3.2 Recommendation for local community 175

7.3.3 Recommendation for local people 177

7.4 Further study 179

REFERENCES 181

APPENDIXES 193

AUTHOR‘S PROFILE 221

SUPERVISOR‘S PROFILE 222

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 223

表目录

表 1.1 研究区内受调查家庭的总数 11

表 1.2 应用方法的分析 22

表 2.1 人工林-家庭收入与生计的理论与概念 29

表 2.2 研究的数据、方法与对象 36

表 2.3 研究的数据、方法与对象 40

表 2.4 研究的数据、方法与对象 45

表 3.1 越南各地区森林分布 56

表 3.2 越南人工林发展的相关政策 64

表 3.3 北干省产业总产值 82

表 3.4 北干省林业发展的相关政策 83

表 3.5 北干省林业总产值 87

表 3.6 北干省森林面积 90

表 3.7 北干省各地区的森林总面积 91

表 4.1 解释变量 101

表 4.2 造林户与未造林护家庭的描述性统计 102

表 4.3 受访者种植人工林的原因以及林业相关的约束与鼓励措施 104

表 4.4 人工林种植影响因素的回归结果 106

表 4.5 研究区人工林面积……… ………109

表 4.6 研究区农户的人工林总面积……… ………112

表 5.1 村庄选择及其样本量……… ………117

表 5.2 研究区自建立以来第七年人工林的高度、直径以及存储量……… ……122

表 5.3 农户土地管理的描述性统计……… ………123

表 5.4 A.mangium 人工林的现金流量……… ………126

表 5.5 Eucalyptus 人工林的现金流量 130

表 5.6 M.conifera 人工林的现金流量 132

表 5.7 A.mangium 人工林的经济收益……… ………131

表 5.8 Eucalyptus 人工林的经济收益 134

表 5.9 M.conifera 人工林的经济收益 134

表 5.10 获得政策支持与未获得政策支持的相关指标比较……… …………139

表 6.1 村庄选择及其样本数量 149

表 6.2 四类农户群体的社会经济特征差异 155

表 6.3 农户社会经济特征变量的分类 157

表 6.4 农户收入来源分析 158

表 6.5 农户支出分析……… ………160

表 6.6 政策参与影响因素的 Logistic 回归结果………162

表 6.7 人工林发展政策对农户福利的影响……… ………163

表 6.8 人工林种植所需的劳动成本……… …165

表 6.9 人工林发展政策对北干省当地社区的积极影响……… 166

表 6.10 人工林发展政策对北干省当地社区的负面影响……… 167

LIST OF TABLE

Table 1 1 Total number of surveyed households in the study area 11

Table 1 2 Summary of the method will be use and corresponding analysis samples 22

Table 2 1 Summary of conceptual or theoretical discussions about the forest plantation- household livelihoods or households welfare from key publications 29

Table 2 2 Summary data, method, and object of previous research 36

Table 2 3 Summary data, method, and object of previous research 40

Table 2 4 Summary data, method and object of previous research 45

Table 3.1 Distribution of forest in Vietnam by region 56

Table 3 2 Relevant policies to forest plantation development in Vietnam 64

Table 3 3 The total production value of Bac Kan province 82

Table 3 4 Relevant policies to forest plantation development of Bac Kan province 83

Table 3 5 Total value of forestry sector in Bac Kan province 87

Table 3 6 Forest area in Bac Kan province 90

Table 3 7 Total forest area in Bac Kan province divide on districts 91

Table 4.1 Explanatory variables 101

Table 4.2 Descriptive statistics of surveyed households comparing means for households with and without forest plantations 102

Table 4.3 Reasons identified by respondents for adopting forest plantations and constraints and incentives associated with forestry 104

Table 4.4 Results of the decision on the establishment of forest plantation (Logistic regression model) 106 Table 4 5 The forest plantation area sp in the study area 110

Table 4 6 Total forest plantation area of households survey in study area (n=287) 113

Table 5.4 Cash flow of A.mangium plantation (Unit: VND thousand)……… 126

Table 5.5 Cash flow of Eucalyptus plantation (Unit: VND thousand)……… 128

Table 5.6 Cash flow of M.conifera plantation (Unit: VND thousand)……… …… ….130

Table 5.7 The economic efficiency of A.mangium plantations (Unit: VND thousand) ……… 131

Table 5.1 Village selection and number of sampling 118

Table 5.2 Height, diameter, and volume of forest plantation plots at the seventh year since establishment at the study area 123

Table 5.3 Descriptive statistics for land management of household 124

Table 5.4 Cash flow of A.mangium plantation (Unit: VND thousand) 127

Table 5.5 Cash flow of Eucalyptus plantation (Unit: VND thousand) 130

Table 5.6 Cash flow of M.conifera plantation (Unit: VND thousand) 132

Table 5.7 The economic performance of A mangium plantations (Unit: VND thousand) 133

Table 5.8 The economic performance of Eucalyptus plantations (Unit: VND thousand) 134

Table 5.9 The economic performance of M.conifera plantations (Unit: VND thousand) 134

Table 6 1 Village selection and number of sampling 149

Table 6 2 Difference between socio-economic characteristics of four households group (n=287) 155

Table 6 3 Socio-economic characteristics of households follow classify variables 157

Table 6 4 Average income source share by different sources 158

Table 6.5 Average expenditure source share by different sources……….160

Table 6.6 Logistic regression results for participane policy households……… …… 162

Table 6.7 Welfare impacts of forest plantation development policy on participane households……… … 163

Table 6.8 Workday generated from forest plantation models……… 165

Table 6.9 Perception of positive impact of FPD policy on communities in the Bac Kan province…… 166

Table 6.10 Perception of negative impact of FPD policy on communities in the Bac Kan province… 167

图目录

图 1.1 研究区域图 8

图 1.2 研究区域的地形图 12

图 1.3 采访 N A R I 区的人工林造林户 13

图 1.4 采访 B A B E 区的人工林造林户 13

图 1.5 采访村长 14

图 1.6 研究过程 16

图 1.7 人工林种植决定影响因素的分析框架 18

图 1.8 人工林经济效益的分析框架 19

图 1.9 人工林发展政策对家庭福利影响的分析框架 21

图 1.10 技术路线图 23

图 2.1 政策实施过程中重点评估的地方 37

图 2.2 研究的分析框架 53

图 3.1 越南森林总面积 55

图 3.2 越南森林覆盖率的变化 56

图 3.3 越南的人工林总面积 56

图 3.4 越南大陆 FNF 地图的分类结果 57

图 3.5 越南的森林分类 58

图 3.6 A MANGIUM 树种 59

图 3.7 E UCALYPTUS 树种 60

图 3.8 M CONIFERA 树种 61

图 3.9 越南木材产品出口总值 62

图 3.10 越南木材加工业的供应链 63

图 3.11 越南人工林的利益分布 64

图 3.12 越南森林发展战略 65

图 3.13 林业三产的分布 87

图 3.14 北干省森林总面积 88

图 3.15 北干省森林分类 89

图 3.16 北干省森林分布 90

图 3.17 北干省各地区的人工林分布 91

图 4.1 研究区三个树种的面积增长 111

图 4.2 B A B E 区与 N A R I 区的森林覆盖率 111

图 5.1 北干省三个树种的直径、高度与生产力 121

图 5.2 北干省三个树种的 NPV 与 IRR 的计算结果………133

图 5.3 NPV 对敏感性的分析………135

图 5.4 IRR 对敏感性的分析………136

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 1.1 Map of study area 8

Figure 1.2 Simulation of topography of the study area 12

Figure 1.3 Interviewing forest planter in Na Ri district 13

Figure 1.4 Interviewing forest planter in Ba Be district 13

Figure 1.5 Interviewing village‘s head about forest plantation management techniques 14

Figure 1.6 Schematic representation of the research processes 16

Figure 1.7 The analytical framework the determinants influencing to establish plantations 18

Figure 1.8 The analytical framework economic efficiency of plantation in the long-term 19

Figure 1.9 The analytical framework the impact of FPD policy on households welfare 21

Figure 1.10 The technical route of study 23

Figure 2.1 Illustrates where in the policy process impact evaluation in focused 37

Figure 2.2 A general analytical framework of research 53

Figure 3.1 Total forest area in Vietnam by 2019 (unit: ha) 55

Figure 3.2 Change in forest cover of Vietnam from 1943 to 2019 56

Figure 3.3 Total forest plantation area in Vietnam by 2019 56

Figure 3.4 Classification result for FNF maps for mainland Vietnam from 2015 to 2018 (a) forest map in 2015, (b) forest map in 2016, (c) forest map in 2017, (d) Forest/non-forest map in 2018 57

Figure 3.5 Forest classification in Vietnam by 2019 58

Figure 3.6 A.mangium tree sp 59

Figure 3.7 Eucalyptus tree sp 60

Figure 3.8 M.conifera tree sp 61

Figure 3.9 Total timber products export in Vietnam by 2019 62

Figure 3.10 Supply chain of wood processing industry in Vietnam 63

Figure 3.11 Benefit sharing of forest plantation in Vietnam 64

Figure 3.12 National Forest Sector Development Strategy 65

Figure 3.13 Proportion of forestry sector, by 2019 87

Figure 3.14 Total forest area in Bac Kan province by 2019 88

Figure 3.15 Forest Classification in Bac Kan province by 2019 89

Figure 3.16 Forest distribution in Bac Kan by 2019 (unit: %) 90

Figure 3.17 Forest plantation distribution between districts by 2019 (unit:%) 91

Figure 4.1 Area growth of three tree sp in the study area 111

Figure 4.2 Forest cover of Ba Be and Nari districts 111

Figure 5.1 Diameter, height and productivity for three sp in Bac Kan Province 121

Figure 5.2 Calculation results of NPV and IRR for 3 sp in Bac Kan Province 135

Figure 5.3 Sensitivity of NPV to the discount rate (5.3a); the timber price (5.3b); the land rent (5.3c); and the labor cost (5.3d) 135

Figure 5.4 Sensitivity of IRR to the timber price (5.4a); the land rent (5.4b); and the labor cost (5.4c) 136

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

Abbreviations Full meaning

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

FPD Forest plantation development

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

FSC Forest Stewardship Council-certification

MARD Ministry of Agriculture and rural development

KFW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau

FPD Forest Protection and Development

PES Payment for forest environmental services

DID Difference in difference

ANOVA Analysis of variance

VRAFC Agricultural and Fishery Census

PEN Poverty and Environmental Network

CIFOR Center for International Forestry Research

EFPP Expanded forest plantation program

NTFP Non-timber forest product

SLCP Sloping Land Conversion Program

GWR Geographically weighted regression

IV Instrumental variables estimation

VLSS Vietnam Living Standard Survey

VARHS Vietnam Access Resources Household Survey

SRI System of Rice Intensification

SLA Sustainable Livelihoods Approach

OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

VND Vietnamese Dong (Vietnamese currency unit)

IMF International Monetary Fund

ILO International Labour Organization

IAHS Income of the Agricultural Household Sector

DNRE Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Bac Kan DARD Department of Agricultural and Rural Development of Bac Kan VCPC Vietnam Central Planning Committee

SLF Sustainable Livelihoods Framework

ODA Official Development Assistance

VFDS Vietnam Forestry Development Strategy

VAFS Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences

SFEs State Forest Enterprise

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the research/研究背景

At the beginning of the twenty-first century, although there has been marked progress

on reducing poverty but poverty remained was a problem of huge proportions with more than 734 million people or 9.9% of the world‘s population are living in extreme poverty in

2019, mostly in developing countries, living on less than 1.9 dolar per day (WB, 2019) In

1975, after gaining independence, Vietnam was one of the poorest countries in Asia Yet, from the 1985 to the 1995, Vietnam set a new course that with achievement that has been called ―one of the most dramatic turnarounds in economic history‖ (Dollar and Litvack, 1998) and ―one of the greatest success stories in economic development‖ (WB et al., 2003)

In over the last decades, the poverty rate decreased from 58.1 percent to 14.5 percent and

to approximately 10 percent in 2012 Poverty rate seem has declined in all households groups, both in urban and rural areas, also among the Kinh majority and the ethnic minorities, and in all geographical regions

In fact, since the launch of the ―Doi moi‖ reforms in the late 1980s, Vietnam has experienced rapid economic growth, which has catapulted it to middle-income status in

2010 and has contributed to a fast decline in poverty (WB, 2012b) Although Vietnam has made great achievements in reducing poverty and improving farm households‘ income, there are about 10 percents of Vietnamese living below the poverty line with livelihoods dependent on agricultural and related activities in rural areas (Vietnam Government, 2004;

WB, 2014) In particularly, approximately 34 percent of rural householdes‘ income came from agriculture and sideline activities in 2010 (Badiani and Brandt, 2013) Therefore, the biggest challenge facing poverty reduction and improve farm households‘ income are how

to continue maintain speed development and guarantee diversification, sustainable income; especially, at rural area, highland areas and mountainous area of Vietnam

There are many solutions to implement poverty reduction and improve income; one of the important solutions chosen by many countries is to rely on forest exploitation due to poor households are often living nearby forests, or in areas which difficult for agriculture cultivation Forest can generate income, underpinning subsistence economies, providing a safety net to minimize vulnerability to risk, supplying energy to poor households, maintaining productivity of poor farmers‘ land use systems, pioneering decentralized approaches to access and benefit-sharing and thus good governance (Byron and Arnold, 1999; Mayers and Sonja, 2002; IUCN, 2003; FAO, 2006) However, forests around the world are under threat from deforestation by many reasons such as ranching and development, unsustainable logging for timber, construction, agriculture, meat production, and forest fires and degradation due to climate change This impacts people‘s livelihoods and threatens a wide range of plant and animal sp According to the FAO estimated that losing 18.7 million acres (7.3 million hectares) of forests annually on globally (FAO, 2015)

In response to the problem of deforestation and forest degradation, a range of solutions has been introduced by policymakers such as: saving in the use of wood resources, use recycled products, use wood and wood products had derived Forest Stewardship Council-certification (FSC) and especial was planting forests (FAO, 2016) Therefore, afforestation

to compensate and replace natural forests was extremely necessary for any country

In fact, forest plantations can strongly benefit the economy with the provision of large quantities of timber, non-timber forest products and other commercially valuable assets on

a permanent basis, (Karunarathna et al, 2002; Hou and Wu, 2004; Richardson, 2005; Vedeld et al 2004; Sandewall, 2015; Dai et al 2017); thus creating jobs, improving local incomes and providing workers with a stable livelihood (Schirmer, 2006; Derkyi, 2010, Sandewall et al 2010; D'Amato et al 2017), as well as contributing to local and regional development by supporting the development of local infrastructure (D'Amato et al 2017, Pirard et al 2017) Timber from plantations is estimated to provide more than a third of the global demand for industrial wood, and this proportion is projected to increase (Kanninen, 2010) while the supply of wood from natural forests is decreasing (Warman, 2014) In addition, due to the increasing demand for timber in the world, the development of forest plantations will help replace and reduce the pressure on natural forests (Fenning et al 2002; FAO, 2010a; Gregersen, et al 2011; Barua et al 2014; FAO 2015), solve environmental issues such as reclamation of degraded land (Derkyi, 2010), improve soil nutrients and reduce soil erosion (FAO 2010, Andersson et al 2016) as well as mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration (Bauhus et al 2009; Lamb 2010, 2014; Gregersen et al 2011; Alston and Andersson 2011; Pawson et al 2013, Kiyingi et al 2016) In addition, forest plantations have the potential to bring many benefits to poor rural households through diversification of income, (Sandewall et al 2010) facilitate their participation in forestry activities, help them escape poverty by producing products and services for home consumption and cash income (Curtis & Race 1998; Higman et al 1999; Oksanen et al 2003; Shackleton et al 2007) In some cases, forest plantations contribute significantly to poor household incomes directly through savings mechanisms, cash subsidies, (Ofoegbu, 2014) or indirectly as a safety net providing them with free food, firewood, wood and stockpiling of products when they are at risk during periods of food shortage and low income (e,g, during crop failure or unemployment) (Vedeld et al 2004; Shackleton 2004; Nawir et al 2007; Maduekwe 2008)

In Vietnam, approximately 13 million people have livelihoods depend directly on forest resources Furthermore, agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing combined account for 20% of the country's entire GDP with employing tens of millions of people (WB, 2009)

In the Vietnam Forestry Development Strategy 2006-2020, the Government of Vietnam affirms the focus of future poverty reduction programs to improve the livelihoods of rural farmers based on their main resource: "Forest land" (MARD, 2006) Thus, forest resources will continue have a big role in livelihoods strategy of many farm households in Vietnam

because they have long living in or near forests and used forests to created income, livelihood for farm households However, over the past 50 years, Vietnam has witnessed a rapid decline in forest cover, from about 70 percent since the beginning of the twentieth century (Thomas, 1999), to about 43 percent in the mid-twentieth century and down to about 28 percent % in the mid-1990s (MARD, 2006; Müller, 2006; Sunderlin et al 2008; Cheng, Samantha et al 2017) In the face of severe deforestation, recommendations on plantation development have been suggested by stakeholders to address forest deforestation in Viet Nam and to meet the increasing demand for timber and non-timber forest products It is expected that the development of forest plantations will relieve pressure on the remaining natural forests and thus decelerate rates of deforestation in the country Forest plantation development (FPD) was also proposed to against environmental problems such as soil erosion and loss of land fertility (FAO 2010, Andersson et al 2016) Rural households were especially encouraged plantations establishment to generate additional income and ensure income, thus contributing to social equity and poverty alleviation These objectives were seen as an important step towards achieving the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

In response to this recommendation, several projects and FPD policies have been implemented by the Government of Viet Nam such as program 3271, program 6612, Project KFW 3 , program 147 4 program 57 5 , program 886 6 (Son and Boi, 2016) In addition, the change of factors such as: (1) Change awareness about the role of forest plantation in household economic development; (2) Increasing demand of wood in the domestic market and international markets for export; (3) Appearance of the Land Law in

1993 (revision on 2004) and Law on Forest Protection and Development (FPD) in 2004 (Ngai, 2015), the large area of forest plantations have been established in many rural communities in Vietnam by farm households in the period 1991 to present Many opinions consider that the planted forests area, especially production forest areas has increased rapidly in recent years due to FPD policies have created incentives farm households investing on forest plantations; hence, it will help contributing and increase forest cover Research of Castella et al (2006) also found that FPD policies have restricted agricultural cultivation on forest land, thereby helping to regenerate forests and contributing to increased forest cover

The FPD policies in Vietnam have three major goals The first goal is economic development promotion, to be achieved by fostering commercial tree plantations, including agroforestry and industrial plantations, developing mixed forestry–agricultural farming systems as well as timber processing enterprises and other forest products The second goal,

1

Decision no.327, ―Greening the Hills‖ program, approved Barren by Council of Ministers, 1992

2 Decision no.661, ―The 5 million Hectare Reforestation‖ program, approved by the Prime Minister, 1998

3 ―Planting and rehabilitating degraded forests‖ project, implemented by Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, 2002

4 Decision no.147, ―The policies for production forest development‖ program, approved by the Prime Minister, 2007

5 Decision no.57, ―Forest protection and development plan‖, approved by the Prime Minister, 2011

6

Decision no.886, ―The sustainable forestry development objective‖, approved by the Prime Minister, 2016

environmental protection, aims to increase forest cover through forest regeneration and planting on deforested land as well as to increase the number of environmental services through the conservation biodiversity resources The final is social goal; this goal focuses

on poverty reduction, through allocation of forest land process to households and communities, community forestry programs, forestry extension services and generation of employment in forest enterprises

However, some studies have indicated that the link between FPD policies and the afforestation households was not clear Meyfroid and Lambin (2009) explain that the increase in forest area in Vietnam was not because of forest protection and development policies and afforestation households, which due to Vietnam has succeeded in "exporting" deforestation to neighboring countries through the import of wood materials from these countries In another study of Meyfroid and Lambin 2008, these authors point out that forest area growth in Vietnam was not the result of a process or policy but the result of a combination of factors such as economics and politics were related to forest resources, land scarcity, economic development, and integration with the market on a national scale‖ The analysis of these authors showed that in some localities especially in areas where the land has a steep slope and unfavorable natural conditions for agricultural development, land degradation and regulations restricting shifting cultivation, leading to a decrease in cultivated land, increase forest plantation area In addition, Sikor and Tran Ngoc Thanh (2007) shown that FPD policies seem reduced forest area in some place in the Central Highlands, due to the Law enforcement mechanism lax at the local level in these areas and farmers seize the opportunity to convert their allocated forest land to agricultural crops The above results were difference and sometimes conflicting on the relationship between FPD policies and the increase of forests area as well households welfare of the previous studies; it also have shown that FPD policies seem only effective in some cases

Thus, there is a dire need for further studies to accurately assess the impact of FPD policies on afforestation households This study will (1) General assess the development of forest plantation in Vietnam and study area (2) analysis the effects of FPD policies on households‘ decision of establishing forest plantation, (3) assess the role of FPD policies

on economic performance of afforestation households (A.mangium, Eucalyptus, M.conifera trees sp), (4) analysis the impacts of FPD policies on afforestation households welfare Hence, this study wills proposal solutions help to enhence performance of FPD policies as well improve afforestation households welfare in study area The study used case studies from Bac Kan province where has been conducted field surveys from June to the last of August in 2018

1.2 Research objective and significant/研究目的与意义

1.2.1 Objective of the research/研究目的

The overall goal of the study is assessment the impact of FPD policies on decision

establish forest plantation of households on their land Estimation the role of FPD policies

on improves economic performance of afforestation households, as well as analyzes the relationship between FPD policies and afforestation household‘s welfare Thence, the study proposes solution to improve efficiency of these forest plantation policies to promote sustainable forestry development in the locality Specifically:

- Analysis the spatial feature, temporal of forest plantations as well as contribution of forest plantation policies on afforestation activities in Backan province and Vietnam

- Assessment the effect of forest plantation development policies on decision plantation establishment of the households in the study area

- Assessment the role of forest plantation development policies on economic performance of afforestation households (A.mangium, Eucalyptus and M.conifera sp)

- Analysis the impact of forest plantation development policies on afforestation household‘s welfare in study area

- Make solutions to improve performance of forest plantation development policies aim afforestation households and sustainable development forestry in the study area

1.2.2 Significant of the research/研究意义

The present study is significant in both theoretical and practical knowledge Firstly, the study will help to answer the researchers' questions about the impacts FPD policies on afforestation households as well as FPD trend in the future in study area Most of the studies conducted on the assessment of the role of FPD policies on afforestation households in Vietnam were based only on descriptive statistics and did not explain how forestry policies effects on forest plantation as well as welfare of household participanting plant forest

Secondly, the present study applies rigorous statistical testing of the correlations and quantitative analysis between the socio-economic characteristics of afforestation households, policy factors, and market factors with decision forest plantation establishment

in study area

Thirdly, research will use cost benefit analysis (CBA) to evaluate the economic efficiency of plantation of afforestation households as well as the role of support policies Thence, it provides scientific evidence and policy recommendation to help improve economic efficiency, and land use efficiency as well as appropriate forestry development policies in the study area

Fourthly, this study will provide an overview of the FPD policies and forest plantation history development in Vietnam, the role of FPD policies in forestry development and forest plantation establishment as well as future directions of forest plantations in Vietnam

In addition, the study combined the analysis of survey data with extensive research documents to understand the context of forestry economic development in the study area Thence, study will help afforestation households orient and choose appropriate solutions to improve and strengthen the welfare that they could receive from their agriculture, forestry

activities and that is the basis for proposing policies forestry and agriculture economic development in the future

1.3 Research questions and hypothesis/研究问题与假设

1.3.1 Research questions/研究问题

The overarching research question in this thesis is:

What is the current, future role of forest plantation development policies on afforestation households in study area, a mountainous province in Northern area of Viet Nam? To address the overarching research question, empirical analyses were conducted with a focus on four main research questions:

（1）What is the current situation of forest plantation development policies and afforestation activities in study area and Vietnam?

（2）Why are the household‘s participation to afforestation activities and what are the main policies factors impacts to their decision?

（ 3 ） How is the role of forest plantation development policies on economic performance of afforestation households (A.mangium, Eucalyptus, and M.conifera trees sp)?

（ 4 ） How forest plantation development policies can impact on afforestation household welfare in the study area?

1.3.2 Research hypothesis/研究假设

These hypothesis have been formulated to guide the study The qualitative and quantitative data were collected from the field survey and from previous empirical research that been used to propose these hypothesis The hypotheses developed to evaluate the current situation of forest plantation development policies, explain the reason why forest plantation activities have expanded in study area, whether forest plantation development policies impact on economic performance and afforestation households welfare as well as trend of forest plantation development policies in the future Hypothesis

of the study are as follows:

（ 1 ） Forest plantation development policies help afforestation activities rapidly expanded

（2）Support from the State is the main factor affecting the establishment forest plantation behavior in the study area

（3）Support from forest plantation development policies can bring more economic performance for afforestation households

（ 4 ） Forest plantation development policies help to improve afforestation households welfare (through income, expenditure, forest plantation income, assets value)

1.4 Research methods/研究方法

1.4.1 Study area selection and description/研究区域选择与概况

（1）Study area selection and communities/研究区域选择

Bac Kan province is a mountainous province in the North East of Viet Nam, kilometer distance to Hanoi Capital along National Highway 3 The distance from Bac Kan Province to the Huu Nghi International Border Gate of Lang Son province (with China) is about 200 kilometer; From Bac Kan to Noi Bai international airport in Hanoi and Hai Phong port only 200 kilometer Therefore, the traffic, exchange of products from Bac Kan

170-to neighboring provinces is quite convenient Bac Kan has high mountainous terrain; it is higher than the surrounding provinces and is dominated by bow shaped mountain extending from North to South on the West and East sides of the province Therefore, Bac Kan has a distinct seasonal climate difference The rainy season is from May to October, accounting for 70 - 80% of the whole year rainfall; in the dry season from November to April of next year, rainfall only accounts for about 20 - 25% of total rainfall in the year In general, the climate in Bac Kan is suitable for many types of crops, livestock and land conditions in the province are appropriate for the development of agriculture and forestry especially with the dominant forest sp (DNRE, 2019)

The study sample consisted of households from a rural area of Bac Kan province in Vietnam (Figure 1.1) and it is one of the provinces with the highest forest cover in Vietnam7 Bac Kan is a mountainous province with a tropical climate, it is same other provinces in Northeast Vietnam, it is suitable for forest plantation activities It also has a population of about 313,905 persons (by 2019) divided into 7 ethnic such as Tay, Nung, Kinh, Dao, Mong, Hoa, San Chay and a population density of 63 persons per square kilometer The province has a total area of about 4,859 square kilometers, divided into seven districts and one city with about 110 communes, 6 wards, and 6 townships (the lowest administrative unit used for state management in Vietnam) (DNRE, 2019) Under the commune system, most of the households are found in villages, although they are not officially recognized as administrative units

According to the results of monitoring of forest resources, forest covers more than 72.9% of Bac Kan province Planted forest accounted about 20.13% of the province‘s area (97,863 hectares) and on 26.31% of the forest area (DARD, 2019) The large areas of forest in the province have contributed to development of wood processing and handicraft industries there, creating jobs and improving residents‘ livelihoods

7

Decision no 1187, ―State of Vietnam forest‖, approved by the Agriculture and Rural Development, 2017

Figure 1 1 Map of study area

图 1.1 研究区域地图

Source: Anh, H.L.; Castella, J.C.; Novosad, P Village Communication Network and Implications for Agricultural Extension in the Northern Mountains of Viet Nam A Case Study in Ngoc Phai Commune, Cho Don District, Bac Kan Province Viet Nam SAM Paper Series 2002, 18

The economic structure of the districts was still inadequate, and dominated by traditional cultivation The structure of crops and livestock was renewed recently, by introduction of high-yield crop and livestock varieties to replace low-yielding varieties In addition, the transitions of cultivation and breeding structure in a positive direction have promoted development economic The cash income is generated mostly through the sale of surplus forest and agricultural products after use process of households Besides agriculture, other sources of income include private jobs (working in factories of mining and processing minerals), trading (collecting vegetables and other crops from villages and selling them in urban areas), working as a labor and government jobs and working in the service sector (ecotourism)

In the last of the decade, although households income increase significant but the average income of households in rural area of Bac Kan province remains well below both the regional and national average, and it is considered one of the poor provinces of Vietnam Hence, Bac Kan is considered to be the focus of poverty alleviation programs that aim to support the improvement of infrastructure, educational facilities, enhance income of households and implementing a number of economic development projects based on the province's natural resources strengths, especially natural forests and forest plantations (Bac Kan Provincial People‘s Committee, 2016)

On the other hand, with hilly and mountainous terrain, the land area main is forest land Along to poverty situation combined with abundant forest resources, and the small-scale afforestation industry for the woodchip industry is being promoted seem making Bac Kan province an ideal location for studying the role of forestry policies on forest plantation and forestry economic development

（2） Study area description/研究区域概况

a Ba Be District/Ba Be 区域

Ba Be is a mountainous Northern district of Bac Kan province, 60-kilometer distance

to the provincial center (Bac Kan city) The district has a total land area of 674.12 km2 (accounting for 14.1% of the total land area of Bac Kan province) The district has administrative status as follows: firstly, the east border is on Ngan Son district; secondly, the west boarder is on Na Hang district, Tuyen Quang province; thirdly, the south border is on Cho Don district; fourthly, the north borders is on Pac Nam district, Cao Bang province (Ba Be news, 2018)

The district has a population of about 47,789 persons (2019), 95% of population is ethnic divided into these ethnics minorities such as Tay, Nung, Kinh, Dao, Mong, Hoa, and other ethnic The district divided into 16 administrative units, include 15 communes and 01 township with 200 villages (the lowest administrative unit used for state management in Vietnam) (DNRE, 2019) Under the commune system, most of the households are found in villages, although they are not officially recognized as administrative units

The district has a relatively favorable geographical position to exchange economic - cultural - social development with other districts in the province and neighboring provinces

In the district, there are many beautiful landscapes that especial typical of Ba Be Lake with great potential for ecotourism development However, due to infrastructure, especially the development poor transport system lead to the district's socio-economic development capacity has been limited The land area of Ba Be district is mainly forestry land accounting for over 80%, agricultural land accounts for 10% The district has complex terrain, divided by rivers, streams and mountains, so traffic travelling is difficult, especially

in highland villages Ba Be terrain mainly consists of high mountains interspersed with limestone blocks with rugged and thick layers, characterized by Phja Bjooc mountain range with the height of 1,578m, is the roof house of 3 districts: Ba Be, Cho Don and Bach Thong (Ba Be news, 2018)

b Na Ri District/ Na Ri 区域

Na Ri is a mountainous northern district of Bac Kan province, 72-kilometer distance

to the provincial center (Bac Kan city) The district has a total land area of 853 km2 (accounting for 17.54% of the total land area of Bac Kan province) The district has administrative status as follows: firstly, the east border is on Binh Gia and Trang Dinh districts, Lang Son province; secondly, the west boarder is on Bach Thong district; thirdly, the south border is on Cho Moi district; fourthly, the north borders is on Ngan Son

district (Na Ri news, 2019)

The district has a population about 40,418 persons (2019), divided into these ethnics minorities such as Tay, Nung, Kinh, Dao, Mong, Hoa, and other ethnic The district divided into 22 administrative units, include 21 communes and 01 township with 233 villages (the lowest administrative unit used for state management in Vietnam) (DNRE, 2019) Under the commune system, most of the households found in villages, although they are not officially recognized as administrative units Na Ri district has a slow economic growth rate and per capita income is low In adiition, although the infrastructure system such as transportation system, schools, national electricity grid, commune health center is invested by the Government but still lacking, affecting the economic development speed of whole district

Na Ri has complex terrain, mainly hills and mountains with many limestone mountains, narrow valleys, large slopes, belonging to Ngan Son bow The average height

of the district is 500m, the highest is Phyia Ngoam Mountain (Cu Le commune) with the height of 1,193m, the lowest is in Kim Lu commune with the height of 250m above the sea level (Na Ri news, 2019)

1.4.2 Methods/研究方法

（1） Sampling techniques and data collection/抽样技术与数据收集

Primary data were collected covering the period from June to August in 2018, were conducted with household heads (or another senior household member in their absence), using the participatory approach, focus group discussions and through questionnaires in a face-to-face interview technique The surveys and interviews were conducted by author and six local enumerators Vietnamese or ethnic languages were used (as required) to conduct the surveys, with the data recorded in Vietnamese, and then later translated into English by an author (with crosschecking and random back-translations by author‘s colleague to ensure quality) The questions were very specific, with a fixed range of answers Some of the questions had multiple-choice answers, and some had two response alternatives for the respondents The questionnaire also covered data on general household socioeconomic (demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, such as age, education, household size, gender, assets, sources income, expenditure, health aspects, economic activities, social cultural factors, market factors, institutional infrastructure facilities etc.) and viewpoints on factors influencing households decision to establish farm forest plantation, qualitative information about forest use tenure, prices, risks and vulnerabilities etc For village information, the data are collected through the head of the village and members of the village committee

Secondary data collected in the years of 2011 and 2018 were used Data in 2011 and

2017 were collected by Vietnam Central Planning Committee (VCPC) and GSO in the two VRAFC The aim of these VRAFC is to provide a systematic collection of data reflecting basic information on rural areas, agriculture and fisheries from those households which are

selected for the survey sample and to provide necessary information to meet the needs to conduct plans and strategies for development of agriculture and rural areas The field survey sample was collected to be representative for the whole Vietnam The selection of the sample followed a method of stratified random sampling (see GSO, 2011, 2017 for a more detail)

To select sample households for the survey, we used the three-stage procedure follows the method described by Phung et al (2015) and Hardeweg et al (2013), based on the guidelines of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN, 2008) In first stage, we selection of sampled districts in each province, we find out two districts from Bac Kan province, other official data available for all districts, and two districts were special in having a large number of forest plantations established from 2011 with support from forestry policies by local government During the second stage, we selected three communes in each of two districts in Bac Kan province in which a relatively large number

of farmers establishment plantation in 2011 on their land: Khang Ninh, Yen Duong, and Dia Linh in Ba Be district and Quang Phong, Lam Son, and Kim Lu in Na Ri district At the third stage, while sampling households, a record of all households, obtained from the leader of each communes was used Then, based on the degree of forest cover and distance

to an existing forest plantation, we selected one village from each commune and randomly selected 65 households from each village, 390 households were selected in total, whereas

30 faulty questionnaires were removed Resulting, 360 households were selected in a total sample of 390 (see Table 1.1) The power of the sample size is calculated at 5% accuracy using the Taro Yamane formula (Yamane 1967): n = N / (1 +N.e2) in which n is sample size, N is the total number of households in the area, and e is reliability

Table 1 1 Total number of surveyed households in the study area

表 1.1 研究区内受调查家庭的总数

Province District Communes Villages No of surveyed households

per village

Bac Kan

Na Ri

Source: Field survey collected by author, 2018

of key informants and experts including forestry officials at the district and regional offices, local government officials and forestry authorities, village heads, small trade and managers

of two local wood processing companies (Bac Kan Forestry Company, Bac Kan member Limited Liability Forestry Company) were interviewed during data collection The discussions with the various key informants and experts offered the opportunity

One-to obtain further information and also cross-check information given by other respondents This process helped to ensure that the data obtained were an accurate reflection of the situation The discussions usually lasted between one to two hours depending on the time availability of the informant In some cases, more visits were required if comparable responses were not found from other informants within the same community and also for the informants to explicitly clarify the information given to ensure correct interpretation Community President and village head were contacted to verify the various criteria used by the focus group discussion (FGD) participants The forestry officials at the district office were also interviewed to give information relating to past and present forest plantation development activities in the study area and most importantly the establishment of forest plantation by households in the area; the information from which contributed to addressing the six main research questions However, it must be emphasized that the accuracy of responses to quantitative questions could sometimes not be fully ascertained, as some of the information was based on recollection Nevertheless, with the experience and familiarity of the field assistants and researcher with the area, this risk was minimized

Figure 1 2 Simulation of topography of the study area

图 1.2 研究区域的地形模拟

Source: Collected from author, 2018

Figure 1 3 Interviewing forest planter in Na Ri district

图 1.3 采访 Na Ri 区的人工林者

Source: As Fig 1.2

Figure 1 4 Interviewing forest planter in Ba Be district

图 1.4 采访 Ba Be 区的人工林者

Source: As Fig 1.2

Figure 1 5 Interviewing village’s head about forest plantation management techniques

图 1.5 采访村长关于人工林管理技术的信息

Source: Collected from author, 2018

Data from VCPC and GSO in the two VRAFC provided the core household livelihoods data They provide a systematic collection of data reflecting basic information

on rural areas, agriculture and fisheries and recorded the cash and non-cash expenditure from all major sources so that the specific contribution of forestry policies and forest plantations on household‘s welfare could be contextualized Expenditure data from assets, food, clothes, health care and education service were based on a recall period of one year,

whereas income data collected from wage, business, forest, crop, livestock and other sources of income were based on one year recall periods (the year timing of the survey and the short recall periods were designed to capture seasonal variations and maximize accuracy)

b Focus group discussion (FGD)/小组讨论

A series of FGD were held in each of the study communities The objectives of these discussions were to gather background information about the communities which is not likely to be found in written documents (e.g the community history and dynamics), generate information on land-use patterns in the study area, and obtain a more detailed understanding of how the forestry policies support to forest plantation development and orient for sustainable forestry development The FGD generated valuable information which was incorporated into the final development of the household survey questionnaire The FGD were carried out by the researcher, village head and field assistants from the District Agriculture Office (DAO) and members of the study communities The FGD were conducted in the local dialect (Vietnamese language or ethnic language), since majority of the local people do not understand English A total of 10 to 12 participants each village including the village head, and elders, household are members, field assistants, researcher attended the FGD in each of the study villages The FGD were usually conducted during weekend days and noon time The advantage here is that village members are by tradition not go to their farms to work on such days and therefore offer the opportunity to meet the village members

c Household socio-economic surveys/家庭社会经济调查

Household socio-economic surveys were conducted using semi-structured questionnaires The questionnaires were administered to households from four different groups identified by participants at the FGD A total of 360 households comprising 287 households had plantation and 73 households without plantation took part in the household survey (read "sampling techniques part above for detail) One sets of questionnaires (i.e included full content tailored to afforestation households and also for households without farm forest plantation) were developed for the household surveys (see Appendix 2 for details of the questionnaires) The use of one questionnaires enabled there searcher easy to use and gain an understanding of the differences between the two household‘s categories under study and the perspective of the households in relation to farm forest plantation development

d Forest plantation product market surveys/人工林产品市场调查

Tree market surveys were conducted using a rapid survey format to identify and understand (i) plantation tree sp and products sold on the market, (ii) marketing channels and agents involved in the marketing of the tree products, and (iii) prices paid by buyers for various tree products The market survey was conducted by direct interview with farm households, small trade, market agents (middlemen/intermediaries), retailers at the district

and regional center of the Province (Bac Kan city) The information provided by the various stakeholders was followed through to the market chain until information concerning the market channel was complete The information gathered was cross-checked with direct observation by visiting tree market centers, informal discussions with key informants and review of relevant secondary information Managers at the local wood processing companies were also contacted to verify and also obtain information regarding prices paid for various forest plantation products The crosschecking process continued until the information gathered was clear and consistent

（3）Research phases and tools employed in the study/研究阶段与方法

The research was divided into three distinct parts as indicated in Figure 1.6 The first part (Part 1), involved the identification of the research problem, revision of past and current literature, determination of research goals and methods, and the formulation of research questionnaires In the second part (Part 2), the selected field assistants were trained to fully understand the content and procedure of the study, whilst the study households were sampled Pre-testing of the questionnaire was done to observe the reaction of the target respondents to the research procedures and data collection tools, assess the robustness and adequacy of issues covered in the questionnaire and to allow the respondents to comment on the issues Certain changes were made to the questionnaire following the pre-testing, most importantly, the revision of the sequence and wording of the questions The results from the pre-test also enabled the researcher to determine the best time to get the study population at home to provide answers to the questions and how much time is needed to administer the questionnaire The proposed methods used to establish contact with the study population were modified after the pre-test to conform to the local tradition

图 1.6 研究过程

Source: Field survey from author, 2018

Household socio-economic surveys, focus group discussions, tree inventory were conducted to get in-depth information at the household and community level as well as to cross-check the reliability of the gathered information In the last part (Part 3), the various field data were coded and entered into a computer for analysis Two different statistical programs, namely, Statistical software (Stata 14.0) and Excel 2010 software were used to analyze the results from the household survey

（4）Data analysis/数据分析

a Description statistics and comparative analysis/描述统计与比较分析

Descriptive statistics such as total, frequencies, percentages, range, maximum, minimum, mean score and standard deviation were computed for all the quantitative variables and information presented in the form of tables and graphs Descriptive statistics,

Part 3

Part 2

Identification of research

Questionnaire development

Determination of research goals

Review of past and current literature

on the research problem

Determination of research methods

Training field assistance

Sampling of household Pre-testing Questionnaire

Forest Planted Survey

Non-Forest Planted Survey

Focus Group Discussions and Household Survey

Interpretation and Synthesis

of results

Data Coding and Entry

Data Analysis

Part 1

Figure 1 6 Schematic representation of the research processes

according to Coakes and Steed (2007) is used to explore, summarize, and describe data In addition, descriptive statistics helps the researcher to meaningfully describe distribution of scores, display the data in good and simple or measurements using a few indices, so the researcher can interpret the data more easily (Bernard 2017) The qualitative data from the open ended questions were analyzed using conceptual content analysis The qualitative data, primary data were organized, classify, coded and thematically analyzed, searching for meaning and interpretation, and drew conclusions based on the concepts (Zibran, 2007) Numerous studies in the past also used descriptive statistics as tool to analyze income, such

as (Kuniyasu 2002), (Otsuka 2009) and (Hogarth and Belcher 2013)

b Binary Logistic method/二元 Logistic 方法

Whether farmers are willing to develop forest plantations or not is a binary choice problem, when dependent variable is a binary choice and it does not meet general multivariate regression analysis hypothesis, so we need to use the discrete dependent variable data by the econometric model The most commonly used discrete explained variable data econometric model is the logistic model This model uses a logical probability distribution function Logistic regression analysis is a well establish approach

in empirical studies focused on finding the determinants of adoption /investment decisions

in agricultural technology, agroforestry, and forest plantations

Analytical framework was used to identify the determinants influencing to establish plantation of households in the study area (see figure 1.7)

图 1.7 人工林种植决定影响因素的分析框架

Source: Previous research and field Survey, 2018

c Cost benefit analysis/成本效益分析

CBA is often used by researcher to assess the appeal of a given policy It is an analysis of benefits and costs of project CBA also helps predict whether the return of a policy higher its costs, and equal how much when compare with other alternatives (Cellini

et al 2010)

Broadly, CBA has two main roles: (1) to determine an investment is true or not – calculated whether its benefits higher the costs, and how much it equal; (2) to provide a envidence for these investments decision In CBA, benefits and costs are presented by money unit, and they are adjusted for the time value of money

A.mangium, Eucalyptus, and M.conifera sp are perennial crops for timber throughout

Economic, policy and institutional factors

- Price of wood

- Extension activities

- Policy on ownership land

- Policy on harvesting and transportation timber

Farm Forest Plantation Decision Making

Formulation of Objectives

- Needs

- Objectives (economic or non-economic)

Resource Endowments

- Size of household labor

- Size of household land and

land tenure arrangement

- Availability of land not

suitable for agricultural

Allocation of Resources to Establish and Manage Farm Forest Plantation

Outcome

Household Level Benefits

- Cash income

- Forest products

- Improve household well-being

Farm Level Benefits

- Improve land quality

- Improve local environmental conditions

Figure 1 7 Analytical framework the determinants influencing to establish plantations

the production cycle in the long-term investment, so there are three popular criteria used in CBA to forecast future cash flow, internal rate of return to analyze and evaluate the economic efficiency of forest plantation activities in this case: NPV is the sum of net benefits of an investment over a period in monetary value, IRR is true interest rate of an investment and is expressed as a percentage, and BCR is an indicator to show the relationship between the costs and benefits

The analytical framework to analysis economic performance in the long-term of forest plantation activities (A.mangium, Eucalyptus and M.conifera sp) and identify the endogenous and exogenous factors that affect to forest plantation income in study area was shown in figure 1.8

Factor affect to the revenue

1 Economic factors: wood price, market, cost production

2 Policy and institutional factors:

Extension activities, member of wood institution, FSC, Subsidy, PES, contract

3 Cultivation technology

Economic performance

- Level of investment, production results

- Measures of economic performance

- Efficiency of additional investment inputs

- Factors affect to economic performance

Factor affecting the cost

1 Household head characteristic (Gender,

age, education level, experience)

2 Household characteristic (Forest land

area, assets, total income)

3 Input factor (seed, fertilizers,

pesticides, labor, technical cultivation,

distance, tenure

Policy factors

Factor affect to decision on establishment of forest plantations

Economic performance of forest

plantation: NPV, IRR, BCR

Figure 1 8 The analytical framework economic performance of plantation in the long-term