building resilience adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods most at risk to climate change impacts in central viet nam

97 ANNEX 5: NATIONAL POLICY SETTING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ...101 ANNEX 6: LIVELIHOOD TABLES ...107 ANNEX 7: VILLAGE MAPS ...113 ANNEX 8: CLIMATE HAZARD TRENDS OBSERVED BY VILLAGE

Building Resilience

Ha Noi, 2010

Adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods most at risk to climate change impacts in

Central Viet Nam

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT

POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECT

Building Resilience:

Adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods most at risk to climate change impacts in Central Viet Nam

Ha Noi, 2010

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT

POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECT

Copyright 2010 by Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) and United Nations

Development Programme (UNDP)Published in Vietnamese and English with the approval of MONRE and UNDP

Publishing license number:

Responsible for contents:

Assoc Prof Dr Truong Manh Tien

Acronyms

ACRONYMS iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ix

A EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

A.1 Approaching coastal livelihoods in a changing climate 1

A 2 Addressing issues of scale .1

A 3 Supporting equitable adaptation .2

A 4 Migration and relocation as livelihood diversification 3

A 5 Hard and soft infrastructure 3

A 6 Sectoral climate-resilient approaches 4

B INTRODUCTION 5

B.1 Objectives and research questions 5

B.2 Methodology 5

B.3 Conceptual approaches employed 6

B.4 Climate change effects 8

B.5 Vulnerability to climate change .9

B.6 Policy and institutional context 10

B.7 Additional stresses posed by climate change 10

C RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS 13

C.1 Introduction to study sites 13

C 2 Overview of livelihood activities in study areas 14

C 2.1 Location and livelihoods 14

C 2.2 People’s perception of poverty 17

C.3 Water and livelihoods 19

C.4 Analysis of dominant livelihoods and livelihood changes 20

C 4.1 Dominant livelihoods 20

C 4.2 Declining asset quality: agriculture 22

C 4.3 Declining asset quality: fishing and aquaculture 22

C 4.4 Responding to declining livelihood assets: migration 24

C.5 The role of institutions in livelihood change 25

C 5.1 Effects of external interventions 25

C 5.2 Social capital and livelihoods 27

C.6 Resource degradation as a driver of livelihood change 27

C 6.1 Livelihood and resource changes 27

C 6.2 Overall decline in quantity and quality of aquatic products 28

C 6.3 Pollution, climatic hazards, and the declining productivity of the aquaculture sector 30

D LOCAL PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE HAZARDS AND RISKS TO LIVELIHOODS AND CURRENT LOCAL RESPONSES 33

D.1 Local perception of climatic hazards and trends 33

Table of Contents

D.2 Local perceptions of hazard impacts on livelihoods 33

D 3 Current climate change coping and adaptation strategies 34

D 3.1 Local adaptation 34

D 3.2 Improvements to infrastructure 35

D.4 Current impacts of climate change on habitat 36

D 5 Likely future impacts 37

D 5.1 Increasing climatic fluctuations 38

D 5.2 Impacts of projected sea level rise 40

D 5.3 SLR 2100 inundation impacts on predominantly agricultural livelihood zones: Quang An and Hong Loc 43

D 5.4 SLR 2100 inundation impacts on predominantly fishing and aquaculture livelihood zones: Vinh Hien and Ky Ninh 43

D 5.5 Sea level rise: potential livelihood ‘winners’ and ‘losers’? 48

D 6 Current emergency responses to hazards 50

D 6.1 Hazard vulnerability – who is most at risk? 50

D 6.2 ‘Disaster response’: preparation for and responses to hazards 52

D 6.3 Preparing for the future? 55

E RECOMMENDATIONS: ACHIEVING A CLIMATE-RESILIENT FUTURE 57

E 1 Livelihood pathways 57

E 1.1 Adaptive strategies for three pathways 57

E 1.2 Tailoring adaptive strategies 57

E 1.3 Redefinition of the mandate of rural extension services 58

E 1.4 Balancing regional and local objectives 58

E 1.5 Adopting a regional approach to community-based coastal natural resource management (CBCNRM) 59

E 1.6 Infrastructure versus living structures 59

E 1.7 ‘Managed retreat’ 59

E 1.8 New infrastructure as new livelihood opportunity 60

E 1.9 Social ecologies require spatial planning 61

E 1.10 Climate change and health 61

E 1.11 Human capital and migration 61

E 2 Adaptive strategies for climate-resilient livelihoods 62

E 2.1 Building climate-resilient agriculture 62

E 2.2 Building climate-resilient fishing and aquaculture 62

E 2.3 General support for building climate-resilient livelihoods 63

E 2.4 Wider measures to minimise impacts of climate change on the livelihood resource-base 63

E 2.5 Improving water storage and management 63

E 2.6 Mainstreaming emergency response planning into provincial and district planning processes and assist awareness-raising 64

E 2.7 Planning and managing early responses to sea-level rise 64

E 2.8 Improving resettlement processes for vulnerable households and communities 64

E 2.9 Building adaptive strategies for temporary migrants 65

E 2.10 Building adaptive strategies for permanent migrants 65

BIBLIOGRAPHY 67

ANNEX 1 METHODOLOGY 75

ANNEX 2: CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AS USED IN THE STUDY 79

ANNEX 3: METHODOLOGY USED IN PREPARATION OF GIS MAP 95

ANNEX 4: ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORKS 97

ANNEX 5: NATIONAL POLICY SETTING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 101

ANNEX 6: LIVELIHOOD TABLES .107

ANNEX 7: VILLAGE MAPS 113

ANNEX 8: CLIMATE HAZARD TRENDS OBSERVED BY VILLAGERS 119

ANNEX 9: SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STUDY SITES .121

ANNEX 10: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS: IMAGINING A DIFFERENT URBAN FUTURE 155

FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1: Sustainable Livelihoods Framework 7

Figure 2: Four study sites - Hong Loc Commune in Loc Ha District and Ky Ninh commune in Ky Anh District (Ha Tinh Province); Quang An Commune in Quang Dien District, and Vinh Hien Commune in Phu Loc District (Thua Thien Hue Province) 13

Figure 3: Land use map of Hong Loc Commune, Ha Tinh Province (classified from SPOT, 2007) showing location of villages included in study 15

Figure 4: Spot 2007 land use map for Ky Ninh Commune, Ha Tinh Province showing location of villages included in study 16

Figure 5: Land use map of Quang An Commune, Thua Thien Hue Province 16

Figure 6: Land use map for Vinh Hien Commune, Thua Thien Hue Province (derived from SPOT image, 2007), showing location of villages included in study 17

Figure 7: Analysis of capital assets at village level in study village, Thua Thien Hue 21

Figure 8: Poor and virtually landless – the situation of the elderly 22

Figure 9: Map of Vinh Hien Commune, showing nò sáo distribution and navigation routes IMOLA, 2009 27

Figure 10: Near-shore fishing socio-ecological cycle 29

Figure 11: Problem tree produced by group of river and lagoon fishermen, Hien Hoa II village, Vinh Hien Commune, TT Hue 30

Figure 12: Flow chart outlining of shrimp production (aquaculture) problem in Thang Loi Village, Ky Ninh Commune, Ha Tinh Province 31

Figure 13: Poor female-headed household, still affected by the trauma of a cyclone 34

Figure 14: A successful aquaculture strategy 35

Figure 15: Freshening and salinising in the Tam Giang lagoon 36

Figure 16: How are climate hazards degrading the resource base? 37

Figure 17: Cross-fluctuating climatic hazards 38

Figure 18: Tam Giang Lagoon, showing 2007 flood inundation area 41

Figure 19: Tam Giang Lagoon, SLR2100 (IMHEN 2009) 41

Figure 20: Tam Giang – Cau Hai Lagoon 42

Figure 21: Inundation area of SLR200 (IMHEN NCAP scenario) 42

Figure 22: Quang An Commune land use map 2007 (left) and inundation area of under SLR2100 (right) 44

Figure 23: Elevation map of Hong Loc showing SLR2100 (left) and MONRE 2005 land use map showing inundation area (right) 45

Figure 24: Vinh Hien Commune land use before sea level rise 46

Figure 25: Vinh Hien Commune land use after rise of 1 metre (MONRE 2005) 46

Figure 26: Land use 2007 map with inundation area SLR2100 46

Figure 27: Vinh Hien Commune inundation area 2007 land use map 47

Figure 28: Ky Ninh land use (MONRE 2005) showing area inundated under SLR2100 47

Figure 29: Ky Ninh 2007 land use map showing area inundated under SLR2100 48

Figure 30: Additional water surface area created by 1 metre sea-level rise 49

Figure 31: Percentage of paddy lost 4 Communes (out of total paddy allocation MONRE 2005) 49

Figure 32: House on stilts, Hien Hoa II Village 51

Figure 33: Concrete house, roof lost due to typhoon, Hien Hoa II Village 51

Figure 34: Vulnerability of aquaculture to hazards 52

Figure 35: Poverty trap and recent hazard experiences of a young farming family 55

Table 1: Changes in annual mean temperature (0C) relative to period from 1980-1999) North Central Region .8

Table 2: Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to the period of 1980 – 1999, North Central Region 9

Table 3: Sea level rise (cm) relative to period of 1980 - 1999 9

Table 4: Poor, medium and well-off households, and movement between groups, as classified by villagers 18

Table 5: Water resources used for consumption and production in study areas 20

Table 6: Principal hazards and associated impacts on livelihoods, as identified by villagers 33

Table 7: Potential impact of climate change on water resources, ecosystem and coastal communities’ livelihoods 39

Table 8: Coping and rehabilitation measures in response to extreme hazards, My Xa Village, Quang An Commune, Thua Hien Hue Province 53

Table 9: Specifications for satellite data 95

Table 10: List of maps and other spatial data 95

Table 11: Lands cover classification legend 96

Table 12: Background to study locations in Ha Tinh Province, including key livelihood activities 107

Table 13: Background to study villages in Thua Thien Hue Province, including key livelihood activities .108

Table 14: Seasonal climatic conditions, hazard impacts and calendar of livelihood activities: Ha Tinh Province 109

Table 15: Seasonal climatic conditions, hazard impacts and calendar of livelihood activities: Thua Thien Hue Province 110

Table 16: Current livelihood activities and associated problems: study communes in Ha Tinh Province .111

Table 17: Current livelihood activities and associated problem 112

Table 18: Quang An land use and 1 metre sea-level rise 126

Table 19: Quang An percentage land use areas affected by 1 metre sea-level rise 126

Table 20: Vinh Hien land use area inundated by SLR2100 135

Table 21: Ky Ninh land affected by SLR2100 (based on MONRE 2005) 149

Acknowledgements

PEP wishes to acknowledge all those who contributed to this Report They include all who participated in village fieldwork, focus group discussions at Commune, District and Provincial level and in Provincial Workshops in Ha Tinh and Thua Thien Hue

In particular, the PEP wishes to thank Challenge to Change, who graciously donated the services of their staff, including

Ms Nguyen Phuc Hoa, to undertake fieldworker training

PEP wishes to thanks IMHEN for supplying the climate change maps and charts showing baseline data and scenario projections

PEP wishes to thank

• In Ha Tinh: Hoang Trung Lap, Dang Minh Ngoc, Tran Hau Khanh, Than Van Tu, Nguyen Van Kien and Tran Hai Ha

• In Thua Thien Hue: Nguyen Minh Duc, Pham Nguyen Thanh, Lam Thi Thu Suu, Pham Thi Dieu My, Le Thi Ngoc Suong and Bui Vinh Long

The PMU

• Dr Truong Manh Tien

• Dr Nguyen Trung Thang

• Ms Kim Thi Thuy Ngoc

• Ms Nguyen Thi Ngoc Anh

Thanks also go to peer reviewers for their suggestions and to Mr Dao Xuan Lai, Head, UNDP for support to the project

to the degradation of natural capital There is evidence that the scale of aquaculture on the Tam Giang Lagoon far exceeds the lagoon’s ‘carrying capacity’, for example

In terms of livelihood security, there is still a significant risk that further households will be forced to abandon aquaculture, suffering significant financial losses and being burdened with massive debt Effects of climate change will continue to exacerbate and add to existing pressures on coastal livelihood systems, such as increasing population, over-exploitation of land, forests and aquatic products, low education and skill levels, widespread pollution of water sources, market vagaries and underlying poverty

A 2 Addressing issues of scale.

In costing and prioritising climate change adaptation investments, it is imperative that the different levels of Government, and agencies across each of these levels, agree on the most appropriate time scales and focal scales for action National policy settings for climate change have proceeded in advance of the development of locally-developed polices for jointly implementing adaptive strategies within regions, such as coastal livelihood and agro-ecological zones For building climate-resilient resource-dependent coastal livelihoods, a twinned approach involving improved regional environmental governance and livelihood strengthening will need to be adopted

While hierarchical government structures and down planning processes have been developed to ensure

top-A.1 Approaching coastal livelihoods in a

changing climate

This report explores potential paths of resilience in relation

to future climate change for the most at-risk coastal

livelihood systems in the central region of Viet Nam It

identifies measures for formulating adaptive strategies to

• Reduce coastal livelihood vulnerability and build

resilience to climatic shocks and stress

• Build the resilience of social and ecological systems,

on which these livelihoods depend, to the effects

of climate change and strengthen their capacity to

deliver quality services

A participatory study was conducted in Ha Tinh and

Thien Thua Hue Provinces with local households and

community leaders in four coastal communes, provincial,

district and commune authorities, representatives of mass

organisations and technical experts Women and men

in the study locations are chiefly engaged in farming and

fishing/aquaculture livelihoods Climate change poses a

growing threat to these livelihood systems due to effects

on natural resources and other assets upon which they

directly depend Building resilience of coastal livelihoods

most at risk to climate change thus requires measures

to ensure the resilience of linked ecosystem resources

This study has sought to capture this linkage through

adoption of a social ecology approach, involving use of

the Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF), Hazard

Capacity Vulnerability Assessment (HCVA), and

eco-resilience analysis

Using the SLF lens, climate change can be seen as a key

element of the vulnerability context which defines local

livelihoods, through its transformation of familiar seasonal

climatic conditions The study revealed that coastal

communities are already experiencing the effects of climate

change through shocks, such as increasingly unpredictable

flood and storm patterns damaging assets and affecting

many livelihood activities These extreme events dominate

the public perception of emerging climate change, as

evidenced by severe ‘natural disasters’ However effects of

climate change can also be seen in less-newsworthy events

such as prolonged drought Gradual trends in increasing

E X ECU T I V E SU M M A RY

2

consistency in implementation of national objectives in

provinces, there are few governance mechanisms able to

ensure consistency of local planning and local approaches

to implementation across neighbouring provinces

and within eco-regions Along Viet Nam’s coastal belt,

this inadequacy could inhibit effective development

implementation of long-term adaptation strategies to

climate change, such as sea-level rise Adaptive strategies

involving conservation of natural resources utilised by

poor rural livelihoods could be affected

The current national structure and system of local

government has enabled achievement of a high rate of

poverty reduction However, there has been no similar

success in the reduction of environmental degradation and

resource depletion Part of the failure may be attributed to

the lack of environmental governance mechanisms able

to effectively enforce environmental regulations across

provinces and within eco-regions, for example along

areas of coastline or in major watersheds provinces will

be keen to attract new investment to implement adaptive

strategies to minimise negative effects and capture new

opportunities provided by climate change However for

building ecological resilience Provincial Governments will

need to think, and to act, laterally Appropriate focal scales

for action for many of these adaptive strategies will require

Governments at Provincial level to focus more strongly on

cooperation and collaboration rather than competition for

new climate change investment This will require effective

mechanisms for joint implementation

Appropriate time-scales will also need to be assessed for

each adaptation measure and strategy Effects of long-term

climate change trends may require a response that does

not fit entirely within one single Five Year Plan period An

appropriate time-scale of decades for some strategies will

require targets to be set for staged implementation within

each plan period The challenge for local government, and

governance, is to match time scales with focal scales to

ensure longer-term adaptation strategies are successful,

and that financial commitments are benchmarked, and tied

to progressive achievement of milestones

Right sequencing of adaptation measures and strategies also

needs to be considered The effectiveness of some strategies

will be improved or lessened if undertaken before, after, or

in combination with others The planting of mangroves as

support for new dyke construction is an example In Quang

Dien District, it was also recommended that climate change

awareness-raising precede the conducting of training

courses to diversify local livelihoods Right sequencing

requires multi-stakeholder commitment to a critical path

for implementing climate change adaptation investment

This critical path can be constructed at different focal

scales of political and environmental governance, and for different time-frames A critical path analysis of this kind was beyond the scope of this small study However, the issue of focal scales of action is examined, for example, in relation to water management, and suggested time-frames for identified adaptation measures can be found in Annex 11

A 3 Supporting equitable adaptation

Government will need to be a strong player in ensuring equitable outcomes of climate change adaptation strategies Coping strategies focus on what to do when things go bad Adaptation strategies focus on what makes things go well But some people can do well at the expense of others, who become poorer Past resource use has demonstrated that there could be a sharp difference between winners and losers from climate change adaption, independent

of coping strategies Lessons need to be learned, and applied, from the expansion of commercial aquaculture

in Tam Giang lagoon following the 1999 flood This

on the expansion occurred through privatising former commonly-held fishing grounds It made the better-off wealthy, and increased exports, but at the expense of the livelihood of mobile fishers, and those with little capital

to invest An extensive intervention by local authorities, institutions, international agencies and other external actors was required to ensure more equitable access to aquatic livelihood resources External interventions by institutions in facilitating livelihood change is examined in Section C.5

Fieldwork research revealed that with the support

of local institutions, such as rural extension services, and interventions of international agencies, coastal communities are adapting livelihood strategies in response

to climatic trends Certain livelihood activities are now carefully timed in order to minimise overall vulnerability

to climatic hazards However, some of these adaptation strategies are less accessible to poor households, given the higher cost of inputs In the future, Government will have to ensure intra-generational and inter-generational equity in how it strengthens its support processes for successful livelihood adaptation to gradual climate change

At village level, tailored adaptive strategies will be needed for different livelihoods in the one area, and identical livelihoods in different areas Differing vulnerabilities

to hazards according to age, gender, infirmity and other variables will also need to be taken into account Section E.1.2 discusses these issues At higher levels, trade-offs for short-term advantage must not overwhelm long-term livelihood sustainability Government will need to pay heed

to regulating and monitoring of sustainability of livelihood

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

resources bases to ensure necessary delivery of ecosystem

resources and provisioning services are sustained

Most critical, given the projected drier dry season, is

ensuring adequate environmental flows and supply of good

quality water for consumption and production Despite

some recent positive developments, such as enhanced

water source protection and local irrigation systems, a

sound water management policy and strategy is needed

effective water use allocation among all sectors and regions

in the river catchment areas is able to meet growing water

demand, protect against hazards, while also maintaining

ecological requirements Improved water storage will be

critical for agriculture in drought-prone coastal areas,

and may be best achieved through artificial re-charge of

aquifers Section E 2.5 recommends specific measures for

improving water storage and management

Supporting the shift from coping to adaptation will

require a collaborative, participatory effort A prime future

focus for climate change investment (as against disaster

risk management) may be to enhance the resilience of

social and ecological systems to deliver quality services

to support coastal rural livelihoods But this will only be

achieved through the active participation of those engaged

in these livelihoods, to better manage their resources and

to improve the sustainability of their livelihood practices

A top-down/bottom-up collaborative effort is needed to

break the terminal cycle of ever-increasing exploitation of

an ever-diminishing and degrading resource The element

of desperation inherent in the poor’s day-to-day survival

will need to be replaced by a confidence that there is a

tomorrow Individual competition can then give way to

collective collaboration in resource protection and renewal

This acceptance of having a tomorrow for which to plan,

can grow into an achievable vision for the future Rural

extension services can coordinate this effort However to

do so effectively, the mandate of rural extension services

need to be widened to encompass marketing and other

services to meet the challenge posed by climate change to

long-term livelihood sustainability

At a higher level, these local efforts can be further

supported through mainstreaming of climate change into

development planning But this is currently impeded

by a lack of a spatial dimension in planning processes

GPS/GIS hazard mapping down to commune level is

required to better inform future provincial, district and

commune development planning decisions Hotspot

areas of ‘livelihood-ecosystem’ dysfunction can also be

identified and targeted through a participatory approach

to hazard mapping This can then form a core part of

ICZM, and brought into SEA and SEDP formulation The

challenge will be to avoid maladaptation, when faced with

a choice between development in hazard-prone coastal areas offering short-term benefits but at high risk, and development more likely to deliver lower-risk, long-term gains.1

A 4 Migration and relocation as livelihood diversification

Experience in other countries has shown that the ability to cope with increasing climatic hazards is highly dependent

on the ability to diversify income sources In the study sites paid employment options remain limited in coastal areas and migration to cities presents an important opportunity for some households to improve their conditions through remittances Fieldwork undertaken in this study supports the view of migration as a household livelihood diversification strategy, rather than a strategy undertaken

by individuals Younger male household members are often encouraged to seek outside employment Remittances are used mainly to meet daily household expenses In this way, aged and female household members may enjoy reduced financial vulnerability as a result of key male members of the household becoming seasonal or long-term migrants However, they may be left more physically exposed during typhoons and floods, if they are unable to call upon male support while trying to care for young children and elderly household members, as well as safeguard their personal possessions With more extreme events being expected

to result from climate change, support will need to be enhanced for these vulnerable groups

As the rural-urban migration rate increases, competition for better-paying jobs will become more intense Vocational and skills training needs to be provided for migrants to obtain quality employment to increase remittance payment levels In areas where resettlement away from traditional livelihood resource-bases is deemed necessary an integrated relocation package should be offered This package would involve matching existing core competencies with alternative occupations, tailoring current and acquiring new competencies through formal course training and re-skilling; assistance in migration and resettlement; and facilitating acquisition of social capital to help in job-placement and retention

A 5 Hard and soft infrastructure

International experience has shown that considering hazard risks when addressing basic development needs, such as the

which by overlooking climate change impacts, inadvertently increases exposure and/or vulnerability to climate change.” OECD (2008) p.30

E X ECU T I V E SU M M A RY

4

provision of housing, water supplies and the planning of

infrastructure, is essential in order to build resilience This

was found to be the case in the study locations Housing

was found to be poorly adapted to intensifying hazards

The poor were particularly vulnerable, but much of the

more costly, ‘modernised’ housing enjoyed by wealthier

households was also found to be highly vulnerable to

typhoons and floods

Sea level rise is a seen as an emergent climate change threat,

but from the viewpoint of commune and village leaders

observing it first-hand as sea incursion, it is not new While

a threat of a one-metre rise in sea-level by 2100 may be

adequately dealt with in the future, though at some cost, by

dikes, there is a need to act more quickly to halt salinization

of land through hydraulic effects in aquifers, and in rivers

during dry seasons While marine shore communes were

shown as most affected, this study showed unequal impacts

of a projected one metre sea level rise in the various sites

The question of whether or not to build barriers to

counter seawater intrusion, was seen as less relevant than

how and how not build Strategies combining hard with

soft infrastructure will most likely be required to manage

this hazard, though a strategic withdrawal, or ‘managed

retreat’ is another option that could be explored, given

an assessment of a gain in livelihood opportunities A

centralised approach to both dike construction and

management will be required, with a centralised authority

to oversee both construction and maintenance Upgrading

skills may allow local labour and quality local materials to

be utilised in construction contracts

A 6 Sectoral climate-resilient approaches

Adaptive strategies for agriculture will require support

for existing adaptation measures as well as changes in

management and farming techniques to reduce risk of crop

failure This includes a recognition of the ‘feminisation’ of

agriculture, with more women entering farming than men,

in the delivery of extension services and the promotion

of new investment in extensive export-oriented industry For fishing and aquaculture, strict enforcement

agro-of waste treatment regulations is vital As with agriculture, new climate-resilient species may be introduced, but not without being carefully assessed for negative impacts on local biodiversity Research on how to best manage high fluctuations in salinity will be needed

Sectoral support will be needed to be delivered in a variety

of ways Improved access by the most at-risk to information

on climate risks, adaptation measures, and market information can be provided through communication infrastructure Better climate change awareness, including the need to diversify local skill bases, can be a by-product

of participatory hazard mapping, if it involves the most vulnerable Access to more effective credit, insurance and other financial services, particularly for the poor, including non-cash loans will be needed Building financial incentive systems into loans could encourage a reduction

in environmental impacts There is potential for these to be linked to carbon market options, e.g mangrove forestation Large livestock is often the poor’s most valuable income-earning asset Accessible, secure, safe storage and protection from climatic hazards for livestock will need to be provided This will also enable coastal primary producers to avoid selling when prices are least favourable

A mechanism for sharing and exchanging information

on adopted adaptation strategies is required Commune” relationships could be established to enable leaders of communes with shared characteristics to exchange information on what works, what doesn’t and lessons learned This could strengthen local adaptation practices for similar social ecologies, such as those found

‘Sister-in Ky N‘Sister-inh and V‘Sister-inh Hien Communes Government could assist by monitoring livelihood support, to track households assets and climate hazards over time, to provide insights into how successful current risk management options are in improving the resilience of communities

B Introduction

B.1 Objectives and research questions

This report explores potential paths of resilience in

relation to future climate change for livelihood systems in

a number of locations in the central coastal region of Viet

Nam The strategies outlined are based on the findings of

a participatory study conducted with provincial, district

and commune authorities, mass organizations, local

households, communities and technical experts from April

– June 2009 A review of secondary literature, including

documented experiences in other parts of the world was

also undertaken

The overall objectives of the study were to identify policy

measures and support interventions for building short

and long-term resilience of coastal communities most

at-risk to the impacts of climate change, assess the capacity

of local institutions, support networks and ecological

systems to sustain current livelihood activities, given likely

climate change impacts, and propose means of enhancing

livelihood opportunities in the face of increased climatic

stresses and shocks The study was undertaken in a number

of communes in Thua Thien Hue and Ha Tinh provinces,

where weather-related hazards occur on a regular basis and

the impacts of climate change are already being observed

To enable better preparedness for climate variability,

improved information on seasonal forecasts, as well as

longer term, downscaled climate change scenario data are

necessary to ensure that strategies to reduce vulnerability

respond to underlying trends.2 New scenarios and baseline

data for the North-Central region prepared by the Viet Nam

Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment

(IMHEN) were therefore used by researchers to stimulate

discussions at all levels regarding the implications of

likely climate change over the coming decades, and

possible responses Researchers also examined historical

data concerning weather-related and other shocks and

stresses on archetypical rural livelihoods and the current

vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of different social

groups living in coastal communes in the study areas The

current policy context for climate change responses in Viet

Nam was also reviewed

The specific research questions posed by the study were as

follows:

• What are the past and current vulnerabilities of poor, medium and well-off coastal livelihood groups, and women and men, to climatic stresses and shocks?

• What have been the major changes in livelihoods in the study areas over recent years and what were the drivers of these changes? To what extent have these changes built resilience to future climate change impacts?

• How can the most at-risk coastal livelihood groups become more resilient to climate change trends, including slow-onset stresses and sudden shocks, and contribute to building climate-resilient livelihoods for future generations?

institutions, local networks and ecological systems which support local livelihoods, and create new livelihood opportunities, be enhanced?

B.2 Methodology

A detailed description of the methodology is provided

in Annex 1, and a summary is presented here The month study was undertaken in an iterative manner, and included:

three-• Preliminary data collection and literature review:

including specially commissioned maps and charts from IMHEN of down-scaled climate change baseline data and A2 and B2 scenarios up to 2100 These maps and charts formed the basis for discussions at Provincial, District and Commune levels (Annex 2)

• GIS desk-top analysis: using satellite imaging, maps

and charts to show such data as land use, population distribution, infrastructure, and downscaled IMHEN projected inundation impacts of a 1-metre sea-level rise for the four study communes (See Annex 3)

• Site selection:

o Two Provinces were chosen: Ha Tinh, which has

a PEP Provincial Project Unit based in Ha Tinh DONRE, and Thua Thien Hue, selected on the advice of IMHEN, due to the strong availability

of reliable climate change data

I N T RODUCT ION

6

typhoons, floods and droughts; they also have the highest land inundation coverage of a projected 1 metre sea level rise in the region, and outside the Mekong and Red River Delta areas

o Two communes in each Province were selected

as representative of archetypical coastal livelihood zones, following discussions with senior provincial officials All represent coastal rural livelihoods most at risk to climate change hazards as well as opportunities that might be offered by positive impacts of climate change

Moreover, they are in comparable geographic locations, allowing for some comparative analysis

o Three villages in each commune were suggested

by Commune People’s Committees on the basis

of their representativeness of main commune livelihoods

• Training and fieldwork:

o Field researchers attended a two-day workshop

in analytical frameworks and qualitative research methodology They selected the fieldwork methodology to be followed, drawing upon PRA tools and HVCA

o Following the training, meetings were with

provincial, district and commune authorities and mass organizations’ representatives to discuss study objectives, and to share and exchange data

o Fieldwork was then undertaken, and included

separate meetings with women and men

However little sex-disaggregated data was collected.3

• Focus Group Discussions: were held with local

authorities and mass organizations’ representatives;

firstly at the commune, then at the district and then

at the provincial level

• A youth meeting: facilitated by the local DONRE and

Youth Union representatives, held with around three

hundred teenage students from Viet-Duc Vocational

College in Ha Tinh

• A workshop was held in each province and a National

Workshop was held in Hanoi to discuss the draft Final

Report

fieldwork undertaken in Quang Tri using the same IMHEN data as

used in this study, may redress this limitation.

B.3 Conceptual approaches employed

Coastal rural livelihoods most at risk to climate change are those directly dependent upon climate-sensitive resources It follows that building the resilience of these livelihoods will also require building the resilience of the ecosystems maintaining these resources Resilience is thus defined as the capacity of linked socio-ecological systems

to absorb recurrent weather-related disturbances, while retaining essential structures, processes and feedbacks.4Understanding the linkages between ecological systems and human societies (and associated livelihood activities)

is vital in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance the resilience of these linked systems in coastal areas To explore these linkages, the study draws upon the concepts

of eco-system resilience, the sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF) and hazard and vulnerability capacity assessment (A full account of these is given in Annex 4.) The SLF provides a people-centred method of examining the various factors and relationships which result in sustainable livelihood activities and outcomes Sustainable livelihoods are those which can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks, maintain or enhance their capabilities, assets and entitlements, while not undermining the natural resource base.5 The SLF has generally been applied to present-day households and communities, however climate change means that the time horizon of

‘sustainable development’ needs to be extended to include next generations and ensure intergenerational equality.6 A schematic presentation of the SLF is shown in Figure 1

In this framework, five ‘capitals’ or ‘assets’ - natural, physical, human, social and financial – are presented as the core basis for livelihood activities at individual, household

or group level, but these are influenced by a range of linked factors, including the ‘vulnerability context’: issues and trends related to nature and the environment, markets, political stability etc The five capitals are also affected by and can, in turn, influence prevailing policies, institutions and processes In order to maximise livelihood outcomes the poorest and most vulnerable need to not only have access to but rights over various assets Access to and ownership of assets is often highly variable both within and amongst households and communities, hence, depending

inter-on the scale and scope of any analysis, disaggregatiinter-on

by gender, age and other variables is advisable to fully understand livelihood dynamics in any given setting

Adger, N W (2000)

Physical household goods, infrastructure

Human popula

I N T RODUCT ION

8

been estimated that the total damage caused by natural disasters, particularly typhoons, floods and landslides, costs the country in the region of 1% of GDP 10

Climate change effects are already emerging In June 2009 MONRE published updated climate change baseline data and scenario projections.11 It noted that:

• According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in

2007, the global average temperature has risen about 0.740C for the period of 1906 – 2005 and the warming trend over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the previous 50 years

• During the last 50 years (1958 – 2007), the annual average temperature in Viet Nam increased about 0.50

to 0.70C

• Winter temperatures increased faster than those of summer and temperatures in Northern climate zones increased faster than those of Southern climate zones

• The annual average temperature for the last four decades (1961 – 2000) was higher than that of the three previous decades (1931 – 1960)

• In recent years, there were more typhoon with a higher intensity affecting Viet Nam The typhoon track has a tendency of moving southward and the typhoon season tends to end later There were more typhoons with abnormal movement

• Sea level at Hon Dau station rose nearly 20cm over the past 50 years

Future projections of climate change for North-Central Viet Nam, drawn from the June 2009 MONRE data, are presented in Tables 1 to 3

Table 1: Changes in annual mean temperature ( 0 C) relative to the period 1980-1999 North Central Region.

an assessment of impact in 50 provinces and cities, cited in H.M Hien ‘Climate Change and Variability Assessment: Agricultural Implication in Viet Nam’ Paper presented at International Symposium

on Geoinformatics for Spatial Infrastructure Development in Earth and Allied Sciences (2008).

study is set out in Annex 2

The same type of disaggregation is needed to appreciate the

varying vulnerabilities of women and men with varying

degrees of empowerment to different hazards Using

HVCA in combination with the SLF to better elucidate the

differing vulnerabilities of social actors to climate hazards

allows for better capture of this variability HVCA involves

a participatory analysis of past patterns of hazards and

present threats at the community level (hazard assessment),

combined with an understanding of the underlying causes

of why hazards become disasters (vulnerability assessment)

and of the available resources an affected community uses

to cope with the adverse effects (capacity assessment).8

(How HVCA was used in this study can be seen in Section

C 4)

Together, the SLF - HVCA framework and the concept

of socio-ecological resilience allows for the move from

assessing differing vulnerabilities of different groups of

women and men to climatic hazards, to assessing different

vulnerabilities of most at-risk livelihoods to different

long-term climate change trends Underlying this shift is the

increasingly gendered nature of agriculture, and fishing

and aquaculture activities.9 The combined approach is

able to provide a strong foundation for research on current

climate change effects and the identification of appropriate

adaptation options Projections of future climate change

scenarios can also be used to ensure recommended

adaptation measures take into account probable long-term

trends

B.4 Climate change effects

Viet Nam is one of the countries in the world most prone to

extreme weather events The country is regularly subjected

to typhoons, tropical storms and tropical depressions

These give rise to lowland inundation (eg Hanoi, November

2008), river floods (Mekong 2000, 2001) and storm surges

(Central Coast, 1999) In upland areas heavy rains cause

flash flooding, often resulting in landslides that increase

sedimentation loads in rivers, leading to more extensive

lowland flooding As well as these weather-related shocks,

Viet Nam also experiences slow on-set weather hazards

Drought, and seawater intrusion into estuaries affect both

agriculture and aquaculture livelihoods It has recently

http://www.adpc.net/PDR-SEA/cbdo-dr/chapter3-4.html

Nam points to a greater vulnerability of rural women, compared to

men, to climatic hazards and resource degradation Two-thirds of

rural women are primarily engaged in farming, compared to half of

rural men Almost all of the new participants in the agriculture sector

are women ADB, (2006), UNIFEM (2009).

INTRODUCTION

Table 2: Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to the period of

1980 – 1999, North Central Region

Table 3: Sea level rise (cm) relative to the period of 1980 - 1999

They show annual average temperature increasing, total

annual rainfall and rainy season rainfall increasing while

dry season rainfall decreases, and a rise in sea level by

2100 between 65cm to one metre These future changes in

climate may be experienced as both a ‘shock’ and a ‘stress’

to coastal rural livelihood systems, that could include:

• A reduction in land for agriculture and human

settlements

• Seawater intrusion into estuaries, especially in the dry

season, affecting brackish water aquaculture

• Increasing damage from floods, storms, and other

extreme climatic events, and

• A rise in human and animal diseases.12

However, in the longer-term, new opportunities could be

opened up by rising sea levels for expanding aquaculture

Due to cumulative impacts on natural resources, agricultural

production, industrial output and labour productivity and

infrastructure, overall economic development is also likely

to be severely challenged.13 The fact that tourist resorts

and new industrial developments in Viet Nam are mostly

located on the coastal areas and plains that are susceptible to

sea level rise (and associated shoreline erosion), typhoons,

tropical storms and saline intrusion into freshwater sources,

amongst other impacts, has serious implications and poses

particular risks.14 Given its impact on GDP, infrastructure

and general socio-economic development, climate change

will make pro-poor growth difficult.15 Moreover, as climate

impacts on agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture, and WHO Viet

Nam profile on increased health risks.

B.5 Vulnerability to climate change

Climate extremes or unseasonal changes can cause severe shocks that set households and communities back Coping with such events can result in a loss of assets, negative impacts on health and can require high expenditure to recover.17 Non-poor women and men with outstanding loans and high mortgage repayments may be financially vulnerable to the sudden loss of physical and other assets

In contrast, poor women and men with little property and substandard housing may be more physically than financially exposed to weather-related hazards Resulting injuries to adult family members may place more burdens

on poor women who are expected to take on the role

of primary care-giver, and severely curtail their social networks Yet for many poor households which rely on subsistence and income-generation activities susceptible

to natural hazards seasonal climatic events and trends also produce significant stress This is especially true for those who live in drought-prone or flood-prone locations, or face a steady decline in productivity due to increasing or fluctuating salinity Hence climate change adds urgency

to the need to understand and address the vulnerability of the poor women and men to current and future climatic variability and to ensure that policies and programmes work to reduce this vulnerability and enhance adaptation and resilience to changing conditions

Recent experience demonstrates that the lives, health and property of the poor women and men are at the greatest risk of climate-related hazards, while they may also be disproportionately affected by climate change due to a decline in common property resources such as fisheries or forests, upon which they depend for their livelihoods.18 At the same time, those most at risk of climate change, including poor female household heads who must play multiple roles of main income-earner, child-raiser and primary care-giver, often have limited information or financial and technical support to adapt

to their changing world.19 In Viet Nam, climate change has profound implications for poor women and men, particularly as many subsist in marginal environments

have contributed least to climate change are most vulnerable to its impacts.

I N T RODUCT ION

10

and have seen many of the safety nets that existed under

the previous centrally planned economy removed, leaving

them extremely vulnerable to climate-related hazards and

the disasters which regularly ensue.20 The rural poor and

near-poor living in coastal areas are one of the groups most

susceptible to adverse climatic events, as agriculture and

fisheries are sectors which are particularly susceptible to

climate change impacts.21 The already difficult situation in

these communities is likely to be further compounded over

the long term.22

The North-Central coastal region in Viet Nam is one of the

geographical areas most at risk of climate change hazards

and is one of the regions with the highest incidence

and severity of poverty, which may in part be due to the

historical impact of natural disasters.23 The vast majority of

the population in this region is involved in the agricultural

sector or otherwise dependent upon natural resources

(water, forestry, fisheries) for their livelihoods, hence

their wellbeing is profoundly influenced by weather

conditions The observed increase in the frequency of

climate extremes in this region is of particular concern, as it

reduces the time for poor women and men to recover from

one climatic shock to another and to rebuild assets to cope

with the persistent stresses posed by changing conditions;

traditional coping strategies are unlikely to be sufficient in

this context.24

B.6 Policy and institutional context

Since ratifying the United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, and the Kyoto

Protocol in 2002, the Vietnamese government has made

various efforts, through law and policy-making and some

practical mitigation and adaptation initiatives, to respond

to the threats posed by climate change A critical review of

some key current policy settings related to climate change

adaptation is set out in Annex 5: the National Target

Programme to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC);

the Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development in

Viet Nam (Viet Nam Agenda 21)25; the Second National

Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and

Management to 2020; and the Integrated Coastal Zone

Management (ICZM) Strategy – Thua Thien Hue Province

The government’s Initial National Communication (INC)

to the UNFCCC in 2003 provided a vulnerability and

adaptation assessment of climate change impacts based

on models in use at the time, together with options for the mitigation of greenhouse gases The second national communication to the UNFCCC is planned for 2010, and is likely to include the findings of more in-depth vulnerability and adaptation assessments as well as a policy framework for implementing strategic responses

The basis for adaptation measures have already been established in a number of recent laws and strategies The National Strategy for Environmental Protection26, for example, states that one of the objectives to be achieved by 2010 is to improve capacity in preventing and controlling natural disasters, particularly those related to climate change, and includes plans to reduce the impacts

of sea level rise in coastal areas Furthermore, the Law on Environmental Protection (2005) expressly stipulates that the State shall be responsible for building capacity for forecasting and warning of natural disasters in order

to prevent and restrict adverse consequences of natural disasters and environmental incidents While this Law does not specifically detail climate change responses, it

is supported by a range of Decrees and sector specific regulations in areas such as land use planning and coastal protection which provide grounds for undertaking climate change adaptation measures

In 2007 it was noted that there was limited government ownership of an adaptive approach to climate change-related risks, and limited state funding available for climate change adaptation.27 During the same year, and

in recognition of the challenges posed by climate change, the Prime Minister called for the formulation of a National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC) which can be considered the most strategic response

• Increasing population placing pressures on limited natural resources

• Over-exploitation of natural resources, leading to a decrease in the availability of aquatic resources, land and forest areas

Vision towards 2020, approved December 2003.

INTRODUCTION

• Overall low education and skill levels

• Pollution of water sources from human and animal

waste and uncontrolled and unregulated release of

untreated pollutants from agriculture, aquaculture,

food processing and other activities

• Poverty – due to lack of land, credit, and labour, or

the injury or chronic illness of the main household

income-earner

• Market dynamics (not explored in our study but

inevitably affect income for agricultural and fishing

activities)28

Future climate change effects will generally add to and

exacerbate present shocks and stress While risks of losses

of livestock and produce from cold temperatures will

decrease, and salinity and coastal erosion rates could be

reduced by sea-walls, increased temperature and rainfall

coupled with more extreme weather events will add extra

layers of shock and stress on livelihoods, and place increased

pressure on the livelihood resource-base The mix of

adaptation and mitigation strategies will need to be further

refined and developed to meet this threat Such a mix can

be expected to combine both reactive and anticipatory

adaptation strategies, and feature autonomous responses

and planned interventions that will need to be harmonised

to be successful From the point of this study, ‘success’ will

be measured by increased climate-resilience of most at-risk

coastal rural livelihoods and natural resources While it is

acknowledged that for Government, ‘success’ will be seen

in broader terms, nevertheless, Government intervention,

supportive of building local livelihood resilience will

remain critical

The complex range of problems outlined above do not

only affect communities, but are already significant

issues facing government, in terms of policy-making and

implementation and the work of local support systems,

such as extension services This is one of the reasons

why climate change should be considered in the context

of other changing conditions and immediate needs, and

climate change adaptation should be viewed as something

to be examined and integrated within existing policies,

management regimes and interventions Importantly,

capacity is already over-stretched in the face of existing

problems All of this is to make the point that there will be

no easy solution to fix what is happening now and what is

going to occur An enormous challenge is emerging on top

of other, costly challenges facing the Government in Viet

Nam

provincial-level workshops where preliminary study findings were

Figures released from the latest census show that in

2009, around 70% of Vietnam’s population live in rural areas, and 30% live in urban areas If the current rate of urban population was maintained, by 2047 this situation would be reversed Around 70% of Viet Nam’s population would live in urban areas, and 30% live in rural areas By

2050, 75% of the population would be living in cities On these projections, the answer to the question what is the future of rural livelihoods in Central Viet Nam is – urban livelihoods.30

In some ways this future has already arrived Ha Noi and

Ho Chi Minh city are expanding into rural areas, and in the future, regional cities could follow suit Rural-urban household livelihood strategies strengthen the linkages Remittances from urban and overseas family members are subsidising livelihoods of many households in our study sites In some cases their earnings and social networks enable other family members to be launched into urban and overseas labour markets

Continued coastal resort tourism strip development may add to the urbanisation of the countryside However, higher temperatures and more frequent, longer lasting, erratic extreme weather events may ensure shortened seasons for coastal tourism as well as agriculture and aquaculture This will impact on opportunities for local employment In the longer-term, coastal tourism will have

to meet the challenge posed by storms and sea-level rise on beach erosion and fragile corals, the latter also threatened

by the possibility of coral bleaching due to ocean warming However, opportunities provided by sea-level rise could be seized to expand aquatic recreational tourism in areas like Tam Giang lagoon, sheltered from the coast and closer to urban areas Ironically, if all the detailed environmental and resource protection measures in current local tourism plans are implemented, the resource-base for agriculture and fishing will be greatly enhanced.31 Increased environmental investment driven by coastal ‘ecotourism’ plans could prove extremely beneficial for coastal resource-based livelihoods

rural-urban migration is provided in Annex 10.

Development Program by 2012.

C.1 Introduction to study sites

As detailed in the Methodology, baseline data were

collected for six villages across two communes in two

provinces: Hong Loc and Ky Ninh in the Districts of Loc

Ha and Ky Anh respectively, Ha Tinh Province, and Quang

An and Vinh Hien in the Districts of Quang Dien and Phu

Loc respectively, Thua Thien Hue Province (Figure 2)

C Rural Livelihood Trends

Loc Ha

Ky Anh

Quang Dien Vinh Hien

Ha Tinh is one of the poorest Provinces in Vietnam Around 30% of the people in the Province are classified as poor33 and as of 2006, per capita GDP in Ha Tinh stood

at around USD $250 per year, compared with the national average of USD $70034 The Province experiences harsh climatic conditions High and medium mountainous areas

(HEPR) report , 4 July 2001.

earlier of VND1.8M, compared with the national average of VND2.7M Statistical Yearbook, 1997, Vietnam General Statistics Office, Statistical Publishing House: Hanoi, (1998).

Figure 2: Four study sites - Hong Loc Commune in Loc Ha District and Ky Ninh commune in Ky Anh District (Ha Tinh Province); Quang An Commune in Quang Dien District, and Vinh Hien Commune in Phu Loc District (Thua Thien Hue Province) 32

Statistical Yearbook, 1997, Vietnam General Statistics Office, Statistical Publishing House: Ha Noi, (1998).

RU R A L LI V ELI HOOD T R EN DS

14

make up 45% of the land mass in the province, while the

lowland and coastal areas account for 17.3% and 12.7%

of the natural land respectively.35 Dry and hot weather

prevails from March to August, when temperatures can

reach up to 410C, regularly bringing drought During the

peak of the drought season (May, June and July) sea water

intrusion into water sources can occur The wet season –

from around September to February, brings much lower

temperatures and is punctuated by flooding Indeed, Ha

Tinh is one of the provinces with the highest rainfall in the

central regions, averaging 2,000 mm per year.36 Typhoons

also regularly strike the Province, sometimes causing

extreme damage Typical climatic phenomena in Ha Tinh

include storms, severe and damaging cold, flash floods, dry

and hot westerly winds and whirlwinds

The Province of Thua Thien Hue has a complex topography

and is made up of a mountainous area, hills, plains and

lagoons separated from the sea by sandbanks It has 126km

of coastline The Tam Giang – Cau Hai Lagoon37, which

extends over an area of almost 22,000 hectares, and is

the biggest coastal lagoon in Southeast Asia, is situated in

the Province This lagoon is home to 350,000 people (a

third of the entire provincial population) Geographically,

Tam Giang Lagoon is a partly closed lagoon system and

communicates with the sea through two estuaries38:

Thuan An and Tu Hien The lagoon receives a mixture of

fresh and salt water resulting in regular changes in salinity,

both seasonally and spatially The lagoon’s unique form

and physical characteristics have created a brackish water

ecosystem, providing a habitat for many species of fish,

shellfish, birds and marine mammals At the same time,

the lagoon is vulnerable to pollution due to chemical

run-off from agricultural activities in the neighbouring rural

areas,39 and other sources Communities living close to the

estuaries of the Tam Giang Lagoon depend upon them for

their livelihoods At present, most of the shallow areas close

to the lagoon edge have been converted to aquaculture;

between 2000 and 2005, wetland conversion resulted in

the aquaculture area doubling to 4,000 hectares.40

Heavy rains in the watersheds of the Huong and Bo rivers

often cause flooding in the lowlands to the east of Thua

Thien Hue Province The reduction of natural forest in

facilitate reading this will henceforth be referred to as Tam Giang

Lagoon.

38 Estuaries are semi-enclosed coastal bodies of water, which have

a free connection with the open sea and within which sea water is

measurably diluted with freshwater from land drainage.

force in Thua Thien Hue Province Mai Van Xuan (2008)

the upland areas in the twenty years between 1980 and

2000 can be considered a major contributing factor to the increase in serious floods over the past decades.41 The main flood season is from October to December, coinciding with the rainy season, which runs from August to December, but the ‘small’ floods occur between May and June Late, short-term floods also occur from late December to early January of the next year Coastal areas can therefore experience floods a number of times every year Rain and storms coming from the sea are regular occurrences, often resulting in higher tidal flow The dry season in the Province runs from January to August

C 2 Overview of livelihood activities in study areas

C 2.1 Location and livelihoods

Four maps (Figures 3 to 6) present overall land use patterns

in the Communes, providing an overall indication of local livelihood zones, and show the location of the villages selected for this study Hong Loc Commune in Ha Tinh and Quang An Commune in Thua Thien Hue both lie North and not far from the main Provincial towns Agriculture is the main livelihood Ky Ninh and Vinh Hien Commune both lie in the far southern end of the provinces of Ha Tinh and Thua Thien Hue respectively, wedged between the north side of an estuary outlet and an exposed marine coastline Fishing and aquaculture are the main livelihoods Hong Loc Commune (Figure 3) is one of the poorest communes in Loc Ha District A large area of flat land is used for the cultivation of rice, maize, peanut, sweet potato, cassava, and other crops, fed by a canal system linked to

a northern reservoir and the river in the south Fishing and freshwater aquaculture are conducted by villages close to the river banks Hong Loc is, in fact, classed as a mountainous commune; it has large areas of uninhabited forested elevated land, mainly to then north, but also to the west; villagers living close to these areas incorporate the cultivation and harvesting of forest products into their livelihood strategies

Ky Ninh (Figure 4) is a coastal commune with two main fishing livelihood zones along the northern inlets and banks of the Vinh River estuary, and inland paddy areas Local livelihoods include near-shore fishing by men, river fishing by women, agriculture and brackish aquaculture The commune has seen a substantial out-migration of individuals in search of employment; many households are supported by remittances from members who have migrated

RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

Figure 3: Land use map of Hong Loc Commune, Ha Tinh Province (classified from SPOT, 2007) showing location of villages included in the study 42

bareland and resident

10, grass and bush

11, grass and bush

12, bush and tree

RU R A L LI V ELI HOOD T R EN DS

16

Figure 4: Spot 2007 land use map for Ky Ninh Commune, Ha Tinh Province showing location of villages included in the study

Dong Tam

Thang Loi

Tam Hai 2

Ky Ninh boder

Legend Landuse 2007

water Unclassified forest Bareland grass and bush

Aquaculture

Figure 5: Land use map of Quang An Commune, Thua Thien Hue Province

Phu Luong Village

An Xuan Village

My Xa Village

Road network

Legend

Independent house Ranh gioi hanh chinh

<all other values>

Unclassified water surface aquaculture Bareland and resident area Bush and grass crop land

Landuse types

RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

The Commune of Quang An (Figure 5) has two main

livelihood zones: one focused on agriculture on land in the

south, and lagoon and river fishing and aquaculture on the

Tam Giang Lagoon in the north and northeast

Much of the population of Vinh Hien Commune (Figure

6) reside on the eastern boundary of the Tam Giang

Lagoon, and many households are engaged in near-shore

sea and river fishing, brackish aquaculture and the trading

of aquaculture products

Background information on the six villages and key

livelihood strategies found to be undertaken by local

households can be found in Annex 6 (Tables 12 and 13)

In every study village, a range of livelihood strategies was

observed The diversity of livelihood activities in which

individual households engaged depended on the natural

resources available, and the human and financial capital

assets on which they could draw (A seasonal calendar of

the various activities, and the seasonal timing of climatic

hazards can be found in Annex 6, Tables 12 and 13.)

C 2.2 People’s perception of poverty

The research engaged with comparatively poor, medium

and well-off households and gained a clear understanding

of livelihood activities and local perceptions of the causes

for moving in and out of poverty Although local authorities

have their own definition of poverty, during the fieldwork

community representatives were asked to identify the main

characteristics of poor, medium, or well-off groups A range

of categories were established across the twelve villages, based on the local contextual situation and villagers’ own experiences and observations (see Table 4 for some examples) This exercise was important as it revealed both what poorer households aspire to as they endeavour to enhance their income and improve their status, what the possibilities and limits of local wealth acquisition may,

in fact, be, and what dynamics had prompted various households to move in or out of poverty over recent years

In most cases, women and men interviewed did not associate different wealth groups with particular livelihood

‘groups’ The poor were generally characterized by the quality of their housing, access to land, and their store of material assets (reflecting relatively poor income) and levels

of debt, for example This suggests that many households across all groups may engage in the same livelihood activities, albeit on a different scale and according to different access to resources and input investment, with varying outcomes But while this is probably true for some activities, at least in the case of near-shore fishing and aquaculture, only those who have sufficient capital for the investment required for such activities can afford

to engage in them As revealed in Table 4, migration can also be considered an activity from which medium and well-off groups are more likely to benefit; although some community representatives reported that poor households take a loan in order to migrate and work in other provinces, this is a very risky livelihood strategy

Figure 6: Land use map for Vinh Hien Commune, Thua Thien Hue Province (derived from SPOT image, 2007), showing location of villages included in the study.

Hien Hoa 2 Village

Hien Van 2 Village

Hien An 2 Village

population location

Legend

Landuse 2007

1,Unclassified Boundary of Vinh Hien

2, Aquaculture

3, water

4, Bareland and resident

5, grass and bush

6, Forest

RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

A few examples were provided of the specific livelihood

activities of the poor, however, with some communities

reporting that poor households are more likely to work

as labourers, for example Community representatives in

Hien Van 2 Village in Vinh Hien Commune described how

rich and medium households which engage in aquaculture

employ members of poor households, especially women,

as low-level labourers who are employed to carry out

physically gruelling tasks such as mending nò sáo nets

(which involves staying under the water for prolonged

periods which means one’s hands and feet are easily cut by

shipworms43), washing nets, and guarding shrimp lakes at

night

The improved quality of housing stock was an important

indicator of whether a household was considered medium

or well-off Hence upgrading the quality of the home

appears to be a priority activity undertaken by households

as they earn more money A key aspect of house quality

identified by some villagers, is its robustness to typhoons

Clearly, therefore, the poor are understood to be more

vulnerable to such natural hazards due to the relatively

flimsy nature of their housing

The importance of livelihood diversification to accumulate

wealth was observed In a number of cases, well-off

households were defined as those who, in addition to

traditional activities such as animal-raising, had enough

assets to diversify into small businesses The concomitant

risk and benefits of embarking on new enterprises were

also noted, however Representative of communities in

both Ha Tinh and Thua Thien Hue observed how, when

businesses fail, households can rapidly move from medium

to poor or near-poor status The failure of aquaculture

enterprises was the common example cited, reflecting local

experiences (see below) Hence it is clear that movement

both in and out of poverty has been experienced.44

‘Downward’ movement was often related to the number

and associated cost of household dependents This can

change over time, depending on the stage of children’s

education, the point at which children become of working

age and generate income, and the shock of a key household

member becoming sick The negative impact which

supporting a seriously sick person can have on human

capital at household level, due to medical expenses and

the opportunity costs of family members accompanying

clams, notorious for destroying underwater wooden structures.

Adaptation and the Poor: a Study of Four Coastal Communes in Ha Tinh

and Ninh Thuan Provinces Vietnam July 2008, which also included Ky

Ninh Commune; of villagers consulted in this Commune 30% had

moved out of poverty over the previous 10 year period, while over

35% had moved into poverty.

patients to clinics or hospitals outside the village, was highlighted by many village-level respondents In some cases such incidents can led to households moving from being well-off to medium income, or medium income to poor All households are vulnerable to such events, which are likely to increase in frequency as result of climate change effects

Chronic illness and serious injury, a major contributor

to falling back into and remaining in poverty, is likely to

be exacerbated by effects of climate change, as a result

of less predictable, more extreme events Poor coastal rural women, working in agriculture or as hired labour in aquaculture and unable to easily access safe shelter during emergencies would be most affected As outlined in the final section, adaptation strategies to deal with this trend need to prioritise reducing vulnerability of those most at-risk to physical injury and loss of life in emergencies, through adequate provision of access to early warning, transportation for the less mobile, and safe shelter Similar actions need to be taken to reduce the vulnerability of most at-risk groups to climate change stress These include the elderly, young children, those with inadequate nutrition, and the chronically ill These groups may be most vulnerable

to the risk of a wider spread and higher incidence of disease expected with a warmer, wetter climate Holistic health strategies minimising the risk of spread of vectors, through reduction of breeding grounds for example, and public awareness campaigns aimed at reduction in risk behaviours need to be implemented, as suggested in the final section

C.3 Water and livelihoods

Fishing, aquaculture and agriculture are the cornerstones of community subsistence and income in the study areas, all

of which are dependent on access to local water resources.45

In addition, groundwater and rivers are essential for household water supply and sanitation Local access to and sustainable management of water resources are therefore critical to livelihoods and socio-ecological resilience The water sources used for consumption and production in the areas studied are detailed below, in Table 5

Access to water for household consumption was found

to be variable across the four communes included in the study Only one commune (Quang An in Thua Thien Hue Province) enjoys a piped water supply system In Vinh Hien Commune, both groundwater and river water are saline due to sea water intrusion Drinking water is therefore provided through the operation of tanker-based water markets and local supply points The water source is

a mountainous spring located 3-4 km from the Commune

RU R A L LI V ELI HOOD T R EN DS

20

and households pay about 0.3US$ for a volume of 20 litres

of water The construction of a piped water system using

river water (upstream) has been approved by the district

authority, but has not yet been constructed Rainwater is

an additional, free source of water for home consumption,

but storage capacity at household level is currently only

sufficient for several months after the rainy season

In the communes in Ha Tinh Province included in the study,

groundwater is still protected from sea water intrusion and

is a major source of household water consumption since it

is free and of good quality Almost all households in Hong

Loc Commune and about 80% of those in Ky Ninh have

wells that comply with Government hygiene standards

In terms of water for production purposes, the four

communes studied largely rely on canal systems that

transport water from rivers upstream (the Khe Cay

reservoir in Hong Loc, and Rac River Irrigation Scheme

in Ky Ninh) or nearby rivers (Bo River, Quang An) In Ha

Tinh Province, these irrigation systems meet only half of

local production demand, so water shortage is a prevailing

problem, especially in the drought season In villages

located far from irrigation canals (such as Village 11 and

Village 4 in Hong Loc Commune, and Tam Hai 2 Village in

Ky Ninh), farmers had resorted to exploiting groundwater

for irrigation through tube-wells that penetrate the deep

aquifer As coastal communes are normally located at the

end of any canal system, water shortage problems become

even more severe at such locations Agricultural activities

were found to be limited at certain villages situated along the

coastal line in communes such as Ky Ninh and Vinh Hien,

not only due to a lack of irrigation water but also as a result

of the increasing salinisation of land, hence agricultural

production has become a less feasible livelihood option at

such locations

Table 5: Water resources used for consumption and production in study areas

Vinh Hien, Thua

Thien Hue Province Sea, Cau Hai Lagoon, Tu Hien estuary, and

river

Upper aquifer is slightly salty

Aquaculture in river and lagoon.

Quang An, Hue

Province Bo River, Tam Giang Lagoon Groundwater: good quality and quantity. Filtered river water, piped water supply system Irrigation canals (river water).Aquaculture in river and lagoon.

Hong Loc, Ha Tinh

Province En River (Nghen River basin) Groundwater table decline in drought season. Government-standard wells, rainwater harvesting. River water pumped for irrigation.

Ky Ninh, Ha Tinh

Province Sea, Vinh River (Rac River basin)

Both upper aquifer and deep aquifer are of good quality.

Government-standard wells, tube-well, rainwater harvesting.

Rac River Irrigation Scheme.

Groundwater exploited for irrigation (Tam Hai 2 village).

Vinh River water is saline, used for aquaculture only.

C.4 Analysis of dominant livelihoods and livelihood changes

C 4.1 Dominant livelihoods

Dominant livelihood activities were identified at every study village (Annex 6, Tables 16 and 17) During fieldwork, villagers worked with the researchers to prepare village maps outlining key resources and land use patterns, and transect maps to aid understanding of natural capital and vulnerability to natural hazards See Annex 7 for examples of the maps produced through this participatory process Following the sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF), dominant livelihood strategies were examined at village level in relation to access to and rights over the five capital assets, policy and institutional influences and other factors, including the overall ‘vulnerability context’, to establish key drivers of livelihood strategies and outcomes This in-depth data collection with local communities included a participatory analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the core capital ‘assets’ at village level Figure 7 presents a summary of the capital assets available

to Hien Hoa II Village in Thua Thien Hue Province, which borders the Tam Giang – Cau Hai Lagoon, for example.This summary analysis reveals the particular challenges facing households at this location, where only 40% of the population are of working age and a decline in aquatic resources in the lagoon is limiting income from this ‘natural capital’; an issue affecting a number of villages in the study, which will be explored in more detail below There is no cultivable land available in the Village, so agriculture and animal-raising are not an option The general low education level of the community (human capital) also limits the livelihood options available to many households, despite the fact that the Village is based at the Commune

RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

Strengths

- Lagoon border area: 1.400m Lagoon provides many valuable aqua products:

mullet, goby, cardinal fish, amberjack, red snapper, crabs, rock crabs, oyster, common tiger prawn, sea weed, green manure etc.

Weaknesses

- Small land area, no cultivable land => impossible

to develop secondary livelihood activities

- Aquatic resources from the lagoon are in danger

- Few job opportunities + initiative to seek

out new work

Strengths

- Many families receive remittances from

abroad

- Bank for Social Policies, Bank for Agriculture

and Rural Development provides loans via

social organizations for businesses, house

- Many households are in debt

Hien Hoa II village, Vinh Hien commune, Phu Loc district

Strengths

- 800m of National Highway No 49B passes by the village

- Intra-village roads total 1160m

- All households connected to electricity grid

Weaknesses

- Intra-village roads are of low quality

- No clean household water supply

- No kindergartens or primary schools

- Electricity grid is unavailable in resettlement areas.

Physical Capital

Strengths

- Functioning Village Administration Board

- Mass organizations include:

+ Women’s Union: 90 members + Association of Fishing in River and Lagoon:

100 members + Aquaculture Association: 27 members + Fishing Association: 11 members Youth Union: 42 members

Social Capital

Weaknesses

- Youth Union not functioning well; few activities to attract young people (Some young people returning from working in another province introduce gambling – negative activity for youth)

Figure 7: Analysis of capital assets at village level in study village, Thua Thien Hue

Centre and has some good physical capital (infrastructure

such as roads and electricity supply) Households situated

in villages in Commune centres can often benefit from a

wider range of secondary occupations related to services,

trade etc (which was observed at other village locations

in the study, such as Hien Van 2 which is situated in the

same Commune), but this does not appear to be the case

at Hien Hoa II, due to insufficient human and financial

capital Resettled households are at a disadvantage in terms

of their access to some physical capital.46 The social capital

failed at such locations due to lack of planning and support, resulting

in resettled households still basing themselves at their original

locations for daily livelihood activities Personal communication by

local official, Focus Group Discussion in Thua Thien Hue Province,

15/06/09.

provided by membership of local mass organizations is strong, and financial capital is provided through bank loans and other sources - a pattern which was found across all village study locations However, many households have insufficient income to pay back loans on time

A summary of the main activities across all four communes included in the study, and the main problems faced by those involved in these activities is set out in Annex 6, Tables 16 and 17 Observations concerning principal livelihood activities, and factors contributing to a decline

in asset quality, which has beset livelihoods over the past 10-15 years, are outlined below

RU R A L LI V ELI HOOD T R EN DS

22

C 4.2 Declining asset quality: agriculture

Despite the relatively poor natural conditions and the

vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas to flooding, many

villagers in such locations are dependent on agriculture

for both food and income Increasing population

densities mean that the area available for agriculture is

under growing pressure Combined with the problems

of water supply for production detailed earlier, it limits

the potential for increased agricultural productivity (See

Figure 8 for a case study of a household which has access

to very little land due to the distribution of agricultural

land to the next generation) Rice production is a key

activity and provides the main food crop In Ha Tinh

Province some farmers have shifted to two seasons of rice

(‘Winter-Spring’ rice and ‘Summer-Autumn’ rice) This

shift has provided some protection from extreme flooding

Women and men traditionally play complementary roles in

agricultural production, with men largely responsible for

land preparation, transportation and pesticide application

and women carrying out weeding, transplanting and

fertilizing, for example, while tasks such as harvesting and

storing produce are shared Yet the growing trend in certain

study locations in Ha Tinh Province, whereby many male

household members migrate to seek out lucrative alternative

incomes, suggests that women (and the older people) left

behind may be bearing increasing responsibility for both

agricultural production and management, and hence a

‘feminization’ of agriculture may be occurring.47 Similarly,

men’s involvement in and responsibility for fishing and

relatively recent diversification into aquaculture activities

in the Communes of Quang An and Vinh Hien in Thua

Thien Hue Province mean that amongst households which

still farm, women may be taking increasing responsibility

for agricultural work and management Earlier research in

Ky Ninh Commune found that female-headed households

were more likely to be involved in agriculture than fishing

activities, when compared with male-headed households,48

which reveals the central importance of agriculture to many

women’s livelihoods, and may also reflect the more limited

options available to such households in coastal areas

to 1998, the percentage of men working in agriculture reduced by

0.9% annually In that period, 92% of working people newly entering

the agricultural sector were women because men moved to do

non-agricultural business At present, this change has led to the trend

of more women taking part in agricultural activities - 80% women

against 60% men” p4.

be representative Interestingly, not all of these female-headed

households were defined as poor.

Poor and virtually landless – the situation of the elderly

Mr N is 76 years old and his wife is 72 years old They live in Thang Loi Village, Ky Ninh Commune, Ky Anh District, Ha Tinh Province The couple has three children who are grown up and set up their own homes more than ten years ago As he and his wife distributed family land to their married children they have no rice field or upland

year, which yields about 50 kg (with a value of 300,000 VND) Because he is old and poor Mr N receives a subsidy of 120,000 VND per month from the local authority The elderly couple lives carefully on the subsidy and the small amount raised from peanut production They are very frightened of typhoons, which often affect their village The typhoon in 2007 broke the roof of their house and their entire peanut crop was lost His house was repaired soon afterwards with help from neighbours and the local authority.

Figure 8: Poor and virtually landless – the situation of the elderly

Upland areas are particularly suitable for cultivating short duration cash crops such as peanut (groundnut), which are cultivated in the spring season and require no irrigation The short crop cycle of peanut also means that it is less vulnerable to damage from climatic hazards A new variety

of peanut has been adopted by some farmers, which can increase yields significantly compared with the traditional variety But the new variety is costly, as seeds have to be purchased regularly and it requires learning new cultivation practices

Agricultural activities are sometimes combined with animal-raising which can provide significant subsidiary income While raising cattle, an activity managed by men, can secure a good income, initial investment costs mean that this activity is only open to some Limited land for forage also poses a constraint More commonly, women take responsibility for pig-raising, but this activity causes problems with safe waste disposal, and the animals themselves are prone to disease Duck and poultry-raising, also the domain of women, occurs, although such activities are not possible in villages with limited land areas

C 4.3 Declining asset quality: fishing and aquaculture

Despite the high cost of inputs such as boats, nets and petrol, fishing remains an important livelihood activity for many of the households living in coastal areas in the study locations who can afford the necessary investment Men were responsible for near-shore fishing (and local off-shore fishing in the rare instances where this occurred), while women were more likely to be involved in river fishing and the processing and trading aquatic products.49 Some

of the household respondents who are involved in fishing activities reported declining yields Destructive practices, such as the use of explosives to kill fish, have contributed to this trend (see Annex 6, Tables 16 and 17)

RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

An important shift in livelihood activities which occurred

around ten years ago amongst communities with access

to appropriate water sources, was the adoption of

aquaculture as commercial enterprises, promoted as part

of government policy This took place in the Communes of

Ky Ninh, Quang An and Vinh Hien Only ‘medium’ wealth

or well-off, households could afford to diversify into this

activity Poor households face obstacles in participating in

aquaculture due to their limited ability to invest (financial

capital) and to acquire and apply technical knowledge

(human capital) Indeed, it has been argued that a general

move into aquaculture in coastal communities has

disadvantaged poor households who are not able to invest

in such modern fishing methods, and at the same time

lose access to common property resources.50 As a result,

aquaculture development has been observed to increase

the gap between the rich and the poor.51

Moreover, aquaculture is characterized by very segregated

gender roles.52 One study of two villages situated close to

Tam Giang Lagoon found that the development of the

aquaculture sector marginalizes traditional, small-scale

mobile fishing households and that women are particularly

disadvantaged in terms of access to this sector as they rarely

own rights over water (rearing areas) and lack capital and

education Some members of poor households, particularly

women, find employment as labourers for aquaculture, but,

as already described, this is poorly paid, intense physical

work, which can be detrimental to their health.53

While the outcomes following initial investment in

aquaculture were positive, with high profits for

fixed-gear fishers, later over-exploitation saw more negative

outcomes, with increased pollution, resource depletion and

stakeholder conflict As one analyst observed, the ‘winners’

in aquaculture development were the initial adopters of

intensive aquaculture practices, including farmers who

turned their paddy fields into shrimp farms, but also many

fisherfolk who enclosed their fish corrals with nets and

started aquaculture activities within their enclosures The

‘losers’ were those who were not able to enclose their fish

corrals or who continued to rely on capturing fish using

mobile gear.54 The bias against mobile-gear fishing of

open access resources was exacerbated by commune-level

administrations which benefited from taxes on fixed-gear

fishers.55

Chaudhry and Ruysschart, (2007).

as an increase in average temperatures at particular times

of the year, and storm damage In the Communes of Vinh Hien and Quang An, aquaculture is severely affected by freshening as a result of floods In Vinh Hien, groundwater with high levels of salinity is pumped into the aquaculture ponds to make the water suitable for shrimp-raising This

is only a partial solution, however, as groundwater is not appropriate for breeding shrimp so the crustaceans grow slowly under these conditions Some households reported moving fish cages to areas where less freshening has occurred, but this is problematic and not always a feasible solution In Ky Ninh Commune the converse problem

is being experienced:, namely water sources used for aquaculture become saline due to sea water intrusion and falling river levels due to drought In such cases households working in aquaculture mix water from the local irrigation system (when available) to lower salinity levels Again, this

is not a long-term solution

A particular problem caused by current aquaculture practices in the study areas, which dramatically enlarges the category of ‘losers’ from this livelihood activity, is the pollution that ensues when untreated water is released into the wider water system, affecting the natural capital

on which all households depend In Tam Giang lagoon, early entrants enjoyed the benefits of non-degraded natural capital – an unpolluted, uncrowded waterway As more entered the sector, these benefits rapidly diminished The impact of aquaculture on natural resources will be discussed further in a subsequent section

Possible adaptation measures addressing these issues are detailed in the final section They include effective enforcement of waste treatment regulations for aquaculture ponds; promotion of CBNRM; and adoption

of Commune-level Environmental Regulations to resolve issues with solid waste disposal in villages, and in rivers and waterways

development which bring better incomes for producers it should

be understood that this lagoon has natural resources which have created the livelihood of a large community over many generations

If a reasonable balance between aquaculture and fishing cannot

be maintained and encroachment of lagoon water for aquaculture development continues degradation or even destruction of this ecosystem is unavoidable” Ton That Phap (2000).p 205.

RU R A L LI V ELI HOOD T R EN DS

24

C 4.4 Responding to declining livelihood assets:

migration

An increasingly favoured response to the problem of

declining livelihood assets is migration Indeed, migration

has become an essential component of rural livelihoods

in Viet Nam and provides cash injections into local

economies.57 A number of study villages have seen

increasing numbers of adults (particularly young adults)

migrating for employment purposes over recent years.58

Both male and female migrants seek out employment

in nearby provinces or industrial zones, or in some cases

move further afield, depending on their skills base, social

networks and the opportunities which arise A 2007 study

found that internal rural-urban migration (where mainly

young, single and more educated household members

move temporarily or seasonally) is less a result of individual

decision-making than part of a whole household livelihood

strategy,59 and a major objective of migration is to both

respond to and insure against or respond to adversity by

accessing different income streams This was found to be

the case in some of the study locations; a key driver for

the migration of a household member appears to have

been a shock to an existing livelihood activity, specifically

aquaculture, prompting new responses (see the description

of the experiences of An Xuan Village, detailed at the end

of this section) Hence the collapse of a particular sector

can result in members of affected households migrating

to obtain paid employment in order to replace the loss to

household income/provision the household debt

The desire to diversify household livelihoods and

accumulate additional income is clearly another driver of

migration As already detailed, many villagers consulted

during the study expressed the view that families can move

out of poverty and become substantially better off due to

a member of the household obtaining work outside of the

local area An important determinant in migration patterns

is existing networks In this sense Ha Tinh Province, which

has a long tradition of migrant labour, appears to be well

situated Local officials reported that Ha Tinh Province has

the second highest rates of out-migration in the country

and Ky Anh District is the district with second highest level

of out-migrants in the entire Province; they were proud of

the apparent reputation of workers from Ha Tinh as tough

and adaptable Officials also expressed the opinion that

labour migration has been good for the Province Although

and family planning, according to which the North Central region has

the highest rate of net ex-migrants in Viet Nam (accounting for 2.8%)

GSO and National Committee of Population, Family and Children,

2005, quoted in MONRE SOE Report (2006) p.6

the number of workers moving overseas is currently falling

at the moment due to the world economic crisis, migration was still considered a vital long-term option for some of the

Ha Tinh population.60Less out-migration has occurred from the districts and communes of Thua Thien Hue Province which were included in the study, although there also appears to be an increasing migratory trend from these locations Another

2007 study found that more than 800 people had moved from Vinh Hien Commune to find work over recent years, the majority moving to Ho Chi Minh City This means that at least one in three of the 1,898 households

in the commune may have experienced the migration of a household member.61

As has been found by other studies, the opportunities available to male and female migrants differ.62 Women appeared to be more likely to be working in factories in nearby provinces, for example Men appeared to have wider possibilities, with some employed in neighbouring provinces and others moving further afield, including overseas, to earn the greater sums of money available in offshore fishing and other activities The opportunities available also depend on the deposit or ‘bond’ which needs

to be paid to secure certain forms of employment In this sense, male migrants may have an advantage in the kinds

of employment they can secure through their relatively greater access to sources of capital to pay bonds, though this issue was not explored in the current study At any rate, migration overseas by male household members was reported to be the most lucrative means of earning additional income for households The highest remittances reported by villagers were from male migrants from Ha Tinh Province who were working on offshore fishing boats

as employees of foreign companies The bond required for such employment is at least 15 million VND This trend appeared to have begun in 2000 when labourers from Ky Ninh Commune first moved to work on international ships After two or three years they returned with enough capital

to construct new, improved houses for their families, and set up small shops and businesses Some of the earnings from this overseas employment are also usually used towards the bond of another male family member to go and undertake the same work, which highlights the importance

of both social and financial capital in securing lucrative migratory employment Yet the financial returns from this overseas work appear to be at some cost to household and, ultimately, village human capital Households which

authorities in Ha Tinh Province, 19/06/09.

(2007b) p.21.

RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

exported labourers to work in Taiwanese and South Korea

fisheries described how after two or three years’ work their

male relatives returned home in extremely poor health, an

issue which does not appear to have been closely examined

by local authorities

Another key issue relating to the migration is the impact of

high levels of absent males (both seasonally or long-term)

on the women, households and communities left behind It

was observed in Dong Tham Village in Ky Ninh Commune

(Ha Tinh Province), for example, that most of the village

inhabitants were women, children and the elderly; most

young males had migrated to find work Similarly, only

two-thirds of the population of Hien Van 2 Village, in Vinh

Hien Commune (Thua Thien Hue Province) were resident

in the village the time of the research This demographic

impact could mean that those remaining in the village

might be particularly vulnerable at times of extreme

climate hazards Household respondents argued, however,

that families with absent male migrants were better off

financially, were more likely to be able to afford to hire

labour to support village-based livelihood activities, and

were generally enabled to create a better future for their

children, through the funding of education, for example

Moreover, the remittances sent home had enabled them

to strengthen their houses: an enhancement of physical

capital which is particularly critical in geographical

locations vulnerable to natural hazards It is noteworthy

that one of the first investments made by households in

Ha Tinh Province on receiving remittances from migrant

workers is the construction of a ‘sub-floor’: an interior level

inside the house which is used for storing furniture and

other valuables during floods Regardless of these stated

benefits, however, it may be the case that communities

such as Dong Tham, where many women have become de

facto heads of households, may require specific forms of

livelihood and emergency response support

One study on female labour migration from rural areas in

Viet Nam concluded that the livelihood impacts of this

phenomenon are varied: improved skills and knowledge

amongst migrants; the improvement of the migrant’s wider

family’s living standards, including increasing educational

opportunities for children through the provision of

remittances; benefits at village level such as a reduction

in population pressure, and the diversification of the rural

economy as some migrants return home and employ

newly acquired skills, knowledge and savings to establish

new enterprises.63 It may, perhaps, be too soon for some

of the longer term village-level impacts of migration, such

as the diversification of the rural economy, to be observed

in the locations included in the present study Further,

the improved skills and knowledge which ensue from

migration depend on the kinds of employment which migrants can access

Both community and local authority representatives expressed concern regarding the current low skills level

of many migrants, and hence the relatively low income which most of them are able to secure; the need for greater skills training for migrants was one of the issues which local officials emphasized in discussions.64 However, in some areas, this need appeared not to be shared by local women and men In Quang Dien, the District Chairman observed that diversifying skills of local farmers to obtain higher quality alternative employment inside and outside the District was essential to meet future climate change challenges However, he lamented that formal vocational training courses offered to farmers in the District were not well attended Local farmers did not see such courses

as a high priority He considered that climate change awareness-raising needs to be undertaken prior to offering

of such courses to motivate more participants to take up the opportunities on offer

As recommended in the final section, Government must recognise that the effects of climate change will make the key role played by temporary migration in poor coastal rural livelihood diversification strategies even more critical Integrated pre-migration support packages for temporary migrants as part of rural extension services need to be provided They should include loans tied to inventories

of migrant key competencies to match skills to labour demand, skills upgrading and re-skilling and vocational training to improve employment chances This is an areas where specialized NGOs could also play a key role

C.5 The role of institutions in livelihood change

C 5.1 Effects of external interventions

A number of the shifts in livelihood activities undertaken

by women and men in the study locations were clearly prompted by external actors, revealing the role that external influences, including policies, institutions, programmes, have to play in both enhancing the productivity of existing activities and transforming livelihood activities:

• The intervention of a poverty reduction programme

in Hong Loc Commune, Ha Tinh Province which resulted in farmers shifting to a shorter season rice variety, leaving them less vulnerable to climatic hazards, for example, was considered by local communities to have brought substantial benefits

authorities in Ha Tinh Province, 19/06/09.

RU R A L LI V ELI HOOD T R EN DS

26

An improved irrigation system was also established

through this programme, resulting in an overall

increase in income from agriculture (Farmers also

noted, however, that the new rice variety requires a

higher volume of fertilizers and chemicals on top of

the cost of purchasing rice seeds, so overall production

became more costly.)

• In Hue in the 1990s, following Doi Moi land reforms,

local Government supported an expansion of

aquaculture through privatisation Net enclosures and

ponds were used to assert exclusive property rights

over areas of Tam Giang lagoon common fishing

grounds This led to conflicts with traditional mobile

fishers needing waterway access Considerable effort

to resolve the conflict between wealthy and poorer

groups caused by lagoon privatization involved local

University researchers and Government with support

from international agencies.65

• Rapid expansion of Tam Giang lagoon commercial

aquaculture led to massive pollution problems The

Hue ICZM project began with the objective to have

Tam Giang Lagoon areas declared as

RAMSAR-protected wetlands However, in attempting to realise

this objective, and in response to serious

shrimp-farm pollution, the project refocussed on ensuring a

guidance framework for sustainable aquaculture.66

• In another example cited by villagers in Hien Van

2 Village (Vinh Hien Commune, Thua Thien Hue

Province), in 2007 the local authorities co-operated

with the Fisheries Association to rearrange nò sáo (fish

corrals or stake traps made of bamboo and netting),

facilitating lagoon and river boat traffic and increasing

overall productivity An IMOLA project map (Figure

9) shows nò sáo and navigation routes within the Vinh

Hien Commune boundary In the past, uncontrolled

stake trap installation in this area of the Tam Giang

lagoon has resulted in poor water circulation and

pollution build-up, and complicated boat navigation

Due to the smallness of the mesh used, stake traps

caught juvenile as well as adult fish, becoming a chief

cause of declining fish populations The IMOLA

project finalized a stake trap rearrangement plan,

in partnership with local owners and Commune

project was established in 1995, with the second phase running

to 2001 Participating in the project were Hue University of

Agriculture and Forestry, Hue University of Sciences, and Provincial

Department of Fishery, supported by IDRC and CIDA of Canada

Truong Van Tuyen (2006); Truong Van Tuyen (2002), Brzeski and

Newkirk (2002)

leadership, and boat navigation routes, regulated by the Province and the District between 2007 and 2008

• Similarly, in An Xuan village (Ha Tinh Province), a government land consolidation initiative in 2003 resulted in better agricultural conditions and greater productivity

• Aquaculture was promoted by government policy and changes in the laws on the allocation of land and water.67 More specifically, in 1999 cage fish breeding was introduced in locations in Thua Thien Hue Province, including Hien Van 2 Village by the Integrated Management of Lagoon Activities (IMOLA) programme, in cooperation with the Fisheries extension services.68 This resulted in substantial new income for the households involved

in aquaproduct raising and trading, at least over the short term

• However, institutions may play either a positive

or negative role in livelihood transformation For example, the promotion of the rapid move into aquaculture in the Tam Giang Lagoon has been criticized, as management and regulatory capacity were insufficient A formal planning process for the aquaculture sector in the lagoon was only prepared in

2002, many years after the widespread introduction of aquaculture.69 While lessons have been learnt by the provincial authorities and other bodies, the impact of unregulated and poorly managed practices has been devastating

• The targeting of loans tailored to low-income households by the Policy Bank highlights the role which institutions can play in enhancing the financial capital of the poor, thereby enabling them to diversify into new livelihood strategies Low or zero interest loans of 5 million VND for production activities, with a repayment period of 2-5 years and repayment exemption during certified natural disasters have enabled poor households in some study locations

Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, funded jointly by the Italian and Vietnamese governments started in August

2005 The project is aimed at assisting the Thua Thien Hue Province

to promote the livelihoods of local fisherfolk through the sound and sustainable management of natural resources in the Tam Giang- Cau Hai Lagoon Forty-six IMOLA reports can be found at http:// www.imolahue.org/reports.html/ Of these, one looks at climate change impacts, in the context of traditional knowledge, and coping strategies of local people to reduce vulnerability to floods An and Hoang (2007).

Thua Thien Hue Province’s Integrated Coastal Zone Management Strategy

RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

Figure 9: Map of Vinh Hien Commune, showing nò sáo distribution and navigation routes IMOLA, 2009

Legend

CPC Stake Irap Toppormap-extracted commune border GPS-mapped commune border Navigation route

to develop local businesses, for example through

the purchase of rice threshing machines, which has

enhanced their income (see Figure 35: Text Box 6).70

As recommended in the final section, tailored institutional

interventions can provide long-term positive outcomes

for natural resource management that can build

climate-resilience of rural poor livelihoods In future however,

there needs to be a shift from interventions necessary to

remedy problems resulting from a lack of planning, to

interventions that foresee and avert such problems While

categorisation of adaptation strategies into ‘responsive’

and ‘anticipatory’ is too artificial to be useful as a planning

tool, timely identification and execution of pro-active

adaptation measures to projected effects of climate change

is required

C 5.2 Social capital and livelihoods

Many respondents at village level highlighted the

contribution which social capital makes to their livelihood

activities Households which are involved in agriculture

detailed how labour is often pooled during peak seasons,

such as the time of harvesting, for instance Considerable

mutual support is also provided during times of extreme

hazards This is detailed in the following section of the

report At some locations groups of households had

established ‘tontins’, informal revolving loan funds Where

agricultural cooperatives existed, these assisted members

in obtaining seeds, fertilizers and other inputs Similarly,

on the activity which beneficiary households wish to undertake It

was noted by some villagers who wished to engage in animal-raising,

for example, that 5 million VND is insufficient to purchase a

full-grown or large animal.

Fishing Associations facilitate the livelihood activities of those involved in fishing and aquaculture

Villagers also reported how membership of mass organizations enables them to access loans with preferential conditions Women who were members of the Women’s Union described their access to loans from the union, and the assistance they received in purchasing health care cards, for example Farmers who are members of the Farmers’ Union receive similar support As already noted, the Social Policy Bank runs a scheme whereby poor households can readily access loan funds to improve their livelihoods Yet some of the poorest and vulnerable households may not

be benefiting from such sources of support Female-headed households, for example, which have very few assets on which to draw, may be hesitant to take on loans due to the fear of being unable to repay and falling into debt An example of such a case is presented in Figure 15 Hence while it has been understood for some time that women

in Viet Nam have been disadvantaged in accessing credit through formal channels due to a lack of collateral,71 even when loans are specifically targeted at such vulnerable households, some remain too poor to access these due to their fears of indebtedness

C.6 Resource degradation as a driver of livelihood change

C 6.1 Livelihood and resource changes

Several examples were identified whereby an overall decline in the natural resource base had resulted in changes

to livelihoods

RU R A L LI V ELI HOOD T R EN DS

28

In a number of study locations where households are

dependent on agriculture, villagers described how as

the local population has increased, within a context of

limited land availability, the amount of land available to

each household has decreased In some instances this has

prompted households who can afford to do so to invest

in new agricultural inputs, including higher yielding crop

varieties This intensification of agriculture has had its own

effects As was observed in an earlier study on the Tam

Giang lagoon system, for example, more intensive farming

as a result of more limited land availability has led to the

expulsion of a greater quantity of fertilizers and pesticides

into local water sources, including the lagoon, further

degrading the natural environment and resource base on

which many depend.72

Other farming households have sought out complementary

or alternative income sources It was also reported that fall

in agriculture productivity resulting from the depletion

in the land available for agriculture, combined with the

current vulnerability of existing land to the intensification

of climatic hazards, has led some poor households to

virtually abandon agriculture altogether.73 Such households

are unlikely to have many options for diversifying their

livelihoods, and are highly vulnerable

Climatic change impacts, such as sea level rise, are likely to

place an increasing burden on an already limited resource

All of these problems combined have serious implications

for future generations in terms of agriculture-based

livelihoods and wider food security

The impact of sea level rise and seawater intrusion into

estuaries on land availability have already prompted

changes in livelihood activities in Tam Hai 2 Village

(Ha Tinh Province) which is situated in a particularly

vulnerable position, between the sea and the Vinh River

Villagers reported increasing land erosion due to sea

incursion, coupled with storm tides Increased soil salinity

has already rendered some rice fields uncultivable As a

result, some households converted what was formerly

agricultural land to aquaculture, though this option is not

likely to be available to all affected households

As suggested in the final section, given projected effects

of climate change, it becomes even more critical that

MONRE and MARD work in close partnership to assess

current and future expected rates of environmental change

and resulting impacts on resource-based livelihoods, and

recommend and implement appropriate action

Discussion in Ha Tinh Province, 19/06/09 .

C 6.2 Overall decline in quantity and quality of aquatic products

Households involved in the exploitation of aquatic products, be it through near-shore sea fishing, lagoon or river fishing, cited declining catches as a critical problem facing their livelihoods Official sources in Thua Thien Hue Province have recorded a drop in catches since the 1990s 74The pressures which have affected the drop in near-shore fishing yields and the scenarios stemming from this change are captured in the adaptive cycle presented in Figure

10 The situation in Ky Ninh and Vinh Hien Communes,

as related by village and commune leaders, can be seen

to embrace points 4, 5 and 6 in the cycle However, the limited livelihood alternatives currently available to many fishing households mean that the system is at risk of reaching point 7, where continued high participation and resource depletion rates threaten a collapse of the resource base Strategic interventions will be necessary to tackle the current drift towards stage 7 As a gradual rise in ocean temperatures could see larger, higher-value fish moving

to cooler, deeper, far-shore waters, such interventions will

be critical to manage the increased competition for fish resources in near-shore areas

In addition, many fishing households in Vinh Hien Commune observed that pollution in the Tam Giang Lagoon and Thuy Tu Lagoon has resulted in changes to the ecosystem As a result, aquatic species no longer choose these locations to reproduce and grow, while the use of smaller mesh nets and indiscriminate fishing techniques means that both adult and juvenile fish and shrimp are caught, hence aquatic sources regenerate much more slowly

The complex, interlinked factors, including pollution, which are leading to the degradation of fish and shrimp supplies in the river and lagoon are outlined in a ‘problem tree’ generated by river and lagoon fishermen in Hien Hoa

II village, Vinh Hien Commune as part of the current study (Figure 11) This reveals how low levels of education, together with increasing costs of living and climatic changes have led to intense pressure on existing natural capital, and unsustainable livelihood strategies and outcomes Yet, as highlighted in the figure, few alternative livelihood options exist Indeed, this lack of options contributes to the problem Given this situation, households which rely

on the lagoon for their livelihoods are painfully aware of

Hue Province’s Integrated Coastal Zone Management Strategy (2004) This document details other changes in the lagoon eco- system such as a dramatic shift in biodiversity, including reduced macrophyte coverage, and the declining presence of bird species.

RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

Figure 10: Near-shore fishing socio-ecological cycle 75

51

Figure 10: Near-shore fishing socio-ecological cycle 75

In addition, many fishing households in Vinh Hien Commune observed that pollution in

the Tam Giang Lagoon and Thuy Tu lagoon has resulted in changes to the ecosystem As

a result, aquatic species no longer choose these locations to reproduce and grow, while

the use of smaller mesh nets and indiscriminate fishing techniques means that both adult

and juvenile fish and shrimp are caught, hence aquatic sources regenerate much more

slowly

The complex, interlinked factors, including pollution, which are leading to the

degradation of fish and shrimp supplies in the river and lagoon are outlined in a ‘problem

tree’ generated by river and lagoon fishermen in Hien Hoa II village, Vinh Hien

adaptive cycles see Holling , C.S and Gunderson, L.H 2002 Walker B et al 2002, For resilience assessment in

the fact that they can do little more75than invest in their

children’s education so that the next generation can pursue

alternative income-generating activities.76 This increases

the urgency of the identification and promotion of activities

which enable households and communities to diversify

their livelihoods and reduce the pressure on lagoon and

other aquatic resources This task is increasingly critical,

given the likely further depletion of resources due to the

effects of climate change Indeed, it has been argued that

unless more sustainable resource management measures

are introduced in Tam Giang Lagoon, the entire ecosystem

may collapse.77

senior officials at PEP workshops, 2008 For more on adaptive cycles

see Holling , C.S and Gunderson, L.H 2002 Walker B et al 2002,

For resilience assessment in socio-ecological systems see http://

www.resalliance.org

New, external interventions clearly have a vital role to play There have been some apparent successes in other areas of the lagoon, such as a long-term community-based coastal resource management (CBCRM) project which included building awareness of lagoon resource degradation, the banning of destructive and illegal practices, the promotion

of multi-species and environmentally sustainable aquaculture, and participatory, inter-sectoral planning for resource governance Key stakeholders such as the Provincial Department of Fisheries, and the district Department of Agriculture and Rural Development were also involved.78 Other, lagoon-wide measures are required

as a matter of urgency Adaptive measures are addressed in the final section

project was carried out in Quang Tai, Quang Loi and Sam Chuon.