Some aspects of environmental lease for ecottourism business in cat ba national park, hai phong city,vietnam

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM FORESTRY UNIVERSITY STUDENT THESIS SOME ASPECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE FOR ECOTOURISM BUSINESS IN CAT BA NATIONAL PARK, HAI PHONG

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

VIETNAM FORESTRY UNIVERSITY

STUDENT THESIS

SOME ASPECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE FOR ECOTOURISM BUSINESS IN CAT BA NATIONAL PARK,

HAI PHONG CITY, VIETNAM

Major: Natural Resources Management (Advanced Curriculum) Code: D850101

Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management

Student: Trieu Thi Hong Hanh Student ID:1054030179 Class: K55 Natural Resources Management Course: 2010 – 2014

Advanced Education Program

Developed in Collaboration with Colorado State University, USA

Supervisor: Assoc Prof Dr Pham Van Dien

Hanoi, November 2014

Acknowledgements

Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Associate

Professor Dr Pham Van Dien- Vice Rector of Vietnam Forestry University for the

continuous support of my study, for his patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and immense knowledge His guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis Besides my supervisor, I would thank Cat Ba National Park management board, some local people, businesses and particularly thanks to Mr Nguyen Van Hach who is via director of tourism service and environmental education center, Cat Ba National Park for their encouragement, support, insightful comments, creating convenient conditions to help me complete the study

I must also acknowledge professors of Vietnam Forestry University and Colorado State University, especially Pr Lee MacDonald for taking time out from their busy schedule to provide lectures, advice and guidance for my study

A very special thanks goes out to my family for the support they provided me through my entire life, without whose love and encouragement I would not have finished this thesis

TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FIGURE

TABLE

PART I INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT 1

1.2 OVERVIEW 2

1.2.1 ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE 2

1.2.2 EXISTING METHODS FOR DETERMINING THE PRICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE 3

1.2.3 ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE IN THE PRACTICE 5

1.2.4 GAPS AND SHORTCOMINGS 7

1.3 OBJECTIVES 8

PART II SITE DESCRIPTION 9

2.1 GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND RESOURCE VALUES 9

2.2 GENERAL INFORMATION ABOUT ECOTOURISM ACTIVITIES IN CAT BA NATIONAL PARK 11

2.3 THE ADVANTAGES, POTENTIALS AND LIMITATIONS OF ECOTOURISM DEVELOPMENT 12

PART III METHODS 13

3.1 DATA APPROACH 13

3.2 DATA COLLECTION 13

3.3 DATA ANANYSIS 14

PART IV RESULTS AND DISCUSSTION 17

4.1 CURRENT STATUS OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE LOCATIONS AND

ORIENTATIONS FOR ECOTOURISM ACTIVITIES 17

4.2 COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE LOCATIONS 20

4.3 ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE PRICE UNIT AND AMOUNT OF MONEY 24

4.4 CLASSIFICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE LOCATIONS BY AMOUNT OF MONEY FOR LEASE 29

4.5 IMPLICATIONS 30

PART V CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 31

5.1.CONCLUSIONS 31

5.2.RECOMMENDATIONS 32 REFERENCES

APPENDIX

FIGURES FIGURE 2.1 GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION OF CAT BA NATIONAL PARK 9 FIGURE 4.1 MAP OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE LOCATIONS IN CAT BA NATIONAL PARK 17

TABLES TABLE 1.1: THE FOREST LEASE OBJECTS ACCORDING TO LAW ON FOREST PROTECTION AND DEVELOPMENT 2004 3 TABLE 1.2 METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE PRICE OF FOREST TYPES 4 TABLE 4.1: ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE LOCATIONS AND AREA IN CAT BA NATIONAL PARK 18 TABLE 4.2 COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE LOCATIONS 21 TABLE 4.3: PARAMETERS AND CRITERIA TO ASSESS REGRESSION MODEL BETWEEN G AND INFLUENCING FACTORS 24 TABLE 4.4: ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE PRICE UNIT AND AMOUNT OF MONEY 25 TABLE 4.5: ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE PRICE UNIT AND AMOUNT OF MONEY THAT PROPOSE PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE OF HAI PHONG CITY APPROVES 26 TABLE 4.6: COMPARISON BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF MONEY FOR ALLOCATION AND THE AMOUNT OF MONEY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE IN 10 LOCATIONS 28 TABLE 4.7: 22 LOCATIONS CLUSTERING BY AMOUNT OF MONEY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL LEASE 29

Cat Ba National Park has a rich, attractive and unique ecotourism resource with the harmony of the natural scenes as: forests and sea, mountains and caves, canyon lands and valleys, limestone islands and slough, tides and corals, golden sunlight and sands, Cat Ba langur, Nageia fleuryi populations and lakes in the mountains…Cat Ba National Park is also located in the focal economic triangle area of the North: Hanoi- Hai Phong- Quang Ninh, and it belongs to the Ha Long bay- World Natural Heritage area With these attractions and advantages, ecotourism provides the opportunity of high economic efficiency and becomes a factor that conserves the environment of Cat Ba National Park However, ecotourism activities in Cat Ba National Park are having difficulties and many shortcomings, namely:

- Great potential of developing ecotourism but now the contribution of ecotourism in revenues of Cat Ba National Park is just 1 billion Vnd/year Ecotourism service is poor, simple and does not meet the demands and satisfaction of tourists Surreptitious exploitation of ecotourism resources of local people and businesses to have profits is as well occurring

- Lack of resources to meet the ecotourism demand By decision No UBND on 04/12/2012 of Hai Phong People’s Committees decided about the scheme for ecotourism development in Cat Ba National Park [17]; need for capital source up to 2020

2119/QĐ-is very large (>300 billions Vnd), the state budget 2119/QĐ-is not able to come up for these costs

- No suitable mechanisms or policies in attracting businesses and private companies that invest in environmental lease, such as: undetermined lease size, lease period, severity of the impacts and responsibility to protect, embellish environment and landscape; especially is not determined the price of environmental lease as well as the payment method between the parties This limitation is one of the reasons that makes “socialization” level on forest environmental service payment in Cat Ba National Park slow and less efficient

To contribute to solving the above mentioned shortcomings, the study “Some aspects

of environmental lease for ecotourism business in Cat Ba National Park, Hai Phong city, Vietnam” has been compiled to clearly determine the location, price to lease and some

implications of the study

1.2 Overview

1.2.1 About environmental lease

Around the world, the concept of environmental service payment is understood as follows: "a voluntary transaction for a specific environmental service between at least one party to use environmental service and a party that provides environmental service if and only if the party that supplys environmental service has capable of providing the service (in specific conditions) (Wunder, 2005) [21]

In Vietnam, there are only concepts about forest environmental services payment are used and institutionalized Until now, there is not a legal framework about environmental service payment for all environmental services without forest environmental services In Vietnam, the concept of environmental service payment is explained different from the international under some angles as follows: First, the government plays a major regulatory role: environmental service payment is considered as a instrument based on market, compulsory to apply for a certain number of conditions are put into the provisions of the Government Secondly, poverty reduction is one of the main objectives of policies about environmental service payment

At the Nature Reserve, environmental service payment is offered by Management Board, especially with the support from local communities or individuals The party that use service are businesses with revenues from tourism service and tourists visiting the protected area

1.2.2 Existing methods for determining the price of environmental lease

- Law on Forest Protection and Development (2004) [10] has established two fundamental rights for forest owners to engage in forest lease- for lease relations, namely in Table 1.1:

Table 1.1: The forest lease objects according to Law on Forest Protection and

Development 2004 Forest lease

objects

Kinds of lease forest

Annual payment

Special-use forests are protected landscape areas

Forest protection and development combined landscape business, ecotourism

Annual payment

3.The Vietnamese

settled in abroad,

oversea

Production forests are planted forests

Implementation of investment projects

in forestry under the provisions of the Law on investment, combined forestry -

Pay once for the

entire lease period or Annual payment Production forests

are natural forests

Government regulations

- Decree No.48/2007/NDD-CP of the Government dated on 28/03/2007 [11] about the principles and methods of determining the price of forest types, has launched three methods to determine the price to use forests (protection forests, special use forests, production forests are

natural forests), forest ownership price (production forests are artificial forests):

Table 1.2 Method for determining the price of forest types Method for

determining the price

1 Income

- Pure income

- Interest rates of government bonds

There is enough information to determine the pure income of forest owners from the forest area that required a determining the price

There is enough information to determine the investment costs to

“create” forests for forest area under valuation from invest moment to valuation moment

3 Comparison of the

market Analysis price level

- “ Willingness to pay” method: “ Ecosystem service valuation and Payment mechanisms applied to Cat Ba National Park” report (Dominic Moran and Institute of Forestry Ecology and Environment, 10/2012) [1] and the secondary report “Ecotourism value quantifying in Cat Ba National Park by using Contingent valuation method” (Do Nam Thang & Dinh Duc Truong, 2013) [2] all assessed the value of ecosystem services in Cat Ba National Park by “ Willingness to pay” method The first report assessed value of Cat Ba National Park on the basis of “Willingness to pay” level of tourists “Willingness to pay” level in 2012 was 0.57 million USD (≈11.4 billion Vnd), and up to 2018, this level will increase is 0.76- 1.01 million USD (≈15.2-20.2 billion Vnd) The second report assessed the total of “Willingness to pay” level for environmental lease of local people who live near Cat Ba National Park; and “Willingness to pay” level of them to Cat Ba National Park is 32 billions Vnd/ year Thus, by those reports, actual revenue from ecotourism of Cat Ba National Park today is much less than current potential revenue This

is a method that I can use to determine the price of leasing environment This is useful in cases when price is not known This method tries to determine the price that people are willing to pay for this lease “Willingness to pay” is also the maximum amount that an individual or business is willing to sacrifice to lease environment The price of any transaction will thus be any point between a buyer’s willingness to pay and a seller’s willingness to accept

1.2.3 Environmental lease in the practice

In 2002, Ba Vi National Park piloted in forest environmental lease to develop ecotourism (According to Document No.1248/CP-NN dated on 10/09/2002 of the Government on approving the project "Piloting in using of special-use forest environment for service business and vocational guidance education in Ba Vi National Park " [12]; Decision No 5561/QD-BNN-KL on 09/12/2002 of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development approving scheme about Piloting in using of special-use forest environment

for ecotorism development and vocational guidance education in Ba Vi National Park” [15]) The summary model in Ba Vi showed that the forest areas that are leased by businesses for ecotourism are well protected The area which affect forests to build tourism infrastructure accounted for a small proportion compared with the lease area.Some poor forest areas that have been cleared previously are restored, landscapes at some lease locations are embellished in order to attract tourists; businesses that use forest environmental lease for ecotourism planted 51.6 hectares of new forest, nurtured and grew additional 119.7 hectares Durin g the period of 2004 - 2009, these businesses invested 250 billion VND; contributed to the State budget taxes, charges are 17 billion VND According to the People's Committee of

Ba Vi district, only 6 forest environmental lease units attracted and created stable jobs for 1,576 local people Many traditional handicraftmanships are restored, developed; maintained, promotion of indigenous culture and progressive manufacturing experiences are also shared through the exchange activities The investment of districts and province in infrastructure and services business activities of ecotourism zones created the basic conditions for changing the socio-economic aspects of rural mountain area The proportion of poor households in Ba Vi district decreased from 25.3% in 2003 to only 9.7% in 2007, so that local people do not have to suffer hunger Our study shows that almost all of the forest environmental lease zones for eco-tourism are the central areas which have beautiful natural scenery with historical monuments Type of ecotourism in here is the sightseeing services The price of forest environmental lease

is different in each area, in the centers they are higher than in the outlying areas So the pilot model of forest environmental lease for ecotourism in Ba Vi National Park is a good model that should be replicated

Many provinces have piloted forest environmental lease models for ecotourism development as Thanh Hoa, Lam Dong, An Giang, Ba Vi – Ha noi Quang Ninh Province identified the unit price for land lease and price for water surface lease on the basis of Decree No.142/2005/ND-CP of the Government dated on 14/11/2005 [13] and

Circular 120/2005/TT-BTC on 30/12/2005 of the Ministry of Finance [16] guiding the implementation of Decree 142/2005/ND-CP on 14/11/2005 of the Government; Can Tho city applied the ratio to calculate the unit price for water surface lease to build jetties, anchoring wharves is 1% of non-agricultural land price

Ecotourism in Cat Ba National Park has been assigned to the Travel Service and Environmental Education Center for direct management since 2009 The center plays a key role in collecting visitor fees and guiding tourists The principal activities of ecotourism in Cat Ba National Park are: a) Organize sightseeing tours of natural landscape, biodiversity ; b) The operation of hotels, restaurants and entertainment venues

Based on the pilot model, Cat Ba National Park initially piloted for allowing businesses and other entities that play an important role in supplying the ecotourism needs

of tourists through forest environmental lease form from the past few years There are 10 places that have been allocated to the private and businesses with a total revenue of 280 millionVnd (2013) This money also helps for the park management, protection of forest, and regulation of human resource to other areas If we continue to attract private and businesses to lease environment for ecotourism, we will contribute to a better implementation of conservation goals associated with development and connection in resource management

Ecotourism development scheme in Cat Ba National Park was approved by the Hai Phong city People's Committee, which provided clearly locations, types and organizations for management of ecotourism activities, especially environmental lease locations

1.2.4 Gaps and shortcomings

Until now, the environmental lease for ecotourism development in Cat Ba National Park has not been carried out strictly in all years Activities are just “allocated locations” for private or businesses under the condition that people who are allocated must pay the annual costs In 2013, there are 10 locations that were allocated with a total area of 148 ha

(in that water surface area accounts for over 60%), the total collected amount is 280 million Vnd However, this allocation is also considered the first successful step in environmental lease in the local area

Nevertheless, allocated activities for ecotourism development in Cat Ba National Park also have many disadvantages:

 The allocated price is only based on the agreement between the two parties, has not been calculated in detail and in general, it does not approach the market price

 The time limit for allotment is unclear, not high legality, so the investment of businesses is very limited That affects not only attraction to tourists but also service quality

 Lack of evaluation and supervision about the forest resources management and biodiversity protection in allocated activities

These problems posed requirements about transforming activities from "location allotment " to " environmental lease" for ecotourism development completely with a full range of scientific bases and in accordance with the practice here

1.3 Objectives

In order to contribute to solve these shortcomings, this study will investigate some

of these aspects of environmental lease for ecotourism business in Cat Ba National Park, Hai Phong city, Vietnam The specific objectives are:

 To determine the location, price of environmental lease for ecotourism business

at 22 places in Cat Ba National Park

 To predict the price of environmental lease for any place in the study area based

on results from determining the price of environmental lease for ecotourism business at 22 places in Cat Ba National Park

 To find out some implications of the study

 Contribute to provide some data and information relating to environmental lease

 Creat opportunity to Cat Ba National Park links with local businesses

Part II Site description 2.1 Geographic location and resource values

Cat Ba National Park, Hai Phong City, was established by Decision No.79/CT March

31, 1986 of the President of the Council of Ministers (now Prime Minister) The park was officially approved by Technical and Economic Justification dated on 01/08/1991 by Decision No 237/CT of the Council of Ministers

Figure 2.1 Geographic location of Cat Ba National Park

Cat Ba National Park is at 20°44' - 20°52' North latitude and 106°59'- 107°06' East longitude, about 150 km southeast from Hanoi Cat Ba is the gateway of Hai Phong city and a center of biodiversity, geology, natural scenery, tourist of the city

The land area of Cat Ba National Park is 16,196.8 ha, with island area of 10,931.7 ha and the sea area of 5,265.1 ha The park is divided into three functional zones: Strict

protection zone: 4,914.6 ha; Ecological restoration zone: 11,094 ha; Administration and service zone: 93.1 ha

* About landscape, environment, conservation and ecotourism values

The sea is one of the most important tourism potential of Cat Ba Beaches system (about 20 beaches can exploit) is not large but nice, clear blue sea, white sands have attracted many tourists to travel and sea bath in the hot summer Besides, the potential of interesting tourism kinds as scuba diving, watching corals and marine life through the clear waters, kayark rowing, fishing, In addition, the sea plays an important role in connecting Cat Ba with Ha Long Bay that creates ability to lasting travel tours and product diversification

Unique limestone islands system: Cat Ba archipelago, outside the main island there are 366 small islands with their own shapes that create a very attractive, unique landscape

as a miniature of Ha Long bay Typical as Lan Ha Bay, Viet Hai Gulf, Van Boi, etc Many islands have strange shapes, coral shelves, and on the islands there are salty lakes- there is

an unexplored potential

Interesting caves system: According to geologists, Cat Ba archipelago was formed by tectonic movement of the earth's crust and sea level raised and lowered millions of years ago It has karst terrain (limestone), with lots of interesting caves as the Qua Vang, Thien Long, Trung Trang, Vem,Tien Duc and beautiful beaches as Cat Co, Cat Dua, Ba Trai Dao, Van Boi, etc Many places are primitive that are covered by green trees in a charming scenery with sea and mountains as Vem cave, Tien Duc cave, etc Now, there are over 10 caves assigned to the use for tourism

Stream and lake systems: Cat Ba National Park has a famous stream system known as: Thuong Luong (Tran Chau commune), Trung Trang, Treo Com ( Dong Co area) There are natural lakes in limestones (frog pond), an area of over 3.6 hectares, with water all year reaching a water level of around 30 cm, located among primary forest area

About cultural tourism potential, Cat Ba is the area of the oldest settlement of residents Over time, the interaction between nature and man have created the unique cultural characteristics related to human life here There are many cultural, history and archeology monuments in the park and in Cat Ba Island as Cai Beo relic, Hien Hao temple, Quan Y cave, Uy Ban cave, Huyen Uy cave.Traditional culture life and festivals bring many unique identities, characterized by fishermens with aquaculture and fishing along with interesting games, unique rituals to hope Long Hai Dai Vuong- god of the sea will bless for a seafood bumper year Every year, local people hold dragon boat race on the sea

2.2 General information about ecotourism activities in Cat Ba National Park

Cat Ba National Park is the full convergence of strict criteria of ecotourism The stunning beauty and pristine ecosystems, the majestic beauty of the natural landscape, the richness and diversity of biodiversity resources has brought fame to Cat Ba National Park However, at the moment ecotourism activities of Cat Ba National Park are limited to organization of some sightseeing tours

Tourism activities began to develop in Cat Ba Island in the 1990s Cat Ba is a destination with a constantly increasing number of international and domestic tourists According to source of Cat Ba National Park (2013), the number of tourists increased from 45,182 visitors in 2003 to 144,194 visitors in 2013 ( increased by 3.2 times) This also shows that the sea tourism routes attract more tourists to visit than the forest routes ( by 2.25 times) Therefore, it is necessary to consider this factor in determining the price unit

of environmental lease for ecotourism business at each specific location.(*)

An important detail is that revenues from ecotourism activities are low, they only reached 1.946 billionVnd in 2013 (accounted for 4.8% of the revenues of the park) In particular, revenues from allocating locations for ecotourism were just 280 millionVnd in

2013, equivalent to 14.3% compared with revenues from ecotourism (**)

Results of the survey (in 2014) show that an increase of the number of visitors to Cat

Ba island is quite high, the average is 30% / year However, there are two problems in this process: (i) The increase is mainly due to the chain effect of Ha Long Bay tourism system ; (ii) The growth rate is not stable between years This indicates that the environmental lease for ecotourism development is necessary and contributes to attract tourists on the basis of natural resources conservation, while improving the contribution of service business activities to develop ecotourism

2.3 The advantages, potentials and limitations of ecotourism development

- The advantages, potentials: Cat Ba archipelago is a masterpiece of nature at the beginning of the country It has unique natural landscape, special forest- marine ecosystems, typical biodiversity resources Cat Ba has population density and poverty rate are relatively low Economic- social and cultural environment in the islands is stable, which creates many advantages and a great potential for ecotourism development

- The limitations: Services related to ecotourism in Cat Ba have not yet been developed and do not contribute significantly to meet the needs of the visitors Poor infrastructure also significantly affects the quality of ecotourism activities The organization of ecotourism is not synchronized and low professionalism is a major limiting factor to ecotourism development in Cat Ba National Park One of the causes for this situation in terms of limitation of state investment sources is the fuzzy level of socialization of ecotourism, resources of businesses, private and other economic sectors

have not been mobilized to develop ecotourism

Part III Methods

3.1 Data approach

Environmental lease area includes land area and sea surface area Investors are required to carry out construction engineering works under the provisions of the State; as well they will be responsible for resources protection, and fire prevention and fighting all over the assigned area

Based on natural and socio-economic conditions, the importance of each location and the extent of impacts, targets shall be set up in order to determine indexes to identify the price for each area by using fuzzy math, such as “fuzzy regression” Detail in the following section

3.2 Data collection

Due to different characteristics, advantages and limitations of the lease places, the exploitation of the places will be at different impact levels, environmental lease price has

to be calculated for each place

In order to determine the environmental lease price assigned to each place, my thesis clearly describes the purposes and development orientations for each place I will investigate 22 places in Cat Ba National Park In each place, I have 10 outforms for 10 people (including some Cat Ba National Park staffs, local peple and businesses) that I investigated 7 parameters, of which 6 parameters – namely Land area of each location (size of the lease area); Attraction level to tourists; Service diversification level; Convenience level, conditions for reducing transport costs; Connection level with other tourism places and Level of investment attraction for businesses and private – reflect the characteristics, potential, and advantages of the lease area and 1 parameter reflects the

“willingness to pay” level for environmental lease to develop ecotourism The 7th

factor is classified as subjective factor being related to the purpose of socialization, management

conditions and environmental lease priorities of Cat Ba National Park in the conservation

of forest resources and biodiversity This factor is evaluated in three levels (level 1 - low priority, level 2 - medium priority, level 3 - high priority) Thus, there are 7 factors that control the environment lease price Besides, 8th factor is the price unit or environmental lease price, which synthesizes and reflects competitive advantages of each environmental lease place

3.3 Data ananysis

By taking the total amount of “willingness to pay “(Vnd/lease location/year) and subtracting the total amount of sea surface lease (is assigned and less volatile by location), and then dividing it by the total land area, we will determine the price unit to lease land at each place (total of 22 locations)

Among the 22 locations in the area that are planned for environmental lease, there are 10 places that are “allocated” with the deal price between Cat Ba National Park and businesses According to previously explained calculations, we will determine the "allocated ” price unit for land in each specific location

Using the method of fuzzy regression analysis between “willingness to pay” price unit and the 6 factors, which will test the suitability and reliability of the data, the price unit and environmental lease price can be determined in any places

- Model 1 : includes 10 pairs of data (corresponding to the number of allocated places) Through this model, the relationship of the allocated price unit can be determined (G1 ) with 6 main influential factors

- Model 2: includes 22 pairs of data (corresponding to the number of places in environmental lease plan) Through this model, the relationship of “willingness to pay” price unit (G2) can be calculated with 6 main influential factors

Fuzzy regression model is written as follows (Tanaka et al , 1982 ; Chang et al , 2001) [5] :

̂ ̅ ̅ ̅ ̅ (3.1)

In which, Y is the dependent variable (the cost to lease for a year),

= <aic, aiw> are the fuzzy coefficients, Xi is the explanatory variable (6 parameters) Xi and Yi are real data or fuzzy data In this thesis, all input and output data

are fuzzy data, the structure of regression model is also fuzzy Each coefficient is represented by a fuzzy membership function that is triangle, formed as f = (α, β, ϒ) In

which, α (Є ) is the center (or mode), β and ϒ (Є ) respectively are spread on the

left or right The fuzzy membership function that is triangle is represented as (Kao C et

al (2003); Cengiz Kahraman et al(2006) [5]:

The accuracy of the fuzzy regression model was assessed by three criterias: (i) Euclidean distance (D), (ii) the relative difference of fuzzy range (RDS,%), (iii) the relative difference between 2 centers of the theory fuzzy and empirical fuzzy (RDα,%) The smaller D, RDS and RDα are , the more likely is the fuzzy regression model (Van Dien Pham et al, 2013) [3], the

“willingness to pay” price to lease environment will be more asymptotic with realistic prices Based on the results of the fuzzy regression model G1 and G2 are identified G2 is the basic for determining the environmental lease price unit (weight is 2), G1 is used for

the adjustment of the lease level in case of G2 > G1 (weight of G1 is 1) The adjusted price (G3) is identified as:

G3 = (G1 + 2G2)/ 3 (3.3) Therefore, the official price for environmental lease depends on the 7th factor (discount factor) and will be adjusted Since G3 is a fuzzy number, the official price unit will be:

+ Places for leasing environment in 1st priority: take the upper value of G3

+ Places for leasing environment in 2nd priority: take the middle value of the G3 + Places for leasing environment in 3rd priority: take the lower value of G3

Based on the volatility of the price unit for leasing environment, I will classify places according to the leasing money into 4 groups (ranked from high to low) (Table 4.7)

* The environmental lease duration

- Forest Environment: Maximum of 50 years Where the lease duration ends, if investors want to extend lease duration, they will have to report Hai Phong city People's Committee to consider and decide

- Sea surface: Maximum of 5 years Where the lease duration ends, if investors want

to extend lease duration, they will have to report Hai Phong city People's Committee to consider and decide