The State of the Population in the Western Cape Province potx

Population distribution by population group race in the Western Cape and South Africa 2007 153Figure 7.2.. Ravayi Marindo The main purpose in writing the State of the population in the W

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Tables viiFigures xAcknowledgements xiiiAcronyms and abbreviations xv

Sam GaisieConclusion฀ 239฀

Ravayi Marindo and Siyanda SakiContributors฀ 242

Table 1.1 Surface area and population of the Western Cape, by district municipality

(1996 and 2001) 8Table 1.2 Comparison of population numbers and growth between the Western Cape

and South Africa (1996, 2001 and 2007) 11Table 1.3 Estimated migration into and out of the Western Cape (2001–2006 and

2006–2011) 12Table 1.4 Population estimate for the Western Cape (2007) 17Table 1.5 Population, by population group, for South Africa and the Western Cape

(1996, 2001 and 2007) 19Table 1.6 Language composition for South Africa and the Western Cape, by district

municipality (2001) 20Table 2.1 High-level targets of the Western Cape PGDS (2006–2014) 37Table 3.1 Period life table for the Western Cape 51

Table 3.2 Probability of dying, by generation 52Table 3.3 Survivals per 1 000 births, by generation 53Table 3.4 Infant mortality and under-five mortality rates in the Western Cape

(1997–2004) 54Table 3.5 Neonatal infant mortality rate in the Western Cape, by period (2006) 55Table 3.6 Neonatal infant mortality rate in the Western Cape, by period (2007) 55Table 3.7 Distribution of dead infants, by period, during first month of life per 100

neonatal deaths in the Western Cape (2006) 55Table 3.8 Distribution of dead infants, by period, during first month of life per 100

neonatal deaths in the Western Cape (2007) 56Table 3.9 Proportion of dying babies (less than one year old), by weight (2006 and

2007) 56Table 3.10 Proportion of infant deaths per 1 000 live births in the Western Cape, by

health facility sector (2006) 57Table 3.11 Proportion of infant deaths per 1 000 live births in the Western Cape, by

health facility sector (2007) 57Table 3.12 Proportion of infant deaths, by medical institution, in the Western Cape per

1 000 live births at each institution (2006) 57Table 3.13 Proportion of infant deaths, by medical institution, in the Western Cape per

1 000 live births at each institution (2007) 58Table 3.14 Distribution of deliveries, by place of delivery, per 100 deliveries in the

Western Cape (2006) 58Table 3.15 Distribution of deliveries, by place of delivery, per 100 deliveries in the

Western Cape (2007) 58Table 3.16 Distribution of infant deaths in South Africa, by reason of death and age

period (1995–1996) 59Table 3A1 Lexis diagram: live births and deaths in the Western Cape (1998–2004) 63Table 4.1 Completeness of adult death registration (2001) 74

Table 4.2 Mortality rates between the ages of 15 and 60 (45M15) for females 87

Table 4A2 Male average completeness ratios for adults aged 15+ (1996–2004) 92Table 4A3 Age and sex mortality rates for Cape Town (1996–2004) 93

Table 5.1 Summary of key research studies and reports in the public domain relevant

to child maltreatment in the Western Cape (2000–2005) 107Table 5.2 Sexual assault incidence rates per 1 000 children, aged 0–13 years, by health

region 111Table 5.3 Children’s Court Inquiry (CCI) incidence rates, per 1 000 children

(2002–2005) 113Table 5.4 The elements of a protective environment (UNICEF) 117Table 6.1 Age composition of the Western Cape population, by sex and population

group (1996 and 2001) 129Table 6.2 Population ageing indices of the Western Cape, by population group (1996

and 2001) 132Table 6.3 Median age and life expectancy at age 65 years of the Western Cape

population, by sex and population group (1996 and 2001) 133Table 6.4 Projected population of the Western Cape, by population group (2005–

2025) 137Table 7.1 Population density in the Western Cape district municipalities (1996, 2001

and 2007) 154Table 7.2 Foreign-born population in the highest immigration countries in the world

(1990s–2000s rounds of censuses) 158Table 7.3 Foreign-born population, by province of enumeration and country of birth

(2001) 160Table 7.4 Foreign-born population in the Western Cape, by racial group (2001) 161Table 7.5 Foreign-born population in the Western Cape, by country of birth and

district municipality (2001) 163Table 7.6 Non-citizen population in the Western Cape, by country of citizenship

(2001) 164Table 7.7 Non-citizen population in the Western Cape, by gender and citizenship

(2001) 165Table 7.8 Demographic indicators (2001) 170Table 8.1 HIV prevalence, by locality type, in the Western Cape (2005) 179Table 8.2 HIV projections for the Western Cape (2006–2010) 184

Table 8.3 Projected AIDS orphans in the Western Cape (2006–2011) 184Table 9.1 National profile of total learner, teacher and school ratios, by type of

school 199Table 9.2 Number and type of schools, teachers and learner–teacher ratio in the

Western Cape (2006) 200Table 9.3 Learners in the Western Cape, by phase (2006) 200Table 9.4 Learners in the Western Cape, by grade (2006) 201

Table 9.5 Proportional indicators of educational levels in the Western Cape (1995 and

2002) 202Table 9.6 Western Cape and total South African population, by racial group

(2001) 202Table 9.7 Source of water supply 203Table 9.8 Source of energy supply 204Table 9.9 Sewage disposal 204

Table 9.10 Site security 204Table 9.11 Employment status of communities (2001) 206Table 9.12 Highest level of education among those aged 20+ years 206Table 9.13 Annual household income (2001) 206

Table 9.14: Occupation, by geographical location (2001) 207Table 9.15 Type of housing unit (2001) 207

Table 9.16 Toilet facilities (2001) 208Table 9.17 Main water supply (2001) 208Table 9.18 Energy source for cooking (2001) 208Table 9.19 Mode of transport (2001) 209

Table 9.20 Provincial HIV prevalence estimates among antenatal clinic attendees in

South Africa (2004–2006) 212Table 9.21 Types of training and workshops on HIV/AIDS attended (2004) 215Table 10.1 Population, GDP and productivity in 16 more developed countries (1870 and

1987) 229Table 10.2 Key indicators of development related to population and economic

growth 231Table 10.3 Population and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries 232

Figure 1.1 Western Cape province and its district municipalities 8Figure 1.2 Total rainfall in South Africa (July 2005–June 2006) 10Figure 1.3 Migration into and within the Western Cape, by district municipality

(1996–2001) 13Figure 1.4 Migrants from other provinces to the Western Cape, by district municipality

(1996–2001) 14Figure 1.5 Migrants within the Western Cape that moved to district municipalities

(1996–2001) 15Figure 1.6 Growth of the Western Cape district municipalities (1996–2001) 16Figure 1.7 Growth by population group in the Western Cape (1996–2001) 16Figure 1.8 Age–sex pyramid for the Western Cape (2007) 18

Figure 1.9 Sex ratios by race for South Africa and the Western Cape (2006) 18Figure 1.10 Educational status of population 20 years and older for South Africa and the

Western Cape (2006) 20Figure 1.11 Unemployment status by province (2006) 21Figure 1.12 Informal dwellings in South Africa and the Western Cape (2002–2006) 21Figure 1.13 Poverty index by province (1996–2001) 22

Figure 3.1 Mosley/Chen model 49Figure 3.2 Mosley/Chen model modified by Barbieri 50Figure 4.1 Population distribution of the City of Cape Town (1996 and 2001) 70Figure 4.2 Completeness of vital registration, by age (2001) and completeness trends in

Cape Town (1996–2004) 73Figure 4.3 Age-specific mortality rates per thousand in Cape Town, by sex

(1996–2004) 75Figure 4.4 Communicable mortality rates per thousand in Cape Town (1996–2004) 76Figure 4.5 Non-communicable mortality rates per thousand in Cape Town

(1996–2004) 77Figure 4.6 Injury mortality rates per thousand in Cape Town (1996–2004) 78Figure 4.7 Ill-defined mortality rates per thousand in Cape Town (1996–2004) 79Figure 4.8 Age-specific female and male mortality rates per thousand in the Central

health district (1996–2004) 80Figure 4.9 Age-specific female and male mortality rates per thousand in the Eastern

health district (1996–2004) 81Figure 4.10 Age-specific female and male mortality rates per thousand in the Khayelitsha

health district (1996–2004) 82Figure 4.11 Age-specific female and male mortality rates per thousand in the Klipfontein

health district (1996–2004) 83Figure 4.12 Age-specific female and male mortality rates per thousand in the Mitchells

Plain health district (1996–2004) 84Figure 4.13 Age-specific female and male mortality rates per thousand in the Northern

Panorama health district (1996–2004) 85

Figure 4.14 Age-specific female and male mortality rates per thousand in the Southern

health district (1996–2004) 86Figure 4.15 Age-specific female and male mortality rates per thousand in the Tygerberg

health district (1996–2004) 87Figure 4.16 Female mortality rates between the ages of 15 and 60 (45M15) for Cape Town

and its eight health districts (1996–2004) 88Figure 4.17 Male mortality rates between the ages of 15 and 60 (45M15) for Cape Town

and its eight health districts (1996–2004) 89Figure 5.1 The nested systems of an ecological approach to child maltreatment 102Figure 5.2 A hierarchy of interventions to improve child protection linked to the eight

elements of the UNICEF protective environment 117Figure 5.3 Formal child protection intervention: processes and outcomes following

needs and risk assessment 119Figure 6.1 Population pyramids of the Western Cape population (2001) 131Figure 6.2 Population pyramids of the Western Cape population (2025) 136Figure 6.3 Projected age structure of the Western Cape population, by population

group (2005–2025) 137Figure 6.4 Projected median age of the Western Cape population, by population group

(2005–2025) 141Figure 6.5 Projected life expectancy at age 65 years of the Western Cape population,

by population group (2005–2025) 142Figure 6.6 Projected ageing index of the Western Cape, by population group

(2005–2025) 143Figure 6.7 Projected old-age dependency ratio of the Western Cape population, by

population group (2005–2025) 144Figure 6.8 Projected potential support ratio of the Western Cape, by population group

(2005–2025) 144Figure 7.1 Population distribution by population group (race) in the Western Cape and

South Africa (2007) 153Figure 7.2 Map of the Western Cape and its district municipalities 154Figure 7.3 Foreign-born persons from Africa and Europe, by province (2001) 159Figure 7.4 Foreign-born population in the Western Cape, by sex and race (2001) 162Figure 7.5 Age-sex pyramids of the non-citizen population of the Western Cape

(2001) 166Figure 7.6 Spatial distribution of the non-citizen population in the Western Cape district

municipalities (2001) 168Figure 7.7 Distribution of the non-citizen population in Cape Town, by citizenship

(2001) 168Figure 7.8 Age-sex pyramids for the Western Cape native population and non-citizen

population (2001) 169Figure 8.1 HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees in the Western Cape

compared with South Africa (1990–2006) 177

Figure 8.3 HIV prevalence in non-metropolitan areas of the Western Cape (2001 and

2006) 179Figure 8.4 National HIV prevalence, by age and sex (2005) 180Figure 8.5 HIV prevalence, by age group, in the Western Cape (2000–2006) 180Figure 8.6 HIV prevalence among the group aged 15–24 years in the Western Cape

(2001–2005) 182Figure 8.7 Top 10 causes of premature mortality years of life lost (YLL) for Cape Town

(2004) 183Figure 8.8 Age-standardised death rate for TB, HIV+TB and HIV in Cape Town, by area

(2001 and 2004) 183Figure 8.9 TB incidence and HIV prevalence in the Western Cape (1997–2006) 186Figure 8.10 Trends in the enrolment of antiretroviral patients in the Western Cape (April

This book would not have been possible without the support of the Department of Social Development (DSD), Western Cape Provincial Government The Director for Research and Population Development, Mr Gavin Miller, suggested the title of the report and provided support at every stage of the project from its conceptualisation, ensuring that funds were available, signing submissions and suggesting some of the authors Without him, the book would not have become a reality My sincere gratitude goes to him.

I am also indebted to Statistics South Africa for providing much of the data on which the studies are based

I am very grateful for having Koleka Lubelwana, Sharon Follentine, Mr Juan Smith and all the other senior managers in the Western Cape DSD as my leaders and colleagues and wish to thank them for their support and belief in my ability

It has been an honour to work with my eminent co-editors, Prof Cornie Groenewald and Prof Sam Gaisie

I wish to thank the authors for their ability and hard work, for submitting chapters

on time and for their patience with my endless demands I feel honoured to have worked with this group, and thank them for trusting me with their intellectual property

I would like to thank the reviewers; Dr Benjamin Häefele, Crystal Prince and Leigh Johnson, for taking the time to read and comment on some of the chapters

I am grateful for the support of specialists who did the first stage of proofreading and styling – Peter Nortje and Neall Fourie; and David Green and Lindsay Redcliffe for designing policy briefs

Last but not least, my gratitude goes to my family in Germany, Zimbabwe, Australia and Botswana for their unconditional support

45M15 Number of deaths per thousand

AsgiSA Accelerated Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa

KPA Kilimanjaro Programme of Action for African Population and Self-reliant

RHRU Reproductive Heath and HIV Research Unit of the University of the

Witwatersrand

StatsSA Statistics South Africa

Ravayi Marindo

The main purpose in writing the State of the population in the Western Cape province

report is to bring together various topics on population and development in order to evaluate and monitor the progress of the Western Cape province in implementing the national population policy (DSD 1998)

By using official statistics, the report aims to create awareness of the role of population in the development process, the usefulness and importance of official statistics and the intersectoral nature of population Population is central to sustainable development; it is both a response variable and an impacting variable

For policy-makers, decision-makers and planners, understanding population is critical

Ultimately, all decisions, policies and plans must aim to improve the quality of life of all people and populations The syllable ‘demo’ in the word ‘demography’ means ‘the people’ Without understanding the state of the population or the variables impacting and impacted on by population, how can we adequately plan a better life for people?

From the perspective of the Department of Social Development, the state of the population report identifies and highlights variables that reflect vulnerability at population level What makes population vulnerable? In the context of this report, the following are identified and highlighted:

• The population history of the province, which determines current population growth and dynamics, the numbers of people in various racial groups and where they are settled, the distribution of resources and the policies and frameworks

• The levels, trends and determinants of child and adult death and mortality, especially the identification of those at high risk, highlighting the limitations imposed by the data

• The levels, trends and determinants of child maltreatment, identifying factors that increase the risks of child maltreatment and highlighting the need for more data

• The inevitability of population ageing, creating population vulnerability, highlighting that the levels, trends and determinants of ageing and social service requirements point to the vulnerability of the provincial population

• The prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS infections and the challenges of implementing prevention measures that actually have positive impact

• The demographic characteristics of non-citizen populations and their impact on the native population; their unacknowledged characteristics, which can create certain needs within the population

• The policies and frameworks used in the educational sector, in spatial planning,

in development planning and in integrating population and development

The focus on vulnerability played a critical role in the selection of topics covered in the report This approach justified the exclusion of fertility from the report Although teenage childbearing is an indication of vulnerability, childbearing in general in any population is not necessarily a negative event Data limitations led to the exclusion

of two critical topics from the report, namely migration and poverty The reliance on census data resulted in data limitations, which made the writing of these two chapters problematic.

The report addresses a number of national and provincial mandates that are critical

to development in South Africa Firstly, in addition to its role in monitoring and evaluating the implementation of the South African population policy, the report contributes to realising the constitutional goal that ‘Everyone has the right of access

to any information held by the state’ (South African Constitution, Act No 108 of 1996: chapter 2, article 32 (1)(a)) By bringing together data and information on population and development in the Western Cape, this report is an attempt by the Department of Social Development to create awareness and provide information to stakeholders.Secondly, quite closely related to article 32 is the Department of Social Development’s integrated service delivery model (ISDM) Emanating from a vision of creating a self-reliant society, the ISDM is a framework that aims to provide a ‘comprehensive network of social development services that enable and empower the poor, the vulnerable and those with special needs’ (DSD 2007: 6) The framework identifies four levels of intervention – awareness and prevention, early intervention, statutory intervention and re-integration

By providing population information for the Western Cape province, this report addresses the first level of intervention, which is creating awareness By bringing together various population development issues, the report creates awareness of the role of population in influencing sustainable development

The report therefore addresses the integrated service delivery model by providing population information and creating awareness of the role of population in development and service delivery

The third mandate is related to the United Nations (UN) Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), to which South Africa is a signatory The MDGs were adopted by UN member states in 2000 This report on the state of the population in the Western Cape addresses three of the MDGs:

• MDG 2: Achieve universal primary education (addressed in chapter 9)

• MDG 4: Reduce child mortality (addressed in chapter 3)

• MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases (addressed in chapter 8).These particular chapters provide information on levels and trends, thereby giving readers some idea of how far South Africa has progressed in addressing the MDGs, as well as critically evaluating some of the factors that might impede the achievement of MDG targets The chapters also identify the gaps to be addressed if the targets are to

be met

A fourth mandate emanates from the iKapa Elihlumayo growth and development

strategy for the Western Cape, which may be considered to be a 2014 vision of

a sustainable ‘Home for All’ in the province It addresses the need for shared growth and integrated sustainable development, improved economic and social opportunities, greater equality, and better access to assets, resources and healthy living environments

Spatial development framework

The spatial development framework identifies the areas where growth is taking place and where it should take place in the future in terms of a sustainable development paradigm The state of the population report provides a clear description of where population is growing in the province Since population is one of the drivers of development, the report provides critical information that informs the provincial spatial development framework

Human capital development strategy

The chapter on population and education (chapter 9) discusses some aspects of early childhood development and basic and primary education, highlighting certain of the constraints to achieving good quality education for all in the Western Cape To further highlight the challenges of human capital development, the state of the population report discusses the impact of HIV on the education sector

Social capital formation strategy

How is the province’s population growing? How diverse is the provincial population?

Where do the foreign-born and non-citizen populations come from? How numerous are they and where are they settled? What is contributing to the population growth rate of provincial cities and towns? All these questions linked to the human capital formation strategy are addressed in the state of the population report

Burden of disease and health care

Three chapters in the report address issues related to the burden of disease, two from

a mortality perspective (chapters 3 and 4) and one from a health-care perspective (chapter 8) The chapters begin by providing useful data and then highlighting the increasingly critical challenges created by changing population dynamics and their impact on the burden of disease, as well as the challenges of ensuring the provision

of quality health care for all the diverse populations of the Western Cape in the face

of HIV/AIDS

South African population policy

The population policy provides a comprehensive and multisectoral framework for addressing population issues that are critical to achieving sustainable development

The report addresses the following major concerns raised by the population policy:

• The limited systematic use of population data in implementing, monitoring and evaluating development plans and programmes for the entire population (chapter 2)

• Population ageing (chapter 6).

• Rising incidences of sexually transmitted diseases, especially HIV/AIDS (chapter 8)

This short summary contextualises the report within both national and provincial mandates Although the report does not cover all aspects of population and sustainable development, it provides a starting point and a broad base for policy-makers, as well as anyone interested in population, to begin a critical discussion of the role of population in sustainable development and service provision

Brief summaries of the chapters in the report

Prof Cornie Groenewald (in chapter 1) gives a demographic overview of the Western Cape province, focusing on the population dynamics of population growth, fertility, mortality and migration He mainly uses census data and sets the context for the other chapters in the report

Shahid Solomon (in chapter 2) writes that South Africa provides one of the most striking examples of politically inspired planning in Africa His chapter focuses on the various frameworks and policies that drive both development planning and spatial planning His overview discusses the policy changes that occur when a country moves from interventionist to democratic planning He also discusses the population legacy of apartheid planning, and concludes by stating that although much has been achieved post 1994 to integrate population into planning, there is further need for the following: making the link between population and planning more managerial, tackling departmentalism with outcome measurement, and building and strengthening the population research capacity of local government

Although the Western Cape generally experiences lower child and adult mortality than other provinces in South Africa, indications from the data suggest that both child

and adult mortality have increased in the recent past Nancy Stiegler (in chapter 3)

uses vital registration data to show that child mortality has been increasing since

1998 She also uses other studies published in the Western Cape to provide a profile

of children at high risk of child mortality Using registration data from the City of

Cape Town, Nesbert Zinyakatira (in chapter 4) presents findings showing that adult

mortality has also been on the increase in recent years He identifies locations that are at risk of high adult mortality Both authors independently conclude that the increases in child and adult mortality could be attributed to increasing HIV/AIDS deaths

Prof Andrew Dawes and Dr Catherine Ward’s chapter (chapter 5) provides

considerable background information on the various local and international policies, frameworks, rights and other legal instruments for protecting children from maltreatment Despite limitations in the data, the authors are able to use existing data to indicate that the problem of child maltreatment is a matter of concern in the Western Cape and to suggest ways in which the Department of Social Development could address the problems of child maltreatment through its 10-year strategy More than any other chapter in the report, this chapter demonstrates that reliable data are critical for making sound policy decisions influencing the well-being of children in the province

Ageing is unavoidable and prevalent among all the population groups of the Western

Cape In her chapter on ageing (chapter 6), Dr Bärbel Haldenwang discusses the

demographic drivers of ageing and shows, through an analysis of data as well as projections by the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA), the various indicators of ageing, both at present and in the future In the sections on service provision, she discusses the increasing need for social and retirement pensions, health-care services, housing and living arrangements She concludes that ‘population ageing in the Western Cape province is a demographic reality; it is pervasive, profound, enduring and largely irreversible The social and economic impact of population ageing should

be regarded as both an opportunity and a challenge’ The benefits of ageing include the wealth of skills and experience that can be brought to the workplace, public life and the family

Dr Ravayi Marindo (in chapter 7) presents demographic indicators of non-citizen and foreign-born populations in the Western Cape Using census data, she shows that the proportion of non-citizen population is quite small, but nevertheless has a significant impact because of its concentration in the City of Cape Town Her data analysis shows that the non-citizen population differs demographically from the native South African population Non-citizens from Africa tend to be young males, suggesting labour migration, while non-citizens from Europe tend to be both male and female, and over the age of 60 years, suggesting retirement migration She concludes that the socioeconomic implications of the characteristics of the non-citizen population mean that the Western Cape is experiencing a double socio-demographic burden – that

of creating employment for young, able-bodied black African males, as well as the burden of increasing numbers of aged persons through retirement migration

Dr Najma Shaikh (in chapter 8) gives a comprehensive account of the status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Western Cape, starting with a history of the epidemic

in South Africa She then presents HIV-prevalence rates for the whole country and for the Western Cape and highlights HIV-prevalence levels by metropolitan health districts The chapter also considers age and gender differences related to HIV incidence and HIV/AIDS-related mortality Dr Shaikh uses the 2003 ASSA model

of the impact of HIV/AIDS and ends with a detailed account of the health sector’s response to the epidemic, in which she discusses the prevention strategies of community mobilisation, condom use, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention

of mother-to-child transmission, life skills and peer education, antiretroviral therapy, post-exposure prophylaxis and sexually transmitted infections

Dr Jean Baxen (in chapter 9) focuses on the impact of HIV/AIDS on the education sector She begins by presenting the national frameworks, policies and legal instruments that guide South African schools Data from the Department of Education are then used to identify and highlight the factors that influence education in the Western Cape, including learner–teacher ratios, types of schools and learners by grade She gives a broad overview of school funding and access to schooling Her paper identifies various household indicators that affect the educational outcomes

of learners, including poverty, employment status, annual household income, occupation, type of housing unit, toilet and water supply, energy and mode of transport

At the level of the individual child, Dr Baxen identifies risk factors that lead to poor performance, including the incidence of child hunger, substance and alcohol abuse,

HIV prevalence, educator attrition and mortality, and poor access to social services She ends the chapter by discussing the implications for population development and education, addressing issues of quality, progress and accountability, education needs and priorities, and going beyond the issue of physical access to education.

‘Demographic variables are both determinants and consequences of development’, states Prof Sam Gaisie in his chapter on population development from a global

perspective (chapter 10) Using data and information from United Nations reports, Prof Gaisie shows that understanding the interrelationships between population and development is not limited to population issues, but enhances knowledge about the economic and social development of a country The chapter places South Africa within the global context

Western Cape: an overview

Cornie Groenewald

Introduction

This chapter provides an overview of the main features of the Western Cape province and its current population, and serves as a background for in-depth analysis of specific population aspects and their relation to development The salient features

of population are described in the context of the location, physical features and development status of the Western Cape vis-à-vis the rest of South Africa The dynamic aspects of population are described, where possible, by comparing data over time and across space and social groupings and pointing out trends, differences and similarities Official data sources, produced by the South African statistics office (StatsSA) and similar public offices, were used Data that had already been processed and published, whether in print or electronic format, were mostly consulted, and the author’s own calculations were applied sparingly

Location and population

The Western Cape is one of nine provinces that make up the Republic of South Africa It is located in the south-western part of the country and is the southernmost part of the continent of Africa Before 1994, under the apartheid regime, it formed part of the Cape Province After 1994, the Cape Province was divided into three new provinces, namely the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape The current Western Cape province is now bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the west and south-west, the Indian Ocean to the south and south-east, the Eastern Cape to the east, and the Northern Cape to the north

The province has a land surface of 129 307 km² (StatsSA 2006)and an estimated population of 5 278 585 according to the Community Survey conducted by Statistics South Africa in 2007, which also gives a population density of 40.8 persons per square kilometre (StatsSA 2007d) The south-western parts, surrounding the City

of Cape Town, accommodate most of the population and display higher density ratios With a growth rate of 5.3% in 2004, the Western Cape outperformed the national South African economic performance of 4.5% (PERO 2006) The land surface represents 10.6% of the nation’s total surface area and 10.9% of the population The Western Cape’s contribution to national gross domestic product (GDP) in 2004 was 14.56% (PERO 2006)

The province is divided into a single metropolitan area (the City of Cape Town) and the five district municipalities of West Coast, Central Karoo, Overberg, Eden and Cape Winelands The five district municipalities are in turn divided into 24 local municipalities The area, population and densities of these district municipalities are given in Table 1.1 for the years 1996 and 2001

Table 1.1 Surface area and population of the Western Cape, by district municipality (1996 and 2001)

Figure 1.1 Western Cape province and its district municipalities

Source: Produced by R Daniels, Western Cape Provincial Population Unit, August 2007

The eastern inland boundaries of the Western Cape exhibit a remarkable coincidence with an imaginary line known during the apartheid era as the ‘Eiselen line’, or the Western Cape substitution line The line indicated an area to the west of this imagined line as a coloured labour preference area (Eiselen n.d.; Giliomee & Schlemmer

1985; 3; Smit & Booysen 1981: 32) During the apartheid era, if black Africans did

not qualify in terms of the Natives (Urban Areas) Act (No 21 of 1923) and its later amendments and enactments, their movement to the ‘western province’, as this area was referred to then, was strongly controlled by influx control measures, and those who tried to settle in the area were forcibly removed

The northern boundary of the current Western Cape has less of a political history and came about more as a remnant of development considerations that gave existence

to the erstwhile Regional Development Areas of the 1980s (Bridgman et al 1992: 2)

In this sense, the Western Cape coincides by and large with the old region A of the Cape Province of the apartheid period, with the exception of the far northern part known as Namaqualand, which was allocated to the Northern Cape province in 1994

The Western Cape’s current boundaries with adjoining provinces and its internal subdivisions according to district municipalities are shown on the map in Figure 1.1

Physical features

According to a description by Bekker (2002: 5), the biophysical landscape of the province may be depicted as threefold:

• a coastal plain that skirts the province between the coastline and the uplands and the mountains;

• mountain-valley landscapes that run broadly parallel to the coastline and produce much of the province’s annual rainfall;

• the plains of the Great Karoo that stretch far beyond the boundaries of the province and tend towards desertification

Using this classification of the province into landscapes, three regions may be identified, each of which supports typical agricultural activities and economies centred in and around towns and cities and within their districts (Bekker 2002: 5)

In correspondence to the three landscapes, the first region may be described as

the arid interior and arid coastal plains of the West Coast Sector economies in

this region are narrow and stagnant, populations are scattered, services are often inadequate, and settlements are small and widely spaced Bekker (2002: 5) estimates that less than 10% of the province’s total population live in this region

The second region can be described as moist grain lands and fishing rim-land

These are situated on the coastal plain on the seaward side of the Cape Fold Belt mountains, which include the Swartland and Overberg ranges It is estimated that less than 15% of the province’s total population live in this region, and most of these residents are economically dependent on agrarian staples such as rain-fed wheat, barley, rye and related small stock farming, fishing and tourism

The third region is described as wet mountain and valley lands and Outeniqua-land

This region comprises three areas associated with the mountains of the Cape Fold Belt – Outeniqua,1 the Cape Winelands and the City of Cape Town Bekker estimates that collectively they cover about 18% of the province’s land area and are home to over three million people, representing the vast majority (more than 80%) of the province’s population

1 Outeniqua broadly refers to the eastern part of the Cape Fold Belt mountains, located on the south coast from Mossel Bay to Nature’s Valley.

The rainfall pattern, as mapped for 2005/2006 (see Figure 1.2), illustrates the validity

of this threefold division High rainfall occurs along the south-western coastal areas and mountain range, the south coast and the eastern parts of the province Most of the north-western coast and associated inland area, on the plateau, suffer from low

to very low rainfall In comparison to the rest of the country, the Western Cape hosts significant surface areas with either high or low rainfalls

Figure 1.2 Total rainfall in South Africa (July 2005–June 2006)

Source: Everatt & Smith (2006b)

Population dynamics

As already noted, the current population of the Western Cape is estimated to be about 5.3 million people The Western Cape’s share of the estimated current total national population (of 48 502 063) grew from 9.7% in 1996 to 10.9% in 2007 (see Table 1.2) The Western Cape is one of only two provinces that have strengthened their share over this period; the other is the province of Gauteng The Western Cape’s population growth rate per annum over the inter-census period of 1996–2001 was 2.7%, which is higher than the national growth rate of 2.0% Since 2001, the growth rate of the Western Cape population has declined fractionally to 2.6%, while the South African growth rate has declined significantly to just 1.3%

Population growth per year (%)

Source: StatsSA (2007d)

The Western Cape has the lowest total fertility rate (TFR) in the country, estimated

at 2.28 children per woman and lower than the TFR for Gauteng, the second lowest

in the country, at 2.41 children per woman These estimates are valid for the years 2001–2005 (StatsSA 2007c: 1) According to estimates based on the 1996 census, the overall South African TFR was 3.3 The South African Demographic and Health Survey (SADHS) of 1998 reports a national TFR of 2.9, and the SADHS of 2003

a figure of 2.0 (DoH 2004: 7–8) Assuming that the data are reliable, there is an indication of a decreasing national trend

There is controversy about fertility figures The Western Cape TFR figure, according

to StatsSA estimates for 2001–2005, was reported to be 2.28 children per woman, while the figure for the same period using birth registrations was 2.19 children per woman (StatsSA 2007c: 21) According to the SADHS 2003 (DoH 2004: 7–8), the Western Cape’s TFR is 2.6, which is significantly higher than both the vital registration estimate and the census estimate by StatsSA These figures all report the situation

as it existed in 2003, but reflect discrepancies that may be due more to insufficient sampling and non-reliable reporting than to real differences Differences can also arise from the different estimation methods used, and their assumptions The Western Cape is increasingly gaining population as a result of in-migration from provinces with higher fertility levels than its own, for example, from the Eastern Cape (Table 1.3) It can therefore be expected that fertility figures will rise over time Further research is needed to establish the real patterns

Mortality figures are not published widely for the provinces in South Africa The

SADHS of 2003 reports an infant mortality rate (IMR)2 of 43.5 for the Western Cape, which is marginally higher than the national figure of 42.5 According to the SADHS

of 1998, the IMR was then 45.0, which shows that no significant changes occurred during the period between the two measures However, these figures are significantly lower than those of a decade ago or more In 1996 the IMR was 56.0, and in 1990, 55.0, according to sources quoted by Udjo et al (2000) Comparative figures among the provinces show that the IMR in the Western Cape ranks fourth from the top, with the Eastern Cape, North West and Free State in the higher positions

The Western Cape has the highest average life expectancy at birth of all South African provinces, while sharing a national scenario of decreasing life expectancy due to higher mortality rates associated with the HIV/AIDS pandemic The current

2 Infant mortality is defined as the number of deaths of infants (one year of age or younger) per 1 000 live births (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infant_mortality).

life expectancy at birth of over 60 years for both males and females is expected to decrease to just below 60 years in the Western Cape (StatsSA 2007a: Figures 2 & 3).The Western Cape is experiencing population growth regardless of these trends,

as shown in Table 1.2 This may be ascribed largely to positive net migration (see Table 1.3)

Table 1.3 Estimated migration into and out of the Western Cape (2001–2006 and 2006–2011)

Note: Here and elsewhere in this chapter, EC = Eastern Cape; FS = Free State; G = Gauteng; KZN = KwaZulu-Natal;

L = Limpopo; M = Mpumalanga; NC = Northern Cape; NW = North West; WC = Western Cape

Source: StatsSA 2007a

During the period 2001–2006, it is estimated that the Western Cape lost just under

120 000 population members to out-migration, but gained three times more through in-migration to the province, producing a net migration gain of more than 240 000 people Most of the population losses through migration were to Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, and to a lesser extent to the Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal The province gained mostly from the Eastern Cape, secondly from Gauteng, and to a lesser extent from the Northern Cape The same trends are expected to continue during 2006–2011, but at a lower volume The net migration is expected to decrease

to below 200 000 during the period The Western Cape is therefore expected

The constant but declining stream of migrants to and from the Eastern Cape, in contrast, is typical of what may be called ‘early and late transitional society’ In this respect, the Eastern Cape can be defined as the ‘periphery’ and the Western

Cape as the ‘centre’, where the periphery contains mainly push factors, and the

centre mainly pull factors in the migration stream The early transition society is typically characterised by differentiation of the centre and periphery and incipient industrialisation, while the late transition society sees the emergence of subdominant centres and major industrialisation These expected migratory patterns to a large extent explain the increasing diversity to be expected within the Western Cape’s society and economy It may be equally likely, therefore, to expect some stagnation

of positive demographic trends in the Western Cape, for example, fertility rates may not fall as low as predicted, life expectancy may drop, and levels of poverty may increase

Figure 1.3 Migration into and within the Western Cape, by district municipality (1996–2001)

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

%

City of Cape Town

Migratory dynamics within the Western Cape are equally revealing Firstly, the province’s population is over-concentrated in the City of Cape Town, where more than 60% of the people reside (see Table 1.1) Cape Winelands, Eden and Overberg each have relatively large but minority proportions of population West Coast and Central Karoo, which have the largest land surface areas, house the smallest populations The City of Cape Town attracts the largest and majority proportion of migrants from other provinces to the Western Cape This is also true for internal migration within the province; the metropolitan area attracts the majority of migrants coming from other district municipalities The only two significant attractor district municipalities, apart from the City of Cape Town, are Eden, which attracted a sizeable proportion of migrants from other provinces, and Cape Winelands, which gained migrants from other district municipalities (see Figure 1.3) Both Cape Winelands and Eden attract a sizeable number of foreign-born immigrants compared with the other district municipalities However, the City of Cape Town – as a residential destination – continues to receive the lion’s share of all international immigrants.

Figure 1.4 Migrants from other provinces to the Western Cape, by district municipality (1996–2001)

Note: 1996 = 100 Source: StatsSA (2006)

An analysis of annual trends shows very similar patterns for all the district municipalities The non-metropolitan municipalities, except for Central Karoo, multiplied their proportional intra-migration from other provinces (see Figure 1.4) between 1996 and 2001 more than sixfold, which is higher than the metropolitan

figure The internal pattern (that is, migration within the Western Cape’s internal districts) (see Figure 1.5) is different, as the metropolitan area has gained more than eightfold its numbers over the period Central Karoo gained more than tenfold its

1996 numbers from other districts The other non-metropolitan municipalities also gained six- to eightfold their base numbers These figures confirm that the Western Cape population is continually growing and strengthening through inter-provincial

as well as intra-district migration The trend is towards stronger concentrations of population in urban areas, especially the metropolitan district of the City of Cape Town It should be noted that urban areas across the province, in all districts, are gaining population Similarly, there is no indication that non-urban areas are growing negatively, although they have slower growth rates than urban areas

Figure 1.5 Migrants within the Western Cape that moved to district municipalities (1996–2001)

Note: 1996 = 100 Source: StatsSA (2006)

The Western Cape is therefore experiencing high population growth rates, particularly

on the coastal plains and mountain-valley landscapes The district municipalities of Overberg, West Coast and Eden, which are located in these areas, are showing high annual growth rates, according to Figure 1.6, while Central Karoo shows a far lower growth rate

These main trends and patterns of population migration in the Western Cape are derived from census data for the inter-census period of 1996–2001 The main aim

of this chapter is to provide overall trends and patterns A further analysis of the migration figures discussed will therefore be necessary to unravel the complex patterns, with respect to the different district municipalities and geophysical and socioeconomic areas, and to gain a deeper understanding of the movement of people

Figure 1.6 Growth of the Western Cape district municipalities (1996–2001)

6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Source: Western Cape (n.d.)

The population group that is proportionately adding the most to the Western Cape’s population is black Africans, showing an annual growth rate (over the 1996–2001 inter-census period) of 7.9% within the province (see Figure 1.7) Because of this high growth rate, black Africans have now become the second largest group in the Western Cape, the largest being the coloured population group (see Table 1.5)

Figure 1.7 Growth by population group in the Western Cape (1996–2001)

10 8 6 4 2 0

%

7.9

0.3

Source: Western Cape (n.d.)

2.2 2.6

Population composition

Looking at the age–sex composition, some subtypes of population can be distinguished within the Western Cape population On the one hand, the population seems to be maturing The age category 0–14 represents less than 30% of the total population, while the senior citizen category is almost 6% The median age is

27.7 years, with females slightly older than males The dependency ratio3 (at 47%) does not seem to be high (see Table 1.4) The Western Cape is also targeted as a retirement destination

Table 1.4 Population estimate for the Western Cape (2007)

3 The dependency ratio is the ratio of the economically dependent part of the population to the productive part The economically dependent part is recognised to be children who are too young to work and individuals that are too old

to work, that is, generally, individuals under the age of 15 and over the age of 65 The productive part makes up the gap in between, namely those aged 15–64 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependency_ratio).

migration As from 40 years of age, the sex ratio diminishes, which can be explained

in terms of either high male mortality or male out-migration The circulation of labour

as a typical migration pattern of early and late transition economies supports this explanation The highlighted features are illustrated in Figure 1.8

Figure 1.8 Age–sex pyramid for the Western Cape (2007)

85+

80–84 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–4

Male Female

Figure 1.9 Sex ratios by race for South Africa and the Western Cape (2006)

110 105 100 95 90

Note: Here and elsewhere in this chapter, SA = South Africa

Marked differences exist between the Western Cape and South Africa as a whole with regard to the racial composition of the population in the 1996 and 2001 censuses and the Community Survey of 2007 (see Table 1.5)

Table 1.5 Population, by population group, for South Africa and the Western Cape (1996, 2001 and 2007)

As a result of the change in population group composition, home language patterns are also changing (see Table 1.6) Afrikaans is the dominant language, but isiXhosa

is spoken by almost 25% of the population This is higher than the percentage of isiXhosa speakers in the rest of South Africa The largest concentration of isiXhosa speakers in the Western Cape is to be found in the City of Cape Town Sizeable proportions of isiXhosa speakers are also found in the districts of Cape Winelands, Overberg and Eden Afrikaans is still dominant in the rural districts, but is no longer a majority language in the City of Cape Town

Table 1.6 Language composition for South Africa and the Western Cape, by district municipality (2001)

Figure 1.10 Educational status of population 20 years and older for South Africa and the Western Cape (2006)

WC SA 30

te 1–3Grade 12Grade 11Grade 10Grade 9Grade 8Grade 7Grade 6Grade 5Grade 4

Grade 0–3

None

The Western Cape has the lowest unemployment figure of all the provinces (see Figure 1.11) The 18% unemployment rate is also substantially lower than the 25% unemployed in Gauteng, which is the next lowest provincial unemployment figure in the country

Figure 1.11 Unemployment status by province (2006)

40 30 20 10 0

Figure 1.12 Informal dwellings in South Africa and the Western Cape (2002–2006)

25 20 15 10 5 0

Figure 1.13 Poverty index by province (1996–2001)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Summary and conclusions

The Western Cape is different in a number of ways from the other provinces of South Africa Due to its history, it is the only province in the country where black Africans are not a majority group In-migration and inter-district migration have led

to changes in the minority status of black Africans and consequently to changes in the demography and social characteristics of the province The provincial population

is also growing strongly, and it is expected that this trend will continue, mainly as

a result of in-migration Due to low HIV infection rates, mortality rates have not increased dramatically There are indications that fertility rates are decreasing and are reflecting a low but varying pattern Poverty is relatively low but on the increase,

as reflected in the increase in informal dwellings The province has a low level of unemployment relative to other provinces and a high level of scholastic achievement The Western Cape’s development status could be regarded as becoming increasingly mixed, with strong indications of moving towards an advanced industrial economy but also hosting elements of a transitional society

The unique population dynamics of the Western Cape pose diversified challenges for service provision and development in the province The population is both growing and maturing Provision needs to be made simultaneously for both a potentially younger and older population Because the growth of the population will be due more to in-migration than to natural increase, the needs will be for a younger population not adapted to its newly acquired environment and requiring basic social and health facilities for survival and the maintenance of a decent quality of life These include health facilities, housing, education and employment The challenge

is to assimilate and integrate incomers to the province with existing communities, and to create conditions in which they contribute fully to the economy These newcomers will join towns and cities more readily than rural populations, causing the responsibility for hosting and accommodating them to rest squarely on the shoulders