“Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in thePropagation of the Great Depression.” American Economic Review 73, no.. “The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment
Trang 1For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S Government Printing OfficeInternet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800Fax: (202) 512-2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402-0001
council of economic advisers
united states government printing office
Trang 3C O N T E N T S
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT 1 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS* 11
RECESSION 39
ECONOMY 81 CHAPTER 4 SAVING AND INVESTMENT 113
CHALLENGE 137
CHAPTER 7 REFORMING HEALTH CARE 181
FORCE 213
ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE 235 CHAPTER 10 FOSTERING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
THROUGH INNOVATION AND TRADE 259 REFERENCES 285 APPENDIX A REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE
ACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 2009 305 APPENDIX B STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,
EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION 319
*For a detailed table of contents of the Council’s Report, see page 15.
Page
Trang 4economic report
of the
president
Trang 5economic report of the president
To the Congress of the United States:
As we begin a new year, the American people are still experiencing the effects of a recession as deep and painful as any we have known in generations Traveling across this country, I have met countless men and women who have lost jobs these past two years I have met small business owners struggling to pay for health care for their workers; seniors unable
to afford prescriptions; parents worried about paying the bills and saving for their children’s future and their own retirement And the effects of this recession come in the aftermath of a decade of declining economic security for the middle class and those who aspire to it.
At the same time, over the past two years, we have also seen reason for hope: the resilience of the American people who have held fast— even in the face of hardship—to an unrelenting faith in the promise of our country.
It is that determination that has helped the American people overcome difficult periods in our Nation’s history And it is this persever- ance that remains our great strength today After all, our workers are as productive as ever American businesses are still leaders in innovation Our potential is still unrivaled Our task as a Nation—and our mission
as an Administration—is to harness that innovative spirit, that productive energy, and that potential in order to create jobs, raise incomes, and foster economic growth that is sustained and broadly shared It’s not enough
to move the economy from recession to recovery We must rebuild the economy on a new and stronger foundation.
I can report that over the past year, this work has begun In the coming year, this work continues But to understand where we must go
in the next year and beyond, it is important to remember where we began one year ago.
Trang 6Last January, years of irresponsible risk-taking and debt-fueled speculation—unchecked by sound oversight—led to the near-collapse
of our financial system We were losing an average of 700,000 jobs each month Over the course of one year, $13 trillion of Americans’ household wealth had evaporated as stocks, pensions, and home values plummeted Our gross domestic product was falling at the fastest rate in a quarter century The flow of credit, vital to the functioning of businesses large and small, had ground to a halt The fear among economists, from across the political spectrum, was that we could sink into a second Great Depression Immediately, we took a series of difficult steps to prevent that catastrophe for American families and businesses We acted to get lending flowing again so ordinary Americans could get financing to buy homes and cars, to go to college, and to start businesses of their own; and so businesses, large and small, could access loans to make payroll, buy equip- ment, hire workers, and expand We enacted measures to stem the tide of foreclosures in our housing market, helping responsible homeowners stay
in their homes and helping to stop the broader decline in home values.
To achieve this, and to prevent an economic collapse, we were forced
to use authority enacted under the previous Administration to extend assistance to some of the very banks and financial institutions whose actions had helped precipitate the turmoil We also took steps to prevent the collapse of the American auto industry, which faced a crisis partly
of its own making, to prevent another round of widespread job losses in
an already fragile time These decisions were not popular, but they were necessary Indeed, the decision to stabilize the financial system helped to avert a larger catastrophe, and thanks to the efficient management of the rescue—with added transparency and accountability—we have recovered most of the money provided to banks.
In addition, even as we worked to address the crises in our banking sector, in our housing market, and in our auto industry, we also began attacking our economic crisis on a broader front Less than one month after taking office, we enacted the most sweeping economic recovery package in history: the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of
2009 The Recovery Act not only provided tax cuts to small businesses and
95 percent of working families and provided emergency relief to those out
of work or without health insurance; it also began to lay a new foundation for long-term growth With investments in health care, education, infra- structure, and clean energy, the Recovery Act has saved or created roughly two million jobs so far, and it has begun the hard work of transforming our economy to thrive in the modern, global era.
Trang 7Because of these and other steps, we can safely say that we’ve avoided the depression many feared Our economy is growing again, and the growth over the last three months was the strongest in six years But while economic growth is important, it means nothing to somebody who has lost a job and can’t find another For Americans looking for work, a good job is the only good news that matters And that’s why our work is far from complete.
It is true that the steps we have taken have slowed the flood of job losses from 691,000 per month in the first quarter of 2009 to 69,000 in the last quarter But stemming the tide of job loss isn’t enough More than
7 million jobs have been lost since the recession began two years ago This represents not only a terrible human tragedy, but also a very deep hole from which we’ll have to climb out Until jobs are being created to replace those we’ve lost—until America is back at work—my Administration will not rest and this recovery will not be finished.
That’s why I am continuing to call on the Congress to pass a jobs bill I’ve proposed a package that includes tax relief for small businesses to spur hiring, that accelerates construction on roads, bridges, and waterways, and that creates incentives for homeowners to invest in energy efficiency, because this will create jobs, save families money, and reduce pollution that harms our environment.
It is also essential that as we promote private sector hiring, we continue to take steps to prevent layoffs of critical public servants like teachers, firefighters, and police officers, whose jobs are threatened by State and local budget shortfalls To do otherwise would not only worsen unemployment and hamper our recovery; it would also undermine our communities And we cannot forget the millions of people who have lost their jobs The Recovery Act provided support for these families hardest- hit by this recession, and that support must continue.
At the same time, long before this crisis hit, middle-class families were under growing strain For decades, Washington failed to address fundamental weaknesses in the economy: rising health care costs, growing dependence on foreign oil, an education system unable to prepare all of our children for the jobs of the future In recent years, spending bills and tax cuts for the very wealthiest were approved without paying for any of
it, leaving behind a mountain of debt And while Wall Street gambled without regard for the consequences, Washington looked the other way.
As a result, the economy may have been working for some at the very top, but it was not working for all American families Year after year, folks were forced to work longer hours, spend more time away from their
Trang 8loved ones, all while their incomes flat-lined and their sense of economic security evaporated Growth in our country was neither sustained nor broadly shared Instead of a prosperity powered by smart ideas and sound investments, growth was fueled in large part by a rapid rise in consumer borrowing and consumer spending.
Beneath the statistics are the stories of hardship I’ve heard all across America—hardships that began long before this recession hit two years ago For too many, there has long been a sense that the American dream—a chance to make your own way, to work hard and support your family, save for college and retirement, own a home—was slipping away And this sense of anxiety has been combined with a deep frustration that Washington either didn’t notice, or didn’t care enough to act.
These weaknesses have not only made our economy more susceptible to the kind of crisis we have been through They have also meant that even in good times the economy did not produce nearly enough gains for middle-class families Typical American families saw their stan- dards of living stagnate, rather than rise as they had for generations That
is why, in the aftermath of this crisis, and after years of inaction, what is clear is that we cannot go back to business as usual.
That is why, as we strive to meet the crisis of the moment, we are continuing to lay a new foundation for prosperity: a foundation on which the middle class can prosper and grow, where if you are willing to work hard, you can find a good job, afford a home, send your children to world- class schools, afford high-quality health care, and enjoy retirement security
in your later years This is the heart of the American Dream, and it is at the core of our efforts to not only rebuild this economy—but to rebuild it stronger than before And this work has already begun.
Already, we have made historic strides to reform and improve our education system We have launched a Race to the Top in which schools are competing to create the most innovative programs, especially in math and science We have already made college more affordable, even as we seek to increase student aid by ending a wasteful subsidy that serves only
to line the pockets of lenders with tens of billions of taxpayer dollars And I’ve proposed a new American Graduation Initiative and set this goal: by
2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college uates in the world For we know that in this new century, growth will be powered not by what consumers can borrow and spend, but what talented, skilled workers can create and export.
grad-Already, we have made historic strides to improve our health care system, essential to our economic prosperity The burdens this system
Trang 9places on workers, businesses, and governments is simply unsustainable And beyond the economic cost—which is vast—there is also a terrible human toll That’s why we’ve extended health insurance to millions more children; invested in health information technology through the Recovery Act to improve care and reduce costly errors; and provided the largest boost to medical research in our history And I continue to fight to pass real, meaningful health insurance reforms that will get costs under control for families, businesses, and governments, protect people from the worst practices of insurance companies, and make coverage more affordable and secure for people with insurance, as well as those without it.
Already, we have begun to build a new clean energy economy The Recovery Act included the largest investment in clean energy in history, investments that are today creating jobs across America in the industries that will power our future: developing wind energy, solar technology, and clean energy vehicles But this work has only just begun Other countries around the world understand that the nation that leads the clean energy economy will be the nation that leads the global economy I want America
to be that nation That is why we are working toward legislation that will create new incentives to finally make renewable energy the profitable kind of energy in America It’s not only essential for our planet and our security, it’s essential for our economy.
But this is not all we must do For growth to be truly sustainable— for our prosperity to be truly shared and our living standards to actually rise—we need to move beyond an economy that is fueled by budget deficits and consumer demand In other words, in order to create jobs and raise incomes for the middle class over the long run, we need to export more and borrow less from around the world, and we need to save more money and take on less debt here at home As we rebuild, we must also rebalance.
In order to achieve this, we’ll need to grow this economy by growing our capacity to innovate in burgeoning industries, while putting a stop to irre- sponsible budget policies and financial dealings that have led us into such
a deep fiscal and economic hole.
That begins with policies that will promote innovation throughout our economy To spur the discoveries that will power new jobs, new busi- nesses—and perhaps new industries—I have challenged both the public sector and the private sector to devote more resources to research and development And to achieve this, my budget puts us on a path to double investment in key research agencies and makes the research and experi- mentation tax credit permanent We are also pursuing policies that will help us export more of our goods around the world, especially by small
Trang 10businesses and farmers And by harnessing the growth potential of national trade—while ensuring that other countries play by the rules and that all Americans share in the benefits—we will support millions of good, high-paying jobs.
inter-But hand in hand with increasing our reliance on the Nation’s ingenuity is decreasing our reliance on the Nation’s credit card, as well as reining in the excess and abuse in our financial sector that led large firms
to take on extraordinary risks and extraordinary liabilities.
When my Administration took office, the surpluses our Nation had enjoyed at the start of the last decade had disappeared as a result of the failure to pay for two large tax cuts, two wars, and a new entitlement program And decades of neglect of rising health care costs had put our budget on an unsustainable path.
In the long term, we cannot have sustainable and durable economic growth without getting our fiscal house in order That is why even as we increased our short-term deficit to rescue the economy, we have refused
to go along with business as usual, taking responsibility for every dollar we spend Last year, we combed the budget, cutting waste and excess wher- ever we could, a process that will continue in the coming years We are pursuing health insurance reforms that are essential to reining in deficits I’ve called for a fee to be paid by the largest financial firms so that the American people are fully repaid for bailing out the financial sector And I’ve proposed a freeze on nonsecurity discretionary spending for three years, a bipartisan commission to address the long-term structural imbal- ance between expenditures and revenues, and the enactment of “pay-go” rules so that Congress has to account for every dollar it spends.
In addition, I’ve proposed a set of common sense reforms to prevent future financial crises For while the financial system is far stronger today than it was one year ago, it is still operating under the same rules that led
to its near-collapse These are rules that allowed firms to act contrary to the interests of customers; to hide their exposure to debt through complex financial dealings that few understood; to benefit from taxpayer-insured deposits while making speculative investments to increase their own profits; and to take on risks so vast that they posed a threat to the entire economy and the jobs of tens of millions of Americans.
That is why we are seeking reforms to empower consumers with the benefit of a new consumer watchdog charged with making sure that financial information is clear and transparent; to close loopholes that allowed big financial firms to trade risky financial products like credit defaults swaps and other derivatives without any oversight; to identify
Trang 11system-wide risks that could cause a financial meltdown; to strengthen capital and liquidity requirements to make the system more stable; and to ensure that the failure of any large firm does not take the economy down with it Never again will the American taxpayer be held hostage by a bank that is “too big to fail.”
Through these reforms, we seek not to undermine our markets but
to make them stronger: to promote a vibrant, fair, and transparent cial system that is far more resistant to the reckless, irresponsible activities that might lead to another meltdown And these kinds of reforms are in the shared interest of firms on Wall Street and families on Main Street These have been a very tough two years American families and businesses have paid a heavy price for failures of responsibility from Wall Street to Washington Our task now is to move beyond these failures, to take responsibility for our future once more That is how we will create new jobs in new industries, harnessing the incredible generative and creative capacity of our people That is how we’ll achieve greater economic security and opportunity for middle-class families in this country That
finan-is how in thfinan-is new century we will rebuild our economy stronger than ever before.
the white house
february 2010
Trang 12the annual report
of the
council of economic advisers
Trang 14C O N T E N T S
CHAPTER 1 TO RESCUE, REBALANCE, AND REBUILD 25
Rescuing an Economy in Freefall 26
Rescuing the Economy from the Great Recession 28
Crisis and Recovery in the World Economy 29
Rebalancing the Economy on the Path to Full Employment 29
Saving and Investment 29
Addressing the Long-Run Fiscal Challenge 31
Building a Safer Financial System 32
Rebuilding a Stronger Economy 33
Reforming Health Care 33
Strengthening the American Labor Force 35
Transforming the Energy Sector and Addressing Climate Change 36
Fostering Productivity Growth Through Innovation and Trade 37
Conclusion 38
CHAPTER 2 RESCUING THE ECONOMY FROM THE GREAT RECESSION 39
An Economy in Freefall 39
The Run-Up to the Recession 40
The Downturn 41
Wall Street and Main Street 44
The Unprecedented Policy Response 46
Monetary Policy 47
Financial Rescue 49
Fiscal Stimulus 51
Housing Policy 55
The Effects of the Policies 56
Page
Trang 15The Financial Sector 57
Housing 60
Overall Economic Activity 63
The Labor Market 68
The Challenges Ahead 72
Deteriorating Forecasts 72
The Administration Forecast 75
Responsible Policies to Spur Job Creation 78
Conclusion 79
CHAPTER 3 CRISIS AND RECOVERY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY 81
International Dimensions of the Crisis 82
Spread of the Financial Shock 82
The Collapse of World Trade 87
The Collapse in Financial Flows 89
The Decline in Output Around the Globe 90
Policy Responses Around the Globe 93
Monetary Policy in the Crisis 93
Central Bank Liquidity Swaps 96
Fiscal Policy in the Crisis 98
Trade Policy in the Crisis 100
The Role of International Institutions 100
The G-20 100
The International Monetary Fund 101
The Beginning of Recovery Around the Globe 102
The Impact of Fiscal Policy 104
The World Economy in the Near Term 106
Global Imbalances in the Crisis 108
Conclusion 111
CHAPTER 4 SAVING AND INVESTMENT 113
The Path of Consumption Spending 114
The Determinants of Saving 115
Implications for Recent and Future Saving Behavior 117
The Future of the Housing Market and Construction 120
The Housing Market 121
Trang 16Commercial Real Estate 123
Business Investment 126
Investment in the Recovery 126
Investment in the Long Run 127
The Current Account 129
Determinants of the Current Account 129
The Current Account in the Recovery and in the Long Run 132
Steps to Encourage Exports 133
Conclusion 135
CHAPTER 5 ADDRESSING THE LONG-RUN FISCAL CHALLENGE 137
The Long-Run Fiscal Challenge 137
Sources of the Long-Run Fiscal Challenge 139
The Role of the Recovery Act and Other Rescue Operations 143
An Anchor for Fiscal Policy 144
The Effects of Budget Deficits 145
Feasible Long-Run Fiscal Policies 146
The Choice of a Fiscal Anchor 148
Reaching the Fiscal Target 149
General Principles 149
Comprehensive Health Care Reform 150
Restoring Balance to the Tax Code 151
Eliminating Wasteful Spending 155
Conclusion: The Distance Still to Go 156
CHAPTER 6 BUILDING A SAFER FINANCIAL SYSTEM 159
What Is Financial Intermediation? 160
The Economics of Financial Intermediation 160
Types of Financial Intermediaries 163
The Regulation of Financial Intermediation in the United States 166
Financial Crises: The Collapse of Financial Intermediation 170
Confidence Contagion 170
Counterparty Contagion 172
Coordination Contagion 173
Preventing Future Crises: Regulatory Reform 174
Trang 17Promote Robust Supervision and Regulation of Financial
Firms 175
Establish Comprehensive Regulation of Financial Markets 176
Provide the Government with the Tools It Needs to Manage Financial Crises 178
Raise International Regulatory Standards and Improve International Cooperation 179
Protect Consumers and Investors from Financial Abuse 179
Conclusion 180
CHAPTER 7 REFORMING HEALTH CARE 181
The Current State of the U.S Health Care Sector 182
Rising Health Spending in the United States 182
Market Failures in the Current U.S Health Care System: Theoretical Background 185
System-Wide Evidence of Inefficient Spending 188
Declining Coverage and Strains on Particular Groups and Sectors 191
Health Policies Enacted in 2009 196
Expansion of the CHIP Program 197
Subsidized COBRA Coverage 197
Temporary Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) Increase 199
Recovery Act Measures to Improve the Quality and Efficiency of Health Care 201
2009 Health Reform Legislation 202
Insurance Market Reforms: Strengthening and Securing Coverage 202
Expansions in Health Insurance Coverage Through the Exchange 205
Economic and Health Benefits of Expanding Health Insurance Coverage 206
Reducing the Growth Rate of Health Care Costs in the Public and Private Sectors 207
The Economic Benefits of Slowing the Growth Rate of Health Care Costs 210
Conclusion 211
Trang 18CHAPTER 8 STRENGTHENING THE AMERICAN
LABOR FORCE 213
Challenges Facing American Workers 214
Unemployment 214
Sectoral Change 216
Stagnating Incomes for Middle-Class Families 217
Policies to Support Workers 219
Education and Training: The Groundwork for Long-Term Prosperity 221
Benefits of Education 221
Trends in U.S Educational Attainment 222
U.S Student Achievement 226
A Path Toward Improved Educational Performance 227
Postsecondary Education 228
Training and Adult Education 229
Elementary and Secondary Education 231
Early Childhood Education 233
Conclusion 234
CHAPTER 9 TRANSFORMING THE ENERGY SECTOR AND ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE 235
Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Climate, and Economic Well-Being 236
Greenhouse Gases 237
Temperature Change 238
Impact on Economic Well-Being 239
Jump-Starting the Transition to Clean Energy 243
Recovery Act Investments in Clean Energy 243
Short-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Clean Energy Investments 246
Other Domestic Actions to Mitigate Climate Change 247
Market-Based Approaches to Advance the Clean Energy Transformation and Address Climate Change 248
Cap-and-Trade Program Basics 248
Ways to Contain Costs in an Effective Cap-and-Trade System 250
Trang 19Coverage of Gases and Industries 253
The American Clean Energy and Security Act 254
International Action on Climate Change Is Needed 255
Partnerships with Major Developed and Emerging Economies 256
Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Subsidies 257
Conclusion 257
CHAPTER 10 FOSTERING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH THROUGH INNOVATION AND TRADE 259
The Role of Productivity Growth in Driving Living Standards 261
Recent Trends in Productivity in the United States 262
Sources of Productivity Growth 264
Fostering Productivity Growth Through Innovation 266
The Importance of Basic Research 267
Private Research and Experimentation 269
Protection of Intellectual Property Rights 270
Spurring Progress in National Priority Areas 272
Increasing Openness and Transparency 272
Trade as an Engine of Productivity Growth and Higher Living Standards 274
The United States and International Trade 275
Sources of Productivity Growth from International Trade 276
Encouraging Trade and Enforcing Trade Agreements 280
Ensuring the Gains from Productivity Growth Are Widely Shared 282
Conclusion 284
REFERENCES 285
appendixes A Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 2009 305
B Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and Production 319
Trang 20list of figures
1-1 House Prices Adjusted for Inflation 27
1-2 Monthly Change in Payroll Employment 28
1-3 Personal Consumption Expenditures as a Share of GDP 30
1-4 Actual and Projected Budget Surpluses in January 2009 under Previous Policy 31
1-5 Real Median Family Income 33
1-6 Total Compensation Including and Excluding Health Insurance 34
1-7 Mean Years of Schooling by Birth Cohort 36
1-8 R&D Spending as a Percent of GDP 37
2-1 House Prices Adjusted for Inflation 40
2-2 Income and Consumption Around the 2008 Tax Rebate 42
2-3 TED Spread and Moody’s BAA-AAA Spread Through December 2008 43
2-4 Assets on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet 48
2-5 TED Spread and Moody’s BAA-AAA Spread Through December 2009 57
2-6 S&P 500 Stock Price Index 58
2-7 Monthly Gross SBA 7(a) and 504 Loan Approvals 60
2-8 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate 61
2-9 FHFA and LoanPerformance National House Price Indexes 63
2-10 Real GDP Growth 64
2-11 Real GDP: Actual and Statistical Baseline Projection 65
2-12 Contributions to Real GDP Growth 66
2-13 Average Monthly Change in Employment 68
2-14 Estimated Effect of the Recovery Act on Employment 69
2-15 Contributions to the Change in Employment 71
2-16 Okun’s Law, 2000-2009 74
3-1 Interbank Market Rates 83
3-2 Nominal Trade-Weighted Dollar Index 85
3-3 OECD Exports-to-GDP Ratio 87
3-4 Vertical Specialization and the Collapse in Trade 88
3-5 Cross-Border Gross Purchases and Sales of Long-Term Assets 90
3-6 Industrial Production in Advanced Economies 91
3-7 Industrial Production in Emerging Economies 92
3-8 Headline Inflation, 12-Month Change 93
3-9 Policy Rates in Economies with Major Central Banks 94
Trang 213-10 Change in Central Bank Assets 95
3-11 Central Bank Liquidity Swaps of the Federal Reserve 97
3-12 Tax Share and Discretionary Stimulus 99
3-13 Outperforming Expectations and Stimulus 105
3-14 OECD Countries: GDP and Unemployment 108
3-15 Current Account Deficits or Surpluses 110
4-1 Personal Consumption Expenditures as a Share of GDP 114
4-2 Personal Saving Rate Versus Wealth Ratio 115
4-3 Personal Saving Rate: Actual Versus Model 118
4-4 Actual Personal Saving Versus Counterfactual Personal Saving 119
4-5 Single-Family Housing Starts 121
4-6 Homeownership Rate 122
4-7 Fixed Investment in Structures by Type 124
4-8 Commercial Real Estate Prices and Loan Delinquencies 125
4-9 Nonstructures Investment as a Share of Nominal GDP 128
4-10 Saving, Investment, and the Current Account as a Percent of GDP 132
4-11 Growth of U.S Exports and Rest-of-World Income: 1960-2008 134
5-1 Actual and Projected Budget Surpluses in January 2009 under Previous Policy 138
5-2 Actual and Projected Government Debt Held by the Public under Previous Policy 139
5-3 Budgetary Cost of Previous Administration Policy 141
5-4 Causes of Rising Spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security 142
5-5 Budget Comparison: January 2001 and January 2009 143
5-6 Effect of the Recovery Act on the Deficit 144
5-7 Top Statutory Tax Rates 153
5-8 Evolution of Average Tax Rates 154
6-1 Financial Intermediation: Saving into Investment 161
6-2 Financial Sector Assets 163
6-3 Share of Financial Sector Assets by Type 164
6-4 Confidence Contagion 171
6-5 Counterparty Contagion 173
6-6 Coordination Contagion 174
7-1 National Health Expenditures as a Share of GDP 183
7-2 Total Compensation Including and Excluding Health Insurance 184
Trang 227-3 Child and Infant Mortality Across G-7 Countries 190
7-4 Insurance Rates of Non-Elderly Adults 192
7-5 Percent of Americans Uninsured by Age 193
7-6 Share of Non-Elderly Individuals Uninsured by Poverty
Status 194
7-7 Medicare Part D Out-of-Pocket Costs by Total Prescription Drug Spending 195
7-8 Share Uninsured among Adults Aged 18 and Over 198
7-9 Monthly Medicaid Enrollment Across the States 200
8-1 Unemployment and Underemployment Rates 214
8-2 Unemployment Rates by Race 215
8-3 Real Median Family Income and Median Individual
Earnings 218
8-4 Share of Pre-Tax Income Going to the Top 10 Percent of
Families 219
8-5 Total Wage and Salary Income by Educational Group 222
8-6 Mean Years of Schooling by Birth Cohort 224
8-7 Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort, 2007 225
8-8 Long-Term Trend Math Performance 227
9-1 Projected Global Carbon Dioxide Concentrations with No
Additional Action 238
9-2 Recovery Act Clean Energy Appropriations by Category 246
9-3 United States, China, and World Carbon Dioxide
Emissions 255
10-1 Non-Farm Labor Productivity and Per Capita Income 261
10-2 Labor Productivity Growth since 1947 262
10-3 R&D Spending as a Percent of GDP 270
10-4 Exports as a Share of GDP 275
10-5 Intra-Industry Trade, U.S Manufacturing 278
list of tables 2-1 Cyclically Sensitive Elements of Labor Market Adjustment 70
2-2 Forecast and Actual Macroeconomic Outcomes 73
2-3 Administration Economic Forecast 75
3-1 2009 Fiscal Stimulus as Share of GDP, G-20 Members 98
3-2 Stimulus and Growth in Advanced G-20 Countries 104
5-1 Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Selected OECD
Countries (percent) 147
Trang 23list of boxes 2-1 Potential Real GDP Growth 76
4-1 Unemployment and the Current Account 130
7-1 The Impact of Health Reform on State and Local
Governments 208
8-1 The Recession’s Impact on the Education System 224
8-2 Community Colleges: A Crucial Component of Our
Higher Education System 230
9-1 Climate Change in the United States and Potential Impacts 240
9-2 Expected Consumption Loss Associated with Temperature
Increase 241
9-3 The European Union’s Experience with Emissions Trading 252
10-1 Overview of the Administration’s Innovation Agenda 266
Trang 24Chapter
To Rescue, Rebalance, and Rebuild
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