Masters thesis of social science evaluating climate change mitigation and adaptation considerations in the victorian planning system, australia

Local Government Act 2020 Vic LPPF Local Planning Policy Framework SPPF State Planning Policy Framework UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VCAT Victorian Civil

Evaluating Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Considerations in the Victorian Planning System,

Australia

A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

Master of Social Science

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Dedication

To God, the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit

To my late Dad, Honourable Justice R.Oladepo Yussuff

Declaration

I certify that except where due acknowledgement has been made, this research is that of the author alone; the content of this research submission is the result of work which has been carried out since the official commencement date of the approved research program; any editorial work, paid or unpaid, carried out by a third party is acknowledged; and, ethics procedures and guidelines have been followed

In addition, I certify that this submission contains no material previously submitted for award

of any qualification at any other university or institution, unless approved for a joint-award with another institution, and acknowledge that no part of this work will, in the future, be used

in a submission in my name, for any other qualification in any university or other tertiary institution without the prior approval of the University, and where applicable, any partner institution responsible for the joint-award of this degree

I acknowledge that copyright of any published works contained within this thesis resides with the copyright holder(s) of those works

I give permission for the digital version of my research submission to be made available on the web, via the University’s digital research repository, unless permission has been granted by the University to restrict access for a period of time

Olusegun Yussuff

1 October 2019

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Acknowledgements

It would have been difficult for me to complete this Research Master’s thesis if not for the considerable efforts and consistent support of some people who have made this significant journey of my life possible First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to

my supervisors, Dr Melissa Neave, Associate Professor Susie Moloney, and Associate Professor Andrew Butt, who provided remarkable support and guidance throughout my research journey

My most profound appreciation goes to Associate Professor Georgina Heydon, Dr Georgia Garrard and Associate Professor Andrew Butt, who chaired my milestone seminars In addition, Professor Wendy Steele and Dr Brian Coffey were my independent assessors

I am grateful to the administrative and academic staff in the School of Global, Urban and Social Studies (GUSS) for their assistance in every aspect of my study Most especially the Higher Degree Research (HDR) Programme Manager, Associate Professor Georgina Heydon; your support and assistance on my candidature came when I needed it most Special thanks also go

to other staff, Jenni Morris, Cassie Coates and Clare Thompson To my fellow HDR students and friends, Leul Tadessel Sidelil, Sadaf Saeed and Louisiana Paganelli Silva I cherish the relationship we have built over this research period

A special appreciation goes to my beloved wife, Dideoluwa Comfort and my two adorable daughters, Tolunimi Avivah and Inimiloluwa Maranatha, for their unconditional support, encouragement and understanding throughout my master’s thesis study journey

Table of Contents

Dedication ii

Declaration iii

Acknowledgements iv

Table of Contents v

List of Abbreviation ix

List of Tables x

List of Figures xi

Abstract 1

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 3

1.1 Research Context 3

1.1.1 Background of the research 3

1.1.2 Is the Existing Planning Framework in Victoria, Australia Capable of Responding to Climate Change? 7 1.2 Rationale of the study 9

1.3 Research Purpose 10

1.4 Research Objectives 11

1.5 Research Questions 11

1.6 Study Scope 11

1.7 Overview of Research Design 12

1.8 Overview of Case Study 13

1.8.1 Background to Case Study 13

1.8.2 Policy Context of Case Study 14

1.9 Structure of the Thesis 16

CHAPTER TWO: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE LAND USE PLANNING CONTEXT: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE 17

2.1 Overview 17

2.2 Planning for Climate Change 17

2.2.1 Climate Change and Cities 19

2.2.2 Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment 26

2.2.3 Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions through land-use planning 28

2.2.4 Adapting to Climate Change through land-use planning 30

2.3 Integrating Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Cities 33

2.3.1 Synergies, Conflicts and Trade-offs between Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation 36

2 4 Challenges to Planning for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation 39

2.5 Plan Evaluation Research 41

2.5.1 Evaluating climate change mitigation and adaptation in land-use plans 45

2.5.2 Awareness-Analysis-Action (3As) Evaluation Framework 46

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CHAPTER THREE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR LAND USE

PLANNING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN VICTORIA 51

3.1 Overview 51

3.2 Framework for Climate Change in Australia 51

3.3 Victorian Legislation, Regulatory Framework and Policy Context 54

3.3.1 Key Planning Legislation 54

3.3.2 Planning Regulation and Processes 60

3.3.3 Policy and Strategies 71

3.3.3.1 Victorian Coastal Strategy 2014 71

3.3.3.2 Victoria's Climate Change Framework 73

3.3.3.3 Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2017 - 2020 73

3.4 Institutional Structures for Managing Land Use Planning in Victoria 73

3.4.1 The Minister for Planning 74

3.4.2 The Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning 75

3.4.3 Local councils 76

3.4.4 Victorian Planning Authority 76

3.4.5 Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) 77

3.4.6 Planning Panels Victoria 81

CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH DESIGN 84

4.1 Overview 84

4.2 Research Focus 84

4.2.1 Research aims 84

4.2.2 Research Objectives 85

4.2.3 Research Questions 85

4.3 Research Framework 85

4.3.1 Conceptual Framework 85

4.3.2 Research Outline 89

4.3.2.1 Assessing awareness of climate change 89

4.3.2.2 Assessing understanding/evidence of risks and vulnerability 90

4.3.2.3 Identifying actions in the local land use planning 91

4.4 Research Methodology 92

4.4.1 Case Study Research 92

4.4.2 Content Analysis Methods 94

4.4.3 Planning Quality Analysis 96

4.4.4 Evaluation Scoring Protocol 99

4.4.4.1 Scoring of indicators 99

4.5 Research Methods 101

4.5.1 Sample Frame and Data Source 101

4.5.2 Phase I: Assessing the State Planning Framework 102

4.5.2.1 Sample Selection 102

4.5.2.2 Research Design 102

4.5.2.3 Data Analysis 103

4.5.3 Phase II: Assessing Local land use Implementation on Climate Change 103

4.5.3.1 Sample Selection 103

4.5.3.2 Research Design 105

4.5.3.3 Data Analysis 105

4.5.4 Phase III: Synthesising the findings 105

4.6 Limitation of Research Design 106

CHAPTER FIVE: ASSESSING THE STATE PLANNING FRAMEWORK FOR AWARENESS AND

ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 107

5.1 Overview 107

5.2 Objective 1: To assess the level of climate change awareness in the state and local planning policies and regulation 108

5.2.1 Assessing the awareness of climate change in key planning legislation in Victoria 109

5.2.2 Assessing the awareness of climate change in the state planning regulation and policies 111

5.2.3 Summary of awareness component 114

5.3 Objective 2: To assess the level of understanding of risk and vulnerability in the state and local planning policies, and regulation 116

5.3.1 Assessing the analytical capability/evidence of risk and vulnerability assessment in the planning legislation in Victoria 116

5.3.2 Assessing the analytical capability/evidence of risks and vulnerability assessment in the state planning policies and regulation 118

5.3.3 Summary of Analysis component 120

5.4 Awareness and Analysis (AA) Planning Quality Evaluation (Breadth and Depth Scores) 121

5.4.1 Overall performance of planning legislations 121

5.4.1.1 Indicator performance for awareness component in planning legislations 123

5.4.1.2 Indicator performance for analysis component in planning legislations 124

5.4.2 Overall performance of planning policies, strategies, and regulation 125

5.4.2.1 Indicator performance of awareness component for planning policies and regulation 126

5.4.2.2 Indicator performance of analysis component for planning policies and regulation 127

5.4.3 Summary of the Awareness & Analysis (AA) Performance 128

CHAPTER SIX: ASSESSING LOCAL LAND-USE IMPLEMENTATION AND ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 129

6.1 Introduction 129

6.2 Overall performance of the planning schemes 130

6.3 Indicators Performance of planning schemes 132

6.3.1 Indicator performance for Awareness component in local planning schemes 132

6.3.2 Indicator performance for Analysis component in local planning schemes 132

6.3.3 Indicator performance for Action component in local planning schemes 133

6.4 Overall performance of the three planning schemes 134

6.5 Summary 135

CHAPTER SEVEN: CURRENT ISSUES AND CHALLENGES 136

7.1 Overview 136

7.2 Level of Awareness of Climate Change in the Victorian Planning System 136

7.3 Lack of analytical capability in the Victorian Planning System to address climate change issues 138

7.4 Implementing Land-Use Mitigation and Adaptation Actions Across Levels of Government in Victoria 140

7.4.1 Land use mitigation action in Victoria's Planning System 140

7.4.2 Land use adaptation action in the Victorian Planning System 141

7.4.3 Addressing integration of mitigation/adaptation in the Victorian planning system 142

7.4.4 Addressing roles and responsibilities 143

7.5 Chapter Summary 145

CHAPTER EIGHT: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE RESEARCH 147

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8.1 Overview 147

8.2 Summary of Research Findings 148

8.2.1 Objective 1: To assess the level of climate change awareness in the State and local planning policies and regulation 148

8.2.2 Objective 2: To analyse the level of understanding of risks and vulnerability in the state and local planning policies and regulation 150

8.2.3 Objective 3: To identify the implementable climate change actions in the local land use planning 151

8.3 Current issues and challenges in the Victorian planning system 152

8.3.1 Awareness of the planning systems to climate change issues 152

8.3.2 Lack of analytical capability in the planning system to address climate change issues 153

8.3.3 Implementing land-use mitigation and adaptation actions across levels of government 154

8.4 Comments and recommendation 157

8.5 Research Limitation 158

8.6 Future Research 159

REFERENCES 161

List of Abbreviation

AAA Awareness-Analysis-Action

CCA Climate Change Adaptation

CCA2017 Climate Change Act of 2017

CCMA Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

CCM Climate Change Mitigation

DELWP Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

GHGs Greenhouse Gas Emissions

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

PEA Planning and Environment Act 1987

LGA Local Government Act 2020 (Vic)

LPPF Local Planning Policy Framework

SPPF State Planning Policy Framework

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VCAT Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal

VCCAP Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Plan

VCS Victoria Coastal Strategy

VPA Victorian Planning Authority

VPPs Victoria Planning Provisions

VPS Victorian Planning System

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List of Tables

Table 2.1: Major differences between climate change mitigation and adaptation…….28 Table 2.2: Interrelationship between mitigation and adaptation……… ….….30 – 31 Table 4.1: As evaluation framework designed for this study……… 86-87 Table 4.2: Selection criteria for sample local council……… 92

Table 5.1: Planning instruments analysed in the State Planning Framework…………97 Table 5.2: Evaluation scores for planning legislations……… 110-111 Table 5.3: Indicator’s performance index for planning legislations……… 113 Table 5.4: Evaluation scores for planning policies, strategies, and regulation….… 115 Table 5.5: Indicator performance for planning policies, strategies, and regulation….116 Table 6.1: Planning schemes evaluation scores……….…… 120 Table 6.2: Indicator’s performance index……….………122

List of Figures

Figure 4.1: Components of research framework (Awareness-Analysis-Action) ……….77

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Abstract

To successfully address the risks of climate change in a coherent and coordinated manner, both climate change mitigation (CCM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) policies must be integrated into the governance and policy frameworks of regional (state) and local planning systems With mitigation set towards reducing the effects of climate change, adaptation is about building adaptive capacity to reduce the vulnerabilities to climate risks and impacts However, CCA and CCM are commonly pursued separately, partially due to the way they were initially framed as two approaches with different measures and priorities to address the same problem (climate change), thereby creating an adaptation and mitigation dichotomy The consideration of climate adaptation and mitigation actions into land-use planning has been identified as a process to simultaneously enhance the integration of both approaches In turn, this integration could better facilitate the development of strategies towards achieving sustainable urban development However, several barriers remain that hinder the integration of climate change into land use planning

This thesis examines the extent to which climate change mitigation and adaptation have been addressed in land-use planning, drawing on empirical analysis of the Victorian planning system The research assesses climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in Victoria’s key planning instruments and the state climate change framework through qualitative content analysis to understand the current state of play in the state planning system The research employed a well-tested evaluation framework to analyse the Victorian land use planning system using the Awareness-Analysis-Action (3As) framework to address four research objectives This research is structured into three phases Firstly, the State Planning Framework was assessed, focusing on essential state planning and climate change instruments to

understand the extent of consideration of climate change in the planning system and the level

of analytical capability the planning instruments have demonstrated to address the impacts of climate change in Victoria Secondly, three local planning schemes were selected and assessed

to understand the extent of awareness and analytical capability of climate change and what local land use action on climate change is present at the local planning level As part of this study, both content analysis and planning quality analysis were used in which policy documents were coded, analysed, and evaluated The research employs plan evaluation research as a core paradigm to understand the extent and level of climate change integration into Victoria's State and local planning policies and regulations

The final phase of this research discusses the current issues and challenges arising from the State and local planning policies and regulations in Victoria, specifically, the findings from the analysis of the contents of the State Planning Framework and the plan quality evaluation of the three local planning schemes The synthesising of the different analyses focused on understanding where the planning legislation influences state policies and strategies, which provides leadership and guidance for local planning policy framework in addressing climate change issues The findings highlight the need for improved integration between planning and climate change legislation and policies, developing planning strategies that encourage synergy between mitigation and adaptation and ensuring robust risk and vulnerability planning informed by hazard mapping systems

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CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Research Context

1.1.1 Background of the research

The reduction of carbon emissions and the development of climate-resilient cities are emerging as key goals for ensuring sustainable urban development (Grafakos et al., 2019) Climate change and urbanization represent dual challenges for cities worldwide (Xu et al., 2019) Future trends point to an increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

in general (Xu et al., 2019), while the rapid urbanization of cities makes achieving future climate targets more difficult (McPhearson et al., 2016) In addition, the compounding effects

of climate change and urban development are making cities increasingly vulnerable to extreme climate events (Aerts et al., 2014; Birkmann et al., 2016; IPCC, 2012; Mechler & Schinko, 2016) and global warming is expected to exacerbate heat waves in urban areas, negatively impacting public health (Founda & Santamouris, 2017; Mora et al., 2017; Shen et al., 2016; Ward et al., 2016)

As a result, planning strategies that enable cities to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate climate changes while building adaptation to climate changes are crucial for global urbanization (Hallegatte et al., 2016; B Jones, 2017) Even though urban land use is affected by carbon dioxide emissions and climate stress, land-use planning can significantly mitigate climate change (Bulkeley, 2013) Although the link between the form of cities, CO2

emissions, and climate stressors/stresses is becoming increasingly clear, mitigation and adaptation are rarely considered at the same time in research and policy However, planning and action should be an equal priority for mitigation and adaptation of climate change (IPCC, 2014; Pancost, 2016; Rosenzweig et al., 2010) Studies have consistently shown that urban forms characterized by high densities, mixed land uses, and valuable transit connections and

accessibility can reduce vehicle travel and greenhouse gas emissions by the transportation sector (Creutzig et al., 2016; Lee & Lee, 2014) Consequently, developing compact city designs has become more common in recent years to limit sprawl, reduce automobile dependence, and save on energy consumption and GHG emissions from transportation (Zhao et al., 2011) In addition, an extensive body of literature has been published about the effects of urban form on climate stress and associated adaptation strategies (Xu et al., 2019)

Several studies have established that the fundamental challenge in historical global efforts to address climate change has been mainly about how mitigation and adaptation have been mistakenly framed in both science and policy as two distinct, or disconnected approaches for resolving the same problem, with limited regard for possible synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between them (Biesbroek et al., 2009; Duguma et al., 2014a; Grafakos et al., 2019; Huang-Lachmann and Guenther, 2020; Klein et al., 2007; Klein et al., 2005; Swart and Raes, 2007a)

This has created what Biesbroek et al., refers to as the adaptation-mitigation dichotomy (2009),

wherein mitigation and adaptation approaches fail to be integrated into the development of coherent and well-coordinated climate change policies across temporal and spatial scales (Klein et al., 2007) Most institutional research and policy integration initiatives on climate change have continued to operate like this Their focus has been on either adaptation or mitigation and has ignored any likely interactions between the two climate change objectives (Di Gregorio et al., 2015a)

Climate change mitigation, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is the 'anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks

of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere’ while adaptation is the ‘adjustment in the natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities’ (IPCC, 2007, p 869) Swart and

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Raes (2007b) argue that these definitions enhance the dichotomy between the two approaches For instance, there was hope during the first years of establishing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that mitigation would be sufficient to resolve climate change and there should be no need to push for robust adaptation strategies (Van Noordwijk et al., 2011) Unfortunately, this has resulted in divergent mitigation and adaptation approaches being adopted (Duguma, Minang, et al., 2014), and mitigation and adaptation have continued to be implemented or considered independently of one another in both policy and research (Verchot

et al., 2007) In addition, many scholars and institutions have continued to address the two approaches adopting different frameworks and methods (Ayers & Huq, 2009; Bajracharya et al., 2011; Biesbroek et al., 2009; Cuevas, 2016; Picketts et al., 2014)

In terms of planning for climate change, current research and policy studies are mostly dominated by either adaptation or mitigation considerations, rather than combining both climate change objectives in an integrated manner Examples of individual approaches include: direction for mainstreaming adaptation (Kok & de Coninck, 2007); urban development (Farrell, 2010); mainstreaming adaptation in agriculture and water sector (Nambi & Sivapuram, 2011); adaptation through development assistance (Sietz et al., 2011); adaptation into development planning (Lebel et al., 2012); adaptation in the EU water policy (Brouwer et al., 2013); development planning (Ayers et al., 2014); incorporating adaptation in local plans (Picketts et al., 2014); climate adaptation as a multi-level governance agenda (Steele, 2014); local level (Rauken et al., 2015); ecosystem service-based adaptation in municipal planning (Wamsler & Pauleit, 2016); and donor-aided projects (Locatelli et al., 2015) Furthermore, a few studies have considered the role of land use and urban planning in climate change, e.g., adaptation into urban planning (Uittenbroek et al., 2013), the challenges of mainstreaming climate adaptation

in local land use planning (Cuevas, 2016), and planning and sustainable adaptation to rising sea levels (Hurlimann et al., 2014) While all these studies contributed to the literature on the integration of the climate change process and progress, considerable knowledge gaps remain

as research has revealed that neither of the climate change objectives on their own (i.e.,

mitigation or adaptation alone) can provide the practical strategies needed to achieve

sustainable urban development (Di Gregorio et al., 2015; Klein et al., 2005)

Recent studies supporting the need to consider both mitigation and adaptation together have continued to emerge (Di Gregorio et al., 2015a; Duguma et al., 2014a; Göpfert et al., 2018; Klein et al., 2005; Laukkonen et al., 2009; Ping Ngang et al., 2014; Shaw et al., 2014) Klein et al (2005) argued that it should no longer be debated as to which is the most important between mitigation or adaptation in climate change since both are needed to reduce the associated risks and achieve sustainable urban development Shaw et al (2007) also point out that though there has been evidence of challenges to integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives in policy and research, it is necessary to consider both to achieve genuinely sustainable development

There is growing recognition that land-use planning can play a crucial role in facilitating the integration of both climate change objectives by helping to reduce greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions (mitigation) and supporting the building of adaptive capacity to cope with climate change (adaptation) (American Planning Association, 2011; Cuevas, 2016; Davoudi, 2009; Friesecke et al., 2012; Hagen, 2016; Stern, 2006; Tang et al., 2009) Biesbroek

et al (2009) and Swart and Raes (2007b) concluded that since climate change influences the traditional administrative structures within which statutory land use planning is performed, it can identify and bridge the dichotomies between adaptation and mitigation through strategic land use planning practices Nonetheless, several barriers remain that hinder the integration of

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climate change and research aiming at this is limited Several of these barriers are more prominent in institutional contexts where land use planning occurs (Measham et al., 2011) Among the institutional context, factors are uncertainty associated with climate change, lack

of information, resource shortages within institutional planning policies, and the relegation of institutional responsibilities and objectives to the bottom rung of institutional priorities For instance, determining the successful analytical measures for climate adaptation remains a challenge for urban planning as it responds to sea-level rise (Hurlimann et al., 2014) In addition, the capacity to adapt to an ever-changing environment sustainably and reasonably, ensuring the survival of planning institutions and communities at risk, is necessary for climate change adaptation (Hurlimann et al., 2014)

The challenge of planning for climate change is both an imperative and an institutional one Planning responses to climate change requires a solid understanding of how institutions identify, recognize, and respond to stressors Climate mitigation and adaptation are operationalised in this case as central tenets of planning governance through institutional codification and implementation of policies and objectives (Matthews, 2013) It is argued that the ability to undergo institutional change will determine whether the planning regime can respond effectively to the imperative of climate mitigation and adaptation The effect of internal and external pathways and barriers to change on institutional change is further argued

to be highly determinant of a capacity for institutional change (Matthews, 2013)

1.1.2 Is the Existing Planning Framework in Victoria, Australia Capable of Responding

to Climate Change?

Considerations of climate change in the Victorian planning system

First, this study will investigate whether the Victorian planning system has sufficiently considered climate change in its State and local planning policy instruments, or it is still lacking There is significant agreement among researchers(Kumar & Geneletti, 2015; Tang et al., 2010; Xu et al., 2019) regarding the difficulty in integrating mitigation and adaptation policies due to the uncertainties surrounding urban planners' knowledge of climate change impacts and their understanding of the complexity of the interactions between mitigation and adaptation policies An assessment of climate change considerations in a Victorian planning jurisdiction aims to identify the extent to which State and local planning policies account for key drivers of climate change and their impacts in Victoria (Baker et al., 2012; Kumar & Geneletti, 2015) The study considers climate change objectives and the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and their impacts on climate variables within the Victoria planning documents

Evidence and understanding of climate-related risks and vulnerability

Secondly, the study assesses the level of understanding of climate change impact assessment, risk-based planning and vulnerability assessment addressed in the Victorian planning system Based on prior studies (Laukkonen et al., 2009), adaptation capabilities and vulnerability to climate change vary by planning jurisdiction Given these reasons, Burton et

al (2004) and Webb et al (2013) note that planning regulatory frameworks should incorporate vulnerability assessment into the planning process based on individual planning needs Therefore, this study investigates the evidence and understanding of the potential risks and vulnerabilities to climate change within the Victoria's State and local planning jurisdictions

Constraints on planning actions

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The constraints on planning actions are basically due to the inability of Urban planners and decision-makers to understand the effects of climate change and make appropriate planning decisions: constraints arising from land-use adaptation and mitigation actions; institutional constraints and constraints of developing an appropriate methodology for assessing the integration of mitigation and adaptation and not either adaptation or mitigation measures While progress has been made in the climate change integration process at the international level, appropriate knowledge is still lacking at the regional and local levels The challenge lies

in developing methods and tools for implementing adaptation and mitigation simultaneously (Landauer et al., 2015) In light of recent research on mitigation and adaptation to climate change, this study aims to evaluate the integration of mitigation and adaptation of climate change in urban land use planning The action component in this study would examine the extent to which climate change mitigation and adaptation considerations have been incorporated into the Victorian planning system

1.2 Rationale of the study

The research asserts that understanding climate change and the capability of the planning institution to recognise and evaluate climate change is key to planning effective mitigation and adaptation responses However, to date, the critical components necessary for providing evidence of the level of climate change consideration in the planning system, its understanding of climate change related risks and vulnerability, and planning responses and engagement in the climate change mitigation and adaptation framework in Victoria, Australia, have not been clearly or purposefully used Moreover, to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of existing climate change mitigation and adaptation frameworks as outlined in State climate change legislation, it is necessary to identify possible constraints and challenges

in Victoria's State and local planning frameworks Thus, this thesis offers a comprehensive approach to addressing these concerns through analysis of the State planning framework and selected local planning schemes

1.3 Research Purpose

This research aims to contribute to the existing body of knowledge on climate change research, adding to the global effort to reduce the risks of climate change by assessing the

integration of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions into land use planning system

in Victoria, Australia This work draws on existing research on plan quality evaluation and climate change studies to understand the context, concepts, dimensions, and approaches through which the integration of climate change mitigation and adaptation can be understood The study employs an existing evaluation framework to analyse the land use planning system

in Victoria, Australia (Elgendawy et al., 2020; Jhan, 2017; Kumar & Geneletti, 2015; Luers & Moser, 2006a; Tang et al., 2009, 2010, 2012; UKCIP, 2003) The Awareness-Analysis-Action (3As) framework asserts that understanding planning policy awareness of climate change, risks and vulnerability; and planning actions and engagement can lead to effective mitigation and adaptation policy planning (Kumar & Geneletti, 2015; Tang et al., 2010) However, to date, the critical components for assessing current awareness of, vulnerability to, and stakeholder engagement with climate change have not been explicitly utilised in the planning framework

in Victoria, Australia As such, this study seeks to use this framework to better understand the current issues and challenges associated with integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation and the critical role land use planning plays in this ongoing process The need for this knowledge is critical given the growing impacts of urbanization and the increasing vulnerabilities of human populations to climate change

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1.4 Research Objectives

This research considered four research objectives designed to improve our

understanding of the extent to which climate change mitigation and adaptation have been

integrated into land use planning These objectives include:

• To assess the level of awareness of climate change in the Victoria State and local planning policies and regulations

• To assess the level of understanding of risk and vulnerability considered in the State and local planning policies and regulations

• To identify the climate change actions in the local land-use planning (planning schemes)

• Synthesise the findings of the State and local planning policies to determine the current issues and challenges in the Victorian planning system

1.5 Research Questions

The overarching research question for this study is: how have both climate change

mitigation and adaptation considerations been integrated into the Victorian Planning System?

In addressing this research question, the thesis focuses on two sub-questions:

Sub-question 1: To what extent are the current State and local planning policies and regulations prepared to adapt, mitigate, and plan for climate change?

Sub-question 2: What are the gaps and inconsistencies in the state and local planning policies identified in the above context?

1.6 Study Scope

The scope of this study is to understand how mitigation and adaptation actions have been considered in the key strategic State Planning Framework and selected Local Planning

Schemes in Victoria, Australia The focus of this study is not to assess the interactions that interplay between mitigation and adaptation actions or the implications of dealing with the two climate change objectives separately Rather, this study analyses whether the contents of the state and local planning policy frameworks address both mitigation and adaptation considerations and identifies the extent to which the Victorian planning system shows preparedness toward the impacts of climate change On the same note, climate change impacts

in Victoria are diverse and manifest in many ways, such as rising sea levels, droughts, heatwaves, and floods Therefore, this thesis narrows the analyses in this research to coastal hazards and bush fire risks, which are the current urgent impacts in Victoria

1.7 Overview of Research Design

This research draws on a conceptual framework established by different empirical evidence and literature gathered from several case studies of plan evaluation This research was based on both qualitative data collection and analysis As earlier stated, the research employed

a well-tested evaluation framework to analyse the Victorian land use planning system using the Awareness-Analysis-Action (3As) framework to address the four research objectives This research is structured into three phases Firstly, the State Planning Framework was assessed, focusing on essential state planning and climate change instruments to understand the extent

of awareness of climate change in the planning system and the level of analytical capability the planning instruments has demonstrated to address the impacts of climate change in Victoria

Secondly, three local planning schemes were selected and assessed to understand the extent of awareness and analytical capability of climate change and what local land use action

on climate change is present at the local planning level This research utilised both content analysis and planning quality analysis which involved the coding, summarising, and evaluating

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of policy documents across the first and second phase of this study The research employed plan evaluation research as a core paradigm to understand the extent and level of climate change preparedness and integration in Victoria's State and local planning policies and regulations

The final phase of this research discusses the current issues and challenges arising from the State and local planning policies and regulations in Victoria, specifically, the findings from the analysis of the contents of the State Planning Framework (Chapter Five) and the plan quality evaluation of the three local planning schemes (Chapter Six) The synthesising of these chapters focused on understanding where the planning legislation stands in influencing state policies and strategies, which provides leadership and guidance for local planning policy framework in addressing climate change issues (Chapter Seven)

1.8 Overview of Case Study

1.8.1 Background to Case Study

This research consists of a case study of planning policy instruments in Victoria Victoria is one of the Australian state governments and territories that have been proactive in setting an agenda on climate change, primarily implementing adaptation and mitigation policy measures (Bulkeley, 2013; Fuenfgeld, 2013; Mercer & Jotkowitz, 2000; Moloney & Fünfgeld, 2015) However, recent evidence suggests that Victoria faces severe climate change risks, including bushfires, sea-level rise (coastal erosion and inundation), extreme weather events and increase changes to the rainfall patterns, floods and drought (Moloney & Fünfgeld, 2015) Also, many challenges are associated with its growing population of 6.661 million people as of December 2020, a figure that has made it the most densely populated state in Australia (ABS, 2020) These indices are influenced mainly by the increasing population growth of the

Melbourne metropolitan region, making it the third fastest-growing region in Australia, as the Victoria population growth is projected to hit 10.1 million people in 2051 (ABS, 2020; DELWP, 2016) This growth has placed an increasing pressure on land use which subsequently promote the generation of significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere (Bulkeley, 2013; C40 Cities, 2017)

1.8.2 Policy Context of Case Study

The state and the local governments are responsible for preparing and implementing policies in Victoria With the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) coordination, the state government sets policies and priorities for development work This study assesses two types of policy documents: State Planning Frameworks and Local Planning Schemes In Victoria, the key piece of legislation providing the framework for the

planning system is the Planning and Environment Act 1987 Land use and development

objectives are articulated within the 79 local government councils through their individual planning schemes DELWP is responsible for planning and climate change issues (Eccles and

Bryant, 2011) Likewise, the Planning and Environment Act specifies the content of these

schemes, the process of amending them, and the administration of the planning schemes

Subordinate legislation under the Act is the Victorian Planning Provisions (VPPs) The

Victorian Planning Provisions articulate comprehensive state-wide provisions, including zones

and overlays, to develop planning schemes Local governments establish their Local Planning Policy Frameworks (LPPFs) in the planning schemes, which define their development's vision

and municipal strategic direction In addition to the Planning and Environment Act, some other

laws and policies affect the use of land and development (Eccles and Bryant, 2011) Among

them is the Building Act, 1993, Environment Effects Act of 1978, Heritage Act of 2017, Local

Government Act 2020, Subordinate Legislation Act of 1994, and Victorian Civil and

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Administrative Tribunal Act of 1998 However, the legislation included in this study along with

the mainstream legislation (Planning and Environment Act 1987 and Climate Change Act

2017) for land use planning and climate change is the Marine and Coastal Act 2018 and the

Local Government Act 2020 The Marine and Coastal Act 2018 provides coastal protection and

allows Victoria to address the long-term challenges of climate change, population growth, and

the coastline's ageing infrastructures The Local Government Act 2020 outlines broad legal

responsibilities for local governments in Victoria and gives local governments their primary legislative authority The regulatory and policy included in this study along with the Victoria’s Planning Provisions is the Victorian Coastal Strategy (VCS) 2014 Coastal planning and

management in Victoria are facilitated by the Victorian Coastal Strategy 2014 (VCS), which

provides a framework for vision and implementation

Several levels of government and policy areas influence climate change mitigation and

adaptation actions in Victoria As a key legislative instrument, the Climate Change Act 2017

calls for action on climate change In addition to creating a framework for long-term mitigation

and adaptation, the Climate Change Act 2017 requires specific decisions and actions to be taken

in response to climate change A list of key climate change documents outlines the state's

response to climate change, including the Climate Change Act 2017 and Victoria's Climate

Change Framework The Victoria’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2017-2050 sets out a

series of measures to meet climate change challenges and maximize opportunities Although other policies and legislation can have some influence on the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in Victoria, the ones considered for analysis are the most relevant to the research

questions Local government council planning schemes such as the Yarra City Planning

Scheme, Bayside City Planning Scheme and the Yarra Ranges Planning Scheme were selected

for investigation in this research

1.9 Structure of the Thesis

This Master’s thesis is structured into eight chapters Chapter 1 identifies the current state of knowledge about climate change adaptation and mitigation, the gap in that knowledge and the research aims and objectives Chapter 2 presents a more thorough investigation of the literature relating to climate change research, mitigation and adaptation objectives This chapter

also provides an overview of the role of land use planning in climate change mitigation and adaptation Chapter 3 presents the research framework and methods used in this study Chapter

4 presents an overview of the framework for land use planning and climate change in Victoria, Australia, particularly considering key legislation, planning policies, strategies and regulation Chapter 5 presents an analysis of Victoria’s State Planning Framework, using the first two components (Awareness and Analysis) of the 3A’s evaluation framework Chapter 6 presents

a planning policy analysis of three selected local planning schemes to investigate the extent of climate change preparedness and integration into local planning schemes in Victoria Chapter

7 provides a synthesis of the current issues and challenges for integrating climate change in State and Local planning policies The final chapter summarises the major arguments in the thesis while highlighting some directions for future research

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CHAPTER TWO: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE LAND USE PLANNING

CONTEXT: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

2.1 Overview

This chapter reviews the current literature on climate change and its impacts—particularly the relationship between land use planning and planning in climate change mitigation and adaptation Section 2.2 discusses planning for climate change, highlighting the relationship between climate change and cities; and understanding climate change and the vulnerability assessment Section 2.3 focuses on integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities; Section 2.4 discusses the challenges to planning for climate change mitigation and adaptation Lastly, Section 2.5 discusses the plan evaluation research adopted

in this research

2.2 Planning for Climate Change

This section of the review of literature draws on the existing knowledge on planning for climate change Planning for climate change involves two main approaches (Bolich, 2013;

Harrison et al., 2010): Mitigation and Adaptation On the one hand, mitigation is the

“anthropogenic intervention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions” and through the creation of

‘sinks’(IPCC, 2007, p 990, 2014) Thus, the primary goal of climate change mitigation is to reduce the overall GHGs emissions in the atmosphere On the other hand, adaptation addresses

the “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli

or their effects, that moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”(IPCC, 2007, p 982, 2014) Thus, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also acknowledges two types of adaptation: autonomous (or spontaneous) adaptation and planned (societal) adaptation Autonomous adaptation involves the various responses to climate change at the species and

habitats level, while planned adaptation involves human invention and policy actions taken to facilitate adaptation (Harrison et al., 2010) These two approaches (Mitigation and Adaptation)

to facilitating response to climate change with land use planning were further discussed in this section The purpose of this section is to explore the potential pathways through which land use planning can respond or contribute to climate change to achieve mitigation and adaptation actions

There is a considerable urgent need for land use planning to respond to global climate

change, particularly with the urgent need to address mitigation and adaptation actions that

assist with limiting the extent of climate change impacts and prepare for the inevitable consequence of climate change impacts (Stevens & Senbel, 2017) However, the body of literature exploring the links between land use planning and climate change has recently relatively emerged and evolving Also, several studies have made a case for and against

mitigation and adaptation considerations as a single policy action in a city’s planning For

example, Yohe and Strzepek indicated that mitigation and adaptation actions could be complementary and interlinked in that mitigation reduce the exposure of cities to climate change and adaptation reduces the city’s vulnerability (2007) Tol; Jones et al argued that

mitigation and adaptation address two separate policy issues across different scales and

dimensions (2007; 2005) Some other studies indicate that there are conflicts and trade-offs

between mitigation and adaptation in planning policies (Ayers & Huq, 2009; Barbhuiya et al.,

2013; Hamin & Gurran, 2009; Locatelli et al., 2015; McEvoy et al., 2006; Suckall et al., 2014;

Sugar et al., 2013) In contrast, some have suggested that successful integration of mitigation and adaptation would lead to synergetic benefits for city planning (Duguma, Wambugu, et al., 2014; Klein et al., 2007; Landauer et al., 2019) By synergetic benefits, it means mitigation and

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adaptation actions could generate gains for cities to address both objectives in a concurrent

manner (Klein et al., 2007)

2.2.1 Climate Change and Cities

The impacts of climate change on cities across global, regional, and local scales indicate that cities act as a conduit between climate change and urban actions GHG emissions from urban activities contribute to rising atmospheric temperatures, thereby affecting urban areas (Nicholls & Lowe, 2004) found that urban behaviour affects climate change negatively For this reason, both regional and local urban actions must be taken to reduce GHG emissions (McEvoy et al., 2006) In addition, several researchers have agreed that extreme weather events are likely to become more frequent and more intense due to climate change (Barnett et al., 2005; Keskitalo, 2016)

Due to how new developments usually occur today, most adverse effects of a changing climate will likely be felt mainly through cities (Macarthy, 2012) Despite this, climate change has different effects in different places and regions because of their varying vulnerability levels (Macarthy, 2012) Thus, the results may be higher in coastal and floodplain areas with low-lying coastal regions (Adger et al., 2005) However, according to several studies, climate change has the most significant impact on cities through sea-level rise, flooding, bushfires, shortage of water, human health (Huq et al., 2007; Wilby, 2007) The study focuses on these impacts mainly due to their wide acceptance, in spite of the fact that they may not be the only climate change impacts for cities

Sea-level rise

In numerous publications, sea-level rise has been cited as a significant challenge to coastal land use and urban planning processes (Hurlimann et al., 2014) Macarthy, for example,

describes sea level rise as the erosion of beaches and bluffs, a rise in inundation of low-lying areas, salt intrusion into aquifers and surface waters, and higher water tables (2012) Moreover, sea-level rise has caused human displacement in many coastal cities worldwide, where tens of millions of people have been displaced (Dasgupta et al., 2009) In addition, (UN-Habitat, 2010) asserts that local factors such as low-lying and risky areas, poor drainage, low income, inadequate sanitation, and a lack of available protection structures will further influence the potential for adverse effects

In order to minimize the risks to urban infrastructure, population, and property, it is crucial to incorporate the impacts of sea level rise into urban land use development (Zhu et al., 2015) A critical factor of sustainable mitigation is better integrating climate change and coastal management when planning and making decisions It has been identified as an urgent need for coastal planning to develop spatial decision-making tools for land-use planning and adaptation responses to climate change (Hansen, 2010) By integrating vulnerability assessments with spatial allocations, the costs and benefits of adaptation can be more effectively allocated among actors according to their level of risk (Hurlimann et al., 2014)

Adaptation to sea-level rise is almost certain to be heavily influenced by urban planning (Hurlimann et al., 2014; Measham et al., 2011) When it comes to urban planning and sea level rise, defining successful adaptation measures is one of the biggest challenges The fact that there will be losses can make success difficult to define (Luers & Moser, 2006a) It is essential that planning institutions and communities at risk can navigate and respond to the demands of

an ever-changing landscape in a way that is just and legitimate, so that they can endure for a long time (Hurlimann et al., 2014)

Bushfire Risks

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In the simplest terms, bushfires are spontaneous fires that occur in wildland, forest, and unplanned, heavily vegetated regions and can be catastrophic These disturbances have been a constant source of disturbance in various parts of the world for approximately 400 million years (Munawar, Ullah, et al., 2021) Bushfires are one of the world's most frequent, recurrent, and devastating ecological hazards, and they can have negative consequences for the environment, society, and economy (Munawar, Ullah, et al., 2021; Read & Denniss, 2020; Ullah et al., 2018; Whittaker et al., 2020) This impacts all pillars of sustainability The cause of bushfires is classified as a combination of several factors, including climatological and anthropogenic factors (Munawar, Ullah, et al., 2021) Sometimes, bushfires serve as important and necessary events in the ecology of a region and play an important role in the ecology of a region even if they are not entirely desired (Ullah et al., 2018) Despite this, unplanned and uncontrolled bushfires can cause tremendous damage to agricultural land, wiping out forests, destroying wild animals, and causing devastation to forests As a result of this, it becomes a matter of the control versus the uncontrollable bushfires that shape their outlook Whether controlled or uncontrolled, bushfires have a significant impact on the physical environment, including land use, land cover, biodiversity, forest ecosystems, and global warming, among other factors (Munawar, Ullah, et al., 2021)

In this context, it is absolutely important that we monitor bushfires to understand the impact of these events in line with the goals of intelligent and sustainable land use planning for cities in the future Compared to other natural hazards such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, bushfires are considered avoidable risks, compared to other natural hazards such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions (Munawar, 2020; Munawar et al., 2019; Munawar, Hammad, et al., 2021) Consequently, developed countries such as Australia spend a great deal

of money and effort suppressing bushfires due to bushfire suppression activities (Munawar, Ullah, et al., 2021)

A number of scientific studies have demonstrated that global warming will cause a significant increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events all around the globe within the next few decades There is high confidence that these changes, including the changes

in temperature and the appearance of heatwaves and wildfires, will negatively impact human health (Bowman et al., 2017; Field et al., 2014; Mora et al., 2017) Field et al (2014) state in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that in some regions of the world, there is an increased risk of death, injury, and disease caused

by more intense heat waves and fires due to inevitable climate changes

Traditionally, land-use planning has been considered an important means of reducing bushfire risk Despite its potential, not enough has been made use of (Groenhart et al., 2012) Bushfires are a major threat to people and infrastructure and often result in death (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2019) Despite the fact that existing data does not capture all events and effects, it is estimated that bushfires kill more than 300,000 people worldwide each year (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2019) It is also important to note that a fire at the interface between urban and bushland areas may turn into a high-risk fire that threatens people, infrastructure and the environment, as well

as emissions from fires that may have long-term effects (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2019) The State of Victoria in Australia is the hardest hit by bushfires, and recent bushfire disasters have led to the development of land use planning technologies to minimize bushfire risk (Teague et al., 2010) According to the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, after 'Black Saturday' in 2009, land use planning became the most important

20 bushfire season (Victoria Auditor-General, 2020) As a result of climate change, there is expected to be an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of natural hazards related

to heat, such as bushfires and wildfires Historically, these extreme events have been a significant burden for some segments of Australian society, and it is predicted that such extreme events will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration over time The number of direct fatalities in Australia resulting from bushfires and wildfires contributes to more than 60% of all direct deaths resulting directly from natural hazards (Borchers Arriagada et al., 2020)

The Victorian 2009 bushfires, commonly referred to as the 'Black Saturday' bushfires, sparked a significant re-think of bushfire policy in Australia, particularly the sharing of responsibility between communities and fire agencies The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was a major vehicle for the process (hereafter referred to as 'the Commission') (Borchers Arriagada et al., 2020) While the Black Saturday fires were indeed as severe as could be expected in terms of their size and intensity, they were not unprecedented in their size and intensity for south-eastern Australia However, they were significant and intense enough

to cause catastrophic damage to both communities (Borchers Arriagada et al., 2020) Despite these concerns, this event was the first time such a large and intense bushfire had occurred and

a widespread loss of human life in an urban-rural border region (see, e.g., Haynes et al., 2010)

Victoria is a state that has traditionally been vulnerable to bushfire hazards due to its geographical location In this State, the bushfires issue is aggravated, particularly by drought conditions that cause the State to be particularly prone to bushfires Although the worst of the bushfires in Victoria, Australia, occurred on Saturday, the 7th of February 2009, they are commonly referred to as the 'Black Saturday bushfires' because of the severity of the blaze (Teague et al., 2010) As one of Australia's most significant disasters, the Bushfires of 2009, was one of the worst disasters an Australian citizen has experienced, leading to 173 lives being lost, damage or destruction of 3,500 buildings and over 2,000 homes, the destruction of two townships, and significant impacts to both the natural environment and community infrastructure (Gibbs et al., 2021; Medbury et al., 2021; Teague et al., 2010)

The Black Summer Fires of 2019-2020 have been regarded as the most recent and deadliest fires to have occurred in VIC in recent memory In the wake of these bushfires, 34 people have lost their lives, more than 1.5 million hectares of Australian land have been affected, millions of animals have been killed, and 9352 buildings, including 2800 homes, have been destroyed Furthermore, due to a recurrence of bushfires throughout the south-eastern parts of Australia, VIC has become a critical state in terms of the environmental degradation

of the area Black Summer, Red Hill, Black Saturday, and many other catastrophic bushfires have afflicted the region over the years in an unparalleled manner in Australia's history (Victoria Auditor-General, 2020) However, in recent years, numerous fire seasons have been alarming since each is becoming progressively more dangerous and causing ecological and economic destruction

The State Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) has developed land-use planning controls to address the risk of bushfires These controls restrict

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developments in high risks areas across the State and set safety standards for buildings and properties In 2011, the government also introduced a program called the Powerline Bushfire Safety Program (PBSP) which aims to reduce the risk of powerlines igniting bushfires as part

of its attempt to prevent them from happening The PBSP is based on the recommendations made by the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission The Victorian government later released a policy in 2015 called "Safer Together: A new approach to reducing the risk of bushfire in Victoria (Safer Together)", which paved the way for releasing a new bushfire prevention strategy In order to improve bushfire preparedness across private and public lands, Safer Together brings together responsible agencies to educate the public about bushfires and reduce their risks (Victoria Auditor-General, 2020)

Accordingly, the Victorian Planning Provisions were amended in 2017 to provide better tools for planners to identify, assess, and manage bushfire hazards In the past, DELWP mapped the high-bushfire-risk areas of Victoria into two classes- bushfire-prone areas (BPAs), which cover much of regional Victoria, and bushfire management overlays (BMOs), which cover the most vulnerable areas A building permit must also apply for a planning permit when building in an area with a BMO (Victoria Auditor-General, 2020) In addition, new buildings and extensions in high-risk areas are required to adhere to these requirements to ensure bushfire protection In response to these changes, the land-use planning system has now provided a consistent approach across the State to managing bushfire risk In contrast, planning and building controls, such as BPA and BMO requirements, are only applicable to new developments or extensions to existing properties (noting that if an extension exceeds 50 per cent of a building's volume, the remainder of the building must also be upgraded to comply with current regulations) Consequently, there are no updates to the controls intended to reduce

bushfire risk on properties that predate contemporary bushfire planning and building standards (Victoria Auditor-General, 2020)

With the DELWP's bushfire prone areas (BPA) and bushfire management overlay (BMO) maps, councils can now assess bushfire risk uniformly and make informed decisions regarding land-use planning The DELWP bases its BPA and BMO mapping on the density of the vegetation in the area and its proximity to continuous vegetation BPA and BMO hazard mapping criteria have been developed using Australian Standard 3959:2009 vegetation types, stakeholder consultations, and scientific information In addition to these criteria, properties near-continuous vegetation may be at risk from ember attack if located near the buffer zone Therefore, following expert advice and recommendations from the Victorian Royal Commission, the ember protection buffer was increased in 2012 (Victoria Auditor-General, 2020)

2.2.2 Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment

Many scholars believe that vulnerability is the most critical factor affecting climate change's effects on cities (Hardoy & Romero Lankao, 2011; Hunt & Watkiss, 2011) Climate change already poses a danger to nearly all cities across the globe, according to climatic events reported worldwide (Macarthy 2012) Thus, global climatic events in cities, particularly severe ones, illustrate how incredibly vulnerable infrastructures, urban economies, and populations have become over time From the early 1960s to the 1980s, vulnerability emerged from the dominant approaches to natural disasters that examined natural hazards as disaster triggers (Schilderman et al., 2004) However, several other fields have used this concept to express different scholarly positions through the years

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Adaptive capacity, exposure, and sensitivity to climate change can be considered as components of vulnerability to climate change (Preston et al., 2008) In this context, exposure can refer to where a system is exposed to stimuli that act on it This is understood as climate variability and changes in the climate system, which are typical of concern to stakeholders due

to a rise in temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns (including extremes), and an increase in tropical cyclone intensity The vulnerability of a community or system to hazards may be determined by natural climate variability, independent of future climate change However, it is thought likely that future climate change will alter the characteristics of those hazards, resulting

in a potential increase in future exposure Sensitivity refers to the ability of a system to react to climate hazards The concept of dose-response can then be represented conceptually: the more sensitive a system, the greater its response rate or magnitude to a specific hazard It is often not

as important as the nature of the response to know how it is achieved Sensitivity can vary considerably across systems, industries, and populations

The ability of a system to change so that it may be better equipped to manage its exposure to climate change shall be referred to as its adaptive capacity The concept of adaptive capacity has been argued to be a complex concept that is difficult to define directly within vulnerability assessments (Adger and Vincent, 2005) Human, technological, and financial capital are considered core capacity components (Nelson et al., 2007 and Preston et al., 2008) Nonetheless, the institutional and governance structures available to deploy those resources are also crucial to success, and multiple socio-political barriers may impede success (Urwin and Jordan, 2008) Due to this, "contextual vulnerabilities, challenges associated with validating indicators, and considerations of timescale, contribute to a difficult development of indicators that are robust" (Vincent, 2007) Still, there is a reasonably well-defined list of community

characteristics that affect or 'condition' adaptive capacity, according to parallel studies in regional development (Bellamy et al., 2005)

Methods traditionally view the first two determinants of vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) as indicators of existing vulnerability (or very high potential vulnerability), thus

indicating potential vulnerability Meanwhile, the third determinant (adaptive capacity)

describes how well the system can reduce its overall vulnerability Therefore, planning responses to climate change impacts in cities begins with assessing the vulnerability of systems The effort is at the forefront of finding out which regions, people, and communities are most vulnerable to climate change, as well as the reason they are so susceptible (Kelly and Adger, 2000) Additionally, it is essential to provide guidance and specific recommendations for the associated impacts (Kaiser, 2007) However, it is inconceivable that there is one right vulnerability assessment approach, according to N*ss et al (2006) Hence, cities have various options for assessing their vulnerability to the different impacts associated with climate change (Macarthy, 2012)

2.2.3 Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions through land-use planning

Climate change mitigation is widely understood as mitigating greenhouse gas

emissions, primarily CO2 emissions, or promoting the sinking of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2007) Strategies for mitigating climate change include reducing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere to prevent harm to the environment and humans due to climate change (Guyadeen, 2017) Activities that reduce carbon dioxide include but are not limited to promoting public transport, improving energy efficiency, investing in infrastructure, and utilizing renewable energy sources (Laukkonen et al., 2009) Currently, mitigation strategies for climate change aim to primarily target five sectors with high levels of greenhouse gas emissions The five are transport, industry, energy supply, waste management, and buildings (McDowell, 2013)

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Many scholars argue that mitigating climate change is a global concern, and as such, it should have a global responsibility From their arguments, they concluded that electricity generation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Therefore, national governments should develop policies at the national levels to ensure that these industries are regulated responsibly, reducing GHG emissions significantly (Ayers & Huq, 2009; Lim et al., 2005) However, a growing body of research analyses the relationship between urban patterns, characteristics, and carbon emissions Researchers found that changing urban development patterns could significantly reduce cities' carbon dioxide emissions (Säynäjoki et al., 2018) Furthermore, by improving the structural characteristics of cities, environmental impacts will

be reduced from urbanization (Bourdic and Salat, 2012; Säynäjoki et al., 2018) Therefore, increasing urban density, improving buildings' energy efficiency, and improving public transport systems are essential for urban sustainability (Glaeser & Kahn, 2010; Säynäjoki et al., 2014) In addition, due to improved public transportation systems, people can travel short distances without using their vehicles (Kennedy et al., 2009)

The existing empirical research has confirmed that urban form - which consists of land use patterns and transportation infrastructure layouts (Marshall, 2008) - plays a significant role

in urban greenhouse gas emissions, especially in the residential and transportation sectors In addition, Navamuel et al (2018), find that Spanish urban households consume significantly less electricity than small municipalities and rural households, and findings that residential energy consumption increases from urban to suburban to rural settings (Belạd, 2016) Both a sample of U.S and global cities show a close relationship between compact urban form and low gasoline consumption (Leibowicz, 2020) Compact urban form efficiently reduces the emissions of greenhouse gases in another way: it makes public transportation more viable (Kennedy et al., 2009b) (Lohrey & Creutzig, 2016) By increasing community density, altering