Tt lats adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector of people living in the coastal area of the tien hai district, thai binh province

INTRODUCTION 1 The background of the research topic Vietnam is widely cited as one of the five countries in the world most heavily affected by climate change In recent time, we have been affected by t[.]

1 The background of the research topic

Vietnam is widely cited as one of the five countries in the

world most heavily affected by climate change In recent time, we havebeen affected by the unusual manifestations of climate change such as arise in sea levels , heat waves, turbulent storms, floods especially in coastalareas The coastal areas are most vulnerable to the impact of climatechange In spite of the limitations of the adaptive capacity of the coastalinhabitants residing in geographic areas that are vulnerable to naturaldisasters, resources are scarce to cope with climate change Moreover, theirincome is mainly from livelihood activities that are vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry

TienHai, a coastal district in the Thai Binh province with acoastline of over 23 kms has three large estuaries that flow into the sea: BaLat, Lan and Tra Ly TienHai has many advantages to develop agriculturewith these geographical characteristics With the district located next to thesea and bordered by big rivers, it faces a couple of potential risks,especially in the context that climate change is unpredictable Recently,people are continuously suffer ing from the effects of extreme weatherphenomena such as storms, floods and tropical depressions Specifically,many strong tropical storms destroyed mangrove forests, coastalecosystems affecting the agriculture and fisheries of the locals Severe andprolonged exposure to extreme cold in Thai Binh increased the frequency

of natural disasters and extreme weather, which has directly affectedagricultural, forestry and fisheries production Global warming causesinsects to transmit widespread diseases that affect livestock in many placesand this cause anxiety among farmers for they cannot be assured when itcomes to production development It also results in the gradual growth ofplants and that too has affected the harvest season

Active adaptation to the negative impacts of climate change is animportant and necessary task of the farmers With the dissertation title

being: "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector of People Living in the Coastal Area of the Tien Hai district, Thai Binh Province", the researcher would like to find out more on the activities that

farmers in TienHai coastal area apply in adapting to climate changeimpacts Moreover, this work also explores kind of resources they mobilizeduring the adapting process to climate change in their local communities

2 Research purposes

The purpose of the research is to study the theoretical and practicalbasis in clarifying adaptaion measures and factors influence on adaptationmeasures choices to climate change of people living in coastal area Theresults of the research are the development of programs that would topropose solutions in enhancing the efficiency of adaptation to climatechange in coastal areas.

3 Research tasks

(1) Understanding the impacts of climate change on cultivation,animal animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries in coastal areas of theTienHai district; (2) Exploring adaptation measures to climate change ofpeople living in coastal in Tien Hai district in the fields of cultivation,animal animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries; (3) Clarifying factorsdetermining the adaptation measure choices of households living in coastalarea of the TienHai district

4 Research subjects, objects and research scope

4.1 Research subjects: Adaptation to climate change in the

agricultural sector of people living in coastal area of Tien Hai district, ThaiBinh province

4.2 Research objects:

Research objects are households living coastal areas in TienHaidistrict, Thai Binh involved in the production, cultivation, animal animalhusbandry, aquaculture and fisheries The officials of district, communeand village living in TienHai district, Thai Binh province were selected for

in depth interviews in order to gain in depth information to answer researchquestions

4.3 Research scope:

- Scope of content: households’adaptation in cultivation, animal

husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries

- Spatial scope: two selected coastal villages in Tien Hai: DongHoang and Nam Thinh

- Scope of time: from 2010 to 2017

5 Research questions, research hypotheses, research variables and framework.

5.1 Research questions

Question 1: Through the experience of coastal residents in TienHai

district, how does climate change affect cultivation, animal husbandry,aquaculture and fisheries based on people’s evaluation living in the coastalareas?

Question 2: How do people living in coastal areas in TienHai district

adapt to the effects of climate change in cultivation, animal husbandry,aquaculture and fisheries?

Question 3: What factors affect the choices of adaptation measures

to climate change of people living in the coastal areas of the TienHaidistrict?

5.2 Research hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Climate change results in extreme climatic weather

events such as storms, floods, unusually high temperature and salineintrusion that negatively affects the cultivation, animal husbandry,aquaculture and fisheries of households in Tien Hai coastal area It haschallenged the farming process, reduced productivity and production

Hypothesis 2: People living in the TienHai coastal area based on

consideration of different types of capital in the community, such aseconomic capital (family economic conditions), human capital (age,education), social capital (relatives, friends, etc.) are introduced to differentadaptation measures to climate change in cultivation, animal husbandry,aquaculture and fisheries such as changing production technique anddiversifying livelihoods

Hypothesis 3: Household and community characteristics such as

household size, economic capital (family economic condition), humancapital (age, education), social capital (human network relatives, friends,etc.) are factors that affect adaptation measures choice to climate change ofpeople living in Tien Hai coastal areas

5.3 Research variables

Independent variables

- Number of generations living in household

- Household size: is measured by the number of people in thehousehold, the number of members in working age, the number ofmembers in working age has a job

- Household's economic condition: is the current economiccondition of the household comparing to the others in village (poor /average / well-off)

- Economic type: pure agriculture, mixed (both agricultural andnon-agricultural)

- Participate in climate change training courses: yes / no

- Gain more experiences from others: yes / no

- Business cooperation with other households: yes / no

- Dependent variables:

Adaptation activities of people to climate change in cultivation,animal husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries These adaptation activities areclassified into three models/groups:

- Change production technique/methods

- Transfer to another livelihood activities

- Accept damages

- Intervention variables

+ Social – economic conditions of localities

+ Viewpoints of the Party, the State on climate change adaptation

fisheries

- Change production technique/methods

- Transfer to another livelihood activities

- Gain more experience from others

- Business cooperation with other

6 Theoretical and practical meanings of the dissertation

6.1 Theoretical meanings

The theoretical meaning of the thesis is shown in two aspects.Firstly, the research provides a new approach - that is the sociologicalperspective to climate change adaptation of coastal habitants As basis, itwill contribute to the expansion of the scientific – based knowledge on therelationship between climate change and specific local communities.Secondly, the research applies sociological theoretical perspectives toanalyze and interpret qualitative and quantitative data that were collectedfrom the field trip Hence, this result will help in generating, at a certainlevel, some points of view in the theoretical aspect of the adaptive process

of coastal habitants to climate change

of people living in the coastal areas These recommendations are not onlyuseful for managers in practical activities but also useful for local people inthe process of adapting to climate change

7 Structure of the dissertation

The dissertation consists of three main parts: introduction, contentand conclusion Aside from the introduction, conclusions and appendices,the dissertation has four chapters Chapter 1 is Literature review Chapter 2presents the rationale, study area, and research methodology Chapter 3 andchapter 4 clarify the Status of climate change in the studied area, the impact

of climate change on cultivation, animal husbandry, aquaculture andfisheries These two chapters also show how local people adapt to climatechange in in cultivation, husbandry, aquaculture and fisheries as well as theinfluence factors to these adaptive ways

Chapter 1 LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CULTIVATION, ANIMAL HUSBANDARY

1.1.1 Adaptation to climate change in cultivation

It was showed from the conducted studies that: Climate change has

a serious affect on people’s cultivation activities such as reducingcultivated areas, reducing productivity and production, spreading of disease

in trees and crop failure In response to these affects, farmers introduceddifferent adaptation mesuares The main adaptation measures are changingtype of trees, changing farming techniques, changing crop structure orshifting to other production activities such as aquaculture, working as hiredlabor in other industries

1.1.2 Adaptation to climate change in animal husbandary

The conducted studies show that climate change resulted inextreme weather events also cause many losses to livestock productionsuch as damaging infrastructure, causing death or or gradual growth forlivestock Climate change also threatens the environment, limits the supply

of food and drinks, reduces resistance and spreads disease for livestock Tomitigate these damages, households focus on changing breeds, changingfarming techniques, investing in food and disease prevention, reducing theproduction size and finding non-farm jobs to work

1.2 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES

1.2.1 Adaptation to climate change in aquaculture

Conducted studies show that climate change goes along withincreasing extreme weather has been heavily influenced on aquaculture.Therefore, coastal people have found many different ways to adapt to thissituation Adaptation methods focus mainly on farming techniques,changing breeds, changing farming structure, upgrading farminginfrastructure

1.2.2 Adaptation to climate change in fisheries

Conducted studies show that with unpredictable changes of theweather and over-exploitation in fishery leading to the decline in near-shoreseafood resources Hence, fishermen must introduce many adaptingmeasures like by watching weather forecasts so they will be aware andwell-informed as this is a basis for planning their future fishing Thetraditional fishing experience in the past is no longer appropriate to the

current sudden changes of the weather Some families with highereconomic conditions have to change fishing positions, or equip moreadvanced fishing equipment and improve fishing ship’s capacity.

1.3 Factors influence on adapting to climate change

1.3.1 Demographic factors

Many conducted studies show the relationship between socialdemographic factors and adaptation activities These demographiccharacteristics of households decide to adjust or select adaptive activitiessuch as gender, age and education levels

1.3.2 Social capital factors

Many studies show the importance of social capital factors such asnetworks of friends, neighbors and relatives in supporting each other bothphysically and mentally in adaptive activities

1.4 Some conclusions were draw from literature review

The literature review helps the authors to apply and makes use thepast researches as it helps to explore and exploit the theoretical andpractical gaps in order to bring a sociological approach to climate changeadaptation Specifically, the dissertation will explore the effects of climatechange and adaptation measure of farmers to climate change, how socialfactors (social resources) affect on choosing adaptive measures In addition,the dissertation also explores how the social network of people is utilized inthe adaptation process

Chapter 2 THEORETICAL BASIS, PRACTICE AND RESEARCH METHODS 2.1 BASIC STUDY CONCEPTS

2.1.2 Adaptation to climate change

Dissertation base on definition of The Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (2001): adaptation to climate change as adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

From this definition, the dissertation gave 3 adaptation models:

- Change techniques/ measures include: changing seeds / breeds,changing seasonal calendar, changing fishing areas, changing techniques /production methods

- Transfer/move to other livelihood activities: moving to otherindustries, moving to other localities,

- Accept damages: "Do nothing" or "Do not give any adaptationmeasures"

2.1.3 Community

Communities are people living in defined geographical areas, sharingcommon interests and supporting each other, sharing common values,norms and benefits together

2.1.4 Community – based adaptation

In this study, the author uses the concept of IIED: Community-basedadaptation to climate change is the process of community plays a key role,based on capacity, knowledge, needs and priorities Community priorities

to empower people to plan, and respond to the affects of climate change

2.1.5 Adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity reflects the ability of a system or society toregulate or respond to climate change in order to achieve three objectives:(i) reduce vulnerability caused by climate change, (ii) mitigating possibledamages, and (iii) taking advantage of new opportunities from climatechange

2.1.6 Livelihood and sustainable livelihood

According to Chambers & Conway (1991): Livelihoods includecapacity, assets (reserves, resources, needs, and access) and neededactivities to ensure the means of subsistence: Livelihoods are sustainableonly when they can cope with and recover from shocks, maintain orimprove capacity and assets, and provide sustainable livelihoodopportunities for future generations; and contribute net benefits to otherlivelihoods at the local or global level, in the short and long term

2.2 THEORETICAL APPROACHES IN RESEARCH

2.2.1 Adaptation to climate change from sustainable livelihood framework approach (DFID’s)

According to this framework, people who live and survive in thecontext of vulnerability, they normally face shocks, risks, irregularities.These things directly affect their livelihood and life Therefore, toovercome and ensure that every household must have a livelihood strategybased on the available resources in certain local socio-economic and policy

contexts Using DFID's approach, the research will focus on understandingand analyzing the way people introduced types of capital in the localcontext to cope with the weather and introduce livelihood strategies toadapt to that climate change.

2.2.2 Social network theory

Using the theory and social network approach in adaptation toclimate change to identify types of social relations that individuals seek toinformation exchange.and learning or finding ways to support each other inadaptation For households in general and coastal households in the studyarea in particular, social networks are relations of relatives, neighbors,friends, acquaintances, governments, socio-political organizations and peergroups This network of relations is both a spiritual support and resourcescan be utilized in the process of adapting to climate change Through thesenetworks, households can learn to exchange information, improveknowledge, skills, or exchange and mobilize resources

2.2.3 Theory of rational choice

The theory of rational choice assumes that people always actdeliberately to think and use resources in a rational way to achieve the bestresults It means, before making a decision, people often put it on scale tomeasure and calculate the advantageous face Since then, based on eachsituation and their own conditions to take action or not Applying thetheory of rational choice helps the author to orient and explain thehouseholds’ behavior in choosing the adaptive methods To face to affects

of climate change, households must consider, choose, and calculate theappropriate forms of how to maximize their interests based on their owncapabilities

2.3 RESEARCH AREA CHARACTERISTICS

2.3.1 Geographical - natural conditions

The topography of the district is gradually tilted from the Northeast

to the Southwest, shaped like a basin with two clear areas: lowland in theinterior and high land in the coastal area Tien Hai has an advantagegeographical position and resources on the surface, in-ground and offshore,facilitating the development of a diversified economy

2.3.2 Socio-economic conditions

The district has an important strategic position in politics, economy,defense security and has strengths in agricultural production In recent

years, the economic growth rate has increased significantly Specifically,agricultural and fisheries production has increased rapidly in recent years,the aquaculture area and the boat number has increased rapidly in qualityand quantity.

2.3.3 Climate change in Tien Hai district

Climate change and its manifestations in TienHai district such asstorms, floods, droughts, floods, inundation and saline intrusion is takingplace complicatedly and unpredictably Therefore, plants and livestock inthe research area seriously affected These causes challenges to the lives ofpeople

2.4 RESEARCH METHODS

2.4.1 Analysis of available documents

To get more information, knowledge, dissertation author analysisand study the content of documents related to the current situation, impactsand activities to respond to climate change such as: articles, books,newspapers, reports; statistical reports of provinces - districts – communes

2.4.2 Observation

To have more completed and accurate information, the study usedobservations to explore how climate change has been taking place,household’s livelihoods and how people adapt to climate change

Step 2: In-depth interviews are conducted during the process ofcollecting quantitative data in order to collect more information such asreasons, causes and purposes of adaptation activities

Step 3: In-depth interviews are conducted after collecting andanalyzing quantitative information

In this stage, in-depth interviews help to explain and demonstratethe collected quantitative data This helps to analyze and explain morespecifically

The object of in-depth interviews includes households, commune-village officials

district-2.4.4 Questionnaire survey

In order to provide data for the dissertation, the study conducted astructured questionnaire survey for households involved in cultivation /animal husbandry / aquaculture / fisheies Specifically, questionnaires aregiven to those who directly participate in the above tasks in the household

in order to collect practical information aiming to gain the set forthrequirement contents The questionnaires will address the followingproblems: impacts of climate change on livelihood activities through theexperiences of local people, forms of livelihood activities to respond toclimate change, resources mobilized in the response process

2.4.5 Sample size and sampling method

Geographic characteristics of selected sample

Tien Hai consists of 8 coastal communes: Dong Hai, Dong Long,Dong Hoang, Dong Minh, Nam Cuong, Nam Thinh, Nam Hung, Nam Phu,with an estimated number of 11,745 households Their main livelihoodactivities are agricultural related to the sea are, including: cultivation,animal animal husbandry, aquaculture and fishing

n = is the sample size

z = distribution value: with 95% confidence level, z value is 1.96

p = is the percentage estimated of the population (assuming p =0.5)

Phase 2: From these two communes, the author makes a sample list of eachcommune:

Dong Hoang Commune has about 1234 households, includingseven hamlets: Bach Long, Chi Trung, Dong Hoang, Hai Long, My Duc,Tan Lac, Vu Xa The population among villages is relatively equal innumber (author used excel sofware to make list,this list is arrangedaccording to the name of the household head and following alphabeticalorder of each commune, then connecting the list of each hamlet asfollowing: Bach Long, Chi Trung, Dong Hoang, Hai Long, My Duc, TanLac, Vu Xa).

Nam Thinh commune: about 1712 households, including 5hamlets: Quang Thinh, Dong Lac, Hop Chau, Thien Chau, Thien Tuong.The population between villages is relatively equal in number The samplelist of Nam Thinh Commune was made similar to Dong Hoang Commune

The dissertation sampling list is the sample list of these twocommunes connected together (linked from the first household to the lasthousehold of Nam Thinh commune connecting with the first household tothe last household of Dong Hoang commune)

Households chosen based on the jump k = N / n = (2946/400) = 7Selecting the first household of Nam Thinh commune to study,every seven households in the list choose 1 researcher until enough samplesize

2.4.6 Data analyzing and processing method

Data processing

Quantitative data was collected from questionnaires then wereanalyzed and processed using SPSS 16.0 on the computer

Data analyzing

The study focused on analyzing the following contents:

 Influence of climate change on people's production activities: inthis section, the study help to understand affects of climate changemanifestations on production activity (cultivation, animal husbandry,aquaculture and fisheries) through indicators developed for each of thesefields

Adaptation activities of people in each production field to response

to the impacts of climate change: The study focused on analyzing theactivities introduced by majority, understanding the correlation betweenadaptive activities with the household resources

To explore the factors that influence on the selection of adaptationactivities In order to gain this, the study uses correlation analysis withverification and logistic regression models of relevant factors, this