214 with crude oil and coal exports accounting for more than 90% (Table 6 5) This indicates that the continuation of the existing business development strategy would generate heavier reliance on fossi[.]
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with crude oil and coal exports accounting for more than 90% (Table 6-5) This indicates that the continuation of the existing business development strategy would generate heavier reliance on fossil fuels and raw materials, which would, therefore, create potential risks in the trade balance of the country in the long run as these resources are becoming scarce and limited This context would, furthermore, impact the feasibility of Vietnam’s socio-economic development due to its resource-centric economy, along with its rapid population growth in the coming decades
Table 6-6: Trade balance in Vietnam in various scenarios ($US million)
2014
2030
SC1- BAU
SC2 Energy
SC3 Food
SC4 Water
SC5 FEW Nexus
SC6- Low Carbon
Trade balance 1,268.0 32,021.7 36,509.1 36,956.2 37,899.4 113,401.9 109,237.6
Net exports of:
Energy 21,241.0 103,810.6 103,810.6 102,696.9 103,783.6 106,848.8 101,740.3
Oil 19,219.5 93,930.9 93,930.9 92,923.2 93,906.5 96,441.1 91,825.8
Steam
Food 24,573.3 120,096.3 120,096.3 124,933.4 128,589.3 137,112.8 130,638.1
Livestock 5,806.4 28,377.2 28,377.2 27,962.7 28,369.8 29,631.1 28,231.9
Other
(Agriculture
product: rice,
meat,)
Industrial goods 93,763.2 458,245.7 458,245.7 449,375.7 454,130.8 470,987.5 406,891.2 Commercial and
Source: Estimates based on modelling developed in this research
In the SC2 Energy scenario, the total trade balance is expected to reach USD 35,813
million in 2030, accounting for 10.4% of the total GDP, equivalent to an annual increase
of USD 2,202.6 million, and a 23.4% increase compared with the base year (2014)