Fixed Income ETP Market has been Growing RapidlyNow make up about 20% of the US ETF Market Allan LevinInvestment Symposium / 26 March 2012Deutsche Bank FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT F
Trang 1Investment Symposium
March 2012
P4: ETF Funds: Latest Developments for Risk
Management and Investment
Allan Levin Steve Mickle
Moderator Allan Levin
Trang 2Fixed Income Exchange Traded Products
March 2012
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
— Exchange Traded Funds are listed investment funds, just like stock
— Fixed Income ETFs allow investors to obtain exposure to various indices and market sectors through a cash investment.
Fixed Income ETFs
Overview
indices and market sectors through a cash investment.
— Much of the liquidity in ETFs is generated by Authorized Participants (“APs”) who have the ability to create shares of a fund and pass them
Allan LevinInvestment Symposium / 26 March 2012Deutsche Bank
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 1
Trang 3Fixed Income ETP Market has been Growing Rapidly
Now make up about 20% of the US ETF Market
Allan LevinInvestment Symposium / 26 March 2012Deutsche Bank
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
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Some of the Largest ETFs are Fixed Income
Six of the Largest 20 ETPs are Fixed Income ETFs
Allan LevinInvestment Symposium / 26 March 2012Deutsche Bank
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 3
Trang 4US ETP AUM by Investment Focus – Fixed Income
Approximately $210 Billion in Total as at February 2012
Corporate
Inflation 13.0%
Muni 4.8%
Mortgage 2.3%
6.2%
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
Government 21.0%
High yield 13.3%
Sample of Active Fixed Income ETFs
Selected Large Fixed Income ETFs
Sector Total AUM $Bn Largest AUM $Bn ADV $mm
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 5Source: BlackRock Investment Insitute, Bloomberg
Trang 52011 Exceptional Growth in Fixed Income ETPs
Strong Flows into Corporate ETFs
— $48bn of new asset gathering in the US
— $22bn of Inflows into Corporate Debt (esp IG), $9.5bn into Agg., $6bn into EM
— ETFs received 2.8x higher flows than the ten-fold larger mutual fund industry
— 42 New Fixed Income ETFs Listed in the US in 2011 Launches included Inflation-linked, International & Actively Managed
Allan LevinInvestment Symposium / 26 March 2012Deutsche Bank
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
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Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, Bloomberg, National Stock Exchange (NSX), Deutsche Bank
2011 was an Excellent Year for Treasuries & TIPS
Eight of the Ten Best Performing ETPs (14 of the 20 Best ETPs)
ETP Name Issuer Asset Class Ticker TER Perf%
PowerShares DB 3x Long 25+ Year Treasury Bond ETN Deutsche Bank AG Fixed Income ETN LBND US 0.95% 117.80% Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3X Direxionshares Fixed Income ETF TMF US 0.95% 107.60%
ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ProShares Fixed Income ETF UBT US 0.95% 71.30% PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S Treasury Index PIMCO Fixed Income ETF ZROZ US 0.15% 54.20% Vanguard Extended Duration ETF Vanguard Fixed Income ETF EDV US 0.13% 47.30% iPath US Treasury 10-year Bull ETN iPath (Barclays) Fixed Income ETN DTYL US 0.75% 46.20% Daily 10-Year Treasury Bull 3X Direxionshares Fixed Income ETF TYD US 0.95% 43.90% iPath US TSY Long Bond Bull ETN iPath (Barclays) Fixed Income ETN DLBL US 0.75% 42.90% PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short ETN Deutsche Bank AG Commodity ETN BOM US 0.75% 41.80% iPath Short Enhanced MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETN iPath (Barclays) Equity ETN EMSA US 0.80% 41.30%
ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ProShares Fixed Income ETF UST US 0.95% 30.70% iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund BlackRock Fixed Income ETF TLT US 0.15% 28.80%
Allan LevinInvestment Symposium / 26 March 2012Deutsche Bank
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iPath US Treasury Flattener ETN iPath (Barclays) Fixed Income ETN FLAT US 0.75% 26.80% SPDR Barclays Capital Long Term Treasury ETF State Street GA Fixed Income ETF TLO US 0.14% 25.90%
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF Vanguard Fixed Income ETF VGLT US 0.15% 24.60% PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index Fund PIMCO Fixed Income ETF LTPZ US 0.27% 20.10% PowerShares DB Base Metals Short ETN Deutsche Bank AG Commodity ETN BOS US 0.75% 19.70%
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Reuters.
Trang 6Fixed Income ETFs
Features and Risks
ETF holdings are published every day Tracking error (due to bond selection,
Tradable intraday
Open-ended
rebalancing costs, etc.)
Bid-offer spread / management fee
Legal/fraud Risk
(Normal due diligence must be exercised when investing in any fund managed by someone else, including ETFs However
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
ETFs are generally seen as having an extremely low risk to fraud-type activities due to the transparency of the fund.)
— Issued by a corporate institution, and so carry with them the risk of default by
an issuer, causing the issuer not to be able to make payments described in the ETN prospectus
— Typically, has one final payment at maturity which is determined by formula
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
— Generally ETNs are creatable and redeemable on any business day The daily creation feature allows ETNs to be liquid even when traded volumes or total amounts outstanding are low The daily redemption feature generally mitigates the long term credit exposure to the issuer , as any holder can redeem shares of the ETN at the index NAV for that day
Trang 7Exchanged Traded Notes ( ETNs )
Features and Risks
No Tracking Error Senior Unsecured Credit Exposure
Transparency
Tax Efficient
Liquidity
(short-term due to the ability to redeem)
Less liquidity outside of underlying’s trading hours
Subject to an investor fee
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
Recent Innovations in Fixed Income ETPs
as demonstrated by recent launches
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
— US Fixed Income Sectors
— Active Management
— Different Exposure Structures
Trang 8Inflation-Linked ETPs
Focus on reducing “real duration” exposure
Spread FINF
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
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Floating Rate Note ETPs
Earn a credit spread while mitigating interest rate exposure
Floating Rate Note ETPs
SPDR IG Floating Rate Note FLRN
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 13
Trang 9Sovereign Bond ETNs
Summary of Sovereign Bond ETNs
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 14
Country or Regional Fixed Income ETPs
Diversified exposure to Sovereign and International Corporate Bonds
Country-Specific ETPs
Region-Specific ETPs
Market Vectors LatAm Ag Bond BONO
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 15
/ Sub-Sov Debt
Trang 10Increasing Sectorization of Fixed Income
Diversified exposure to Sovereign and Corporate Bonds
Sector-based ETPs
Corporate Debt ETPs
iShares Aaa-A Rated Corportes QLTA
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
3/15/2012 2:16:34 PM 2010 DB Blue template
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Active ETFs
Combining Active Management and Fixed Income ETFs
PIMCO Total Return Exchange-Traded Fund (TRXT)
— Modeled on PIMCO’s flagship Total Return strategy
— Cannot use options, futures or swaps
— Daily disclosure of holdings
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 17
Notes: 9pt, regular, bottom aligned, bottom margin only set at 0.2cm
(1) Footnote 9pt, regular, spacing 0pt
Source: 9pt, italic, spacing 0pt
Trang 11between Nominal Treasuries and TIPS
Market-implied Inflation Expectations
= Nominal Yield less Real Yield
Effectively, Long TIPS & Short Treasuries
Net Yield will results in a 10c change in the Share Price
Either a 0.01% reduction in TIPS Real Yields or a 0.01% increase in Treasury Yields should move the Share price up
by 10c E.g from $50 to $50.10
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
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Notional of underlying chosen such that DV01 is exactly 10c Accordingly, actual notional of TIPS and Treasuries backing the ETP may change over time
Summary
Fixed Income Exchange Based Products
— Exceptionally Strong Growth in Fixed Income ETPs
— Excellent Returns in 2011 – especially Treasuries and TIPS
— Both ETNs and ETFs are available
Deutsche Bank Allan Levin
Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
— Number of Recent Developments, including:
— Inflation-linked Products & Floating Rate Notes
— Sovereign & Emerging Market ETPs
— Sector-based and Active Funds
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Trang 12This document is intended for discussion purposes only and does not create any legally binding obligations on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates (“DB”) Without limitation this document does not constitute an offer an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any
Disclaimer
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as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved Past performance is not a guarantee of future results This material was prepared by a Sales or Trading function within DB, and was not produced, reviewed or edited by the Research Department Any opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other DB departments including the Research Department Sales and Trading functions are subject to additional potential conflicts of interest which the Research Department does not face DB may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein DB trades or may trade as principal in the instruments (or related derivatives) and may have proprietary
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Investment Symposium / 26 March 2012 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 20
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Trang 13ETF Funds: Latest Developments for Risk Management and Investment
SOA Investment Symposium
Growth of exchange traded funds
Increasing institutional adoption of ETPs
5427891,009 1,065
iShares AUM US ETP AUM Number of Institutional Users
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 2
share of the fixed income US ETP market
• Largest range of exposures based on most widely held, institutionally relevant benchmarks
• Approximately 54% of ETP AUM held by institutional clients
• 5 of the 10 most actively traded US equities by dollar volume YTD were ETFs
• ETFs represent ~30% of US daily equity trading volume YTD
Sources: FactSet, Bloomberg, BlackRock ETF Research and Implementation Strategy, Thomson Reuters, NYSE Arca, Credit Suisse
2009–2011 users estimated based on Ten-year CAGR and 2008 users Statistics as of 11/30/11
Trang 14ETF applications in institutional portfolios
• Institutional investors often cite liquidity, flexibility and diversification opportunities as the main reasons for investing in ETFs
• A recent Greenwich Associates survey indicates that nearly one-third of the institutions polled plan to increase their use
of ETFs over the next two years*
• The table below shows the wide spectrum in which ETFs can help institutional investors meet specific objectives, from short-term tactical allocations to long-term strategic applications
Greenwich survey highlights:
How institutions are using ETFs today
short term tactical allocations to long term strategic applications
“We recently replaced a small cap
growth manager due to underperformance and we used an ETF that provided passive exposure while
we conducted a formal search for another active manager In an underperformance situation, using ETFs is a better solution than leaving the money with the manager.” – large
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 3
Benefits of iShares ETFs
• ETFs offer immediate exposure to a basket or group of securities for
• ETFs offer two sources of liquidity
Liquidity measured by secondary market trading volume
The liquidity of the underlying assets via the creation and redemption process
• Investors can generally see the ETF composition at any given time
• ETFs offer a cost-effective route to diversified market exposure
• The average annual total expense ratio (TER) for equity ETFs listed in the US is 49 bps versus 75 bps for domestic equity index funds and 134 bps for active domestic equity funds*
• ETF units and underlying assets can be lent out to potentially offset holding costs
• ETFs are listed on exchanges and can be traded at any time the market is open
• Pricing is continuous throughout the day
diversification through a single trade
• Broad range of asset classes, including equities, bonds, commodities, investment themes, etc.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY – NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION 4
Securities
Lending
*Source: Morningstar, BlackRock Investment Institute, as of 12/31/11 ETF TER is for all US listed equity ETFs
There is no guarantee that there will be borrower demand for shares of the iShares Funds, or that securities lending will generate any level of income Distributions paid out
of the Fund's net investment income, including income from securities lending, if any, are taxable to investors as ordinary income
ETF units and underlying assets can be lent out to potentially offset holding costs
Tax Efficiency • In-kind creation and redemption mechanism helps insulate ETF holders from
unintended tax consequences
• Experienced portfolio management team actively seeks to minimize capital gains