Mdi lidn he gifta nhdn thftc vd cdm xuc cua chu the fren trudng qudc te dugc Robert Jervis xac djnh nhu sau: "Thdng thudng, khdng thi giai thich nhung quyet dinh vd chinh sdch quan frgng
Trang 1Pho b i l n vu khf hat nhan tCf goc nhin
cua chu nghTa k i l n tao
NGHIEM TUAN H C I N G *
Trong ly thuyit quan hi quoc le, viec sa hiru vU khi hat nhdn (VKHN) dugc cdc hgc gid phdn tich theo nhieu cdch tiip cdn khdc nhau Niu nhu chu nghia hiin thuc coi
Id bieu tugng cho tham vgng cita nhd nuac di tu bdo vi minh, phdn irng v&i nhitng bdt on ve an ninh vd tham vgng tu vi mpt cdch dpc lap, VKHN xudt phdt lit lgi ich quoc gia ciing nhitng sii-c ep tir he thong quoc te thi chu nghta kiin Igo (CNKT) lgi dua ra goc nhin khdc CNKT coi nhirng quyel dinh hgi nhdn xudt phdi tit nhdn thitc ciia giai linh hoa (elite), co chuc ndng mang tinh bieu lugng quan trgng, vira dinh hinh, vira phdn dnh bdn sdc cua nha nuac Theo goc nhin ndy, hdnh vi cua nhd nuac khong chi bi tdc dpng tir nhitng linh todn ve lgi ich cita cdc nhd ldnh dgo quoc gia
ma con bi dinh huang bai giai linh hoa, bai nhitng nguyen ldc vd niem lin chung cua cdc nhd ldnh dgo ve nhitng hdnh dpng dugc coi Id hap le vd thich ddng Irong quan
hi quoc te
Tu khoa: VU khi hgt nhdn, chit nghfa kien igo, quan he quoc te
I Nhihig lu^n diem kien tao ve van de
pho bien vu khi hat nhan
CNKT cho rdng vai tro cua giai linh hoa la
rdt quan trgng trong hogch dinh chinh sdch cua
nha nuac noi chung Cac nha xa hpi hgc vd
khoa hgc chinh tri da nghien cuu ve sy ndi len
vd tdm anh hudng cua cdc ca nhdn Irong nhiing
ITnh vye rieng biet, nhdn manh vao tam quan
trgng cua vai frd, hanh dpng va nghi Ihftc Cdc
ca nhan va td chuc cd the cd nhieu lgi ich
nhung nhimg Igi ich dd bi dinh hlnh bdi vai frd
xd hdi cua chu the cd nhdn, dugc thuc hien bdi
- Vifn Kinh te vk Chfnh trj the gidi
nhirng sd thich va hdnh dpng hay nhiing quydt dinh CO ly tri va dugc gdn vdi mdi trudng xa hpi
md thuc day nhung cau tnic va hanh vi dung ddn hay duy ly, ddng ihdi xem nhirng ngudi khdc la phi ly tri
Trong Irudng hgp kien tao chuang trinh hat nhan cung vay, viec xem xet vai frd cua gidi linh hoa cung cyc ky quan trgng Hon nfta, ban sac hay quy chuan qudc gia hodc bat eft quylt dinh nao cung bi dnh hudng bdi tam ly cua gidi linh hoa vd cdc nha lanh dao Cdm xuc vd ldm
ly cung nhu nidm lin thudng dugc kien tao mang tinh xa hpi vd tdn lai frong nhimg mdi quan he xa hpi; chung chu ydu ton tai gifta
NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHfNH TRj THt GICTI S6 10(234)
Trang 22015-nhftng gid tri, niem tin va khat vgng dugc ca xa
hpi chia se va kel ndi Cam xuc "thudng dugc
kien lao de phye vu cac chuc ndng vdn hda xd
hpi dd ngdn can nhiing thai dp vd hanh vi
dang che frach, de duy tri va tan ihdnh nhiing
gia fri vdn hda" Cdm xuc tac dpng manh den
nhan thftc ciia chft the ve muc dich va kha ndng
cua "ngudi khac" ddng thdi dinh hudng xem
lieu quan he gifta "ta" vdi "hg" nen gdn hay xa
Mdi lidn he gifta nhdn thftc vd cdm xuc cua
chu the fren trudng qudc te dugc Robert Jervis
xac djnh nhu sau: "Thdng thudng, khdng thi
giai thich nhung quyet dinh vd chinh sdch quan
frgng ma khdng tinh den niem tin va sy ky vgng
ve the gidi cua nhd hoach dinh chinh sdch eftng
vdi hinh dung cua hg v l ngudi khdc Dilu do
ndi rang, nhiing nhdn thuc nay la mpt phan cua
nguyen nhdn dan den hdnh vi cd lien quan va
cac cdp dp phan tich khdc nhau khdng the ngay
lap tuc ndi chung chung ta chung se nhu the
nao Va thdm chi neu chung ta thdy ai dd d cung
dia vi, cu xu cung mdt kidu cdch, se rdl cd Igi
de phan tich qud frinh hoach dinh chinh sdch
khi cd nhifrig khac biet giua quan niem cfta nhd
hoach dinh va thyc tien"'^ Nhu vdy, cd Ihl ndi
rdng quan diem kien tao xa hpi ve cara xuc rat
thich hgp de gidi Ihich nhiing khac biet cua cdc
nen vdn hda frong vai trd ma cara xuc thyc Ihi
ddi vdi chinh sach hat nhdn cua cdc nudc
Dua vdo quan diim vi vai tro ciia giai tinh
hoa, hgc gid Peter Lavoy dgt ra cdu hoi vi vai
tro, tdm ly ciia giai linh hoa vd phdt triin cdch
tiep can md ong ggi Id nguai kiin tgo huyin
thogi (myth-maker) nhu cdu trd lai cho vdn de
pho biin hgt nhdn Muc dich cua each tiep can
nay la nhdra giai ihich tai sao VKHN dugc pho
bidn radc cho nhimg van de bat dn vay quanh va
Ihdm hga cd the xay den Lavoy cho rdng frong
mpt qudc gia, gidi linh hoa, nhung ngudi mudn
phdi triin VKHN vi van d l an ninh, quyin luc hay bilu tugng, chinh la ngudi kiln tao huyin thoai Khdi niem "huyen thoai hat nhan"
(nuclear myth) la rdt quan frgng dft mang tinh
huyin thoai hon la thuc tl^ Cdch tilp can nay khd hiiu dyng, cd the giai thich vai frd ciia nhung cd nhan, tinh hoa cd anh hudng frong qud frinh xay dyng chuang frinh hat nhan Chdng han, Lavoy cho rdng vai trd cua Uy
ban Hat nhan An Dp {Indian Atomic Energy Commission) vd dac bidt la Chu tich Homi
Bhabha trong qua trinh kien tao huyen tho?i hat nhdn cua An Dp la khdng the phu nhan'* Trong tmdng hgp cua nudc Phap, vide phdt frien cac chuong Irinh hat nhan cung phan anh rdl rd vai frd va quan niem cfta gidi chuc ldnh dao nudc nay - nhiing ngudi kien lao huyen thoai Niem tin manh me cfta gidi chftc Phap khi cho rdng sue manh va VKHN gan lien vdi vi the cua dat nudc tren trudng qudc te dugc neu ra frong bdn
Ke hoach 5 ndm ma nudc Phdp dua ra vdi muc tieu "dam bao trong vdng 10 ndm nua nudc Phdp se trd Ihanh mpi nudc quan trgng" Ddi vdi cyu tdng thdng Charles de Gaulle, bom hat nhan la rapt bilu tugng rd rang cho sy dpc lap cua nudc Phdp vd la cdi can thiet de nudc Phdp liep lyc dugc thfta nhan la mdt cudng qudc trong mat chinh hg va ngudi khdc khi vilt rdng:
"Mdt nudc Phdp rad khdng cd Irach nhidm ddi vdi the gidi se la khdng xftng dang vdi ban than, dac biet la trong con mdt ngudi Phdp Dd chinh la ly do nudc Phdp phdn ddi NATO [ ]
Dd la ly do nudc Phap mudn chung td minh vdi
vu frang hat nhan Chi cd each nay thi nin qudc phdng va chinh sach ddi ngoai cua chiing ta mdi ddc Idp"^
' Crawford, Neta C (2000): Tlie Passion of World Politics:
Propositions on Emotions and Emotional Relationships,
International Security, No 24, Vol 4, p 129
^ Jervis, Robert (1976): Perception and Misperception in
International Politics Princeton, Princeton University
Press, p 28-29
^ Lavoy, Peter R (1993): Nuclear Myths and the Causes
of Nuclear Proliferation, Security Studies, Vol 2,
Spring/Summer, p 200
* Lavoy, Peter R (1993): da ddn, p 202
^ Goldschmidt, Tlie Atomic Complex, p 126
* Tham khao them Charles de Gaulle (1971): Memoirs of
Hope: Renewal and Endeavor, Simon and Schuster,
New York, p.209 Sau nam 1958, cupe khiing hoang a Angeria da t^c dong Ion den n6i dm Snh hat nhSn ciia
Charles de Gaulle vdi tham vong \k sir dpc ISp v4 vT dai
Trang 3Kho hat nhan cua nudc Phdp trudc hit dugc
coi cd chftc ndng mang tinh bieu tuang Nhftng
tuyen bd cua de Gaulle rdng vu khi hat nhan ciia
nudc Phap cd kha nang friln khai loan cdu vd
nhdm vao ragi hudng dugc nhin nhan khdng
phai la san phdm cua nhihig de dga v l an ninh
den tft mgi hudng ma nhu chinh sdch kien tri vi
su dpc lap va vT dai cua nudc Phap Tuong tu
nhu vdy, hgc thuyet chien lugc cua nudc Phap
ve mdt sy ngdn chan luang ftng ddnh cho Lien
Xd Irong Ihdi ky chidn tranh Lanh cung khdng
cd nhieu gid frj thyc su Ndi each khac Lien Xd
khdng phai la muc tieu md kho hat nhan cua
nudc Phap hudng tdi Cudi cung, khi ngudi
Phdp mien cudng dimg thu hat nhdn tft giua
nhftng ndm 1990, didu dd khdng chi dugc coi
nhu nhiing lo ngai ve hien dai hda quan sy vd
an toan hat nhan md cdn bdi nhung vy thu dugc
Paris coi nhu la bieu tudng cua ban sdc va vi the
cudng qudc cfta nudc Phdp
Nhin nhdn nhiing truang hap nghien citu a
tren, chung ta co the thdy vai Ird ve niem lin
cita tinh hoa trong qud trinh kien tgo chuang
trinh hgt nhdn, nhung nhu vdy Id chua du Hgc
gid Jacques Hymans phdn biet giira cdc nhd
ddn loc chit nghia vai nhitng nguai co dia vi
thdp han Theo do, nhd dan tpc chii nghTa ddi
lap chdc chan se the hidn thai dp tich cyc ddi
vdi vide sd hiiu hal nhan: "Cdc nha dan tpc chu
nghTa ddi lap thay dat nudc canh tranh vdi cdc
ddi thu lft ben ngoai cung nhu phdi ngang bdng
hoac khdng mudn ndi la vugt trpi Chinh quan
niera ay da dan ddn hai cdra xuc la sg hai va ndi
tu hao - mpt trang thai pha trdn ldm ly mang
tinh bimg nd Do sg hai vd ly hao dinh hudng,
cdc nha dan tpc chu nghTa khat khao sd hftu
VKHN, vugt qua ca nhihig linh toan lgi ich Do
ciia nirdrc Phap Mat khdc, de Gaulle cung to ra it chil
trong t6i viec lieu luc lucmg h^t nhan ciia Phap co dii
hay khong Vi du, trong cuoc khiing hoang Berlin 1958
hodng t6n lira Cuba 1962 (sau vu thii nhung trudc khi
nhan m^nh niem tin rang Lien X6 s5 khong mao hi£m
tan c6ng cdc nuac NATO
do, mac cho su phftc lap cua nhftng lya chgn hat nhdn, cdc nha lanh dao ma quyet sd hiru bom hal nhdn cd xu hudng khdng quay trd lai Ddi vdi hg, khdng gidng nhu phdn ldn cdc ddng nghiep, lya chgn VKHN chang phdi mpt ldi keu ggi hay sy lya chgn cudi cung ma la sy can thidt luyet ddi"'
Trong khi do, Scott D Sagan chi ra rdng viec sa hiru VKHN gdn nhu de phuc vu lgi ich chlnh Iri hep cua mot so nhdn vdt Irong giai tinh hoa han Id bdo vi an ninh quoc gia Do
dd, neu mpi chu the dudi qudc gia, vi du nhu cac chfnh in gia, quan chftc lien quan den chuang frinh hat nhan hay nhiing nhan vat cd dnh hudng frong qudn dpi hoac cdc quan chftc mong mudn xay dung chuong irinh hat nhan la dan vi phan tich dau lien, cdn nhan td an ninh qudc gia chi la phan phy Them nfta, Sagan cho rdng nhung nhan Id dudi ldm qudc gia, cac nhdm tinh hoa vdi lgi ich nhdm lac dpng den chinh sach cua chinh phu theo hai each, cdch true tiep Id ldn dung khd ndng va sue manh chinh
tn, each thu hai la lac dpng gian tiep qua thdng tin Gde nhin nay ngy y rdng cdc chft the dudi tam qudc gia cd mpt vai trd chft dpng hon trong qua trinh hoach dinh chinh sach chft khdng don thuan la chay Iheo vd phuc limg nhiing nhftng quyel sdch chinh tri cua cdc lanh dao cap cao Cac nha dpc tai vdn khdng ua xu thd hdi nhdp khu vye va toan cau gdn nhu chdc chdn se tim each sd him VKHN de dat dugc cac myc dich chinh tri cung nhu duy Iri quydn lyc VKHN trd thdnh mdt cdng cy tuyen tmyen cua cdc nha nudc dpc lai ve chinh tri va biet lap ve kinh le Ndi cdch khac, lgi ich hep ciia mpt sd chu the Irong qua trinh hoach dinh chinh sdch hat nhan tac dpng manh den su lya chgn cua ddi nudc Nhung chu the ndy Ihdng thudng mudn VKHN dugc sd huu bdi gidi quan su, ngdnh cdng nghiep quan sy, gidi khoa hgc hat nhan va
Hymans, Jacques E C, (2006): ^a ddn, p 2 ' Sagan, Scort D (1996) iVliy Do Slates Build Nuclear
Weapons? Three Models in Searcli of a Bomb,
Intemationai Security, No 21 (3), p 63,
^ Sagan, Scott D (1996): da ddn, p 64
Trang 4tdng ldp chinh fri Thdng thudng, lgi ich chung
cua nhdm cac chu the nay se tao ra mdt lien
minh, mpt nhdm linh hoa chien lugc mudn
gianh dugc quyen kiem soat hanh chinh va
thdng tin ddi vdi cdng ludn Bang cdch kiem
soat cdng ludn, nhdm tinh hoa chien lugc cd the
tao ra tam ly sd ddng hudng tdi VKHN vdi viec
dyng len nhftng mdi de dga frong nhan thftc va
quan trgng hon la gan nhiing gia tri mang tinh
bieu tugng vao cdc thiet bi hat nhdn, dd cd the
la ldng tu tdn qudc gia, nhitng gid fri tap the,
Nhdra tinh hoa chidn lugc se hoat ddng nhu
chat xuc tac cho chinh sach hat nhan khi lam
ndi Ien nhihig quy chuan lien quan den huyen
thoai hat nhan
Vai trd cfta cac chu the dudi tam nha nudc
dugc thay rd trong Irudng hgp cua Bdc Trieu
Tidn Myc dich cao nhat ma Bac Trieu Tien
hudng tdi khi theo dudi chuang Irinh hat nhan
la gift gia dinh hg Kira tren dinh cao quyen lyc
chft khdng han la de bao dara an ninh vd tuong
lai cua dat nudc nay Lap ludn cua gidi chftc
Bdc Trieu Tien vdi chinh sdch "tien quan" eftng
nguydn tac co bdn ty lyc cdnh sinh cung viec
noi khdng vdi thuong mai quic tl khiln vu khi
h£il nhdn dugc coi la sftc manh chinh la nguyen
nhdn gidi thich cho dpng lyc hat nhdn cua nudc
ndy Gidi chuc quan sy raudn sd hftu VKHN
nhu mpt phuang lidn dl dam bdo quyin luc
thdng tri d cdp dp npi dia Chinh sach lien qudn
cua Trieu Tien do do tao dilu kien cho viec
phat trien hat nhdn dl duy tri chl dp dpc lai
quan su d nudc ndy Bdn canh lgi ich cua gidi
qudn sy, nguyen ldc ty lyc cdnh sinh vd ly cung
ty cap va thuyet chu the {juchef^ cung phdn
anh muc tieu cua nha dpc tdi nhdm duy iri linh
'""Thuydt chli the" hoac "Chii i\\k tu tuong" cho rdng con
ngudi Id chu the ciia tdt ca moi thir tren ddi nay va
quylt djnh lat ca moi thii Van dung y nay vao hodn
canh cdch mang Tri^u Tien thi ngudi Tri^u Tien chinh
tu tudng ciia mot che dp chinh tri khong chi dan gian
cam thay kho dich trpn ven npi dung ciia thuat ngii nay,
thudng chon gidi phdp la phien am, trong tiing Anh
Id Juche Idea
hop hien va quyen lyc tuyet ddi thdng qua viec
sd hiiu vu khi hal nhdn
Duai goc nhin kien lao, niim tin vd lam ly, cdm xiic cua giai linh hoa quy dinh se chuyin Irgng thdi sa hitu VKHN thdnh hdnh dpng mang linh quy chudn vd dugc quy dmh bai bdn sdc
That bdt ngd khi cd su chu y ddnh cho bidu tugng hat nhan va su phat trien cua nhung quy chudn lien quan den vec sd hihi loai hinh vu khi nay" Khuynh hudng sd hiiu hat nhan cua mpt nudc cd ihl bat ngudn tft ban sdc cua xd hpi do, Khdi nidm vl ban sdc trong sy lua chgn chinh sach ngoai giao phdn anh quan niem cua mpt xa hpi vl vide ddt nudc ay dftng d dau trong tuong quan vdi cac nudc khac tren tmdng qudc ll Quan niem bdn sac mang linh canh tranh nay dinh hudng cho quan diem rdng dat nudc nen canh tranh hay chap nhan, vi the cao hay thdp, v.v Quan niem vd ban sdc chuyen thdnh quy chuan nhu la khudn mau ftng xft dirih hudng cho chinh sach hat nhan va ddi ngoai Trong Irudng hgp cdc quy chuan ldn thdnh vide sd hftu VKHN thi nhftng quy chuan dd xuat phat tir mdt khudn mau ca bdn la tham vgng sd hihi Can phai chu y rdng tham vgng gidi Irft md mpt nudc cd gdng theo dudi thdng qua sd hiiu VKHN khdng tuong iing vdi vide gin gift an ninh Hon thd nfta, nd bieu thi thara vgng ciia nha nudc de ty bdo ve rainh, phdn ftng vdi nhirng bat dn ve an ninh va tham vgng ty ve mdt each ddc lap Dieu nay ngu y ca hai khia canh: nhan thftc ve an ninh vd chft quyen Gdn nhu cac nudc se mudn sd huu hal nhdn nlu hp Ihay bdt dn ve an ninh hodc cd xu hudng thyc hien chinh sdch ngoai giao dpc lap ty chu hodc the hien tiem ndng quydn luc Trong md hinh ve
sy lya chgn hat nhan cua cac nha lanh dao, Jacques E C Hymans da phdt Iridn khai niem ban sdc qudc gia nhu mpt biln sd dpc lap ma dng dinh nghia la "each hidu cua mpt cd nhdn
ve ban sdc qudc gia - cam xuc cua ngudi nay
Ve van de dao diic hat nhan, xem thfim Nye, Joseph S,
(1986): Nuclear Ethics Free Press, New York, vd Stephen P Lee (1993) Morality, Prudence andNuclear
Weapons, Cambridge University Press, New York
Trang 5hodc ngudi kia ve cai ma qudc gia dai dien cho
va vi the qudc gia dung cao the nao so vdi cdc
nudc khac fren trudng qudc ll"'^ Quan niem v l
ban sdc qudc gia Id rapt nilm lin dn sau ben rd
va khd thay ddi qua Ihdi gian
Cach thftc nhiing quy chuan mang tinh lien
chu quan {intersubjective) va xudt phat tft ban
sdc tap thi bilu thi cho chinh sdch hat nhan
thdng qua khudn mau "chftng ta" chdng lai "hg"
vdn Ihl hien sy tuong phdn gifta chu t h i "chung
ta" vdi nhimg ke thu dich tren thuc t l hoac
frong nhdn thuc Trong thdi ky Chiln Iranh
Lanh, su thu dich dugc xdc dinh thdng qua sy
xung ddt vd y thuc he cdn hien tai, hdu hit cac
nudc frong thdi ky hau thuc ddn, quan niem v l
"ke khdc" gan nhu dugc gdn vdi nhihig nudc
thyc dan tmdc ddy va ngudi k l thfta cua hg
Ban sdc Ihdi ky hau thyc ddn cd xu hudng dua
them nhiing chidu canh tinh cam manh me vao
viec xac dinh sy khdc biet gifta "ta" vd "hg" vd
tac dpng manh den tam ly tap thd ve chft quyen
Xung dpi cua sy xdc dinh linh cam vdi trat tu
hat nhan qudc td, frong do cdc cudng qudc thuc
dan cu va nhimg ngudi ke thua ciia hg gianh lay
uy the thdng qua mpt hiep udc bat binh dang,
thuc day thdng qua rapt the che raang tinh bao
ve vdn thudng dugc nhan thftc la de dga cam
giac vd gid tri chu quyen vd qudc gia vdn dugc
cac nhd nudc hau thyc ddn xac dinh Cam gidc
manh me vd chu quyen do cdc nudc hau thyc
dan the hien vd hg lim kiem vi the diing dan
tren chile ban q u i c t l , vi the vdn dugc chuyen
thanh uy tin qudc tl, la nhiing dieu kien quan
trgng tao nen huyen thoai hat nhdn, vi dy nhu
mpt bd quy tdc ung hp viec sd hiiu hat nhan
Jacques Hymans cho rdng ban sdc se chuyen
sang hai dang quy chuan co ban Id "cam ky hat
nhdn" va "huyen thoai hat nhan" Khi cam gidc
v l sy tuong ddng gifta cdc chu thd cang ldn thi
hg se "ghe ldm" nhiing Ioai vu khi mang tinh
bilu tugng cho sftc manh huy diet ciia ke khdc
Ngugc lai, neu nhiing chu the xac dinh radi
quan he vdi "ke khac" Ihuan tuy mang linh ddi lap se cd xu the bi thu hut bdi cdm gidc dugc an toan do vu khi hat nhdn vdi tu each la nhung cdng cy ngan chdn mang lai; dd Id "huyen thoai" Ban sdc Ihdi ky hdu thyc ddn cd xu hudng dua them nhiing chidu canh tinh cara raanh md vao viec xdc dinh sy khdc biet gifta
"ta" va "hg" va lac dpng raanh den tara ly tap the vd chu quyen, Vi du rd nhdi Id tmdng hgp cua Iran va An Dp, trong dd ly luan ve hat nhdn mang iheo ham y chdng thyc ddn manh me Lap luan cua cac nudc nay thien ve cam tinh trong dd
sy phdn ddi danh cho co che lodn cau ve su phan biel hat nhdn cung gidng nhu cupe chidn gidnh dpc lap Xung dpt cua su xac dinh tinh cam vdi frat ty hat nhan qudc td, frong dd cac cudng qudc thyc ddn cu vd nhftng ngudi kd thfta cua hg gianh lay uy the thdng qua mpt hiep udc bat binh ddng, thuc day thdng qua mpt the che mang tinh bao vd vdn ihudng dugc nhan thftc la de dga cam giac ve gid tri chu quyen va qudc gia vdn dugc cac nha nudc hau thyc dan xac dinh
Ngodi ldm ly "chong thuc ddn" vd lim cong bdng, cdc nhd nuac co dpng luc phdt trien hgt nhdn khi hg nhgn thdy VKHN Id biiu tuang cua
uy lin vd su hien dgi, ddng thdi thuc ddy vi the
cua nhd nudc hay nhu Lavoy ndi rdng dd la rapt huyen thoai Quan niem ve huyen thoai hat nhan rat gdn vdi tu tudng ve uy tin, cdi ma cdc nudc lim kiera trong he thdng qudc te Cdc nudc deu raudn ndng cao vi the bdng cdch bieu tmng va tang cudng quyen lyc
VKHN, vdn dugc coi la bieu tugng cua sue manh luyet ddi, xudt hien nhu la mpt cdng cu dac lyc de cac nhd nudc dat dugc muc tieu cua rainh Nhiing nhd nudc dd "thudng la nhiing nudc that tran trong cudc chien tranh giua cac cudng qudc va/hoac tdng cudng quyen lyc sau khi trdt ty qudc Id dugc Ihiet lap va lgi ich dugc phan chia" Ludn diem kien tao nay dal frgng tam vao ldgic vd sy tuong thich, vdn dugc xac dinh nhu hanh vi chinh tri nhu la sdn pham cfta
'^ Hymans, Jacques E, C (2006): The Psychology of '^ Feaver, Peter D (2000): Brother, Can You Spare a
Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Paradigm'', Intemationai Security, Vol 25, No.l,
Po/zcy, Cambridge University Press, p 13 Summer 2000, p 177
NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR! TH^ GICTI So 10(234) 2015
Trang 6luat le, vai frd va bdn sdc ma quy dinh hanh yi
cua qudc gia frong limg tmdng hgp cu the
Nhiing ddng lyc cua hanh vi sd huu hat nhdn do
dd dugc nhin nhan tft gde dp nhiing gia Iri dugc
kiln tao v l mat xd hdi Trong khi nhilu nudc cd
thi cho rdng sd hiiu VKHN la dieu kien can thiel
d l frd thdnh rapt nhd nudc hipn dai thi nhimg
nudc khac cd ihl phat frien nhihig quy chuan ddi
lap, khac biet vdi bdn sdc cua mpt nhd nudc hidn
dai Theo hgc gia Scott D Sagan "tu goc nhin xa
hpi hgc, cdc td chftc quan sy vd vu khi cua hg cd
thd dugc dy dodn mang chftc ndng phye vu nhu
nhiing la cd, cac hang hang khdng hay dpi tuydn
Olympic; chiing la ragt phan md cac nha nudc
hien dai lin rang hg phai sd hftu de dung Id
nhftng nha nudc chinh thdng vd hien dai"
Niem tu hdo v&i tham vgng ve vi thi Id nhdn
to quan Irong trong quan niem ve bdn sdc
Niem tu hdo the hien irong radi quan he gifta
chung la vdi ddi Ihii/ddi tdc Thara vgng ve vj
the dugc chuyen thanh thai dp sd hiiu VKHN
trong hai trudng hgp: Thit nhdt, "chung ta" binh
dang hay ban "ngudi khac" ve vi the; hogc thie
hai, viec ddi thu sd hiiu VKHN dugc nhan thuc
la vi tdng cudng vi the Trudng hgp thft hai la
ddc biel quan trgng Nd cd the ly giai cho gia
thiet rang hau het cac nudc xdc djnh vi the cua
hg il nhat phai ngang bdng khi so sanh vdi cdc
ddi thu'^ Neu ddi thu dugc cho la ttm each
ndng cao vi the nhd VKHN thi khdt khao ve vi
the chdc chdn se chuyen sang mong mudn sd
hihi vu khi' Mat khdc, Irong sd cdc nudc cd
tiem ndng hal nhdn quan sy nhung khdng phat
trien, tham vong ve vi the cd the dugc nang vdi
" Sagan, Scott D (1996): da ddn, p,74,
'^ Co ngudi se cho rdng mrdc Dire Id mot ngoai le khi tim
kiem vj the trong so sdnh vdi hai doi thu dupc vu trang
le ndy bat nguon tir yeu to hch sii khi ngirdi Diic da
thua tran trong The chien thii hai
'* Nudc sd hOu VKHN de chong lai ddi thii khong cd
VKHN chinh la Israel Trong khi Israel chung td hp Id
cho rdng sir sg hai (ban chdt) ddng vai trd tdi quan trpng
trong su lira chgn hat nhdn Mot vi du khdc cho gia thi6t
ndy la B3c Tneu Tien vdi cdc ddi thii la Hdn Qu6c va
Nhat Ban ; tuy day khdng phdi la mpt vi du cd sue nang
khi 2 nudc kia ciing co tiem ndng quan su cyc ldn
cao quan diem chdng hat nhdn (dl cao dao dftc, giai trft quan bi) ndu ddi thu cua hg bien hp rang VKHN la mpt phan cua vi the qudc Id"' Trong ITnh vuc hat nhan, Irdt ly qudc te thiet lap ndm 1968 vdi Hidp udc Cara phd bidn (NPT), gift gin Irang thai cdn bang quyin luc nhung mang lai ddng cdp sidu cudng cho mpt nhdm 5 nudc Nhihig nudc ndo cho rdng su bat cdng phat Iriln eftng vdi vi the va quyen lyc ngay cdng tang cua nhdm 5 nudc kia se cd xu Ihl chdng lai thi chl Su ddi lap nay cd the bi han chl, it ihl hien trong hoat dpng ngoai giao cua hdu hit cdc cudng qudc dang ndi ldn nhung frong mdt vdi Irudng hgp, nhihig nudc mdi ndi
se tira kilra mpt sy thay ddi Irong he thdng bdng cdch sd hihi VKHN Vi the, phai hieu ve
sy khac bidt rd rang tdn tai gifta vu khi thdng thudng vd VKHN, Sy khac biet nay khdng nam trong cac ftng dung qudn sy hay mftc dp huy diet ma hon thi nfta, sy khac bidt nay dugc kiln tao ve mat xa hpi, phdn dnh ban sac cfta nhiing chu the cd lien quan Ban sac dugc chuyen Ihanh quy chuan djnh hudng cho cac khudn khd hdnh dpng, Trong qua Irinh hinh thanh quy chuan, nhiing cam xuc nhu sy tu hdo hay ndi sg hai dugc gan vdi vdn de hal nhan Trong qua Irinh ndy, VKHN ndi len nhu rapt bieu tugng cua uy tin
Trong trudng hgp nudc Phap nhu da trinh bay d tren, niem lin cua gidi chftc Phdp khi do
da bien VKHN trd thanh mdt bieu lugng ciia su dpc lap vd vT dai Nudc Phap sau The chien thft hai da d vdo mpt vi the khdng chdc chdn: Du la mdt nudc chien thang nhung neu xet vd v; the qudc td vd sftc manh quan su thi hg chdng la gi
so vdi cac nudc trong phe Ddng Minh va ciing thua kem rdl nhieu so vdi chinh nudc Phap trong giai doan trudc do Do dd, khdng ngac nhidn khi chtnh phu cua Ndn cpng hda ihu tu
va thft ndra lim mgi each thuc va phuong lien
de dua nudc Phap trd lai vi the cudng qudc nhu trong lich su'* Sau cupe chidn, no lyc dau
Cac nudc Scandinavia co the coi la vi du cho dpng luc nay
'* vk vdn da nay, tham khao them Scheinman, Lawrence (1965): Atomic Energy Policy in France Under the
Trang 7tien cua nudc Phdp nhdm khdi phuc lai vi the
Id lap Irung vao cupe chiln gift vi the de qudc
d cac thudc dia nhung nhu Michel Martin da
ndi, "khi tam man da bao phu vi Ihl thuc dan
thi su vT dai cua dat nudc ndy phai dugc nudi
ndng tft nhiing ngudn khdc"'^ VKHN cd thi
dugc coi Id bieu tugng cua nudc Phdp trong
sudt thdi ky sau nay Khi ngudi Phdp mien
cudng dimg thft hat nhdn tft gifta nhftng ndm
1990, dieu dd khdng chi dugc coi nhu nhftng
lo ngai ve hien dai hda qudn su va an todn hat
nhdn md cdn bdi nhihig vu thft dugc nudc
Phdp coi nhu la bieu tudng cua ban sdc vd vi
the cudng qudc cua nudc Phdp
2 Mpt vai han che trong phan tich cua
CNKT
Cho du da raang lai each tiep can mdi dua
vao tam ly cua gidi tinh hoa va van de lien quan
den ban sac qudc gia vd nhdn ihftc ve chudn
myc nhung each ly giai cua CNKT ve vdn dd
phd bidn hat nhan van cdn mpt sd diera han che
nhu sau:
Thii: nhdt, cdch ly giai dya vdo each tiep can
ca nhan va gidi tinh hoa vdi nhirng lgi ich hep
cua hg khdng ban la hgp ly vd dung dan frong
mgi tmdng hgp vd mgi Ihdi diera Vi du, trong
nhiing ndm 1990, Bdc Trieu Tien thyc thi chinh
sach khdc hdn vdi hien nay Quyel dinh ky ket
mpt hiep udc khung cua Bdc Trieu Tien vdo
ndra 1994 dugc coi la mdt sy bai thudng Du
bdi canh Bdc Trieu Tien phai chju dyng cung
khdng khdc hien nay la may (ihidu ddi, kinh le
tri tre, tap Irung quyen lyc trong tay quan dpi)
nhung hg van quyet dinh ky thda thuan ngimg
chuang trinh hat nhan Thda thuan song phuang
vdi My bupc Bac Trieu Tien phai lam ddng cfta
nha may hat nhan Yongbyon, cho phep cdc
thanh sdt vidn cua IAEA den ldm vide vd la mpt
thanh vien ciia Hiep udc NPT, Thda thuan ndy
chftng Id Bdc Trieu Tien sdn sang dinh chi
Fourth Republic vd Kohl, Wilfrid (1971): French
Nuclear Diplomacy, Princeton University Press
" Martin, Michel L (1981): Warriors lo Managers The
French Military Establishment Since 1945, Chapel HiU,
University ofNorth Carolina Press, N C , p.21
chuong trinh hat nhan vd chuang frinh hat nhan Tridu Tien khdng phai phuc vy cho lgi ich cua cac nha ldnh dao chinh tri va quan sy Hanh vi trai ngugc ndy khdng dftng vdi logic cho rang VKHN dugc quyet dinh bdi gidi tinh hoa
Thtt hai, du cdch tidp can ndy khd hiiu dung,
cd the gidi thich vai trd cua nhihig ca nhan, gidi linh hoa cd dnh hudng trong qua trinh xay dyng chuong Irinh hat nhdn nhung rapt phe phdn chung nfta ddnh cho cdch tidp can dya vdo niem tin la nd chi ihich hgp dd ly gidi hdnh dpng cua
ca nhan chu rat khd de gidi Ihich tai sao cdc nhdm cd niem tin ve cdc van de tuong tu nhu nhau Hon nua, luan diera cho rang cdc nhdm chuyen gia cd the dnh hudng den quyet dinh khdng phd bien Id thuyet phuc nhung ciing dan den cau hdi lam sao cac chuyen gia cd the Ihay ddi niem tin cua cac nhd hoach dinh chinh sach Ndi each khdc, dieu gi khien cac nha lanh dao chinh tri chap nhan tu tudng cfta mdt nhdm cdc chuyen gia nay thay vi mdt nhdm khac? Tai sao
hg san sang chap nhan thuyet ngdn chdn bdng ly tri cua nhftng ndra 1950? Tai sao ly thuyet nay khdng cdn thuyet phye? Cdc nhd lanh dao chinh Iri ddi khi sft dung y tudng cua cdc chuyen gia
de giai thich hodc hgp ly hda nhiing chinh sdch
ma hg theo dudi vi cac myc dich chinh tri
Thir ba, du cd nhiing didra dang chu y giai
thich ddng lyc phd bien cung sy lya chgn chinh sach nhung each tiep can tara ly van cdn nhiing diem han che Han che ldn nhdt la nhiing nhan
td tam ly, quy chuan hay ban sdc rat khd dugc dinh lugng, rat de thay ddi thdng qua qua trinh hgc tap va nhdn Ihftc; vi phan tich dya tren nhirng yeu td tinh than chi raang lai nhiing giai thich tucmg ddi han che ve dpng lyc ciia cdc qudc gia hat nhan Cach liep can lam ly cd the mang lai each hieu ve he thdng niem lin cung qua frinh hgc hdi hay tac dpng cua chung vdo van de hoach dinh chinh sdch nhung chiing qua hep va chuyen biel de gidi ihich mdi quan he gifta niem lin vdi cdc nhan td khac Irong qud trinh phd bien Khi tdra ly cd nhan lanh dao thay ddi ihi lieu chinh sach cd thay ddi? Cd the ndi rdng niem tin se thay ddi nhu la kit qua cua qua
Trang 8trinh hgc tap hay nhan thuc dua nhihig thdng tin
dugc chia se vd qua trinh hgc tap, nhan thftc nay
cd the dan den nhihig chinh sdch mdi Cau hdi
quan frgng cdn phdi gidi quyel la: cdi gi khien
cdc chu the tin rdng mpt sd viec hg lam la diing
va mdi quan he giua niem tin, sy kien, Iruyen
Ihdng, cdng nghe va chinh tri la gi?
Chdc chan, cdi ggi Id huyen thoai hal nhan
gdn nhu se tdn tai cho den khi nhung ca nhdn cd
vi tri cao, tam dnh hudng thay ddi tu duy vd tao
ra mpi huyen thoai khac - cd the Id cau chuyen
mat an ninh hal nhdn Cdu hdi ddt ra d day la
lieu niem tin vao trang thdi mdt an ninh hal
nhan do thu vu khi do mang lai cd the dugc coi
la huyen thoai? Khi cang cd nhilu thdng tin v l
nhftng tac dpng lieu cyc tu cac vy lai nan hal
nhan raang lai va khi ngudi ta nghi vdn nhiing
tdc dpng dd thi cd niem tin ve hal nhdn vdi tu
each nhu mpi cau chuydn huyin thoai dudng
nhu khdng cdn dung dan
Nhin chung, each tiep can raang linh nhan
thftc, dya vdo ldm ly ca nhan vd ldp trung vdo
niem lin cung nhu vai frd cua gidi tinh hoa Irong viec xay dung ban sdc hay bilu tugng qudc gia cd the gdp phdn giai thich v l nhihig anh hudng den quydl dinh sd hihi va phd biln VKHN Mpt lgi ich cua each liip can nay la nhdn Ihftc dpng luc phd bidn da tach rdi khdi quan diem cho rdng cac cd nhan hay nhdm hoach dinh chinh sdch hat nhan bi dinh hudng bdi Igi ich qudc gia hay sue ep cua he thing qudc te Dieu nay mang lai each dien gidi rpng hcm ve dpng luc cho hanh vi cua con ngudi, vugt qua gidi han cua Chu nghTa hipn thuc trong viec tim kiem nguyen nhdn phd bidn VKHN
Dil vay, tam ly ca nhan la cai rdl kho dl lugng hda, can dong do dera Hon nfta, viec phi bien niem tin giua cac thanh vien ciia mpi nhom tinh hoa cam quyen ciing khdng phai chuydn de dang; ngoai ra, niem tin ay cd the lan tda den nhiing nhdm linh hoa ddi lap hay nhdm tinh hoa cdm quyen cd dft khd ndng dd bien niem tin thanh hdnh dpng hay khdng la dieu rdt khd noi
Vi the, khd cd the coi ly luan cua CNKT la mpt each gidi thich loan dien, md nd chi ddng gdp them mpt tidng ndi hay rapt gde nhin da chieu hon, cdch gidi thich cho dpng lyc phi biln VKHN tren Ihl gidi*
Tai lieu tham khao:
1 Crawford, Neta C (2000): The Passion of World Politics: Propositions on Emotions and Emotional Relationships, Intemational Security, No 24, Vol 4
2 de Gaulle, Chades (1971): Memoirs of Hope: Renewal and Endeavor, Simon and Schuster,
New York
3 Hymans, Jacques E C (2006): The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, Cambridge University Press
4 Jervis, Robert (1976): Perception and Misperception in Inlernalional Politics Princeton,
Princeton University Press
5 Lavoy, Peter R (1993): Nuclear Myths and the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation, Security
Studies, Vol 2, Spring/Summer
6 Nye, Joseph S (1986): Nuclear Ethics, Free Press, New York
7 Sagan, Scott D (1996): Why Do Stales Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of
a Bomb, Intemational Security, No 21 (3),