230 In the SC1 BAU Scenario (hereinafter, SC1), as shown in Table 6 6, the GDP increases by a factor of 2 5—from US$ 131 5 billion in 2014 to US$ 330 2 billion in 2030 The corresponding increase in in[.]
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In the SC1 BAU Scenario (hereinafter, SC1), as shown in Table 6-6, the GDP increases
by a factor of 2.5—from US$ 131.5 billion in 2014 to US$ 330.2 billion in 2030 The corresponding increase in investment is 2.3 times—from US$ 13.6 billion to US$ 31.2 billion The employment during the period increases by 3.5 times, from 52.7 million jobs
in 2014 to 182.2 million jobs in 2030 To support these increases, the demand for energy, water, and food will increase on average by 230% over the period between 2014 and
2030 More specifically, energy will increase by 255%, and both food and water by 219% These results indicate significant impacts on energy, food, and water security, with
important implications for energy, food, and water policies over the next sixteen years Table 7-1: Energy-Food-Water Security: 2014 – 2030 (SC1)
Scenario
Energy security Food security Water security
Energy
accessibi
-lity (%)
Energy import – depende n-cy (%)
Energy affordab i-lity (%)
Energy intensity (toe/Mn$)
Energy diversity (Herfindahl index)
Energy efficien
cy (%)
Food accessi bi-lity (%)
Food import dependen -cy (%)
Food affordab i-lity (%)
Water stress (%)
Water affordab i-lity (%)
Water intensity (m3/US$)
Water
efficien-cy (%)
Base year
(2014) 4.6 14.9 4.2 273.6 0.37 74.0 8.7 18.7 41.2 59.0 0.25 24.1 23.4
SC1-BAU
(2030) 4.3 16.5 3.9 480.3 0.43 70.7 8.3 19.2 39.5 62.2 0.23 27.0 19.5
Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research
As shown in Figure 7-1 and Table 7-1, the continuation of existing policies is likely to cause significant energy insecurity in Vietnam by 2030; indeed, conditions have already worsened considerably since 2014 In SC1, it is estimated that the energy security index will be 69 in 2030, representing a decrease of 11.8 from the base year (2014) (Figure 7-1) Major contributors to this decrease in energy security include the lack of diversity in the energy fuel mix, as well as the slow introduction of new and advanced technologies
to substitute existing conventional energy production technologies This will invariably increase energy import dependency from 14.9% in 2014 to 16.5% in 2030 (Table 7-1), with a corresponding decline in energy security with a security index of 7.5 (Figure 7-1) Furthermore, energy intensity will worsen in this scenario—declining by 36.9 units on the energy security index—compounded by the increasing energy demands of economic activities and population growth
Moreover, three other attributes of energy security will be negatively impacted: namely, energy accessibility (36.9 units decline on the index), energy efficiency (9.9 units decline), and energy affordability (11.08 units decline) (Figure 7-1) As a result, the