Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia - Chapter 1 ppt

Ahmad 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Water Availability and Demand in South Asia 2 1.3 Climate Change and Water Resources 8 1.4 Climate Change and Future Water Challenges 8 2 HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Climate Change and

Water Resources in South Asia

Climate Change and Water Resources

in South Asia

Edited by

M Monirul Qader Mirza

Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG)

Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada

c/o-Institute for Environmental Studies (IES)

Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK

All rights reserved No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written prior permission from the publishers.

Although all care is taken to ensure the integrity and quality of this publication and the information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers nor the authors for any damage to property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein.

Published by: A.A Balkema Publishers, Leiden, The Netherlands,

a member of Taylor & Francis Group plc

www.balkema.nl, www.tandf.co.uk, www.crcpress.com

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

ISBN 0 415 36442 6

Printed in Great Britain

In memory of my uncles M Akramuzzaman, Dr Mirza Muzibul Huq and Dr

M Ashrafuzzaman.

M Monirul Qader Mirza

To my sons Rushdy and Urfi and daughter-in-law Farzin.

Q K Ahmad

Table of Contents

Foreword Don MacIver xiii

Preface xv

About the Editors xix

About the Authors xxi

Acronyms xxiii

1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH ASIA: AN INTRODUCTION M Monirul Qader Mirza Q K Ahmad 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Water Availability and Demand in South Asia 2 1.3 Climate Change and Water Resources 8 1.4 Climate Change and Future Water Challenges 8 2 HYDROLOGIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN SOUTH ASIA M Monirul Qader Mirza 2.1 Introduction 23

2.2 Hydrologic Models 23

2.3 Advantages and Limitations of Hydrologic Models in Climate Change Application 32

2.4 Application of Hydrologic Models for Climate Change Impact Assessment in Bangladesh 35

2.5 Application of Hydrologic Model in India 45

2.6 Application of Models in Pakistan 46

2.7 Summary and Concluding Remarks 48

4.3 Hydro-Climatic Analysis of Flooding in Bangladesh 80

4.6 Assessing Adaptation Under Conditions of Profound Uncertainty 89

5.7 Socio-Economic Effects of Changes in Inundation Categories 131

viii T ABLE O F C ONTENTS

6.3 Studies About Glacier Lakes and Their Outburst Events in

9.5 Climate Change and Water Resources Sector in Bangladesh 244

11

USING THE ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS AND RESPONSE MEASURES IN SOUTH ASIA: THE CASE OF FLOODS AND DROUGHTS IN BANGLADESH AND INDIA

M Monirul Qader Mirza

Ian Burton

11.4 Present Vulnerability and Adaptation Measures and Policies

11.9 Adaptation Policy Framework: Opportunities and Challenges 307

x T ABLE O F C ONTENTS

South Asia is home to a population of more than a billion and a quarter The originalsettlers on the subcontinent made this region their home essentially on the attraction of richand fertile land and abundant water resources With rapid growth in the population,particularly during the last century, the scarcity of water resources has reached an alarminglevel, making this a subject deserving of deep attention and an area where major policyinitiatives become essential Agriculture is still a significant contributor to the GDP of thecountries of South Asia, and well over half the population of the region is dependent onagriculture or agriculture-related activities The dominance of the monsoon as a majorsource of water supply and the seasonal nature of precipitation in the region, makes themanagement of water through irrigation a crucial determinant of agricultural activity Withindustrial growth and urbanization, the demand for water in the industrial sector and intowns and cities is also increasing rapidly The problem is compounded by periodic droughts

in certain years and excessive floods particularly during the monsoon season Both thesephenomena lead to large-scale destruction of infrastructure, property and lives of livestockand human beings The problem of climate change is likely to amplify these problems in thefuture

The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC clearly highlights the likelihood of droughtsand floods increasing in the future The Fourth Assessment Report is likely to shed furtherlight on this problem, particularly given the fact that water has been included as across-cutting theme for this report Possible shifts in the onset and adequacy of monsoons,the retreat of glaciers and changes in magnitude and variability in temperature willintroduce significant changes in water resources availability and uses in South Asia The

anthology “Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia” is a timely contribution

to improving knowledge on the impacts of climate variability and changes in waterresources in South Asia and related adaptation measures The editors and the contributorsare to be congratulated on an important publication

R K Pachauri

Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC),

Geneva, Switzerland

& Director-General, The Energy &

Resources Institute (TERI),

New Delhi, India

There is a growing concern across the world about climate variability and change, andassociated vulnerability, impacts and adaptation for various economic sectors Over thelast decade, the Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG), Meteorological Service

of Canada, Environment Canada has contributed significantly to the science ofvulnerability, impacts and adaptation (VIA) research nationally and internationally InCanada, the AIRG led and contributed to a number of climate change and VIA projects thatinclude: Canada Country Study; Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project; CCMEClimate Change Indicators Project; Natural Hazards and Disasters in Canada; ClimateChange-Human and Animal Diseases; Climate Change and Water Resources in the GreatLakes and Climate Change and the Canadian Energy Sector One of the mandates of theAIRG is to contribute to international research projects and initiatives in the field of climatechange and VIA research The AIRG significantly contributed to the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations (UN); the Millennium EcosystemAssessment of the UN; the Canada-China Cooperation in Climate Change (C5) Project;The AIACC AS25 Project, THORPEX-A Global Atmospheric Program and the STARDEXProject In addition to East Asia and the Caribbean, South Asia is also becoming an area ofinterest of the AIRG in terms of climate change and VIA studies This anthology is thethird initiative of our international commitment towards South Asia Previously, Dr M

Monirul Mirza edited the anthology “Flood Problem and Management in South Asia”and

“The Ganges Water Diversion: Envronmental Effects and Implications” published by the

Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands

South Asia is a region of diverse climates Livelihood and sustenance of developmentare highly climate driven Floods, droughts and cyclones regularly batter economicsectors and infrastructure and cause deaths to human and livestock population Futurechanges in the South Asian climates and the sea level rise especially the monsoon, willhave significant impacts on water supply and demand, floods and droughts, changes insoil moisture, soil degradation, saline water intrusion, pollution of surface and groundwaters and faster melting of the Himalayan glaciers These changes will have profoundeffects on various economic sectors and the livelihoods of millions of people, especiallythe poorest section of the South Asian society In order to reduce vulnerability, there is anurgent need to design and implement adaptation measures It is also warranted thatadaptation be integrated into national development plans of the South Asian nations, as acontinuous process These issues are discussed in the 11 Chapters of this anthology

“Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia” It is indeed a significant

contribution from which scientists, vulnerability, adaptation and impact researchers and

policy makers will be benefited I congratulate the editors, authors, reviewers andpublisher of the anthology for their tremendous hard work in making this noble project asuccess.

Don MacIver

Director, Adaptation and Impacts

Research Group (AIRG),

Meteorological Service of Canada,

Environment Canada

xiv F OREWORD

This anthology presents analyses of research works from five countries of South Asiawho share a number of transboundary river basins It contains 11 chapters, which addressmost of the fundamental issues related to climate variability, climate change and waterresources in South Asia The journey towards this anthology began six years ago when

we started working with the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations During the IPCC TAR process, wefelt that there was not enough information readily available on the potential effects offuture climate change on water resources of South Asia The initiative received a strongsupport from Dr Janjaap Blom, Taylor and Francis Publishers, The Netherlands when thefirst editor of this anthology met him during the “International Conference on WaterResources Management in Arid Regions” in March of 2002 in Kuwait

In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressed itsconcern that the enhanced greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emission would result

on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere and that mightadversely affect natural ecosystems and humankind A few years later, theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Reportcategorically bolstered this concern The IPCC-TAR released in 2001 stated “…There isnew and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years isattributed to human activities” It further expressed that warming in the last century hadcontributed to the observed sea level rise, through thermal expansion of seawater andwidespread loss of sea ice Evidence of the link between climate change and increasingclimate variability has been mounting rapidly In a climate change regime, the range ofuncertainty of climate and weather will increase Overall, the whole climate and hydrologicsystem will be impacted However, there will be regional variations The implications

of climate variability and change for water resources sector, therefore, warrant updatedinformation and a complete understanding in order to design and implement adaptation.Why should climate change be so important for the water sector in South Asia?Monsoon is an integral part of the hydrologic cycle and water availability in South Asia.Global Climate Models (GCM) are in general agreement that future climate change will have

a profound impact on monsoon This will eventually affect availability of water resources

as well as development and investment dynamics The IPCC-TAR indicates the possibility

of increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as floods,droughts, and heat waves, which are very common in the countries of South Asia.They often severely affect lives and property, create food insecurity, and accelerate theprocess of poverty in many parts of the region In April of 2004, scientists in the periodical

Nature predicted that a meltdown of the 3 km thick massive Greenland ice sheets due to

global warming would swamp many low-lying areas of the globe that include parts ofSouth Asia

There are many difficulties in precisely estimating the impacts of climate change onwater resources They include physical and climatic characteristics of a river basin, selection

of hydrologic model and scenarios, availability of hydro-meteorological and socio-economicdata and computing and financial resources Chapters included in this anthology followedthe standard methods for impact assessment established by the IPCC and by many otherregional and sectoral studies

What will be the potential impacts of climate variability and change on water resources

of South Asia? Large areas in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh are vulnerable to recurrentfloods In Nepal and Bhutan, Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are becoming seriousthreats to human settlements Southern provinces of Pakistan and Western India are usuallyaffected by acute droughts Loss of human lives, livestock population, and propertyare on the rise due to catastrophic natural hazards Landslides during torrential rainsdisrupt communication and supply sediments to dams/reservoirs and river channels.Floods and droughts also threaten water quality and eventually human health While inmonsoon there is huge surplus of water in South Asia, the water availability picture in thedry season is just the opposite In the dry season, the supply of water cannot simply meetthe demand, which causes intra-country and inter-country water disputes In a warmerclimate, these problems are expected to exacerbate across South Asia with some degree ofuncertainties

In a warmer climate in the future, the excess water in monsoon and drought situation(hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) in the dry months will cause a number of

water allocation and management problems Flood management will be a major issue in

Nepal, India, and Bangladesh Existing flood mitigation/control structures and non-structuralmeasures will need to be strengthened and tailored to meet the future challenges in a

climate change regime Drought management will become a much more serious challenge

for India, Pakistan and to a lesser degree for Bangladesh Irrigation for agriculture remains

by far the largest water consumer in the region The efficiency of irrigation in the regionalcountries is generally low, and many perverse incentives constrain efforts to improve thesituation Efficiency of irrigation needs to be improved sufficiently to reduce water demandand structural reforms are required to improve water management Due to rapid urbanization,

domestic water demand is gradually increasing With rapid economic and urban

development water, demand will continue to increase Climate change will act as an additionalfactor to the increasing drinking water demand Water-borne diseases contribute to highinfant mortality in South Asia where access to clean drinking water is limited In the aridregions especially of Western India and Southern Pakistan shortages of water supply

become acute during a drought Regional cooperation on the sharing of water of the

transboundary rivers remains a contentious issue in South Asia Management of waterquality of the transboundary rivers is another emerging issue, which will need adequateattention in the future In recent years, there is encouraging progress in towards organizingjoint responses to the common threat of flooding and other hydrological disasters Scope

of cooperation will need to be widened and the cooperative framework strengthened formutual benefits

Knowledge on vulnerability and adaptation (VA) can inspire people to mobilizeresources and initiate/strengthen action to lessen the impacts of climate variability and

change The science of VA has received serious attention in the IPCC process In recent

years, in terms of global warming, present and future VA activities are given equalimportance The concept is that the assessment of present vulnerability and adaptationwill help identify the gaps, and addressing them is a step forward towards steeping thefuture In the water sector in South Asia, a variety of adaptation/mitigation measures are

under implementation However, an adaptation policy framework per se is missing.

xvi P REFACE

A framework is necessary in order adaptation policies can be properly formulated withreference to different levels of society - national to local levels.

Many reviewers spent a great deal of time in critically reviewing the chapters.Farzana Abdulhusein patiently and carefully prepared the camera-ready copy Jane Devie,Department of Geography University of Toronto drew many maps and graphs ProfessorMarie Sanderson at the Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG), EnvironmentCanada reviewed some of the chapters and offered constructive comments We gratefullyacknowledge all of these contributions Funding support for preparing the manuscriptswas provided by the AIRG Our sincere appreciation and thanks to Don MacIver, Director

of the AIRG for his support We are grateful to the contributors of this book who investedenormous amounts of time in preparing the chapters Without their sincere efforts thisbook would not have materialized Finally, the views expressed in this book are those of theauthors and do not reflect the views of their respective organizations

M Monirul Qader Mirza

Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG)

Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada

c/o-Institute for Environmental Studies (IES)

About the Editors

Dr M Monirul Qader Mirza has extensively researched on hydrological and climate

extremes, natural hazards and their management, climate change and water resources andassociated vulnerability, impact and adaptation and environmental impacts of waterdiversions from the transboundary rivers He received his PhD from the InternationalGlobal Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand on climatechange and flooding in Bangladesh in 1998 He contributed as a Coordinating Lead Author(CLA) to the Special Regional Report and the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations and to theMillennium Ecosystem Assessment Presently he is contributing as a CLA to the IPCC’sFourth Assessment Report, Working Group II He is currently with the Adaptation andImpacts Research Group (AIRG), Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada

He is also an Adjunct Professor at the Institute for Environmental Studies (IES), University

of Toronto, Canada He has been declared as a Burtoni Fellow of the MeteorologicalService of Canada for the year 2004-2005 He has recently been appointed as the Editor of

“Adaptation Science”, a quarterly Newsletter of the AIRG He is a member of the American

Society of Civil Engineers and Professional Engineers, Ontario, Canada

Dr Q K Ahmad is a socio-economic specialist of international repute and has to his credit

a wide range of research work on environment and water resources, climate change, policyplanning, food and agriculture, rural development, poverty alleviation, humandevelopment, technology and employment generation, women in development andgender issues He extensively studied various issues related to water resourcesdevelopment and cooperation in the South Asia Region He received his PhD from theLondon School of Economics and Political Science, London University in 1976 He is

Chairman and Chief Executive, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP), Dhaka He was the

President and International Vice-President of the Association of Development Researchand Training Institutes of Asia and the Pacific (ADIPA), Kuala Lumpur and Society forInternational Development (SID), Rome, respectively During 1998-2001, he acted as aCoordinating Lead Author to the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report Presently he iscontributing as a Lead Author to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II

About the Authors

Ahsan Uddin Ahmed is the Director, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP)-Centre for

Water and Environment, Niketon, Gulshan-1, Dhaka, Bangladesh His research focuses onclimate change, vulnerability, impacts and adaptation; regional cooperation in watersharing; environment and resource management for sustainable development

Asad Sarwar Qureshi is presently Head of International Water Management Institute

(IWMI) office in Iran where he is focusing on increasing water productivity of dry andmarginal lands He has long been associated with the adaptive research aimed at irrigationmanagement to increase land and water productivity especially in the Indus basin He hasspecial interests in integrated water management modeling to evaluate the impacts ofdifferent water management strategies on crop production and environment

Gary Yohe is the John E Andrus Professor of Economics at Wesleyan University,

Connecticut, USA He has been working in the climate area for more than 20 years, withspecific focus on coping with the sources and implications of the profound uncertaintythat clouds our view of how the future will unfold

Gavin J Kenney is presently working as an independent climate and agriculture

consultant in New Zealand He was previously with the International Global ChangeInstitute (IGCI), University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand and the EnvironmentalChange Unit, University of Oxford, U.K

Hossain Shahid Mozaddad Faruque is currently the Director General, Water Resources

Planning Organization (WARPO), Ministry of Water Resources, Government of Bangladesh.Trained as a water resources engineer, he has been associated with the planning ofBangladesh’s water sector for over three decades

Ian Burton is an Emeritus Professor, Department of Geography and Planning and Institute

for Environmental Studies (IES), University of Toronto, Canada He is also a Scientist

Emeritus with the Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG), Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada He is currently the President of the International

Society of Biometeorology

Kenneth Strzepek is a Professor in the Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering

Department at the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA His areas of expertise includemodeling of river basins with a focus on the implications of climate change and socio-economic development across the associated watersheds

M Lal is currently with the Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development,

University of South Pacific, Suva, Fiji as a Visiting Professor His research interestsinclude: global and regional climate, modeling the climate and its variability, regionalenvironmental change-integrated approach, vulnerability assessment and regionaladaptation and mitigation potentials He is a Coordinating Lead Author of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, FourthAssessment Report, Working Group II

M Monirul Qader Mirzais currently with the Adaptation and Impacts Research Group(AIRG), Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada He is also an AdjunctProfessor, Institute for Environmental Studies (IES), University of Toronto, Canada Hisresearch mainly focuses on extreme hydro-meteorological events, hydrologic modeling,climate change and associated vulnerability, impact and adaptation

Md Liakath Ali, Senior National Expert, Program Development Office for Integrated Coastal

Zone Management Plan (ICZMP), Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO),Ministry of Water Resources, Government of Bangladesh

Motilal Ghimire is at the Central Department of Geography, Tribuvan University,

Kathmandu, Nepal Areas of his research interest include: socio-economic conditions ofthe mountains, mountain hydrology and water resources, extreme hydrological events andapplication of geographic information system (GIS) in vulnerability assessment

Neil Ericksen is the founding Director of the International Global Change Institute (IGCI),

University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand His research interests are: human response

to natural hazards and climate change, governance and environmental management, andresource planning

Q K Ahmad is the Chairman of the multidisciplinary research organization Bangladesh

Unnayan Parishad (BUP); and President, Bangladesh Economic Association (BEA), Dhaka,Bangladesh He has to his credit a wide range of research works and publications,including on environment and water resources, regional cooperation, climate change, policyplanning, food and agriculture, rural development, poverty alleviation, humandevelopment, technology, employment generation, and gender issues

Richard Warrick is the Deputy Director of the International Global Change Institute

(IGCI), University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand His recent research activities havefocused on climate related issues, particularly global climate and sea level changes and onthe development of integrated models for assessing the effects of climate change andvariability at national and regional scales

xxii A BOUT THE A UTHORS

ADB Asian Development Bank

ADRC Asian Disaster Reduction Center

BCM Billion Cubic Meter

BDCLIM Bangladesh Climate Model

BOD Bio-chemical Oxygen Demand

BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board

CCC Canadian Climate Centre

CCIRG Climate Change Impact Review Group

CCCma Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and AnalysisCDBI Climate Diagnostic Board of India

COLA Center for Ocean Land and Atmosphere

CPCB Central Pollution Control Board

CSE Centre for Science and Environment

CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research OrganizationCWC Central Water Commission

DHM Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

EANHMP East Asia Natural Hazard Management Project

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation

EPADC East Pakistan Agriculture Development CorporationEPWAPDA East Pakistan Water and Power Development AuthorityFANA Federally Administered Northern Areas

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsFAP Flood Action Plan

FCD Flood Control and Drainage

FCDI Flood Control Drainage and Irrigation

FEC French Engineering Consortium

FPCO Flood Plan Coordination Organization

GBM Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna

GCM Global Climate Model

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

GLOF Glacier Lake Outburst Flood

GoB Government of Bangladesh

GoI Government of India

GoP Government of Pakistan

GPP Guidelines for Peoples Participation

GSI Geological Survey of India

HBV Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning

HEC Hydrologic Engineering Center

HYVs High Yielding Varieties

IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

IMD India Meteorological Department

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRMB Institute of Royal Meteorology Belgium

ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

IWMI International Water Management Institute

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

LLNL Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

MAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate ChangeMODSIM Model Simulation

MOE Ministry of Environment

MPO Master Plan Organization

MSL Mean Sea Level

MWR Ministry of Water Resources

NERC National Environment Research Council

NIO National Institute of Oceanography

NWCF Nepal Water Conservation Foundation

NWFP Northwest Frontier Province

NWMP National Water Management Plan

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

PET Potential Evapo-Transpiration

RAJUK Rajdhani Unnayan Katripakha

SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

SCENGEN Scenario Generator

SLR Sea Level Rise

SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios

SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool

TDS Total Dissolved Solids

UBC University of British Columbia

UKMOH United Kingdom Meteorological Office High Resolution ModelUKTR United Kingdom Meteorological Transient Model

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNESCO United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural OrganizationUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNICEF United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund

USEPA United States Environment Protection Agency

WARPO Water Resources Planning Organization

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

WECS Water and Energy Commission Secretariat

WMO World Meteorological Organization

WRDTC Water Resources Development and Training Centre

xxiv A CRONYMS

on the West Coast, are short in length with small catchment areas, most of them beingnon-perennial; and the rivers of the inland drainage basin in Western Rajasthan, which areephemeral, drain towards the silt lakes such as Sambhar, or are lost in the desert sands.Water availability in this region is driven by monsoons, which are cyclical wave-likeair masses that occur in the sub-tropics, moving from the sea to land during the summer

and land to water in winter The word monsoon comes from the Arabic mausim, meaning

‘season,’ because these storms return every year Two monsoon systems operate in theregion: the Southwest or summer monsoon and the Northeast or winter monsoon (Box 1.1and Fig 1.2) The summer monsoon accounts for 70%-90% of the annual rainfall over most

of South Asia, except over Sri Lanka and Maldives where the Northeast monsoon isdominant Apart from the monsoon, the Northern part of South Asia receives considerableprecipitation from Western disturbances, and in the Southern parts (especially Sri Lanka),from weather associated with the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) Considerablemonsoon variability occurs in both space and time There is also a clear association between

El Niño events and weak monsoons During the period 1871-2001, 11 of 22 drought years

were El Niño years (Kumar et al., 2003) Between 1901 and 1990, rainfall was deficient in all

seven strong El Niño cases