se dUOc quan tam trong rat nhieu cac cong cu khac nhau, chang han trong Oanh gia Rui ro Xa hoi SRA, Oanh gia RUI ro KI thuat TRA, Ma Iran Ki thuat - Xa hoi STM va Odi cac Ben lien qu
Trang 12on
Phuong phap quan tri cac he thong dpng trong quan tri dU an
Phan tich tinh trang khong chac chan
DD Viet Cudng, Ban OLDA FSMIMS, SBV
Phan tich tinh trang khong c h k
chin (uncertainties) la mot
phiTcfng phap quan tri cac he
thong dong {DSM} trong quan tri
cac dtf an pht/c tap Phu'ong nay
nay gom cac cong cij sau: Cay
He thong Logic {L.S.T - Logical
Systems Tree), Oanh gia RiJi
ro Xa hoi (SRA - Social Risk
Assessment}, Danh gia Rui ro Ky
thuat (Technical Risk Assess
ment) va Ma tran T6ng hop
1 Cay He thong Logic a.S.T.]
Trong DSM, L.S.T chi'nh la quy dao cua du
an Mflt each dOn gian, L.S.T la bin thiet ke
qua trinh logic cua dU dn, xdc dmh cdc he
thdng con de di din thanh cong, Trong mfli
he con do, cln xac dmh dlu vao kT thuat, dlu
ra kT ttiuat va cac ben lien quan Dlu ra chinh
la muc tieu cua he thdng
Chiing ta quan tam den dlu vdo cua mflt he
cd sd: bao gflm ddu vdo kT thudt - nguyen
lieu va mdy mdc thiet bi, cac quy frinh; dlu
vao xd hfll - con ngudi, cac ben lien quan
Thong qua mdt qua trinh quan tn, dieu hanh,
thuc hien, thi he thdng se san smh ra ket
qua, la cac dlu ra Neu chi tiet hda cdc dieu
kien dlu vao, cd vai hoc gia quan tdm den
cong thdc 4M+I; Men (con ngudi) Machines
(may mflc, thiet bi) Materials (nguyen, nhien
vdt lieu) Money (vdn) Information (thflng tin)
Tuy nhien, cac dilu kien dlu vao cung cd the
chia thanh 3 nhdm co ban: vat chat (may
mflc, nguyen lieu), phi vat chat (thflng tin,
quy trinh, ban quyen) vd con ngUdi
IHinh 1 - Cac didu kien ban dlu kT thudt & xa
hdi, la vien gach cd s6 cua L.S.T Tif quan
sat Hinh 1, nhan thay rang mfli qud trinh
phUc tap dlu cd the chia tach thanh nhi^ig
qud trinh nho hon Ndi each khac, mot he
n CAC OIEU KIEN BAN BAU KI THUyJT & X«
HOI
I KET QUA mh he thong c
Z ^
• •
I QUA T R I N H QUAN TRI XS\
' oilu Klf N DAU VAO CUB he ttiong
• * l l - i.lllJll|ll 'JBHWi!t
thdng Idn (Level 1) cd thl phdn tich thanh cac he thdng con (Level 2) Cdc he thdng con dd cd quan he chat che vdi nhau, ddu ra cua he nay co the la dlu vao cua mflt hoac nhilti he l<hdc, Hinh 2 - L S T mo ta mot cay
he thdng logic don gian, bao gflm mflt sd cdc he thdng con lien quan vdi nhau, de cudi ciing d?t duoc muc tieu ciia mdt he thdng
Idn v l mat logic, mfli h% thdng con c6 the lai
duoc phan tich thanh cdc h^ thdng con cap thap hon
Trong mot sd tai lieu khdc, thudt ngi)' Logi-cal Framework (khung logic) dUflc dting cd
y nghTa tUOng tu nhu L.S.T dUOc de cdp trong DSM Cflng cu nay da trd thanh khudn phep tiong qua trinh quan tij duan, dUOc ap dung rflng rai trong pham vi cac du an do ADB tai tro, chuan mUc tai mdt sd nUdc nhu Australia
Triit Ii cua cmig cu
Cfl thl nfli rang, LS.T Id mot cflng cy chinh trong bfl cflng cu cija DSM Khi kit thiic mdt L.S.T., mpt bifc tianh toan canh ve du an se trd nen ro rang Mfli khi cd mdt he thdng la
"nguy hiem" hoac "do" dupc xdc dmh tren hirih ve, tfii chiing ta cln phai tap trung nhieu thdi gian d l chia nho nd thanh cdc he thdng con nhd hon de kiem soat duoc (ap dung
nguySn tac "chia de tn") Va ngUOc lai, cdc hfl thdng da kiem sodt duoc frong cung miln
du dn cung cd the duoc gpp lai tao ra he thdng 1 ^ hon Tuy nhien, viec nhdm cac he thdng duoc kiem soat phai thong qua each tilp cdn he thdng Nham mo ta chifc nang ciia tifng he, chiing ta co the tien hdnh theo hai cdch tiep can khac nhau: tu duy de-cac (theo bieu dfl, logic, giai tich, Ii tinh) vd tu duy
hd thdng (quan he, bien chUng, todn cue)
No bieu trung cua "ttlp can he thdng" hon la
"tilp can qua frinh"
Tit ca cdc he thdng trong cdy dlu vi muc dich cua "he thdng cudi ciing":
Day la mot mfl hinh cua "qua trinh kinh doanh"
Ngu^n tic cua cdng c{/
Mflt L:S.T vifa khdng phai Id Cau friic Phan hoach San xult (PBS) cung khdng la Clu frue Phdn hoach Nhiem vu (WBS), tuy nhien cfl mflt mdi quan he quan frgng giifa LS.T
va PBS, WBS dfl Id mdi quan h§ mang tinh nguyfen nhan - kit qua, va tinh logic ciia cac quan he, bdi vi viec xdy dung nen mdt L.S.T vifa mang tfnh logic ngang (di sdu tting chi tiet trong cac h^ thdng) vifa cfl tinh logic doc (chuIn bl cac dinh nghTa, xac dmh he thdng) Oieu kien ddu vdo khdng la "tiiu phdn" cua
W CHi TIN HQC NGAN HANG • 5 6 1(125) - 1 / 2 0 1 2 • 2 3
Trang 2' A • / / ; ::- " ^
dau ra, tUc chung dUOc phan chia vai t i i i l o
rang
Mot L.S.T duac xay di/n;; (!U;i Iren n^oii iijiU
"hon don"
Day la logic theo chieu unang (rlii liel lioa)
va logic theo chieu doc (lien li.inli rluk'in hi)
Sddung no the ndo?
L.S.T la mdt mang lUOi cac he cu quan liij
khang khit vdi nhau, nham den muc tieu cuoi
cung ciia dU an Trong thUc tien, inoi he
t h o n g CO the xay dUng tU mot so cac he
thong c o n vi vay L.S.T c o the la m o t m d
hinh ciia mdt quy trinh kmh doanh Khi quan
tam den Oanh gia Rui ro Ki thuat, no lam bdc
Id cang nhieu hon nhu cau nham giam thieu
rui ro hay giam muc dd cua cac sU co bat
ngd khdng chac chan
Chinh VI ll do do, cac he ttiong con de cap
trong L S T se dUOc quan tam trong rat
nhieu cac cong cu khac nhau, chang han
trong Oanh gia Rui ro Xa hoi (SRA), Oanh gia
RUI ro KI thuat (TRA), Ma Iran Ki thuat - Xa
hoi (STM) va Odi cac Ben lien quan (SZ) Viec
phan tich cac nhieu loan bang cdng cu L.S.T,
mot each tUnhien, cac dieu kien ban dau cua
cac he thdng con can nhi/ng ben hen quan
mdi Ngay lap tuc, rd rang la Chom sao cac
Ben lien quan se phai dUOc xem xet lai va
thay doi, cac ben lien quan cd rui ro Idn phai
dUdc xac dmh t u Ma tran Nguyen nhan No
cung lam phat smh c d n g cu Bieu dd Gantt
cac He thong khi thu duoc ket qua t i / viec ap
dung cdng cu L.S.T Tom lai, cdng cu L.S.T
d o n g vai t r d rait quan t r o n g trong bd cac
c d n g cu ciia DSM, viec tnen khai c d n g cu
nay phii hop se mang lai nhimg nguyen lieu
va dmh hudng doi vdi ap dung cac cong cu
khac sau nay SU dung c d n g cu L.S.T can
ILTU y:
• Di/ng dl qua sau chi tiet vao trong cac he
thdng
- Suy nghi toan cuc trudc - xac dinh cac dau
vao va dau ra chinh, quan trong
• Dam bao rang he thdng cuoi cung co lien
he, tUdng quan
- Lam rd mdi dau ra da phan tich, neu c^n
chia nho cac dau ra Mdi dau ra sau dd se
t r d thanh mdt he thdng
Lam cai gi vdi cong cu do?
L.S.T ia "roadmap" Id trinh cua d u a n , la ban
m d ta dau tien ve "vong ddi phifc tap ciia dU
Bang 1 - Bang cac lieu chi va Ihang diem trong TRA
31/ PHU THUOC Bin
NQOAl
1
10 KHANANGTACNGHEN
1
2
3 KHAnAHG06]U<i\
1
2
3
MJC dAchunft'i phulhu&cviobfinlibi quaangoii d J co diMc d i m ?
Chung ra khAng phu thuAc bin li^n quan ngoai
Chung (.1 hoan loan phu thu6c b^n h^n quart ngoai
NJuchiinsbiMiAngxoiyxAdlcodiM: diu n , thi chiing ra CO th^limgi!
Diu ra khing b| nghen vi chung ra co thfi lim ra each de' san xuat (bang each them cac di^ukifen ban diul
D^u ra dang hi nghen ba chiing la se thay t h l no (bing each th€m cac hi
thing mdi Oiu ra dangbi nghen Chung ta khing th^5afi»u3l
N J i c U i i ta CO cicdiAi lofa d l tliA, c i m g U CO d i n bio dUDcse thl
diMc ii% ra?
ChunR ta co tfl* \itt\ kt t)i»c cac diiu kiftn diu u i o c i n thijjt Chiing la khing Ih^ li^t k^ va ;e bm m6t con dubng n\a de di den thanh
c6ng Chung ta khong dam bao cac di^u k£n ban dju md diia den thanh cong
Bang 2 - Bang cac lieu chi va Ihang diem Irong SRA
M O C D O KHANG C i ;
1
2
3
HCFC O O BAT 6H
1
2
3
HIJfC Bj l A C O O N G
1
2
3
MLTCOO QUY^N Ll/C
1
2
3
B£n li£n quan cd quan t i m d^n d U a n nhuth^nao?
Quan tam tich cUc Mi/c quar lam tiJy thuoc bnh huong Quan tam lieu cUc
B£n li£n quan se thay dAi suy nghi?
Khong nhay ben khi bi lac dong
Co the rhay ben tiiy bnh huong Rat nhay ben khi bi t i c dortg
Chiing ta CD thJ tac dftngbfinli&iquMBbdvaora&qiaa kt s l i
CO?
Chiing ta cd the siJdung moi quan he tot de anh hutmg den ho Moi quan h§ la trung tmh (chiing ta co the dam phanll Chiing ta co moi quar h e x a u v a ho
Chiing ta CO t h l a p d i t g i dolfin b6n li&i quan nhdvao quyla liK ki^m scat ciia chiing ta
Chung ta kieiii soat duoc tot ben hen quan ithu'bac cua to chi/cl Chiing ta khong ki6m soat ro rang, nhutig co the tim ra each [hanh dong]
Chiirg ta khong bao giOkiSm soat du'oc ben hen quan na^
thuat xa hoi mdt each doc lap, va moi day 2 Danh gia RUi fO Xa llOi (SRA) va Danh gl hen k^t ma chung tao ra Ruj ro KI thuat (TRA)
L S T , la c h e c M i s t cua tat ca cac "van d ^ " Danh gia Rui ro Ki thuat (TRA) nh^m danh gi
^'^ • hoac "tinh h u d n g " tidm an cua d i / an hay riii ro cac he thdng (con), duoc xay dung dil L.S.T phii hop d ^ phan tich cac he thong ki chUOng trinh (he thdng) tren 3 tieu chi; su phu thudc ben ngoai, I'l'
Trang 3'm 20i2 ^
nang bi tac nghen, va kha nang ddi mdi, vdi
I k lifOt vdi thang diem la 1-10; 1-3, 1-3
Bang dudi day giup thuc hien viec cdng cu
SRA, va bieu dien nd 'dang each du'a vao mdt
ddthi,
Danh gia Riii ro Xa hdi ISRA) nham danh gia
cac ben lien quan trong tt/ng he thdng (con)
Oanh gia nay dua tren cac tieu chi phde hap
ddi udi mdi ben lien quan Theo Bang 2, cd
4 tieu chi dUdc siJ dung trong SRA gdm: muc
dd khang cu', mifc dd bM 6n, mifc bi lac
ddng va mifc do quyen luc, ddu sif dung
thang diem tif 1-3,
Triet Ii eua edngcij
Oanh gia la cac phan tich "chu quan va dmh
tmh" va du'a vao "phan xet ciJa con ngUdi",
Oanh gia he thong ddi hdi t^t ca Ddi dd an
phai dua ra quan di^m v l cac ben lien quan
va cac he thdng con,
Danh gia cac he thdng ddng k/c ludn dUa
tren nen tang cua ra quydt dmh quan tn va
hanh ddng quan tn nham muc dich rd rang
Nguyen t k cua cdng cu
Thao luan ve ben lien quan va he thdng, di
den SLf ddng thuan quan trong hon la dua ra
duoc "con sd chinh xac"
Mdi gia tn danh gia (1,2,3) c d y nghia quan
tri khac nhau, nd lam cho qua trinh danh gia
khdng han cd tinh true giac
Sudung nd thd nao'
Odi du an thue hien danh gta' bang each thao
luan
Chia se "hieu biet' va "tam nhin" ve cac ben
lien quan va ve cac he thdng
Khdng nen qua tap trung uao "danh gia diing
dan"
Cap nhat danh gia ngay khi tin tudng can
thiet [thay ddi Idn trong du an)
Lam cai gi vdi cdng cu do'
Cdng cu danh gia nay ed the dUde dung nhu
"bang ddng ho" tren cac phuong lien giao
thdng
Bang danh gia la Luat choi, cac anh xa la
Lanh tho, cac ben lien quan la Ngudi chdi,
cac he thdng la mdt Trd choi,
Cac bang bieu, dd thi la mdt "bang ddng hd"
van ddng dUdc chu^n bi va de theo ddi cac
hanh ddng quan tn
3 Ma Iran Ki thual - Xa hqi
Cdng cu Ma tran KT thuat - Xa hdi (STM)
du'de hinh thanh difa tren cac ma tran SRA ua
TRA bang each lap mdt bang chee cac mdi quan he gida cac ben lien quan va cac he thdng da xay ddng trong L.S.T, Cd rat nhieu mdi lien he giifa cac chieu kich ve xa hdi va
ki thuat, ua chung c l n phai du'oc do lu'dng, Lfde tinh Dd phife tap ciia td hap cua eae ben lien quan tae ddng den mdt he thdng se lam cho viec giai quyet van de cang khd khan hon, Tuy nhien, STM bi^u thi ket qua tdng hop nhlm de xult nhOng hanh ddng kha di trong tinh hudng bat ngd To hop ciia cac ben lien quan nguy hiem va cac he thdng nguy hidm ddi hdi phai cd nhifng hanh ddng
chuan bi phdng ve \is trUdc Lien quan den van 6k nay, chiing ta c l n nhin manh ring
"dd phifc tap eo ngudn gde tU sd Idn cac eau tif tuang tac nhau khdng theo mdt each don gian", va dieu edt yeu la "sif tUdng tac gida cac c l u phln lam cho he thdng trd nen Idn hdn la phep tdng cdng dan thuan cua cac cau phan ciia nd."
Theo dd cdng cu nay, chiing ta cung sildung
ma mau ddi vdi cac ben lien quan va cae he thdng Luu y ring, mau ciia mdi d trong ma tran ehinh la mau ma chiing ta nhan dUOC sau qua trinh sif dung SRA va TRA ndi tren Hinh 6 la mdt bidu didn don gian ciia cdng eu STM(Ma tran Ki thuat-Xa hdi)
Triet Ii cua cdng cu
Mdi lien he gida cac khia canh ki thuat & xa hdl cua cac he thdng phai khdng bao gid du'oc danh gia thap
Si/ nguy hiem cua du an xuat phat tif td hop ciia cac he thdng nguy hiem va cac Odi Ben lien quan nguy hiem
To hop ciia nhieu Odi tac dong den ciing mdt
he thdng se difa den cdng viec cua ban tham chi cang khd khan han
Nguyen tic eua cong c(j
Sif "dan cheo" la cac ki hieu xac dmh sue tac ddng thu'c sU cua mdt ddi ben hen quan trong he thdng L.S.T
Tai ca eae he thdng trong L.S.T phai ddOc liet ke trong cac cot
Sd dijng nd the nao?
Sif dung cac ma mau bi^u thi eae ben lien quan & cac he thdng (tif phan tich riii ro ki thuat-xa hdi)
Dat ten cua cac Ddi ben hen quan trong cac (•) (cell)
Lam cai gi vdi cong cu do?
STM r l t dan gian ua rd rang: diing nd bdi kha nang ciia no rat tdng hdp va dua den cac hanh ddng cua ban
STM la mdt td hop tmh ui cua cae khia canh CLia vln de ve mat kT thuat va xa hdi STM la cdng cu rat manh de thd hien mifc
dd nguy hiem trong dif an
Viec ap dung cac cdng cu neu tren ddi hdi ngUdi quan tn cd nhilu kl nang va kmh nghiep thuc tiln Oac biel, qua trinh sif dung cdng cu SRA ddi hdi tinh tmh nhay, sif lam viec tap the va ddi khi sif dung ca nhiing phuang phap kha phi/c tap nhu phuong phap chuyen gia - Delphi d l danh gia khach quan, chinh xac trang nhifng dU an phde tap •
i ^ h liSn quan 3 1 Ben Ijgn quan 4 | jBpn lien quan 5 , j ; ^ | S j a | X High li@n quan 6 J j ^ ^ ^ H T6ng 1 »
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S3SSB9S
TAP CHl TIN HOC NGAM HAMG • SO 1(125) - 1/2012 • 2 5