Such insights into the impacts of various (nexus and non nexus scenarios) and, more pertinently (20)

223 Figure 6 39 Share of CO2 Emissions by Scenarios Source Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research Table 6 7 Total emissions by sectors CO2 emissions by sector (Mt) 2014 Base –year[.]

223

Figure 6-39: Share of CO2 Emissions by Scenarios

Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research

Table 6-7: Total emissions by sectors

CO 2 emissions

by sector (Mt)

2014 Base –year

SC1 BAU

SC2 Energy

SC3 Food

SC4 Water

SC5 FEW

SC6 Low Carbon

Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research

In the SC1 BAU scenario, total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 303.7 Mt in 2030

with an average annual increase of 7.9% during the next 16 years In terms of output, the highest value (243 Mt) was for energy (56.4%), followed by residential (20.8%) and transport and services (15.4%) (Figure 6-39) Therefore, the continuation of existing policy would inevitably lead to negative impacts on the environment The BAU scenario