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Analyzing the key drivers of tree planting from local people in cao phong district, hoa binh province, vietnam with bayesian networks

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Tiêu đề Analyzing the key drivers of tree planting from local people in Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province, Vietnam with Bayesian Networks
Tác giả Tran Thi Mai Anh
Người hướng dẫn Dr. Le Dinh Hai
Trường học Vietnam Forestry University
Chuyên ngành Natural Resources Management
Thể loại Thesis
Năm xuất bản 2015
Thành phố Ha Noi
Định dạng
Số trang 84
Dung lượng 1,09 MB

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Cấu trúc

  • Chapter 1 Introduction (9)
  • Chapter 2 Study Goals and Objectives (12)
    • 2.1. Study goal and objectives (12)
    • 2.2. Research questions (12)
  • Chapter 3 Study Area and Research Methodology (13)
    • 3.1. Selection of research site (13)
      • 3.1.1. Hoa Binh Province (13)
      • 3.1.2. Cao Phong district (14)
    • 3.2. Research methodology (17)
      • 3.2.1. Framework of factors influencing tree planting development of smallholder (17)
      • 3.2.2. Data collection (24)
      • 3.2.3. Data analysis methods (27)
      • 3.2.4. Bayesian networks (30)
  • Chapter 4 Results (35)
    • 4.1. Descriptive statistic on surveyed households in Cao Phong district (35)
      • 4.1.1. Land area (35)
      • 4.1.2. Education (36)
      • 4.1.3. Distance to market (36)
      • 4.1.4. Knowledge on silviculture (37)
    • 4.2. Key drivers affecting tree planting decision of surveyed households (38)
    • 4.3. Key drivers affecting forest area will be planted of surveyed households (40)
    • 4.4. Relationships among independent variables (41)
    • 4.5. Bayesian networks (BNs) (44)
      • 4.5.1. Bayesian Network of tree planting decision model (44)
      • 4.5.2. Bayesian network of forest area will be planted (46)
  • Chapter 5 Discussion (51)
    • 5.1. The difference of perspectives of households about planting trees (51)
    • 5.2. Potential actions which may increase planting forest in Cao Phong district (56)
      • 5.2.1 Suggestion based on attitude of tree planting (56)
      • 5.2.2 Suggestion based on investment capital for tree planting (57)
      • 5.2.3 Suggestion based on knowledge on silviculture of local people (58)
      • 5.2.4 Suggestion based on distance to market (59)
      • 5.2.5 Suggestion based on total land area of each household (61)
      • 5.2.6. Suggestion based on participation forest program (62)
    • 5.3. Limitations and suggestions for future research (63)
  • Chapter 6 Conclusion (65)
  • Chapter 7 References (68)
  • Chapter 8 Appendices (73)

Nội dung

Introduction

Tree planting is the process of transplanting tree seedlings, generally for forestry, land reclamation, or landscaping purposes In silviculture the activity is known as reforestation and afforestation, depending on whether the area being planted has or has not recently been forested (Ngugi Tirus Kamau 2003) Afforestation and reforestation both refer to establishment of trees on non-tree land Reforestation refers to establishment of forest on land that had recent tree cover, whereas afforestation refers to land that has been without forest for much longer (IPCC 1998) Tree planting not only can be used as a geoengineering technique to remove CO2 from the atmosphere but also can be used as solution for economic forest development in comprehensive and sustainable way

Hoa Binh is a mountainous province of Vietnam covering an area of 460,870 ha Of those forest land area occupies 332,800 ha holding 72% of total area; the number of labors working in agroforestry is 391,500 people taking roughly 71% of all labors in the province (Nhan Sinh 2015) However, since 2009, 25.7% of hill land in Hoa Binh province has not been covered by forests yet (Đăng Ngọc Oanh 2009) These forests protect Da electric power plant, regulate stream flow, maintain water quality, minimize erosion, conserve ecosystems, and provide other benefits via their protection Therefore, planting forest in Hoa Binh were determined as the most importance of environmental protection and a necessary insurance of short term and long term earning for the rural communities

Besides that, deforestation had become a problem in Hoa Binh Province In the last decade, due to cutting forest and unplanned cultivating of the ethnic communities, the forest cover of the province dropped to an alarming rate with 27% (GIZ project, 2000) Plus with forest fire forecast is on the level 5/5 which is above average activity, the forests were decreased from 23,103 ha to 23,042 ha during 2004 – 2011 period (Phạm Quang Tùng 2013)

In 28-September 2005, People‟s committee of Hoa Binh Province was given an official

2 document number 1314/UB-NLB to eliminate forest destruction inside the area, yet deforestation is still an insolvable problem

Throughout 20 years, a lot of projects from government and international organizations were established such as Decree 327, Decree 661(1998), Project 747 (472), and Project RENFODA (cooperate with JICA technologies), to fulfil the objectives of raising the forest cover on national level to an average of 43% (Thủ tướng chính phủ 1998) Up to now, Hoa Binh has implemented 15 plans with the budget by 2005 is 40.1 billion VND and in 2008 is 27.4 billion VND Particularly, on 20 April 2008, a project of Afforestation and reforestation clean development mechanism (AR-CDM) has firstly implemented in Cao Phong district, Hoa Binh Province This is a project formulated with the assistance of JICA study on Capacity Development for AR-CDM Promotion in Vietnam with a total of 3.5 billion VND to be donated to Forest Development Fund which established in April 2008 according to Decree No.148/2007/ND-CP by Honda Vietnam Company The period for the project is 16 years covering by 308.5 ha located in Xuan Phong and Bac Phong communes, Cao Phong district and be voluntary participated by 320 households of the land using certificate of the project area would conduct planting, tending, protecting and managing of the plantations (Tạ Văn Chính 2007) Planting forest has provided job, contributed the income, eliminated hunger and reduced poverty for thousands of local people, especially the ethnic minorities

At the Hoa Binh hydropower plant watershed, the forests transferred for local people were 81,850 ha, occupied 94% of total 86,980 ha of forest land in protection forests in 2009 (Hoang Lien Son 2009) which were considered as one of 13 focal points of headwater forests in Vietnam (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 2006) Moreover, at the moment, for the market output of plantation forests and economic forests, there are 33 business manufacturing, wood and forest product factories at small and medium scales inside the

3 province are recently operative This is a good condition for local people to connect between tree planting and harvesting, processing timber products Therefore it might promotes socio- economic of households to plant trees

Meanwhile Hoa Binh province is a cradle of Muong ethnic people as well as home of so many minority communities, most of them live based on natural resources Thus, household characteristics understanding may be the main factor that influences tree planting Accordingly, it leads to the questions that what are the differences in the socio-economic and perceptional characteristics of tree planter and non-tree planters What are farmers‟ motivations for planting or not planting trees, and what are the main disadvantages related to tree planting?

For those reasons, I come up with a goal of analyzing the key drivers of tree planting from local people in Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province, Vietnam with Bayesian Network to be my study in order to have a better understanding of community members „motivation for reforestation and afforestation

Study Goals and Objectives

Study goal and objectives

 Goal: Analyzing key drivers of tree planting from local people with Bayesian Network in order to provide suggestion in increasing planting forest in Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province

 The main objectives of this study are:

(1) To determine the household factors associated with household decision of local people to plant trees and explain them

(2) To provide potential suggestion which may increase planting forest in Cao Phong district, Hoa Binh province, Vietnam.

Research questions

(1) What are key drivers affecting tree planting decision of households?

(2) What are key drivers affecting area will be planted by households?

(3) What are farmers‟ motivations for planting or not planting trees?

(4) What are the main disadvantages related to tree planting?

Study Area and Research Methodology

Selection of research site

The area of Hoa Binh province is the source of headwater and major tributaries that influence the lives of more than 808,200 people (GSO, 2013) inside the province Located in the North of Vietnam It borders Son La and Phu Tho provinces to the northwest, Ha Noi city to the north and northeast, Ha Nam province to the southeast, Ninh Binh and Thanh Hoa provinces to the south Hoa Binh is a mountainous province located on the entrance of the Northwest region and is proud to be famous with “Hoabinhian Culture” where human life is proven to existed here since 10,000 – 2,000 BCE The topography is combined by mountains and narrow valleys results in the climate of this district is representative for tropical monsoon, which is pretty cold and less rain in winter but hot and rainy in summer The annual temperature varies between 15 to 29 Degrees Celsius, depending on season Hoa Binh is in the region has a high poverty rate and a low standard of living of the population The growth of GDP amounts to 11.8% during 2000-2010 The poverty rate was 31.31% in 2005, and was 14% in 2010, but in 2011 the rate of poverty has jumped again to 37.68%, according to the new rate of poverty (Mai Lan Phuong 2011) They are a large variety of ethnic groups, which has 15 ethnic communities, and 63.4% is Muong ethnic group The variety of both culture and environment leads to diverse land-use systems

Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province was chose to be a case study because of the following reasons Firstly, Cao Phong is located at the center of Hoa Binh province which is representative for mountainous area, bounded with streams, rivers, valleys, and limestone mountains Secondly, this area also is a focal point of planting protection forest for headwater which plays an important role for protecting water resource of whole province There are 3 ethnic communities living together (Kinh, Dzao, Muong), mainly practice agriculture, largely

6 on sloping areas Deforestation and change in land use are critical challenges for protecting and managing forest in Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province

Source:http://investinvietnam.vn/data/image/HoaBinh.jpg

Figure 3.1.The map of Hoa Binh province

3.1.2 Cao Phong district a) Geographic location

Cao Phong is a rural area in Hoa Binh Province bordered Kim Boi district to the east, Hoa Binh city to the north, Da Bac district to the northwest, Tan Lac district to the west, and Lac Son district to the southeast The district extends along with the Number 6 Highway from Hanoi to the provinces of Hoa Binh, Son La, Lai Chau with the total area of 25,460 ha

Bac Phong Commune is located in the north of Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province, on the inter-commune road running from Tay Phong Commune, Cao Phong town to Hoa Binh city and Binh Thanh Commune It has a total land area of 2,329 ha, including 1,613 ha of forest land, with the area of natural forest is 72 ha and plantation forest is 359 ha (Communal People Committee of Bac Phong in 2015)

Xuan Phong Commune is bordered with Kim Boi district along from the north east to the south east, the west side bordered with Thu Phong, Dong Phong, Tan Phong, Yen Lap from the northwest to the south west, respectively Total land area is 3,111 ha including 816 ha of forest land, with the area of protection forest is 428 ha, and 388 ha of plantation forest (Communal People Committee of Xuan Phong in 2015)

(Source: http://lib.hunre.edu.vn/Xem-Ban-do-tinh-Hoa-Binh 6157-4998 )

Figure 3.2 Map of communes in Cao Phong district _Scale= 1:500,000 b) Natural conditions

Cao Phong is divided into 3 main sub areas, they are highland, middle land, and river banks The average elevation of whole region is about 400m with slope ranges from 10 o to

25 o Due to the tropical monsoon climate type, hot and rainy more in the summer, cold and dry in the winter The annual temperature is between 22 o C to 24 o C (1975-2004) with precipitation of 1,800 mm to 2,200 mm (Nguyen Ha Linh 2013) In general, the climate of Cao Phong district is often colder and having more rain in compare with the other districts of Hoa Binh Province c) Soil and land use

Due to the topography is quite complex and various, Cao Phong has different types of soil On the hill and mountain area, yellow ferarit soil type and limestone are the most

8 popular Downhill and lowland has alluvial soil Therefore, soil in lowland of Cao Phong district has high fertility and be able to plant diverse of tree species

Nevertheless, according to land use state of Cao Phong district 2015, agriculture land just hold 14% while non-use land in forest land accounted very high percentage is 40% As the survey from CDM reforestation program in 2008, the organic layer in the hill slope of both Bac Phong and Xuan Phong Commune was accessed as poor and thin, the main reason was soil was degraded very seriously due to long time deforestation This problem is also recorded during my surveyed interview through the answers of respondents and low development of tree species in the area

Nowadays, many households in Cao Phong district are changing their land use from agriculture land (rice cultivate, sugar cane, maize crops) into fruit trees land (orange, lemon, pomelon) with the purpose of increasing their income As noted by a village leader, around 70% of household in Mon Village, Bac Phong Commune is selling and clear cutting protection forests, plantation forests to plant fruit trees It leads to so many problems occurring in the region such as lack of water in the head stream which used to crop cultivating, polluted water in the upstream and soil degradation are more and more frequent

Photo 3.1 Land use change from timber tree to fruit tree farm

According to Communal People of Bac Phong and Xuan Phong Communes by 2015, the total of population in Bac Phong is 1,095 households comprising 4,167 inhabitants, with the natural growth rate is 1.2% Xuan Phong is considered sparsely populated with 785 households comprising 3,485 inhabitants, with the natural growth rate is 1% which slightly decreased (0.2%) from 2006 to 2015 Muong ethic is accounted for 99% of communities in whole district

Table 3.1 General Information on Bac Phong and Xuan Phong Commune (2015)

Parameter Bac Phong Commune Xuan Phong Commune

Source: Communal People Committee of Bac Phong and Xuan Phong (2015)

The percentage of people in labor age (from 15 to 59 years old) in Bac Phong Commune is 60% and 58% in Xuan Phong Commune Average GDP of people in Cao Phong district is estimated around 8.5 million VND/person/year (2015) Nearly all inhabitants in Cao Phong are working in agroforestry Hence their income are depended on tree planting This also is one of the reason for me to choose Cao Phong to do my study

Research methodology

3.2.1 Framework of factors influencing tree planting development of smallholder

A wide range of factors that influences smallholder tree planting development are identified in the literature review These factors are grouped into those that relate to characteristics specific to household and farming factors, socio-economic aspects, institutional policy aspects and biophysical characteristics that are discussed below

Figure 3.3 Factors influence tree planting decision of smallholder

Socio-demographic variables such as the age, gender, and educational level of framers might influence whether they engage in tree planting activities (Mercer and Pattanayak 2003) Older farmers are often viewed as less flexible, more risk averse and less willing to engage in a new, innovative activity Thatcher et al (1996) and Zhang and Flick (2001) report that age has no influence on planting while Romm et al (1987) state that older age reduces the probability of Silvicultural investment Education has been reported to influence significantly tree planting and conservation by famers because it is a medium of learning about a resource (Thacher, Lee et al 1996, Glendinning, Mahapatra et al 2001, Owubah, Le Master et al

2001) Nsiah and Pretzsch (2005) indicate that where household with forest plantation had higher education and also showed positive attitude towards forest plantation development than household without forest plantation However, educational level of household head was found not to impact tree planting in studies in Sumatra and the Philippines (Otsuka, Suyanto et al

2000, Mercer and Pattanayak 2003) Access to information and forestry technical assistance

11 improves the quality of household labor, and their willingness to engage in forestry activities including tree planting (Amacher, Hyde et al 1993)

Reasons for planting and managing trees on land also influence smallholder tree planting These reasons include the provision of a legacy for children and grandchildren; timber production for sales; provision of construction materials; increase of farm income; and other environmental improvement However, according to Sevare et al (2007), the main purpose of famers for tree planting in Leyte Island, the Philippines is to provide a legacy for their children and grandchildren as a source for their income in the future, to provide for their own use and in order for them to perceive the forest and appreciate nature

Important farm characteristics/resource endowments include level of intensification, size of landholding and land availability, total household income, livestock, accessing to existing forest resources, and distance to market The level of diversification of the production system is an important factors influencing farm tree management decisions (Mahapatra and Mitchell 2001)

The asset holdings or resource endowments (e.g land, labor, and wealth) that a farming household possesses are a measure of resources available to the household for implementing a new agroforestry practice such as tree planting Household wealth has a positive influence on agroforestry adoption and conservation investments (Glendinning, Mahapatra et al 2001, Pattanayak, Evan Mercer et al 2003) Nsiah and Pretzsch (2005) also note that household income has significant influence on smallholder forest plantation development Larger farm size often play a role in farming household‟s participation in tree programs (Thacher, Lee et al 1996, Salam, Noguchi et al 2000) However, Nsiah and Pretzsch (2005) and Otsuka et al.(2000) report that size of household land did not influence tree planting

Resource constraints influence landholder investment in tree planting Harrison et al.(2000) show that the small-scale landholder often lacks the inputs such as land, capital, planting material and silvicultural knowledge to grow trees Lack of finance can lead to failure to apply fertilizer or to adopt other recommended practices Peak labor requirements may clash with labor demands for other crops Extension services may be limited, and species recommended are not always the most suitable for the area

Scarcity of wood supply from existing resources is cited as an important factor influencing tree management and wood production by small-scale landholders Gilmour‟s

(1995) models on the likely responses of Nepalese farmers to tree planting and protection indicate that the farmers‟ interest in devoting land and labor for growing tree declines with proximity to available existing tree and forest resources Where wood supply from nearby forest resources is scarce, high collection time and purchasing cost of fuel wood are expected to have a positive influence on farmers‟ tree planting development

Biophysical characteristics, especially soil quality and slop of farmland are related to the production process of food crop and tree farming In general, poorer biophysical production conditions (plots with poor soil fertility for food crop production or highly exposed to erosion) are likely to be positively related to tree planting (Pattanayak, Evan Mercer et al 2003) Tree growing is further positively related to fine-textured clayey soils and negatively related to coarse-textured soils (Schuren and Snelder 2008) However, there is threshold quality below which any productive investment may not be useful

In addition, the distance between a field and farmer‟s house is negatively related to tree growing Trees are preferably grown close to the house where farmers can more easily inspect them and prevent damage or losses by fire, astray animal and theft (Schuren and Snelder 2008)

Moreover, climate also influences tree planting For example, the increasing political interest in climate change and the ability of forests to sequester carbon is expected to encourage more state led efforts to expand plantations, while also providing supplemental income for the rural poor via payments for carbon sequestration (Maarit Helena KALLIO

2013) In this study, local people in Cao Phong district are supported by reforestation project was registered as small-scale project under the Afforestation/Reforestation Clean Development Mechanism within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), part of the Kyoto Protocol and the 661 national reforestation project

In addition to other factors, socio-economic factors also strongly influence smallholder land use decisions Households determine their land use portfolios based upon potential net benefits given their environmental and economic resource endowments, and taking into consideration the time frame in which outputs will be profitable These factors, including opportunity cost of the various factors of production, access to markets for inputs and outputs, transaction costs associated with institutions, risk and access to credit, and the discount rates of economic decision making units, need to be taken into account to identify locations economically as well as ecologically suited to tree growing Table 3.5 outline the socio- economic parameters we employ in our ex ante cost benefit estimates and summarizes how each of the various factors may influence economic returns to tree planting

Table 3.2 Cost-benefit parameters and possible influencing cost benefit estimates Cost-benefit criteria

Conditions for positive economic returns

Conditions for negative economic returns

Land Land abundant (low population densities)

Land scarce (high population densities)

Low potential land, hillsides or wasteland that have low or zero opportunity cost

High potential land with high opportunity cost

Few negative environmental Significant negative environmental

14 externalities and/or positive externalities externalities

Labour Low or medium wage rates (may be associated with high population density distant from off-farm labour markets)

High wage rates (may be associated with low population density relatively close to off-farm labour markets)

High wage rates may also favour tree planting when compared with other labour intensive activities

Low cost material inputs related to good access to input markets

High cost of material inputs related to remoteness from input markets Presence of NGOs and other organisations that offer inputs for free or at subsidised prices

Absence of NGOs and other subsidising agencies

Output prices Good output market access (may be partially related to proximity to major road, town and high population density

Poor market access (characteristics of poor access to roads and towns)

Markets with sufficiently elastic demand

Inefficient markets and/or inelastic demand

Low discount rates High discount rate

Good access to credit markets Poor access to credit markets High potential lands yield high MAI providing returns in shorter time horizon

Low potential yields yield low MAI providing returns in medium to long run Institutional factors

Access to benefits not restricted Restricted access to benefits

Institutional and policy factors include land and tree tenure security, the organization of overall rural development and forestry system, extension services, and information sources

Land and tree property rights security

Tenure insecurity is defined here as the perceived probability of losing ownership of a part or the whole one‟s land without his or her consent (Sjaastad and Bromley 1997) Land

15 ownership in agrarian societies is not only the main means of generating a livelihood, but it is often also the primary means for accumulating wealth and transferring it to future generations Right of access and use to the products that are produced from woodlots is an institutional factors that may influence long-term investments such as tree planting If smallholders perceive that they may not be given approval to harvest products from woodlots that they have invested in, they are less likely to get involved in community tree planting because of the uncertainty of when or if they will benefit from their investment In addition, smallholders who have weak property right (e.g insecure land tenure) may not undertake a socially efficient level of production (Harrison 2005) If land and tree tenure are uncertain, this will discourage the investment in tree planting

For many smallholders and communities in developing countries the question of tenure security is major constraint to tree planting and management (Herbohn, Emtage et al

2005) Lack of secured land and tree tenure have been documented as a significant constraint to tree cultivation as it impacts the potential benefit accrued to famers (Zhang and Pearse

1997, Place and Otsuka 2000) Basically, other things being equal, farmers who hold a secured title to land are more likely to participate in tree planting activities than those who do not The forms of tenure that have longer terms, are more clearly defined, provide more of the economic benefits to their holders, are likely to stimulate planting (Zhang and Pearse 1997) The duration of tenure determines whether farmers plant trees or short-term crops (Sellers

Results

Descriptive statistic on surveyed households in Cao Phong district

In overall, mean of total land area per each household is quite high (roundly 4ha) with the area of less than 1ha is 13% and greater than 3ha is 25% Although the difference of overall land area is no significant at the 95% confidence level between 2 communes (Table 4.0.3 - Appendices), though the land area of each household own in Bac Phong much diverges than in the Xuan Phong commune It is evident that the forest area including plantation forest, protection forest and community forest are accounted for 85% of total land area The 15% left are agriculture land and resident area or rented land

Table 4.1 Characteristics of surveyed households by communes in Cao Phong district

Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev

The size of the standard deviation for the mean of the communities and for all respondents indicates the substantial variantion within communities as well as between them

Each of respondents were asked to indicate the education achieved by household head

In general, the formal education level in the average household is secondary school which holds 35% (Figure 4.1), by most of households surveyed is Muong ethnicity (89%) Beside that, 43% of total households is high school or college above, 20% is primary school, and only 2% of total household is illiterate The result indicates that, in overall, households are attaited the primary level of education since Cao Phong district is still a poor rural area Different of education level beteen 2 communes is presented by Table 4 - Appendices

Figure 4.1 Education level of household heads in Cao Phong district

The results (Table 2 – Appendices) show that 33% of households have difficulties in accessing to market due to long distance (>6km), however most of households just need to travel with the distance of smaller than km), investment capital for tree planting (No investment0), knowledge on silviculture (Bad0), the decision of household forwards planting tree will be fostered to 67% which is higher than the original decision 20%

Conversely, if we take all the households participating to forestry program (Yes0), their knowledge on silviculture is good (Good0), the main sources of investment capital

41 for tree planting is from forestry program (Forestry program0) and distance from home to market is between 6 to 12km (6 to 12km0) We would raise the tree planting decision of local people from 47.1% to 88.2 %

* Poor households contribute a larger effort of planting tree than moderate and rich households?

In Xuan Phong and Bac Phong commune, the total land area and total household cash income will help to classify household ranking The total land area which ranges from 0 to 0.5ha is poor household, from 0.5 to 2ha is ranked as moderate, rich household has >=2ha of total land area

From the BNs of area of trees will be planted, we entered the total land area (0 to 0.5ha 0), the mean of planted area is increased to 2.29 ±2.8ha which is higher than the

42 initial area (2.02±2.7ha) In the same way, we also compute the value in total land area (0.5 to

2 ha 0) with moderate household, and (>=2ha) with rich household Moderate household increases the area up to 2.41±2.9ha, and rich household sinks to 1.56±2.3ha as the figure of results As a result, we can conclude that the moderate household tends to plant tree the most, the second is poor household, and the last is rich household

*Government policies contribute significantly to tree planting of local people?

The analyses of the contribution of government policies to tree planting reveal government role in improving forest area and encouraging plant tree with forestry programs The increasement of tree planters‟ percentage with the support from government will interprete the results of policies contribution to planting tree Nevertheless, the government policies will not have positive influence on raising forest area

By surveyed data, most of respondents cited that incentives from government forestry program are training cources, seedling and materials, and money Based on that information, the child node will be defauled as land tenure (Yes0) which help extending for land tenure rights, knowledge on silviculture (Good0), investment capital for tree planting (Forestry program0) We get the BN result as below

As we can see, tree planting decision has increase slightly from 47% to 54% in compare with the initial case However, government supports is still a major contribution to forest planting

Discussion

The difference of perspectives of households about planting trees

This study clearly shows that the tree planters and non- tree planters varied in their socio-economic characteristics (Table 9 – Appendices) However, the socio-economic characteristics that were significantly different between tree planters and non-tree planters varied between the different villages, communes and conditions (such as different forestry program, planting experience etc.)

Farmers in both communes with larger land holdings tend to own more trees, yet those with limited land and resources prefer agriculture or off-farm work over tree planting due to food security concerns Wealthier farmers can better afford the long-term investment and delayed income from timber, making tree planting less accessible for poorer farmers who lack capital and incentives Participation in community forests often emphasizes forest protection and management rather than planting trees Additionally, regular communication among community members enhances farmers’ knowledge of tree planting techniques and fosters a greater sense of responsibility for forest conservation.

In this study, it is no correlation between age and tree plantation (Pearson correlation

Research indicates that age has no significant influence on tree planting activities, aligning with findings by Thatcher et al (1996) and Zhang and Flick (2001) Additionally, older farmers are often perceived as less flexible, more risk-averse, and less willing to adopt new or innovative practices, which can impact their engagement in sustainable forestry initiatives.

The average age of tree planters is 44.8±11 years, while non-tree planters average 47.3±9.6 years, indicating that younger individuals are more actively involved in tree planting (Lee and John W Schelhas, 1997) In Cao Phong district, many young people work on family farms or contribute to tree planting alongside their agricultural activities, with some also working as laborers on fruit farms owned by wealthier households in Bung village Older individuals, who previously engaged in tree planting, often find little profit after harvesting, and since tree planting requires relatively low labor input, this may contribute to the decline in participation among the elderly.

According to (Thacher, Lee et al 1996, Glendinning, Mahapatra et al 2001, Owubah,

Education significantly influences farmers' decisions on tree planting and conservation efforts; however, the study by Le Master et al (2001) found no statistically significant difference based on education levels Additionally, the distance to the field was not related to farmers' decisions to plant trees, indicating other factors may play a more crucial role in promoting sustainable forestry practices.

* Research question 3: What are households’ motivation for planting or not planting trees?

Farmers primarily plant trees for financial reasons, which is the main motivation in both Xuan Phong and Bac Phong communes While economic benefits drive tree planting decisions, social motives also play a significant role, with 52% of respondents indicating that social factors influence their planting activities.

Environmental motivations played a significant role in tree planting, with 69% of households and 80% of acacia planters citing ecological reasons In Bac Phong commune, acacia trees were primarily planted to utilize sloped, bare land that was otherwise difficult to farm due to limited resources, labor shortages, land boundary protection, or unsuitable soil conditions Farmers also planted acacia, melia, and eucalyptus trees to generate income through selling timber; when market prices were low, they used the trees for personal fuel wood Social pressures and government forestry programs further influenced farmers' decisions to plant trees, showcasing a combination of environmental, economic, and social factors driving reforestation efforts.

Oppositely, the main cause reported for households not participating in the forestry program was that these households were not established at the time of the program

Many farmers remain unaware of the forestry program or are located in regions not covered by the project, resulting in a lack of allocated village land for tree planting Specifically, in Xuan Phong commune, 37% of farmers cited the primary reason for not participating as simply not having available land This highlights the need to improve awareness and expand land allocation to enhance the program's reach and effectiveness.

In the households that were not planting Dendrocalamus membranceus Munro mainly reported that they preferred Dalbergia tonkinensis Prain and Chukrasia tabularis A.Juss because it provided better price or Dendrocalamus membranceus Munro for regular income

In fact, according to observations and the key informant interviews in the two communes, almost all the farmers who owned forest land actually planted – or allowed natural regeneration of – at least some acacia

Trees mainly acted as saving accounts, as most of the tree planters (100% of Aquilaria crassna Pierre, Chukrasia tabularis A.Juss, Dalbergia tonkinensis Prain planters) used or planned to use the income received from wood for investment, anticipated expenditures, such as for buying home stuffs Almost all acacia planters (90%) used or planned to use the income from wood for daily consumption, and 10% used for unexpected expenditure (most of them belong to AR-CDM project)

Table 5.1 Farmer’s reasons for planting trees and not planting trees

Reasons for planting trees Reason for not planting trees

Fuel wood 5 No profitable/no resources 45

Experience in planting tree 69 No markets 5

Environmental reason (erosion, water conservation)

Hobby/satisfaction 54 Unfavorable to planting trees 32

Land border/ for land security 89 No land tenure 11

Enough labour 42 No time/labor 58

Use the bare land 10 Climate/ land not suitable 31

Easy to access to the land

(accessible with car or motorbike)

71 Difficult to access to the land

Easy to protect 41 Difficult to protect 59

Can sold little by little 2 Long rotation 45

Know about forestry program 57 Prefer fruit farm 19

Having harvest and transport rights

75 Doesn‟t have harvest and transport rights

Good knowledge on price of outcome

53 Doesn’t know about price of outcome

Sources: Surveyed data 2015 (data from 100 households in Cao Phong district)

Photo 5.1 Tree planting for fuel wood in Bac Phong commune

* Research question 4: What are the main disadvantages related tree planting?

The most often cited disadvantages related to tree planting by the tree planters were the slow growth or long rotation length Low prices received for the wood and high dead ratio were also often cited by the farmers Long rotation length was mentioned because it took a 7 to 10 year period to harvest Acacia and Melia species, it is different with Dendrocalamus

47 membranceus Munro can provided regular income to farmers every years after 3 years of established The disadvantages of planting timber tree were listed by 100% of tree planters as nowadays more and more households want to transfer their land or change their land use to fruit farms

With the households that involving in AR-CDM project (mainly in Bac Phong commune), the most cited disadvantages related to project is lack of information about official acceptance from the project Participants confuse to deal with their forests when no official agency can calculate and pay for Carbon amount of each households, people also cannot harvest their timber due to contract validity In the tree planter‟s households, most of them did cite disadvantages that they were mainly disturbances caused by pests (mainly insects), browsers (livestock), or stealing (people)

Table 5.0.2 Percentages of farmers mentioning specific disadvantages of tree planting

Lack of fertilizers (difficult to get) 54

Competition with other land-use practices 10

Lack of water for tree planting 11

Fire forest due to dry weed 1

Potential actions which may increase planting forest in Cao Phong district

Based on tree planting decsion BNs and forest area will be planted BNs, we have total

6 main factors that need to be influenced

5.2.1 Suggestion based on attitude of tree planting

(Seline S Meijer; et.al 2015) showed that tree planting significantly depended on membership of a farmers group and on the attitude towards tree planting In this study almost all tree planters had favorable attitudes towards tree planting, thus the attitude plays an important role to suscessful planting forest project However, farmers‟perceptions related to their plantation quality, the price they received from wood, and the behavior of other tree planters around them, influenced their planting decision

The research form Malawi found that farmers who planted trees on their land have more positive attitudes compared to farmers who have not planted trees Moreover, more positive attitudes also lead to a higher density of planted trees on a farmer‟s land The analyses revealed that positive attitudes are a good predictor of tree planting behaviour in the areas studied The subjective norms in the study meaned that farmer feel encouraged by others, such as their spouse, village chief, farmers group, extension workers and peers to plant trees The perceived behavioual control was only moderately positive This implies that farmers encounter factors which enable tree planting as well as those that hinder it This suggests that farmers who engage in tree planting behaviour feel more encouraged by important others to plant trees and also experience fewer hindrances when planting trees (Seline S Meijer; et.al 2015) From these norms in Meijer study, we can apply in this study area to promote positive farmer attitude forward tree planting in Cao Phong district

By interview survey, most of ideas from local people for effective tree planting is policy enforcement to all households There will be a well mornitoring as well as verifying agency to each households every year

Since most households in the study had indifferent attitudes towards tree planting (2.75 over 5 on the attitude level) and were aware of the benefits associated with it, attitudes are probably still are barrires to tree planting in Cao Phong district

We have already known that incentives influence to attitude of tree planting of household and dirrectly effect on area of trees will be planted The more incentives that household receive, the more they would like to plant tree We will test the results of the model after absorbing other factors which also related to forest area will be planted in BN As the incentives is influence (yes0), there are 60% of total household favorable and very favorable to tree planting with an average 2.11±2.7ha On the other hand, if no incentives were given (no0), the attitude of people toward planting tree just stays at 46% with mean of area is 1.93±2.6ha

5.2.2 Suggestion based on investment capital for tree planting

The priority ranking demonstrated that farmers consider household needs, such as buying food and tuition fee for children‟s school more urgent than investing money in tree planting There results is again found in Malawi Still, in this study, Cao Phong is a rural area and food security is the most important target of each households Whereas it takes a relatively long time to see the benefits from planting timber tree, farmers rather spend their capital on items which relieve food insecurity in the short term

It is an envidence to say that, tree planting fails to be taken up by the „poorest of the poor‟and hiders too much risk by investing time and labor in new technologies which have uncertain benefits in the long term (Seline S Meijer; et.al 2015) As we already have in this study, the percentage of poor household plant tree less than moderate household Therefore, poverty and inequality are strong barriers against the adoption of forestry program in Cao Phong

An interesting finding in the study is that, serveral respondents said about reasons that lead to the failures of forest project is low quality of seeds as the main barriers to tree planting, participants explained that they have been discouraged because of low survival rates of tree seedlings

From the surveyed information, the forestry project should invest on the moderate ranking and provide local people the suitable climate/soil species to increase forest area In the reality, investment capital is influenced by accessibility to plantation and length of rotation With the short rotation length and difficult to access to plantation, no significant investment was recored, however the mean of area will be planted still jump up to 2.08ha It might be uderstand that with the short time tree species, there will be lower profit if the household invest much money on them due to difficult to access and hard to manage, thus the area of planted tree mainly contributed by border protecting or saving bare land

Forestry program as well as each household will invest more money if that species has higher price or is more valuable (long time rotation length), therefore most of households will plant near their home with a smaller area for easy management and protection

Photo 5.2 Rich household invest on Aquilaria crassna Pierre species

5.2.3 Suggestion based on knowledge on silviculture of local people

The point that approximately half of total interviewees (48%) cited that they do not know well about silviculture, and 11% of total household requested to have a training cources

51 for planting timber tree The other tree planters thought that their plantations were good and they could learn from the other households or timber tree does not need much silviculture techique to take care Most of the farmers (46%) thought that they received good prices for their wood, but they had not realized that the prices they received could be greatly increased

It can therefore be concluded that farmers did not fully recognize the importance of silvicultural management to improve their plantation productivity and quality, as well as potential price they received for their wood

Almost acacia planters cited that it takes 7 to 10 years to harvest tree due to the timber volume will be decreased and hollow inside the trunk when they leave them for more than 10 years Acacia also needs a lot of water during growing period, thus the dry soil and cold weather would be difficult for tree can develop Some reported that they did not know how to handle with insect that destroy tree especially acacia at the first and second year of establishing The insects such as mouse, ant, cricket, termite can eat and gnaw the tree leave and root leading to dead or decreasing in tree quality A lack of silvicultural knowledge or training is found to lack of idea for planting a new alternated species in Cao Phong district The study recommends that the government should deploy more extension officers to do regular Siviculture training to ensure increase farmer‟s knowledge of planting tree

5.2.4 Suggestion based on distance to market

Figure 5.1 Climate condition were answered by households in Cao Phong district

In this study, 31% of total households cited that the climate is unsuitable for planting acacia, however, to find an idea species that have good price, suitable with soil and climate as well as high productivity seem to be a difficult problem to solve The fact that all the households attend to forestry projects were depended and influenced by the government supports or company that provided the seedlings The farmers that decided which species to plant themselves were more likely to have favorable or very favorable attitude towards tree planting, and were more likely to be willing to tree planting

Furthermore, most of the tree planters indicated that they can get a good price from selling tree were know very well about silviculture techniques and readily advised the other households This is a good case to demonstrate effect of successful tree planters has encouraged others planting activities

Limitations and suggestions for future research

The study does have a number of limitation in term of the ability to extrapolate the findings and design the interpretation of the results on the survey Due to time and capacity are limited, the study still not covered all area of Cao Phong district and extend other factors related to tree planting of local households such as environment, culture, and policy as well as management activities

During the field survey, there is a risk of social desirability bias where respondents have a tendency to answer questions that the interviewer or others that they think researchers want to hear One more limitation of this study is that I only include household heads in the

56 household survey, thus there is a lack of education, age, gender, and other household factors of other people in the households

Bayesian network can be developed more for the child nodes relationship inorder to give more suggestion and diverse solution to increase tree planting and area will be planted For future studies, we should involve more perspectives of the household heads as well as their family member to better understand about gender dimensions; further extend other factors, other field such as community forests, protection forest at different region or area

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