Quan hệ đối tác hợp tác chiến lược Hàn Quốc – Việt Nam và định hướng trong bối cảnh thay đổi quản trị toàn cầu trong thế kỷ 21

Quan hệ đối tác hợp tác chiến lược Hàn Quốc – Việt Nam và định hướng trong bối cảnh thay đổi quản trị toàn cầu trong thế kỷ 21

DIPLOMATIC ACADEMY OF VIETNAM

-

PARK NOH WAN

REPUBLIC OF KOREA-VIETNAM STRATEGIC COOPERATIVE PARTNERSHIP

AND THE WAY FORWARD IN THE NEW CONTEXT OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

DOCTORAL DISSERTATION MAJOR: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

INDEX NUMBER: 62310206

HANOI – 2014

DIPLOMATIC ACADEMY OF VIETNAM

-

PARK NOH WAN

REPUBLIC OF KOREA-VIETNAM STRATEGIC COOPERATIVE PARTNERSHIP

AND THE WAY FORWARD IN THE NEW CONTEXT OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

DOCTORAL DISSERTATION

SUPERVISOR: ASSOC.PROF.DR NGUYEN THAI YEN HUONG

HANOI – 2014

I affirm that this doctoral dissertation is the outcome of my own research and study All the statistics and figures included in the dissertation are authentic and precise All the findings have never been published in any other research study

AUTHOR

PARK NOH WAN

Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Thai Yen Huong for her instruction, support and encouragement during my research process

My sincere thanks are also due to teachers and staff at the Faculty of Post Graduate Study, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, for offering me the most favorable conditions to complete my dissertation

Finally, I am grateful to all my family members, friends and colleagues for their support and encouragement

Hanoi, April 2014 Author Park Noh Wan

LIST OF ACRONYMS

LIST OF FIGURES

PREFACE 1

CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGES AND THEIR CHARACTERISTICS 14

1.1 Global Governance: Definition and Framework 14

1.1.1 Global Governance: Definition and Analytical Usefulness of the Concept 14

1.1.2 Global Governance: Transition and Structure 16

1.2 Governance Structure Changes and Their Characteristics 19

1.2.1 Structural Change Background: The End of the Cold War 19

1.2.2 Characteristics of Recent Global Governance Change 20

1.2.2.1 Transition into Multi-Polar System: Declining US and Rising China 20

1.2.2.2 Strengthening Regionalism: Expansion of Economic Blocks 24 1.2.2.3 Global Issues and Limitation of UN and G8 Roles 27

1.3 Global Governance: Reshaping and Prospects 30

1.3.1 Possibility of Reshaping Global Governance 30

1.3.2 Reshaping Prospects of Global Governance 32

1.4 Regional Governance Change in East Asia 34

1.4.3 Southeast Asia: Regional Cooperation and Change 37

1.5 Remarks 40

CHAPTER 2: ROK AND VIETNAM: POLICY RESPONSES TO GLOBAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNANCE CHANGE SINCE 1991 43 2.1 ROK and Vietnam: Responses to Global Governance Change 43

2.1.1 Why it was Necessary for ROK and Vietnam to Respond 43

2.1.2 ROK‟s Policy Responses 44

2.1.3 Vietnam‟s Policy Responses 48

2.2 Responses to the Global Economic Crisis on the Part of ROK and Vietnam 52

2.2.1 Global Economic Crises and its Structural Trends 52

2.2.2 Policy Responses: ROK and Vietnam 54

2.3 Responses to Regional Governance Change: ROK and Vietnam 58 2.3.1 Rising China and Regional Governance Change 58

2.3.2 Responses of ROK and Vietnam to Regional Governance

Change 63

2.4 Remarks 67

CHAPTER 3: ROK-VIETNAM BILATERAL RELATIONS AND WAYS FORWARD IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGE IN THE 21 st CENTURY 71

3.1 Overview of ROK-Vietnam Bilateral Relations 71

3.1.1 ROK-Vietnam Bilateral Relations Before 1992 71

3.1.2.2 Economic Cooperation 77

3.1.2.3 Development Cooperation (ODA) 84

3.1.2.4 Cultural and Social Cooperation 87

3.2 Opportunities and Challenges in ROK-Vietnam Relations 91

3.2.1 Opportunities in ROK- Vietnam Relations 91

3.2.2 Engines behind Rapidly Expanding Bilateral Relations 94

3.2.3 Challenges in ROK-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations 96

3.2.3.1 Challenges with Regional and Global Dimensions 97

3.2.3.2 Challenges in Bilateral Relations Dimension 105

3.3 Ways Forward for ROK-Vietnam Relations in the 21st Century 109 3.3.1 Strategic Cooperative Partnership: Ways Forward 109

3.3.2 General Principles 112

3.3.3 Recommendations for Deepening Strategic Partnership 115

3.3.3.1 For Trust-Building in Politics, Security and Diplomacy 116

3.3.3.2 For Positive Response to US and Chinese Foreign Policies 118 3.3.3.3 For Strategic Cooperation in Trade and Economic Sector 120 3.3.3.4 For Diplomatic Relations with North Korea 122

3.3.3.5 For Coordinative Response to the Emerging Global Issues 123 3.3.4 Remarks 131

CONCLUSION 136

AUTHOR’S WORKS 140

LIST OF REFERENCES 141

AKFTA ASEAN-ROK Free Trade Agreement

APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and Republic of South Africa

FEALAC Forum of East Asia-Latin America Cooperation

GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

IMF International Monetary Fund

KAOVA Korea Agent Orange Veterans Association

KFHI Korea Food for the Hungry International

KITA Korea International Trade Association

KVFTA ROK - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement

MERCOSUR Common Market of South America

NAFTA North America Free Trade Agreement

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

PNTR Permanent Normal Trade Relations

RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnerships

TTIP Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

UXO Unexploded Ordnance

VAVA Vietnam Association of Victims of Agent Orange (Dioxin)

Figure 3: Proportional Size of ROK, Chinese, and Japanese Economies in the

World 36

Figure 4: ROK, China and Japan Trade Trends 36

Figure 5: ROK, China and Japan Trade Ratio in World Trade 37

Figure 6: ASEAN GDP in the World 38

Figure 7: ASEAN members‟ GDP per capita (IMF 2012 estimates) 38

Figure 8: Total ROK Trade Volume 1957-2011 47

Figure 9: Global GDP Growth (percent, quarter over quarter) 53

Figure 10: Vietnam‟s Economic Growth & Inflation 2002 - 2010 57

Figure 11: Government Debt and Government Guaranteed Public Debt 58

Figure 12: ROK‟s Investment Trend in Vietnam 78

Figure 13: Bilateral Trade and Investment Trend 79

Figure 14: Top Ten Investing Countries in Vietnam 80

Figure 15: Trend of Vietnam‟s Trade Balance with ROK 81

Figure 16: Vietnam's Share in ROK's Total Trade with ASEAN 82

Figure 17: The Trend of Visitors to Vietnam 88

Figure 18: Comparison of ROK, Japan and Singapore Links with Vietnam (2005-2013) 93

Figure 19: ROK-Vietnam Trade Deficit Trend 106

Figure 20: Energy and Oil Consumption Data 124

Figure 21: Dependence on Foreign Resources, Oil Dependence on the Middle East 124

Figure 22: Competing claims in the South China Sea 126

PREFACE

1 Introduction

Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, regional and global governance have been changing rapidly So, too, has the strategic cooperative partnership between Republic of Korea (hereafter referred to as ROK) and Vietnam There are good reasons, therefore, to carry out an in–depth analysis of the evolving ROK-Vietnam relationship in its global setting The world is now in the process of an unprecedented transition period Many experts predict that the future world may shift into the “G-2 (the US and China) Era” or “the Energy- Climate Era.” [31, pp 308] Scholars like T Friedman1, expect that the green and environmentally-friendly technology will play a key role in reshaping economic growth paradigms and creating national prosperity in the future

Likewise, in the post-Cold War period, the world has changed remarkably with rapid globalization Globalization has played a pivotal role in increasing the total world GDP as well as in facilitating relationships among countries The world has become more unified, and its system has also rapidly changed Together with a rapid leap in economic growth in the emerging countries such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and Republic of South Africa), the global order and the international system are being newly

1 T Friedman, – famous for his work on globalization, views, the future world as “Hot, Flat and Crowded”, that is to say, characterized by the three trends of global warming, middle class society and increasing of population, (from 6.7 billion in 2010 to 9.7 billion in 2050) A green revolution is the only strategy to preserve the continued existence of human kind as well as the leadership power and the role of the United States

reshaped In short, the relationships among powers which were created after World War II are being restructured

In the 21st century, relationship adjustments among powers will be one

of the main issues in world politics This transition can be summarized under the following three points: i) structural change in socialist systems, ii) shifts in world power politics, and iii) changes in global actors‟ behavior To be more specific, after the Cold War, the dissolution of the Soviet Union led to the collapse of the socialist bloc worldwide As a result, the world changed from

a bipolar to a uni-polar system, in which the United States became the leading state Many countries then began to move from socialist planned economies to free market oriented ones, promoting the free exchange of goods and personnel The tone of world politics, too, changed from Hard Power Politics –dominated by diplomatic, security and military issues to Soft Power Politics- focusing on economics and culture International actors began to address global issues together through dialogue and friendly cooperation under the basic principle of promoting peace and stability, and also fostered a cooperative and unified spirit to deal with global issues

In this complicated environment, the global governance change has decisively, and in every aspect, influenced the development of ROK and Vietnam relations Around the middle of the 1980s, ROK and Vietnam were under pressure to reshape and rejuvenate their foreign policies to swiftly adapt

to the changing global order They responded to the newly evolving structure

of world order in a timely manner, proclaiming more reform oriented and open foreign policies to enhance their national interests in the 21st century

These policies contributed to promoting diplomatic normalization between the two countries in 1992, laying the groundwork for astonishing development in bilateral relations over the next twenty years

Working on this solid foundation, ROK and Vietnam need to draw up a new strategic cooperative framework Vietnam aims to complete its industrialization and modernization by 2020, while ROK has a national goal

to reunify the Korean peninsula With these ideas as a background, this dissertation examines the two countries‟ foreign policies and their relations in all sectors It also poses the question “What will be the next step forwards in ROK-Vietnam relations”? It then offers some proposals to re-coordinate each country‟s foreign policy in the coming years and to further develop their 2009 strategic cooperative partnership Finally, the dissertation analyzes the present global governance mechanism established at the end of the World War II, surveys the distinctive characteristics of global governance change after the end of the Cold War, examines the responses of ROK and Vietnam to these changes, and then explores ways in which both countries can cooperate in the medium and long term periods in the 21st century

2 Literature review

There have been many books, articles and research papers analyzing

“global governance” However, up to now, works examining the Vietnam Strategic Cooperative Partnership in the 21st century in the new context of the global governance change have been lacking The word “global governance” has come into use with the rapid globalization since the 1990s Yet what exactly is “global governance”? Who governs the world? Both the

ROK-concept and the definition of “global governance” are rather vague The Commission on Global Governance2 defines its subject very generally as “the sum of the many ways in which individuals and institutions, public and private, manage their common affairs It is a continuing process through which conflicting or diverse interests may be accommodated and cooperative action taken.”[45, pp.7-8] However, the meaning of the term varies, depending on the person employing it or the circumstances in which it is used The term does not have a precise definition because there is really no a general consensus about its meaning [124].

Generally, “global governance” is a useful concept as a descriptive tool for international cooperation; however, it has its limitations as an analytic framework to explain the cause and effect relationship between cooperation and conflict Authors like James Rosenau have also used “governance” to denote the regulation of interdependent relations in the absence of any overarching political authority, such as in the international system From a slightly different perspective Robert Gilpin proposes Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST), arguing that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single nation-state is the dominant world power, maintaining hegemony [33, pp 107]

Regarding the global governance mechanism after the end of the Cold War, there are a number of views Many people ask whether it will be possible

to continue to keep the present world order in the 21st century If it is possible,

2 The Commission was established in 1992 with the support of United Nations Secretary-General Boutros

Boutros-Ghali

when and in what circumstances is eventual change likely? Who and which country can lead any future shift? Joseph Nye considers that the various and complex transnational connections and interdependencies between states and societies have been increasing, while the use of military force and power balancing is decreasing, although it still remains important [49, pp 115] The article by James Petras entitled “China: Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence as a Global Power” proposes a different view China will replace the United States

to become a leading world economic power over the next decade However, China has seriously lagged behind the United States and Europe in building

an aggressive war-making capacity Nevertheless, the leadership in regulating world order is gradually shifting to the emerging countries The article in the Financial Times entitled “The End of US hegemony: Legacy of 9/11” argues that while the United State still maintains overwhelming power, it no longer plays the role of hegemony [13]

Regarding the reform of the United Nations, Thomas G.Weiss, David P Fasythe and Roger A Coate in “The United Nations and Changing World Politics” take up three key issues: international peace and security; human rights and the growing influence of non-state actors; and sustainable development/eco-development However, this work cannot provide a clear-cut answer to the main issues which the UN is now facing The key issue of the

UN is how to reform the UN Security Council With accelerated globalization unprecedented global issues have arisen A number of books, journals, and articles dealing with global issues such as climate change, poverty, terrorism,

and human rights, are now being published Among them are the “UN International Panel Convention Climate Change (IPCCC) Report” and the

“Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change” by Nicholas Stern However, there are many coercive ways to address such global issues As noted above, research on the ROK-Vietnam Strategic Cooperative Partnership has hitherto been limited The Cold War prevented ROK and Vietnam from establishing normal relations and engaging in people to people exchange Of course, ROK had good diplomatic relations with South Vietnam before Vietnam‟s unification by North Vietnam in 1974 Nevertheless, from the middle of the 1980s, both ROK and Vietnam began to exchange trade The article by Do Hai Nam, Ngo Xuan Binh and Sung Yeul Koo in “Economic Cooperation between ROK and Vietnam in the Context of East Asian Integration” notes that, while their relations were inaugurated commercial during the second half of the 1980s, the ties remained limited to trade [3, pp 419] Around that time, ROK and Vietnam proclaimed new foreign policies to respond to the rapid changes in the international environment ROK opened its “Northern Diplomacy,” while Vietnam adopted “Doi Moi (Reform and Open Door Policy)” in 1986 These two diplomatic policies provided the greatest impulse to strengthen ROK-Vietnam relations and bring them to their present state In this regard, Alexander Lam Vuving “The Shaping of Foreign Policy: Vietnamese Grand Strategy after the Cold War” [115] sheds light on the reconstruction of Vietnamese diplomacy in the new world order Charles

K Armstrong‟s article entitled “South Korea‟s Northern Policy” 3

, [10, pp 35-45] examines the ROK‟s response, focusing on the importance of attached

to dialogue and lessening tensions with North Korea and its communist allies Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between ROK and Vietnam in 1992, numerous studies of bilateral ties have been published Most focus on the development of economic and cultural, but not political relations The article entitled “Vietnam-Korea Strategic Cooperative Partnership” in The “World and Vietnam magazine” in 2012 and the study by Do Hai Nam, Ngo Xuan Binh and Sung Yeul Koo in “Economic Cooperation between Vietnam and the Republic of Korea in the East Asian Integration,” both present new insights into the remarkable development of ROK-Vietnam relations over the last 20 years These publications argue that the unprecedented development has occurred because both countries lie geographically in the “East Asian cultural region”, with its salient characteristics of patriotism, intelligence and skill, passion for study and industriousness in work It was against this background that the two countries‟ relations were upgraded to “Strategic Cooperative Partnership” in 2009 from the “Comprehensive Cooperative Partnership” in 2001

However, there have been very few books which attempt to examine

3 The “Northern Policy" was the signature foreign policy of South Korean president Roh Tae-woo The policy guided South Korean efforts to reach out to the traditional allies of North Korea, with the ultimate goal of normalized relations with the People's Republic of China and the Soviet Union, both to improve the South's economy and to leave the North so isolated that it would have no choice but to open itself up and reduce military tensions

comprehensively “Vietnam-ROK strategic cooperative relations and their future direction in the context of global governance change in the 21stcentury” Ngo Xuan Binh‟s book entitled “The Relationship between Vietnam and South Korea in the New International Context” [2, pp 296-297] suggests new ideas on upgrading the bilateral relationship to a “Strategic Cooperative Partnership” in the 21st century However, the book fails to put forward more detailed strategic directions in response to the shifting patterns of recent world governance, and also does not clarify the fundamental principles, global and regional, on which a comprehensive 21st century “strategic cooperative partnership” should be based

3 The research objectives

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Cold War has ended Moreover, both East and West Germany have been unified Despite this, many legacies of the Cold War persist in the East Asian region, especially in the Korean peninsula With the international order experiencing rapid change, many new and complex global issues have arisen Most of these are having an impact on the East Asian region Within this region, two very sensitive problems, the North Korean nuclear issue and territorial dispute in the South China Sea, remain unsolved At the same time, a now wealthy and strong China has been demonstrating its power in the territorial disputes with Japan over the Senkaku islands and with Vietnam and Philippines over the Sprately islands Nationalism in the East Asia is also becoming strident and attractive

to many leaders as a political tool Many scholars predict that rising China

might attempt to change the global governance system centered on the Western countries, with the passage of time

Under these circumstances, Vietnam and Korea need to consider a variety of realistic alternative diplomatic strategies This dissertation looks at Korean and Vietnamese strategic cooperation in the context of global governance change in the 21st century It focuses on the questions “What should be the next step in ROK-Vietnam relations in the context of global governance change?” “What measures should ROK and Vietnam takes to deal with various and complex factors,” and “What are their most realistic policy options in 21st century.” The dissertation then proposes new mid and long-term visions for upgrading ROK-Vietnam relations in the 21st century

4 The task of the dissertation

The dissertation focuses on solving the following tasks:

1) Studying the importance of the changing process and characteristics of global governance mechanisms in contemporary world history

2) Finding possible ways of defining international/regional/bilateral special events and situations by international political theory

3) Trying to clarify the implications of these developments and approaches for the Asian region, especially ROK and Vietnam, and analyzing possible ways forward for both countries as they respond to bilateral issues that might arise in the future

4) Examining realistic alternatives for ROK and Vietnam to upgrade and develop their relations in all sectors, including political and military cooperation

5) Proposing some recommendations for a “ROK-Vietnam new mid and long term strategic vision”, a new strategic cooperative model in the years to come

5 Scope of the research

The period covered by this research shall be limited to that extending from the end of the Cold War in 1991 to 2020 The dissertation analyzes the global governance structure that was formed after the Second World War in

1945 It then provides an overview of global and regional governance changes and their recent characteristics from the end of the Cold War to the present It also analyzes the responses of ROK and Vietnam to the global governance changes during this period The analysis of the strategic cooperative partnership between ROK and Vietnam begins from 1992, when the two countries established their diplomatic relations, and continues to cover the following 30 years

Regarding subject matter, the dissertation takes up the reshaping of relations among major international actors, especially the United States and China, along with international organizations such as UN, IMF, WB, G-8, G-

20 and ASEAN It will also analyze power redistribution trends among the

great powers and examine their foreign policies in the East Asia region The

dissertation pays particular attention to the foreign policies of ROK and

Vietnam in response to global governance change from the middle of the

1980s to the present

6 Research methods

The dissertation avoids technical discussion as much as possible,

focusing first on developing a narrative of the great changes in global order and governance and highlighting their distinguishing features and implications Subsequently, trends in Post Cold War ROK-Vietnam relations within this framework are discussed with reference, where appropriate, to political economy and international relations theory

Again, where appropriate, the author makes use of historical, logical, statistical, comparative and mathematical approaches, time series analysis, and so on Generally speaking, historical and time series approaches are the most important in this work, especially when examining changing trends in global governance mechanisms, and issues such as terrorism, climate change, food security These approaches are also indispensable for analyzing the foreign policies of all actors, including those of ROK and Vietnam So to is the application of logic, which can often reveal the hidden, underlying significance of apparently unconnected events Dialectical approaches can be employed to demonstrate the essential unity in US policies and actions in the world at large as well as the East Asian region Comparative methods help uncover differences in United States‟ foreign policy on global/regional/bilateral issues and towards particular countries Statistical and mathematical data is also utilized, where relevant

7 The contribution of the dissertation

- The dissertation is the first work done in Vietnam to provide in-depth analysis on ROK-Vietnam relations in the context of global governance change from the end of the Cold War to the present in a complete and systematic manner

- The dissertation endeavors to analyze the advantages, disadvantages and prospects for each field of bilateral cooperation, as well as to propose various recommendations to enhance cooperative efficiency in the coming years

- The dissertation studies the bilateral relations between ROK and Vietnam as well as the relations of the two countries with China, the United States and other international actors, which helps deepen the readers‟ knowledge of international relations

- The dissertation provides a reference material for the teaching and studying of world history, global governance theory, and international relations, especially the relations between Vietnam and ROK, at universities, colleges, institutes, and research centers

- The dissertation should be a useful reference source for foreign-policy makers and planners on Vietnam‟s relations with ROK

8 The structure of the dissertation

Apart from the Introduction, the Conclusion and the Appendix, the dissertation will be organized in three chapters, as follows:

1) Chapter 1 analyzes “Global Governance Changes and Their Characteristics” (including its early form and the transition process)

(1) Global Governance: Definition and Framework

(2) Governance Structure: Changes and Their Characteristics

(3) Global Governance: Reshaping and Prospects

(4) Regional Governance Change in the East Asia Region

2) Chapter 2 describes “Policy Responses of ROK and Vietnam to Global and Regional Governance Change since 1991”

(1) ROK and Vietnam: Responses to Global Governance Change (2) ROK and Vietnam: Responses to Global Economic Crisis

(3) ROK and Vietnam: Responses to Regional Governance Change 3) Chapter 3 analyzes “Current ROK-Vietnam Bilateral Relations and the Ways Forward in the Context of Global and Regional Governance Change in the 21st Century”

(1) Overview of ROK-Vietnam Bilateral Relations

(2) Opportunities and Challenges in ROK-Vietnam Relations

(3) ROK-Vietnam Relations: Ways Forward in the 21st Century

CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGES AND THEIR

CHARACTERISTICS 1.1 Global Governance: Definition and Framework

1.1.1 Global Governance: Definition and Analytical Usefulness of the Concept

In retrospect, globalization has deepened remarkably since the end of the Cold War It has played a pivotal role in greatly increasing real GDP and in strengthening relationships among countries This global trend has impacted the global and regional governance structures which were formed after the end of World War II What exactly is global governance? Who governs the world? According to Lawrence Finkelstein, “We say „governance‟ because

we do not really know what to call what is going on.” [30 pp 367-368] Globalization has brought along a new form of governance It has become a key term in the study of international political economy and international relations, but the concept of global governance has not yet been defined for

“unanimous and unified usage in the study of international relations” [27, pp 246] Like globalization, governance can be conceived broadly or narrowly Most generally, the Commission on Global Governance defines its subject as

“the sum of the many ways in which individuals and institutions, public and private, manage their common affairs.” [103, pp 4]

In recent years, the term "global governance" has become a frequently used expression as is shown by the publication of a journal of the same name However, the meaning of the term remains diverse depending on personal

usage or the circumstances under which it is used The term does not have a definition which has achieved general consensus [124] In a broad meaning, Thomas G Weiss, Director of the Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, defines

“global governance” as “collective efforts to identify, understand or address world-wide problems that go beyond the capacity of individual states to solve.” Global governance refers to the authoritative allocation (by a variety

of means) of values in policy areas that potentially affect the world as a whole and its component parts [19, pp 119-125] Ngaire Woods makes the distinction between applying the principles of good governance to international organizations, interstate relations (international governance) and applying them to the more complex relations found in global governance (between individuals, people, groups and international organizations) Good governance can mean good leadership In this particular case, institutions exist to soften the imperfections of the market and to offer a large array of public goods There is also a second case of good governance when it links institutions and society together in a governance form i.e the rules that establish social practices, cast roles and guide interactions [120, pp 39]

As such, “governance” is a useful concept as a descriptive tool for international cooperation, but it has its limits as an analytic framework, in the sense that it cannot explain the cause and effect relationships between cooperation and conflicts Therefore, it may be risky or less strictly analytical

to cover a broad range of global governance, especially when taking into consideration the fact that the term is bound to constantly exhibit still more changes and shifts Against this backdrop, this dissertation avoids digressive

and technical discussion as much as possible but attempts to trace the brief storyline of the great changes that have taken place in global governance, together with their distinguishing features and implications This approach may be meaningful for the analysis of current and future trends in ROK-Vietnam relations The author employs Thomas G Weiss‟s definition of global governance as a backbone to explain the points throughout this dissertation

1.1.2 Global Governance: Transition and Structure

The site and scope of governance have changed over the past several centuries This changing pattern has been influenced by various factors such

as world wars and globalization Its most developed era can be divided into three stages Before 1914, governance centered around national governments and industrialization prompted the formation of international institutions like the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) This modern political architecture was put into place in 1648, at the end of the Thirty Years War, a religious and political disaster that marked the height of the European religious wars and which witnessed the last attempt of the Hapsburg Empire to establish European hegemony The Peace of Westphalia, put an end to this conflict and installed a sustainable geopolitical system that would govern Europe, and then, with the expansion of European colonialism, much of the world, until 1914 The Westphalian revolution was characterized by the establishment of a chessboard of nation-states whose stability was to be hopefully maintained through a complex balance of power The “Westphalian” system consolidated itself between 1648 and 1789 It was obliterated by Napoleon before being reestablished at the Congress of Vienna in 1815 [16, pp 2-4]

A second stage can be seen beginning with the establishment of the

League of Nations, set up in the wake of the World War I This institution failed because of a blocked economic system, military insecurity, and regional war With its collapse, governance was once again claimed by powerful national governments, and after a short parenthesis of twenty years, global conflict erupted again A third reshaping in governance that emerged after

1945 envisioned a world dominated by powerful governments that acted according to the principles of national security and balance of power The system that emerged after World War II was an ideologically heterogeneous one that saw two blocks in direct confrontation with one another The “post Westphalian” balance of powers that took root in 1945 soon became a bipolar one, upheld by the threat of a nuclear disaster The collapse of USSR in 1991 marked the end of this balance of powers As in 1919 and 1945, when collective security systems were established, 1991 opened up a whole range

of theoretical and practical possibilities to shape the future It was against this background that the idea of global governance –a pre-1991 concept – came into prominence [16, pp 2]

In the decades after the end of the Second World War in 1945, the United States and the USSR maintained high profiles in world politics However, another overlapping basic framework for maintaining international order also existed, centering around the following organizations: one main pillar was the United Nations, others were the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the WB (World Bank) In the political arena, the UN played a key role to maintain world order under the principle of its collective security mechanism In the economic field,

GATT managed the stability of world trade and financial flows with the basic principles of non-discrimination, cooperation, interdependence and transparency, based on the ideal of free trade; the IMF, providing capital for temporary deficits in balances of trade, managed the stability of international capital flows; and the World Bank assisted with long term capital for restoring the economy after the World War During the Cold War era, this basic structure was maintained by the interdependence relations focusing on the

“Balance Of Power” and “National Security” among the nations, rather like that previously proposed by Thomas Hobbes

This governance structure gradually shifted as a result of the redistribution of economic power among the major players After the Middle East war in 1971, the United States recorded its first trade deficit At the same time, its gross national product in comparison with that of 6 other industrial countries (England, West Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Japan), has dropped from 70% in 1950 to 30-40% in the 1980s and to only 23% at present time [96, pp 162-163] Two trends are at work here First, the economic strength of the United States has decreased Second, there have been changes

in the distribution of economic power due to the comparative rise of some newly emergent blocs and countries such as EU and China In the 1970s, with the relative weakening of the United States economy, there was an enhancement in economic strength of Japan and Germany The value of the dollar was relatively underappreciated compared to that of the yen and mark Therefore, at the meeting in Plaza in 1984, the exchange rates between the US dollar and Japanese yen were adjusted This global governance framework referred above existed continuously until the end of the Cold War in 1991

1.2 Governance Structure Changes and Their Characteristics

1.2.1 Structural Change Background: The End of the Cold War

In 1991, to the amazement of most observers, the Soviet Union collapsed This momentous event, which ended the ideological conflict between West and East, brought about the reshaping of the world order and its governance system The collapse of the Soviet Union not only precipitated changes in global governance without any major war but also led to the collapse of the socialist economic bloc As a result, most of the socialist countries integrated into the Western economic system, embracing the principle “market economy and democracy.” The world, with rapid globalization, gradually became a more integrated one

With the end of the Cold War in 1991, the previous bipolar world order was replaced by a brief Pax-Americana [23],a mono-hegemony centered on the United States What type of global order eventually replaces this remains

an open question One possibility is that the United States alliance system will remain the central organizing principle of the region as the “American century” is extended There are also suggestions, for instance, that the United States should create “new institutional entities organized around common democratic values, or more crudely, a China containment rationale” [107, pp 287] Another possibility is that the seemingly inexorable rise of China will reprise the Sino-centric order which existed until the 19th century [47, pp 2], perhaps in conjunction with the formation of a Eurasian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Some authors foresee a region in which Chinese power supersedes that of the United States, resulting in hegemonic transition – and possibly a conflict [128, pp 74]

Since the beginning of the 21st century, as a result of a rapid leap in economic growth, newly emerging countries such as the BRICS have appeared, forming a strong political grouping and, gradually upgrading both their economic power and their voice in the international community These trends have brought about strong pressure for the re-adjustment of global governance structures to take account of the changing relationship between the emerging and advanced countries In addition, challenging global issues like drugs, terrorism, poverty and climate change have become more and more serious Such issues could readily be solved by friendly cooperation and intensive policy coordination among various international actors However, it

is difficult to solve them in reality, as each country remains deeply attached to its sovereignty and right to address them autonomously Moreover, the recent global financial crisis triggered by the United States and Europe has increased pressure for reshaping the global economic governance system It can be said that the global balance of power begun to shift over the first decade of the 21stcentury, with the United States in relative decline, Japan and Europe in stagnation, and the so-called BRICS countries on the rise In the process of power transition, many disputes and conflicts often happen among states

1.2.2 Characteristics of Recent Global Governance Change

1.2.2.1 Transition into Multi-Polar System: Declining US and Rising China

There are many arguments on the structural change of international order

in the 21st century The world order has continuously changed with the passage of the time From the end of the World War II until the 1990s, the

basic international system was a bipolar one, the so-called “the Cold War”, an ideological competition between the US and the USSR, which took responsibility for world order and dominated various multilateral organizations such as UN, GATT, IMF, and World Bank From the 1980s to the 1990s, due to the relative weakness of the US economy and the rise of Japanese and German economic power, Washington had no alternative but to cooperate with these two powers in the process of addressing its domestic economy and handling emerging global issues From the early 1990s to the present, with the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the US, at least politically, and for a relatively short period, became the sole superpower The world thus shifted briefly to a mono-hegemonic system

However, in accordance with a rapid leap in their economic growth since the 2000s, the newly emerging countries as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have expanded their influence and voice in the international community More importantly, both China and India, have remarkably strengthened their political status in the world community World leadership, indeed, is gradually shifting to the emerging countries Indicators/World Bank, using world GDP statistics, has noted that the newly emerging countries have not only established themselves as strong political entities, but have contributed considerably to increase the total world GDP from US $22 trillion (1990) to US $72 trillion (2012) [29] Goldman Sachs forecasts that by 2015, the total GDP growth of newly emerging countries will account for 70% of the world GDP According to the OECD Development Center (4/2010), the total GDP of the Western developed countries in

comparison with that of the world as a whole declined from 70% in the 1990s

to 53% at the present time It is predicted that, by 2030, GDP of Asia will occupy 57% of that of the world GDP, and the center of the world economy will shift Asian region [50, pp 22-29]

Which country will dominate world politics in the 21st century? As mentioned above, the rise of China is not a fiction but a reality Some analysts speak of a “G-2 Era” emerging in the near future, that is to say an era in which the US and China coordinate their policies to maintain world order N Walter, in an article entitled “World Power Shifts to Emerging Countries” forecasts that from 2020 the axis of the global economy may shift to the emerging countries [118] Against this backdrop, many experts and research centers foresee that China looks set to overtake the US as the world‟s largest economy (measured by GDP at PPPs) sometime around 2020 The Citi Bank report entitled “Power Shifts, Emerging Economies and the New World Global Growth Generators Moving beyond Emerging Markets” and “BRICS” elaborates the probable shift of global economic power [21] According to the report, the US and China reached US$14.12 trillion and US$9.98 trillion of GDP respectively in 2010 (measured by GDP at PPPs USD), while in year

2030, China‟s GDP is expected to expand to US$38.49 trillion and the US to US$24 trillion respectively

However, this analysis still leaves some questions about the adjustment

of the relationship between the newly emerging countries and the Western powers There is some disagreement about whether the United States can continue to hold the position of a world superpower despite the comparative

decrease in its economic strength since the end of the Cold War Some argue that the United States has not weakened, that it can continue to maintain its role as a super power because it possesses not only enormous military strength but also soft power, as well structural power in the fields of security, manufacturing, finance, etc The article by J Petras, entitled “China: Rise,

Fall and Re-emergence as a Global Power” offers a different view: China will replace the US and become the leading world economic power over the next decade However, China has seriously lagged behind the US and Europe in aggressive war-making capacity and therefore cannot develop the same kind

of global military and political reach as its rivals [90, pp 8-9] Anyway, it is evident that China, as the second largest global economy, is likely to be one

of world leaders in the 21st century and that it will also continue try to reshape the exiting global governance system, securing its position as a strong political entity in the international community

 BRICs members are strengthening their alignment to become a new strong entity

- Organize summits and annual foreign ministers meeting since 2006

- Regularly organize finance minister and state bank presidential meeting

 World Economic Status:

- Total GDP: $ 10 trillion

- Annual Growth Rate 6.3% (developed countries 2.2%)

- Total Trade Volume: $0.6 trillion (1998)→ $4.2 trillion (2008)

- BRICs occupies 40% of total foreign exchange cover of the world

- CO2 emissions: China, the first rank (22% of world total emission), Russia and India at the third and the fourth rank each, Meanwhile United States the second rank

 Issues of Concern of BRICS:

- Reform the international finance system and organizations such as IMF

- Establish the BRICS clubs (issue of concern of China)

Source : Economist Magazine (17/4/2010)

1.2.2.2 Strengthening Regionalism: Expansion of Economic Blocks

In the post-Cold War world, regionalism is emerging as a compromise

between nationalism and internationalism in both geopolitics and economics With the rapid progress of globalization, the world is becoming

geo-Figure 1: BRICS International Status and Future Prospects

3 Changes in Global Governance Mechanism and responses

of Vietnam

pect

narrower and also deepening interdependence Moreover, the world has unified as a single market without distinctions of ideology and political system World trade has greatly expanded in size and volume World trade in goods and services reached almost $ 4.4 trillion in 2012, doubling from $2.2 trillion in 1990 Regional cooperation has also strengthened since the end of the Cold War EU, NAFTA, APEC, ASEAN and MERCOSUR have become the main regional blocs in the world economic system APEC, finding a common denominator in open regionalism, is home to 40% of the world‟s population and nearly 60% of global GDP However, this regionalism trend has slowed somewhat since the completion of the World Trade Organization

in 1995 The world has entered a period where a different style of” Doha Round” seems set to change the global trade order profoundly However,

“Doha Round negotiations remain stagnated

Since 1991, in the context of fierce competition between developed economies to promote Free Trade Agreements (FTA), regionalism has been strengthened In the future, a new FTA bloc will be formed around three axes, namely, the United States, Europe and Asia In other words, the bloc will consist of three agreements: the Transpacific Partnerships (TPP) among 12 countries including the United States, Japan and Vietnam; the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and Europe; and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) between ASEAN nations and six countries: Australia, China, India, Japan, ROK, and New Zealand In the future, the GDP of TTIP will reach US$32.3 trillion, accounting for 45% of the world‟s total; TPP‟s will reach US$27.6 trillion, equivalent to 38.4%; RCEP‟s will reach US$21.1 trillion, occupying

38% [138, pp 1]

This large FTA bloc is expected to be formed in the next 5-6 years Furthermore, being the world‟s two largest markets, the US and Europe will enhance their positions and roles as rule-setters and attempt to shift the global governance in their favour Against this background, conflicts between emerging countries and the EU and the United States are predicted to become more serious Developed countries are likely to request emerging countries like China to reform policies regarding labor, environment, intellectual property rights, etc Moreover, it is anticipated that this large FTA bloc will dominate the world trade order, while the role of WTO will be weakened

Figure 2 Trans-Pacific Partnership Countries

(Source: Congressional Research Service, www.crs.gov, CRS Report for US Congress)

If TPP and TTIP materialize, the US will reestablish its hegemony in the world trade arena [138, pp 2] Moreover, there have appeared many other regional and multinational economic entities designed to facilitate trade and investment among nations in the years ahead The formation of such a large FTA bloc will soon pose a new challenge to both Vietnamese and Korean economies

1.2.2.3 Global Issues and Limitation of UN and G8 Roles

Since the 1990s, countries with planned economies have rapidly integrated themselves, willingly or reluctantly, into the world market economic system in order to gain more benefit and interests More and more domestic social and economic issues with international impacts have emerged Interdependence and exchanges among nations have reached a level unprecedented in human history Therefore, national governments can no longer overlook the potential international impacts and the overall international context when they deal with domestic social, economic and even political issues At the same time, globalization has brought numerous challenges in today's world, giving rise to a plethora of issues, which are impossible for individual countries to solve, such as, trans-border pollution and crime There, the global issues can be categorized into four kinds: first, political and security issues such as the proliferation nuclear weapons and international terrorism; second, economic issues such as energy, water, and food shortage, financial crises and poverty relief; third, environmental issues such as pollution and global warming; and fourth, health and sanitation issues such as H.I.V, etc

These issues should be addressed urgently through friendly cooperation and intensive coordination among international actors However, the problem

is that they can only be solved if different countries and groups adopt the

“support and coexist” principle as the most important guide to action and make certain concessions on their authority and right of self-determination In the absence of international cooperation and coordination and international financial sources, a national government cannot solve these kinds of global issues The UN‟s collective security system, however, has done nothing more than support the status quo, since the dominant powers of 1945 have continued to constitute the core of this system, via permanent membership of the Security Council, the trump card of a collective security regime that has always been more virtual than real It is this “misunderstanding” of the nature

of collective security that, sixty years after the creation of the UN, contributes

to the fact that this institution, while useful and essential, is so complicated to reform [16, pp 4] Likewise, in addressing these global issues, both UN and G8 roles and functions as international organizations have become much weaker, and they have often been criticized for not acting in time

Let us look at the problems associated with three types of global issue First, the issue of global environment cannot be resolved completely if all countries do not make joint response to it According to the reports relating to the climate change, if the world economy continues to develop at the present rate, average global temperatures will increase up to 3oC by 2050 and by the year 2100 they will increase by 6-7oC [100, pp 15-20] Once the world average temperature increases by 6oC, developing countries will bear more

severe consequences than developed countries [100, pp 114] New York, Shanghai, London, and lowland regions in Red and Mekong delta in Vietnam will be flooded with sea water

Second is the issue of the global imbalance4 between developed countries and newly emerging economies during the process of overcoming global economic crisis Without any action to rectify global imbalances, they will continue to balloon and imperil future economic growth Institutions like the IMF and the Group of 20 (G-20) must play critical roles in addressing this problem

Third is the issue of poverty in under-developed countries Worldwide around 852 million people are chronically hungry due to extreme poverty, while up to 2 billion people lack food security intermittently due to varying degrees of poverty Some 17,000 children die of hunger and malnutrition related to diseases every day, which equals 6 million children who die of starvation annually [28] Unfortunately, the recent global economic crisis has had a great impact on the livelihood of the poorest people in under-developed countries across the world To resolve these global issues, the world needs

to reshape global governance system and also enhance the functions of international organizations Most of these international organizations were established in the post Second World War period and were founded by a small group of countries They made great contributions in maintaining world

4 Since 1990s, China continuously achieved surplus in transactions with U.S (30 - 40 billion USD every month), and in December, 2010, China ranked first in the world foreign exchange reserves, reaching 2.600 billion USD Besides, Japan also gains much surplus from commercial transaction with the U.S, and Germany boasts the biggest commercial surplus in Europe