Vấn đề bảo đảm thực hiện các chỉ tiêu tài chính dự án đầu tư cung cấp khí của tổng công ty dầu khí việt nam trường hợp khu công nghiệp phú mỹ

Nhu cau cac san pham khi, dac biet cac san pham nang luqng chiem 90% cac san pham dau khi se tang nhanh, muc tang nay dong bien vdi muc tang GDP, tir nay den nam 2010 nguon nguyen lieu c

*

BO GIAO DUC DAO TAO

TRAN THITHUY

Van de bao dam thuc hien cac chi tieu tai chfnh du an dau tu cung cap khi cua Tong Cdng ty Dau khi Viet Nam:

Trucmg hop khu cdng nghiep Phu My

Chuyen nganh : Quan tri kinh doanh CN & XDCB Giao vien hurdng d^n: PGS.TS Ngo Thi Hoai Lam

THs- Wl Ha noi, thang 10 nam 2003

Trong qua trinh lam de tai, toi da ditoc sit giup do tan tinh ciia cac thay cd giao, ban be dong nghiep Toi xin chan thanh cam on Tien si Ngo Thi Hoai Lam (giao vien trite tiep hitdng dan), cac thay, cd giao khoa Quan tri kinh doanh Cong nghiep va Xdy ditng

co ban ciing cac ban be dong nghiep da giup do toi hoan thanh ban luan van nay !

MUC LUC

PHAN MO DAU

CHUONG 1: DAC DIEM DU AN KHI, CAC CHI TIEU TAI CHINH DU AN CUNG CAP KHI,CAC YEU TO ANH HUdNG DEN VIEC THUC HIEN CAC CHI TIEU DO Trang 1 1.1 Dir an dau tu: 1

1.1.1 Khai niem: 1

1.1.2 Phan loai dir an dau tu: 2

1.1.3 Qua trinh lap va thuc hien du an dau tu 3

1.2 Cac dac diem cua dir an cung cap khi 6

1.2.1 Tong quan qua trinh dau tu 6

1.2.2 Dac diem cua cac du an cung cap khi 19

1.3 Cac chi tieu tai chinh cua dir an 20

1.3.1 Cac chi tieu ket cua du an 21

1.3.2 Cac chi tieu van hanh ciia du an 26

1.4 Cac yeu to anh huong den cac chi tieu 27

1.4.1 Giai doan lap du an 27

1.4.2 Giai doan xay dung va trien khai du an 31

1.4.3 Giai doan van hanh va khai thac dir an 31

CHUONG 2: TINH HINH THUC HIEN CAC CHI TlfiU TAI CHINH CUNG CAP KHI CUA TdNG CONG TY DAU KHI VI$T NAM 34

2.1 Tong quan dir an cung cap khi cho khu cdng nghiep Phu My 34

2.1.1 Cac thong so chinh cua trung tarn phan phoi khi Phu My 35

2.1.2 Thi trucmg: 38

2.2 Cac chi tieu tai chinh cua dir an va tinh hinh thuc hien: 46

2.2.1 Cac chi tieu tai chinh ciia du an va tinh hinh thuc hien 46

2.2.2 Danh gia tinh hinh thuc te va cac nguyen nhan anh hudng den chi tieu 49

CHU0NG3: MOT SO GIAI PHAP NHAM DAM BAO VI$C THUC HIEN CAC CHI TlfiU TAI CHINH CAC DU AN CUNG CAP KHI CUA TONG

CONG TY DAU KHI VIET NAM 58

3.1 Nhurng yuu cau dat ra doi voi cac du an cung cap khi cua Tong Cong ty Dau khi Viet Nam 58

3.1.1 Xu huong su dung khi a cac nudc ASEAN 58

3.1.2 Nhung yeu cau dat ra doi voi viec thuc hien cac chi tiuu tai chinh 60

3.2 Cac giai ppap nhhm bao ddm viec t hie hien cac chi t ieu tai chinn 58

3.2.1 Ccc giOi phcp doi voi nguon cung cap khi 69

3.2.2 Cac giOi phcp ve thi truing tiuu thu khi 70

3.2.3 Cac gioi phap ve dom boo cung ciu 73

KET LUAN 83

Danh muc cac bang bieu

Bang 1.1 Tong dau tu vao dtr an khi Bach Ho 15

Bang 1.2 Von ddu tu vao dir an khi Nam Con Son 17

Bang 2.1 Cac ho tieu thu giai doan dau cua du an TTPPKPM 35

Bang 2.2 Cac ho co kha nang tieu thu khi trong giai doan mo rong 35

Bang 2.3 Bang du tfnh nhan su cho 1TPPKPM 35

Bang 2.4 Phuong an tra no cua du an 38

Bang 2.5 Tong hop lupng khi cho dien dam 41

Bang 2.6 Cac ho cong nghiep co nhu cau su dung khi khu vuc Phu My - My Xuan - Go DSu 42

Bang 2.7 Cac nha may va cac du an co kha nang su dung khi khac 42

Bang2.8 Du bao kha nang tieu thu khi cua cac ho khac trong nhung nam tdi43 Bang 2.9 Tiem nang sir dung khi cua cac khu cong nghiep doc tuyen Vung tau - Thu Due 43

Bang 10 Gia khi cac ho cong nghiep co the chap nhan vao 2005 46

Bang 2.11 Cac chi tieu tai chinh cua du an 47

Bang 2.12 So sanh tinh hinh thuc hien cac chi tieu tai chinh va cac so lieu tinh toan 48

Bang 3.1 Nhu cau khi cua cac ho tieu thu da cam ket ngay 29/4/99 62

Bang 3.2 Gia nhien lieu canh tranh 63

Bang 3.3 Gia thi truong khi tai mien Nam 64

Bang 3.4 Thong ke cac ho cong nghiep chu yeu co kha nang sir dung khi den nam 2010 66

Bang 3.5 Can doi cung cau khi da ky hop dong tir 2002-2006 68

Bang 3.6a Can doi cung cdu khi 2002-2006 ( phuong an 1) 76

Bang 3.6b Can doi cung cau khi 2002-2006 ( phuong an 1) 77

Bang 3.6c Can dd'i cung cau khi 2002-2006 ( phuong an 2) 78

Bang 3.6d Can doi cung cdu khi 2002-2006 ( phuong an 2) 79 Bang 3.6e Can doi cung c£u khi 2002-2006 ( phuong an 3) 80 Bang 3.6f Can doi cung cdu khi 2002-2006 ( phuorng an 3) 81

Danh muc cac hinh ve

Hinh 1.2 Scf do he thong khai thac- van chuye’n-xu ly- phan phoi khf

Hinh 1.3 Cac yeu to anh hirdng den chi tieu kinh tec cacdu an cung 33 cSp khf

Hinh 3.1 Cac phuong an khai thac khf den 2020 61

Hinh 3.2 Du bao su gia tang nhucau tieu thu khf khu vuc mien nam 65

Hinh 3.3 Anh huong NPV, IRR khi san lupng, cube van chuyPn, von 72 ddu tu thay doi

BANG CAC TIT VIET TAT

ASEAN Hiep hoi cac nuoc Dong Nam A

BCC Hop dong hop tac kinh doanh

DBSCL DOng b^ng Song Cou Long

TTPPKPM Trung tam phan phoi khi Phu My

PV (PetroV ietNam)

PVGC

Tong Cong ty Dau khi Viet NamCong ty Che bien va Kinh doanh cac San pham khiPSC Hop dong phan chia san pham

Vietsopetro

LPG

Xf nghiep lien doanh Dau khi Viet Xo

Khi hoa longCNG Khf nen (khi thien nhien)

LNG Khi thien nhien hoa long

EVN Tong cong ty Dien luc Viet Nam

PHAN MO DAU

1 Tinh cap thiet cua de tai

Viet Nam dang trong thbi ky day manh CNH-HDH dat nude Sau hon 15 nam thuc hien cong cuoc doi mod chung ta da thu dupe nhung ket qua dang kP Cac quan he kinh te quoc te ngay cang phat trien la co hoi de Viet Nam hoi nhap tot hon vao nSn kinh te the gioi nhung dong thoi cung la mot thach there ldn doi vdd chung ta Tuy nhien, la mot nude d tr'rnh do phat trien han che, vdi thu nhap binh quan hang nam tren dau ngudi con thap, giong nhu moi quoc gia dang phat trien khac, Viet nam cd ba difiu thieu: thieu von, thieu cong nghe, thieu trinh do quan ly Do do, nang cao hieu qua dau tu chinh la huy dong va phat huy, moi tiem nang ve von cua cac thanh phan kinh te trong nude, thu hut nguon von dau

tu ciia nude ngoai nham phuc vu cho su nghiep phat trien

Cung vdi ca nude, nganh cong nghiep dau khi Viet Nam cung dang cd gang het minh de dong gop cho str phat trien kinh te dat nude Hon 20 nam qua, dac biet tir khi nghi quyet 15-NQ-TU( 7-7-1998) cua Bo Chinh tri dinh hudng, nganh dau khi Viet Nam da timg budc viron len va dong gop phan quan trong phat trien nen kinh te quoc dan Tir chd hoan toan phu thuoc vao nguon cung cap tir nude ngoai, den nay Viet Nam da san xuat dupe 19 trieu tan dau tho va 2,6 ty m3 khi dong hanh Cong nghiep khi da hinh thanh va phat trifen nham khai thac

co hieu qua hon tai nguyen thien nhien cua da't nude Tuy vay, vdi dac diem la nganh cong nghiep doi hoi von dau tu ldn, cong nghe hien dai nen can co chinh sach dau tu dung dan va khoa hoc mdi mang lai hieu qua cao Nhu cau cac san pham khi, dac biet cac san pham nang luqng( chiem 90% cac san pham dau khi)

se tang nhanh, muc tang nay dong bien vdi muc tang GDP, tir nay den nam 2010 nguon nguyen lieu cua khi dong hanh va khi thien nhien chac chan se chiem mot

vi tri dang ke trong co ca'u cac san pham nang lupng tir dau khi va se xam nhap nhanh vao thi trubng ma trudc day chi sir dung cac san pham long tir dau mb.Them vao do, do nhu cau ve viec sir dung khi du bi dot bo,Tdng Cong ty Dau khi Viet Nam da tien hanh xay dung cac du an tieu thu khi du tren co sb

nhu c<u cua cac khu cdng nghiep Ngoai cac lai ich kinh te thu dirge cac du an

da gop ph<in sir dung co hieu qua han cac san pham khi kho, dam bao nguon cung ca'p nguyen nhien vat lieu dau vao cho cac ho cdng nghiep, cac nha tieu thu Bai vSy viec che bien, phan phoi kinh doanh cac san pham dau khi la nhiem

vu trong yeu cua Tdng Cdng ty Dau khi Viet Nam, Tuy nhien trong thdi gian qua, hoat dong nay dugc trien khai d muc do khiem ton, mac du da dugc lanh dao Tong Cdng ty cung nhu Nha nude quan tam tir nhung ngay dau thanh lap Doi vdi cac du an cung cap khi noi rieng, viec dam bao cac chi tieu cua du an con nhieu kho khan, do vay, viec tim kiem cac giai phap nham dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh ciia cac du an cung cap khi mang tinh cap bach ca ve ly luan va thuc tidn, gop phan nang cao hieu qua dau tu, thuc hien tot cac muc tieu ciia Tong Cdng ty Dau khi Viet Nam noi rieng va thuc hien tot Nghi quyet Dai hoi Dang toan quoc lan thu VIII “ Nham day manh Cdng nghiep hoa-Hien dai hoa dat nude Ddng thdi de nude ta timg budc hoa nhap vao cac hoat dong dau khi cua khu vuc Ddng Nam A trong xu the toan cau hoa, Tdng Cdng ty Dau khi Viet nam phai nhanh chong trd thanh tap doan cdng nghiep quan trong hoan chinh khong chi hoat dong trong nude ma timg budc phat trien ra nude ngoai” (*)

2 Muc tieu nghien ciiru

Tir trudng hap cu the cua du an cung cap khi ciia Tdng Cdng ty Dau khiViet Nam cho khu cdng nghiep Phu My, luSn van tap trung xem xet, phan tich cac yeu to anh hudng den tinh hinh thuc hien cac chi tieu ciia du an d^u tu, nham xac dinh nhung ton tai edn khSc phuc va nguyen nhan dd dua ra cac kien nghi va giai phap nham dam bao thuc hen cac chi tieu tai chinh cua du an, de cac du an cung ca'p khi cua Tdng Cdng ty Dau khi Viet Nam mang lai hieu qua cao han

3 Doi tuang va pham vi nghien curu

Doi tuang: Cac chi tieu tai chinh cua du an dau tu ( cac chi tieu van hanh)

va tinh hinh thuc hien cac chi tieu dd

Pham vi : Nghien cuu trudng hop du an trung tam phan phoi khi Phu My , dac biet tap trung vao tinh hinh thuc hidn cac chi tieu van hanh cua du an dau tu ( ddng tien thuan, doanh thu, chi phi, cac tac dong cua cac yeu to lam thay doi

cac chi tieu tai chfnh nhu NPV, IRR cua du an) nham rut ra bai hoc cho cac

du an cung cS'p khi cua Tong Cong ty Dau khf Viet Nam

4 Phuong phap nghien curu

Luan van su dung phuong phap nghien ciru phan tich danh gia tong hop true tiep, tren co so ly luan co ban va tir cac so lieu thuc te thu dupe, so sanh ket qua dat duqc vdti cac chi tieu tai chinh da dat ra trong hoat dong dau tu cua Tong Cong ty Dau khi Viet Nam, de tim ra giai phap nang cao hieu qua va dam bao cac chi tieu cua cac du an dau tu

5 Ket cau luan van

Khong ke loti md ddu, ket luan va tai lieu tham khao Luan van duoc chia lam 3 chuong

Chuong 1 : Dac diem cac du an khf, cac nhan to anh hudng den viec thuc hien cac chi tieu du an cung cS'p khf cua Tong Cong ty Dau khf Viet Nam

Chuong 2: Tinh hinh thuc hien cac chi tieu tai chfnh du an cung cap khf cua Tong Cong ty Dau khi Viet Nam ( qua trudng hop trung tarn phan phoi khf Phu My)

Chuong 3: Mot so giai phap nham dam bao thuc hien cac chi tieu tai

chfnh cua du an dau tu cung cap khf cua Tdng Cong ty dau khf Viet Nam

Luan van thac sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh du an cung cap khi cua LCLUKV N

Chirong 1

DAC DI^M CAC DU AN KHI, CAC CHI TlfiU TAI CHINH DU AN CUNG CAP KHI ,CAC

yeutoanhiiuongden vi£cthuchi£ncacchitieudo

1.1 DUAN DAU TU

1.1.1 Khai niem

La tap hop ho so tai lieu trinh bay mot each chi tiet va he thong cac hoat dong se dupe thuc hien vdi cac nguon luc va chi phi, dupe bo tri theo mot ke hoach chat che nham dat dupe nhung ket qua cu the de thuc hien nhung muc tieu kinh te - xa hoi nhat dinh

Du an dau tu cd the dupe xem xet 0 nhieu goc do khac nhau Xet ve mat hinh thurc, du an dau tu la mot tap hd so tai lieu Xet ve mat noi dung du an dau

tu la mot ban luan chiing kinh te - ky thuat va tai chinh vd viec sir dung cac nguon luc de thuc hien cac hoat dong nham dat nhung lpi ich va muc tieu nhat dinh trong tuong lai Thong thudng, noi dung cua mot du an dau tu ve mat kinh te tai chinh bao gom cac phan chu yeu sau:

Muc tieu du an : The’ hien nhung lpi ich kinh te, xa hoi du kien dat dupe

cac muc tieu du an

Cac hoat dong : La cac hoat dong edn dupe thu hien theo du kien trong du

an de tao ra cac ket qua nha't dinh Cac hoat dong nay dupe thuc hien theo mot lich trinh do cac bo phan thuc hien se tao thanh cac budc ke hoach thuc hien duan

Cac nguon nhan luc: The hien cac du kien v£ nhan luc va nguon tai chfnh can thiet de tien hanh cac hoat dong cua du an

Hieu qua cua du an : Du kien cac hieu qua kinh te dat dupe cua du an nhu : Doanh thu, tieu thu, lpi nhuSn va mile sinh loti cua du an

Luan van thgc sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi t i eu tai chinh du an cung cap khi cua TCTDKVN

1.1.2 Phan l oai di r an dau t ir :

Co nhieu each phan loai du an dau tu khac nhau, dudi day co mot so each phan loai thudng duoc su dung:

Theo quy trinh lap va thuc hien du an

Co the phan biet du an tien kha thi va du an kha thi

- Du an tien kha thi la du an xem xet moi khfa canh ky thuat, kinh te tai chinh cua du an dau tu nham danh gia de khing dinh lai co hoi dau tu va lua chon, nhung chua di vao xem xet chi tiet cac van de Doi vdi cac co hoi dau tu quy mo nho va co trien vong dem lai hieu qua ro rang ngudi ta thudng bo quaviec lap du an tien kha thi

Du an kha thi la du an trinh bay mot cach chi tiet va co he thong, tinh vungchSc hien thuc cua mot co hoi dau tu theo cac khfa canh thi trudng, ky thuat, tai chinh, to chuc quan ly va kinh te xa hoi Du an kha thi duoc nghien cUu ky luong, moi tinh toan yeu cau deu phai dat do chinh xac cao

Theo moi quan he giua cac du an :

Dua vao can cu nay ngudi ta chia du an lam 2 loai : Du an doc lap va du anloai trur nhau:

- Du an doc lap la du an khi duoc chap thuan hay loai bo khong lam anh

huong den cac du an khac

- Du an loai tru nhau la du an khi mot du an nay duoc chap thuan thi nhung

du an khac se bi loai bo Viec phan loai du an theo cach nay co y nghla

ra't ldn trong viec lua chon du an dau tu

Theo su phan cap quan ly: Trong dieu le quan ly dau tu va xay dung cac du an dau tu duoc chia thanh du an nhom A,B,C

Du an nhom A

Du an nhom B

Du an nhom C:

2

Lugn van thgc sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh d i e an cung cap khi cua ICl DKVN

1.1.3 Qua ti^ii Hh lap va thuc hien di r an dau tu

Thong thudng viec Up va thuc hien mot du an dau tu la mot qua trinh bao gom 3 giai doan, chuan bi dau tu, thuc hien dau tu va van hanh cac ket qua ddu tu

Giai dogn chuan bi dau tu:

Giai doan nay la giai doan lap va danh gia, lua chon du an dau tu Thong thudng trong giai doan nay phai thuc hien cac cong viec chu yeu sau

+ Phan tfch tinh hinh, xac dinh co hoi dau tu hay dinh hudng dau tu

+ Phan tfch co hoi dau tu va xac dinh muc tieu dau tu

+ Lap du an dau tu

+ Danh gia, tham dinh va lua chon du an dau tu

Giai doan thuc hien dau tu

Sau khi du an duoc lua chon tien hanh cac cong viec va cac hoat dong trien khai du an cho den khi co the su dung cac ket qua cua dau tu vao hoat dong kinh doanh Day la giai doan su dung von dau tu, thuc hien cac khoan chi tieu cho dau

tu Trong giai doan nay, viec thuc hien cac cong viec, cac hoat dong phai doi hoi phai tien hanh theo mot lich trinh de dam bao thuc hien dung hoac phan dau rut ngan thdi gian thuc hien dau tu theo du kien Neu thdi gian thuc hien dau tu cangkeo dai thi von se bi tf dong cang ldn va co va co the keo theo cac ton that khac

Giai doan van hanh dau tu

La giai doan dua du an vao hoat dong kinh doanh nham dat duoc cac muc tieu de ra

Noi dung cac budc cong viec cua mdi giai doan cua cac du an khong giong nhau, tuy thuoc vao linh vuc dau tu (san xua't kinh doanh hay ket cau ha tang, san xuat cong nghiep hay nong nghiep ) vao tfnh chat tai san xuat (dau tu chieu rdng hay chi£u sau), dau tu dai han hay ngan han Trong tat ca cac loai hinh hoat dong dau

tu, du an dau tu hoat dong theo chieu rong, phat trie’n san xuat cdng nghiep noi chung co noi dung phuc tap hon, kho'i luong tinh toan nhieu hon, muc do chfnh xac cua cac ke't qua nghien cuu co anh hudng ldn den su thanh bai trong hoat dong sau nay cua du an

3

Luan van thgc sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh di( an cung cap ktu cua I Cl Diev A

Cac bucrc cong viec cua giai doan hinh thanh va thuc hien mot du an ddu tusan xuSt cdng nghiep co the duoc tfnh toan minh hoa nhu sau

Cac giai doan cua chu ky dir an

Chuan bi dau tir Thuc hien dau tu

Van hanh ket qua dau tu

nghien Nghien Nghien Danh Dam thie't Thi Chay Sir Su cdng

cun ciiu cuu gia phan ke' va cdng thu va dung dung sua't

phat ti£n kha va quyet va ky lap du xay lap nghie chua cdng giam hien kha thi thi(14p dinh ket toan cdng m he't sua't cr ddn

dinh du an

ddng cdng

xay lap cdng trinh

dung sua't cao

nha't

thanh

ly

4

Hinhl.l: CAC GIAI DOAN CUA CHU KY DUAN

Luan van th ac sy <Jl KU V a n de dam bao cac chi hett tai chinh d i e an cung cap khi cua 1 Cl DKVN

Cac buOc cong viec va cac noi dung nghien cdu o cac giai doan duoc tiS'n hanh tu^n tu nhung khong biet lap ma dan xen goi dau cho nhau, bo xung cho nhau nham nang cao muc do chinh xac cua cac ket qua nghien cdu va tao thuan loic cho viec tien hanh nghien cuu o cac budc ke tiep Trong 3 giai doan tren day, giai doan chudn bi dau tu tao tien de va quyet dinh su thanh cong hay that bai o hai giai doan sau, dac biet la giai doan van hanh ket qua dau tu

1.2.1 Tong quan ve qua trinh dau tu vao cac du an cung cap khf cua Tong

cong ty Dau khf Viet nam

1.2.1.1 Dac diem qua trinh khai thac va su dung khi tai Viet nam.

La mot quoc gia dau khi con non tre, cong nghiep khf o Viet Nam moi bat dau phat trien mot so nam gan day va dang dan dan duoc hoan thien Trong dieu kien dat nuOc con nhieu kho khan do dang o thdi ky dau cua giai doan qua do len Chu nghia Xa hoi, viec dau tu cho cong nghiep khf cung gap nhieu kho khan ma nha't la thieu von Chfnh vi vay, cong nghiep khf cua Viet Nam cung mang nhung dac diem khac vOi cac quoc gia dau khf lau ddi khac tren the giOi He thong khai thac - van chuyen- xu ly- phan phoi khf cua Viet Nam mang nhung net dac trung rieng Hien nay he thong nay bao gom hai luong chfnh la: luong khai thac khf dong hanh va luong khai thac khf thien nhien Luong khai thac khf thien nhien da

va dang tien hanh dau tu de’ khai thac tai mo Lan Tay, Lan Do, va do cac nha thau nuOc ngoai chiem chu yeu Khf thien nhien duoc van chuyen vao bd qua he thong dudng ong vao tram xu ly roi chuyen qua trung tam phan phoi de tOi cac

ho tieu thu Luong khai thac khf dong hanh duoc khai thac tai mo Bach ho Th ngoai mo khf duoc van chuyen vao bd qua he thong dan khf vao bd, mot phan duoc van chuyen tOi nha may Dinh Cd' de hoa long roi cung duoc chuyen qua trung tam phan pho'i de phan phoi tOi cac ho tieu thu Luong khai thac khf nay chu yeu la Viet Nam thong qua lien doanh dau khf Vietsopetro, chi co mot phan nho thuoc nha thau nuOc ngoai thong qua cac PSC Dac diem khac vOi cac nudc khac la ca 2 luong khai thac khf nay duoc thuc hien thong qua nhieu nha ddu tu

6

Luan van thac sy Qi KD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh du an cung cap khi cua i Cl DKV /V

dudi cac hinh thuc khac nhau Tai cac mo khf thien nhien chu yeu la cac nha d£u

tu nudc ngoai hoat dong thong qua cac PSC con cac mo khf dong hanh lai chu yeu la do Viet Nam khai thac He thong dudng ong duoc xay dung thong qua hinh thuc BOT (xay dung- kinh doanh- chuyen giao) Khf duoc van chuyen vao

bd duoc xu ly tai cac tram xU ly duoc xay dung theo hinh thuc lien doanh Petro Vietnam tham gia vao hau het cac giai doan thong qua cac hinh thuc tren va thuc hien doc quyen phan phoi khf tdi cac ho tieu thu khf va cac nha may cong nghiep su dung khf

Hinhl.2- He thong khai thac- van chuyen - xu ly va phan phoi khi cua Viet nam

1.2.1.2 Sc luc e t h i tr ueng tiH u t hu kh i c V i e t nam

Tai Viet Nam, khf la mot loai nhien nguyen lieu mdi con duoc tieu thu vdi

ty le nho so vdi cac nguyen nhien lieu truyen thong khac nhu than, cui, dau ve khf tho phuc vu cong nghiep va condensate hien nay chi co PetroVietnam la nha cung cap duy nhat tren thi trudng tieu thu Ben canh do con co mot so san pham khac dang duoc tieu thu vdi nhu cdu ngay cang cao do la LPG (khf hoa long) Khf kho la khf tach ra tu khf dong hanh hoac khf tu nhien de dua vao vao phuc

vu qua trinh san xua't cua mot so nganh cong nghiep nhu : dien, dam, thuy tinh, tuy vay o Viet Nam hien nay mdi chi co nganh cong nghiep dien la co mot so doanh nghiep su dung nguon nang luong nay Do la nha may dien Phu My 1, Phu

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My 2, va nha may dien Ba Ria - Vung Tau Luong khi tieu thu vi vay con rat thap va khong tieu thu het luong khf khai thac duoc hang nam

Ve san pham san xua't th khi hoa long la LPG hien nay tuy nhu cau da cao hon ra't nhieu nhung tren thi trudng cung van cao hon cau rat nhieu LPG dung lam cha't dot cho cong nghiep, dan dung, thay the cho than, cui, dau LPG duoc cung cap tren thi trudng hien nay duoc che bien hdn hop giua 2 loai khf hoa long Propan va Butan Tuy thuoc vao thng loai san pham do cac cong ty khac nhau san xuat ma ty le nay co the’ khac nhau nhung theo cac nha chuyen mon thi cong nang cua cac loai LPG la nhu nhau Day la loai san pham ma hien nay tren thi trudng Viet Nam co tdi 20 cong ty cung tham gia cung cap, day la dieu kho khan cho tat ca cac doanh nghiep tham gia cung cap LPG tren thi trudng Viet nam.PetroVietnam da tien hanh cung cap gas cho cac cong ty Saigon Petro, Petrolimex va ban ra thi trudng thong qua mot so' lien doanh ma Petro Vietnam tham gia nhu : ELF gas, Vietgas Viec co nhieu hang cung tham gia tren thi trudng thuc day PetroVietnam phai co chien luoc kinh doanh va dau tu phu hop mdi co the dem lai hieu qua cao va phat trie’n ldn manh Co the chia cac khu vuc cua thi trudng tieu thu khf nhu sau

Thi trudng mien Nam

Day la mot thi trudng rat ldn ve nang luong nhung lai co rat ft nguOn nang luong khac tai chd (than, thuy dien ), co nhieu khu cong nghiep tap trung, kha nang tieu thu khf, gan cac khu vuc co tiem nang cung cap khf ldn Boi vay, khu vuc mien Nam la mot thi trudng ldn cua cac du an cung cap khf va khf cua cac nguon cung cap 0 khu vuc nay co gia tri su dung cao, co tiem nang xua't khau Co the phan chia thi trudng tieu thu khf cua khu vuc thanh cac nhom ho tieu thu cong nghiep nhu sau

1 Cac nha may dien

Hien nay tren the' gidi viec su dung khf cho phat dien ra't pho bien, 0 cac nudc co nguon khf thien nhien doi dao, khf duoc su dung cho phat dien chiem ty

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le rat cao, khoang 70-80% san luong khi khai thac duoc, viec su dung khf de phat dien co cac uu viet nhu sau:

- It gay o nhiem moi trudng

- Chi phf dau tu cho cong nghiep su dung khf thap

- Hieu suat nhiet cao

- Thdi gian xay dung ngdn

- Dien tfch xay nha may nho

- Gia thanh lkwh dien su dung khf thap hon so vdi cac loai nhien lieu khac.d nudc ta cac loai nhien lieu dang duoc su dung chu yeu cho cac nha may dien

va cac khu cong nghiep hien nay la dau FO, DO, than Viec su dung khf cho phat dien tuy da tang nhanh trong may nam qua, nhung van dat mot ty le khiem td'n Vdi su phat hien ra cac nguon khf co tru luong va tiem nang khf duoc danh gia la kha doi dao tai vung bien phfa nam Viet Nam, cung vdi hoat dong tfch cuc cua Petrovietnam nham nhanh chong khai thac nguon tai nguyen quy gia nay, dua vao bd thuc hien cong cuoc hien dai hoa dat nudc se khuyen khfch viec chuyen doi sang su dung nhien lieu khf cua cac nha may dien hien co va dau tu xay dung mdi tai cac khu kinh te” trong diem : Vung Tau- Dong Nai - Thanh pho Ho Chf Minh

Ve co ca”u san xua”t dien nang, trong nhung nam qua, thuy dien luon chiem

ty trong tren 70% san luong dien toan quoc De'n nam 2005, du kien cong suat nguon dien nudc ta se tang gap doi va dat khoang 13.000-14.000MW, trong do trudc bin khf vao khoang 5.000-5600 MW (chiem khoang 35-39% tOng cong sua”t), luong khf kho cho san xua't dien nang se dat khoang 4.380-5.144 tym3 khf/ nam Trong ke” hoach phat trien dien de'n nam 2020, Tong Cong ty Dien luc Viet Nam dat ke' hoach su dung 15-17 ty m3 khf /nam cho san xuat dien nang de dat khoang 31,2 - 42.9% tong cong sua't dien ca nudc

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2 Vat lieu xay ditng, cdng nghiep.

Khu vuc Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh va mien Dong Nam Bo la mot viing kinh

te trong diem cua mien Nam va cua ca nudc Tren khu vuc nay da co 33 khu cdng nghiep, chiem hon 50% tong so cac khu cong nghiep tren ca nudc Nam ngoai cac khu cong nghiep tren khu vuc nay cd rat nhieu cac khu cong nghiep tren khu vuc nay con cd nhieu doanh nghiep su dung cac loai nhien lieu khac nhau nhu : LPG, FO, cui than, va chu yeu tap trung vao cac nganh nghe nhu; san xuat gach xay dung, gom str, gach men, mia dudng

Qua khao sat va didu tra thi trudng tieu thu khi thap ap doc theo hanh lang tuyen ong cho thay cd rat nhieu nganh cdng nghiep su dung khi tap trung vao cac khu cdng nghiep Phu My- Bien Hoa- Thu Due nhu

- Khu vuc Phu My - Long Thanh gom Phu My 1,2: My Xuan A, Bl, B2: Go Ddu, Nhon Trach, An Keo

- Khu vuc Bien Hoa- Ddng Nai gom An Phudc 1, 2: Doc 47; Bien hoa 1,2: Amata Lebeco

- Khu vuc Thu Ddc - Thanh pho' Ho Chi Minh gom Cat Lai, Binh Chieu, Linh Trung, Linmuan, Tam Binh, Nha Be

Cac khu cdng nghiep noi tren cd uu diem tap trung, thuan tien cho viec cung cap khi, tuy nhu cdu khi cua timg ho cdng nghiep khong cao, nhung tong nhu cau cho

ca khu cdng nghiep tuong doi ldn Hon nua day la thi trudng tieu thu khi cd tinh

on dinh cao

a Khu cdng nghiep Phu My - My Xuan - Go Ddu

Theo so' lieu dieu tra thi trudng cac ho cdng nghiep cd kha nang tieu thu khi d cac khu vuc Phu My- My Xuan- Go Dau, tdng nhu cau tieu thu khi cua khu vuc nay vao khoang 2,2- 2,5 trieu m3 khi/ ngay, trong dd luong khi cd the tieu thu dupe trong nam 2002 len khoang 1,5 trieu m3/ ngay Ngoai ra con cd cac nha may va cac du an khac cd kha nang su dung khi nhu: Nippon (My xuan), LGVinaChem (Go DSu)

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b Khu vuc Bien Hoa- Thu Dur- Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh

Khu cong nghiep Bien Hoa vdi vi tri thuan loi la nam gan khu kinh te trong diem phia nam (cach Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh 30 km ve phia Bac) nen ty le mat do phat trien cac khu cOng nghiep rat cao Qua khao sat danh gia nhu cau tieu thu khi tai cac khu cong nghiep Thu Duc- Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh, Dong Nai, Binh Duong doc truc tuyen ong dan khf se phat trien len Thu DUc, thi tiem nang su dung khf kho khoang 320 trieu m3/ nam

c Kha nang su dung khf cua cac doanh nghiep ngoai cac khu cong nghiep

Tai Dong Nai va Binh Duong, ngoai cac khu cong nghiep con co nhieu cac doanh nghiep dang su dung mot luong ldn cac nhien lieu: cui, dau FO, DO, de san xuat gom, su, gach,

- Tai khu vuc Dong Nai

Thi trudng tieu thu CNG trong giao thong van tai duoc xap sep theo 5 loai

do'i tuong chuyen doi su dung CNG, sap xep theo thU tu uu tien nhu sau

- Cac doan xe taxi trong thanh pho Vung Tau, Ho Chf Minh, Bien Hoa su dung dong co xang

- Cac doi xe cua mot so cong ty dau khf tren dia ban Vung Tau

- Mot so' ho cong nghiep tren dia ban thanh pho' Vung Tau, Ho Chf Minh, Bien

- Xe van tai va xe bus trong thanh pho', lien tinh su dung dong co diezel

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- Doi tau thuyen dich vu dau khi cua PTSC, VSP va tau thuyen danh ca o Ba Ria- Vung Tau

Trong giai doan dau tap trung khai thac va phat trien 4 doi tuong ban dau, trong giai doan tiep theo PVGC se phoi hop vdi cac doi tac nudc ngoai nghien cuu phat trien doi tuong thd 5

4 L tn h v ice cho dan c it tap tr ung.

Viec su dung khf cho cac khu dan cu tap trung la dia ban duoc tien hanh khao sat Khu vuc nay duoc cung cap th nguon mang phan pho'i khf chfnh Phu

My - Thu Ddc

Thi trudng mien Bdc va mien Trung

Viec phat trien thi trudng tai cac khu vuc nay co nhung kho khan dac biet.Linh vuc phat dien von duoc coi la thi trudng quan trong nha't doi vdi su dung khf, o day lai la thi trudng tuyen thong cua than va thuy dien la nhung tai nguyen san co tai chd, lai co lien he chat che vdi cac va'n de kinh te xa hoi ldn khac (viec phat trien thuy dien thudng duoc gan vdi cac muc tieu thuy loi, viec phat trien nhiet than con ra't quan trong doi vdi mot luc luong lao dong dong dao) Nhu vay, do'i vdi thi trudng mien Bac va mien Trung khf phai canh tranh vdi cac nhien lieu khac nen gia tri su dung tha'p va kha nang tieu thu khf cung thap Hon nua tru luong khf sach cua khu vuc nay nho, ph£n ldn khf nhiem nang CO2 nen gia thanh cung cap cao Nhin chung, thi trudng duoc danh gia la han che' Tuy nhien, cac tai nguyen nhu than va thuy nang duoc danh gia la huu han, va viec su dung muc dfch phat dien co nhung yeu die’m dang ke’ so vdi khf Do do tuy kha nang canh tranh cua khf trong giai doan trudc mat co the han che' vi nhung ly do khac nhau khong chi don thu£n la kinh te'- ky thuat, nhung ve lau dai, viec phat trien thi trudng nhien lieu khf lai la mot tat yeu de’ phat trien mot sd' nganh nhu:

- Lam nguyen lieu san xua't phan dam, hoa cha't

- Lam nhien lieu cho ^^c ho cong nghiep co nhu cdu lcni ve nang luong(ximang, vat lieu xay dungi luyen kim , go'm str, ), cac khu cOng nghiep taptrung, cac trung tam thuong mai, dan cu

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1.2.1.3 Kha nang cung cap khi

Dir an khi dong hanh Bach Ho

Tai mo Bach Ho, mac du cd luong khf dong hanh ra't ldn ( khoang 15-20 ty m3) xong chua cd kinh phi va dieu kien ky thuat nen chung ta mdi chi tien hanh khai thac dau va phai dot bo hoan toan luong khi thoat ra theo dau hang nam vao khoang hon 1 ty m3 Den dau nhung nam 90, dieu nay da trd thanh dong luc thuc day Chinh Phu, PetroVietnam va nhieu nha dau tu khac tien hanh nghien cuu de’ dau tu khai thac luong khi nay Cho den nay, chung ta da dau tu phat trien khi Bach Ho thong qua mot du an duy nhat la du an khi Bach Ho Chinh vi vay, nghien cuu qua trinh dau tu phat trien khi dong hanh thuc chat la tim hidu qua trinh dau tu xay dung du an khi Bach Ho

Du an khi Bach Ho la du an khi do Xi nghiep Lien doanh VietsovPetro tien hanh dua vao nguon khi dong hanh co duoc tir mo Bach Ho va cac ho tieu thu chu yeu duoc nghi tdi la nha may Ba Ria, Thu Dire va nha may LPG Ban diiu du an dupe thiet ke tong the vdi cac cong trinh chinh bao gom:

- Gian nen khi ngoai bien ket hop ca hai muc dich phuc vu khai thac dau va v&n chuyen khi vao bd co ap sua't nen la 125 bar Gian nay co nhiem vu xu ly khi d^u vao dat cac thong so nhu thiet ke, phong thoi kiem tra va lam sachdudng ong, bom tron lan vao khi cac cha't chong an mon dudng ong

- Ducmg ong khi ngoai bien 16 inch vdi chieu dai 107 km dupe chon dudi day bien Nha may LPG tai Dinh Co' va he thd'ng kho cang xua't Tram Dinh Co cd nhiem vu xu ly khi so bo va sau do khi dupe van chuydn tdi cac ho tieu thu

- Dudng d'ng khi tren bd 17 inch ldn tdi Thu Dire cd chieu dai 17km dupe chondudi da't

- Tram phan pho'i khi Ba Ria co chiic nang dieu chinh ap sua't, sa'y khi, loc khi, dom dem luu luong, khoi luong va cac thong so' khac cua khi ca'p cho cac nha may dien mot each deu dan va dung thong sd' ky thuat

- Tram dieu hanh Vung Tau bao gom mot he thong may tinh duoc no'i mang vdi he thd'ng dieu khien cua cac tram Tram nay cd nhiem vu theo doi, bao

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quat moi hoat dong cua he thong va co the can thiep true tiep vao van hanh khi can thiet

Cong sua't ban ddu la 1 ty m3 vdi tong von dau tu du kien la gan 400 trieu

do la My Tuy nhien, trong qua trinh khai thac he thong ngay cang dupe hoan thien va hien nay da nang duoc cong suat len 4 trieu m3 khf mot ngay

Th thang 4/1995 dong khf dau tien da cung cap 'cho nha may dien Ba Ria qua he thong ngoai bien va cac tram cap khf tren bd do Huyndai va PetroVietnam l^p dat Dudng ong tren bd da dupc dat len den Phu My cung mot so thiet bi xu

ly bo sung ngoai bien va tren bd do cac don vi cua Tong Cong ty Dau khf Viet Nam, Bo Xay Dung thuc hien theo cac tieu chuan quoc te cho phep nang cong suat cap khf len den 2 trieu m3 khf / ngay vao cuo'i nam 1997 vdi tri gia 55 trieu USD

Ban dau chi co khf d mo Bach Ho dupc thu gom va dua vao bd nhung sau

do Vietsovpetro da dau tu 27 trieu USD de lap he thong thu gom khf th cac gian khac nhau ngoai mo nham nang cong sua't len 4 trieu m3 khf / ngay Sau mot thdi gian hoat dong do ap sua't khf giam nen da phai dau tu lap dat gian nen khf vdi tri gia 128 trieu USD hoan thanh vao cuo'i nam 1997

Nha may xu ly tach khf kho vao phat dien, thu hoi condensate va san xuat LPG dupc hoan thanh vao nam 1998 vdi san lupng 500m3 condensate/ngay va

380 m3 LPG/ ngay Kho cang chua va xuat LPG tri gia 74 trieu USD da dupc hoan thanh Tien tdi PetroVietnam co ke hoach dau tu nang cong suat len 4 trieu m3 khf/ngay

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Viet Nam Bang 1.1 : Tong dau tu vao dir an khi Bach Ho cua Tong Cong ty Dau Khi

Thin gian su dung trong nam (thang)

Gia tri cong trinh(USD)

1 He thong thu gom va xu ly khf Bach Ho va Cl8 12 12.497.344

2 Dudng d'ng tit mo Bach Ho tdi nha may LPG 12 50.470.000

3 He thong dua nhanh khf vao bd

(FAST TRACT II)

12 10.748.437

7 Bon san phSm long va thiet bi na8p, may bom 8 521.000

III He thong tir Dinh Cd- Ba Ria-Phu My 50.744.294

Nguon: Tong cong ty Dau khi Viet nam

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Du an khi khi thien nhien Nam Con Son

Khf thien nhien Viet Nam duoc bat dau vao nam 1981 khi mo khf Tien Hai vdi tru lupng hon 1,5 ty m3 duoc dua vao khai thac Day la mo khf duoc cac ky su Viet Nam tu luc thiet ke' va phat trien San lupng khai thac hang nam rS't nhd, von dau tu phat trien mo cung khong ldn lam Tuy vay, day la budc khdi dau de Petro Viet nam cd the phat trie’n mot nganh cdng nghiep khf thuc thu ve sau.That vay, khf thien nhien Viet nam duoc danh gia la cd tiem nang Idn sau khi phat hien hai mo khf Lan Tay va Lan Do tai be Nam Con Son Hien nay khf thien nhien chua duoc khai thac nhung Petro Vietnam dang va da tien hanh dau tu xay dung co so ha tdng de chuan bi cho khai thac Ket hop vdi BP Amoco, Statoil dudi hinh thuc hop ddng hop tac kinh doanh BCC, Trong dd phfa Viet Nam tham gia vof ty le cao nhat, tuy phfa Viet Nam tham gia vdi ty le ldn nhat nhung nguon von cung phai vay tir nhieu noi dudi su bao lanh cua Chinh phu va Tdng Cdng ty Ddu khf Viet nam Neu trudc day hau nhu khong cd nguon von tu cd de dau tu hoac neu cd thi cung rat ft, thi vdi 30 trieu USD von tu cd la ca co gang ldn cua toan nganh Tdng von ddu tu cho du an la 487 trieu USD, day la dudng ong van chuye’n va thu gom khf tir nhung didm khai thac tiem nang ngoai khoi dua vao dat lien va xir ly tai tram xir ly tren bd Dudng ong 2 pha ngoai khoi va tren bd dai khoang 400 km van chuyen khf tdi mot tram tiep nhan va xir ly gian don tai Dinh Cd Khi nhan duoc se dupc tach thanh cac ddng khf va chat long trudc khi van chuyen tiep tdi trung tam phan phoi khf Phu My

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Bang 1.2: Von dau tu cho du an khf NCS

STT Cac ben tham

gia

Nguon von Von dau tu

(trieu USD)

Ty le tham gia(%)

1 PetroVietnam + Von dau tu phat

trien cua nha nudc

30

2 BP Amoco + Trfch th loi nhuan 166.9 33.6

Nguon : To ’ ng cong ty Dau khi Viet nam

Quy mo du an bao gom:

Mot he thong dudng ong 2 pha 26 inch, ngoai khoi va tren bd di th mo Lan Tay den Dinh Co, qua diem tiep bd tai Long Hai, ap suat thiet ke la 160 bar.Cong sua't toi da cua dudng ong la 18,4 trieu m3/ngay va du kien co the ldn hon khi biet cha't luong khf va diem no'i dudng o'ng cua cac chu khf mdi

Mot dudng o'ng mot pha 30 inch tren bd de cung cap lai khf da duoc xu ly di

th Dinh Co' den trung tam phan phoi khf Phu My vdi cong suat 18.4 trieum3/ngay

- Ban d£u tram xu ly duoc thiet ke vdi mot day chuyen xu ly don chuyen dung

de xu ly cua lo 06.1 vdi cong sua't 10,48 trieu m3 khf/ngay Trong tuong lai tram tiep nhan xu ly se duoc mo rong khi co them chu khf ky ke't cac hop dong van chuyen mdi hoac co phuong an khac la tach cac chat long va xua't khf den cac ho tieu thu o xa

- He tho'ng be chua condensate

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- Xuat san phdm condensate bang tau hoac cac trang thiet bi chuyen dung d

• Phu My

Day la mot co so ha tang trong yeu giup cho su phat trien manh me cua cac du an thuong nguon va ha nguon trong moi quan he huu co hop thanh nganh cong nghiep khf thuc su tai Viet Nam

Chirong trinh khf Tay Nam

Ngay tir nhung nam 70, vinh Thai Lan da dupe biet den nhu mot vung co trien vong dau khf, dac biet la khf Tai cac vung bien rieng cua minh cung nhu cac vung giap ranh giua cac nude Malayxia va Thai Lan deu da tim thdy cac nguon khi co tru lupng dang tin cSy

Tai cac IP thuoc Viet Nam mdi giao thdu trong nhung nam 90, Gan day Fina va Unocal da khoan tham do va khai thac va da co cac phat hien ve daukhf dac biet la khf

Vung Ddng bang Song Cuu Long von la mot vung nong nghiep vdi nen kinh te va cac co so ha tang con kern phat trie’n, van de hien nay la lam sao phat trie’n thi trudng khf nhu mot yeu to' quyet dinh thuc day su phat trien ddng bo toan day chuyen, ma trong dd cac khau tir thuong nguon den trung nguon va ha nguon (cac ho tieu thu, dac biet la cac nha may dien) lien he vdi nhau mot each het sire chat che va tuong tac vdi nhau manh me, trong khi tat

ca con trong giai dan so khai

Mot quy hoach tdng thd dupc Tdng Cdng ty Ddu khf Viet Nam nghien cuu

va di den khuyen nghi manh me vd su can thiet phai chu trong xSy dung DBSCL thanh mot trung tam phat dien manh me vdi tdng cong suat tang dan til khoang 1.200- 1.300MW trong giai doan 2003-2005, len dan thanh 3.00- 3.500 MW xung quanh 2010 Cung trong khuon kho quy hoach tdng the dd, dudng ong khf ddu tien dai tdi 500 km dang dupc tfch cue thuc hien lam co so

de quyet dinh viec su dung nguon khf cd gia thanh thap, hoac la cho muc dfch phat dien tai cac nha may Tra noc, Omon, hoac cho to hop dien dam Ca Mau, dudng ong nay se dupc hoan tat vao khoang nam 2003-2005

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1.2.2 DAc diem cua cac du an cung cap khi

a Dinh nghia day chuyen khi:

Do dac diem tu nhien cua minh, cong nghiep khi gom cac khau nhu mat xich, tuong tac chat che thanh mot day chuyen khep kin tu thuong nguon den ha nguon, dau duoi phu thuoc lan nhau Chudi cac hat dong do bao gom

Tim kiem- Thdm do- Phat trien - khai thac- Xu ly - van chuyen- tang tru- che bien - phan phoi - tieu thu.

Doi vdi dau : Cac khau hoan toan co the tach rdi, hoat dong mot each tuong do'ibiet lap it anh hudng ldn qua lai lan nhau

Doi vdi khi:

+ Khong the cd khau no ma khong cd khau kia

+ “ Sue khoe” cua toan bo day chuyen phu thuoc vao sue khoe cua khau yeu nhat+ De khdi dong dupe he thong phai dau tu va khdi dong dong loat tat ca cac khau

b Dac diem cua cac du an cung cap khi. Day la mot khau nam trong linh vuc

ha nguon cua mot day chuyen khi, VI dau tu vao bat ky mot giai doan nao trong day chuyen khi deu phai mang tinh dong bo nen cac du an khi mang nhung dac diem sau day

- La cac du an sir dung von dau tu ldn, cong nghe va thiet bi hien dai mang tinhchuyen mon cao

- Cac trang thiet bi dung trong ca day chuyen thudng la cac thiet bi dac chung, doi hoi thdi gian dat hang rat dai vi vay trong qua trinh phe duyet cac de an

hang va xay lap

- Cac du an khi thudng mang lai lpi nhuan cao nhung tiem an ra't nhieu rui ro Trong khau tim kiem tham do thi rui ro ve tru lupng, dia chat, trong khau che bien thi rui ro ve chat lupng san pham, gia tri thuong mai cua khi, trong khau tieu thu rui ro ve dudng ong trong qua ttrinh van chuyen den cac ho tieu thu, rui ro ve gia khi

Luan van thac sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh die an cung cap khi cua TCI DKVN

- d Viet Nam viec su dung khf dot mdi duoc bat dau tir bien dua vao tir thang

nghiem thuc te chung ta mdi chi duoc nhung budc ddu tien cua cua viec xay dung nen mong cho mot nganh cong nghiep khi hoan chinh

Nhung danh gia mdi day cho tha'y nude ta cd tiem nang ldn ve khi dot, song viec khai thac va sir dung khi dot phu thuoc vao nhieu khau cong nghiep tir tham do, khai thac, van chuyen den ho tieu thu, vi khac vdi dau tho, viec tangtru tarn thdi mot luong khi ldn la phi kinh te: dieu nay doi hoi phai cd su phoihop chat che tren co so cac hop dong kinh te giua cac nganh cdng nghiep cd lien quan Chung ta chua cd thdi quen do nen viec trien khai sir dung khi conrat kho khan

Qua trinh cung cap mot luong khi nao do den cac ho tieu thu san pham deu chua dung mot nguy co chay no cao va gay d nhiem mdi trudng Vi vay cdng tac an toan va bao ve mdi trudng phai dupe dac biet coi trong

- Gia thanh cung cap khi phu thuoc nhieu vao gia cua cac nhien lieu canh tranh khac

Tren phuong dien danh gia dir an cung cap khi noi chung tren the' gidi va cac du an cung ca'p khi tai Viet Nam noi rieng ngoai cac tieu chi ve cac phuong

an ky thuat, du bao ve mat thi trudng Ve mat kinh te', cac tieu chi chu ye'u dupe

du tinh va danh gia nhu: Gia tri hien tai (NPV), ty suat lpi nhuan (IRR), thdi gian hoan von (Payback period) Cac ke't qua tinh toan va phan tich kinh te' do la nhung co so de’ di de'n ke't luan ve tinh kha thi kinh te cua du an, muc do hieu qua cung nhu rui ro cua du an Cd the chia cac chi tieu tai chinh ciia cac du an cung cap khi thanh 2 nhom chi tieu nhu sau

Luan van thac ey Q ' l KU Van de dam bao cac chi neu tai chinh du an cung cap khi cua 1 L! UKVb

o cac nam duoc chiet khau ve nam 0 theo ti suat chiet kha'u da dinh (itt)

Cdng ihuc ifnh ioCn chi iieu NPV:

Gia tri hien tai thuan duoc tfnh theo cdng thuc:

(l + i«)n

Trong do:

Nt: Thu hoi gop tai nam t Doi vdi cac du an khf thudng la san luong khf (Condensate, LPG, CNG ) hang nam nhan vdi gia cua chung Trong cac du an khf, san luong san pham cung nhu gia cua chung thudng thay doi theo thdi gian San luong khf (tru khf dong hanh), do dac dac thu phai gan vdi cac ho tieu thu nhat dinh nen co kha nang tang dan trong mot so' nam dau sau do on dinh trong thdi gian tuong doi dai va sau do giam do tru luong khai thac giam Gia cua cac san pham khf phu thuoc vao gia thi trudng the gidi

It: Chi phf tai nam t: Doi vdi cac du an khf chi phi do chinh la cac khoan chi: Chi phf ddu tu, chi phf van hanh, cac khoan thue phai hop (phan thu cua chfnh phu)

NPV: Gia tri hien tai thuan tai thdi diem nam t

n :So nam hoat dong hoac sd' nam trong thdi ky phan tfch

itt :Muc lai suat chiet kha'u Do' vdi cac du an ty le chiet kha'u duoc tfnh dua tren co so: Mdi trudng kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep (nguon von, co hoi dau

21

Luan van thac sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi t eu tai chinh du an cung cap khi cua TCTDKVN

tu, rui ro ), tinh trang cu the cua doanh nghiep, muc tieu kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep

Dn: Gia tri con lai vao cuoi ky hay chi phi don dep (Abandoment cost)

Y Nghia cua phuong phap tinh hien tai thuan (NPV)

- NPV > 0 khi do du an mdi duoc xem xet, danh gia

- Gia tri NPV cua du an cho ta tha'y chung ta thu loi duoc bao nhieu, khi dau tu vao du an, chu" khong gui tien vao ngan hang, hoac dau tu vao cac du an khac (tuy thuoc vao cach ta lua chon he so chiet khau la lai suat ngan hang, hay

ty le sinh loi cua du an thay the)

b T T suda l oi nh u a n (I RR- I n neenal Ra te of Re turn ) :

Khai niem :

Chi tieu danh gia nay duoc goi dudi nhieu ten khac nhau bang tieng viet nhu: Lai suat noi tai, suat thu hoi noi bo, ty suat hoan von noi bo .Thuc chat cua phuong phap nay la dung chi tieu ty suat hoan von noi bo lam thudc do hieu qua trong viec phan tfch hieu qua cua du an

Ty suat loi nhuan (IRR) la ty suat chiet khau ma ung vdi no gia tri hien tai thuan (NPV) bang 0, duoc bieu hien qua cong thuc sau:

Cong thdc tinh IRR:

De tfnh chi tieu IRR ngudi ta dung phuong phap noi suy, tuc la xac dinh mot gia tri gan dung giua hai gia tri da chon

IRR = ij + (i2 - ij) NPVj )

NPVIiX~ N PVIi2:

Luan van thac sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh d i t an cung cap khi cua TCTDKVN

Trong do:

ijiTy sua't chiet kha'u tha'p hon NPVCi)>0

i2:Ty suat chiet kha'u cao hon NPV (i2)<0

NPV(ij): Gia tri hien tai rong umg vdi ib co gfa tri duong va gan vdi 0NPV(i2> :Gia tri hien tai rong ung vdi i2 , co gia tri am va gan vdi 0

Do'i vdi cac du an noi chung va cac du an khf noi rieng, ngudi ta can phai chon i15 i2 (i2-ii) < 5%

Y nghia cua chi tieu IRR:

- Ve mat kinh te: khi NPV = 0 co nghia la toan bo so' ti£n vo'n bo ra da duoc hieu gia bang toan bo so tien thu nhap hoan von hang nam da duoc hien gia cua du an trong toan bo thdi gian hoat dong Chi tieu IRR cho phep cac nha phan tfch nhin thay vdi ty sua't chiet kha'u nao thi du an hoan von

- Chi tieu IRR chi ro muc do lai suat ma du an co the dat duoc Qua do co the cho phep xac dinh duoc muc lai suat tinh toan (itt) to'i thieu ma du an co the chap nhan duoc de bu dap chi phi co hoi

- Viec su dung phuong phap nay rat thfch hop vdi trudng hop trong cac du

an khf vi ly do nao do ma ngudi phan tfch muon tranh hoac kho xac dinh duoc chfnh xac ty suat chiet khau (iu) dung de tinh chi tieu hien gia (NPV)

c Thdi gian hoan v on ( Payback period):

Khai niem:

Thdi gian hoan von la thdi gian can thiet de’ du an hoan lai tong so'von dau

tu da bo ra bang cac khoan lai bang tien mat No chfnh la so' nam trong do du an

se tfch luy cac khoan tien mat de bu dap tOng so' vo'n dau tu bo ra

Cong thuc tinh:

1= £(F,+D,)

t = 0

Luan v an thac sy QTKD V an de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh du an cung cap khi cua TCTDKVN

Trong do:

I:T0ng sd von dau tn

T:Thdi gian thu hoi von

Ft:Loi nhuan rong hang nam t (lai rong)

Dt:Khau hao hang nam t

Y nghia cua chi tieu tinh thd i gian hoan von:

- Xac dinh bao nhieu nam de tong ddng tien hang nam (lai rong) bu dap duoc cac khoan chi phi d^u tu

- Khi xem xet cac phuong an, du an thay the neu phuong an, du an co thdi gian hoan von ngan hon thi phuong an, du an do duoc chon

d Cac du an noi chung, ngoai cac ch i tieu tren, ti gud 'i ta cdn xem xet, danh

Discount Rate):

Thuc te ty le chiet khau itt ap dung de tinh cac chi tieu: NPV, IRR; la ty le chiet khau danh nghia Co the hieu la lai sua't danh nghia (theo thdi gia) cua du

an thay the', dung de chiet kha'u ddng tien danh nghia

Ty suat chiet kha'u thuc (Real discount rate): la lai sua't tfnh theo suc mua khong doi hien tai cua du an thay the' dung de chiet kha'u ddng tien

Cong thuc tinh Ty suat chiet kha'u thuc ((Real discount rate-ir)

Luan van thac sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh du an cung cap khi cua LCTDKVN

Hien gia thuan thuc

■ Hien gia thuan danh nghia theo cong there o tren:

1NPVd„=X(N,-I,)

Ty suat loi nhuan thirc IRR:

■ Ty suat loi nhuan thuc IRR:

0 =NPV.= £(N,-I,)

r=0

+ (l + IRR(r))n(l + 7^w)'

Then gian hoan von co chiet khau

m :So nam hoan von

Doanh loi von dau tu CPI

Khai niem:

Sd tien rong (NCF) thu duoc tren 1 dong von dau tu

■ Cong thirc tfnh:

CPI = (NCF(+ NCF2 + NCF3+ + NCFn)/Capex (chi phi dau tu)

■ Y nghia: Dung de danh gia nhanh du an trong giai doan dau lap du an hoac khdng du cac thong tin can thiet de danh gia sau hon

Luan van thac sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh du an cung cap khi cua TCTDKVN

1.3.2 Ca c c hi t ieu v a n h a nh c ua du a n

Doi vdi cac du an cung cap khf viec xay dung, tfnh toan dong tien cung chfnh la mo phong qua trinh van hanh cua du an, chfnh vi the', chi tieu danh gia quan trong trong qua trinh van hanh do chfnh la dong tien thuan cua du an

■ Khni niem:

Dong tien thuan cua cac du an dau khf noi chung va du an cung cap khf noi rieng do chfnh la tien thu duoc tru di tien phai chi trong mot khoang thdi gian (thudng la 1 nam)

■ Cong thuc:

Dong tien thuan = Tien thu duoc - tien phai chi (trong 1 khoang thdi gian)

■ Y nghia: Viec xac dinh hay du tfnh dong tien thuan trong qua trinh van hanh

cua du an khf la ra't quan trong, vi no se la can cu de xac dinh de an co kha thi

ve mat kinh te'hay khong

■ CCu yeu to cau thanh dong tien uaa du Cn hung cap khf:

do'i vdi cac du an khf viec xac dinh gia khf deu dua tren cac thoa thuan trudc do'vdi cac ho su dung khf va thudng khong dat hon cac nhien lieu thay the'

+ Chi phi: Cac khoan chi phi bao gom cac khoan chi phi sau:

- Chi phi dau tu: bao gom tat cac chi phi trong qua trinh ddu tu du an

man van thac sy <21KD Van de dam bao cac chi lien tdi chinh dif an cung cap khi ciia TCTDKVN

Chi phi van hanh: la chi phf thudng xuyen hang nam de van hanh dir an: chi phf nhan cong, chi phf bao duong sua chua, chi phf quan ly cong ty me, vat tu hoa pham Chi phf nay thudng mot phan co dinh va mot phan bien doi phu thuoc vao san lupng tieu thu khf

Chi phf thanh ly: La cac khoan chi vao cuoi ddi du an de hoan tra mat bang

va bao ve mdi trudng hay la cac khoan thu khi thanh ly trang thiet bi con lai

+ Cac khoan thu cua chinh phu: do chfnh la cac khoan thue phai nop: thue tai

nguyen, chia lai cho nude chu nha, nop thue lpi tuc

Ngoai ra, ddi vdi cac du an cung cap khf, de xem xet tfnh hieu qua cua du

an ngudi ta cdn xem xet tdi cac chi tieu sau:

■ Ty suat lpi nhuan/ Von dau tu: Dupc xac dinh la ty xuat giua lpi nhuan sau thue tren von ddu tu Y nghia cua viec xac dinh chi tieu nay la nham danh gia vdi mot ddng von dau tu thi thu dupc bao nhieu lpi nhuan

■ Ty suat lpi nhuan/ Doanh thu: Dupc xac dinh la ty suat giua lpi nhuansau thue tren doanh thu cua du an Y nghia cua chi tieu tren la nham danhgia mot ddng doanh thu sinh ra bao nhieu lpi nhuan

KHI

Trudc khi quyet dinh dau tu bat ky mot du an nao, ngudi ta thudng phai xem xet ve cac mat kinh te ky thuat, kinh te xa hoi de dua ra ket luan ve tfnh kha thi cua du an do.Ve mat kinh te, cac ket qua tfnh toan va phan tfch kinh te la co sd quyet dinh tfnh kha thi kinh te, muc do hieu qua cung nhu rui ro cua du an Bdi

sau:

Luan van thac sy QTKD Van de dam bao cac chi tieu tai chinh d i e an cung cap khi cua TCTDKVN

• Cac chinh sach cua chinh phu:

Quy hoach phat trien nganh:

Khf la tai nguyen vo cung quy gia, khong tai sinh, la nguon nang luong quan trong, lai la nguon nguyen lieu khong the thieu cua nhieu nganh cong nghiep co vai tro quan trong trong su nghiep Cong nghiep hoa- Hien dai hoa dat nudc Chfnh vi the, viec dinh hudng quy hoach phat trien nganh dac biet quan trong nh^m dam bao an toan nang luong cua da't nudc trong tuong lai

Doi vdi cac du an cung cap khf la phai phu hop vdi quy hoach phat trien nganh, no la mot trong nhung can cd ve tfnh phap nham dam bao cho thanh cong cua du an Trong giai doan lap du an neu khong xem xet yeu to' tren se lam anh hudng ra't ldn den hieu qua kinh te cua du an, lam tang cac chi phf dau tu hoac cac chi phf khac trong qua trinh van hanh va khai thac du an, trong mot so trudng hop du an khong duoc trien khai

Anh hudng cua che do th ue den hieu qua cua du an:

Cac che do thue cua chfnh phu thuc chat la cac khoan chi cua du an va la phan thu cua chfnh phu cac khoan thue cu the’ nhu thue tai nguyen, thue thu nhap thue

dat, cac khoan thue' do thudng chiem mot ty trong khong nho trong thu nhap hay trong dong tien thuan trudc thue cua de an khf Vi vay do'i vdi cac mo ldn thi sau khi tru di phan phai nop cho nudc chu nha thi phan cOn lai vin rat co lai cho cac nha dau tu, tuy nhien doi vdi cac mo nho thi sau khi tru di cac khoan phai nop thi phan con lai khong hap din cac nha dau tu Chfnh sach, che do thue sao cho phan thu cua nudc chu nha la ldn do'i vdi cac de an ldn, sieu loi nhuan con

do'i vdi cac mo nho thi phan thu nay phai hop ly de khuyen khfch cac nha dau tu phat trie’n cac mo bien

• Khao sat thdng tin ve du an

Cac thdng tin va so' lieu thong ke de lap du an khf la mot trong nhung yeu to' quan trong quye't dinh den su thanh cong cung nhu hieu qua kinh te cua du an, nhu chung ta da biet, cac du an khf duoc xay dung dua tren co sd: thuong nguon - trung nguon - ha nguon