Summary of ph d thesis the impact of exports on economic growth in khanh hoa province

DA NANG UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE SUMMARY OF Ph D THESIS Specialization Development Economics Code 62 31 01 05 Da Nang, 2022 The[.]

DA NANG UNIVERSITY

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS

THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE

SUMMARY OF Ph.D THESIS

Specialization: Development Economics

Code: 62 31 01 05

Da Nang, 2022

The thesis was completed at UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS, THE UNIVERSITY OF DANANG

The dissertation can be found at:

- National Library of Vietnam

- The University of Da Nang - The Center for Learning Information Resources and Communication

PREAMBLE

1 Urgency of the topic

Globalization and open integration are inevitable trends in the current open economic era The opening and strengthening of trade helps economies to take advantage of their comparative advantages, improve and enhance their economic competitiveness, and create a driving force for economic growth The effects of international trade on economic growth have been confirmed by economic theories This is also a hot topic of discussion among researchers and policymakers

These empirical studies are approached in different ways Among these are studies that focus on supporting the view of export-led growth There are also studies showing that exports affects to the economic structure and promote economic growth In another perspective, considering the impact of international trade in general and exports in particular on poverty reduction Thus, the empirical studies mainly select the national economy or the transnational region Studies about provincial economy also exist, but not many, and especially with Khanh

Hoa province, there is not yet A research result on this topic with the economy of Khanh Hoa will be a test and supplement to enrich this area of research in the development economics style

Over the years, Khanh Hoa's GRDP scale has been continuously expanded thanks to a relatively high and stable growth rate, with the main driving forces being services and the non-state economic sector, and breadth factors (capital and labor) Economic restructuring has seen positive changes in the past 10 years However, the province's economic growth rate is not commensurate with its potential and existing strengths; it is slowing down and lacks new impetus In addition, the economic position of the province compared to other provinces in the Middle Coastal Region has a certain decline and the economic structure is still changing slowly and changing less than that of the provinces in the region It has not changed strongly in the direction of restructuring production, restructuring investment

In the context of globalization and integration of Vietnam, Khanh Hoa's economy is also increasingly integrating deeply into the world economy Khanh Hoa has had economic relations with many localities of many countries Khanh Hoa province's exports scale has been expanded continuously for more than 10 years, the export structure has changed positively How does such an export growth affect output growth both directly and spreadly into other fields, especially exports, and changes in the quality of goods, can change the production structure

of Khanh Hoa? In addition, does exports help improve welfare and reduce poverty

here and thereby improve the quality of economic growth These questions became more heated when the Khanh Hoa Provincial Government determined to continue restructuring the economy and renewing the growth model through restructuring export activities associated with improving productivity and

efficiency This is a practical question that research on this topic needs to answer

Exports are still an important factor in Khanh Hoa's economic growth to fulfill the goal of turning the province into a fairly developed economy in Vietnam In order to do this, it is necessary to conduct research on this topic to draw out export development policy directions to promote economic growth in Khanh Hoa province quickly and sustainably This is the policy requirement for research

The theoretical, practical, and policy issues that need to be solved have raised

the need for a study on the topic "The impact of exports on economic growth

in Khanh Hoa province.”

- Fourthly, some policy implications are proposed to promote the expansion

of export activities, thereby promoting economic growth in Khanh Hoa province

3 Object and scope of research

- Object research: The topic focuses on researching theoretical and practical

issues about the impact of exports on economic growth in Khanh Hoa province

- Scope of research:

+ About the content: The exports in the study is the exports of goods and services in the district-level units of Khanh Hoa province Here also only consider the growth of export scale mainly Economic growth in the study is not only an increase in output, but also considers the structure of the economic sector and reduces poverty, i.e the thesis considers the quality of economic growth In addition, the thesis also only considers the one-way effect from exports to the economic growth

+ Space: Economy of Khanh Hoa province

+ Time: Data used in the study from 2010 to 2019, some to 2020 The policy implications have the significance till 2030

4 Research Methodology

Research methodology will be explained in the below chapter 2

5 Scientific significance of the thesis

5.1 Theoretical contributions and main findings

First, the theories of economic growth in Development Economics have been summarized, thereby drawing out how exports affect economic growth However,

the empirical studies on this topic in Vietnam and around the world have differences in the context and scale of the economy From these works, the thesis has formed an analytical framework for studying the impact of exports on growth

on the local economy at the provincial level The fact that there is very little and

no research on this topic at the provincial level and in particular in Khanh Hoa, the thesis's results are a supplement to enrich the theory of economic development This is a contribution of the thesis when it has contributed to fill the "gap" in theory

Secondly, the research results have shown the basic bright and dark points about economic growth of Khanh Hoa province: The scale of the province's

economy in the past 10 years has been continuously expanded thanks to the relatively high growth rate, stable with the main driving force being services, non-state economic sector and breadth factors (capital and labor) However, the province's economic growth rate is not commensurate with the potential and existing strengths; is slowing down and lacks new impetus, the economic position

of the province compared to other provinces in the coastal zone has a certain decline The economic structure has changed quite positively in the past 10 years, which has contributed to changing the way economic growth is generated

Thirdly, the research results have made specific assessments of the export situation associated with the characteristics of Khanh Hoa province Khanh Hoa

province's export scale has expanded continuously over the past 10 years, currently accounting for a large proportion compared to GRDP, but the growth rate is slower than the province's economic growth and is less stable, but its position in the Vietnam's export turnover is quite modest

Fourthly, the results of the thesis have confirmed that export has a positive effect on economic growth: (i) Positive impact from export turnover growth on

production value growth of the economy and exports has a positive spillover effect on other economic sectors; (ii) Exports also promotes economic restructuring of the province and is shown in the evidence that the growth of export turnover reduces the proportion of workers in the agricultural sector and

increases the proportion of workers in the non-agricultural sector This positive economic structural change will help the economy achieve a more efficient growth pattern; (iii) Exports has a positive effect on poverty reduction here, as demonstrated by the impact of export growth on poverty improvement in the province

5.2 Practical contributions drawn from the research results

Firstly, to expand, support, improve and raise the quality of export activities

thereby promoting output growth: Promote openness, promote export as export

promotion orientation; Improve the competitiveness of exported goods; Find all measures to improve the labor productivity of export activities; Continue to promote the strength of resources and labor to expand exports

Second, focus on improving export activities, especially export

restructuring, thereby promoting economic restructuring of the province

Accordingly, focus on: Exports restructuring associated with economic restructuring, especially in the service - tourism sector of the province, from raw exports to exporting of high-tech products and services; E-commerce application

to support key export industries; Strengthen trade promotion; Promote the role of export business associations

Thirdly, promote the role of exports in improving poverty, thereby promoting

economic growth; specifically supporting economic development in rural areas;

Promoting specialization and improve the quality of exported agricultural products; Improving the quality of rural workers; Raising and improving rural infrastructure in remoted areas

6 Structure of the thesis

CHAPTER 1 THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL BASIS ON IMPACTS

OF EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

CHAPTER 1 THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL BASIS ON THE IMPACT OF

EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.1 GENERAL ISSUES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPORTS 1.1.1 General problems of economic growth

a The concept of economic growth

b Contents of economic growth assessment

1.1.2 General Export Issues

1.2 THEORIES RELATED TO THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

1.2.1 Theories on the impact of exports on growth from the aggregate demand side

1.2.1.1 The theory of gravity economy

1.2.1.2 Kaldor's export-led growth theory

1.2.2 Theories on the impact of exports on growth from the aggregate supply side

1.2.2.1 Classical economic theories

1.2.2.2 Neoclassical Theory

1.2.2.3 The theory of endogenous economic growth

1.2.4 Some conclusions drawn from the study of related theories

Exports affects growth in terms of both aggregate supply and aggregate demand through a number of channels: First, increasing employment and income opportunities for developing economies with labor surpluses Thereby mobilizing more potential labor into the economy to promote growth From the perspective

of aggregate demand, an increase in income leads to an increase in current and future consumption, through an output amplification effect Increased consumption will create income and employment effects, especially in rural areas, contributing to poverty reduction Secondly, exports contribute to the accumulation of capital - production capital thanks to foreign currency sources obtained from exports (especially in developing countries, agricultural products are often exported mainly) to provide foreign currency to buy goods purchase modern machinery and equipment for the domestic economy Third, exports contribute to the improvement of the economy's production techniques and technology Fourth, export is a factor affecting economic structure change through reallocation of resources according to export markets Fifth, exports has an impact

on poverty reduction thanks to its role in terms of both aggregate supply and aggregate demand

1.3 SUMMARY RESULTS OF EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH ON IMPACTS OF EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

1.3.1 Synthesize the results of empirical studies on the impact of exports on output growth

In economics, there are many empirical studies on the relationship between international trade or exports and economic growth Some research directions can

be mentioned to understand the impact of exports on economic growth, or led growth These studies used time series or cross-sectional data with different conclusions The second group consists of studies that use regression methods to examine the relationship between export growth and economic growth, using the classical growth accounting equation The third group tested the causal relationship between export growth and economic growth using Granger causality test Finally, recent studies have examined the impact of exports on growth using co-integration techniques and error correction models Some of the main studies

export-by foreign and domestic authors following these approaches can be mentioned Thus, most of the studies have the scope of the object is the national economy or the territory of many economies and the methods are also diverse for those subjects In other words, research on this topic is very interested and carried out despite the different economic levels, the application of the methods can also

be extended to these subjects This also shows a gap in a study on this topic in the local economy at the provincial level But this gap will also be filled by applying these analytical methods on the basis of the data of this economy

1.3.2 Synthesize the results of empirical studies on the impact of exports on economic restructuring

Many different studies with different approaches to examine the role of exports in economic restructuring, thereby affecting economic growth But direct research on the impact of exports on economic restructuring is very limited, mainly through international trade activities such as export, investment, labor and technology export, exchange of goods and services economy among countries affects the production structure of exporting economies It is this structural change that entails allocating resources to create a more efficient industry structure to add impetus to economic growth Thus, a research gap has arisen If this study takes into account the impact of exports on economic sector restructuring, it will contribute to fill this gap

1.3.3 Synthesize the results of empirical studies on the impact of exports on poverty reduction

There have been many different studies with different approaches to examine the role of exports in poverty reduction, thereby helping to distribute the

results of economic growth to society, minimizing the negative side of the

process this program But studies are often national or transnational in scope,

although there are studies of the national economy using district-level data In

addition, most consider the elements of free trade, of which exports are only a

small part, and have an impact on poverty reduction Thus, there is still a lack of

a study at the provincial level of the local economy and the direct impact of

commodity exports on poverty reduction

CONCLUSION CHAPTER 1

CHAPTER 2 LOCAL CHARACTERISTICS AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

2.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF RESEARCH LOCATION

On the basis of the above-mentioned theories, the thesis presents a diagram

showing the research analysis framework:

Figure 2.2 Analytical framework

ts

R D

P Economic structure

ECONOMIC GROWTH Poverty reduction

2.2.1.2 Research process

2.2.2 Research approach

Figure 2.3 Research procedure

(Source: from the author)

2.2.3 Research methodology

2.2.3.1 Qualitative analysis methods: including methods of analysis,

comparison, descriptive statistics, expert interviews

2.2.3.2 Quantitative analytical method: based on Mankiw's original equation and

The object of research

Studying the impact of exports on economic growth

Evaluating the exports situation

of Khanh Hoa province

Analysing the impact of exports

on economic growth in Khanh

Bui Quang Binh's model (2016), the thesis builds the following proposed models: ggdpit = a + αsit + βglit+ϭxxit+θgxit +uit (22)

Where: ggdp = ∆Y/Y, s = I/Y, gl = = ∆L/L, xx = (∆EX/EX)(EX/Y), gx =

∆EX/EX u is the error

LnCCKTit = β0 + β1lnYit + β2sit + β3Xit + it (28)

Pov = f (EX, GDP, C, Urban) (29)

2.2.4 Data collection methods

2.2.4.1 Secondary data collection method

The data used for the analysis are all taken from the province's Statistical Yearbook from 2010-2020, especially in the districts of Khanh Hoa province, the data is used from 2010 to 2019 (because it is more difficult to collect district-level data The data are provided by Khanh Hoa Statistical Office and district statistical sub-departments)

2.2.4.2 Primary data collection method

Primary data is collected through expert interviews to implement the expert method These data fall into categories such as (i) The effect of exports on economic output growth; (ii) Effects of exports on economic restructuring; (iii) Effects of exports on poverty reduction The experts selected here are 25 import-export managers at the provincial Department of Industry and Trade, the Economic Division of the districts, towns and cities, a number of large export enterprises in the province

The data was collected when using the questionnaire in The Appendix 1

CONCLUSION CHAPTER 2

CHAPTER 3 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPORT STATUS OF KHANH HOA

PROVINCE 3.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH SITUATION OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE 3.1.1 Scale and changing trend of GRDP in Khanh Hoa province

The scale of the economy expanded continuously, growing quite high, continuously and quite stable compared to the common level of the Middle Coastal Region provinces

The scale of production value of localities at district level tends to be expanded in recent years This creates and maintains the province's overall economic growth over the years In which, production value of Nha Trang City is the largest economy, reaching more than 31.1 trillion VND in 2010 and more than 58.9 trillion VND in 2019, an average growth of 7.35%

3.1.2 Economic structure and restructuring

the economic structure of Khanh Hoa province has had a positive change, but it is still slow and has changed less than the situation in the Northern mountainous region invest; slow development of in-depth investment in industries with high technology content and great added value Competitive advantages in each industry, region and economic sector have not been brought into play At the same time, three economic regions have been formed quite clearly, along with the structure and restructuring by regions are quite fast and strong However, the distribution of all three regions is located in the east and following the coast will make the western region more and more backward The economic structure of Khanh Hoa province has changed quite quickly with the increasingly important role of the non-state economic sector

3.1.3 Mobilization, allocation and use of resources in economic growth

To promote economic growth, Khanh Hoa province has (i) Mobilized a relatively large and continuously increasing investment source from within the economy and the private sector; Focusing on allocating investment capital for service development and spending very little on agriculture, forestry and fishery, has limited the development of this industry; (ii) Significantly mobilized labor resources of the province and the region, concentrated labor allocation to non-agricultural sectors, promoted economic restructuring, labor utilization efficiency was quite high and gradually increased However, the labor structure is still less modern and has not fully exploited the development potential of non-agricultural industries; (iii) The province has made efforts to improve the level of production technology in recent years, enterprises have also invested more in technology

3.2 EXPORT STATUS OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE

3.2.1 Scale and trend of changes in total export turnover of Khanh Hoa province

Export turnover value of Khanh Hoa province has increased continuously in the past 10 years, accounting for a large proportion compared to GRDP, but increasing slower than economic growth and accounting for a relatively small proportion compared to Vietnam's export value The export structure of the province has changed positively but is still quite limited (i) Mainly relying on exporting goods and exploiting natural advantages, but the exploitation space is still not much, the export potential is limited service is still very large; (ii) Still mainly exporting low value raw (agricultural products and unprocessed products); (iii)