Giáo trình Quản trị tài chính doanh nghiệp: Phần 2 - PGS.TS. Phạm Quang Trung

Giáo trình Quản trị tài chính doanh nghiệp: Phần 2 - PGS.TS. Phạm Quang Trung

C h u o n g 8

C A C QUYET OiNH VA PHAN TICH

VE CHI PHI DAU TU

Cac nha quan ly trong tat ca cac cong ty phat xem xet cac

quyet djnh quan trong lien quan den cac luong tien sau nhieu

nam Cac quyet dinh do lien quan den nhung ket qua thu duqc

tu cac tai san ma cong ty da dau tu nhu: may moc, phucmg tien

va anh hucrng tai cac hoat dong cua cong ty Cac quyet dinh dau

tu do anh h u a n g lan tai vi the canh tranh cua cong ty

8.1 Cac quyet djnh dau tir

107

can phai xcm xct trong quyet dinh dau tir nlur vay Yi du, eo'iig

ty A phai xcm xct cac van de nlur viec sir dung kem hieu q]ua cua cac may loc khong klii ma cong ty dang sir dung, xcm xct den chat luong san pham co phai do van de nay gay ra khong Rat kho dinh luong khi no khong dirge tinh vao chi phi ngay ilap tuc nhung vice danh gia rat quan trong trong ra quyet dinh dlau

ket qua cua tat ca cac du an ve nam hien tai Hinh sau day mc> ta

du an nay bang cac diem tuong trimg cac hoat dong cua du am

Ifin/i H-8.1 M ot to clurc nlur la m ot sir tup hop cua cac dir an

va cac cltir&ng trinh

Cac du an hoac chuong trinh

CBA

Cac quyet djnh dau tu trong cac dir an dai han thirong tao

tin'n: m ot bg phan cua qua trinh xay d u n ; ke hoach chien luge

( ac Liu Ur Ion tron>i cong nghe san xu.a va vice mua sam cac

tai s;n co ma tri Ion duac thirc hien co the dan toi cac thay doi,

n a n g c a o nang suat va tinh canh tranh cita cac cong ty

8.2 Q u a tr inh duvet dir an dau tu

Sue manh iau dai cua mot cong t\ co the bj anh hudng rat

l>Vn Idi cac quyct dinh dau tu co ban, vi vay nhieu cong ty ldn

cd qi y trinh duyet du an dau tir rat phuc tap, thudng bi bat buoc

th u e hien theo dung quy cach Cac bieu mau cu the dugc sirdung va cac yeu cau dugc xem xet vdi nhieu cap do quan ly

H au let cac tong cong ty ldn d Viet Nam cd phong ke hoach

d a u tx hoac Ban dau tu cd chirc nang phan tich cac de an dau tu

B uoc 2: Gia djnh va phan tich cat luong tien cua d u an

Cac luong tien ciia du an phai dugc tinh cho toan bo thdi giam on tai ciia dir an Co nhieu cong cu dung de phan tich cac luditu tien, mot so cong cu trong so dd dugc gidi thieu trong clnrrcng khac ciia giao trinh nay Trong thue te, co mot sd nha

109

quan ly lap dir an da co tinh lam cho cac luong tien trong de an dau tu cua ho tang tinh hap dan Vice phat hien ra nhung gian

lan do thucrng la kho neu cac nha quan lv do co kien thuc sau rong ve hoat dong kinh doanh cua ho va thi truong cua ho

B u a c 3: Qua trinh p h e duyet d u an dau lie

Cac muc do tham quyen de duyet cac de an dau tu la khacnhau giua cac cong ty Chi phi cua mot du an cang Ion thi nguoi

B u a c 4 P han tich va lua chon d u an

Theo cac hoat d o n g xuc tien thuc hien cua nguoi de xuat

d u an, d u an se d ugc tham dinh va lua chon boi cac nha quan ly

co tham quyen cua co n g ty

B u a c 5 Trien k h a i thuc hien d u an

Cac d u an da d u g c phe duyet se dugc trien khai Cac van

de lien quan la xay d u n g hoac mua sam tai san moi, tuyen cac nhan vien moi va dao tao cac nhan vien cu

B u a c 6: K ieni tra, danh g id m uc do hoan thanh d u an

kc; hoach han dau va dir tinh cac luon:.; tien Tien trinh bao cao dira tren ket qua cita dir an trong ky hoat dong hoac kv tai chinh.

Tat nhien, khong phai tat ca cac dir an dugc phe duyet

th eo cac buac tren Trong cac cong ty nho, cac b u a c tien hanh khac xa voi mau tren Trong cac cong ty Ion, giam doc cac dan

8.3 Cac cong cu phan tich d y an dau tu'

Cac cong ty co quyet dinh thirc hien hay khong mot du an

d;au tu n h u the nao? R5 rang cac anh huang ve tai chinh cua du

a n phai dugc xem xet Do la, cac chi phi cua moi du an phai durgc so sanh vai cac !gi ich ma cong ty se nhan dugc tu thue hiien d u an Trong quyet dinh chi dau tu, cac chi phi va Igi ich

so tien thu dugc tir ban may cu chi phi tiet kiem dirge tir khi sir diing may moi, va gia tri dugc ket chuven lai tir khi ket thuc dir

an mua may mai nay

Co nhieu cong cu khac nhau de phan tich cac luong tien

do nhu: thai gian hoan von, ty suat Igi tire ke toan, luong tien

chiet khau (DCF) Hai cong cu dau khong de cap den gia trj thaigian cua luong tien Do dugc gia dinh rang mot dong nhan dirge trong tucmg lai co gia tri bang mot dong nhan ngay hom nay

Cong cu luong tien chiet khau do xem xet cu the anh fnrang den gia tri thoi gian cua luong tien Cac luong tien lien quan den dir

an nay dugc gia dinh va tong ket trong cot thu nhat cua bang

8.1 Co khoan tien chenh lech giua luong tien ra va luong tien vao va luong tien ra cua bo phan phuc vu va cua cong ty la rong, khong bao gom cac phan tich khi chung khong thich hop voi

quan den nhieu yeu to khong on dinh

Bang B-8.1 M ay CT - cac luong tien cho hai phitffng an

Dan vi tinh: USDP/a 1: Mua them

mot may CT mai

P/a 2: Thay may

CT cu bang may

CT maiDau tu ban dau (thai diem 0) (585.000) (676.000)

Dau tu rong (thai diem 0) (659.715) (526.000)

8.4 Cac phan tich su- dung luong tien chiet khau

hieu khai niem co ban ve gid tri (hai gian cua luong den Ban

muon nhan 100 trieu dong trao ngay ngay hom nay hay 100

trieu dong vao ngay nay nam sau Hau het tat ca chung ta muon nhan tien ngay hom nay Hai ly do giai thich sir lira chgn nay

Ly do thu nhat, neu chung ta nhan dugc tien hom nay, chung ta

sc sir dung no ngay thay vi phai dgi den nam sau Ly do thu hai,

gian di cimg vdi tien to Do do 100 trieu dung chung ta cc nga\

horn nay se khong ngang bang vai 100 trieu dong sau mo: nam ,

hai nam, hay nnrcri nam

Khi phan tich luong tien kco dai trong nhieu nam phan

tich chi dung khi dua tat ca gia tri tien trong cac nam vc cung

m ot thai diem P h u a n g phap phu hop de sir dung la luong tien

c hiet k h a u , cong cu nay se tinh toan gia tri theo thai gian cua

luong tien Chung ta can chiet khau luong tien trong ttrang lai

de lam chung ngang bang ve gia tri hien tai

Co hai nguyen ly dugc sir dung rong rai trong phan tich

chiet khau cac luong tien: nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong va ty

suat hoan von noi tai Moi nguyen ly do se d u a c sir dung de

phan tich cac luong tien lien quan den quyet dinh mua may cua

cong ty A

8.4.1 Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong

Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong xac dinh gia tri hien tai cua

B u a c 2: Tinh toan gia tri hien tai rong cua moi luong tien,

sir dung lai suat chiet khau la ty le sinh lai nho nhat du g c chap

nhan de dau tu cua cong ty N o thirang dung de do lu a n g chi

t

phi von cua cong ty

*

B u a c 3: Tinh gia tri hien tai rong (NPV), la tong gia tri

hien tai rong cua cac luong tien trong tirng giai doan thai gian

Hia/c 4: Neu NPV duong (NPV > 0) co nghTa dir an kha

thi dira tren phu a n g dien tai chinh NPV cang cao, du an cang kha thi h an va duac lira chon Tuy nhien can luu y rang thong tin tai chinh chi la mot khfa canh do dira vao do ra quyet dinh

C hien lirac hay cac cong cu dinh lirang khac co the du kha nang

va co trong luong trong cac quyet dinh quan ly

8.4.1.1 Xcic dinh N P V cua cac luong tien trong d u an

m ua them m ot m ay m ai (M).

Luong tien lien quan tai du an mua them may M (phuang

an 1) d u a c ghi trong bang 8.1 Trong bang 8.2, cac luong tien ciugc trinh bay theo cach de lam rd thcri gian thue hien cua moi

luong tien Dau tu ban dau mua may M duac coi tai thai diem goc bang 0 Moi luong tien cua moi nam tir nam thu 1 den nam thir 5 d u a c chiet khau ve thai diem 0, su dung N PV de chiet khau moi luong tien vai lai suat chiet khau la 10%/nam Cach

de nhat de tim gia tri hien tai rong cho moi luong tien la s u dung cac bang gia tri hien tai

* 8.4.1.2 Quyet dinh dua tren gid tri hien tai rong (NPV)

f

Phan tich gia tri hien tai rong cho thay mua them mot may

M (so tien 659.715 USD) se thu duac tiet kiem chi phi doanh thu tang them (gia tri hien tai la 693.570 USD) tuc la se cao han chi phi ban dau Gia tri hien tai cua luong tien vao se cao han

gia tri hien tai luong tien ra la 35.855 do la Vi vay theo phan tich N PV phuang an 1 la kha thi

8.4.2 Nguyen ly ty suat hoan vdn noi bo

Mot nguyen ly khac cung dung de chiet khau cac luong

tien trong phan tich du an dau tu la nguyen ly ty suat hoan vonnoi bo Ty s u a t h o a n v o n n o i b o duac dir an thu lai qua cac

115

hoat dong kinh doanh trong suot dai dir an Mot phirong an Khac dung de chiet khau la ty suat noi hoan la t\ le chiet khau td doeia tri hien tai morm muon thu lai luomz tien vao imane bam: vai

gia tri hien tai cua luong tien vi vay 1RR la lai chiet khai: mavai lai suat do thi N PV cua luong tien bang 0

Hang B-S.2 Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong: Phuang (in 1

Don vi: USDTong gia tri Gia tri hien tai Cac luong tien moi nam

hien tai cua SI vai 10% 0 1 2 3 4 5Dau tu ban dau

Tiet kiem chi

phi hang nam

T6ng ti5t kiem chi phi: 693.570 USD

Gia trj hien tai rong: 33.855 USD

Ty suat hoan von noi bo cua dir an mua may M (phuang

an 1) la bao nhieu? Trong phan truac du an danh gia theo N PV

la kha thi, vai lai suat chiet khau la 10% Vay IRR se cao hernhay thap han lai suat chiet khau (i = 10%) Lai suat chiei khauduac sir dung trong tinh NPV cang cao thi gia tri hien tai cua tat

ca cac luong tien trong tu a n g lai cang thap Bai vi lai suat chiCrnliroc cao nghTa la m o n g muon thu duac hoi von nhanh Vi vay

trong vi du lai suat chien luac cao han 10% se lam cho gia tri

hi<;n tai rung dan tai ().

S.-/ 2 1 Xac dinh IRR

IRR co the duac tinh theo cong time sau:

n

P = I C t / ( 1 + r )"

t=lP: Chi phi ban dau

Ct: Gia tri luong tien rong duac tao ra hai du an trong giaidoan t

Being B-8.3 Nguyen ly ty su noi hoan: p h u a n g an I

D a n vi tinh: USD

Tong gia tri Gia tri hien tai Cac luong tien raoi nam

hien tai cua SI vai 10% 0 1 2 3 4 5

* T6ng tiet kiem chi phi: 659.715 USD

Gia tri hien tai rong: 0 USD

8.4.2.2 Cac quyet dinh d u a tren IRR

Bay g ia chung ta tinh d u a c IRR la 12% Cong ty A su

dung thong tin nay de ra quyet dinh nhu the nao?

Mot de an dau tu d u a c chap thuan ve p h u a n g dicn tai

chinh neu IRR Ion h a n lai suat chiet khau 10% Vi vay, theo

phan tich chiet khau luong tien thi co the chap nhan phuang an

mua mot may M mai

Ket luan: van dung nguyen ly IRR khi chiet khau luong

*

tien theo cac b u a c sau:

• Lap mot bang ve cac luong tien moi nam cua ke hoach dau tu Cac luong tien do giong cac luong tien dung de tinh

NPV (cot 1).

• Tinh IRR cho du an dau tu Sir dung may tinh tai chinh hoac c huong trinh phan mem Co trudng he rp dung phuong phap thu va loai tru de tim lai suat chiet khau tai do NPV = 0

• Neu IRR lan han lai suat chien luge thi du an kha thi

ve p h u a n g dien tai chinh

8.4.3 S o sanlt hai cong cu N P V va IR R

Trong truong hop nay NPV va IRR deu ung ho phuong an mua may M moi Khi xem xet viec chap thuan hay loai bo mot

X

du an, nguyen ly thuong hoac ca hai cong cu deu ung ho hoac

ca hai cong cu cung khong ung ho de xuat du an

8 4 3 1 Cac iru diem cua viec ap dung phucmg p h d p N P V

Nguyen ly NPV co nhieu uu diem han nguyen ly IRU

Mot la, neu tinh toan trong phan tich du an dau tu bang phuang phap thu cong, each tinh N PV la de han tinh IRR Uu diem nay khong con quan trong khi sir dung may vi tinh hoac may tinh tai chinh de tinh toan

l / u diem thu hai cua nguyen ly NPV la su phan tich co the

khau trung binh, IRR ciia du an

l / u diem thir ba, NPV luon chi nhan dugc mot ket qua

119

Khi luong tien thay doi tir dua n g sang am ngoai doi du an, co

nhieu IRR dugc tinh cho mot dir an Dieu nay co the xay ra neu

co luong tien am trong nam thu 3 nam thu 4 5 la duong v.'t am

trong nam thu 6

\

8.4.3.2 Gia dinh tai dau tic

Uu diem cuoi cung cua NPV so vai IRR lien quan toi gia

dinh tai dau tu ngam dinh trong nguyen ly IRR Trong nguyen

ly IRR, cac luong tien co kha nang dicn ra suot du an dugc gia

dinh dugc tai dau tu vai lai suat bang lai suat IRR cua dir an

khi cac luong tien d u a c tai dau tu vai lai suat chict khau

N h u a c diem cua IRR so vai NPV lien quan tai su sap xep

cua d u an Sir dung IRR co the dan tai cac quyet dinh kem chinh

r \

xac ha n so vai sir dung cong cu NPV Cac van de nay dugc thao

luan trong phan cuoi cua chuang Noi chung cong cu NPV

th u a n g dugc sir dung nhieu han cong cu IRR khi danh gia du an

\

dau tu

8.4.4 Cac phan tich chiet khau luong tien theo cac gia

dinh

Giong nhu bat cir mot mo hinh quyet dinh nao, nguyen ly

chict khau luong tien dua trcn cac gia djnh Ngoai gia dinh tai

dau tu dugc trinh bay a trcn, nguyen ly chiet khau luong tien

dua trcn hai gia djnh quan trong:

• Thai diem kct thuc cua luong tien: Trong tinh toan gia tri hien tai dugc sir dung trong nguyen ly NPV va IRR, tat ca

luong tien dugc coi la tinh vao cuoi nam Tuy nhien, neu cong

do tiet kiem chi phi va doanh tim lane them se dirge thue hien a

cac thoi diem khac nhau trout.: nu;i nam Khi sir dune may dien

toan yeu cau phan anh chinh xac thoi gian eua moi luong tien se

lam rac roi hon cho pluin tich dau tu Han che khi sir dung quy

irac thai gian linh moi luon" tien vao cuoi nam noi chung la

khong anh h u a n g Ion tiri sir phan tich dau tu

• Sir on dinh cua luong tien: Chiet khau luong tien phan tich xem cac luong tien co thich hgp voi du dau tu hay khong

khi chiing dugc coi la on djnh Mae du trong cac phuang phap

phan tich dau tu neu cac yeu to khong on dinh da dugc phat

trien, chiing khong dugc sir dung rong trong thue te Nhu dugc

de cap a tren, su dieu chinh do rui ro dugc thue hien trong phan

tich NPV de tinh cac kha nang hien doi khong on dinh ciia

luong tien

Trong thue te, cac gia dinh do hiem khi dugc dap ung

Tuy nhien, mo hinh chiet khau cac luong tien tao ra nguyen ly

sir dung rong rai va hieu qua trong phan tich dau tu

8.4.4.1 Xac dinh ty le chiet khdu (Discount Rate)

/ / % ' r r \ \

Ty le chiet khau sir dung de chiet khau luong tien trong

phan tich NPV, hay lai suat hoan von trong nguyen ly IRR, no

th u a n g dugc dura tren chi phi von trung binh Chi phi von la

khoan tien can bu dap so von da dau tu cho mot du an Mot du

an moi tang them gia tri von cho cac co dong bang cach tao

luong tien lan han chi phi nguon von da sir dung trong du an

dau lu

Chi phi von dugc tinh toan dira tren chi phi ciia tat ca cac

loai von cua mot cong ty Cac cong ty tao nguon von nhu the

nao? Chinh phii va cac don vi kinh doanh ciia Nha nuac thuang

121

vay von bam; each phat hanh lrai phieu hoac vav cac to chirc tai chinh Cac cony ty lien doanh lao cac nguon von bang cacti phat hanh co phieu hoac vay muon Vi vay chi phi \ on so la chi phi trung binh cua cac nguon von do.

Danh gia d u an, lai suat chict khau dira trcn chi phi \'6n trung binh, do do no dugc dieu chinh cac rui ro cho phu hgp vai tung dir an cu the

Vai lai suat 10% dung de chiet khau cac luong tien moi nam trong du an mua may M Muc lai nay dugc tinh bdi vi no la chi phi von trung binh cua cong ty tra cho nguon von vay

f \

dugc va cac lap luan chii yeu ve cac khoan nhan dugc Chiing ta

se hoan thanh viec phan tich chiet khau cac luong tien nhung muc tieu se dugc lua chon p h ua ng an co chi phi thap Day la

quyet dinh chi phi thap nhat: han la toi da hoa N PV cua luong tien vao trir di luong tien ra, muc tieu la toi thicu N PV cua chi phi phat sinh

Vi du khac ma quyet dinh chi phi thap nhat co the dugc thuc hien la: mua thiet bi an toan, chi phi cho cac thiet bi dc dap ung cac yeu cau ve chat lugng moi truang nlur la die u klnen khong khi hay sir dung chat thai

Khi tai san dai han dirge mua chi phi thu hoi ciia tai san

do duac tinh nizirac vai loi nhuan tronu nhieu uiai doan banu khau hao Tuy nhien, chung ta khong cong chi phi khau hao vao trong phan tich luong tien Ca NPV va IRR tap trung chu yeu tren cac luong tien, va chi phi khau hao dinh ky khong phai la

Chi phi ban dau: S659.715

M uc khdu hao hang nam theo phuang phap duong thang (D)

D = S I 31943 D = S 131943 D = S 131943 D = S 131943 D = $131943

(V.4 6) K h a u hao tai s a u

Thai

g ia n

Chi phi ban dau, Chi phi khau hao khong phai la cac ludng tien la mot luong tien ra

Tuy nhien chi co luong tien 659.715 do la la luong tien dien ra de thu hoi cho may mai Khoan tien 131.943 do la la so tien khau hao hang nam khong phai la luong tien Vi vay, chiing

ta ghi chi phi thu hoi duac la mot luong tien trong phan tich dau

tu, nlurnu chiinu ta khonu ehi mire khau hao hany nam, chiina khong phu lujp trong phan tich chiet khau luong tien

123

H.4J) 1 Khau hao irony, cac cony, ty phai )i(p thuC

Gia su quyet dinh dau Ur c r ban da tinrc hien, con;’ ty, mot to cln'rc trong kinh doanh co tnich nhiem phai nop thuc thu nhap Vi du, Cong ty C co the xcm xct mua mot lie thong may tinh Dieu nay se thay doi sir giai quyet cua chung ta ve khau hao hang nam trong phan tich luong tien - khau hao van khong phai la luong tien Tuv nhicn, khau hao gan vai sir khau trir thue Thanh toan thue la cac luong tien, va giam thuc do khauhao dugc tinh trong phan tich cac luong tien Chucmg tiep theo

phan tich chiet khau luong tien, thu dugc NPV d u a n g va IRR la 12%, cao hem lai suat chict khau la 10% Phuang an hai la thay the may M cu bang may M mai

Cac luong tien lien quan tai ca hai phuang an ducrc mo ta trong bang 8.2 Chung ta xcm xct su so sanh giCra hai phucmg an

bang cach sir dung cong cu chiet khau luong tien Bang 8.4 dua

ra gia tri hien tai rong cua hai phu a n g an Gia tri hien tai rong cua phuang an mua them mot may M mai dugc so sanh vcri gia tri hien tai rong cua p h u a n g an thay the may M T rong khi NPV cua ca hai p h u a n g an deu lan han 0; NPV cua p h u a n g an

1 cao han cua p h u a n g an 2 la 31.520 do la

f u n r.; !l-n.4 Phan tic h i’id tri hien ta i r u n:/ cua die an m ay M

Dan vi tinh: USD

Chcnh lech gia tri hien tai rong cua pluron g an I va phuang an 2 la: 31.520 do la.

8.4.7.1 IRR cua hai dir an

Chung ta da tinh IRR cua phuang an 1 la 12% NPV cua phuang an 2 la 2335 USD thap han NPV cua p h u a n g .in 1, chung ta d u tinh la IRR xap xi 10% IRR chinh xac duac tinh bang p h ua ng an thir va loai trir hoac bang bang tai chinh IRR cua phuang an 2 la 10.18% So ngay duac kiem tra bang ciich thay IRR vao NPV va tai mire lai suat do NPV = 0

8.4.7.2 So sanh cac phan tich cua hai dir an m u a may M

Chung ta co thong tin tai chinh can cho bao c a o cua chit

cu NPV luon dua ra ket luan dung han

Chung ta thay ro chii d u an tai cong ty du a ra cac tranh luan co sire thuyet phuc cao hem doi vai yeu cau m u a mot may

M mai ha n yeu cau thay the may cu Ket qua phan tich tai chinh

ciini! mg ho phuang an I

.)icu gi xay ra neu phuang an 2 o \ i’V cao han phuang

an 1 >eu phuang an i co NPV am? Bam: a, h chirng minh cac

iru ciiini Ion ve vice mua them mot ma\ M cac y kien tranh

luan co trong luang co the hieu qua hern cac k e t qua tai chinh

Olni du an ket luan rang phuang an lot nhat la mua mot

tin'lli not may M mai Bao cao hoan chinh cua ba ta duac giri

leu b a i giam doc cua cong ty cho phep ho xcm xet cac y kien

cua ibata va may mai duac dau tu nlur the nao Trong bao cao,

t \

chu di an xem xct ca van de tai chinh va thong tin quan trong

khi x e n cac y kien cua ba ta Day la phuang phap ra quyet djnh

dau Hudien ra trong cac to chirc kinh doanh Trong khi mot phan

tich vi khia canh tai chinh cua du an chinh xac la huu ich cho

ling dung cua cac nguyen ly chict khau luong tien la

chunig inh toan dugc cac gia tri thai gian cua tien

'uy nhien, nha quan ly doi khi sir dung cac cong cu khac

de plhai tich cac luong tien cua mot du an dau tu Cac cong cu

khac k: thai gian hoan von va ty le sinh lai ke toan Doi khi cac

cong cu do duac su dung dong thai vai phan tich chiet khau

luonjg ien doi khi no duac sir dung doe lap Co nhieu ly do doi

vai rrnct cong ty de lua chon cac cong cu khac Hay xem xet cac

luoiv.g ien lien quan vai hai ke hoach dau ur cho bo phan dich

vu ciuacong ty A

127

Thai gian hoan von cua ii' t dir an dau tir la so nam r.ia lai

do cac luong tien cua dir an dirge luy kc den mot khoan r.ia bu

dap dirge chi phi dau tir ban dau Cong thirc tinh thai gian hoan

von:

i Von dau tir ban dau

I hai uian hoan von = —— i -rr - t:—:—

Luong tien moi namTrong cong thue thoi gian hoan von khong de cap den gia

tri thai gian cua tien Cac luong tien tu nam thu nhat den nam

thir nam giong nhau ve gia tri Day chinh la mot han che

Tinh thai gian hoan von cua du an mua them mot may M

mai nhau sau:

T h a i gian hoan von = - — = 3,61 nam

Vi vay thai gian hoan von trong p h u a n g an 1 la 4 nam

8.5 J 1 N guyen ly thai gian hoan von vai cac luong tien khong on dinh

Cong thue thai gian hoan von da n gian khong dung neu

dau T hai gian hoan von cho phu a n g an 2 co cac luong tien

khong deu d u g c tinh n h u trong bang 8.5

o 5 / A g u y c n ly thd'i gian oan von

Bring B-H 5 Thai gian hoan von cua cac luong tien

\ khong dcu nhan: p h u o n g an 2

1

!

Nam Cac luong tien (do la) Cac luong tien luy ke vao

| cuoi nam (do la)

Theo nguyen ly thai gian hoan von, thai gian ho&n v6n

cua p h u a n g an 2 cung nhu phuang an mot, la nam thu 4 Tuy

nhicn nguyen ly nay bo qua cac luong tien dien ra sau n&m thu 4

va khong xem xet den gia tri thai gian cua tien Co hai han che

cua nguyen ly nay nhu sau

8.5.1.2 Nguyen ly thai gian hoan von: cac y kien tan themh va p h a n hoi

Nguyen ly thoi gian hoan von trong danh gia du an dau tu

co hai han che chu yeu sau:

• Bo qua gia tri thai gian cua tien: Nguyen ly thai gian

hoan von gia dinh la luong tien nhan duac trong tuang lai cung

ngang bang ve gia tri cua luong tien nhan duac trong n&m hien

tai Trong thuc te, chung ta can chiet khau cac luong tien trong

tuang lai de lam chung ngang bang ve gia tri vai cac luong tien

hien tai, bai vi cac Iti0ii6 tien hien tai co the duac dau tu de thu

dugc lai trong tuang lai Tuy nhien, trong khi nguyen ly thai

gian hoan von khong xem xet den gia tri thai gian cua tien,

129

khong co ly do giai thich tai sao chiet khau luong tien Um'ii ' dugc su dung trong cac phan tich nay %

« Bo qua cac luong tien phat sinh sau thoi gian hoan von: Chi co luong tien 6 giai doan cuoi cung ma von ban dau da dugc bii dap dugc coi la phu hgp trong cac phan tich nay va \ i vay nguyen ly thai gian hoan von tao ra mot bite tranh khong hoan chinh ve tai chinh eua du an dau tu Tat ca cac luong tien phat sinh sau thoi gian hoan von bi bo qua

Mac du co cac ban che tren, phuong phap thoi gian hoan

von dugc su dung rong rai trong thirc te, vi nhieu ly do

- D an g ia n : Chi tieu thai gian hoan von de hieu va de tinh

han so vcri nguyen ly chiet khau luong tien

- Tao b u c man che cho d u an dau tu: Nguyen l v thai gian

hoan von dau tu cung ^ ap mot cong cu che dau d u an dau tu.Neu mot d u an khong tim dugc tieu chuan thai gian hoan von, nha quan ly co the tir choi du an mac du cac luong tien lan tiem

an dugc tinh trong tu a n g lai

«

S 5.2 Xtfuyeii ly ty /<? sin It tin ke loan

Ty le sinh lai hach toan tap trung vao cac Igi nhuan ke toan luy kc dirge nhan tir du an Lgi nhuan kc toan dugc dua trcn thuc te phat sinh Vi vay doanh thu dugc nhan trong suot

<]ua trinh ban hang ehir khong nhat thiet la khi tien dugc thu vao chi phi dugc xcm xct trong suot ca thoi ky dugc thu vao, chi phi dugc xem xet trong suot ca thoi ky ma chung phat sinh

trong bang 8.1 can dugc phan tich lai theo thuat ngu doanh thu

va chi phi (Trong vi du chung ta gia dinh rang luong tien vao la

doanh thu hay tiet kiem chi phi moi nam, luong tien ra la chi phi trong cung mot nam)

Doanh thu cong don cua du an gia dinh la 90.000 do la

m ot nam Chi phi cong don la so am, khi chung bao gom tiet kiem chi phi la 93.00C do la Dieu nay dugc chinh lai ve tiet kiem chi phi la 200.000 do la cong vai 107.000 do la Gia sir M

co thoi gian sir dung la 5 nam, theo phuang phap khau hao

d u a n g thang, mire khau hao hang nam dugc tinh nhau sau:

131

S 5.2.1 Sir dung dau nr trung binh

Mot so nha quan ly thich tinh ty le sinh lai ke toan sir

dung khoan dau ur trung binh trong mot dir an cho mau so, han

day du cae chi phi cho dir an Cong thirc nlnr sau:

Ty le sinh lai Lot nhuan trung binh hang nam cua dir an

Trung binh dau tir ciia mot dir an la gia tri ghi so ke toan

trung binh ciia d u an Gia tri ghi so trung binh ciia du an mua

may M la:

_ , , ,x (Dau tu ban dau + Gia tri tan dung)

Trung binh dau tu ~ — - - *—1 :—

hoan (12%) Koi chung, moi quan he duoc mo ta nhu sau:

Ty le sinh ^ Ty suat hoan Tv le sinh lai

lai ke toan vdn noi bo ke toan

• T u a n g ung vai cac nguyen ly ke toan tai chinh: Mot sonha quan ly sir dung phuang phap nay hai vi no tuang xirng vai

c;ic bao cao tai chinh ke toan, no dua tren ghi chep ke toan

• T u a n g img vai he thong gia tri thuc hien dua tren lgi

tren ke toan, nhu la tai dau tu

• Theo doi toan bo du an: Khong giong nhu nguyen ly

phi hoat dong, yeu cau von hoat dong tang them, hay chi ohi cong don va doanh thu Rat kho dir tinh khi co rat nhieu cac you

to thay ddi Chung ta tlnrdng nhd den cac so lieu ke toan cu do dir tinh chi phi Cac hieu biet vc dieu kien thi trudng, xu hu<Tn$> kinh te va cac phan img cua ddi thu canh tranh la quan trong trong cac luong tien dir an

Hai cong cu dirge sir dung trong thue te de phan tich kc hoach dau tu ma cac du tinh luong tien khong on dinh:

b Sic dung p h a n tich do nhay cam Phan tich nhay cam

d u g c sir dung de danh gia do nhay cam cua cac anh h u d n g ciia

Gia tri hien tai

Tiet kiem chi phi hang

nam d u a c d u tinh

@ 1 0 %

NPV - 34.038 USDGia sir clui cur an khong bict ch.a.; \ c so tien tiet kiem chi phi hang nam Tiet kiem chi phi hang nan: giam bao nhieu truac khi quyet djnh se co ket qua NPV nho lion 0? Can hoi luong tu la: Chi phi tiet kiem hang nam la bao n h ie i de NPV - 0 trong quyet dinh nay? Khi NPV = 0, gia trj hien tai ciia tiet kiem chi phi bang vai chi phi ban dau:

r

' 11 Px1 = phi tiet kiem = tiet kiem x chiet khau

hang nam Thua so chiet khau hang nam

= 174021 USDNeu chi phi tiet kiem hang nam la 174021 USD, NPV cuaphuong an 1 se bang 0 (659715 - (174021 x 3.791) = 0) Vi vay

/

chi phi tiet kiem hang nam dugc du tinh truac tien la 183000 USD co the giam xuong con 74023 USD, du an van dugc chap thuan ve p h u a n g dien tai chinh

8.7 Kiem toan dir an dau tu- da hoan thanh

dinh da dirge tong ket trong kc hoach dai: tir P( A dirge sir dung

de cung cap cac thong tin phan hoi ve do chinh xac cua cac giadjnh ban dau cho dir an Doi khi PCA se chi ra cac thu nhap

chat lugng ciia cac gia dinh cua dir an da bi tu choi

Khi trong nhieu qua trinh danh gia su thue hien, viec hau khong nen sir dung cac cong cu gay kho khan Trong diem hau kiem se la cung cap thong tin toi cac nhan vien phong

dg toan dau tir nguoi quan ly d u an va doi quan ly Phuong phap hau kiem lam cho vice tong ket rut kinh nghiem dugc dedang va de hoan thien cac du tinh luong tien va quyet dinh dir

\

toan dau tu

Kiem tra cac dir ait dau tic

Nhieu d u an dau tu co thoi gian dai de hoan thanh nhu

chang han xa y mot toa nha Ion hay phat trien vung dau mo Lgi ich thu dugc tir du an sau khi hoan thanh dugc thay ro tren ca thoi gian dai De giup kiem tra cac du an dau tu c o ban, cac nha quan ly co the du a tren nhieu khai niem va cong cu dugc nghien

cuu D u toan co the dugc doi chieu voi cac ket qua thirc te, su chenh lech d u g c tinh toan va bao cao thue hien du tinh dugcchuan bj Q ua trinh kiem tra doi vai cac du an dau tu c a ban la

rat kho khan He thong ke toan thuong khong d u g c thiet ke de theo doi timg d u an nho Boi vi moi d u an la duy nhat, co thekhong du g c thue hien trong thoi gian trd ve truoc do do khong

<S.S Danh gia su thuc hien cua du an: v a n de h a n h vi

Xcm bang X I theo each khac mo ta mot to chirc khi tap trung cac dir an dau tir c a ban Khi bieu do chi ra, sir thuc hien dirge mot thai gian cu the bao gom cac kct qua dugc ket noi cua sir 11urc hien cua cac dir an dang thuc hien trong suot thai kv do

Prong thue te, co sir khac nhau giira cac tieu chuan danh gia cac

du an thanh vien va cac tieu chuan dugc sir dung de danh gia tong the ca d u an cua nha quan ly va cac phan doan kinh doanh Sir khac nhau nay dugc phan tich qua vi du sau Gia su lanh dao phoug ban cua cong ty A dang xem xet mua mot may mai Thai gian sir dung la 5 nam, viec dua may mai vao su dung dugc mong dgi se tang doanh thu cho cong ty Chi phi ban dau cua may mdi, doanh thu du tinh, chi phi du tinh va gia tri hien tai rong nhu sau:

N P V = 23.960 USD

Lai chiet khau la 10%

Mac du he thong mai co NPV ducmg, doanh thu trong cac

; Tien 1l.: j]40.000j 150.000 i 2o0.000 ! 2SO.OOO '00.000 JjTru di khau hao j 160.0001 160.000 | 160.000 j 160.000 • i 60.000 j

ta i tang them ;( 20.000)!10.000) j 100.000 | 120.000 : 140.000 I

Chi phi khau h-o san khong phai la luong tien va vi

vav cac chi phi do knorm duac tinh tronu nhan tich uia tri hien• - 4 »w »— < w

tai rong Man nfra, miie khau hac hang nam dm re tru di theo

p huang phap ke u a n theo phat sinh thirc te de xac dinh lai

nhuan d a tinh Vi vay mot sir khac biet co the xay ra git'ra

p h ua ng phap chiet khau luong tien va danh gia sir thue hien

theo ke toan phat sinh thirc te Van de nay it khi xay ra khi

phuang phap ty le sinh lai ke toan (tai dau tu) d u a c sir dung de

danh gia cac ke hoach dau tu Tuy nhien, cac phong ban va cac

nha quan ly su dung p h ua ng phap tai dau tu neu ty le sinh lai

ke toan d u a c sir dung la phuang phap danh gia du an, no du a c

tinh nhu la tv le truns.' binh hang nam tren toan bo cac nam thirc

hien dir an Trong khi phuang phap ty le sinh loi ke toan co the

d u a c chan thuan de danh gia du an, ROI than dtrae dir tinh

trong cac nam dau tien co the lain cac nha quan ly nan chi khi

dau tu d u an

Don gian, mot nha quan ly co the tir choi mot d u an co

NPV d u a n g mac du no da duac toan bi) cong ty chap thuan Bai

vi no se giam leri nhuan phan chia trong cac nam dau, vao tao

earn giac la cac nha quan ly khong thirc hien tot Di nhien, trong

dai han, d u an se co ket quit vai mire lai nhuan cao cho bp phan,

nhung chi trong cac nam thue hien dir an ve sau

Giai phap ticm nang cho van de hanh vi dupe mo ta tren la

vico iir dung cong cu do luong dira trcn ioi nhuan Khi thuc hien phuang phap chict khau luong tien do ra quyet dinh lira chon du an dau tu, danh gia sir thuc luon du an dua trcn hau kiem ciia du an do Tuy nhicn, do luirng hicu qua dua tren ketoan phat sinh theo thirc te la phuang phap tot trong thuc te Co

Thu nhap cua khoan dau tir \ a o mot tai san dirge cau thanh bai hai bg phan: T h u nhat la thu nhap do chinh ban than tai san do mang lai va thu hai la 16 hoac lai do giam hoac tang gia cua tai san dau tu (con dugc ggi la 16 hoac lai ve von).

, Thu nhap Lai (hoac trir 16)

Dc minh hoa ro han, chung ta hay nghicn ciru thi du sau:

Thi du 1:

Dau nam gia mot co phieu cua doanh nghiep A la 37 dan

vi tien te (dv), neu mua 100 co phieu ta phai chi mot khoan la

3.700 dv Gia su rang: Sau 1 nam doanh nghiep A se tra lai co

phan la 1,85 dv cho 1 co phan, vay ta se nhan dugc:

Thu nhap tir co phan = 1,85 dv x 100 = 185 dv

Lai gia sir tiep rang vao cuoi nam gia moi co phieu tang len la 40,33 dv vay ta co lai ve von:

Lai vc von - (40,33 dv - 37 dv) x 100 = 333 dv

I rong tnrong hon eia cua moi c-i r h e u giam xuong 34.78

dv ta sc bj lo vc von:

Lo vc von = (34,78 dv - 37 dv) \ 100 - -222 dv

Tong so doanh loi trorm turoni: hop co lai vc von:W * v v • I

l ong doanh loi - 185 dv + 333 dv - 518 dv

Gia dinh rang: ta co mot so co phan ciia doanh nghiep A

va khong ban co phieu vao cuoi nam, lieu ta co nghT rang co mot khoan thu nhap ve von trong tong so doanh loi ciia ta hay

Tren day chiing ta da noi ve doanh loi tinh bang so tuyet

Doanh l o i doi gia co phieu cuoi ky

tirong doi ~~ Gia co phieu dau ky \ ■ )

Theo thi du 1, doanh loi tuong doi duoc xac dinh nhu sau:

Doanh loi tuong doi = = 0,14 — 14%

Do su thuan tien ciia doanh lai tuang doi, tu nay ve sau

141

khi ta noi thuat ngir doanh lai thi co nglmi hi ta noi vc doanh ■

t u a n g doi

f 9.1.2 D oanh lo'i th u c te va doanh loi danh n<>/ua* ♦ « o

Doanh lai thuc te d u a c tinh toan theo cach a tren duac goi• * • O «

la: doanh lai danh nghTa So di ta goi do la doanh lai danh nghia

5dv + (5dv x 0,05) - 5,25dv Neu dau nam ta bo ra lOOdv de

m ua co phieu, cuoi nam ta se ban co phieu ya thu d u a c tong so

tien la 1 15,5dv Gia sir vao thai diem do ta dung tien thu du a c

de m ua nhom, ta se mua dugc: 115,5/5,25 = 22kg nhom Neu ta

do doanh lgi bang lugng nhom mua dugc thi doanh lgi tuyet doi

se la: (115,5/5,25) - 20 = 2kg nhom Doanh lgi tu a n g doi sc la:

2/20 = 0,1 = 10% N h u vay, doanh lgi danh nghTa a day la

15,5% n h u n e tren thuc te sue mua cua ta chi tanu 10% niihla la

doanh lgi thuc te bang 10% Vai chi so lam phat la 5%, moi dvtrong tong thu nhap danh nghTa ( 1 15,5dv) se giam 5% trong giatri thuc te cua no Vi vay, gia tri thuc te trong khoan dau tu cua

ta d u a c xae dinh nhu sau: 115.5/1.05 = 110 dv (doanh lgi thirc

te tuyet doi la lOdv va doanh lgi thuc te tuang doi la 10%)

N eu ta goi R la doanh lgi danh nghTa r la doanh lgi thuc

ve viec giam gia tri ciia doanh leu do lam nhat (rh).

Thanh phan thir ba thuong rat nho, ' d vay, tren thue te khi tinh toan nguoi ta thuong bo di iMur vay, cong thue tinh toandoanh loi danh ptihla thue te n h u sau:*

cac loai co phieu nay n h u sau:

Thong thuong, cac Chinh phu tien hanh vay ng bang cachphat hanh chung khoan N h u n g chung khoan nay dugc the hienduoi nhieu hinh thirc khac nhau Trong so cac chimg khoan cua Chinh phu thi tin phieu thuong co thoi han ngan nhat va lai suat

cua ho phai co do tin cay cao nhat nen ho rat thich mua tin phieu l u y nhien, cung co nhirng nguoi thich mao hiem vai hy vong se dat d u a c doanh lai cao hon.

ciia My d u a c the hien nhu sau:

Trai phieu doanh nghiep dai han 5,3%

Trai phieu doanh nghiep dai han 1,7%

145

9 I \ P h u o ’ng sai va do lech tieu chuan ve so lieu thong

ke theo thoi gian cua doanh loi

Phirong sai ia tone cac binh p h u a n g trung binh cua dochenh lech giira doanh lot thuc tc va doanh lgi binh quan (ky

hieu la 6 ) P huang sai cang Ian thi doanh lai tlnrc tc cang ci> xu

h u a n g khac biet nhieu han so vai doanh lai binh quan Do lech

tieu chuan la can bfic hai cua phu a n g sai (ky hieu la 6) Trong

muc nay chung ta se tinh toan phuang sai va do lech tieu chuan dua trcn so lieu lich sir cua doanh nghiep Vi vay viec tinh toan

se giai thieu sau day chi dung cho trua ng h a p tinh toan phuang sai dua tren so lieu lich sir Trong truang h a p ta muon xae djnh phu a n g sai cho cac khoan doanh lai du kien trong tuang lai thi each xae dinh p h u a n g sai se khac so voi p h ua ng phap xae dinh

d u a c giai thieu trong muc nay De hieu ro each xae dinh

p h u a n g sai dua tren so lieu lich sir cua doanh lai, chung ta hay nghien ciru thi du sau day:

Thi du 3: De tinh toan phuang sai va do lech tieu chuan,

ta gia sir rang: co mot khoan dau tu da tien hanh duac bon nam vai doanh lai thuc te cua timg nam: 0.10 0,12 0,03 -0,09.Doanh lgi binh quan se la (0,10 + 0,12 + 0,03 - 0,09)/4 = 0,14 Chung ta hay xem xet bang sau day: