Luận văn đánh giá giá trị giải trí và giá trị sử dụng của vườn quốc gia ba bể bắc cạn

Muc dich nghien ciru - Su dung phuong phap chi phi du lich theo vung udc tinh chi phi cua du khach den Ba Be, tir do xay dung ham cau va xac dinh gia tri canh quan cua khu du lich Ba Be.

NGUYEN QUANG HONG • I UAN VAN TIAC NAM 2006

MUC LUC

MO DAU 1

CHlTONG I: LY THUYET VE DINH GIA GIA TRI GIAI TRI VA GIA TRI PHI SL DUNG CUA MOT VU’ON QUOC GIA 4

1.1 Virdu Quoc gia va Tong gia tri kinh te cua Vuon Quoc gia - 4

7.7.7 Vuon Quoc gia va su can thief danh gid gid tri cua VQG 4

? r r 1.1.2 Tong gid tri kinh te cua mot Vuon Quoc gia 6

1.1.3 Phuong phap dinh gid gid tri cua mot VQG 10

1.2 Phuong phap chi phi du lich dinh gia gia tri giai tri cua VQG -11

1.2.1 Phuong phap chi phi du lich (TCM - Travel Cost Method) 11

1.2.2 Mo hinh ly thuyet ham chi phi du lich 12

1.2.3 Mot sd phuong phap tiep can chi phi du lich 14

1.2.4 Tong quan cac nghien cuu su dung phuong phap chi phi du lich de danh gid gid tri canh quan 19

1.2.5 Mot so uu diem han che cua phuong phap chi phi du lich 21

13 Phuong phap dinh gia ngau nhien trong dinh gia gia tri phi sir dung - 22

1.3.1 Phuongphap dinh gid ngau nhien (Contingent Valuation Method - CVM)22 1.3.2 Mo hinh ly thuyet ve dinh gid ngau nhien 24

1.3.3 Cac bucrc tien hanh dinh gid ngau nhien ; 26

1.3.4 Tong quan cac nghien cuu su dung CVM do luong gid tri phi su dung cua moi truong 28

1.3.5 Mot sd iru diem va han che cua phuong phap dinh gid ngau nhien 31

CHlTONG II: TONG QUAN VE VlTOiN QUOC GIA BA BE - BAC KAN 33

2.1 So’ lwov lich sir hinh thanh va phat trien VQG Ba Be - 33

22 Dieu kien hr nhien va kinh te xa hoi 35 2.2.7 Dieu kien tu nhien 35

2.2.2 Dieu kien kinh te - xa hoi • 37

23 Gia tri canh quan va gia tri da dang sinh hoc cua VQG Ba Be -39

2.3.1 Gid tri canh quan van hod lich su 39

2.3.2 Gid tri da dang sinh hoc 41

2.4 Hoat dong cua Vwon Quoc gia Ba B£ _ 45 2.4.1 Hoat dong bao ton thien nhien va giao due moi truong 45

2.4.2 Hoat dong du lich 48

r r 2.4.3 Hoat dong kinh te - xa hoi cua dan cu va tac dong den tai nguyen rung 50 2.5 Nhung ap lire bao ton va nhung viec can iru tien trong quan ly, bao ton -52

2.5.1 Muc tieu dat ra doi vdi cong tac bao ton 52

2.5.2 Cac dp luc va thach thuc doi vdi cong tac bao ton 53

A A

2 5.3 Cac boat dong can uu tien trong cong tac bao ton 55

CHUTONG III: DANH GIA GIA TRI GIAI TRI VA GIA TRI PHI SU’ DUNG VU’O’N QUOC GIA BA BE 57

3.1 Bang hoi phdng van va cac dac diem xa hoi cua doi twong phdng van — - 57

3.1.1 Bang hoiphdng van 57

3.1.2 Mau dieu tra 58

r ■> r r r 3.1.3 Mot so dac diem kinh te - xa hoi cua doi tuvngphdng van 59

32 Sir dung phirong phap chi phi du lich theo vung (ZTCM) danh gia gia tri giai tri tai VQG Ba BC 64

3.2.1 Nhung gid thiet co ban 64

3.2.2 Phan vung khach du lich 65

3.2.3 Xac dinh chi phi du lich 69

3.2.4 Ham caugiai tri 76

3.2.5 Duong cau giai tri va gid tri canh quan du lich cua VQG Ba Be 78

33 Danh gia gia tri phi sir dung VQG Ba Be bang phuwng phap CVM - 79

3.3.1 Mo hinh danh gid 79

3.3.2 Thiet lap thi tracing gid tucmg 80

3.3.3 Thu nhan thong tin ve muc san long chi tra 81

3.3.4 Phan tich cac yeu to tac dong den su bang long chi tra 84

3.3.5 Luang gid gid tri phi su dung VQG Ba Be 89

3.4 Ket luan nit ra tir nghien ciru va mot so de xuat 90 KET LUAN 94

TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 95

PHU LUC 1 97

DANH MUC CHU VIET TAT

BO NN&PTNT BO NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON

TEN BANG TRANG

Bang 1.1: Gia tri ton tai va gia tri de lai cua mot so VQG 29

Bang 2.2: So sanh tai nguyen thu rung mot so VQG 45Bang 2.3: So luong khach du lich den Ba Be tir 2003 den 2005 49Bang 3.1 Dac diem kinh te xa hoi cua du khach trong nude 59Bang 3.2: Dac diem kinh te xa hoi cua du khach nunc ngoai 61

Bang 3.4: Danh gia chat luong moi trudng cua du khach 64

Bang 3.6: Phuong tien du khach su dung den VQG 70

Bang 3.10: Tong hop chi phi cua du khach theo cac vung 76

r r

Bang 3.11: Loi ich giai tri cua du khach tir cac vung den Ba Be 79Bang 3.12: Ty le du khach san sang chi tra cho bao ton 82

DANH MUC HINH VE

Hinh 1.1: Tong gia tri kinh te cua moi truong 11

Hinh 1.3: Duong cau du lich trong truong hop chat luong moi

truong thay doi

19

Hinh 3.1: Cac hoat dong chinh cua du khach tai VQG 63

Hinh 3.2: Mot so diem du khach chua hai long 63Hinh 3.3: Ban do phan vung diem xuat phat cua du khach 67

NGUYEN QUANG HONG

DANH GIA GIA TRI GIAI TRI VA GIA TRI PHI SUf DUNG

CUA VUUN QUOC GIA DA DE - BAC KAN

Chuyen nganh: Kinh te - Quan ly tai nguyen va mdi trirdng

LU AN VAN THAC SY KINH TE

TOM TAT LUAN VAN THAC SY• •

Ngirdi hirdng dan khoa hoc: PGS.TS Nguyen The Chinh

Ha Noi - 2006

MO DAU

1 Ly do chon de tai

De tai “Danh gia gia tri giai tri va gia tri phi sir dung cua Vircm Quoc gia

Ba Be - Bac Kan” dirge thuc hien nham xac dinh gia tri giai tri cua VQG Ba Be bang

phuong phap chi phi du lich va xac dinh gia tri phi su dung bang phuong phap dinh gia ngau nhien Day la nhtrng gia tri phi thi trubng ma viec bao ton VQG co the mang lai cho the he hien tai va tuong lai Tir truoc tdi nay ngudi ta deu nhan thuc dugc cac gia tri vo hinh nay song viec luong gia chung khong de dang

Mat khac, vdi gia tri canh quan, da co nhieu nghien cuu danh gia d trong va ngoai nude nhung vdi gia tri chua su dung cd the day la mot nghien cuu dau tien d Viet Nam Do do, de tai mong muon xay dung mot phuong phap xac dinh gia tri chua su dung cd the tham khao khi thuc hien xac dinh gia rung d nude ta

2 Muc dich nghien ciru

- Su dung phuong phap chi phi du lich theo vung udc tinh chi phi cua du khach den Ba Be, tir do xay dung ham cau va xac dinh gia tri canh quan cua khu du lich Ba Be

- Danh gia chat luong dich vu du lich, su hai long cua du khach va de xuat muc phi vao cong cua VQG Ba Be

- Sir dung phuong phap dinh gia ngau nhien de xac dinh su bang long chi tra (WTP) cua du khach cho hoat dong bao ton cua VQG Sir dung mo hinh kinh te luong phan tich cac yeu to tac dong den WTP

- De xuat mot so giai phap nham ket hop hai hoa giua hoat dong du lich va hoat dong bao ton

cua VQG duatren ly thuyetcua kinh te hoc moi truong.

Ve dia diem nghien cuu, de taichitap trung nghien cuutai khu vucVQGBa Be

Ve thoi gian, de tai tien hanh dieu tra thu thap so lieu bang bang hoi doi vdi

du khach va thu thap thong tin thu cap tu thang 7 nam 2005 den thang 12 nam 2005

tai VQG Ba Be

4 Phuong phap nghien cuu

De co so lieu phan tich danh gia, de tai sudung phuong phap phOng van tructiep du khach, phong van truc tiep cac ho dan dang sinh song trong vung loi VQG

De tai su dung phuong phap thu thap so lieu thu cap tu cac co quan lien quan, su

dung phuong phapdieu tra thuc te va phuongphap thongke kinh te luong

5 Ket cau cua de tai

De tai ngoai phan mo dau ket luan, tai lieu tham khao va phu luc, noi dung

cua de tai gom 3 chuong:

Chuong 1: Lythuyet ve danhgiagia tri giai tri va gia tri phi su dung cua mot VQG

Chuong 2: Tong quan ve Vuon QuocgiaBa Be - Bac Kan

Chuong 3: Danh giagia trigiai tri va giatri phi su dung cua VQG Ba Be

1.1.1 Vuon Qudc gia va su can thief danh gid gid tri cua VQG

1.1.1.1 Vudn Quoc gia

Vuon Quoc gia la mot vung dat tu nhien dupe thanh lap de bao ton he sinh thai chuan cua mot dat nude Do la mot khu rung dac dung dupe quan ly va bao ve nghiem ngat nham bao ve lau dai mot hay nhieu he sinh thai

a r 1.1.1.2 Sy can thiet dinh gid gid tri cua VQG

Dinh gia gia tri cua mot VQG hay khu bao ton la edng viec kho khan song co

y nghTa quan trong va da duoc thuc hien tai nhieu qudc gia tren the gidi Do la viec

su dung cac cong cu ky thuat nham lupng gia gia tri bang tien cua cac tai san moi truong la cac VQG lam co sd cho viec hoach dinh chinh sach ve khai thac, su dung

va quan ly VQG

1.1.2 Tdng gid tri kinh te cua mot Vud'n Qudc gia

Ve tong quan, de do ludng tong gia tri kinh te cua mot tai san moi truong noi chung va mot VQG noi rieng, cac nha kinh te hoc bat dau bang viec phan biet giua

gia tri sir dung va gia tri phi sir dung.

Gid tri sir dung la nhung lqi ich thu duoc tu viec su dung nguon tai nguyen tren thuc te Doi khi cung cd the hieu gia tri su dung la gia tri cac ca nhan gan vdi viec tieu dung mot each true tiep hay gian tiep cac dich vu do nguon tai nguyen cung cap

Gia tri su dung hinh thanh tu viec thuc su su dung tai san moi truong, tren thuc te nd bao gom:

Gid tri sir dung true tiep la cac san pham hang hoa, dich vu true tiep cung cap ma chung ta cd the tinh duoc gia ca va khoi lupng tren thi truong

Gid tri sir dung gian tiep la nhung gia tri chu yeu dua tren chuc nang cua he sinh thai, cd y nghTa ve mat sinh thai va moi truong Noi each khac day la cac chuc nang co ban cua moi truong gian tiep ho trp cho hoat dong kinh te cua con ngudi

lua chon cua con ngudi dat ra trong he sinh thai.

Gia tri phi su dung con goi la gia tri khong su dung hoac gia tri chua su dung

va thudng truu tuong hon gia tri su dung

Gia tri phi su dung la thanh phan gia tri cua mot tai san moi truong thu duoc

khong phai do viec tieu dung mot cachtruc tiep hay gian tiep cac cac hang hoa dich

vu do tai san moi truongcung cap Gia tri phi su dung bao gom cac thanh phan:

Gia tri de lai (Bequest value) la thanh phan giatri thu duoc tu su mongmuon bao tonva duy tri nguon tai nguyen cho loi ich cua cacthe he hien taiva tuong lai

Gia tri ton tai (Existence value) la gia tri cua tai san moi truong co duoc tunhan thuc rang tai san do con ton tai

Loi ich tu viec biet rang cac gia tri van ton tai

Loi ich tCr chuc nang ci’ia MT

Loi ich true tiep

va gian tiep cua the he tuong lai

1

- MT song -Su song cua cac loai

I

- Chuc nang sinh thai

- Chong giobao

T

- Da dang sinh hoc

- Bao ton

MT song

Hinh 1.1: Tong gia tri kinh te cua moi truong

Tong gia tri kinh te cua mot VQG noi rieng va tong gia tri cua mot tai san moi truong noi chung thubng dupe danh gia thong qua gia tri su dung va gia tri chua su dung Gia tri su dung la nhung gia tri nhan duoc tu viec su dung true tiep VQG bao gom gia tri thu duoc tu go cui, thuc pham, duoc lieu va cac san pham phi lam san No con bao gom gia tri ttr chtrc nang sinh thai cua VQG nhu kha nang hap thu cacbon, kha nang chong gio bao cung nhu gia tri canh quan du lich, gia tri nghien cuu khoa hoc Con gia tri chua su dung la gia tri cua tai san moi truong duoc danh gia thong qua nhan thuc cua nhtrng ngubi dang str dung hoac khong su dung VQG No duoc danh gia bang su san ldng chi tra de bao ton tai san moi truong hoac bang long chap nhan mot muc den bu neu tai san moi truong bi xam hai

1.2 Phuong phap chi phi du lich dinh gia gia tri giai tri cua VQG

Phuong phap chi phi du lich la phuong phap duoc dung de danh gia gia tri kinh te cua cac he sinh thai canh quan, cac VQG su dung cho muc dich giai tri

Co so ly thuyet phuong phap TCM dua tren gia dinh chi phi ve thbi gian va chi phi cho chuyen di cua du khach se dai dien cho gia tri cua dia diem giai tri Do

do, tir su bang long chi tra cua du khach cho chuyen di va so luot tham quan cua du khach co the xay dung dubng cau the hien moi quan he gitra so luot tham quan va chi phi tham quan Sau do, gia tri canh quan cua dia diem nghien cuu dupe danh gia nhu la tong lpi ich cua du khach va dupe do bang phan dien tich duoi dubng cau

1.2.2 Mo hinh ly thuyet ham chi phi du lich

Mot each tong quat, chi phi du lich cua du khach i tbi dia diem giai tri j(TCjj) phu thuoc vao mot so bien:

TCjj =TC(DCjj, Ty , Fj)(l)

i = l n,j - 1 mTrong do:

DCjj la chi phi ve khoang each Chi phi nay phu thuoc vao do dai quang dubng tbi diem du lich va phu thuoc vao chi phi cho moi km di lai

F; la phi vao cua cua dia diem j.

Gia su Vj la so luot tham quan cua du khach i tdi dia diem j, khi do Vj la bien phu thuoc vao chi phi cua chuyen di (TCjj) va mot so bien the hien dac diem xa hoi cua du khach Ham bieu thi so lugt tham quan cua du khach nhu sau:

V; = a + b.TCjj + c INCj + d EDUj + e AGE; + f SEX,

Trong do:

V; la so lugt vieng tham dia diem j cua du khach i

TCjj: Chi phi cua mot lan vieng tham dia diem j

INCj: Thu nhap cua du khach i

EDU,: Trinh do hoc van cua ca nhan i

AGEj: Do tudi cua du khach i

SEX;: Gidi tinh cua du khach i

He sd a, b, c, d, e, flan lugt la cac he sd can dugc udc lugng

Sau khi udc lugng dugc cac he sd tiep tuc xay dung dudng cau mo ta moi quan he giua sd lugt tham quan va chi phi tham quan Phan dien tich nam dudi dudng cau se the hien gia tri canh quan cua dia diem giai tri

1.2.3 Mot so phicorng phap tiep can chi phi du lich

- Phuang phap tiep can chi phi du lich theo vung (ZTCM): su dung chu yeu

du lieu thu cap va mot sd thong tin tu khach du lich

- Phuang phap tiep can chi phi du lich cua ca nhan (ITCM): su dung chu yeu cac thong tin phong van dugc tu du khach

- Phuang phap tiep can dua tren do thoa dung ngau nhien (RUA): su dung thong tin tu dieu tra va cac nguon du lieu khac ket hgp vdi mot sd ky thuat thong ke

1.2.4 Tdng quan cac nghien cuu sic dung phuong phap chi phi du lich de danh gid gid tri canh quan

1.3 Phuong phap dinh gia ngau nhien trong dinh gia gia tri phi sir dung

1.3.1 Phuong phap dinh gid ngau nhien (Contingent Valuation Method - CVM)

“Phuong phap dinh gid ngau nhien la phuong phap xac dinh gid tri kinh te cua cac hang hoa va dich vu khdng mua ban tren thi truong Phuong phap nay sir dung bang hoi phong van de xac dinh gid tri cua hang hoa dich vu khdng trao doi

va do do khdng cd gid tren thi truong ” (Theo Katherine Bolt - Estimating the Cost

of Environmental Degradation).

Nhu vay, phuong phap danh gia ngau nhien la mot each tiep can dua tren thi truong gia dinh de danh gia gia tri cua mot hang hoa khong ton tai thi truong Moi nguoi se duoc hoi rang ho san sang tra bao nhieu tien cho su cai thien moi truong den mot muc nao do hoac ho se chap nhan muc bao nhieu cho den bu nhung thiet hai moi truong Tong muc san long chi tra (WTP) hoac bang long chap nhan (WTA) chinh la gia tri cua tai san moi truong

1.3.2 Mo hinh ly thuyet ve dinh gid ngau nhien

Gia dinh rang cac ca nhan hay ho gia dinh deu tim each toi da hoa do thoa dung khi thu nhap khong thay doi bang each lua chon hang hoa ca nhan va hang hoa cong cong Neu coi bao ton VQG la mot hang hoa cong cong thi sir bang long chi tra cua cac ca nhan la mot ham cua chi phi bao ton, gia cua cac hang hoa thay the, thu nhap va so thich Trong do so thich tieu dung lai phu thuoc vao cac bien so xa hoi nhu do tuoi, gidi tinh, trinh do hoc van, nhan thuc moi truong cua cac ca nhan

Mot cuoc tham dd duoc tien hanh co the thay rang ca nhan i san sang tra X $ cho hoat dong bao ton VQG neu nhu do thoa dung cua ho trong truong hop bao ton cao hon do thda dung trong truong hop khong bao ton Tuc la:

U(0, Y; S) < U( 1, Y - X; S) trong do:

0: Truong hop khong bao tdn VQG,

1: Truong hop co bao ton VQG,

Y: Thu nhap cua ca nhan,

X: Muc san long chi tra,

S: Bien so xa hoi co anh huong den su bang long chi tra

• Bude 1: Thiet lap thi tritang gid dinh

• Btcdc 2: Thu nhan cac gid duac tra

• Bicdc 3: Tinh WTP/WTA trung b'mh

• Bicdc 4: Uac tinh cac Dicdng Tra gid (Dudng bieu dien WTP/WTA)

• Bicdc 5: Tdng gop die lieu

• Bicdc 6: Danh gid cuoc khao sat CVM da tien hanh

dung cua nidi trirdng

CHUONG II: TONG QUAN VE VLON QUOC GIA BA BE - BAC KAN

2.1 So1 liroc lich sir hinh thanh va phat trien VQG Ba Be

Lich str hinh thanh VQG Ba Be dirge tinh tu nam 1977 theo Quyet Dinh so 41-TTg ngay 24/1/1977 cua Thu tuong Chlnh phu chinh thuc cong nhan Ba Be la khu van hoa lich su Quan diem tren dugc tai khang dinh trong Nghi Dinh 194/CP, ngay 9/8/1986 cua Chu tich HDBT giao cho Bo Lam Nghiep va cac co quan chuc nang tien hanh khao sat va xay dung du an dau tu cho Ba Be thanh VQG

Nam 1992, Vien Dieu tra quy hoach rung da hoan thanh viec xay dung du an dau tu thanh lap VQG Ba Be Du an da dugc Chinh phu phe duyet va Vuon Quoc gia Ba Be dugc chinh thuc thanh lap tir 10/11/1992 theo quyet dinh so 83/TTg cua Thu tudng Chinh phu Chuc nang nhiem vu cua Vuon la: bao ton cac nguon gen dong, thuc vat, cac he sinh thai, canh quan moi truong; to chuc, quan ly, phuc vu nghien cuu khoa hoc, du lich dich vu

2.2 Dieu kien tu* nhien va kinh te xa hoi• • •

2.2.1 Dieu kien tu nhien

Vuon Quoc gia Ba Be each Ha Noi 250 km ve phia Bac thuoc dia ban huyen

Ba Be, tinh Bac Can, bao gom toan bo dien tich dat xa Nam Mau, mot phan or cac

xa Khang Ninh, Cao Thugng, Cao Tri

Vuon co toa do dia ly: 22°30 do vi Bac, 105°36’ do Kinh Dong Tong dien tich dat dai tu nhien Vuon dang quan ly la 7.610ha trong do khu bao ve nghiem ngat 3.226,2 ha, khu phuc hoi sinh thai 4.038,6 ha, khu hanh chinh dich vu 300,2

ha, vung dem uoc tinh khoang 42.100 ha

Vuon Quoc gia Ba Be nam trong tieu vung khi hau cua vung Dong Bac Viet Nam, lai dugc che chan, bao boc bod cac day nui cao nhu Phja Bjooc va Phja Da nen khi hau o day kha thuan lgi cho su phat trien cua cac loai rung nhiet doi Nhiet

do trung binh hang nam la 22°C, nhiet do cao nhat trong ngay la 39°C, nhiet do thap nhat la 6°C, do am binh quan hang nam la 83%, lugng mua trung binh hang nam la 1378mm

2.2.2 Dieu kien kinh te - xa hoi • •

Cac dan toe sinh song d day co ngudi Tay chiem 44%, ngudi H’mong chiem 54%, nguoi Dao, Nung va Kinh chiem 2% Tuy co nhieu dan toe khac nhau nhung dan cu d day co tinh cong dong cao, song doan ket Moi dan toe deu cd ban sac van hoa doc dao rieng cua minh

Vdi phuong thuc canh tac chu yeu la trong lua nude, va canh tac nuong ray, nguoi dan d day chi co thu nhap binh quan moi nam khoang 298kg luong thuc quy thoc, muc thieu luong thuc d cac ho ngheo la tu 2 den 4 thang trong nam

Bang 2.1 Thu nhap cua dan cir vung Ho Ba Be

Nguon: So lieu dieu tra thang 8/2000 - Bao cao da dang sinh hoc VQG Ba Be.

Di lien vdi ngheo doi la lac hau, trinh do dan tri thap De co them mieng an, tang them thu nhap nhieu nguoi bat chap phap luat vao rung khai thac trom lam san Mac du cong tac quan ly bao ve cua VQG va nhan thuc cua nguoi dan duoc nang len song ngheo doi va dan tri thap van dang la ap luc ldn doi vdi bao ton cua VQG

Thuc trang kinh te xa hoi cua vung doi hoi phai nhanh chong nang cao ddi song va nhan thuc cua nguoi dan thi cong tac bao ton moi co the ben vung

2.3 Gia tri canh quan va gia tri da dang sinh hoc cua VQG Ba Be

2.3 J Gid tri canh quan van hod lich sir

Mot so dia diem du lich danh lam thang canh va di tich lich su van hoa dang chu y gom:

va da vdi, dai han 8 km, rong han 3 km va sau khoang 20 - 30m Ho duoc bao boc bdi nhung canh rung nguyen sinh tren nui hung vT va nhung vach nui da thang dung vdi tham thuc vat dac trung tao nen mot thang canh thien nhien tuyet dep

Gan day VQG va Uy ban di san Viet Nam da de trinh ho so len Uy ban di san The gidi de xet cong nhan Ho Ba Be la di san thien nhien The giai

• Vuan Quoc gia Ba Be: la mot di san thien nhien quy gia co dien tich khoang 7.610 ha Day la mot he thong rung nguyen sinh tren nui da voi voi nhieu loai dong, thuc vat quy hiem nhu Phuong hoang dat, Ga loi, Vooc mui hech Cung vdi Ho Ba Be, Vuan Quoc gia Ba Be la mot di san thien nhien dep vao loai bac nhat cua nude ta can phai duoc bao ve va dua vao khai thac phuc vu cho nhu cau ve nghi ngoi, giai tri, giao due va nghien cuu khoa hoc

• Dong Puong: Dugc tao bdi song Nang khi no chay xuyen qua mot nui da vdi Dong co chieu dai khoang 200 m, chieu cao trung binh la 25-30 m vdi nhieu hinh thu, cot da hung vT

• Thac Dau Ding: la noi tiep giap gitra song Nang vdi tinh Tuyen Quang Thac Dau Dang co chieu dai khoang 2 km, la noi song Nang bi chan lai bdi nhung tang da ldn nho xep chong len nhau vdi do doc chung 500 m, tao thanh mot thac nude ngoan muc, ky vi, hoa vao phong canh rung nguyen sinh tao ra mot an tuong rat dep trong long du khach

• Ao Tien la mot ho nude nho rong chung 3 ha nam tren dinh nui Duoc bao boc bdi rung nhiet ddi nen khi hau d day rat mat me va trong lanh Tuong truyen

z r

day chinh la noi cac nang tien thudng xuong tarn va danh cd

• Dao An Ma: La hon dao ldn khum hinh mai rua, tren dao co mot ngoi den

co ten goi la den An Ma do dong ho Ma tru tri Den rat thieng, vi the dep, la noi to chuc cac le hoi truyen thong hang nam

• Dao Ba Goa: nam each ben pha chinh khoang 300m, tren dao co mot bia da ldn khac chu nho mang nien hieu Khai Dinh, dudi chan dao la mot bai tarn ly tudng

vui lan nuuc dugc che mat bui bong ram cua cac cay co thu moc tren dao vuon than

va canh ra mat ho

Nhu vay, co the khang dinh gia tri canh quan cua VQG Ba Be la rat Ion, can phai co su tinh toan de dua cac diem tham quan vao khai thac thong qua hinh thanh cac tuyen tham quan

2.3.2 Gid tri da dang sinh hoc

2.3.2.1 Thuc vat

La VQG nam trong vung dia ly sinh hoc Dong Bac va nhu co dia hinh da dang, nui dat xen nui da nen tham thuc vat va thuc vat rung co nhieu kieu dac trung rieng Theo nghien cuu cua cac nha thuc vat thi VQG Ba Be co it nhat 5 kieu rung:

- Rung kin la rong nhiet doi thuung xanh mua am nhiet dui tren nui da voi,

- Rung tren nui da voi,

- Rung kin la rong thuung xanh mua am nhiet dui tren nui dat cao trung binh da bi tac dong phan bo chu yeu u do cao tu 700 den 1500m

- Trang cay bui, cay go moc rai rac

- Rung tre nua

Khu he thuc vat u Ba Be mang dac trung ban dia Bac Viet Nam voi 2 yeu to

co ban nhu sau:

- Yeu to ban dia co cac ho: Re, Dau, Tram, De Dau, Trom, Xoan, Bo hdn, Bum

- Yeu to di cu gum:

+ Yeu to Malaixia - Indo nhu cac loai Cho nau,+ Yeu to Van Nam, Quy Chau vui cac ho Do Quyen, Oc cho,+ Yeu to Mien Dien, An Do vui cac loai Chd Xanh, Thung, Gao.Thuc vat dac huu cua Ho Ba Be la loai True day moc tren cac vach da, loai tao do u Ho Ba Be Day la nhung loai duy nhat chi tim thay tai VQG Ba Be

Tham thuc vat rung cua VQG giCr vai tro phdng ho dau nguon cho ho Ba Be MSt rung, ho se mat kha nang dir trtr nuuc vao mua lu dong thui long ho bi nang len bui sir lang dong, va se gay nen nan lu lut hang nam, dem lai nhung hau qua nghiem trong de doa cac cong dong dan cu sinh song u vung ha luu song Nang

2.3.2.2 Dong vat

Khu he dong vat cua Ba Be cung rat da dang va phong phu bao gom ba nhom dong vat: tren can, dudi nude, biet bay Vi vay, Hoi nghi chuong trinh da dang sinh hoc quoc gia da xep hang Vudn Quoc gia Ba Be vao loai A ve da dang sinh hoc

Co the nhin nhan tinh da dang va phong phu ve giong loai qua so lieu chua day du ve he dong vat co gia tri cua Vudn nhu sau:

- Lap thu: co 65 loai thuoc 7 bo, 23 ho trong do co 22 loai duoc ghi trong sach do Viet Nam

- Lap chim: co 214 loai thuoc 17 bo, 47 ho trong do co 7 loai duoc ghi trong sach do Viet Nam

- Lap bo sat luong cu: co 46 loai thuoc 3 bo, 15 ho trong do co 15 loai duoc ghi trong sach do Viet Nam

- Lap ca: co 87 loai trong do co 11 loai duoc ghi trong sach dd Viet Nam Dac biet co nhieu loai qui hiem dang bi de doa can duoc bao ve la:

- Loai Vooc mui hech d Dong Phuc Ba Be (loai dac huu)

- Loai Phuong hoang dat, Vac hoa, Cong, Tri, Soc bay d Khang Ninh, Dong Phuc, Ba Be

-Loai Ca Anh Vu, Dam xanh, ca Lang, ca Chien d thac Dau Dang va song Nang.Nhin chung, cho den nay so lieu thu thap duoc ve khu he dong thuc vat, va cac loai cd gia tri can bao ton cua VQG Ba Be con han che, vi vay doi hoi phai day manh cac chuong trinh nghien cuu khoa hoc trong thai gian tdi

2.4 Hoat dong cua Vuon Quoc gia Ba Be

A

2.4.1 Hoat dong bao tdn thien nhien va giao due nidi truong

2.4.1.1 Cong tac quan ly bao ve rung

2.4.1.2 Cdng tac nghien cuu khoa hoc va trien khai du an

2.4.1.3 Lam sinh

2.4.2 Hoat dong du lich

Hien tai Vuon Quoc Gia Ba Be da xay dung mot chuong trinh du lich sinh thai vdi 3 loai hinh du lich: du lich truyen thong, du lich van hoa, du lich mao hiem

vdi 21 diem va tuyen tham quan gom cac quanthe canh quan, hang dongva cac ban

lang dam da ban sac dan toc cuangudi Tay, Nung, H’Mong, Dao va cac tuyen tham

quan xuyen rung nguyen sinh Tat ca cac loai hinh du lich tren da va dang hinh

thanh gan lien vdi cac tour tuyen du lich vung Dong Bac, phuc vu cho chuong trinh

du lich Quoc gia

So luong khach du lich tang len hang nam: nam 1995 chi co 1.500 khach; nam 2000 so khach da len 5500 ngudi, trong do khach quoc te chiem 17%(chu yeu

la khach Chau Au) Du khach den Ba Be thudng tap trung vao mua he, nhung ngay cuoi tuan, mua dongthudng chi co khach nudc ngoai

Co so vat chat phuc vu du lich dang duoc dau tu de thu hut khach Tuy nhien, chat luong dich vu cdn chua dap ung duocyeu cau cua du khach Vudn cung

chua co bien phap nao de phan bo luong khach rai deu quanh nam tranh su tap

trung vao mot thdi diem anh huong xau den canh quan va ddi song cua dong vat

hoang da

2 4 3 Hoa t don g k i n h te - xa h o cua dan cu r ca ta c d on g d e n ta i ng u ye n ci m g

2.4.3.1 Hoat dong phat rung lam nuong

Hoat dong phat rung lam nuongduoc danh giala pha rung nhanh nhat va tan

khoc nhat Vao khoang dau nhung nam 1980, nan di dan, du canh du cu tu cac tinh

phia Tay Bac va Cao Bang lam cho dan so cua Ba Be tang nhanh, nhat la cac khu

vucvung cao Dan so tang nhanh lam duy giam dien tich dat rung dotinh trang dot

rung lam nuong ray cua dan toc thieu so H’Mong, Dao

2.4.3.2 Hoat dong khai thac gO cui

Hien tuong dan vao khu bao ve nghiem ngat de khai thac trom go van xay ra

len lut mac du da co su quan ly chat cua can bo kiem lam Theo danh gia cua can bo

VQG, hien tuong khai thac trom go o ca vung dem va vung cam xay ra nhieu vaodau nhung nam 90, nay da giam; song hien tuong buon ban gd tai khu vuc Huyen

Ba Be co phan soi dong hon

2.4.3.3 San ban dong vat hoang da va thu hai lam san ngoai go

San ban la nguyen nhan true tiep gay suy giam tai nguyen thu cua VQG Thai ky trudc nam 1986, Ba Be la khu vuc co nhieu sung san nhat trong cac khu bao ton d nude ta vi dong bao cac dan toe d day co tap quan san ban dong vat tu lau

va co co sd san xuat sung ngay tai dia phuang Mac du ngudi dan da dugc tuyen truyen phap luat bao ve rung va ho biet rang neu san ban dong vat hoang da co the

bi truy to nhung san ban trom van xay ra

Khai thac lam san ngoai go tao mot nguon thu nhap dang ke cho ngudi dan dia phuang Lam san ngoai go dugc khai thac nhieu gom Mang, nam, Moc nhi, dugc lieu, cay lam rau, qua rung Day la nguon tai nguyen tu nhien co kha nang tai sinh nhanh ma dan dia phuang la ngudi dugc hudng lgi true tiep

2.4.3.4 Danh bat cd trong ho

Ho Ba Be la ho nude nggt tu nhien dugc hinh thanh tir lau nen rat da dang ve

loai ca, ve tru lugng ca Khai thac ca trong ho la mot nghe cua ngudi dan vung ven

ho Theo udc tinh co khoang 80% ho dan song d cac khu vuc vung thap cua xa Nam

nguon thu chinh va kha on dinh Hau nhu gia dinh nao cung co thuyen doc moc vangu cu nhu chai ludi de danh bat ca

2.5 Nhung ap luc bao ton va nhung viec can tru tien trong quan ly, bao ton

2.5.1 Muc tieu dat ra doi vdi edng tac bao ton

Muc tieu trucrc mat:

Muc tieu lau dai:

2.5.2 Cac dp luc va thach thuc ddi vdi cong tac bao tdn

Ap luc ldn nhat ddi vdi cong tac bao ton la con nhieu ho dan song ben trong

va xung quanh Vudn vdi ddi song con nhieu kho khan, trinh do nhan thuc thap nen neu so hd trong quan ly la ho san sang vi pham lam luat Trong thdi gian tdi can co bien phap giup dd ho nang cao thu nhap va trong dai han phai tim each di ddi dan

cu tir vung loi ra vung dem

2.5.3 Cac boat dong can uu tien trong edng tac bao tdn

CHUONG III: DANH GIA GIA TRI GIAI TRI VA GIA TRI PHI SU• •

DUNG VUCXN QUOC GIA BA BE

3.1 Bang hoi phdng van va cac dac diem xa hoi cua doi tuong phong van

3.1.1 Bang hoi phdng van

De tien hanh thu thap so lieu phan tich, mot bang hoi duoc tac gia thiet ke gom 3 phan (phu luc 2):

Phan 1: Thong tin ve dac diem kinh te - xa hoi cua du khach gom ho ten, do

tudi, gidi tinh, nghe nghiep, trinh do hoc van, thu nhap va tinh trang hon nhan

Phan 2: Cac thong tin lien quan den chuyen di cua du khach: Du khach boc

lo diem xuat phat, thai gian luu tru, so lan den Ba Be ke ca lan hien tai, sd ngudi di cung doan, muc dich chuyen di Nhung thong tin nay the hien muc do quan tarn cua du khach den Ba Be va cung la co sd phan chia vung xuat phat cua du khach

Thong tin thu thap duoc tir phan 1 va phan 2 la co sd xac dinh ham cau giai tri tu do xac dinh gia tri giai tri do canh quan Ba Be mang lai

Phan 3: Thong tin ve muc san sang chi tra cua du khach cho cong tac bao tdn Mot gia thuyet dat ra “mot Quy bao tdn duoc thanh lap de bao ve ve sinh thai canh quan va toan bo cac gia tri cua VQG can huy dong str dong gop cua du khach, vay du khach san sang dong gop cho Quy khong? Du khach san sang dong gop cho Quy bao nhieu trong lan tham quan nay? Du khach mong muon dong gop de luu truyen gia tri do cho the he con chau hay dong gop vi su tdn tai cua VQG?”

Thong tin thu thap dupe tir phan dupe su dung de xac dinh gia tri phi su dung cua VQG Ba Be

•*- A

3.1.2 Mau dieu tra

De tai da tien hanh dieu tra tir thang den thang 10 nam 2005 la thdi diem thudng cd nhieu du khach den tham quan nghi dudng va nghien cuu khoa hoc hang nam

De tai da thuc hien phdng van ngau nhien han 300 du khach thu dupe 209 phieu cd the sir dung de phan tich trong do cd 186 khach du lich trong nude va 23 khach du lich nude ngoai

3.1.3 Mot sd dac diem kinh te - xa hoi ciia doi tuong phong van

■> r

Bang 3.1 Dae diem kinh te - xa hoi cua du khach trong nude

binh

Trung vi

Gia tri Ion nhat

Gia tri nho nhat

Giai tinh (bang 1 neu la nam, bang

0 neu la nu)

Trinh do hoc van (theo 5 cap hoc,

bang 1 neu cd trinh do tieu hoc,

bang 5 neu co trinh do sau DH)

Chi phi cho chuyen di (ngan dong) 413,9 360 1910 60

\

Ngudn: So lieu thu thap tit dieu tra mau

3.2 Sir dung phuong phap chi phi du lich theo vung (ZTCM) danh gia

gia tri giai tri tai VQG Ba Be

3.2.1 Nhung gid thiet ca ban

1 Tren ly thuyet hanh vi ngudi tieu dung, viec mot ca nhan den VQG giai tri duoc coi la dang su dung dich vu moi trudng cu the la mong muon nhan duoc nhung gia tri do dia diem giai tri mang lai

cua ho cho viec tieu dung dich vu do tai san moi trudng mang lai Chi phi cua du khach cho chuyen di la co sd xay dung dudng cau giai tri va xac dinh gia tri giai tri mac du ham cau giai tri co the phu thuoc vao nhieu bien so khac

3 Gia tri giai tri do canh quan VQG mang lai duoc xac dinh la tong loi ich

du khach nhan duoc khi den tham VQG Ba Be

3.2.2.1 Phan vung dia diem xuat phat cua du khach

Can cu vao so lieu thu cap ve so luong khach den tham quan va vung xuat phat cua du khach nam 2004, co the phan chia lam 6 vung theo khoang each tang dan tu noi xuat phat tdi Ba Be (hinh 3.3)

- Vung 1: Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, Cao Bang.

- Vung 2: Ha Noi, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Ha Tay, Vinh Phuc, Tuyen Quang

- Vung 3: Hai Phong, Hai Duong, Nam Dinh, Thai Binh, Ninh Binh, Hoa Binh, Phu Tho, Yen Bai, Lang Son, Quang Ninh

- Vung 4: Lao Cai, Ha Giang, Lai Chau, Nghe An, Ha Tinh

- Vung 5: Quang Tri, Hue, Da Nang

- Vung 6: TP Ho Chi Minh, Dong Nai, An Giang, Kien Giang

3.2.2.2 Xac dinh ty le du khach cua moi vung (VR)

Dua tren so lieu ve lugng khach den tu moi vung do Trung tarn du lich cung cap va so lieu dieu tra dan so nam 2004 (do Tong cue thong ke cong bo), ty le du khach den tu moi vung dugc xac dinh nhu sau:

Bang 3.5: Ty le du khach theo vung xuat phat

Vung xuat phat Lugng khach/nam Dan so cua vung

Nguon: Tac gid tinh tic so lieu licang khach den Ba Be tir cac tinh

3.2.3 Xac dinh chi phi du lich

Vdi moi du khach den Ba Be, chi phi cua hg bao gdm: chi phi di lai, chi phi

an d, chi phi thdi gian va mot so khoan chi khac

3.2.3.1 Chi phi di lai

Ket qua tinh toan chi phi di lai cua du khach tung vung dua tren khoang each tir dia diem xuat phat den Ba Be dugc the hien qua bang sau:

Ngudn: Tac gid icdc tinh tic so lieu dieu tra

3.2.3.2 Chi phi thai gian

Viec xac dinh then gian du khach su dung de tai VQG can cu vao thai gian luu tru trung binh va thai gian di lai cua tung vung Vai du khach co chuyen di den nhieu dia diem (vung 4, 5, 6) thai gian di lai cua du khach duoc dieu chinh bang each tinh Vi tong thai gian di lai

Chi phi thai gian duoc tinh theo hai each: dua tren thu nhap binh quan duoc Tong cue thong ke cong bo nam 2005 va dua tren thu nhap binh quan cua doi tuong phdng van

Bang 3.8: Chi phi thai gian cua du khach

Vung Khoang each

(km)

Thai gian di lai va thai gian luu tru trung binh (ngay)

Chi phi thai gian (ngan dong)Theo TNBQ

(TCTK)

Theo TNBQ 1dieu tra

3.2.3.3 Chi phi khac

Bang 3.9: Chi phi cua du khach tai Ba Be

DVT: 1000 dOngVung Thdi gian luu

tru (ngay)

Ve vaocong

Chi phi an d Chi phi thue

Nguon: Tac gid tinh todn tren sd lieu dieu tra.

3.2.3.4 Tdng hap chi phi du lich

Tir ket qua tinh toan chi phi di lai, chi phi thdi gian va chi phi khac co thetong gop so lieu ve chi phi cua du khach d cac vung khac nhau nhu sau:

Bang 3.10: Tdng hop chi phi cua du khach theo cac vung

3.2.4 Ham cau giai tri

Gia dinh moi quan he gifra ty le du khach moi vung va chi phi du hanh cua moi vung co quan he tuydn tinh; ty le du khach mdi vung (Visitation Rate -VR) la bien phu thuoc, chi phi du lich cua mdi vung (Travel cost - TC) la bidn doc lap Mo hinh kinh te lupng mo ta moi quan he nay la:

VR; = a+ pTC; trong do a va 0 la cac he so can udc luong

Do co su chenh lech ldn ve gia tri giua bien doc lap va bien phu thuoc nen tac gia su dung ham logarit de dieu chinh su khac biet nay

Log(VR) = a + plog(TC)

Su dung phan mem kinh te luong Eview 3.1 de udc lupng bang phuong phap binh phuong nhd nhat (OLS), cho ket qua udc lupng he sd a va [3 nhu sau:

Truong hopl: Su dung thu nhap binh quan tai thanh thi (do TCTK cong bo)

de xac dinh chi phi thdi gian:

Ham quan he gitra VR va TC la : log(VR) = 6,894 - 1,40 log(TC)

Truong hop 2: Su dung thu nhap binh quan cua ddi tupng phong van de xac

Dependent Variable: LOG(VR)

Method: Least Squares

R-squared 0.861967 Mean dependent var -2.135323

Adjusted R-squared 0.827459 S.D dependent var 1.201881

S.E of regression 0.499238 Akaike info criterion 1.709734

Sum squared resid 0.996954 Schwarz criterion 1.640320

Log likelihood -3.129201 F-statistic 24.97864

Durbin-Watson stat 1.867700 Prob(F-statistic) 0.007502

dinh chi phi thdi gian:

Dependent Variable: LOG(VR)

Method: Least Squares

Sample: 1 6

Ham quan he giua VR va TC la : log(VR) = 7,5 - 1,47 log(TC).

Included observations: 6

Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 7.505435 1.883131 3.985616 0.0163

LOG(TC2) -1.474606 0.286428 -5.148262 0.0068

R-squared 0.868872 Mean dependent var -2.135323

Adjusted R-squared 0.836090 S.D dependent var 1.201881

S.E of regression 0.486591 Akaike info criterion 1.658415

Sum squared resid 0.947082 Schwarz criterion 1.589001

Log likelihood -2.975245 F-statistic 26.50461

Durbin-Watson stat 1.897270 Prob(F-statistic) 0.006753

Nhu vay, khong co su khac biet ldn giua hai mo hinh Ca hai trudng hop deu co gia tri P -value nho hon 0,05 chung to quan he giua chi phi du lich va ty le du khach cua moi vung la chat vdi do tin cay tren 95% He so tuong quan trong ca hai mo hinh xap xi 0,9 chung to bien doc lap giai thich duoc gan 90% gia tri bien phu thuoc

Trudng hop su dung muc thu nhap binh quan theo so lieu dieu tra de xac dinh chi phi thdi gian cua du khach cd gia tri R“, gia tri thong ke F va P -Value cua

mo hinh cao hon dong thdi gia tri P -Value cua timg bien cao hon chung to mo hinh

cd do tin cay cao hon va duoc chon de xay dung dudng cau giai tri

Hinh 3.4: Duong cau giai tri

Du’d’ng cdu giai tri

0,0000 0,1000 0,2000 0,3000 0,4000 0,5000 0,6000

VR

Ngudn: Tac gid xay dung tren phan mem kinh te luang Eview 3.1

Duong cau tren bieu thi moi quan he giua ty le du khach ddn tham quan Ba

Be cua moi vung va chi phi du lich cua du khach mdi vung Phin dien tich nSm durdi dudng cau bieu thi loi ich cua moi du khach nhan duoc khi ddn VQG Ba Bd duoc xac dinh nhu sau:

Ttr ham cdu giai tri log(VR) = 7,5 - 1,47 log(TC) co:VR = 0,4167 -0,00027TC Phan dien tich dudi dubng cau phan anh loi ich nhan duoc cua mdi khach la:

Bang 3.11: Loi ich giai tri cua du khach tir cac vung den Ba Be

Ngudn: Tac gid icac tinh.

Tdng loi ich du khach nhan duoc theo gia thiet la gia tri giai tri cua VQG, do vay gia tri giai tri do canh quan Ba Be mang lai nam 2004 khoang 2,373 ty ddng Gia dinh ty le du khach cua mdi vung va chi phi du lich cua du khach mdi vung khong thay doi trong nam 2005 thi loi ich do canh quan Ba Be mang lai trong nam

2005 la 2,41 ty ddng

3.3 Danh gia gia tri phi sir dung VQG Ba Be bang phuong phap CVM

3.3.1 Mo hinh danh gid

3.3.2 Thiet lap thi trud'ng gid tudng

Thuc hien danh gia gia tri phi su dung VQG Ba Bd, tac gia da tien hanh khao sat bang bang hoi doi voi khach tham quan va phong van true tiep doi vdi ngudi dan dia phuong - ngudi hudng lod true tiep tu bao ton VQG

Doi vdi khach tham quan, cac thong tin can thu thap gom:

- Thong tin ve cam nhan cua du khach ddi vdi gia tri cua VQG: Trong phan nay bang hoi cung cap them mot so thong tin ve gia tri cua VQG nhu tinh da dang sinh hoc, cac loai dac huu co nguy co tuyet chung can duoc bao ve de du khach co the hieu gia tri cua VQG va su can thiet phai bao tdn nhung gia tri hien cd

- Thong tin ve su san sang chi tra cua du khach de bao tdn VQG Ba Be: De tai dat gia dinh “mpt Quy bao tdn duffc thanh lap nham bao tdn canh quan va cac loai dong thuc vat trong VQG can den sir dong gop tien cua khach tham quan, vay ong/ba co san long bo ra mot khoan tien cho muc dich nay khong va muc chi tra co the la bao nhieu cho Ian tham quan nay?” Tiep theo, tac gia dat ra cau hoi xem xet muc dich chi tra cua du khach tir do dinh gia ddi vdi tirng loai gia tri

1 Du khach san sang tra bao nhieu nham bao tdn cac nguon lod tir VQG de the

he con chau cd the khai thac va sir dung trong tuong lai

2 Du khach san sang chi tra bao nhieu de bao tdn gia tri cua VQG chi don gian

la xuat phat tir mong muon bao tdn gia tri canh quan va noi sinh song cua cacloai dong thuc vat

3.3.3 Thu nhan thong tin ve mire san long chi tra

Trong tong sd 209 phieu duoc su dung de phan tich cd 186 phieu phong van khach trong nude, con lai 23 phieu phong van du khach nude ngoai Ket qua tham

do su san long chi tra cho Quy Bao tdn nhu sau:

Bang 3.12: Ty le du khach san sang chi tra cho bao ton

San sang chi tra Khong san sang chi tra

Du khach trong nude 87,09% (162 khach) 12,91%

•>

=——=— > \———

14,4%

Ngudn: Tac gia tinh toan tu so lieu dieu tra

Nhu vay, co khoang 85,6% du khach san sang chi tra de bao ton gia tri cua VQG, so cdn lai khong dua ra cau tra loi hoac khong dua ra muc bang ldng chi tra song theo ket qua khao sat thi hon 95% so nguoi duoc hoi mong muon giu gin gia tri cua VQG, mong muon VQG ton tai mai Ho mong muon dong gop mot phan cho bao ton nhung co the ho khong tin viec dong gop co the giai quyet dupe van de hoac ho nghT cac doi tupng khac phai lam viec nay

Mat khac, de xem xet mong muon cua du khach chi tra de bao ton cho the he tuong lai hay chi tra chi vdi muc dich don gian la de VQG noi chung va cac loai dupe ton tai, de tai da phdng van du khach ve mong muon khoan chi tra do dupe dung cho muc dich gi

Bang 3.13: Muc dich chi tra cua du khach Chi tra de the he tuong lai SD Chi tra de VQG ton tai

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Ngudn: Tac gid tinh toan tic so lieu dieu tra

Cd 82,7% khach trong nude mong muon dung khoan chi tra do de bao tdn nhung gia tri cho the he con chau tuong lai trong khi chi co 64,7% khach nude ngoai mong muon dieu nay Ket qua nay cho thay du khach trong nude co the ky vong nhieu vao viec bao tdn cdn khach nude ngoai co the ho chi den VQG mot lan nen chi dung lai d mong muon trong suy nghi cua ho thi VQG van dang tdn tai

Bang 3.14: Muc chi tra trung binh cho bao ton cua du khach

Khach trong nude Khach nude ngoai Tdng

Ngudn: Tac gid tinh toan tic sd lieu dieu tra

Ket qua cuoc dieu tra cho thay muc san long chi tra trung binh cua du khach

la 38,6 ngan dong/du khach Muc chi tra cua du khach nude ngoai khoang 3 USD cao hon muc chi tra trung binh cua khach trong nude Muc chi tra nay co the phu thuoc vao nhieu bien so xa hoi cua doi tuong duoc phong van nhu thu nhap, gidi tinh, do tuoi, trinh do hoc van Vi vay, de xem xet ket qua nay dang tin cay hay khdng can su dung mo hinh de phan tich cac yeu to tac dong den su bang long chi tra

3.3.4 Phan tich cac yeu td tac dong den sir bang long chi tra

3.3.4.1 Mo hinh kinh te licong

cua doi tuong duoc phong van duoc xac dinh nhu sau:

WTP =f(age,edu,gen,know,inco,cost)

Su dung ham logarit co:

log(WTP) = C + p X i + p2X2 + P3X3 + p4X4 + p5 logX5 +p6 logX6

Trong do: C, p^ p2 P3, P4, ps, P6 la cac he sd can udc luong

Bang 3.15: Mo ta cac bien cua mo hinh

- 1r 1

-r

X Age i Tuoi doi tuong phong van1 ’ , ', '

X2 Gen 1 G101 tinh cua doi tuong

phong van

Nhan bang 1 neu gidi tinh la nam, bang 0 neu gidi tinh la nu

1

Theo cap hoc; bang 1 neu co trinh

do tieu hoc, bang 5 neu cd trinh do sau Dai hoc

x4 Know Su hieu biet cua du khach

ve gia tri VQG Ba Be

Bang 1 neu trudc day du khach da co thong tin, bang 0 neu chua cd thong tin ve gia tri VQG

X5 Log(Inco) Logarit thu nhap i Thu nhap tinh bang ngan dong

X6 Log(Cost) Logarit chi phi i Chi phi tinh bang ngan dong

Ngudn: Tac gid quy udc cac bien cua md hinh.

Su dung phuang phap binh phuang nhd nhat cho ket qua udc lugng nhu sau:

Bang 3.16: Ket qua irdc luong

Bien phu thuoc (Dependent Variable): log(WTP)

Phuang phap: Binh phuang nhd nhat (OLS)

Adjusted R-squared 0.462767 S.D.dependent var 0.523693S.E of regression 0.383847 Akaike info criterion 0.965617

Durbin-Watson stat 1.787839 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

- - - - - - TTT

-Nguon: Tac gid udc luomg bangphan mem Eview 3.1.

Phuang trinh mo ta mdi quan he cua cac bien la:

Log(WTP) = -1,097 + 0,0073 X! + 0,101 X2 + 0,135 X3 + 0,27X4+ 0,52 logX5 - 0,04

logXs-hay: log(WTP) = -1,097 + 0,0073.Age + 0,101.Gen + 0,135.Edu + 0,27.Know +

0,52.1og(Inco) - 0,04.1og(Cost)

Mo hinh co P - value la 0,000; gia tri thong ke Durbin Watson la ,78 nen

co the ket luan moi quan he giua cac bien doc lap vdi bien phu thuoc la co y nghia

He so tuong quan cua mo hinh la R2 = 0,48 tuc bien doc lap giai thich duoc 48% bienphu thuoc

Giathiet quan trong cua OLS laphuong sai cua sai so dong deu thi mo hinh

hoi quy mdi co y nghia va su dung duoc Vi vay, de xem xet gia thiet cua phuong

phap binh phuong nhd nhatcothoa man hay khong, tac giakiem dinh cap giathiet:

H0: Phuong sai cua sai sodong deu

Hi Phuong sai cua sai so khong dong deu

Su dung kiem dinh White trong Eview 3.1 kiem dinh phuong sai sai so cua

mo hinh cho ket quakiem dinh nhu sau:

Bang 3.17: Kiem dinh phuong sai cua sai so

White Heterosked as ti ci ty Te st:

Test Equation :

Dependent Variable : RESIDA2

Variable Co e fficient St d Error t-Statistic Prob

AGEA2 -2.06E-05 0.000130 -0.157993 0.8747 AGE*GEN 0.003548 0.004303 0.824464 0.4112 AGE*EDU -0.000338 0.003166 -0.106755 0.9151 AGE*KNOW -0.000271 0.004771 -0.056758 0.9548 AGE*(LOG(INCO)) 0.001081 0.005036 0.214724 0.8303 AGE* ( L O G ( COST)) 0.001737 0.003172 0.547525 0.5849

L O G(COST) -0.280661 0.693661 -0.404608 0.6864

R-squared 0.149203 M e an dependent var 0.150581 Adj us ted R-squared -0.011932 S.D dependent var 0.219995 S.E of e gr e ssion 0.221304 Akaike info cri t erion -0.029237 Sum squared r e sid 6.464767 Schwarz cri te rion 0.474734

Dur bin-Wats on stat 1.782326 Prob(F-s tat istic) 0.569808

Nguon: Tcc gia kiem dinh bang Eview 3.1.

Voi muc y nghia 5%, tung bien doc lap khong co quan he chat voi sai so cua

mo hinh Ket qua kiem dinh White co P - value la 0,569, he so tuong quan R2 =

0,149 chung to cac bien giai thich khong co quan he chat voi nhieu cua mo hinh.Gia thiet Ho duoc chap nhan tuc phuong sai cua sai so khong thay doi, mo hinh hoiquy duoc chap nhan

3.3.4.2 P han tic h cc i c yeu o t ac d ong d en W TT

Trong 6 bien sO duoc khao sat co 5 bien co quan he ty le thuan voimuc banglong chi tra cua du khach cho bao ton gia tri cua VQG Voi muc y nghiabang 0,05,

cac bien sau co quan he chat che voi subang long chi tra:

1 Thu nhap cua doi tuong phong van co quan he ty le thuan voi muc sansang chi tra cuadu khach Khach cothu nhap cao thudng san long chi tra d muc cao

hon Gia tri P- value la 0,00 chung td quan he giua thu nhap va su bang long chi tra

la chat

2 Do tuoi cua du khach co quan he thuan voi muc san long chi tra Du khach

co do tuoi trung nien tro len thuong co muc san long chi tra cao hon Dieu nay cothe duoc giai thich la voi do tuoi do ho da co mot muc thu nhap cao, on dinh va da

co trai nghiem cuoc song nen ho quan tam den viec bao ton hon

3) Trinh do hoc van cua du khach anh huong nhieu den muc chi tra cua du

khach (P- value la 0,02) Trinh do hoc van cua du khach cang cao thi du khach cang

quan tam den bao tonthe hien quamuc san long chi tra cao hon

4) Su hieu biet von co cua du khach ve gia tri cua VQG Ba Be co quan hechat voi bang long chi tra, du khachcang conhieu thong tin ve VQG truoc vatrong

chuyen di thi cang thay duoc loi ich cua bao ton the hien muc san sang chi tra cao

Day la ket luan quan trong va no goi y rang muon lam tot cong tac bao ton thi viec

giao duc tuyen truyen nang cao nhan thuc cua cong dong la dieu rat canthiet

Trong 6 bien giai thich cua mo hinh hoi quy, bien chi tieu cua du khach khong co quan he chat voi muc san long chi tra Dukhach chi tieu nhieu hay it chochuyen di cung khong anh huong den muc san long chi tra, hay muc chi tra khong phu thuoc vao chi tieu cua du khach Ket qua nay cung chung td chi tracho bao ton

la viec dukhach cam thay can lam

3.3.5 g i a g i a tri ph i s i r dung V QG B a Be

Gia tri phi su dung cua VQG Ba Be duoc xac dinh la tong muc san long chitra de bao ton VQG cua du khach De xac dinh gia tri phi su dung, tac gia dua ramot so gia dinh sau:

1 - Muc chi tra duoc tinh chung cho khach du lich trong nuoc vakhach du

lich nuoc ngoai vi tren thuc te so luong khach nuoc ngoai so voi tong luong khachchi chiem 15%

2- Muc dich chi tra cua du khach trong nuoc va nuoc ngoai co the khacbiet nhung trong de tai nay gia dinh su khac biet do la khong dang ke khi so luong

du khach nuoc ngoai chi chiem phan nhd trong tong so du khach denBaBe

Theo phan tich tren, muc san sang chi tra trung binh cho bao ton gia tri cua

VQG Ba Be la 38,6 ngan dong/du khach Can cuvao so luong du khach den VQG

Ba Be trong nam 2004 va 2005 co the xac dinh tdng muc san long chi tra cho hoat

dong baoton cua khachdu lich nhu sau:

Bang 3.18: Tdng muc san long chi t r a cua du khach

Trong do:

Chi tra cho the he tuong lai (ngandong) 263.435

Tong muc san long chi t r a (ngan dong) 352.228,4

Ngudn: Tac gia uac tinh.

Nhu vay, tdng muc san sang chi tra nam 2005 cua du khach nham bao ton

gia tri cua VQG Ba Be vdi muc tieu la de lai nhung gia tri do cho the he tuong lai(gia tri luu truyen - BV) la 263.435.000 dong, muc san sang chi tra de dam bao cho

su ton tai lau dai (giatri ton tai) cua VQG Ba Be la 88.739.400 dong

Muc san sang chi tra trung binh cua du khach la 38,6 ngan dong/khach cao

hon so vdi mot so nghien cuud Viet Nam trudc daykhi hoi ve muc ve vao cong du

khach co the chi tra Ket qua nay cho thay du khach danh gia cao gia tri cuaBa Be

va no cung chi ra rang neu lam ro duoc muc dich chi tra thi du khach trong nudc

hoan toan co kha nang danh gia dung giatri cua tai san moi truong

3.4 Ke t l uan rut ra t i r n n ^ l i ii ^n c i ru va mot s o de xuat

3 4 1 K et luan

Qua trinh dieu tra thu thap so lieu va phan tich ketqua nghien cuu co the rut ra

motsoket luan sau:

Thunhat, Vuon Quoc gia Ba Be la mot dia diem giai tri noi tieng ngay cangthu hut su quan tam cua nhieu du khach trong va ngoai nudc.

Thu hai, gia tri giai tri co the duoc danh gia thong qua phuong phap chi phi

du lichtheo vung nhu nghien cuuda thuchien Gia tri do duoc xac dinh khoang 2,3

ty dong nam 2004, chua tinh loi ich cua du khach nudc ngoai

Thu ba, gia tri luu truyen, gia tri ton tai la bo phan cua gia tri phi su dungva

deu la gia tri vo hinh khong the hien tren thi truong song viec luong gia chung la

hoan toan co the thuc hien duoc tai VQG Ba Be khi thiet lap duoc thi truong giadinh

Thu tu, viec luong gia gia tri luu truyen va gia tri ton tai cho VQG BaBe landau tien duoc thuchien dVietNam Tuy cdn gap nhieu kho khan trong dieu trathuthap thong tin, so lieu song ket qua thu duoc cho thay gia tri nay la rat ldn, khong

the bo qua khi dinh gia gia tri tai san moi truong

Thu nam, ket qua cua qua trinh dieutra cho thay phan ldn nhung nguoi den

VQG Ba Be deu co nhung hieu biet nhat dinh ve gia tri cua Vuon, khong chi la gia

tri canh quan ma con gia tri ve da dang sinh hoc Day la motthuan loi cho cong tacbao ton va dOi hoi cong tac tuyen truyen can lam tot hon de du khach ngay canghieu them giatri cua tai san moi truong

dung la gia tri vo hinh danh cho the he tuong lai

2 Trong dieu kien hien nay, VQG Ba Be nen vua thuc hien cong tac bao tonvua phat trien du lich sinh thai VQG nen coi phat trien du lich la nguon thu cho

hoat dong bao ton dong thoi thong qua du lich de du khach va nguoi dan diaphuong hieu hon gia tri cua VQG