[...]... policymakers, educators, entrepreneurs, investors, and innovators—will help us survive two billion cars This page intentionally left blank TWO BILLION CARS This page intentionally left blank Chapter 1 Surviving Two Billion Cars M ore than one billion vehicles populate the earth today The globe is accelerating toward a second billion, with South and East Asia leading the way and Russia, Eastern Europe, and... sustain two billion cars? Not as we now know them.1 Today’s one billion vehicles are already pumping extraordinary quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, draining the world’s conventional petroleum supplies, inciting political skirmishes over oil, and overwhelming the roads of today’s cities Billions of hours are wasted stuck in traffic, and billions of people are sickened by pollution from cars. .. dramatic reduction in transportation CO2 emissions Beyond their huge oil appetites and carbon footprints, cars cause other problems, only some of which have been effectively addressed thus far Local Surviving Two Billion Cars 5 3.0 Cycles & Scooters Trucks & Buses Number of motor vehicles (billions) 2.5 Cars 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 20 90 19 80 19 70 19 60 19 19 50 0.0 FIGURE 1.2 Historical... authorizing the U.S Interstate Highway System in 1956 As cars slowly pushed mass transit to near extinction, a car monoculture emerged In 1950, U.S companies dominated the auto industry, accounting for three-quarters of all cars produced in the world These cars were much larger than those elsewhere in the world Even so, they continued to bulk up as 16 Two Billion Cars the 1950s rolled along, sprouting fins as... transportation monoculture 17 18 Two Billion Cars Further improvements in emissions of conventional pollutants are needed, especially as the number of vehicles continues to swell and older cars remain in use longer, but the challenge now is mostly related to durability of emission controls For cars made in the 1980s and 1990s, it wasn’t unusual for emissions to increase tenfold as the cars aged.6 No longer Emission... accommodate two billion cars on planet Earth Chapter 2 Beyond the Gas-Guzzler Monoculture M otor vehicles are fundamentally unchanged from a century ago Sure, today’s cars are vast improvements over the Model T They’re more reliable, comfortable, efficient, powerful, clean burning, and safe But they still have the same carrying capacity, steering and braking devices, fuel economy, and infrastructure for driving. .. and engineers have responded with continuing improvements in emissions control technology New cars emit nearly zero conventional (local) pollutants But this shining success is neither complete nor uniform While the United States and Japan have led the fight against local air pollution, others 6 Two Billion Cars have lagged, including Europe In part because of Europe’s embrace of diesel engines and more... the transportation monoculture They’re needed not only because they provide the promise of a lower carbon transportation system but also 8 Two Billion Cars because they create more choices for travelers, an essential first step in using carrots and sticks to reduce driving Mass transit as we know it won’t solve energy and climate problems, at least in the affluent nations of the world In the United States,... and other affluent nations must do everything they can to enable China and its developing kin to redouble their entrepreneurial efforts to advance environmentally sound cars, fuels, and transportation systems Chapter 9, Driving toward Sustainability, picks up where GM’s Futurama and Futurama II exhibits at the New York State World’s Fair in 1939 and 1964 left off We posit a Futurama III transport system... beneficial travel behavior Two overarching principles guide our recommendations First, align consistent incentives to empower and motivate people and organizations And second, advance a broad portfolio of energy-efficient, low-carbon technologies To achieve such a vision will require pervasive changes over a long period of time, but this optimistic vision is within our grasp 12 Two Billion Cars Hard Work Ahead .