Using the Adaptation Policy Framework to Assess Climate Risks and Response Measures in South Asia: The Case of Floods and Droughts in Bangladesh and India 11.1 INTRODUCTION South Asia is
Trang 1Using the Adaptation Policy Framework to
Assess Climate Risks and Response Measures in South Asia: The Case of Floods and Droughts in Bangladesh and India
11.1 INTRODUCTION
South Asia is noted for climate and hydrological extremes such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and cyclones The climate of South Asia is highly influenced by the Southwestmonsoon (see Chapter 1) More than three-quarters of the annual precipitation occurs inthe monsoon months (June-September) The onset and departure of the monsoon isspatially highly variable, so the precipitation is also The failure of the monsoon and highsummer temperatures leads to drought in many parts of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan Inthe Eastern Coast of India and in the coastal region of Bangladesh disastrous cyclones areregular visitors Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistancause disasters to life and property downstream, resulting in serious death tolls as well asthe destruction of valuable forests, farms and costly mountain infrastructure In Nepal andBhutan, 44 glacier lakes have been identified as potentially dangerous and which mayresult in GLOF (ICIMOD, 2001) In South Asia, particularly in the Himalayan region, thefrequency of the occurrence of GLOF events increased in the second half of the 20th
century
The 1990s was the warmest decade of the last century and several extreme climate
events occurred in the South Asia region In July of 1993, the Tistung station in Nepalregistered 540 mm rain over a 24-hour period triggering a severe flood Severe droughtsoccurred over large regions in India and Pakistan in 2000 Bangladesh experienced theworst flood in recent history in 1998 which engulfed about 70% of the country It appearsthat extreme climate events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, causing more deaths,injury, disability and disease, economic and social impacts in the impoverished nations ofSouth Asia (Table 11.1) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001)
concluded that there would be likely increases in intense precipitation events, droughts,tropical cyclone peak wind intensities and tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitationintensities in the future due to climate change Therefore, a dramatic increase in damage isalso expected
M MONIRUL QADER MIRZA
IAN BURTON
Trang 2Table 11.1 Extreme climate events and damages in selected countries in South Asia
* On average 475 persons died per event
* Extreme flood can cause economic damage of US$ 3 to
5 billion
* 40 million ha area are flood vulnerable
* Average flooding event affected 34 million people
* 1,595 people/event
* US$ 250 million economic loss/event
* During 1983-2000, 5,935 people died
* On average 330 people died per event
* In July of 1993, one single flood event killed 1,336 people
of US$ 1.5 million
* Floods affect urban areas severely
Trang 3Table 11.1 Continued
Drought * Past droughts typically
affected 47% of the country
* Affected 53% of the population
* On average, loss crop in drought is equal to a flood
* In 1979, drought created almost a famine like situation
* 68% of the landmass
is vulnerable to droughts
* Severe droughts occur once in every 9 years
* The 1987 drought affected 60% of the cropped area and 285 million people
* Droughts occur occasionally but effects are not significant
* Droughts affect agriculture severely
* In 2000-2001, due to drought GDP growth rate dropped to 2.6% as against targeted 5%
Cyclone * Cyclones affect Bangladesh
* In 1999, the Orissa super cyclone killed 10,000 people
Trang 45-year moving average
Fig 11.1 Damage due to floods/heavy rains in India during 1953-2000 Figures for 1999 and 2000 are tentative Data source: Singh, 2001.
11.2 ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK
While substantial literature exists (Carter et al., 1994; IPCC, 2001; US Country Study Program, 1996; and Feenstra et al., 1998) regarding climate change impacts, information on
Climate change poses a considerable risk to the future sustainable development ofcountries in South Asia How might the countries of the region best respond to theserisks? The diverse character and widespread nature of the risks is described as above.From these we have selected urban floods in Dhaka, Bangladesh and droughts in Gujarat,India as specific case studies
We have selectively drawn upon some of the concepts and methods in theAdaptation Policy Framework (APF) (Fig 11.2) (UNDP, 2004) and applied them to the twocase studies In doing so we recognize that present adaptation falls short of what isnecessary to prevent the further growth of vulnerability and damage potential There is infact a current adaptation deficit in coping with climate variability and extremes evenwithout taking into account the added risk associated with climate change (Burton, 2004)
For this reason we recognize two types of adaptation Type I Adaptation refers to current
adaptation strategy, policy, and measures without considering climate change Most of
the adaptation measures are in practice belong to Type I Type II Adaptation is the
additional adaptation that is required to cope with climate change
Because climate change risks have still not been factored into many developmentdecisions, and because awareness of the need for adaptation has still not been wellincorporated into the work of development agencies/ministries in the developingcountries and because adaptive capacity is lacking, not much Type II adaptation has takenplace In this regard, the APF has been designed to help factor climate change risks in
to development decisions in order to reduce vulnerability and facilitate sustainabledevelopment The APF approach is briefly described in Section 11.2 and some of the majorconcepts are described in Section 11.3 We then use the APF as a means of formulating ananalysis in the two case studies (Section 11.4) Finally, we discuss opportunities andchallenges associated with the APF with particular reference to the two case studies
282 A DAPTATION P OLICY F RAMEWORK T O A SSESS C LIMATE R ISKS
Trang 5adaptation policies and strategies is limited Burton et al (2002) commented that effective
adaptation policy had to be responsive to a wide variety of economic, social, political, andenvironmental circumstances In order to do so, a common framework of concepts, linkedtogether in a flexible manner is required Therefore the development of the AdaptationPolicy Framework (APF) has been motivated by the lack of practical guidance onadaptation to climate change The driving concern underlying the APF was thatdiscussions about climate change adaptation had not progressed significantly beyondthe identification of possible adaptation measures (UNDP, 2004) The goal of the APF is tohelp narrow a wide range of policy options and measures into site-specific policies forparticular climate risks Since the potential effects of climate change are pervasive,adaptation can include a wide range of responses and policies in all economic sectors andall regions (UNDP, 2001) The framework is intended to integrate short-, medium- andlong-term threats to national economic development planning, as well as the relevantcurrent policies and measures In designing the APF, coping with present climatevariability is seen as an effective way to reduce long-term vulnerability to climate change
Fig 11.2 Outline of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) process (UNDP, 2004).
Countries in South Asia have now conducted some studies (ADB Country StudyProgram, UNFCCC National Communications, US Country Study Program, etc.) under
Stage I Adaptation (Box 11.1) However, it is recognized that more work is needed to
progress to the next step and to prepare for Stage II Adaptation (Box 11.1), towards which
the APF is specifically directed Over the long-term, this framework is critical for preparing
the ground for detailed analysis in Stage III Adaptation (Box 11.1).
The APF has five major steps (Fig 11.2) compared to the seven steps of the “first
generation” of impact and vulnerability assessment method (Carter et al., 1994) The APF
(UNDP, 2004) is more robust and flexible and its “first generation” counterpart anddesigned to fit present and future requirement in terms of climate variability and change.The five-step analysis is supported by 9 Technical Papers (TPs) which are: APF ProjectScope and Design, Stakeholder Engagement in the Adaptation Process, VulnerabilityAssessment for Climate Adaptation, Vulnerability Assessment for Climate Adaptation,
TP 1 – PROJECT SCOPE AND DESIGN
TP 3 – VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
TP 4 – CURRENT CLIMATE RISKS
TP 5 – FUTURE CLIMATE RISKS
TP 6 – SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
TP 8 – ADAPTATION STRATEGY
TP 9 – CONTINUING ADAPTATION
Continuing the adaptation process
Characterizing future climate risks
Developing an adaptation strategy
Trang 6Assessing Current Climate Risks, Assessing Future Climate Risks, Socio-EconomicConditions, Measuring and Enhancing Adaptive Capacity, Formulation of an AdaptiveStrategy and Continuing the Adaptation Process The APF and TPs can be downloadedfrom http://www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm.
11.3 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION: A BRIEF SYNTHESIS
11.3.1 VULNERABILITY
The concept of vulnerability has gone through a comprehensive evolution process in thelast few decades Generally it is defined from three perspectives: natural hazard, climatechange and variability and entitlement
From a natural hazards perspective Blaikie et al (1994) defined vulnerability as “…the
characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with,resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard (p.57)” It is focused on only humansystems and three temporal situations in terms of natural extreme events that causehazards are taken into account: pre-event and post-event and during the event Theauthors also argue that vulnerability “…is a measure of a person or group’s exposure tothe effects of a natural hazard, including the degree to which they can recover from theimpact of that event (p.57)” The exposure refers to physical, economic and humanwell-being and recovery is related to adaptive capacity and resiliency
Kelly and Adger (2000) widened the definition of vulnerability as “…the ability orinability of individuals or social groupings to respond to, in the sense of cope with, recoverfrom or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being (p.300).”Their approach focuses on existing “wounds” (or prior damage), which might limitcapacity to respond to stresses and are independent of future threats
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) broadened naturalhazard perspective based definition by focusing on the future as well as incorporatingnatural systems in addition to human system It defines vulnerability as “…the degree towhich a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character,magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, itssensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (p.18).”
Many authors (e.g., Liverman, 1994; Adger and Kelly, 1999) have argued for the use
of a political economy framework, often using the “entitlements approach” which begins
Box 11.1 Initial Guidance from the Conference of the Parties on Adaptation (Decision 11/CP.1)
Stage I: “Planning, which includes studies of possible impacts of climate change
to identify particularly vulnerable countries or regions and policy options for adaptation and appropriate capacity building”
Stage II: “Measures, including further capacity building which may be taken to
prepare for adaptation as envisaged in Article 4.1(e)”
Stage III: “Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, including insurance and
other adaptation measures as envisaged by articles 4.1(b) and 4.4”
284 A DAPTATION P OLICY F RAMEWORK T O A SSESS C LIMATE R ISKS
Trang 7at household level (developed by Sen (1981, 1987), in analyses of vulnerability Ahousehold’s food entitlement consists of the food that the household can obtain throughproduction, exchange, or extra-legal legitimate conventions - such as reciprocal relations
or kinship obligations (Drèze and Sen, 1989) Ribot (1996) argues this approachintroduces a household perspective on vulnerability, one that replaces “eco-centric”approaches to environmental change The main contribution of this approach lies, perhaps,
in its focus on the vulnerability of individuals and social groups Within this framework
vulnerability is understood as being determined by access to resources-specifically, byindividuals’ “entitlement” to call on these resources Watts and Bohle (1993), using Drèzeand Sen’s (1989) analysis of entitlements, argue that vulnerability is configured by themutually constituted triad of entitlements, empowerment and political economy Hereempowerment is the ability to shape the political economy that in turn shapes entitlement.The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (1999) definesvulnerability from the food security perspective as “the presence of factors that place people
at risk of becoming food insecure or malnourished.” This definition focuses on causes offood insecurity due to human interventions, such as political decisions, armed conflicts andinternational economic embargo Inappropriate political decisions often cause hunger inSub-Saharan Africa and Asia; armed conflicts either do not allow food distribution orpurchase of food due to diversion of resources for buying military hardware/software; andinternational economic embargoes often lead to hunger by limiting a country or government’sspending power or accumulation of economic resources
11.3.2 ADAPTATION
A number of definitions of adaptation can be found in the literature IPCC (2001) defined
adaptation as an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climate stimuli and their effects or impacts, which moderates harm or exploits beneficialopportunities It refers to changes in processes, practices and structures to moderatepotential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change Smithersand Smit (1997) describe adaptation as involving “change in a system in response to someforce or perturbation” Pielke (1998) refers adaptation “to adjustment in individual, groupand institutional behavior in order to reduce society’s vulnerabilities to climate Adger(2001) views adaptation as a dynamic social process and believes that the ability of asociety to act collectively determines its ability to adapt
11.3.2.1 ADAPT TO WHAT?
Adaptation occurs in both natural and socio-economic systems (Burton et al., 1998).
People generally adapt and practice measures to adapt to the variability of natural climateand extreme weather events Human intervention modifies the threat of natural variability.However, human action can cause irreversible damage to systems and their natural
resiliency may be lost Burton et al (1993) pointed out that human activities are not
always as well adapted to climate as they might be The mounting losses from great naturaldisasters are in substantial part associated with extreme weather events Therefore, in asituation where natural climate and hydrologic systems have been modified by humanintervention, even efficiently designed corrective measures might be proven to be eitherpartially effective or ineffective
Trang 811.3.2.2 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
IPCC (2001) defined adaptive capacity as the potential, capability, or ability of a system toadapt to climate change stimuli or their effects or impacts Adaptive capacity depends on anumber of determinants that include: socio-economic wealth, governance, technology,information and skills, infrastructure, institutions and equity Among these determinants,socio-economic factors are the most important determinants that help develop adaptivecapacity
Socio-economic factors affect the ability of a system to absorb (robustness) orrespond to changes that occur to natural system due to natural causes or human
interventions (Smith et al., 1998) In South Asia, socio-economic conditions of various
economic groups, location and living conditions, inequality between rural and urbanpopulation (including their intra inequality) and gender broadly defines exposure of thesegroups to extreme weather events or human interventions
11.3.2.3 ADAPTATION TYPES
Various types of adaptation include anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private andpublic adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation Salient features of varioustypes of adaptation are presented in Table 11.2
11.3.2.4 ADAPTATION MEASURES
There are many potential adaptation measures that may be adopted in response to climate
change and variability Burton et al (1993) divided them into the following eight
categories depending on the individual’s choice of options The choice typology has beenextended to include the role of community structures, institutional arrangements, andpublic policies (also see Fig 11.3) Table 11.3 summarizes the measures
286 A DAPTATION P OLICY F RAMEWORK T O A SSESS C LIMATE R ISKS
Trang 9Fig 11.3 Classification of adaptation options (Burton et al., 1993).
Table 11.3 Classification of adaptation measures
Classification Examples
family sharing
(e.g flood control, coastal surge protection)
Prevent the events or their
human settlement and livestock population
rice varieties that can remain underwater for a longer period, etc
Education for behavioral
change
Saving water to reduce climate driven water demand;
conservation of energy to reduce cooling demand, etc
11.4 PRESENT VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION MEASURES AND POLICIES
IN SOUTH ASIA: URBAN FLOODING IN DHAKA
11.4.1 URBAN FLOODS IN DHAKA, BANGLADESH
Bangladesh acts as the drainage outlet for the three large rivers: the Ganges, Brahmaputra
and Meghna (GBM) Huge rainfall in the basins during the monsoon, geographical
Share the Loss
On-Site Operations
Bear the Loss Modify the Ev ents Prevent the Effects Change Use Change Location Research Education, Behavioral
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Trang 10In the 1980s and 1990s, three extreme floods in 1987, 1988 and 1998 engulfed 36%,63% and 69% of the country, respectively and caused human, environmental andeconomic devastation in Bangladesh During the flood of 1988, Dhaka City - the capital ofBangladesh was severely affected Again in 1998, a catastrophic flood engulfed the greaterDhaka area in the months of August and September Due to the flooding, about 56% of thegreater Dhaka was submerged, and affected about 1.9 million people (30% of thepopulation).
proximity and flat terrain of Bangladesh make it highly vulnerable to recurring flooding
On average about 20.5% of Bangladesh gets inundated annually In extreme flooding years,the extent of inundation may be as much as 70% Figure 11.4 shows year to year extent offlooding in Bangladesh Four types of floods commonly occur in Bangladesh: flash,riverine, rainfall and storm-surge floods (Box 11.2)
Fig 11.4 Extent of flooded area (%) in Bangladesh from 1954 to 2001 Source: Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), Dhaka.
Box 11.2 Bangladesh flood types
The Northern, Northeastern and Southeast parts of Bangladesh are vulnerable to
flash floods They usually occur due to a heavy rainfall in the neighboring hills and
mountains in India as well as in Bangladesh The normal period of flash flooding
is late April to early May Riverine floods are caused by over bank spillage of
monsoon flows in the major rivers and their distributaries Riverine floods may occur several times depending on timing and magnitude of rainfall in the basins
and may prolong for months in the monsoon (June-September) Rainfall floods
occur when high local rainfall generates huge volume of runoff in the rivers and streams exceeding the drainage capacity Occurrences of such floods are common
when the three major rivers are at high stages Storm-surge floods occur during
October-December and April-May in the low-lying coastal areas of Bangladesh Tropical cyclones generate storm-surges that bring tidal bores often 9 m high (Ahmed and Mirza, 2000)
288 A DAPTATION P OLICY F RAMEWORK T O A SSESS C LIMATE R ISKS
Trang 1111.4.2 VULNERABILITY OF DHAKA TO FLOOD HAZARDS
Dhaka City is highly vulnerable to flooding and subsequent hazards (Fig 11.5) for a
number of reasons First, the city is surrounded by the distributaries of the two major
rivers, the Brahmaputra and Meghna The surrounding rivers are Buriganga to the South,Turag to the West, Tongi Khal to the North and Balu to the East The combined area ofDhaka East and Dhaka West known as Greater Dhaka covers an area approximately
275 km2 (JICA, 1991) Dhaka is situated on a flat terrain which makes it vulnerable toflooding The elevation of Greater Dhaka is only 2 m-13 m above mean sea level (MSL)and most of the urbanized areas are at 6 m-8 m above msl About 62% area of GreaterDhaka is below 6 m (JICA, 1987) This is consistent with the overall elevation of Bangladeshwhere 80% of land area is below 12 m above MSL
Second, Dhaka’s population has been growing at a very fast rate Urbanization in
Bangladesh is poverty driven-caused by an unsustainable rural economy characterized
by extreme entitlement contraction among the majority of marginalized peasantry
(Barkat et al., 1997) Other causes include riverbank erosion, flooding, droughts and
cyclones The present population of the Dhaka Metropolitan Area is more than 10 million.The last decadal growth rate was about 70%, though the population growth rate was evenhigher In the decade 1981-1991, population doubled Population statistics of Dhaka Cityshow that the annual growth rate was 2.9% (1951-1961), 10.2% (1961-1974) and 8.1%(1974-1981) (Table 11.4)
Third, poverty is another important factor that makes the poor sections of Dhaka
more vulnerable to flooding About 30% of Dhaka’s population is classified as a hardcorepoor (per capita monthly income ≤US$ 43) and 50% as poor (per capita monthly income
≤US$ 65) Altogether about 3 million or nearly one-third of Dhaka’s population live in2,100 slums and squatter settlements (Rahman and Tariquzzaman, 2001) In particular,Dhaka suffers from shortage of basic infrastructure and services such as water supply,sanitation, solid waste disposal and transport The problem is not only shortage, but alsounequal distribution of service, with much of the impact absorbed by low income andpoorer section of Dhaka
Fourth, loss of internal water bodies increases the vulnerability to flooding Dhaka
used to have a number of canals (Dhoali Khal, Begunbari Khal, etc.) connected to thesurrounding rivers and large water bodies Most of these canals and water bodies havedisappeared over the last 3-4 decades mainly due to private and public encroachments.Therefore, drainage congestion is a regular event and flooding from drainage overflow is asevere problem even after a moderate shower The water depth in some areas may be ashigh as 40 cm-60 cm, which results in large infrastructure problems for the city, economiclosses in production, and damage to existing property and goods (Huq and Alam, 2003)
Fifth, loss of carrying capacity of surrounding rivers increases vulnerability Dhaka is
surrounded by four rivers: Buriganga, Turag, Tongi Khal and Balu Over the years,the water carrying capacity of these rivers has been lost due to siltation and illegalencroachments Therefore, floodwater quickly overtops the bank and inundates thesurrounding urban area Recession of floodwaters also takes longer time for the samereason
Sixth, rapid urbanization and built-up areas lead to shortening of the runoff
concentration time and an increase of the peak flow In the last three decades rapidurbanization has occurred in Dhaka Therefore a substantial increase in development ofresidential and commercial areas has taken place to accommodate rapid growth ofpopulation at the initiatives of private land developers, real state business and public
Trang 13sector These actions resulted in substantial growth of impervious areas, createdobstruction to natural drainage patterns, and reduced detention basins Bari and Hasan(2001) investigated the effects of urbanization on runoff concentration time and peak flowwith the aid of NAM1 conceptual model and the Rational Formula2 (Kuichling, 1889) andfound an increased volume of runoff with the increase of built-up areas in Dhaka City.
Table 11.4 Population of Dhaka in various decades
1 The NAM conceptual lumped hydrologic model was developed by the Technical University of Denmark in 1973 and is widely applied in Bangladesh.
2 Kuichling (1889) first applied the Rational Method to estimate peak discharge The formula is
Qp = FCIA, where F = unit conversion factor, C = runoff coefficient, I = intensity of rainfall (mm/hr) and A = drainage area (km 2 ).
3 In Bangladesh danger level at a river location is the level above which it is likely that the flood may cause damages to nearby crops and homesteads In a river having no embankment, danger level is about annual average flood level In an embanked river danger level is fixed slightly below design flood level of the embankment.
Dhaka City was also severely affected by the 1998 flood (Fig 11.6) The water levels inthe rivers surrounding Dhaka approached the respective danger levels in the second half
of July and crossed the danger levels in mid-August Peak floods usually occur in the lastweek of August and the first two weeks of September and floodwater recedes in the lastten days of September The floods of 1987 and 1988 followed this pattern However,during the flood of 1998, the water levels crossed the danger levels almost a month earlier
and stayed there until the last week of September (Faisal et al., 2003) Peak water levels,
return period and days above the danger level3 of the Buriganga River are given inTable 11.5 Seventy out of ninety, Dhaka City corporations were under water (Jahan, 2000).The flood affected almost all aspects of human life including income, health and occupation.People of various income and occupation suffered in varying degrees, and there were alsosignificant spatial variations in the impact of the flood (Jahan, 2000)
11.4.3 ADAPTATION AND COPING MECHANISMS
The location of the Dhaka City has made it particularly vulnerable to floods It issurrounded by the Buriganga to the South, Turag to the West, Tongi Khal to the North,and Balu to the East Dhaka City and the adjoining areas are composed of alluvial terraces
of the Southern part of the Madhupur tract and low-lying areas of doab of the rivers
Meghna and Lakhya The city suffered from flooding mainly due to the spillage of the
Trang 14Fig 11.6 Flooded area in Dhaka during 1998 floods Source: Faisal et al., 2003 Reprinted with the
permission of Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands.
Table 11.5 Water levels in the Buriganga River and their return periods
River/Station Flood
Year
Danger Level
Peak Level
Return Period
Days Above Danger Level
(Huq and Alam, 2003; Hye, 1999; Faisal et al., 1999; and Jahan, 2000).
Dhaka Flood Protection Embankment: The first flood protection embankment was
the Buckland Flood Protection Embankment along the Buriganga River constructedduring the early period of the British rule It was the first attempt to mitigate flood damage
292 A DAPTATION P OLICY F RAMEWORK T O A SSESS C LIMATE R ISKS
Trang 15in Dhaka City (Huq and Alam, 2003) In the wake of the 1988 floods, construction of anembankment encircling Dhaka City was commenced under a “crash programme” UnderPhase I of the project, a flood protection embankment for the Western part of the city was
completed However, the Eastern part of the city remains unprotected (Faisal et al., 1999).
As a result, almost the entire Eastern block was inundated during floods in 1998 Althoughthe embankment provides some protection, it has increased vulnerability to flooding
Unplanned urbanization is taking place in the low-lying areas adjacent to the Western part
of the embankment In 1998, about 20% of the Western block was also inundated byfloods
Non-Structural Measures: Important non-structural measures include flood
forecasting and warning, retention ponds, natural water bodies and drainage network,land-use planning and relief and rehabilitation Other practiced non-structural measuresare summarized in Table 11.6
The FFWC of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) administers flood forecasting and warning in collaboration with the Institute of Water Modeling (IWM),
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Space Research and Remote SensingOrganization (SPARRSO) Three hydrologic forecasting techniques-MIKE 11 SimulationModel, Muskingum/Cunge Flood Routing Method and Gauge-to-Gauge correlation used.The FFWC provides flood and river forecasts for 16 locations for 24-h and 48-h periods
In addition to this, it also provides daily river level and rainfall data for 50 rivers and
49 rainfall stations Although these warnings are useful, a forecast in terms of inundationarea would be more useful in making people understand the danger of floods Apart fromradio, TV and newspapers, there is no community-based mechanism to communicate floodforecasting and warning to the city dwellers
Dhaka City used to have many natural water bodies, which functioned as a buffer forfloodwaters Over the years, the natural water bodied dwindled significantly due to publicencroachments for land development Virtually no natural water bodies left in the old part
of the city Encroachments are continuing even in the new upscale residential areas ofGulshan, Banani and Baridhara The minimum standard for a retention pond is 12% of theurban area whereas the present area is estimated to be less than 4% (RAJUK, 1995) Thegovernment has recently issued a decree banning the filling in of any wetland for urbandevelopment (Huq and Alam, 2003)
Jahan (2000) investigated socio-economic coping mechanisms in Dhaka City duringfloods in 1998 The poorer sections of the society were hard-hit as the duration of theflood was more than two months Many used up their savings and in addition, borrowedmoney to survive (Fig 11.7) More than 35% of the credit came from relatives followed byshopkeepers and neighbors Some people sold assets and mortgaged properties to buyfood and other daily necessities Help and assistance also came from various public andprivate organizations in terms of food, clothing, housing materials, medicine, waterpurification tablets, money, etc (Table 11.7) Among the respondents, 44% and 40% saidthat they partly and completely recovered from the flood The remaining 16% could notrecover at all
11.4.4 DROUGHTS IN INDIA: CASE STUDY OF GUJARAT
High drought prone areas in India are located mainly in the Western part of the countrywith arid and semi-arid climate (Fig 11.8) However, occasionally other parts of the countryare also vulnerable to droughts The Planning Commission of India identified 54 droughtprone districts distributed over 13 states (Kulshrestha, 1997) In India a drought is
Trang 16Table 11.6 Non-structural activities practiced by various groups
temporary housing, shelter
Widely practiced but limited to accessible places
flood walls along properties, raising important roads and some power stations above the 1988 flood level, special embankment for the Zia International Airport
Minimum ground elevation proposed for houses for the eastern part of the city
pumping, moving assets to upper floors, roof or elevated high grounds such as roads and embankments
People fight with floods until unbearable
buildings, roads, embankments
No specific urban flood shelters, other facilities used
as shelters are either not designed as such or have insufficient capacity
Recovery and
reconstruction
Vulnerable group feeding, food for work, supply of building materials, soft or interest free loans for business and agriculture
Affected group specially the poor people has limited access to such help Misappropriation of relief and rehabilitation material or fund is common
Note: Modified from Faisal et al (1999).
Trang 17Source: Jahan, 2000.
In 2000, Gujarat and some other Indian states were severely hit by a drought
It affected 25 million people in 17 out of 25 districts Most severely impacted districts
were: Kutch, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Rajkot, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Surendranagar, Mehsana,
Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Panchmahals, Vadodara, Bharuch and Saurastra
In 1987, another severe drought hit India Rainfall in seven meteorological
subdivisions was significantly lower than normal: Saurastra, Kutch and Diu (-74%), West
Rajasthan (-67%), Haryana and Delhi (-67%), Punjab (-58%), Himachal Pradesh (-51%),
Plains of West Uttar Pradesh (-51%) and East Rajasthan (-50%) The drought was caused
considered to be “moderate” if the deficiency is between 26%-50% of the normal rainfall
and “severe” if the rainfall deficiency is greater than 50% of the normal (IMD, 1971; GOI,
1976) The largest number of droughts occurred in the first quarter of the last century The
second quarters of both centuries experienced comparatively small number of droughts
Agencies
Non-Govt
Agencies
Voluntary Agencies
Fig 11.7 Distribution of households by sources of credit Source: Jahan, 2000.
Table 11.7 Percentage distribution of households by types and sources of assistance