Thffc te cho thay, nhffng nen kinh te cd sff khdi dau an tffpng td'c dp t a n g trffdng kinh te, gia t a n g cua san xuat cdng nghiep cao; ddi sd'ng cua dan cff dffge cai thien, xa hgi v
Trang 1XAY DONG M O HlNH P H A T T R I ^ N KINH T £ VI$T NAM
TRONG T H O I KY O £ N 2020
B u i T a t T h a n g *
Trong sd 34(7/2010), Tap chi da gidi
thieu cdc plidn: I Bdi canh; 2 Yeu cdu
phdt trien nhanh han vd ben vdng han
nen kinh te Viet Nam Trong sd ndy, mdi
cdc ban don xem phdn tiep theo
3 P h a t t r i e n vdfi h i f u s u a t c a o
Mud'n phat trien phai cd ngudn Iffc
Ngudn Iffc cd the tff cd (dat dai, tai
nguyen, con ngffdi, vd'n lie'ng), vay mffpn
tff ben ngoai, do ngffdi nffdc ngoai mang
den lam an d nffdc ta Trong kinh te hpc,
ngudn Iffc thffdng, khan hiem, hffu b a n
Vi vay, sff dung ngudn Iffc de p h a t trien
phai dam bao sao cho cd hieu suat cao
nhat, mdi dan vi gi*i tri sff dung d dau ra
cua san pham can tieu ton it n h a t cac
ngudn Iffc d dau vao de tao ra nd
Thffc te cho thay, nhffng nen kinh te
cd sff khdi dau an tffpng (td'c dp t a n g
trffdng kinh te, gia t a n g cua san xuat
cdng nghiep cao; ddi sd'ng cua dan cff dffge
cai thien, xa hgi va chinh tri dn dinh ),
nhffng thdi gian duy tri lai khdng dffge
bao lau Sau mdt thdi gian ngan ngui, nen
kinh te td ra "hut hoi", "mat da", tdc dp
tang trffdng cham dan, t h a m chi chuyen
sang suy thoai va rai vao t r a n g t h a i thieu
nang Dd la tinh t r a n g p h a t trien khdng
hieu qua va khdng ben vffng Mdt trong
nhffng diem cdt ldi cua t r a n g hud'ng nay
la nen kinh te da t a n g trudng khdng phai
dffa t r e n t a n g n a n g suat
P h a t trien va p h a t trien cd hieu suat
la hai k h a i niem khac nhau Neu lgi tffc
qudc dan hoac tdng san pham trong nffdc
(GDP) tinh t r e n dau ngffdi tang h e n tuc
trong mdt thdi gian tffOng dd'i dai va trong qua trinh p h a t trien, cd sff chuyen dich CP cau dang ke thi cd the coi dd la mpt nen kinh te p h a t trien Trong qua trinh nay, tff ban dffpc tich luy, dat dai, tai nguyen dffpc khai k h a n dffa vao sff dung va lao dpng dffpc ddng vien ngay cang nhieu vao cac linh vffc san xuat Ngoai ra, cac yeu to' san xuat cung dffpc
di chuyen tff cac nganh cd n a n g suat t h a p nhff ndng nghiep, sang cac n g a n h cd n a n g suat cao hpn nhff cdng nghiep, dich vu, tao sff chuyen dich ca cau GDP va cac m a t khac cua nen kinh te
Hien tffpng va sff phat trien nay la qua trinh GDP hoac san Iffgng (output) tang len nhd dgng vien ngay cang nhieu cac yeu to' san xuat (input) Tuy nhien, neu ngi dung phat trien chi cd vay thi chffa the ggi
la mot nen kinh te phat trien cd hieu suat Nen kinh te dffge xem la phat trien cd hieu suat khi do gia tang cua nd nhieu ban
la tdng phan tang dau vao, tffc cac yeu to' san xuat P h a n nhieu ban dd cd dffge do ap dung ngay cang nhieu tien bp khoa hgc cdng nghe, tri thffc quan ly kinh doanh, tff ban va tai nguyen dung cd hieu suat han
va trinh dp lao ddng ngay cang cao ban nhd day manh giao due va dao tao Trong phffong p h a p t i n h toan t a n g trffdng (growth accounting) phan cdn lai nay dffpc gpi la nang suat tdng hpp cua t a t ca cac yeu td san xuat (Total Factor Productivity
TFP)" (Trdn Vdn Thg 1997)
Bui Tat Thang, Pho giao su, Tie'n si, Vien Chien lifoc Phat trien
Trang 2troi NGHIEN CUU - TRAO 001 XAY DUNG MO HiNH PHAT TRI^N KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY OEN 2020
Van dd hieu suat khdng chi la yeu cau
mang tinh kinh te ma cdn la van de thudc
ban chat cua phat trien ben vffng (md'i
quan he giffa phat trien kinh te va con
ngffdi vdi cac ngudn tai nguyen va mdi
trffdng thien nhien) Nhin lai sff phat
trien cua the ky XX, ngffdi ta n h a n thay,
ben canh nhffng t h a n h tffu tuyet vdi ve
tien bg khoa hgc cdng nghe, ve phat trien
sffe san xuat va cua cai, loai ngffdi da phai
ddi mat vdi mot hien thffc khac nghiet:
dan sd bung nd, ngudn tai nguyen can
kiet, mdi trffdng tdi te di nhanh chdng
Hoat dpng con ngffdi da pha hoai nghiem
trpng CO sd sinh tdn va phat trien cua
chinh minh, tien dd tdt dep r a t cd the bi
pha buy trong mpt sdm mdt chieu Trong
sff suy xet sau sac ve nguy cO sd'ng cdn cua
loai ngffdi, tff tffdng chien Iffpe phat trien
ben vffng da ra ddi (He Yongping , Feng
Pengzhi, 1998, tr 10) Nhan loai neu cff
tie'n trien vdi mffc tieu hao nhff hien nay,
trong mpt thdi gian khdng lau, cac ngudn
tai nguyen tren trai dat se hoan toan can
kiet Theo nhieu nghien cffu, trong sd cac
ngudn tai nguyen khoang vat, sat chi cd
the duy tri khoang 173 nam, than ehffng
150 nam, nhdm dffpc 55 nam, ddng dffpc
48 nam, vang 29 nam Ddi vdi tai nguyen
sinh vat, rffng ram 170 nam nffa se bi ddn
bet Dang quan ngai la, rffng mffa nhiet
ddi cd the se het nhSn sau 40 nam Dgng
vat vdi so' Iffgng hang t r a m nghin loai
dang nhanh chdng bi tuyet diet Do chiem
dung dat de lam nha d, dffdng sa, nha
xffdng, cdng them sff de doa cua sa mac
hoa, chua man hoa, xdi mdn do gid mffa,
dat canh tac dang giam di tffng nam
Tieng chudng canh bao tai nguyen tff
nhien can kiet da ddng; day lai la mdt van
de cd tinh toan cau vd cung nghiem trgng
va gay can trong phat trien ben vffng
4 P h a t t r i e n vi c o n ngt^dfi
Tff tffdng p h a t t r i e n vi con ngffdi da trd
t h a n h quan niem pho bien cua the gidi
dffang dai Dffdi nggn cd cua td chffc p h a t
^ QUAN LY KINH TE
trien cua Lien Hgp Qudc (UNDP), tff n a m
1990, to chffc nay da cho xuat b a n deu
dan hang n a m Bdo cao phdt trien con
ngudi vdi y tffdng trung t a m , lay con
ngffdi la muc tieu cua p h a t t r i e n kinh te vdi each nhin md rdng ban ve nhieu mat trong ddi sd'ng xa hpi
P h a t trien con ngffdi la muc tieu cudi cung cua phat trien kinh te Vdi tff each la muc tieu chff khdng phai la mdt phffong tien, phat trien con ngffdi nham lam giau cho cude sd'ng con ngffdi Sff giau cd ve vat chat (tao ra khdi Iffpng hang hoa va dich
vu ldn han) cd the gdp phan thffc hien dieu nay, nhffng khdng b a n la da phat trien con ngffdi Thffc te cho thay, khdng tdn tai mdi lien he 1/1 giffa sff giau cd ve vat chat (tinh bang GDP binh quan dau ngffdi) vdi sff giau cd ve tinh t h a n (tinh bang chi sd phat trien con ngffdi) Do vay, quan diem san pham qud'c gia ve phat trien con ngffdi can dffge coi nhff la chi tieu dau tien cua trinh dp phat trien
Xet cho cung, van de ca ban la kha
n a n g cua con ngffdi de cd dffge tudi thg ngay cang cao (do b a n g tudi thg ky vgng trung binh) va mgt sffe khoe tdt (do bang
ty le tff vong), cd du dieu kien hgc tap va hieu biet tri thffc (do bang ty le tre em den trffdng va ty le biet dgc biet viet), cd dii thu n h a p de mua IffOng thffc, quan ao, nha d va t h a m gia vao cac quyet dinh cd
a n h hffdng trffc tiep den cude sdng cua hg
va cua cdng ddng v.v " (NXB Chinh tri
Quoc gia, Hd Ngi 1999; tr 48-49)
Rd r a n g la p h a t trien kinh te giff vai trd phffong tien de dat tdi muc tieu phat trien con ngffdi; bao gdm cac mat: phuc lgi vat chat day du ban, sffe khoe tdt ban, tudi thg cao ban va dffge hgc h a n h de
n a n g cao tri tue va ddi sd'ng t i n h t h a n Di
xa ban nffa, phat trien con ngudi cdn dffge quan niem la qua trinh md rgng cac Iffa chpn, tffc la qua trinh n a n e cao n a n g lire
va md rdng cP hpi cua ffa chpn " Sff phat trien cd the dffpr i la mdt qua
$635(8+9/2010)
Trang 3XAYDl/NG Md HlNH PHAT TRIEN KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY DEN 2020 NGHIEN CQU - TRAO 001 [ ^ I H
trinh md rdng cac quyen tff do thffc sff ma
ngffdi d a n dffpc hffdng Viec t a p trung vao
cac quyen tff do cua con ngffdi tffpng p h a n
vdi nhffng quan diem b a n h e p b a n ve sff
phat trien, chang b a n nhff dinh nghia
tang trffdng tdng s a n pham qud'c d a n
(GNP), hoac t a n g thu n h a p ca n h a n , hoac
cdng nghiep boa, hoac tien bp cdng nghe,
hoac la hien dai boa xa hpi T a t nhien,
tang trffdng GNP hoac thu n h a p ca n h a n
cd the cd y nghia b e t sffe quan trpng vdi
vai trd la phffPng tien de md rdng cac
quyen tff do ma cac t h a n h vien ciia xa hpi
dffpc hffdng." (Amartya Sen 2002; tr 13)
Trong dieu kien ddi ngheo tdn tai, tinh
trang ngheo ddi dffge giam thieu va nhffng
ngffdi vi nhffng ly do khac nhau t a m thdi
bi ddi ngheo, khdng bi xa hgi bd roi do la
bieu hien cdng bang xa hgi hay sff phat
trien ben vffng ve m a t xa hgi Nha kinh
te hgc cd dien Adam Smith (1776) da tffng
ndi: "Khdng cd xa hgi nao cd the chae
chan hffng thinh va cd h a n h phuc khi
phan ldn ngffdi dan phai sd'ng trong canh
ngheo ddi va khd cffc" (Michael P.Todaro
1998, tr.l87.) Td chffc Oxfarm cho rang:
"Ndi t h i n g ra, tinh trang ngheo khd t r a n
lan khdng chi ndi len mdt n e n kinh te vd
cung kem hieu Iffc ma cdn la mot sff vi
pham cac quyen co b a n " (Oxfam
International /1997, tr 16.)
Bao cao P h a t trien con ngffdi n a m
1996 cua UNDP da canh bao ve cac dang
thffc tang trffdng khdng vi con ngffdi, dd
la nhffng hien tffgng tdng trUdng khong
viec Idm, khong luang tdm, khong tieng
noi, khong gdc r§, khong tuang lai
- Tdng trudng khong viec Idm (Jobless
growth-where): la t a n g trffdng nhffng ca
hgi viec l a m khdng dffge md rdng Trong
luc kinh te t a n g trffdng, tinh t r a n g t h a t
nghiep v i n lan t r a n , h a n g t r a m trieu
ngffdi cd mffc thu n h a p r a t t h a p , n h a t la
d cac khu vffc ndng nghiep va dich vu phi
chinh thffc
- Tdng trudng khong luang tdm
(Ruthless growth-where): t h a n h qua t a n g
trffdng kinh te chu yeu dem lai lgi ich eho ngffdi giau, trong luc h a n g trieu ngffdi ngheo v i n phai vat ldn vdi ddi khat UNDP tinh rang, tff n a m 1970 den 1985, GNP toan cau t a n g 40%, nhffng sd Iffgng ngffdi ngheo cung da t a n g t h e m 17%
- Tdng trudng khong tieng noi
(Voiceless growth-where): la t a n g trffdng
khdng di cung md rgng d a n chu, quyen con ngffdi, binh dang gidi va k h a n a n g tiep can vdi cac ngudn Iffc va dieu kien
p h a t trien
- Tdng trudng khong gdc ri (Rootless
growth-which): dd la t a n g trffdng khdng
dam bao bao duy t r i va p h a t t r i e n t i n h da dang va dgc dao cua v a n hda Cac n h a van hda ffdc tinh, t r a i dat cd tdi 10.000 dang van hda khac nhau, nhffng nhieu nen van hda trong so' n a y dang cd nguy cP mai mdt, t h a m chi hi v a n minh cdng nghiep quet bd
Sau cung tdng trUdng khong tuang lai
(Futureless growth-where): la t a n g trffdng
kinh te phung phi nhffng ngudn Iffc hien tai, chang de lai gi cho cac t h e he tffong lai Day la tinh t r a n g k h a phd bien d nhffng n e n kinh te dffa vao khai t h a c qua mffc cac ngudn t a i nguyen, gay d nhiem mdi trffdng, cac ddng sdng, ngudn nffdc, buy hoai rffng va canh quan
Nhffng kieu p h a t t r i e n t r e n day khdng chi lam t r a m trgng t h e m tinh t r a n g b a t binh dang, ma cdn khdng duy t r i dffpc
tinh b e n vffng trong p h a t t r i e n (Xem:
UNBP: Human Bevelopment Report 1996 New York, Oxford University Press 1996)
Tff cac khia canh tff nhien, xa hpi va ca che neu ra, cd t h e khai quat lai la: "Chien Iffpc phat trien b e n vffng la sff hpi tu va
t h a n g hoa cua mpi tff tffdng td't dep dffpc lffu truyen h e t ddi ng sang ddi kia trong
n h a n t h e Chien luge nay, ngoai nguyen
tac chu dao ve tinh bin vdng
(sustainabil-$635(8+9/2010)
Trang 4MB NGHIEN aim - TRAO 001 XAY DI/NG MO HiNH PHAT TRI^N KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THOI KY OEN 2020
ity), cdn bao gdm 3 nguyen tac ve tinh
cong bdng (fairness), nd vffa ddi hdi sff
cdng bang cho ngffdi the he nay, vffa ddi
hdi sff cdng bang cho cac the he sau; tinh
hdi hod (harmony), mot m a t la sff hai hoa
giffa con ngffdi va gidi tff nhien, m a t khac
la sff hai hoa (hoa muc) giffa ngffdi va
ngffdi; tinh cgng dong (common), nd n h a n
manh tinh chinh the cua dia cau va tinh
phu thudc lan nhau cua loai ngffdi, mudn
thffc hien muc tieu chung cua sff p h a t
trien ben vffng, can ap dung h a n h ddng
lien hgp chung toan ciu" (Shu Yongqin
2002 tr.6)
Tdm lai, p h a t t r i e n ben vffng la sff
phat trien mang tinh tdng hgp vdi muc
tieu rd rang la vi con ngffdi, khdng chi la
sff md rdng ca hgi Iffa chpn cho the he
hdm nay ma cdn khdng dffpc lam tdn hai
den nhffng cP hdi Iffa chpn ciia cac the he
mai sau Sff ben vffng cua phat trien dffpc
the hien ca d khia canh kinh te, xa hgi
va mdi trffdng Dd la qua trinh gia t a n g
phuc lgi cho cac the he con ngffdi bang
each gia t a n g tai san, bao gdm tai san v a t
chat, tai san tai chinh, tai san con ngffdi,
tai san mdi trffdng (nffdc sach, khdng khi
sach, bai ca, rffng cay, dat dai ) va tai
san xa hgi (sff tin cay lan nhau, kha n a n g
lien ket, sff dam bao an ninh cho ngffdi va
tai san )
5 Mof cvta, h p i n h a p d e p h a t t r i e n
Thffc t i i n lich sff chffa tffng cd vi du
nao ve phat trien bang con dffdng biet
lap vdi phan cdn lai cua the gidi Trffde
day, nhffng nffdc di tien phong t r e n con
dffdng CNH di ra the gidi bang bp m a t
cua chu nghla thffc dan (xam chiem thugc
dia, va vet tai nguyen, md rgng thi
trffdng, cffOng vffc ) Ngay nay, nhffng
nffdc di sau khdng the (va cang khdng cd
ca hdi) lap lai con dffdng lich sff day mau
Iffa ay Nhffng hp cd each hpc hdi kinh
nghiem va du nhap dffpc cac ngudn Iffc
p h a t trien ve vd'n, cdng nghe - ky thuat,
| ] 3 QUAN LY KINH TE
tri thffc quan ly, n h a n Iffc de rut n g a n khoang each thdi gian so vdi cac nffdc CNH CO dien trffde day nhd "Ipi the cua ngffdi di sau", do nhffng dac diem mang tinh thdi dai la xu the t a n g n h a n h tien
t r i n h toan cau boa vdi nhffng bieu hien mdi ve chat mang lai
Bat chap nhffng khd k h a n , sff ehd'ng dd'i cua mdt so' nhdm xa hgi vdi cac loai chinh kien va quyen lgi khac nhau; vdi tff each la mpt xu the t a t yeu khach quan, tien trinh toan cau hoa tie'p tuc gia t a n g
t r e n k h a p mgi phffdng dien va dang cd xu hffdng chi phdi qua trinh van dpng chung cua kinh te the gidi Dffpc sff hd trg cua each m a n g khoa hgc cdng nghe, dac biet
la sff p h a t t r i e n vffgt bac trong linh vffc dien tff, cdng nghe thdng tin, t h a n g the cua cP che thi trffdng mang tinh toan cau
da tao ra sff thd'ng n h a t trong cP che xff
ly cac md'i quan he kinh te, trong dd cd hai dac diem dang lffu y, dd la:
Thff n h a t , sff lien ket chdc ndng san
xuat da gan ke't n e n kinh te toan cau, khien cho bien gidi kinh te qud'c gia ngay cang md n h a t Dieu nay lam cho cac chinh sach kinh te qud'c gia ngay cang phai tinh tdi sff phdi hpp vdi cac yeu to' ben ngoai khdng cdn mang sac t h a i biet lap nhff trffde Nhieu doanh nghiep qud'c gia gid day thffdng xuyen phai chiu sffe ep
canh t r a n h mang tinh toan cau, cugc
canh tranh vi the che da bdt ddu va the
che qud'c gia phai thich ffng nhieu ban vdi toan cau hoa
Hai la, trong dieu kien todn cdu hod
tdi chinh, quan he qud'c te chiu sff chi
phdi cua chinh sach tai chinh - tien te,
ma chinh sach nay lai khdng tach rdi khdi yeu td chinh tri Tren thffc te, toan cau hoa ngay nay d i i n ra ca dffdi hinh thffc dau t r a n h giffa cac nffdc vdi cac the Iffc tai chinh khac nhau Chinh vi vay, toan cau hoa tac dgng den cac nffdc khac
nhau mdt each khdng g nhau Viec tim ra phffong thffc he : Ac trong dau
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Trang 5XAY DUNG MO HiNH PHAT TRIEN KINH l i VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY D^N 2020 NGHIEN CUU - TRAO 001 [ j ^ ' i I \\
t r a n h de sao cho toan cau boa dat hieu
qua cao n h a t vdi mdi qudc gia da trd
t h a n h v a n de ehinh sach chu chd't
Dac diem ndi b a t cua toan cau hoa t a i
chinh la md ra ca hdi thu hut vdn dau tff
de day n h a n h qua trinh CNH-HDH d cac
nffdc dang p h a t trien Mffc dp thu h u t FDI
cua Trung Qud'c va t h a n h cdng t a n g
trffdng kinh te cua hp 20 n a m qua la mot
bang ehffng r a t thuyet phuc ve dieu nay
Tuy nhien, cuoc khung hoang kinh te - t a i
chinh chau A cudi t h a p nien 90 cua t h e
ky trffde va dac biet la cude khung hoang
tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te t h e gidi
mdi dien ra da canh bao ve nhffng rui ro
cd the xay r a do toan cau hoa t a i chinh
mang lai Vi vay, khdng vi rui ro ma dffng
ngoai ddng chay toan cau boa t a i chinh
ma can t a n g cffdng cac bien phap phdng
ngffa rui ro vdi hai npi dung chu chd't
dffge rut r a tff chinh kinh nghiem k h i c
phuc hau qua ciia khung hoang kinh te
-tai chinh chau A, dd la minh bach hoa
cac boat ddng t a i chinh, t a n g cffdng h a n h
ddng t a p the d khu vffc va t h e gidi trong
viec phdi hpp chinh sach p h a t trien kinh
te Dieu nay ngu y, an toan n a m d chinh
ngay sff hgp tac Khi bien n e n kinh te
qud'c gia t h a n h mot phan cua kinh te t h e
gidi thi neu xay r a "sff cd", mot h a n h
dpng t a p the chdng lai sff b a t dn phai trd
t h a n h bat bugc
Ve phffPng dien lao dgng, neu nhff trffde
day, cac ludng di cff thffdng g i n vdi nhffng
bien dgng ldn ve kinh te the gidi, thi
trong toan cau hoa ngay nay, cac ddng di
chuyen lao ddng qudc te lai d i l n r a thffdng
xuyen vdi qui md ldn Theo Ngan h a n g
The gidi, vao dau the ky XXI se cd khoang
130 trieu ngffdi sdng d ben ngoai nffdc
minh sinh ra So' lieu phan tich cho thay,
neu n a m 1975 cd 2,5 trieu ngffdi vffgt bien
gidi qud'c gia thi den n a m 1995 con sd nay
da cd tdi 23 trieu ngffdi Ngoai ra, cdn cd
t r e n 20 trieu ngffdi di chuyen den nai d
mdi trong ngi bd cua cac qudc gia
Cung nhff toan ciu hoa t a i chinh, sff gia t a n g td'c dp va quy md di chuyen ddng
n h a n Iffc da dem lai nhieu cP hdi cho cac nffdc dang cdng nghiep hoa Dd'i vdi linh vffc thffPng m a i h a n g hoa va dich vu, giai doan toan ciu hoa ngay nay khdng chi ehffng kien sff gia t a n g h a n trffde ma cac hinh thffc thffong mai g i n vdi cdng nghe thdng tin nhff thffOng m a i dien tff da r a ddi va p h a t trien r a t n h a n h chdng Nhff vay la, trong bdi canh toan cau hoa t a i chinh ngay nay, chien Iffgc cdng nghiep hoa phai tinh tdi sff boat dgng cua m a n g Iffdi s a n xuat da qud'c gia, dffge hd trg bdi mang thdng tin Internet toan ciu (chudi gia tri toan ciu) Nghia la gid day c i n phai tham gia vao chudi gia t r i toan ciu
de thffc hien viec chuyen dich ca cau kinh
te cua mdi qud'c gia khi tien h a n h cdng nghiep hoa Dd chinh la cai mdi, ed sff khac biet dang ke vdi nhffng qua t r i n h cdng nghiep hoa trffde day, khi ma sff phan cdng lao dgng qud'c te didn r a chu yeu qua viec cung cap s a n p h a m chff chffa hoan toan la sff p h a n cdng lao ddng thdng qua chuyen mdn hoa chffc n a n g s a n xuat theo he thd'ng lien k e t m a n g toan ciu
Viec tim each tham gia vdo mang sdn
xuat todn cdu vd tim dugc chd ddng vdng chdc tren thi trUdng (cd trong nUdc ldn the gidi) co y nghia quyet dinh ddi vdi cong nghiep hod trong dieu kien hien nay Sff di chuyen n a y bao gdm hai bffdc
chu yeu: mdt la, tff chd d b e n ngoai m a n g
trd thdnh mdt khau cua mgng; va hai la
tff m a t khau cd gia tri gia t a n g t h a p
chuyen len (ndng cdp, upgrading) bg phan CO gid tri gia tdng cao hon, hoac tff
n a n g cap de cd gia t r i gia t a n g cao b a n ngay khi v i n d bd p h a n s i n cd Sff chuyen dich cff cau nhff vay vffa bao h a m each tiep can truyen t h d n g ve dich chuyen ca cau, lai vffa md rdng t a m tff duy do sff ddi hdi cua thffc t i i n Cach hinh dung dich chuyen ca cau kinh te cu
la cd gang di chuyen ngudn Iffc tff khu vffc
$635(8+9/2010)
Trang 6i l l ii l i i NGHIEN CIJ^ • TRAP 001 XAY DUNG MO HlNH PHAT TRI^N KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY DEN 2020
ndng nghiep truyen thdng (cd n a n g suat
thap) sang khu vffc cdng nghiep hien dai
(dai dien cho khu vffc cd n a n g suat cao)
Cach nghi nay vdn hoan toan hien nhien
trong thdi ky each m a n g cdng nghiep,
nhffng dang trd n e n khdng hoan toan
dung trong dieu kien mdi ngay nay Van
de la d chd, dffdi t a e dgng cua khoa hgc
cdng nghe hien dai, mot m a t t h e gidi
dang trong thdi ky chuyen ddi sang xa
hdi hau cdng nghiep, khu vffc nang suat
cao bay gid khdng chi la cdng nghiep ma
bao gdm ca khu vffc dich vu dffa t r e n cd
sd khoa hgc - cdng nghe hien dai, dang
chiem ty trgng cao n h a t trong nhffng n e n
kinh te thi trffdng p h a t trien M a t khac,
khu vffc ndng nghiep trffde day mac nhien
coi la khu vffc n a n g suat t h a p , do ap dung
tien bd khoa hpc - cdng nghe hien dai,
khdng it linh vffc da cd gia t r i gia t a n g
r a t cao va dieu quan trpng la khi gan k e t
vao chudi gia tri toan ciu, s a n xuat ndng
nghiep khdng chi cdn la ndi san xuat r a
cac san pham cd gia tri gia t a n g t h a p
Nhff vay la, cung vdi dich chuyen cd cau
nganh vi md (tff ndng nghiep sang cdng
nghiep va tff ndng nghiep va cdng nghiep
sang dich vu), Viet Nam cung nhff nhieu
nffdc dang cdng nghiep hoa ngay nay cdn
cd CO hdi thuc day chuyen dich cP cau
kinh te vi md (cap doanh nghiep) theo
hffdng hgi n h a p qud'c t e Qua trinh cdng
nghiep hoa cd cd may rut n g i n chinh la
nhd vao mdt p h a n quan trgng tff nhffng
chinh sach thuc day dich chuyen cjp cau
theo each tiep can nay
Nhffng nghien cffu ve cac cdng ty hien
dai cdn cho thay, nhffng n a m 1970 trd ve
trffde, cac cdng ty thffdng t a p trung nd Iffc
nghien cffu ddi mdi he thong sdn xuat
(innovation of production system) n h a m
giam chi phi d i u vao, t a n g khdi Iffgng
san xuat va khuyen khich tieu dung h a n g
loat Ngudn lgi nhuan thu dffge chu yeu
do giam chi phi s a n xuat va t a n g so ngffdi
tieu dung, n e t dae trffng cua t h i trffdng
ngffdi ban Nhffng tinh h i n h da ddi khac, tff sau t h a p ky 70; cac cdng ty h i e n dai
thu lgi nhuan chu yeu tff viec doi mdi sdn
pham (innovation of products) (chff khdng
phai tff ddi mdi he thdng s a n xuat), n h a m
n h a n mffc tieu dung hay gia t a n g tdc do tieu dung, la n e t dac trffng eua t h i trffdng
ngffdi mua Gia tdng toe do tieu dung gid
day khong con la cdch kinh doanh nda
md la mot triet ly kinh doanh mai Bang
each nay, ngffdi t a khdng c i n phai md rdng s a n xuat, t h a m chi cdn thu hep quy
md s a n xuat, nhffng lgi nhuan thu dffge van ldn ban Day la dieu mdi ve chat cua cac TNCs hien dai trong dieu kien toan cau hoa Hinh thffc td chffc cua cdng ty gid day da ddi khac De thu lgi nhuan, cac cdng ty khdng n h a t t h i e t phai cd he
thd'ng s a n xuat rieng cua minh Cdc
TNCs dang chuyen giao mgnh me he thdng sdn xuat ra ben ngodi, sang nhdng nUdc kem phdt trien han, trong khi lgi gidm bdt quy mo d cong ty me Toan ciu
hoa khien cho he thdng s a n xuat va phan phdi dffge chuyen r a b e n ngoai, trong khi cac TNCs chi t a p trung n i m giff he thd'ng tai chinh va b a n quyen, nhffng linh vffc dem lai ehffng 70% tdng lgi n h u a n cdng
ty tff toan bg chu trinh boat ddng kinh doanh Day thffc sff la mot co hdi ma toan ciu hoa dem lai cho cac nffdc cham phat trien de tiep n h a n he thdng s a n xuat va
p h a n phd'i tff eae TNCs khi tham gia vao qua t r i n h toan eiu hoa Sff b a t ddi xffng
ve p h a n chia lgi nhuan trong he thdng toan c i u k h i e n mot sd hgc gia phffdng Tay gpi la "sff phan biet chung tdc ve m a t kinh te", nhffng la mot thffc te hien hffu chffa cd he thd'ng td't hPn nao thay t h e
(Xin xem them: Bruno Amoroso: On Globalization - Capitalism in the 21st Century Roskilde, Benmark; 2001)
Tdm lai, yeu td qudc te cua qua t r i n h
p h a t trien khdng phai den nay mdi dffge neu ra nhff mot trong : ' ig nguyen t i e
CP ban Kinh nghiem 1 sff eua b a t ky
$635(8+9/2010)
Trang 7XAY DUNG MO HiNH PHAT TRIEN KINH j i VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY OEN 2020 NGHIEN ClJfU - TRAO 001 [ ^ i i
m d t nffdc C N H m u d n n a o cung deu g a n
vdi yeu to' qud'c t e vdi tff each la m p t d g n g
Iffc, m d t n g u d n Iffc p h a t t r i e n , m p t cai
dich (it r a la ve m a t cdng n g h e , ky t h u a t )
c i n hffdng t d i v a la m p t dieu k i e n q u a n
t r g n g cua C N H r u t n g a n Qua t r i n h C N H
cua V i e t N a m t r o n g t h d i ky cP c h e K H H
t a p t r u n g c u n g da tffng n h a n r a t m a n h
yeu t d t r p giffp tff b e n n g o a i Nhffng cd l e ,
t r o n g dieu k i e n m d i cua t o a n c i u h o a ,
t i n h c h a t k h a n t h i e t , s d n g cdn cua h d i
n h a p qud'c t e n h a m n a n g cao n a n g Iffc
c a n h t r a n h v a k h a n a n g t h i c h n g h i vdi
nhffng b i e n ddi m a u le cua t i n h h i n h k i n h
te qudc t e l a i d a t r a gay g i t b a n b a o gid
b e t Cho du b i e t trffde nhffng t h a c h thffc
se k h d n g n h d v a cd t h e cdn gia t a n g ,
nhffng ca h p i cho p h a t t r i e n c u n g n h i e u
va v a n de la k h d n g t h e k h d n g h d i n h a p
vdi k i n h t e qudc t e m a h y v p n g cd dffpc
t h a n h cdng Lich sff C N H t h e gidi d e n
nay k h d n g cho t h a y m d t vi du n a o nhff
vay Vi v a y , dfft k h o a t p h a i m d cffa, h p i
n h a p ; trffde h e t la c i n h a i h d a h d a cac ca
che c h i n h s a c h t h e o t h d n g le qudc t e de
cung p h a t t r i e n
Nhffng q u a n d i e m p h a t t r i e n n e u r a
dffa t r e n viec d a n h gia m d t e a c h t d n g
q u a t "kinh te Viet Nam dang ddng trude
mot khde ngogt" cua t i e n t r i n h p h a t t r i e n
sau 20 n a m ddi m d i v a m d cffa; de t i e p
tuc h a n h t r i n h c h i n h p h u c nhffng m u c
tieu p h a t t r i e n cao h a n , "can cd cai e a c h
t o a n d i e n de l a m t i e n de cho giai d p a n
p h a t t r i e n b e n vffng C a i e a c h t o a n d i e n
cd n g h i a la x a y dffng m p t h e thd'ng cp che
h o a n c h i n h h P n , quy md r d n g h p n v a phffc
t a p nhffng vffng c h a e so vdi giai d p a n
t a n g trffdng b a n d i u D a c b i e t , k h i k i n h
te h p i n h a p m a n h v a o t h i t r u d n g t h e gidi,
n h i e u v a n de phffc t a p p h a t s i n h ddi h d i
cd cp che hffu h i e u de t a n d u n g ca h p i m d i
v a de n g a n ngffa b a t dn d i n h " , nhff each
n d i cua R o d r i k (2007) dd la h e t h d n g ca
che c h a t Iffgng cao ( h i g h quality i n s t i t u
-t i o n s ) (Trdn Vdn Thg 2008)
$635(8+9/2010)
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
• Amartya Sen (2002), Phdt trien Id quyen tU
do, NXB Thdng ke Ha Noi
Angus Maddison (2001), The World
econo-my: Amillennial Perspective, (OECD 2001)
> Bruno Amoroso (2001), On Globalization
-Capitalism in the 21st Century, Roskilde,
Denmark
• Oxfam International (1997), Tdng trUang
vdi cong bdng, ChuOng trinh thao luan ve
chu de xoa doi giam ngheo t h a n g 9/1997
Michael P.Todaro (1998), Kinh te hgc cho
the gidi thii ba, Nxb Giao due Ha Noi
Mark Shousen (2007), The Big Three in
Economics M.E Sharpe, Armonk, New
York London, England 2007
• Phdt trien con ngudi - Tic quan niem den
chien luge vd hanh dgng, NXB Chinh tri
Quoc gia, Ha Npi, 1999
• Korea Nuclear Energy Foundation - KNEF,
2008
+ Harvard University - John F Kennedy School Government
-+ Chuong trinh chau A: Lua chon Thanh cong Bai hoc tff Dong A va Dong Nam A cho tuong lai cua Viet Nam - Mot khuon khd chinh sach phat trien kinh te - xa hoi cho Viet Nam trong giai doan 2011 - 2020
• Bui The Cudng, "Ky nguyen dan so' vang ii
Viet Nam: mot dai lugng trong bai toan phat trien?"
• Hoi thao "Chien luge p h a t trien kinh te-xa hoi cua Viet Nam trong bo'i canh hoi n h a p qudc te", Vien Chien lugc p h a t t r i e n Ha Noi, 24/6/2004
• Shu Yongqing (2002), "Xa hoi loai ngudi di
ve dau? Hdi cd va binh luan ve the ky XX", Vien Thong tin khoa hoc xa hoi, Sd TN
2002 - 76 & 77, Ha Noi 2002
Bui T a t Thang (2006), Chuyen dich ca cdu
nganh kinh te d Viet Nam, Nha xuat ban
Khoa hoc Xa hoi, Ha Noi
Tran Van Tho (1997), "Cong nghiep hoa Viet Nam trong thdi dai chau A - Thai Binh
Duong", Thdi bdo Kinh te Sdi Gdn, VAPEC,
1997
Tran Van Tho (2008), "Tff cai each tiem tie'n de'n xay dUng eo che chat lugng cao", Hoi thao Nha Trang, t h a n g 7/2008
QUAN LY KINH TE ^