NGUYEN VAN VIET Vi^n Nude, Ttr&i tieu vd Moi trirdng, Vi$n khoa hpc thdy Ifi Vi$l Nam Tom t3t: Lien quan din cdng tdc img phd vdi BBKH vd gidm nhe rui ro thien tai, Viet Nam dang thuc
Trang 1XAY DUNG GAG TIEU CHJ LdNG GHEP BI^N D 6 | KHI H A U
VAO QUY HOAGH, KE HOAGH SAN X U A T NONG NGHIEP
CAP XA PHUG vy XAY DUNG NONG THON wdi d VIET NAM
THS HA HAI DirONG, THS NGUYEN XUAN LAM, PGS.TS NGUYEN VAN VIET
Vi^n Nude, Ttr&i tieu vd Moi trirdng, Vi$n khoa hpc thdy Ifi Vi$l Nam
Tom t3t: Lien quan din cdng tdc img phd vdi BBKH vd gidm nhe rui ro thien tai, Viet Nam dang thuc
hien cdc vdn bdn chi dao ciia Chinhphii vd tdt cd cdc vdn bdn ndy deu neu ro tdm quan trpng vd su cdn thiet
ciia viec ldng ghep BBKH vdo cdc chien luac, quy hoach, ke hoach phdt trien a tdt cd cdc cdp vd dac biet Id
ke hogch, phdt trien KT-XH ndi chung vd nong nghiep ndi rieng theo hudng phdt trien ben vimg Tuy nhien,
chitng ta chua cd mdl vdn bdn chinh thuc hudng ddn cu the nao cho qud trinh ldng ghep BBKH cho nong
nghiep d cdp xd trong chuang trinh xdy dung phdt trien ndng thdn mdi a Viet Nam Be gdp phdn gidi quyet
khd khdn tren, viec xdy dung tdi lieu hudng ddn cUng nhu cdc tieu chi cho quy trinh ldng ghep thich img vdi
bien ddi khi hdu trong quy hoach vd lap ke hoach phdt trien nong nghiep cdp xd la cdn thiet Bdi bdo ndy
trinh bay cdc ldc ddng ciia BBKH den cdc lmh vuc ndng nghiep vd lit do xdy dung duac cdc tieu chi ldng
ghep BBKH vdo quy hogch ke hogch sdn xudt ndng nghiep cdp xd
Tie khda: Long ghep bien ddi khi hdu, Sdn xudt ndng nghiep, tieu chi long ghep bien ddi khi hdu
Abstract; Regarding to the tasks for climate change adaptation and disaster risks mitigation,
Vietnam government had promulgated many relevant documents and guidelines All these documents
expressed the important of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development strategies,
policies and planning at all level, especially development and planning of socio-economic sectors in
general and sustainable agriculture development sectors in particular However, there is still no official
guideline for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into agriculture sector at community level for
new rural development in Vietnam Therefore, the development of a guideline and criteria for
mainstreaming climate change adaptation into agriculture sector at community level is urgent required
This paper presents climate change impacts on agriculture sectors and based on that proposing the
criteria for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into agriculture sector at community level
Key words: Mainstreaming climate change adaptation, agriculture production, mainstreaming criteria
I TAG BONG CUA BIEN BOI KHI giam khoang 743,8 ngan tin vao n5m 2030 va
HAU BEN CAC LINH VlTC NONG 1475 ngan tin vao nam 2050 Cac cay m k
NGHIEP VIET NAM luong thuc nhu ngo co nguy co giam 500,4
1.1 LTnh vu-c nong nghiep ngan tin vao nam 2030 va giam 880,4 ngan tin
a) Suy gidm ndng sudt vd sdn lupng Iuang thuc: vao nam 2050, nang suit dau tuong co nguy co
Ket qua nghien cmi cho thiy n6u dien biin giam 83,47kg/ha vao nam 2030 va 214,81 kg/ha
khi hau theo nhu kich ban, voi che dp canh tac vao nam 2050 do tac dgng ciia BDKH.'
nhu hi?n tai thi san lupng Wa xuan se co thg se b) Mdl dai do nude biin ddng
giam khoang 1,2 trieu tin vao nam 2030 va 2,16 Theo kjch ban BDKH din cu6i thi ky 21 nuoc
tri?u tin vao nSm 2050 San luong liia he thu se biin dang Im, co toi 38,29% di$n tich dit tv'nhien
Trang 2va 32,16% dien tieh ddt nong nghiep bi ngap tai
10 tmh DBSCL nlu khong co bien phap ung phd
kip thdi Den nam 2100, vua Iiia D6ng bang s6ng
Ciiu long CO nguy ca mat di 7,6 trieu tan liia/nam,
tuang duong vdi 40,52% t6ng san lugng liia eiia
vung Neu kich ban BDKH, nude bien dang d
miic cao {A2), Viet Nam se doi mat vdi viec thieu
Iuang thyc trdm trgng vao nam 2100 nhu mat di
21.39% san lugng Iiia ca nude (mdi tinh rieng cho
vung DBSCL) Tren thye te, dien tich se bi ngap
do nude bien dang Im tren pham vi ea nude con
ldn hon nhieu [ 12,16]
c) Tdc dpng den vgt nuoi, sdu binh hgi miig
mdng vd gia sue
Nang suat, san lugng cay trdng, vat nudi co
the bi giam do bien dg cua nhiet do, do am va
cac yeu to ngoai canh khae tang len Nguon
cung cap thiic an cho chan nu6i giam Nhiet do
tSng ciing vdi bien dgng ve cac yeu to khi hau
va thai tiet khae co the lam giam siic de khang
cua vat nuoi, ddng thdi tao moi trudng thuan lgi
cho cac tac nhan gay benh bimg phat, gay ra
nhiing dai dich Idn cho cay trdng vat nuoi nhu
gia siie, gia cam
1.2 Linh virc lam nghifp
a) Su thay ddi ranh gi&i phdn bo cua cdc he sinh
thdi rimg tie nhien, rimg trong vd da dgng sinh hpc
Theo kich ban do nen nhiet dp tang, lugng
mua thay d6i, s6 co sy dich chuyen nhieu Ioai
cay dae trung d vimg co nen nhiet do cao d vi
dg thap len vimg ed vT do cao hon Sy thay d6i
ranh gidi va di?n tieh ciia 3 he sinh thai rimg
dae trung nay theo eac kich ban BDKH vao nam
2020,2050 va2100
b) BDKH se ldm tdng nguy ca chdy rimg a
Viet Nam
Nguy CO chay rimg se tang trong cac thap ky
tdi Cae thang cd nguy co chay rimg cao la thang
5, 6 va 7 Nguy co chay rung vao nam 2020 tang
hon so vdi nam 2000 tu 6 - 40%; vao nam 2050 la
tir 16-52% va vao nam 2100 la tir 51-85%.;
c) Ddi vdi h? sinh thdi rimg ngdp man
BDKH, dac biet la mue nude bi6n dang va
nhiet do nude bien tang anh hudng d6n eac he
sinh thai bien va ven bien, gay nguy co vdi cac ran san h6 va rirng ngap man, anh hudng xau den nen tang sinh hgc cho cac hoat dpng khai thac va nuoi tr6ng thuy san ven bien Hau qua eua viec suy thoai rimg ngap man se keo theo cac tac dpng khae, do la gia tang nguy co xdi Id
bd bien, tang miic do pha buy d6i vdi vung ven bien do tac dgng ciia bao, 16c, song bien va khi rimg ngap man hi suy thoai thi da dang sinh hgc
hi anh hudng theo hudng tieu cyc.[7,12,16] 1.3 Linh vwc thiiy san
a) Tae dpng eiia BDKH den khai thde vd nuoi trong thuy sdn
Tac dpng BDKH ddi vdi nghe ca phu thuge vao ehu6i thiic an dai ducmg, chudi nay se hi rdi loan khi khi hau thay ddi CJ viing dong bang, mua trong mua lii co the lam giam kha nang sinh de, phat tan, phat trien cua ca Cac yeu to nhu myc nude bien, nhiet do, do man, toe do va hudng gid, do day tram tich se anh hudng ldn tdi thuy sinh vat, qua dd tac ddng den kha nang eung cap dinh dudng cho ea, sy di eu ciia ca theo su bien d6i eiia nhiet do
b) Tdc dpng cua BDKH den ehe biin, djch vu hgu cdn va ca s& hg tdng thuy sdn
BDKH cung gay ra nhiing anh hudng kh6ng nho doi vdi co sd ha tang cae cang ca, noi neo dau tau thuyen, eac tram xang dau ven bien,v.v
e) Tdc dpng ciia BDKH din ddi song cpng dong ngu ddn
Viet Nam co 28 tinh ven bien, trong do khoang
20 trieu dan s6ng gan bo vdi bien va hai dao Khi hau bien ddi, thien tai xay ra, san xuat kho khan, thu nhap se giam siit, doi ngheo nay sinh, thyc te cho thay, ngudi dan cd the bi mat noi cu tni, phai
di eu, chuyen doi nghe nghiep [12,16 ] 1.4 LTnh vyc thuy lgi
a) Cdc hien tugng khi hdu cue doan lam hu hgi cdc cong trinh thuy lgi
Trong vong hem 40 nam qua (1954-1997) da
CO 320 can bao va ap thap nhiet ddi anh hudng den Viet Nam Bao thudng kem theo mua Idn gay lu lyt, Iii quet, lam thiet hai nang ne ve sinh mang va tai san Bao lii la nguyen nhan gay nen
Trang 3mdt an toan va eo the pha hoai cac c6ng trinh
thuy lgi, he thong de dieu (de s6ng va de bien)
Tir nam 1970 dSn nay, boat dgng ciia bao va ap
thdp nhiet ddi eo phan diln ra manh liet han
Han han tuy it de dga den he thong e6ng
trinh, nhung han han ciing gay thiet hai ldn den
san xudt va ddi s6ng con ngudi Trong nhimg
nam gan day, tinh trang ban ban, thieu nude
trong mua kho dien ra pho bien d hau het eac
khu vyc trong ca nude, vdi miic dp, quy mo
ngay cang Idn ban
b) Muc nuae bien ddng cdn tra thodt nude
vd tdng xdm nhgp man
Myc nude bien dang lam cho viec cap nude
d vimg duyen hai trd nen kho khan ban Cac
tang nude ngam bi man xam nhap, nude trong
cae gieng bj man hoa, khong diing cho sinh boat
ho^c tudi dugc, huge phai ngimg boat dpng
Hien tugng nude man ngay cang xam nhap sau
vao cac ciia s6ng, lan sau vao d6ng rugng lam
dien tich lua bi nhiem man tang len, lam cho
nhieu c6ng trinh thuy Igi gap khd khan, kh6ng
con boat dpng binh thudng.[7, 8,16 ]
1.5 Linh vyc diem nghiep
Nude bien dang lam mat di nhi^u diem trudng,
giam dien tich d6ng muoi va eo sd ha tang san
xuat muoi bi anh hudng D6ng thdi sy gia tang
lugng mua ldn vdi cudng do cao hon anh hudng
d6n nang sudt san lugng mu6i Viec thu hep dien
tich san xuat, giam san lugng mu6i lam gia tang
dien ngheo trong khu vyc diem nghiep va tao sy
di chuyen cu dan diem nghiep dSn nhiing vimg
dat mdi de tim sinh kk mdi, gay them ap lyc cho
nhung vimg cu dan dianh thi hoac nong th6n v6n
da CO mat dp cao va/hoac binh quan dien tich ddt
nong nghiep tren ddu ngudi thdp [8]
1.6 Linh vu-c phat trien co' sd ha tang
nong thon
a) Tdc dgng din hg tdng nong thon de dga
dai sdng, sice khoe cpng dong
Dan s6 d nong thon Viet Nam chiSm 73%
t6ng s6 dan ciia ca nude (nam 2010), trong d6
tap trung phdn Idn la ngudi ngheo Day la d6i
tugng chiu anh hudng nang n6 nhdt cua BDKH
do do, BDKH se gay kho khan rdt ldn cho cong cugc xoa doi giam ngheo d nong thon trong nhung thap ky tdi He th6ng cdp nude sinh boat
ve sinh mdi trudng nong thon bi anh hudng tram trgng C6ng trinh cdp nude bi ngap, bi pha
vd do thien tai bao lut; Ngu6n nude bi can ki?t,
6 nhiem, xam nhap man do ban ban He thong giao thong n6ng thon ciing bi anh hudng tram trpng: nhieu tuyen giao thdng bi ngap lyt, xoi 16 mat va nen dudng; Sy can kiet dong chay s6ng ngoi ve miia khd dan den giao th6ng thuy bj anh hudng Myc nude bien dang, soi Id bd song gay mat dat tao nen nhirng lan sdng di cu bat buoc anh hudng den sinh ke va gay mat 6n dinh va kem ben viing cho cac ehuang trinh phat trien, eai thien sinh ke va siic khoe eong d6ng
b) Tdc dpng din viec thicc hien muc tieu xoa ddi gidm ngheo, muc tieu Thien nien ky
Viet Nam la mgt trong cac quoc gia tren the gidi dat dugc cac myc tieu thien nien ky vao nam 2015 Viet Nam da giam ty le ddi ngheo tic khoang 58% nam 1993 xuong 18% vao nam
2006 Tuy nhien nhiJng thanh tyu nay gid day dang bi de dga do BDKH BDKH la mgt nguy
ea, rui ro cdn phai tinh d6n trong qua trinh xay dyng, hoan thien va thyc hi?n cac ehi6n luge, quy hoach va k6 hoach phat triin KT-XH Hau qua cua BDKH la thach thirc nghiem trgng d6i vdi myc tieu xoa doi, giam ngheo, muc tieu thien nien ky va sy phat triin bin viing cua ddt nude noi chung va nong nghiep noi rieng [13]
n XAY DlTNG CAC TIEU CHI LONG GHEP BDKH VAO QUY HOACH, KE HOACH SAN XUAT NONG NGHIEP 2.1 Cac tieu chi khi hau doi vdi nong, Iam nghiep va nuoi trong thuy san
a) Tieu ehi ve nhiit dp
Doi vdi ndng lam nghiep va nudi tr6ng thuy san la nhung sinh vat sdng eo lien quan tryc tiip vdi khi hau Cho nen, d nhiing vimg ma miia nhiet la miia sinh trudng cua cay tr6ng vat nu6i vdi nghia rpng bao g6m ca chan nuoi va nu6i trong thuy san (nu6i tren can va nu6i dudi nude) thi CO 3 thdi ky rdt quan trpng, cdn quan tam do
Trang 4la: (1) thdi ky co kha nang xay ra nhung dgt ret
hai (3 ngay lien tiip trd len ed nhiet do khong khi
trung binb <130C); (2) tbdi ky co nhiet do khong
khi trung binh ngay < 200C (miia lanh-miia
dong) va (3) thdi ky co nhiet do kh6ng khi trung
binh > 250C (miia nong-miia he)
Thdi ky co ret hai la mgt trd ngai ldn d6i vdi
san xuat nong Iam nghiep va chan nu6i, vi no gan
lien vdi cac hien tugng thdi tiet gay hai eho cay
trong, vat nu6i nhu ret hai, suong mudi, bang gia
Thdi ky co nhiet dp kh6ng khi trung binh <
200C rat cd y nghTa trong viee b6 tri eac cay ua
lanh va ciing la thdi ky sinh trudng manh me
nhat cua cac loai cdy rau, hoa, qua nguon goc on
ddi Nguge lai thdi ky bat dau nhiet do tren
200C la thdi vy gieo trong cac cay n6ng lam
nghiep ua nhi?t (a ddi va nhiet ddi) va chan tha
gia sue va nuoi tr6ng thiiy san
Thdi k^' CO nhi?t dp khong khi trung binh
ngay > 250C rat cd y nghia trong viec xae dinh
va bo tri thdi ky ra hoa - lam qua t6t nhat cho
cae cay luong thyc, thuc pham (thdi ky tro d6i
vdi Ilia, phun rau trd cd cua ngo, ra hoa - lam
qua cua dau tuong, cua lae ) [16]
b) Tieu chi vi lugng mua
Ddnh gid ve muc bdo dam nu&c mua eho cdy
trong vdt nuoi
Ben c?nh eac tieu chi ve nhiet dp, ciing can
phai biet nhu cau cua cay trdng vat nuoi doi vdi
nude Biet dugc nhu cau nude cua cay trdng ,vat
nu6i, sii dyng s6 Ii?u lugng mua trung binh nam
CO the xae dinh dugc nhiing lugng mua nam cd
ths mong dgi de cho cae cay trong vat nu6i dd
sinh trudng irng vdi eac suat bao dam khac nhau
d tiing miia vy va d6i vdi timg vung Dieu nay
rat CO nghia trong viec danh gia mirc dp thieu
nude hoac thira nude d6i vdi cay trdng (cay
nong nghiep va cay rimg), vat nu6i (tren can va
dudi nude) eung nhu quy hoach phat trien cae
h^ th6ng thuy lgi d6i vdi timg vimg cu the
Doi vai cdy trong vd vgt nuoi irng dung
lugng mua tich lUy ddu miia vd cudi miia di bd
tri thdi vu
D6i vdi nhiing viing ma diiu kien nhiet d6i
vdi cay tr6ng, vat nu6i kh6ng bi ban che nhung nen n6ng nghiep khong eo dieu kien ehu dgng nude tudi ma hoan toan phai trdng dgi vao nude mua, CO 3 cau hdi dat ra khi bo tri miia vy va chan tha la: 1) Vdi nhiing thdng tin ve lugng mua dd, khi nao thi co the bat dau trdng va ehan tha; 2) Lugng mua tich luy den thdi diem nao thi du nude eho eay tr6ng can, khi nao bat dau trdng Ilia nude va nu6i tr6ng thuy san; 3) Co the
bo tri thdi vy muon de nudi, tr6ng vao Iiic nao khi tiem nang mua van cdn
Ben canh do de danh gia nguon nude cho chan nu6i can phai biet nhu cau nude cho timg loai gia sue gia cam de e6 ke hoach phan b6 thich hgp vdi nguon nude ty nhien eiia timg viing (xem Bang 1)
Bang 1 Nhu cau dung nirdc cua mOt
so lo^i gia sue, gia cam (theo dinh mirc 2008)[9, 17 ]
Gia siic Trau + bd
100
Ngira +
de
60 Lgn
50 Gia cam
20
Tir ket qua phan bd gia siic trong cae viing va tieu chuan diing nude cho vat nudi tinh dugc nhu cau sii dyng nude cho chan nudi ddi vdi timg vimg sinh thai trong dieu kien BDKH
Chi tieu mua ngdy vd ede trdn mua to keo ddi gdy lit lut, IU quet vd sat la ddt
Nhin chung d Viet nam nhirng tran mua ldn gay lii lut hoac lii quet, sat Id dat la do cac hinh the thdi tiet sau day:
- Xoay thap Bac Bd nam rieng Ie hoSe ndm trong mgt giai thap ed true Tay bac ~ D6ng Nam hoae Dong Tay vat qua Bae Bp hoat dpng manh tir tang thap den tang cao;
- Xoay thap lanh hoac giai ap thap ton tai d Nam Trung Qu6c ket hgp vdi kh6ng khi lanh hoac bi cao ap lanh day dan xu6ng phia Nam;
Trang 5- Ranh ap thap ndng pbla Tay ket bgp vdi
khong khi lanh;
- Giai hpi ty nhiet ddi, xoay thuan ket hgp vdi
khong khi lanh hay eae hinh the thdi tiit khac;
- Bao hoac bao kit hgp vdi cae hinh the thdi
tiit khac la loai hinh thdi tiit gay mua ldn dien
rpng ddn tdi lu quet
Tir cac hinh thi gay mua d cae vimg co the
xac dinh dugc cac chi tieu mua gay lii lyt, lii
quet va s^t Id dat nhu sau:
- v i sy phan b6 theo khong gian ldn, dien
mua rgng tir tren 2000-3000km2;
- v i su phan b6 mua theo thdi gian mua to
din rdt to keo dai tu 2-3 ngay tham chi keo dai
tdi 8-9 ngay chia ra lam 2-3 dgt lien tiep;
- Lugng mua va cudng dp mua: Mua smh lii lyt
la lugng mua ldn hon hoae bang lOOmm/ngay;
- D6i vdi mua sinh lii quet sat Id dat la lugng
mua tren 200-500nun hoac tren 300-600mm
trong 1 dgt
c) Tiiu chi nude biin ddng doi v&i nhirng
vUng ven bien
Ket qua xac djnh viing cd nguy co bi ngap
theo cac muc nude bien dang cho thay: Neu
myc nude bien dang cao 1 m, se ed khoang 39%
dien tich vimg dong bang song Ciiu Long c6
nguy CO bi ngap (anh hudng tryc tiep khoang
35% so dan); khoang 11% dien tieh vimg d6ng
bang s6ng H6ng co nguy eo bi ngap (anh hudng
true tiep khoang 10% sd dan)
Ddi vdi cac tinh ven bien mien Trung,
khoang 2,5% t6ng dien tich cua khu vyc c6
nguy CO bi ngap (anh hudng true tiep khoang
10% s6 dan); 20,1% dien lich thanh ph6 H6 chi
Minh CO nguy co bi ngap (anh hudng true tiip
khoang 9% so dan) [4]
d) Tiiu chl nhiet-dm ddnh gid khd ndng phdt
triin chdn nuoi bd siea vd gia cdm trong dieu
ki^n BDKH
Thdi tiet khac nghiet (ret, nong va oi biic)
khong chi anh hudng den siic khde cua vat nu6i
ma con anh hudng din kha nang sir dyng thiic
an, nang lyc sinh siia, ty le thy thai cua cac loai
gia sue, kha nang de chiing cua gia cam, miic
tang trgng ciia lgn ga nudi idy thit' [9,16]
Sic dung ehi s6 nhiet - dm (THI) xdc dinh muc gidm dn cd cua bo sira:
HDEC=-28,19+0,39 THI; 0)
Trong do:
H.DEC la miic giam tuyet dii vi kh6i lugng CO khd sir dung (kg/con bo sua ngay);
THL Chi so nhiet dm trung binh ngdy, (THI> 72) Chi s6 THI dugc xdc djnh theo cong thicc
THl=tkh6+0,36tdi6msLrcmg+41,2, (2)
Vdi tkha -Nhiet do kh6ng khi; tdi^m suong-Nhiet do diem suong;
Mire gidm sdn lupng sica dugc tinh theo phuang trinh:
M.DEC =-1,075 - 1,736NL + 0,02474(NL)
*(TH1); (3) Trong do:
M.DEC- Miic giam san lugng siia thuc ti (kg/con bo ngay); NL - Mue san lugng trung binh chuan (kg/eon ngay) ; THI - Chi s6 nhiet
am trung binh ngay
- Ty le thy thai ciia trau, bo va cac gia siic khac:
CR= 388,3-4,62THI; (4) Trong dd:
CR- Ty le thy thai; THI -Ty s6 nhietj dm trung binh ngay, (THI > 69)
Muc gidm sdn lugng trung cda gd mdi tinh theo cdng thicc:
Egg = 0,556 + 0,0389 tjb 0,00179 t ^db -0,0000186 t \ b , (5) Trong dd:
Egg - S6 qua tning cua I con ga mai de qua /con/ngay (tinh cho ga mai Rhode cd trong lugng la 2,25kg); Tjb - Nhiet dp khdng khi tinh theo nhiet biiu khd ( 55 Tdb < 30'^C);
Miic tang trgng cua ga thit tinh theo phuong trinh:
BADG =-6,338 * 1 0 - H 1,963 *10-^(Wi + 3,055 10"^ (THI)
.2,521*10-^THl)^9,061*10-^THl*W^-(6) Trong do:
BADG- Tang trong trung binh ngay cda 1 con ga CO trong lupng tii 0,5 -1,5kg (kg/con
Trang 6ngay); w- Trgng lugng cua 1 con ga (kg/con);
THI - Chi s6 nhiet dm tnmg binh ngay
(THI > 70)
e) Tiiu chi ve dgc tinh sinh hpe cug sdu benh
hgi cdy trdng vdt nudi
Mu6n phong trir sau, benh ed hieu qua khdng
nhfing phai nam viing dac tinh sinh v$t hgc eua
timg loai sau, b?nh ma cdn phai biet t6 hgp cae
yiu t6 khi h^u ed anh hudng den su phat sinh,
phat trien va lay lan cua chiing Dudi day la mgt
so vi du ciia mgt s6 loai sau benh:
Sau due than liia (cdn gpi la sau budai 2 cham)
Chi tieu khi tugng n6ng nghiep thich bgp:
- Tning nd rat t6t d nhiet dp 25 - 290C va do
dm kh6ng khi la 90 -100%;
SSu non phat trien cham khi nhiet do 30
-360C, nhi^t dg <120C sau non ngimg phat trien;
- Vdng đi trung binh mgt liia ve miia nong
1^ 38 - 64 ngay va miia lanh la đ - 82 ngaỵ
R^y ndu
- Chi deu khi tugng nong nghiep thich hgp:
rdy nau phat trien thich hgp nhat d nhiet dp 22
-28 C va dp am 80 - 85%; co nhieu ngay mua
ray nau phat trien tdt
- Vdng đi trung binh mgt lua ray tir 25 - 30
ngaỵ Ray nau co kha nang boat dgng d nhiet dp
tir 18 - 36°C, d nhiet do 20**C thi thdi gian rdy
cai de tning tdi 30 ngay, nguge lai d nhiet do 28
- SỐC ray cai de tning trong vdng cd 15-18
ngaỵ Moi ray cai co the de 150 - 350 tning
D0c diem cua mpt so b§nh
B?nh dao 6n {Piricularia oryzae)
Chi tieu khi tugng n6ng nghiep: nhiet do
thieh hgp cho nam benh phat trien la 24 - 280C,
dm d0 la 90 -100% Nhiet dp dudi 180C va tren
300C deu khong thich hgp cho benh phat trien,
am dp trung binh ciia khdng khi dudi 90% nam
phat trien cham
Ngoai ra con mgt so sau benh khac nhu: sau
cuon la, sau gai, benh bac la Ida, benh Iiia
von va d moi loai cay khac nhau co mgt loai
sau b?nh khac nhau nhu: sau edn la ng6, sau due
than ng6, sau xam co hai cho nhiiu loai cay
tr6ng, sau loang hai bdng, sau dye than ca phẹ
benh đm la ngo, benh thdi do bap ngo, benh loet cam quyt, benh gi sat ca phẹ [15]
J) To hgp cdc yeu to khi hdu di gidm sdt sdu benh hgi cdy trdng vdt nuoi
M6i mpt loai sau benh co nhiing yeu cau rieng ve dieu kien khi hau nong nghiep Sy sinh trudng va phat trien eiia cdn trimg phy thupc co ban vao cae yeu t6 khi hau nong nghiep (Nhiet
dp va am dp khdng khi) Trong dieu kien thich hgp, chiing phat trien rat nhanh trong mgt thdi gian rat ngan
De giam sat dieu kien khi hau ndng nghiSp đi vdi su phat sinh phat trien eiia benh dao on lay lan tren liia d đng bang sdng Hong va dong bdng s6ng Cim Long da sd dyng cae chl tieu sau day:
- Thich hgp eho dao on phat trien khi nhiet dp trung binh 24 - 2 8 ^ va dp dm khong khi > 90%;
- It thich hgp khi rihiet dp trung binh < 24°C va>28''C,dpdm<90%;
- Tuong doi thieh hgp d cae t6 hgp khi hau khac
- Doi vdi ray nau, sy phat sinh va phat trien trong dieu kien khi hau n6ng nghiep nhu sau: -^Thich hgp khi nhiet do trung binh 25 30°C, dp dm tucmg dii 85 - 90%;
- it thich hgp khi nhiet do < 25''C va >30"C,
do dm trung binh <85% va > 90%;
-^ Tuong đi thich hgp la d cac to hgp khi hau n6ng nghiep khac ngoai 216 hgp tren.[15]
2.2 Cac tieu chi ve thien tai doi vdi thuy lyi, diem nghiep va cc sd ha tang nong thon
D6i vdi thuy Igi, diem nghiep ed the dugc xem nhu nhiing eo sd ha tang ndng th6n, do la
CO sd vat chat vo eo, khae hoan toan vdi cac đi tugng cua san xuat Nong, Lam va Ngu nghiep
da phan la nhiing vat the hum cọ
Tac dpng ciia bien doi khi hau den Co sd hei tang ndng thon dugc nhan dien qua cac dang nhu: Lam thay doi tien do va thdi gian thi c6ng; Lam hu hong va giam tu6i thp cac c6ng trinh;
An mdn cac c6ng trinh ven bien; Tang miic dp pha hoai lam hu hong cong trinh khi lii lyt xay
ra thudng xuyen han, manh hon, thdi gian ngap lau ban; Pha buy va Iam hu hong cong trinh kenh muong ngi dong khi mua bao cudng dg
Trang 7idn xay ra ke ea cac cdng trinh thiiy lgi va diem
nghiep; Chi phi xay dung tang; Chi phi sira
chiia thudng xuyen tang
Cho nen, co duge nhimg thdng tin khi hau, va
cac tieu chi dinh lugng ciia chiing va cac Men
tugng khi hau cyc doan nhu nhiet do qua cao hay
qua thdp, mua ldn, bao, ap thap nhiet ddi gay lii
lyt, Iii quet, lu ong, sat Id dat, ban ban, gio tay kho
nong, nude bien dang, xam nhap man, tir qua khu
va hien tai cimg vdi kich ban BDKH, nude bien
dang doi vdi timg viing sinh thai deu la eac thdng
tin quan trgng doi vdi quy hgach, ke hoach xay
dung ca sd ha tdng nong th6n.[15]
a) Suphdn bo bao vd ^ thdp nhiet ddi a cde vimg
Khu vyc Quang Ninh den Ha TTnh (vT dp
22 - 18°), bao va ATND bdt ddu tu thang V va
ket thiic vao thang XII Bao tap trung vao thang
VIII (19%) sau din thang IX va thang VII S6
lupng bao d6 bg vao khu vuc nay chiem gan 1/2
tong s6 bao do bp vao Viet Nam (48,4%);
Khu vyc tif Quang Binh den Quang Nam
-Da Nang (vT tuyin 18 - 16°) bao bdt ddu tir
thang V din thang XI Bao tap trung vao thang
IX, sau do din thang X va thang VIII T6ng s6
bao d6 bp vao vimg nay ehiim 19,7% so vdi
t6ng so bao dd bg vao Viet Nam;
Khu vyc Quang Ngai den Phii Yen (vT tuyin
16 - 14**) bao bdt dau tir thang IV va kit thiic vao
thang XII Bao tap trung vao thang X, sau din
thang XI va thang DC T6ng s6 bao di bp vao khu
vyc nay la 15,7% so vdi tdng s6 bao vao Viet Nam;
Khu vyc Khanh Hoa den Binh Thuain (vT
tuyen 14 - ll''), Bao bdt ddu tir thang III din
thang XII, bao tap trung vao thang XI, sau dd
din thang X va thang XII S6 can bao di bg vao
khu vuc nay chiim 12,2% ting s6 cac can bao
d6 bg vao Viet Nam;
Khu vyc tir Ba Ria Viing Tau den Nam Bo s6
can bao di bg vao khu vyc nay chi chiim 4% trong
tong s6 eon bao d6 bg vao Viet Nam Miia bao bdt
ddu tir diang VIII din cuii thang XU, bao tap trung
vao thang XI, sau din thang X va thang XII
b)Tieu chi khd hgn lien quan din chdy rieng
vd cdc cong trinh thuy lgi
Nguy CO chay rimg cua mpt ngay dugc xac dinb theo cdng thirc cua V.G Nesterop: P>.=^Zt„3''d„3 (7)
Trong dd:
^^' la chi tieu khi tugng ting hgp tinh eho ngay thii i, K la he s6 co gia tri bdng 1 khi lugng mua ngay thu i nho ban 5mm, va cd gia tri bang
0 khi lugng mua ngay ldn hem hoac bang 5mm, tii3 la nhiet do kh6ng khi Iiic 13 gid ngay thii i ("^C), d,i3 la dp hut bao hoa do am kh6ng khi liic
13 gid ngay thu i (mb), n la sd ngay khdng mua ho$c CO mua nhung nhd hon 5 mm ke tir ngay cu6i ciing co lugng mua ldn ban 5 mm
Ngay ma ^^ tu 7500 - 10000 dugc gpi la ngay
p
cd nguy co chay cao, Ngay ma si Idn han 10000 dugc gpi la ngay cd nguy co chay rat cao Nguy
CO chay rimg ciia mgt thang dugc xac dinh theo s6 ngay co nguy co chay eao va rat cao
Can cd vao sd ngay cd nguy ca chay rimg cao, tien hanh phan cap nguy co chay rung cho mdi dia phuang nhu sau:
Bang 2 Cdp nguy cff chay rimg xac djnh theo
so ngay co nguy co" chay cao [7]
TT
1
2
3
4
5
So ngay co nguy CO chay cao tren thang
<2 2-6 7-10 11-15
>15
dp
nguy ccchay
I
11 III
IV
V
Mi^c nguy cff chay
It kha nang chay Nguy CO chay thip Nguy CO ch^ tnmg binh Nguy CO chay cao Nguy CO chay rit cao Tieu chi nay khong chi ap dung cho chay rimg ma con ap dung cho viec dinh gia cac cip han doi vol cac cong trinh thuy lgi va h8 chiia phuc vu cac cong trinh tuoi nuoc cho nong nghiep va sinh boat a nong thon ,v.v
c) Cdc lieu chi ddi vai diem nghiep vd co sa
hg Idng ndng Ihdn
Tieu chi vi chi phi tang them trong quan ly
van hanh cong trinh
Trang 8/rf = : ^ 1 0 0 % ; (8)
Trong do:
D - Chi phi quan Iy van hanh edng trinh co sd
ha tdng n6ng nghiep va nong thon trong giai doan
BDKH (d); Dij- Chi phi quan ly van banh cdng
tririh CO sd ha tdng n6ng nghiep va n6ng th6n thdi
k>' nin (d); fa - Ty le thay ddi phat smh khi c6 tac
dpng cua BDKH trong giai doan tinh toan
Chi tieu: fd <20% tdc dpng thdp; fd=20-50%
tdc dpng trung binh; fd>50% tae dpng mgnh
Tieu chi ve ehi phi xay dyng tang them
Chi phi nay tang them trong qua trinh xay
dyng eong trinh, do thay doi tuyen, keo dai
thdi gian thi cdng; ket cau thay d6i
^ = : ^ ^ : ^ ^ 1 0 0 % ; (11)
A = ^ ^ ^ 1 0 0 % ; (9)
Kt
Trong do:
Kt - Chi phi xay dyng tang them do tac dpng
cua BDKH (d); Ky - Chi phi xay dyng cdng
trinh co sd ha tang n6ng nghiep va n6ng th6n
yong thdi ky nin (1980-1999) (d)
fk -Ty le thay ddi phat sinh khi co tac dgng
ciia BDKH trong giai doan tinh toan
Chi tieu:/* <20% tdc dgng thdp; fk=20-50%
tdc dpng trung binh;fk>50% tdc dpng mgnh
Tieu ehi ve eo che chinh sach
Chi phi nay tang them do dao tao nang eao
nSng lyc trong quan ly van hanh, duy tu bao
dudng edng trinh co sd ha tang nong nghiep va
ndng th6n do tac dgng cua bien doi khi hau
/o = ^^Z^100%; (10)
Oe
Trong do:
Oc- Chi phi cho nhu cau dao tao, nang eao
nang lyc, cac chuang trinh phdng chong giam nhe
thien tai do BDKH xay ra trong vimg; Oy- Chi phi
cho cac boat dgng tucmg tu trong thdi ky nen
(1980-1999) (d); fo-Ty Ie thay dii phat sinh khi co
tac dgng cua BDKH trong giai do£m tinh toan
Chi tieu: fo <20% tdc dpng thdp; f^=20-50%
tdc dpng trung binh; fo>50% tdc dpng mgnh
Tieu chi ve chi phi sira chira cdng trinh khac
phuc h|iu qua tac dpng ciia tai bien khi hau
Chi phi nay tang them do khde phyc hau qua
thien tai bat thudng den he thing cdng trinh ca
sd ha tang ndng nghiep va nong thon
Psc
Trong do:
Psc- Chi phi eho cac boat dgng khac phyc do tac dgng ciia bien doi khi hau;
Pij- Chi phi phong ehong, xu ly ung eiru trong thien tai, bien doi khi hau ciia cong trinh i, nam thuj;
Pi- Chi phi cho cac boat dpng tuong ty trong thdi ky nin (1980-1999) (d);
fp- Ty le thay ddi phat sinh khi cd tac dgng ciia BDKH trong giai doan tinh toan
Chi tieu:^ <20% tdc dpng thdp; fp=20-50%
tdc dpng trung binh; fp>50% tdc dpng mgnh
Gia tri xay dyng quy ddi theo thdi gian ciia nam 2010, de biet chi tiet ban cua cac tieu chi nay co the tham khao trong tai lieu [14] KET LUAN
Ket qua nghien ciiu budc dau v^ xay dyng tieu chi long ghep tich hgp BDKH vao quy hoach, ke hoach san xuat ndng nghiep cap xa phue vy xay dyng ndng thdn mdi cd the nit ra mgt sd ket luan, sau day:
- Cac ddi tugng cua san xuat ndr^ nghiep la cay trdng vat nudi va moi cay trdng vat nudi ed yeu cau rat khae nhau ddi vdi cae yeu td khi hau Ddng thdi trong qua tiinh sinh trudng, phat trien va hinh thanh nang suat cay trong v$t nudi ludn ehiu tac dgng tryc tiep hoae gian tiep cua cac yeu td khi hau va thien tai Bdi vay BDKH, NBD se anh hudng rat ldn den cac doi tugng cua san xuat ndng nghiep
- Nhixng yeu td khi hau ve nhiet do eac Ioai, lugng mua cac cap, nude bien dang theo viing, ket hgp vdi cac thien tai thudng xuat hien d cac vimg sinh thai se la cac tieu chi dang tin cay de long ghep BDKH vao xay dyng quy hoach, ke hoaeh san xuat ndng nghiep cap xa
- Tir cac tieu chi da dugc xay dung de long ghep BDKH cae tac gia da dua ra 5 budc ciia qua trinh long ghep BDKH vao quy hoach, ke hoach san xuat ndng nghiep cap xa phyc vy xay dyng ndng thon mdi d Viet Nam Ciing Cd the khdng dinh day la phuong phap tiep can thdng minh (khdn ngoan) trong thieh ung vdi BDKH
va giam nhe thien tai ciia nganh Nong nghiep
va phat trien ndng thdn trong thdi ky cdng nghiep hda va hien dai hda dat nude;
Trang 9D6i vol cac ca so ha tang nong thon:
nhiing tieu chi khi sil dung 16ng ghep BDKH
cin dugc xem xet la tac dong ciia BDKH, NBD
se lam thay dii tiin dp va thai gian thi cong bi
keo dai, lam hu hong va giam tuoi thg cong
trinh, tang do sau va cuong do ngap lut cac cong
trinh co so ha ting nong thon; Tang mii-c do pha
hai, lam hu hong cong trinh kenh muong ngi
ding khi bao, lii lut xay ra; an mon cac cong
trinh ven biin; chi phi xay dung tang, chi phi
sira chira tang,
Nhin chung day la mgt phan cua mgt tai lieu
moi trong long ghep BDKH vai san xuiit nong
nghiep cap xa, rat bo ich cho cac nha quan ly
chi dao san xuat Nong nghiep va xay dung co so
ha tang nong thon 6 Trung uong va dia phuang
tren buac duong long ghep BDKH vao quy
hoach timg doi tugng san xuat Nong nghiep va
xay dung ca so ha tang nong thon mai cap xa
doi vol timg vimg sinh thai nong nghiep
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1 Bg Nong nghiep va Phat trien nong thon
(MARD), 2011, Tich hgp biin dii khi hau vao
xay dung, thirc hien chien luge, quy hoach, ki
hoach, chuang trinh, du an, di an phat triin
nganh nong nghiep va phat trien nong thon giai
d o ^ 2011-2015, , Chi thi Bo NN&PTNT si
809/CT-BNN-KHCN ngay 28/3/2011;
2 Bg Nong nghiep va Phat triin nong
thon Quyet dinh phe duyet di an phat triin
tring trgt din 2020 va tim nhin din 2030
s i : 824/QD-BNN-TT,//d Npi, ngdy 16 Ihdng
4 ndm 2012;
3 Bg Tai nguyen va Mgi trucmg (MONRE),
2008, Chuang trinh muc tieu quic gia ling pho
voi bien doi khi hau;
4 Bg Tai nguyen va Moi truong (MONRE),
2009, 2012, Kich ban biin dii khi hau, nuoc
bien dang cho Viet Nam
5 s i tay long ghep giam nhe nii ro tham hga
va thich ling BDKH vao lap ki hoach phat triin
kinh ti -xa hgi cip xa, CCWG, DMWG, Oxfam,
Ha Ngi thang 1 Inawm 2011, 62Tr
6 So tay huong dan ling ghep giam nhe rui
ro thien tai vao ke hoach phat trien KT-XH cip
tinh, cac nganh tai tinh An giang An giang thang 9- 2010, 76 Tr
7 Ting Cue Lam nghiep, 2013, Danh gia tac dgng, xac dinh cac giai phap img pho, xay dimg
va trien khai cac ke hoach hanh dgng img pho vol BDKH trong ITnh vuc Lam nghiep; Bao cao ting ket de tai cap Bg nam 2013;
8 Truong Dai hgc Thiiy lgi, 2013, Danh gia tac d6ng, xac dinh cac giai phap ung pho, xay dung va triin khai cac ke hoach hanh dgng img pho vol BDKH trong cac linh vuc dien nghiep, Thuy lgi.; Bao cao tong ket de tai cap Bg nam 2013;
9 Vien Chan nuoi 2013, Dieu tra, danh gia tac dgng cua BDKH toi chan nuoi va phong trir dich benh, de xuat cac giai phap thich irng; Bao cao tong ket de tai cap Bg nam 2013;
10 Vien Khoa hgc Khi tugng Thiiy van va Moi truang (IMHEN), 2011, Tai lieu huang dan Danh gia tac dgng ciia bien doi khi hau va xac dinh cac bien phap thich ung, Nha Xuit ban Tai nguyen - Moi trucmg va Ban do Viet Nam
11 Vien Khoa hgc Khi tugng Thuy van va Moi truang (IMHEN), 2012, Huong dan ky thuat ve tich hgp van de bien doi khi hau vao ki hoach phat triin Nha Xuit ban Tai nguyen -Moi truang va Ban di Viet Nam
12 Vien Kinh ti va Quy hoach thuy san,
2013, Danh gia tinh trang dl bi tin thuang vol BDKH trong nong nghiep lam co sa xay dung cac chinh sach va hoat dgng hi trg ; Bao cao ting kit di tai cip Bg nam 2013;
13 Vien Moi truong nong nghiep, 2013 Danh gia tac dgng cua BDKH, xac dinh cac giai phap ling pho, xay dung va triin khai cac ke hoach hanh dgng ling pho vol BDKH trong cac linh vuc Ngng nghiep, Thuy san Bao cao ting ket de tai cip Bg nam 2013
14 Vien Nuac, Tuai tieu va Moi truong;2013, Danh gia anh huang cua BDKH den he thing ca sa ha ting nong nghiep, nong thon va de xuit cac giai phap giam thiiu;Bao cao tong kit de tai cip Bg nam 2013
Phin biin: PGS.TS NGUYEN QUANG TRUNG
-Vien KHTL Vijt Nam