Nam 1957, My cho rang che do Pahlavi dii tin tudng de cd the ciing Israel hgp thanh hai tru cdt cho chinh sach ddi ngoai cua My d Trung Ddng, nen da quyet dinh ciing cd cac ddng minh nay
Trang 1cuoc KHUNG HORNG HM NHRN IRRN (2001 - 2008)
vA THni DO cun CHnu nu
PGS.TS Nguyen Van Tan
D^i hpc Khoa hpc - Dai hpc Hue
Ths Tran Ngoc VT
Tru&ng THPT so 3 Qudng Trach
1 Khai quat chuong trinh h^t nhan
Iran trudc khung hoang
Chuong trinh hat nhan cua Iran bat dau
dudi thai vua Mohammad Reza Pahlavi,
ngudi dugc Anh - My giiip siic quay trd lai
nam quyen sau cudc dao chinh 1953 lat dd
Chinh phil dan cir cua Tbu tudng
Mohammed Mossadegh Nam 1957, My cho
rang che do Pahlavi dii tin tudng de cd the
ciing Israel hgp thanh hai tru cdt cho chinh
sach ddi ngoai cua My d Trung Ddng, nen da
quyet dinh ciing cd cac ddng minh nay bang
viec chuyen giao cdng nghe hat nhan trong
khudn khd "Chuang trinh nguyen tir vi hda
binh " ciia My Nam 1973, cudc khiing hoang
nang lugng da mang lai ngudn thu nhap Idm
cho Iran, vdi ngudn tai chinh ddi dao cho
phep Iran day manh chuong trinh hat nhan
(Sau nam 1975, sd vdn dau tu cho ITnh vuc
hat nhan len 1 ty USD)
De thuc hien chuang trinh nay, Tehran
hgp tae vdi Due, Phap, Thuy Dien vdi eac
hgp ddng tri gia 10 ty USD de xay dung eac
nha may dien nguyen tir Kenh nhap khau
urani dugc thiet lap vdi Uc va Nam Phi Liic
dd, chuang trinh hat nhan Iran phat triln
tuomg ddi thuan lgi bdi chinh sach ngan chan
s\r xam nhap ciia Lien Xd vao Trung Ddng
Clia My
Cudc Cach mang Hdi giao (thang 2 nam 1979) da day quan he My Iran tir ddng minh chien lugc trd thanh ke thu Chinh vi vay chuang trinh hat nhan ma My img ho va
giiip do Iran da trd thanh muc tieu de My
ngan chan Cac ddi tac cua Iran lan lugt riit khdi cac du an hat nhan cua nudc nay
Nam 1983, nha cam quyen Iran tuyen
bd ndi lai chuang trinh hat nhan dang bi gian doan Song Iran gap rat nhieu khd khan khi
dd bdi cac cudc nem bom ciia Iraq vao cac
CO sd bat nhan eua nudc nay Mat khac, Iran
cd qua it cac nha khoa hgc De khac phuc tinh trang tren, Iran da giri hang ngan sinh vien ra nudc ngoai dao tao va khuyin khich cac nba khoa hgc cii trd vl Ddng thdi, Iran tim kilm doi tac mdi - la Pakistan Tir nam
1984, cac nha lanh dao hai nudc da tiln hanh thao luan xung quanh cdng nghe hat nhan va chuong trinh hat nhan cua Iran Sau khi chiln tranh vdi Iraq kit thuc (1988), Iran lai
tim kilm cac ddi tac khac dk tai khdi dong
lai chuang trinh hat nhan, nhung chi cd Nga
va Trung Qudc sin sang diu tu nhim tim
Trang 2Quda UlLung, luoAng, kal nliuti 3^an I I
kiem khdng ehi lgi nhuan kinh tl ma ca lgi
ich chinh tri
Thang 3 nam 1990, van ban dau tien ve
viec phuc hdi nha may dien nguyen tir
Busbehr dugc ky ket vdi Lien Xd Vi nhilu
li do, mai tdi ngay 8/1/1995, hgp ddng chinh
thiic giira Nga vdi Iran mdi dugc ky ket
Theo dd, Nga se xay dung cho Iran bai td
may phat dien bat nlian nudc nang, cdng suat
915 MW, 2.000 tan uranium tu nhien va
hang nam dao tao cho Iran 15 chuyen gia hat
nhan Tir nam 1991, Iran da cd hang loat hgp
ddng mua urani, cac tbiet bi lam nudc nang
tir Trung Qudc Ngoai ra, Iran cdn tim each
phat trien chuang trinh hat nhan cua minh
thdng qua hgp tac bi mat vdi Trieu Tien
Trong hai nam 1993 - 1994, dai dien ciia
•^ f
Iran da thuc hien nhieu chuyen cdng du tdi
Binh Nbuong Trong cac thda thuan dat
dugc, bai ben ddng y hgp tac va phat trien
hat nhan va Iran se cung cap 500 trieu USD
cbo qua trinb hgp tac dd'
Trudc viec chinh quyen Tehran tiep tuc
thai do thil dich ddi vdi My va theo dudi
chuong trinh hat nhan, ngay 7/5/1995, Tdng
thdng Bill Clinton da chinh thiie ky lenh
"cdm van kinh te quan trgng, mdi" ddi vdi
f
Iran Nam sau (ngay 5/8/1996), Qudc hdi My
thdng qua dao luat trimg phat Iran va Libya
(ILSA - Iran and Libya Sanction Act), theo
f f
dd My tuyen bd se phat bat ki edng ty nao
diu tu tir 40 trieu USD trd len vao eae du an
diu lira va khi ddt d Iran va Libya
' TTXVN (2008), My cdo buoc hop tdc qudn su giira
Bdc Triiu Tien vd Iran, TLTKTG
Tuy dimg trudc nhieu khd khan, song chuang trinh hat nhan ciia Iran van tilp tuc tien trien Den cudi nhirng nam 1990, Iran da phat trien mang ludi tren dudi 20 co sd hat nhan nam pban tan tren khap lanh thd
Tir nam 1998, quan he hai nudc cd dau hieu dugc cai thien khi My chu truong binh thudng hda quan be vdi Iran Thang 5/1998
My tuyen bd biiy bd lenh trirng phat doi vdi cac cdng ty nudc ngoai dau tu vao nganh nang lugng ciia Iran Nhung vu khung bd 11/9/2001 vao nudc My da lam mdi quan be bai nudc tdi te them, khi muc tieu trong chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia My la chdng kbiing
/ f t
bd qudc te, va bg ludn cao budc Iran dang ngam ngam ung ho cac td chiic khung bd chdng lai nudc My va bi mat phat trien vii khi bat nhan
2 Khiing hoang hat nhan Iran (2001 2008)
Van de hat nhan Iran ndi len khi ban bao cao (9/2001) ciia Co quan Tinh bao Trung uong My (CIA) td cao Iran sd hiru mot trong nhiing chuong trinh bat nhan de san xuat vii khi Ngoai ra My cdn cho rang Iran dang tim kiem cdng nghe lien quan den ten lira tir mdt
sd nudc, trong dd cd Nga va Trung Qudc Tir day, hat nhan trd thanh tam diem cang thang trong quan he giiia My va Iran Cang thang gia tang khi My lien tiep cd nhirng tuyen bd the hien sir thii dich Trong Thdng diep Lien bang ngay 29/1/2002, Tdng thdng My da xep Iraq, Iran va Bac Trieu Tien vao cai gpi la
"true ma quy", la nhiing ke tbii kbdng "dpi trdi ehung" vdi My Ngay 20/9/2002, chinh
Trang 312 NGHIEN CLfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N ° l 1 (134).20T 1
quyin Bush cdng bd Chien luge An ninh
qudc gia mdi Theo dd My tyr gianh lay
quyen danh ddn pbii dau khdng khoan
nhugng, khdng cham tre, d miic dg t^n khde
nbat neu cd the, ke ca viec sir dung vu khi
hat nban, cho dii ddi tugng chiu ddn pbii dau
dd la cdc nhdm khimg bd, cac qudc gia ma
My budc tdi la "bao trg khiing bo" cdc qudc
gia "ddc tai" san xuat va tang trir vii khi giet
f f
ngudi hang loat hay bat ki cudng qudc nao,
the lire nao dam thach thirc dia vj lanh dao
the gidi cua My Iran da nam vao tam ngam
trong chien lugc danh ddn phu dau cua My
Thang 12/2002, My td cao Iran bi mat
phat trien chuong trinh vii khi bat nban, va
cdng bd cac biic anh ve tinh ve hai co sd bat
nban dang dugc xay dung d Natanz va Arak
Nham giam bdt sir nghi ki va siic ep cua
cdng ddng qudc te ve chuang trinh hat nhan
ciia minh, ngay 11/3/2003, Iran da cbo phep
gidi truyen thdng dugc tiep can, quan sat cac
nha may dien hat nhan dau tien cua nudc nay
dang trong qua trinh xay dimg tai tbi tran
Busbehr d mien Nam
Trudc cudc khiing hoang hat nhan d
Iran va sir that bai trong viec ngan cbSn cac
hanh ddng dom phuang ciia My, de bao ve
lgi ich cua minh ciing nhu nang cao vai trd
' f r
cua minh trong eae mdi quan he qudc te
trudc My, thang 8/2003, Dire, Anh, Phap
(hay cdn ggi ia EU3) da de nghi Iran tien
hanh dam phan ve chuang trinh hat nhan cua
nude nay Din thang 10 nam 2003, Due,
Anh, Phap da ky vdi Iran mdt thda thuan,
theo dd ap dung nghi dinh thu bd sung trong
Hiep udc Khdng phd bien vii khi bat nhan
(NPT), dong thdi cbo phep Ccs quan Nang
lugng nguyen tir Quoc tl (IAEA) thuc hien cdc cugc thanh sat bat ngd tdi cac co sd hat nhan ciia nha nudc Hdi giao Dieu dd cho thiy Iran muon thodt khdi cudc khimg hoang
va tinh the bi cd lap
De chung td chuong trinb bat nban cua minh pbuc vu muc dicb dan su, lam an long cdng ddng qudc tc ngay 18/12/2003 Iran chinh tbiic ky vdn kien bd sung Hiep dinh NPT Qua dd, Iran da thuc hien thanh cdng
ke hoan binb chien lugc tranh mdt cupc chien tire tbi khdng can sire vdi My theo kith ban Iraq, cung nhu tir bd chuong trinh hat nhan vd dieu kien gidng Libya
Thdng 4/2004, cac nba lanh dao Iran de nghj thuang thuyet true tiep vdi My \e van
de bat nhan, nhung de nghi nay ciing bi Tdng thdng My George W Bush tir chdi De giam sire ep tir My, ngay 14/ir2004 Iran da ky hiep dinh vdi 3 nudc chau Au la Anh Phap
Diic vdi ndi dung: Iran da chap nban ngirng tam thdi viec lam giau uranium \ i mudn mot hiep dinh ve lau dai se cd dugc nhirng cam ket ve van de an ninh Vi cam kit nay bi Washington tir choi, nen Iran lai tilp tue chuang trinh lam giau uranium
f ^
Cudi nam 2004, My gap nhieu khd khan khi sa lay trong hai cudc chiln tranh Afghanistan va Iraq, trong khi hai nba cung cip hat nhan cho Iran la Trung Qudc va Nga xich lai gin nhau, hinh thanb thi ddi trpng mdi trong can can quyin lire toan ciu Vi the ehinb tri duge cune co kliiln Iran canp them
Trang 4^ju&4L khung, ftaa^tg, fiat nhatt '3¥€UL 13
eung ran, day cudc khung hoang hat nhan len
miic nguy hilm Thdng 2/2005, Tdng thdng
Iran Mohammed Khatami tuyen bd Iran se
khdng bao gid tir bd cdng nghe hat nhan vi
muc dich bda binh Nga ung hd Iran va ky
thda thuan cung cap nang lugng cho Id phan
ling d Busbehr
Trudc thdi do cung ran cua Iran, mdt lan
nira My cdng khai len dn Iran va ddi thay ddi
che dp Nguyen Ngoai trudmg My
CondoUeezza Rice ndi tai Qudc hdi My rang,
nudc dd la mdt trong sdu "tien ddn eua nen
chuyen che" ma My "mudn thay ddi che dp"
(Cuba, Myanmar, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Bac
Trieu Tien va Iran) Khdng chiu lui budc
trudc My, ngay 15/5/2005, Qudc hdi Iran
thdng qua "Luat Sir dung ky thuat bat nban
cho muc dicb dan sir" Luat nay ddc tbiic
chinh phu khdi ddng lai boat ddng' lam giau
uranium, trao quyen cho chinh phu sir dung
nang lugng hat nhan cho muc dich hda binh
Quylt tam theo dudi chuang trinh hat nhan
cua Iran dugc nang len khi dng Mabmoud
Ahmadinejad, ngudi theo dudng ldi ciing ran
r r f
chdng phuang Tay gianh chien thang tai
cudc biu cir Tdng thdng Iran vao thdng
6/2005 Ciing tir day quan he hai nudc budc
vao giai doan eang thang mdi
Thdng 8/2005, Tdng thdng G.Bush dua
ra tuyen bd dau tien trong hang loat tuyen bd
ring My se khdng loai trir kha nang tan
cdng vii lire ddi vdi Iran khi eao huge Iran
dang tim each phdt trien vu khi hat nhan
Ddp lai, Iran tuyen bd sdn sang nit khdi Hiep
udc Khdng phd biln vQ khi hat nhan va se tir
f r r
bd tat ca cde cam ket lien quan den nang lugng hat nhan trong trudng hgp My tan cdng cdc muc tieu hat nhan ciia bp
Mdi quan be thii dich giira bai qudc gia tiep tuc dugc nang len d mirc cao, khi Tdng thdng My Bush md ta Iran la mdt ddi thii cdng khai tuyen bd "sir thii dich tuyet ddi'"
vdi My: "Nhu Al Qaeda vd nhirng ke cue
doan ddng Sunni, chinh quyen Iran ed nhirng muc tieu ro rdng Hg mudn xua dudi My ra khdi viing ndy, tieu diet Israel vd thdng tri viing Trung Ddng md rgng Chinh quyen Iran vd nhitng ten dgi dien khung bd cua hg
da the hien su sdn sdng giet ngudi My vd gid day, Chinh quyen Iran dang ed gdng tim cdch ed duge vQ khi hgt nhdn "
Ngay 11/4/2006, Tdng thdng Iran M
Ahmadinejad tuyen bd Iran da dat dugc budc phdt trien quan trpng trong chuang trinh phat
trien cdng nghe hat nhan cua minh va "Gia
nhdp edu lgc bg cdc nu&c ed cdng nghe hgt nhdn Ddy Id ket qud cita su khdng eu cita Iran Dua tren cdc quy dinh qudc te ehiing tdi se tiep tuc eon du&ng eiia minh cho den khi ehiing tdi cd urani ldm gidu tren quy md cdng nghiep " Hon the nira, Iran canh bdo se
f f '
cat diit cdc mdi quan be vdi IAEA neu nudc nay phai ehju them cdc lenh trimg phat ciia phucmg Tay
Ngay 8/5/2006, Tdng thdng Iran Mabmoud Ahmadinejad da giri mdt birc tbu dai 18 trang cho Tdng thdng G.Bush, de nghi tien hanh mdt cudc ddi thoai toan dien ve
^ TTXVN (2007), Chinh sdch Iran ciia chinh quyen Bush (phin I), TLTKCN
Trang 514 NGHIEN cau CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°11 (134).20n
mpi bat ddng giiia hai nude, bay td lap
trudng cua Iran khdng chi thuang lugng vdi
My ve van de chuang trinh hat nhan cua
minh, ma cdn bao gdm ca tinh hinh khu vue
Trung Ddng; Hay ndi rgng born, Iran muon
thuong lugng vdi My vl moi quan he giiia
the gidi Hdi gido va My De nghi ndy ciing
bi chinh quyen Bush bdc bd
Den lugt minh, ngdy 31/5/2006,
Washington da de ngbj tbam gia true tiep
vao cdc cudc dam phdn ve chuong trinh hat
nban cua Iran cimg vdi cdc qudc gia chau Au
vdi dieu kien Tehran phai ngimg ngay viec
lam gidu urani Day dugc coi la mdt thay ddi
quan trpng trong chinh sdch ciia My ddi vdi
Iran Ngay ngay bdm sau (1/6/2006), Iran
cho biet san sang ddi thoai vdi My, song lai
tir chdi ngimg lam giau urani
Ngay 6/6/2006, cdc nudc My, Nga,
Trung Qudc, Anh, Phdp, Diic da trao cho
Iran mdt ban de nghi yeu cau Iran ngimg
toan bd cdc boat ddng lam giau uranium de
bat dau cac cudc thuang lugng thuc sir Iran
hoan nghenh va cho rang nhiing de nghi dd
chiia dimg nhirng yeu td tieh cue, va thdng
bdo se tra ldi chi tiet vao ngay 22/8/2006
Thdi ban tra ldi ma Iran dua ra chua bet thi
ngay 31/7/2006, Hdi ddng Bao an Lien hgp
f f \
qudc thdng qua Nghi quyet 1696, yeu cau
f
Iran ngimg tat ca mgi boat ddng lien quan
den viec lam giau urani trudc ngay 31/8,
ddng thdi de dga se dp dung cdc bien phdp
trimg phat ve kinh te va ngoai giao chdng lai
nudc Cdng hda Hdi giao nay
Nhim gia tang sire ep vdi Iran, ngay 23/12/2006, Hdi ddng Bdo an tilp tue thong qua Nghi quylt 1737, yeu cau Iran ngimg ngay cdc boat dgng lam giau urani va thit chat cdc bien phdp trimg phat EU da thuc thi nghi quylt nay bing cdcb phe chuan danh sdch cdc cd nban va td chirc lien quan den chuang trinh hat nban ciia Iran de pbong toa tai san Dac biet, vdi Ngbj quyet nay, Iran bi cim van ddi vdi viec mua vii khi vd cdc nudc Idn ban che viec ban vii khi cho nudc nay Nghi quyet thii bai de ra thai ban 60 ngay cbo Iran de ngimg lam giau uranium, neu khdng se bj trimg phat cimg ran hom trong Nghi quyet thu ba Ngay lap tiic Iran cd hanh ddng trd diia vao ngdy 27/12/2006 Qudc hoi Iran ra quyet djnh ban che hgp tdc vdi IAEA, ddng thdi keu ggi Chinh pbii da\ nhanh chuong trinh hat nban Trudc thai dp phdt la cua Iran, ngay 24/3/2007 mdt lan niia Hoi ddng Bao an Lien hgp qudc ra Nghi quyet
1747, md rdng lenh trimg phat \a dp dat lenh cam xuat khau vu khi ciia Iran
Khdng dimg lai d ldi ndi, chinh quyen Bush gia tang siic ep bing viec tang cudng lire lugng quan sir khi dua nhdm tau tin cdng ciia hai quan My do tau san bay Nimitz v Stennis dan dau den viing Vinh (vao cuoi thdng 3/2007), de dga lap lai kich ban Iraq Tuy nhien, ban than ngudi My ciing khdng mudn diy tinh hinh vugt khdi tim kilm soat
Dl giam tinh trang ddi diu kbdng khoan nhugng vdi Iran, phdt bilu tai Vien Qudc te Hoang gia Anh ngay 2/5/2007 Thir trudng Ngoai giao My Nicholas Burns ndi ring My mudn "If '
Trang 6-\Qud^ khungiiodng hat.nhan 3^€LtL 15
ilran sau gan 30 nam bang gid, va hy vgng
5 tien trinh nay se bat dau trong tuan tai Hdi
fnghi Thiic day hda binh tai Iraq Ddp lai,
thdng 6/2007, Iran ddng y ndi lai dam phdn
va cbo phep IAEA thanh sdt cdc ca sd hat
1 nhan Budc di nay khdng chi la nudc cd
chien thuat nham tri hoan mdt lenh trimg
phat mdi eua Hdi ddng Bdo an ciing nhu kha
i nang My tan cdng ma mang thdng diep ve
viec Iran cd the dimg lai tai ngudmg lam giau
uranium dan sir
Khimg hoang leo thang vao 8/2007, khi
IAEA cho biet han tiep tuc theo dudi boat
ddng lam giau uranium tai nha mdy Natanz,
vdi khoang 2.000 mdy ly tam boat ddng Dau
hieu mdt cudc dung dau quan su giiia phuomg
Tay va han sap nd ra khi Ngoai trudng Phap
7 t
Bemard Kouehner khang dinh: The gidi phai
7 t f f
"chuan bi cho mdt tinh hudng xau nhat"
Trong khi dd, tai khda hpp thii 62 cua Dai Hdi
ddng Lien hgp qudc ngay 25/9/2007 tai New
York, Tdng thdng M.Ahmadinejad thdng bdo,
nudc dng da dat dugc trinh dp san xuat nhien
lieu pban bach cho muc dich hda binh d quy
md cdng nghiep va tuyen bd chuong trinh hat
nhan cua nudc nay la hoan todn hda binh va
minh bach, cdn cdc bien phdp trimg phat cua
Hdi ddng Bao an Lien hgp qudc la bat hgp
phap Cung ngay, Ha vien My thdng qua du
luat xilt chat cac bien phdp trimg phat han bao
gdm cim hgp tdc hat nhan dan su vdi cdc nudc
ung hg Iran, khdi dgng cam van tai chmh toan
ciu Ddng thdi, Thugng vien My cQng xep luc
lugng Ve binh Cach mang Hdi giao Iran vao
danh sdch cac td cbiic khung bd, dgn dudng
7 f \
cho Tdng thdng G.Bush toan quyen phat lenh tin edng Iran Ngay 2/10/2007, Tdng thdng G.Bush yeu eau Bg Qudc phdng tbu hep dien cdc mue tieu khdng kich d Iran neu nd ra chien tranh tir 2.000 xudng 1.200, tap trung vao cdc
CO sd hat nhan va lire lugng Ve binh Cdch mang Khdng chiu liii budc trudc My, ngay 29/9/2007, Qudc hdi Iran ra nghi quyet liet CIA va quan dpi My vao cdc td chirc kbiing
bd Song ben canh dd, Tehran lai cd ddng thai xudng nudc, khdng de dpa "lap day Iraq" mdi khi quan My nit di niia, ma td thien cbi tbam gia kenh ddi thoai My - Iraq - Iran ve van de
an ninh fraq
Ngay 3/12/2007, Hdi ddng Tinh bdo qudc gia My da edng bd Bdo cdo Ddnh gid tinh bdo qudc gia, trong dd cho thay: Iran da ngimg chuong trinh phat trien vii khi hat nhan tir nam 2003 va cho den thdi diem giira nam 2007, chuang trinh nay van chua dugc tdi khdi ddng Hien nay, Iran khdng cd via khi hat nhan cung nhu kbdng du kha nang edng nghe de san xuat pluton cho viec che tao vii khi hat nhan trudc nam 2015 Nhirng thdng tin duge dua ra chiing td nhiing cdo budc cua My ve tham vgng nguyen tir ciia Tehran da bi thdi phdng qud mirc Lan dau tien sau 6 nam khimg hoang My chu ddng
"xudng thang", lam giam eang thang quan be giiia hai nudc
Ngay 6/1/2008, cand tuan tra ciia Iran
r f f
bat ngd tien sat cdc tau chien My dang di
Trang 716 NGHIEN cau CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N ° n (134).2011
chuyen trong eo bien Hormuz Tuy nhien,
neu de y ring Iran ehi cho cdc cand nhd
khdng cd kha ndng tin cdng ra thdm dd, cdn
phia My cbi gidi ban trong vi?c bdy td lo
ngai ve khd ndng dung dp quan sir, thi cd the
cho thay bai ben deu dang tim cdch "kiem
che" de khdng mit the dien Trong chuyen
edng du 7 nude Trung Ddng sau dd, Tdng
thdng My Bush da khdng de dpa chien tranh,
ma chi keu ggi cdc nudc trong khu vuc ngan
chan Iran Trudc dd, phdt bieu tai Yazd ngay
3/1/2008, Gido cbii Iran Khamenei khang
dinh, khdng loai trir kha nang ndi lai quan be
vdi My, tuy vao thdi diem hien tai dieu nay
ehua mang lai Igi ich cho Iran
Trudc thdi do thieu hgp tdc cua Iran,
nham gia tang dp lire, ngay 3/3/2008, mdt
cudc hpp dac biet eua Hdi ddng Bao an Lien
r f
hgp qudc da thdng qua Nghi quyet 1803, dp
dung nhiing bien phdp trimg phat cirng ran
hom do nudc nay tir chdi ngimg cde boat
ddng hat nhan nhay cam ciia minh Ngay sau
dd, trong cudc hpp ngay 5/3/2008, Tdng
thdng M.Ahmadinejad da khang djnh: "Iran
f \ r
se khdng thuang lugng v&i bdt ki ai ve vdn
de hgt nhdn cua minh Ke tir bdy gid vdn de
hgt nhdn cita Iran chi dugc thdo ludn tgi
IAEA vd ndm trong khudn khd cdc cam ket
hai ben, ciing nhu Hiep u&c Khdng phd bien
vU khi hgt nhdn (NPT) " Trude tinh the ngay
eang bat lgi, Iran da chu ddng keu ggi ndi lai
dam phan Vao ngay 3/4/2008, Tdng thong
Iran M.Ahmadinejad tuyen bd: Iran san sang
tien hanh cdc cudc thuang lugng vdi cdc ben
f f \
lien quan den van de nay
Ngay 14/6/2008, phuomg Tay yeu cdu Iran hgp tdc chat che vdi nhdm P5+1 (gdm 5 thanh vien thudng true cua Hdi ddng Bao an
va Diic) Doi lai viec ngimg boat ddng lam giau uranium ciia Iran, cdc cudng quoc phuomg Tay thira nban quyen phdt trien boat ddng nghien cuu, sdn xuit va sir dung nang lugng hat nhan vi muc dicb bda binh Iran van td rd quylt tam theo dudi chuong trinh hat nhan khi Tdng thdng M.Ahmadinejad tuyen bd khdng nhugng bd trong van de hat nhan ciia nudc minh bat chap phai bimg chiu them nhirng lenh trimg phat mdi Ngay 16/9/2008, dng Herman Naeckerts, ngudi chi dao cdc cudc thanb sat ciia Co quan Nang lugng nguyen tir Qudc te IAEA o Trung Ddng, da cdng bd mdt sd tai lieu va anh cho thay Iran bi mat tim each che tao dau dan hat
f f
nhan Cudi thdng 9, Lien hgp qudc ra mot nghj quyet mdi yeu cau Iran ngimg ngay lap tlic mgi boat ddng lam giau urani, nhung khdng dp dung them bien phdp trimg phat nao
Ngdy 19/11/2008, Iran tilp tuc phdt Id
"menh lenh" ciia Hdi ddng Bao an va van pbong tda cudc dieu tra vl nhiing dau hieu lien quan den chuong trinb hat nban vi muc dich phi dan sir cua nudc nay ma IAEA da neu ra trong ban bdo cdo mdi trudc dd
Lap trudng cung rin cua Tdng thong G.Bush vl vin d l hat nhan Iran mgt lin niia dugc khang dinh trong cugc hgp bdo cuoi ciing trudc khi rdi Nha Tring TO/ig thing G.W Bush tuyen bd, CHDCND Jrilu Tien
va Iran "
Trang 8Mu&e kliiuiq kjoAnjg ftat nhAit ^^IUL 17
ivay, khi rdi nhiem sd, Tdng thdng G.Bush
I van ehua tim dugc giai phdp nao de cham
I diit cudc khimg hoang hat nhan d Iran Mdt
i lan niia, Iran la van de de lai cbo Tdng thdng
, ke tiep
3 Thai do ciia Nga, EU xung quanh
' van de hat nhan o Iran
1 Thdi dp cda Nga
Trong cdc cudng qudc tren the gidi, Nga
dang la nudc cd dnh hudmg va quan he than
thien nhat tai khu vuc Trung Ddng Nga
khdng chi la ddi tdc tdt vdi ke thii cua My
(Iran) ma vdi cd ban than ddng minh ciia My
(Israel) Nudc Nga dang la cau ndi giiia
phuang Ddng va phuomg Tay, la quan sdt
vien cua Td chiic cdc nudc Hdi gido Vi vay,
Nga la nhan td quan trpng trong viec giai
quylt vin de ndi com tai khu vuc, nhat la van
dl hat nhan ciia Iran
Vi dia - chinh tri, han nam sdt bien gidi
phia Nam, gin trung tam chien lugc cua Nga
Quan he Nga - Iran ciing i\liu quan he ddi
ngoai cua Iran true tilp tdc ddng tdi toan cue
dia - chiln lugc cua Nga Nga dang bj My
chen ep chiln lugc toan dien, bi bao vay chien
lugc d phia Ddng lln phia Tay Rieng d phia
Nam, do han tdn tai chinh quyen chdng My,
nen My khdng thi thuc thi kiem che chien
luge ddi vdi Nga Iran trd thanh qudc gia then
chdt dl phdt triln dnh hudng cua Nga d Trung
Ddng va ban chl anh hudng ciia cdc nudc khde
d khu vuc nay Ca Nga lan han cimg cd lgi ich
ehung trong viec bao ve lgi ich d Trung A
-Cdpcada va chdng lai su xam nhap cua
phuang Tay de dga din lgi ich cua hai nudc
vi kinh ti, Nga ed nhiing Igi ich kinh te
ldn d Iran Nga cd quan be hgp tdc kinb te va
ky thuat quan sir dac biet vdi Iran Hai ben
da ky kit nhilu hiep dinh quan trpng viec Nga cung cip cdc loai vu khi hicn dai da gdp phin gia tang ddng ke tiem luc quan su cua Iran Iran da soan thao chuong trinh hicn dai bda quan dpi trong vdng 25 nam chii yeu dua vao vii khi ciia Nga Ca Nga va Iran deu coi nhau la ddi tdc thuong mai va dau tu quan trpng Hai ben dang cd nhirng du an dau tu ldm Cbi rieng nba mdy dien hat nban Busbehr da buy ddng din 300 doanh nghiep Nga va tao viec lam cbo bom 20.000 ngudi Trdnh canh tranh bit lgi, Nga va Iran da thda thuan phan chia thi trudng dau khi, theo dd phin ldn chau A la thi trudng ciia Iran, cdn Nga khai thdc thi trudng chau Au va tien tdi hai nudc se thilt lap mdt "OPEC" khi dot
Trong vdn de hgt nhdn Iran, Nga la nha
dau tu nudc ngoai chii yeu, la nudc cd nhieu lgi ich khi tien hanh hgp tdc vdi Iran Cbi rieng du dn hgp tdc vdi Iran trong viec xay dung nha mdy Busbehr da len tdi gan 1 ty USD, gdp phan dua nganh bat nban ciia nudc Nga thodt khdi khiing hoang sau khi Lien Xd sup dd Nga bet siic coi trpng viec lgi dung hgp tdc hat nhan va hgp tdc quan sir de tao dung mdi quan he vdi Iran, hy vpng nhd
"true da dia li" ciia Iran de chi pbdi tinh hinh chinh tri Trung Ddng, khdi phuc anh hudng nirde ldn trudc day tren the gidi Thdng qua
^ TTXVN (2009), Chinh sdch cua Nga trong
viec hgp tdc hgt nhdn v&i Iran, Tai lieu tham
khao dac biet
Trang 918 NGHIEN cau CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°11 (134).20n
hgp tdc hat nban vdi Iran, Nga ed the tien
them mdt budc lam tang khd ndng ddi dau
giira My va Iran, ngan chan quan be My
-Iran di den cbd de dpa lgi ich chien lugc cua
Nga Ddng thdi, van de hat nban ciia Iran
lam cbo tinh binb Trung Ddng cang thang,
gid dau the gidi tang Ien, Nga tu nhien dugc
lgi khdng it
Vc phan minh, chinh pbii Nga van cho
rang hicn kbdng cd bang chirng nao cho thay
Iran dang tim each phdt tricn vu khi hat
nlian Tuy nhien, Nga ciing Io ngai chuong
trinh hat nhan cua Iran phuc vu cbo muc dicb
quan sir, do dd da tim cdcb dan xep cudc
tranh chap hat nhan vdi nhiing de nghi thda
hiep nhu de nghj nhan lai nhiing thanh nhien
lieu hat nhan da qua sir dung ve Nga va ciing
f
vdi Iran lam giau urani tren dat Nga Nga
khdng the chap nhan cd them mdt nudc Idng
gieng cd bom hat nhan Thdng 9/2003, khi
tra ldi phdng van hang truyen binh CNN,
Tdng thdng Nga V.Putin ndi: "Phia Nam
f f
nu&c Nga xudt hien mgt qudc gia hgt nhdn
m&i Id khdng phil hgp v&i lgi ich cita Nga "
Muc tieu CO ban khi giai quyet van de
hat nhan Iran cua Nga la vira ngan chan Iran
cd vii khi bat nhan, ddng thdi ngan chan My
thuc bien muu dd chinh trj kiem sodt Iran,
tlic ngan can My bien chinh quyen Iran than
Nga chdng My hien nay thanh chinh quyen
than My, xa rdi Nga Chinh vi vay, Nga da
hgp tdc cd gidi ban vdi Lien hgp qudc trong
f
viec dua ra cdc lenh trirng phat ddi vdi Iran
7 f
Quan diem ciia Nga la khdng mudn cd them
lenh trimg phat mdi Nga ludn cd tinh tri
hoan hoac chi chip nhan mdt phan trong cac
dl xuit trimg phat Iran Cudi cimg hg cung ddng y vdi mdt sd bien phdp trirng phat, nhung khdng bao gid dugc nhu y mudn ciia phuang Tay
Trudc kha nang My vd ddng minh co the sir dung vu lire chdng Iran Nga luon phan doi giai phap dd, bdi vice pha bo nguyen trang d Iran se lam iha\ ddi linh hinh trong khu vuc, ddng cham den quyen Igi ciia Nga Bd trudmg Ngoai giao Nga I Ivanov d5
nban manh: "Nga hy vgng rdng nhirng yev
sdch eua My ddi v&i Iran se khdng ddn ldi cugc xung dot gidng nhu a Iraq Cupc lap
tran chung tren bien Caspi \ di Iran (7/2009), mang thdng diep ma Nga giri tdi My la Nga khdng dung thii cho bat ki kjch ban "thay doi che dp" nao nham vao Iran - thanh tri chdng
My d khu vuc Ngoai ra Nga cdn canh bao
My, Israel va cdc nudc phuomg Tax su dung vii lire chdng Iran
Thuc tinh, vi lgi ich ciia minh, Nga khdng hy vgng cudc kbiing hoang hat nhan Iran sdm cham diit, it nhieu ky vpng My su dung vii lire ban che (chi tan cdng cac muc tieu hat nhan) ddi vdi Iran, khdng dan toi thay ddi che do Song lgi ich ma xung dot kilu nay mang lai la rit ldn vi da loai bd kh^ nang san xuat bom nguyen tir cua Iran, tang them quan he ddi diu My Iran, lam phiic tap them tinh hinh Trung Ddng Khi dd, ca
My, phuomg Tay va Iran cin vai trd cua nuoc Nga va anh hudmg, vi thi ciia Nga dugc tang len v l ca ban, Nga thuc bien chinh sach
thuc dung, thdng qua vin dk hat nhan Iran de
Trang 10^ude kfiuiLQ ^mAtijg, hat nhatt J4fan
tim kiem lgi ich va tang cudng dja vi qudc te
ciia minh
2 Thdi dp cua EU
EU va My cd muc tieu chung khdng de
cbo Iran phdt trien vii khi hat nhan, xda bd
mdi de dga hat nhan tilm tang nay Vi vay,
hai ben ludn cd sir phdi hgp va hgp tdc gan
bd trong viec gidi quyet van de bat nhan Iran
Dau vay, hai ben van chua dat dugc
thdng nhat hodn toan do nhiing toan tinh tir
lgi ich chien lugc EU da thua My trong viec
ngan chan "vii khi giet ngudi bang loat" d
Iraq, nay EU khdng mudn nhugng bd My
trong van de Iran Vi the, lanh dao nhd nudc
Hdi gido dang tim cdch khai thdc su ran niit
ve chinh sdch giiia Washington va EU Lap
trudmg cua Iran la lam suy yeu lien minh EU
- My chdng Tehran Ted Carpenter, nba
phan tich chien lugc cua Vien Cato
Washington cho biet, EU va My chi "thdng
f \ f \
nhat ngoai mat" ve van de hat nhan cua Iran
Thuc bien chinh sdch chia re, Iran cbpn ddi
tdc dam phdn la EU chir khdng pbdi la My
Khi dam phdn vdi Iran that bai, EU da dieu
chinh chinh sdch dua vdo Lien hgp qudc, gay
> f f \ y
Siic ep vdi Iran nham giai quyet van de bang
phuang phdp ngoai giao Do chii truang cua
EU tuomg ddi dn hda, thiet thuc va cho phep
Iran sir dung nang lugng hat nhan tren miic
do nhit dinh, nen Iran ludn sin sang md cua
dam phdn vdi EU
Nhu vay My va EU cd nhiing khde biet
/ f f \
tir cdcb tiep can va gidi quyet van de bat
nhan cua Iran, khac biet dd bi chi phdi bdi
^ f
bai toan lgi ich My ludn de xuat "chia se
gdnh nang" cbii chua de xuat chia se "lgi ich" vdi bat cii ai mudn thdng qua khung hoang hat nhan de ldi keo cdng ddng qudc tc ung bd muc tieu ciia My Cdi ma My Iheo dudi la loai bd che dp hien nay d Iran, xay dung mdt chinh quyen than My, tien tdi xay dung mdt "Trung Ddng md rdng" thiet lap sir thdng tri tuyet ddi ciia My, khdng che Nga, Trung Qudc lan cdc ddng minh ciia My Dimg dau md va vj tri chien lugc ciia Trung Ddng de ep budc chau Au cd dau hieu "ddc lap", quay trd lai quy dao ciia My Trong khi
dd, EU ciing cam nhan dugc nhumg bat lgi neu de My mdt minh giai quyet van dc hai nhan Iran, bdi bp nban thay:
Ve mat dia - chinh tri, Trung Ddng each
xa My, nhung lai lien ke vdi chau Au la sudn chien lugc Id chan an ninh va "san sau" cdc bien ciia EU Vdi anh budng hien nay cua Iran, neu khiing hoang hat nhan leo thang, Trung Ddng tiep tuc bat dn dan tdi thii ban dan tdc va tdn giao xa hdi rdi ren lan sdng di dan va tien cdng khimg bd iryc liep anh hudng va tdc ddng tdi chau Au chir khdng phai la My
Ve kinh te, Trung Ddng vdi ngudn tai
nguyen dau md pbong phu cd dnh hudng ldn tdi nen kinh te EU nhieu bom la ddi vdi My
"An ninh vd su phdn thinh ciia Tdy Au nha cdy nhieu vdo Trung Ddng, dgc biet Id tdi nguyen chien lucre ddu md ciia khu vuc ndy "
So vdi My, nudc dugc da dang bda ngudn cung dau md, EU le thudc vao Trung Ddng nhieu ban, chilm 52%) lugng diu sir dung