Giới thiệu các phương pháp định lượng lợi ích trong đầu tư giảm thiểu rủi ro ngập lụt

Doi tugng chju tac dgng dnh hudng eua ngdp lut khd da dgng, bao thS cimg mgt loai thigt hai ta cd nhiSu phuong phdp ude lugng tinh todn, diSu nay tdy thuoc vao mdc do chi tiSt va tam qua

GlOfI THIEU CAC PHlTOfNG P H A P DJNH LlTgfNG LOI ICH

TRONG DAU TU" GIAM THIEU RUI RO N G A P L ^ T

Nguyin ThiSn Dung^; Nguyen Quang Kim^; Nguyen Thu Hi^n

Tdm tat: Viit Nam dugc xdc dinh la ndm trong viing chiu nhiiu thi?t hgi do thien tai, trong do

^gdp lut la mdt logi hinh thien tai phd biin nhdt Hdng ndm ngdp lut gdy ra rdt nhieu thiit hgi vi ngu&i, tdi sdn, co sa hg tdng, kinh ti, dnh hu&ng xa hgi vd phd hdy mdi tru&ng, do do ddu tu vdo cdc cdng trinh phdng chong vd gidm nhe rui ro nggp lut da vd dang la mot trong nhitng uu tiin hdng ddu cita Nhd nu&c trong viec bdo vi tinh mgng vd tdi sdn cua nhdn ddn Vdn di ddt ra Id cdc

du dn cd thuc sic hiiu qud vd ddm bdo bin virng rdi ro trong diiu kiin han hep ciia ngudn vdn ngdn sdch ddu tu Do do cdn phdi ddnh gid hieu qud ddu tu cdc du dn mgt cdch nghiim tdc vd cdn trgng tic giai dogn quy hogch din giai dogn lap die dn ddu tu Nghiin cieu ndy se trinh bdy khdi qudt cde phuangphdp dfnh lugng cdc logi thiit hgi do ngdp lut di ldm co so phdn tieh ddnh gid hiiu qud ddu tu cdng trinh phong chdng vd gidm nhe rui ro nggp lut

T u khoa: Rui ro ngdp lyt, hieu qud ddu tu, dinh lugng, gidm thieu rui ro

1 M O DAU

Viet Nam nam frong vung nhiet ddi gio mua,

la mpt frong nhihig nude thuge Chdu A Thdi Binh

Duong noi chju anh hudng nang nS do thudng

xuyen phdi ddi mat vdi nhiSu loai hinh thien tai

khoe liet Trung binh hdng nam, ude tinh thigt

hai do thiSn tai gdy ra eho nen kinh tS tuang

duong khodng 1-1.5%GDP (World Bank, 2010)

Theo Ludt phdng chdng thien tai (33/

2013/QH13), thiSn tai dugc dinh nghia la hien

tugng tu nhien bdt thudng cd thS gdy thiet hai

vS ngudi, tai sdn, mdi trudng, dieu kien s6ng vd

cdc hoat dgng kinh te - xd hdi

Khi nhdc dSn eae rui ro thien tai, thi rui ro

ngap lut dugc xem Id mgt trong nhihig rui ro

phd bi^n nhdt eung nhu dnh hudng thiet hgi to

ldn vS ngudi vd tai san nhu cac tinh miSn

Trung, mgt so do rhj ldn nhu thanh ph6 Hd Chi

Minh, Ha Ngi, VTnh Phuc Hang ndm, mgt

ngudn ngan sdch nha nude rdt ldn dugc ddnh

ddu tu vao c6ng tdc phdng chdng va gidm nhg

rui ro ngdp lut, ey thS la cac dy an liSn quan din

quy hoach tiSu thodt lii, cac edng trinh bdo ve

phdng chdng vd gidm nhe rui ro ngap lut

' Truang Dgi hge Thuy l<?i

D d i v d i m g t q u d e g i a d a n g p h a t triSn n h u

V i e t N a m , d u n g t r u d c rdt n h i e u v a n d e edn phdi gidi quySt, c d n p h d i d a n h n g d n sdch ddu t u n g o d i

g i a m t h i e u rui r o vS thiSn tai c d n phdi d a u t u

e h o e o s d h g t a n g , a n n i n h q u o c p h d n g , y t e v a gido d y e V i v g y d d i v d i e a c d y a n d a u t u g i d m

t h i e u rui r o t h i e n tai n o i c h i m g v d rui r o n g d p l u t

n d i rieng e d n phdi d u g c x e m x e t v d tinh t o a n

m g t e a c h c a n t h a n d y a trSn p h a n t i c h d a n h gid

d a y d u h i g u q u d d a u t u d a m b d o s d d y n g n g u d n

v ^ n m g t c d c h toi u u v d h i e u q u d nhdt DS d a n h

gid d u g e d a y d u h i e u q u d k i n h xk c u a c a c d y a n

d d u t u p h d n g t r a n h v a g i a m n h e rui r o c a n e d

n h i e u tiep c g n , p h u a n g p h a p p h d n t i c h ddnh gid

d a m u c tieu, p h u o n g p h d p p h d n t i c h c h i p h i h i g u

q u a ( C B A ) , P h u o n g p h a p p h a n t i c h tdi u u rui

r o d e ddnh gid h i g u q u d d d u t u d u dn TrSn t h e

g i d i p h u a n g p h d p C B A v i n d u g c s d d u n g n h u

m d t c d n g e y e h u y e u frong m d td v a tinh t o a n

c h i p h i v d lgi i e h e d a cdc quySt d i n h ddu t u

m a n g t i n h ddu t u e o n g ( M e c h l e r , 2 0 1 6 ) P h u o n g

p h a p C B A c u n g d u g e s d d u n g t r o n g p h d n t i c h

g i d m t h i e u riii r o thiSn tai frong cdc linh v y e

c d n g tgi M y , A u s f r a l i a v d nhiSu n u d e k h a c ( K r a m e r , 1 9 9 5 ; M e c h l e r , 2 0 0 5 )

dugc hiSu chinh la phdn thiet hgi gidm di do ddu anh hudng huu hinh hay vd hinh md cd nhung

tu dy dn Do dd dS cd thS tinh todn phdn lgi ich phuong phdp udc lugng phu hop

sd dung frong phdn tich chi phi lgi ich cda dy Doi vdi moi loai hinh thiet hai khdc nhau s6

dn, can phdi tinh todn ddy du thiSt hai cda nggp xdc djnh ra mgt sd phuong phdp dung dl udc lut trude vd sau khi cd dy dn Trong nghien cdu lugng eac thiet hgi khdc nhau, nhung cdng cd nay chi phi frong phdn tich hiSu qua ddu tu

chinh la cdc chi phi ddu tu, qudn 1^ van hdnh,

sua chiia vd dai tu cua edng trinh phong chong

va gidm nhe thiSn tai duge mac djnh la biSt vi

viec tinh toan la tudng minh vd de dang, theo

cac quy dinh hign hdnh Doi tugng chju tac

dgng dnh hudng eua ngdp lut khd da dgng, bao

thS cimg mgt loai thigt hai ta cd nhiSu phuong phdp ude lugng tinh todn, diSu nay tdy thuoc vao mdc do chi tiSt va tam quan trgng eiing nhu anh hudng ldn den lgi ich cua dy dn dau tu giam thiSu rdi ro ngdp lyt (vi dy: ddi vdi thigt heii ndng nghiSp ed thS se udc lugng thdng qua cac phuang phap nhu, phuong phdp thay ddi diSn gdm ed dgng tdc ddng true tiSp vd gidn tiSp, td tich; phuong phdp thay ddi nSng suat; d6i \ logi hinh thiSt hai hihi hinh den thiet hai vd thiet hai liSn quan den sde khde con ngudi c6 hinh, do d6 cdn thiSt phdi hg thdng ddy du eac thS do ludng thdng qua phuang phdp th6ng ke phuang phdp djnh lugng, udc lugng tiSn te hda ve chi phi phyc hdi, chi phi co hdi do khong cde thiet hgi cda cdc d6i tugng fren tham gia qud trinh san xudt cua bdn than nguoi

2 CO S 6 L ^ L U i ^ bj anh hudng sdc khde, con Id chi phi ca hgi 2.1 Phur<mg phap nghien cdu rui ro ngap tham gia sdn xudt ddi vdi nhihig ngudi cham lyt soc kSm theo, hoac su dyng phuang phdp diSu

tra phdng vdn danh gia ngau nhien dp dirng ddi vdi cdc ngudi dan )

Trudc khi udc lugng thiet hai cdn phdi nhdn

dgng va phdn loai dugc cdc ddi tugng chiu thiet

- So ngircri

n l v o n g ;

- S6 ngirM

b i thuonfc;

- S o ngiriri

m a t tich

d u j m g ;

- N h a cini;

- l l ^ U l o i i e

- C!hi ti£u

cAy i r ^ e ;

- Clii ti£u - Siin xufil

c o n g ngliiijp

- M O i

InrfmB 6

nhiSm;

- C 6 n g trinh Clip

n u 6 c bj h u

- P P d i i u

ink t i l i n g

- P P c h i

k h 6 c :

- PP c h i

P P ihay suAt, thay

<t>>i di$ii

P P d i i u tra t h o n g

P P tlwy dtii nAtig NuAi;

- P P t h a y Ih^:

- i'P d i e u tra t)lAn£

- P P chi

phi CO h$i

- P P c h i ph( p h g c li^i;

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- T J i i s B T i B i a

- C P s i r a

c h t t u :

- C P p h O n g : h 6 n g :

- C P v g s i n h

m d i trufnig

- P P d i e u IT^, t h o n g

kS:

- P P d i i u

I r a d A n h

11.1A ngSu

- P P C P CO Ii9i:

- p p C P

p h v 1)6 i:

- P P C P

t h u y U)^

- P P dieu tra, t h d n g

ke;

- P P di^u

g i a n g f i u

Hinh I.Sadd khdi phdn logi thiit hgi vd phuang phdp u&c lugng thi$t hgi

mdt each ddnh gid kinh tS eda nii ro nggp lut, dS

cd thS lugng hda dugc cdc thi$t hgi kinh tS do

ngdp lyt gdy ra cd the su dyng nhiSu phuong

phap khde nhau nhung dugc chia idm hai nhdm

chinh dd Id nhdm danh gid true tiSp vd nhdm

danh gia gidn tiSp

2.2 Cac phiromg p h a p dinh lu-yng true tiep

Cdc phuong phdp ddnh gia trye tiSp dugc sd

dyng de ddnh gid thiet hai vgt eh^t hihi hinh vd

cdc thigt hai do thudng ed gid trj thj frudng dd la

phuang phap thay ddi ndng sudt, phuang phdp

chi phi sue khde, phuong phdp chi phi co hgi,

phuang phdp chi phi phdng ngda, phuang phdp

chi phi thay the

2.2.1 Phucmg phdp thay ddi nang sudt

Phuong phap ndy thudng su dyng de tinh

todn thiet hgi do ngdp lut trong ndng nghigp,

ldm nghiep, thuy sdn tdc nhdn ciia nggp lyt cd

ths lam gidm san lugng ndng sdn thu hoach d

nhung noi bj dnh hudng trye tiSp, nd ciing cd

the lam gidm nang suat canh tdc thyc tS Ngap

lut lam anh hudng den qud trinh sinh trudng cda

cdc loai eay frdng ndng sdn, dnh hudng den chat

lugng nude do bj d nhiem ddi vdi ngdnh thuy

sdn Mgt sy thay ddi phgm vi ngdp, ehieu sdu

ngdp sS Idm thay doi ySu td, cdc hinh thai cua

cdc ySu td ddu vdo eua sdn xudt ciing nhu hgn

chS khd nang phdt triSn vd sinh trudng cua dgng

thyc vdt ttong vimg bj ng|ip, ldm han che su lua

ehgn san xudt ndng nghidp, ciing nhu cdc quyet

djnh ddu tu san xudt eua ngudi ddn trong vung

bj dnh hudng eda nglip

Anh hudng cua ngdp lyt dugc xem nhu mgt

ySu td mdi trudng dnh hudng den qua trinh sinh

trudng, qud trinh sdn xudt, qud trinh quyet djnh

ddu tu md rgng, do do xem xet dnh hudng thigt

hgi cua ngdp lyt xem nhu Id nghien cihi mdi

quan he giiia biSn chdt lugng mdi trudng va

muc sdn lugng de xem xet va so sanh, dy dodn

vS ngudn lgi thu vS hay mat di cua lgi nhugn sdn

xudt khi cd sy thay doi v^ phgm vi ngdp vd

chiSu sdu ng|ip, mde do d nhiem mdi trudng do

ngdp lut DS sd dyng phuong phap thay d6i

ndng sudt ddi hdi phai cd sy phdn tich vS quy

trinh sinh hge, khd ndng cdng nghe, khd nang

ddi vdi quySt djnh sdn xudt vd dnh hudng eda sy thay doi kSt qua sdn xuat tdi phuc lgi chung cda toan xa hdi

Ddi vdi ndng nghiep thi anh hudng khdng chi

d phdn di^n tich bi ngdp khdng thS canh tdc ma cdn d ch5 phdn dign tfeh ddt da eanh tdc bj nggp lam gidm sdn lugng do giam ndng suat, vd mdc

dg gidm n ^ g suat eiing khdc nhau theo dg sau cua nggp, theo phgm vi d nhilm ngudn nude DS xdc djnh chi tiSt thigt hgi nay dya trSn ham gidm sdn ndng suat ddi vdi cdc dd sdu ngdp khdc nhau,

tu dd tinh todn thigt hgi do gidm ndng sudt vd giam sdn Iugng DS ddnh gid thiSt hai ve kinh te cua ngdnh ndng nghiSp, phuong phap thay ddi nang sudt de tinh todn su chenh lech lgi ich tu viec san xuat ndng nghiep, ehan nudi thdy hdi sdn trudc vd sau khi xdy ra nggp lyt

2.2.2 Phmmg phdp chiphi cah^i

P h u a n g p h d p c h i p h i c o h g i Id p h u o n g p h d p

k h o n g d o l u d n g s y t h a y d d i lgi i c h c u a n g ^ p lut

m a t h a y v a o d d u d c l u g n g lgi ieh e u a n h i i n g

b o a t dOng nSu n h u k h d n g c d n g d p lyt x d y ra, ddy Id p h u a n g p h a p q u a n frgng frong l y a c h g n

r a quySt djnh P h u a n g p h a p n a y t h u d n g d u g c s u

d y n g t r o n g v i e c l y a c h g n e a c d u dn e d lien q u a n

d e n m d i t r u d n g P h u c m g p h d p n a y d u g e s d d y n g

d d i v d i c a c d d i t u g n g , k h u v y c c d n h i e u l y a

c h g n k h d c n h a u frong v i g e p h d t t r i e n v d i p h u a n g

dn tiSn h d n h k h a i t h d c v a s d d y n g "CAi phi ca

hdi cua mgt hogt ddng la lgi ieh cao nhdt trong cdc hogt dgng thay thi bf mdt di khi tiin hdnh hogl ddng dd " N h i i n g n g u y e n tdc k h i s u d y n g

p h u a n g p h d p c h i p h i c o h g i d u g c x d c djnh t h e o

c a c b u d e sau:

Bu&c 1: X d c djnh d a n h sdch cdc hogt d g n g cd

the lya e h g n vd thirc hiSn tai n a i c a n nghien c u u

Bu&c 2: D y t i n h ISi r d n g h a y lgi ieh t h y c c u a

m o i hogt d g n g ( p h u o n g d n ) frong d a n h m y c

Buoc 3: C h i p h i c o h g i l a lgi ich c a o n h d t

d u g c d u t i n h

K h i t h y c h i g n p h u o n g p h a p p h d n t i c h chi p h i

CO h g i frong d a n h g i a thigt h a i d o n g d p lyt c u n g

c d n p h a i l u u y d o Id k h d n g d o n gidn, d o n h d n td

m d i t r u d n g ( n g a p lyt) s e h i d n h h u d n g v d t h a y

d d i e d n p h u t h u g e n h i S u v d o m d i t m d n g c h u n g

luge phdt triSn cua dja phuong ciing nhu khd

nang khai thdc eua ngudi dan Hon nda, khi tinh

toan lgi ich cua cde phuong an cdng khd ddm

bdo dugc dg chinh xac cao, do phdi du tinh, du

bdo vd cdn nhieu thdi gian vd kinh phi ddu tu

nghien euu

Ddi vdi cde nii ro nggp lyt, phuong phdp chi

phi CO hgi thudng dugc su dung tinh todn ddi

vdi eac dign tich dat dugc chuySn ddi muc dich

khi md gidi quyet dugc bai toan ngdp lut, hoSc

ban ehS nggp lyt thi gidi quyet duge bai toan d

nhiSm mdi trudng, Idm tang khd nang cdnh quan

vd gid trj tinh thdn sdc khde, cho ngudi dan

s6ng true tiSp frong pham vi dd, din dSn gid trj

ddt dai duge ndng ISn, thuc ddy phdt trien sdn

xuat, kinh doanh djch vu

Phuong phdp chi phi co hgi eiing dugc su

dung dS tinh todn thigt hgi sdn phdm cua con

ngudi do bi mSc cdc bSnh lien quan den d nhiem

moi trudng do ngdp lyt, ldm sut gidm khd nSng

lam vige, thiet hgi do phdi danh then gian ndm

vien dieu trj, ngudi nha bgnh nhan phdi bd thdi

gian lao ddng sdn xudt de phuc vy chdm soc

ngudi than trong viSn hoSic tinh todn cho thiet hgi

do thiet hai td vong sinh mang thdng qua dong

gop vdo gid trj sdn xudt hang ndm eua ngudi do

cho toan xd hgi (Thong thudng dya fren GDP

binh quan ddu ngudi cua vung nghiSn cdu)

2.2.3 Phucfng phdp chi phi sire khoe

Khi danh gid ve dnh hudng dSn sue khoe cua

ngap lyt, thi ngodi eac van de thuong tich, chan

thuong do bj lu cu6n, do bj nude ngap, cdn cd

nhung anh hudng do mdi trudng bj d nhiSm bao

gdm khdng khi vd nguOn nude sinh hogt bj d

nhiem Do do do ludng thigt hgi sdc khoe do

thuang tich vd benh tgt bdi dnh hudng d nhiSm

nguon nude vd mdi trudng la cdng vige quan

trgng ciia cac nha kinh tS mdi trudng DS do

ludng duge gid trj thigt hgi lien quan dSn sdc

khde con ngudi can phdi tiSn hanh nghiSn euu

mgt cdch can th|in vd ty my, ddng thdi phdi biSt

each tdeh nhihig tdc ddng khdc ISn sue khde eon

ngudi, de ldm dugc di^u nay thudng rdt khd

chinh xdc vd dam bdo dugc sy dung ddn cdn

thiSt, dOng thdi dS do ludng thigt hai cdn cd mdt

tri tai benh vien, sd ngudi khdng diSu trj tgi benh viSn nhung mdt chi phi thuOc diSu tn Trong khi tinh todn cdn thiSt phdi tdeh cdc loji benh khdng liSn quan den ngdp lyt, dl tinh toan dugc chinh xde thigt hgi do ngdp lut ISn sire khde con ngudi NSn tdng cua cdng viec danh gia ndy Id sy liSn quan giiia cdc chi phi dSn phuc hdi sdc khde do bj anh hudng cua ngdp lyt gay ra trye tiSp nhu chan thuang, b^nh truyen nhiSm do 6 nhiSm nude NghiSn cuu dugc xac djnh dya trSn ty Ig mac benh thudng xuyen d^

do ludng tde dgng eda nhimg sy cd bdt thuong,

dp dung tinh toan thiet hgi sdc kh6e eon ngu6i Hdu qua v^ sue khde dugc chia lam 2 nhom: BSnh tat va td vong

+ Chiphi do b^nh tgt

C h i p h i d o b e n h t a t s e b a o g o m c f c chi phi

c h S a b e n h , chi p h i thigt h a i d o n g h i ldm hay mit

t h d i g i a n l a m v i e e v a e h i p h i thigt h a i d o ngucri thdn phdi n g h i l d m d S c h d m s d c n g u d i benh

+ Chi phi do («• vong

C h i p h i t d v o n g t d e Id ti'nh todn thigt hai ve

n h d n m g n g d o i v d i rui r o n g d p lyt, t h d n g thudng

g i a tri n h a n m g n g Id rdt l d n k h d n g t h e do dem

b a n g tiSn, t u y n h i S n x e t v e g d c c g n h toan xa hoi

k h i m g t n h d n m g n g m d t d i , t h i c h i p h i td vong

cd thS d u g c d a n h gid b d n g c d c h x e m xet nhting

d d n g g d p k i n h t e b j m a t d i d o k h d n g cdn song

n u a T r o n g s u d t c u g e d d i l d m v i g e , mgt ngirW

cd t h e d d n g g d p v d o q u d t r i n h s a n xudt hang

h d a , d i c h v y m a x d h g i t i e u d u n g Khi moi

n g u d i bj t d v o n g n g u y S n n h a n d o : nggt nude, lu

c u o n frdi, h o d c c h d n t h u a n g n d n g dan tdi tii

v o n g frong q u d t r i n h lii, n g d p lut dien ra Khi d6, gid trj d o n g g d p e u a n g u d i t u v o n g v d i qua trinh sdn x u a t la d i m g l a i , d o d d e h d n g t a co the tinh gid trj sdn x u ^ t n g u d i d d cd thS tgo r a nSu nguoi

d d e d n s d n g B d n g c d e h s u y ludn Y m u o n thanh

t o d n ( W T P ) t r u n g b i n h t r o n g g i d m thiSu nii ro,

t a e d t h e u d c l u g n g gid tri m g t nhdn mgng, theo

t i n h t o d n gid trj t h d n g kS c u a m d t m a n g s6ng ( V S L - V a l u e o f S t a t i s t i c a l Life)

V S L = W T P x l / I O O O 0 (1)

T h e o n h d m t d e gid A m a u d R e y n a u d va M H

N g u y e n ( 2 0 1 3 ) d a s u d u n g p h u a n g phap l\ra

ciia gidm thieu rui ro lii lut, dS tinh todn dugc

gia trj thdng ke cua m^t mang sdng tgi tinh

NghS An va dugc udc lugng tu khodng 2.517

triSu VND cho dSn 3.590 trigu VND tuong

duong vdi khoang 77 l4n tdi 111 ldn gid trj thu

nhdp binh quan hdng nam cua cac hg gia dinh

tgi Nghe An Trong bdi bdo ndy, gid trj thigt hgi

vS nhdn mang ciia eon ngudi s6 duge tinh todn

frSn CO sd dp dyng nghiSn cdu trudc bang cdch

tinh trugt gid vd thu nhdp binh quan cua ngudi

ddn vung nghien cuu dS sd dyng quy doi gid trj

tuong duong vdi thdi diSm hien tai tinh todn

2.2.4 Phteangphdp tt&c lugfng bdng chiphi

thay thi

Chi phi thay the khodn tien phdi bd ra dS thay

thS mgt tai san ndo do hodc da bj hdng hoac trd

nSn loi thdi, hodc Id chi phi de phyc hdi mdi

trudng cdn thiet sau rui ro ngdp lyt Trong tdi

nguyen mdi trudng thi phuong phdp ehi phi thay

the lien quan dSn ehi phi cdn thiSt de khdi phue

lgi tdi da mdi trudng dd bj thigt hgi vd cdc chi

phi ndy dimg dS do ludng tdi da md cgng ddng

se phai chi tieu liSn quan den riii ro thiet hgi mdi

trudng Ddi vdi nhiing thigt hai HSn quan den tdi

sdn nhu co sd ha tdng, tdi san cua cdc hg gia

dinh, cac cd nhdn, cung nhu khdi phyc lgi frang

thai ban ddu cua mdi trudng edn phdi dugc tinh

todn nhu la thiet hgi do ngdp lyt Cdc bude dS

tiSn hdnh tinh todn udc lugng chi phi thay thS:

Bu&c 1: Xdc djnh cac ddi tugng tdi sdn bj

thiet hai, cdc nhdn td mdi trudng bj anh hudng

va suy gidm cdn phdi thyc hign ddu tu thay the

hodc phuc hdi frgng thai ban ddu trudc khi cd

ngdp lyt x^y ra

Buac 2: DiSu tra tmh todn mue do dnh hudng,

xdc dinh cdc gid thdnh eua chi phi thay thS ddi

vdi cdc tdi san bi thiet hgi ndng hodc phuc hdi

lgi cdc tdi san trSn co sd giii nguySn muc dich

vd khd ndng phuc vy ban dau, do ludng udc

lugng chi phi cdi tao va phyc hoi lgi mdi trudng

Bu&c 3: Xde djnh vS mdt gid trj: dS tinh toan

vS mdt gid trj dya vao ca sd gid thanh, eua timg

logi CO trSn thj tnrdng, ddi vdi mgt sd doi higng

lien quan dSn suy gidm mdi frirdng thi phdi udc

Iugng cy thS chi phi dS phuc hdi

phi duge tinh toan theo hien hdnh de xay dyng mdi m5t cdng trinh cd edng nang, gia trj sd dyng vd higu qud kinh tS tuang duong, nhung vdt lifu, phuang phdp vd ky thudt hign dai se dugc sd dung dS xay dyng vd logi b6 tit cd cdc

bg phdn da bj loi thdi, hu hdng Td dd se tgo lgi

ich eho viec phat trien kinh tk, doi mdi co sd hg

tdng, kl thudt vd cdi thign mdi trudng song frong viing nghien cdu^

Vige xdc djnh ndy ed thS duge thye hien thdng qua mdt frong hai cdch sau:

+ Xdc djnh chi phi tdi sdn xudt mgt tai sdn tuong ddng fren thj trudng;

+ Xae djnh chi phi phdt triSn, thay thS hoac xay dyng mdi mgt logi tdi sdn tuong ty; + Xdc djnh chi phi phuc hdi nguySn frang ban ddu ddi vdi cde ddi tugng id mdi trudng bi anh hudng

2.2.5 Phucmg phdp u&c iu^g bang chiphi phdng ngira

Ddy Id phuong phdp tinh s6 tien ma cdc hg

ddn phdi bd ra hang ndm dk phdng ngda rui ro

do ngdp lut, eac chi phi ndy liSn quan den chi phi true tiSp do cdc hg gia dinh, cd nhdn bd trye tiSp dS ngan ngua nhung rui ro khi cd ngdp lyt xay ra, khi ed cdc gidi phdp c6ng trinh xdy ra thi chi phi phdng ngua eua eac hg ddn eung gidm Chi phi phdng ngua dugc hinh thdnh dya frSn ly thuySt hdnh vi ty bdo vg (PMT- Protective Motivation Theory), dya frSn gid djnh ve nh$n thuc eua moi cd nhan trudc cdc rui ro dd vd dang va se xdy ra, m5i mgt ca nhan, m^t h<i gia dinh hay m^t cgng ddng se hinh thdnh eac chi^n luge ung ph6 vd gidm nhg rdi ro frong tuong lai nSu gap phdi rui ro Dung trudc cdc tdc dgng rui

ro thiSn tai trong qud khd cdc hg gia dinh cd nhdn thdc ve xde suat xdy ra ngap lyt ciing nhu ludng trude, udc lugng trudc cdc thif t hai cd the xdy ra doi vdi cd nhdn, gia dinh vd xd hdi TrSn

CO sd nhdn thdc cdc nil ro, cdc ea nhdn vd hg gia dinh se hinh thdnh nSn mgt phan xg ty nhien dd

Id tim cdch tu bao vf bdn thdn minh, hg gia dinh minh phdng khi ed riii ro Do dd hg se cd mgt

http://phuongphapnghiencuukhoahoc.com

eac chien luge mang tirdi phu hgp vdi myc tiSu

giam thiSu rui ro, ciing nhu phu hgp vdi ngudn

thu nhap cua ban than vd hg gia dinh Do dd vdi

nii ro nggp lyt thi cdc ehi phi phdng ngda cdng

Id mgt logi chi phi can phdi duge tinh den nhdm

the hien chi phi dau tu gidm nhg riii ro d cdp

quy mo nhd cua hd gia dinh, nd se co tdc dfng

gidm thieu riii ro vd tinh d l tdn thuong cua ede

hg gia dinh trudc rui ro nggp lut Cdc chi phi

phong ngira doi vdi loai hinh nii ro ngdp lut den

td cdc hd gia dinh ed thS Id chi phi dau tu trang

bi cdc phuang tifn nhu thuySn, ca no, bao tdi

dung nong sdn, chi phi tdn cao nen nhd, ehi phi

xdy nhd vdi tinh chdt kiSn co, hogc cd them cde

gdc xep frSn cao nhdm ung phd khi ngdp xdy ra

cd thS so tdn ngudi va tai sdn cua hg gia dinh

gidm thigt hgi Nhihig chien luge eua eac hg gia

dinh dugc thS hifn ro frong nghiSn euu (NguySn

Thifn Diing, 2016) Chi phi phong ngua duge

cdc hf gia dinh lya chgn dya trSn myc tiSu cy

thS doi vdi timg chiSn luge giam nhg hogc td

hgp cac chien luge bao gdm cd nhiing chiSn

luge ddu tu mang tinh ddi ban vd chiSn luge ddu

tu mang tinh ung phd khan edp Vi du doi vdi

cdc hd gia dinh frong vung chju dnh hudng ngdp

lyt, hg se cd xu hudng mua sam thuySn dS ehd

cdc tdi sdn khi cdn thiSt, hodc ddu tu xay dyng

gdc xep, tdng 2 hoac ndng cao nSn nha nham

trdnh bj ngdp frong nhd de bdo vg tdi sdn

2.2.6 Phuffng phdp diiu tra ihu thgp dir

li^u thong ke

Phuang phdp dii lieu Ijch sd Id phuong phdp

nghien euu bang cdch dya fren vige thu thdp s6

lifu thdng kS trong lich sd, tim ngudn gdc phat

sinh, qua frinh phdt trien vd biSn hda (diSu kien,

hoan cdnh, khong gian, thdi gian cd dnh hudng)

de xdc djnh gia trj thift hgi do rui ro nggp lut

Ap dung dinh tinh cho tdt cd eae loai thiet hai

Phuong phdp diSu fra thu thgp dii lieu Ijch su cd

thS dugc tiSn hanh khdo sdt fren mft vimg, mgt

nhdm ddi tugng mang tinh dgi difn cho cd vung

nghiSn euu rgng ldn nhdm phdt hifn nhiing quy

lugt phdn b6, trinh dg phat triSn, nhung d^c

diSm ve mat djnh tinh va dinh lugng cda cdc ddi

tugng can nghiSn cihi Cdc tdi lifu, s6 lieu diSu

ddi tugng edn thiSt cho qud trinh nghien cdu va

Id can ed quan trgng de dinh lugng ti'nh todn cho

ea vung rgng ldn ddng thdi cd thS dung dS di xudt nhung giai phdp khoa hge hay gidi phap thyc tien

2.2.7 Phuffng phdp thu thgp s6 li^u bdng diiu tra phong vdn true tiip

Phuang phdp thu thap sd lifu b5ng phong vdn trye tiSp Id phuong phdp dua ra nhiing cau hdi vdi ngudi ddi thoai de thu thdp thdng tin Trudc moi ddi tugng duge chgn dS phdng vdn, ngudi nghien eihi cdn cd nhiing cdch tiep can khdc nhau de thu dugc td ngudi duge phdng vin nhiing thdng tin edn thiSt cho nghiSn cdu Ddi vdi ddnh gid rui ro ngdp lut, thong thudng eac so lifu thdng ke duge cdc nhd quan

ly, cdc CO quan cdc cdp vd cdc ngdnh dja phuong lift ke va udc lugng, do ti'nh dien rfng va dan frai ciing nhu dg phue tgp eua cdc ddi tugng nil

ro ngdp lyt nen ede sd ligu thong ke mdi chi 6 mdc danh gid d mdc true tiSp, phdn anh tnrc tiep ve sd lugng va dgc biet la ddi tugng chu ySu Id ede cdng trinh phdc Igi, co sd hg tiing, cac thift hgi so bg cua cae hg gia dinh, do do chua phdn dnh dugc ddy du thift hgi cua cac h§ gia dinh Do dd cdn thiSt phdi co sy phdn tich tdng hgp sd lifu tu cdc ngudn thdng ke eua cac dja phuang, ddng thdi phdi cd cdc ngudn thong tin sd lieu true tiSp do cdc ddi tugng bj anh hudng ddnh gid vd ude lugng nhdm hodn thien cac sd lifu ddnh gid thigt hgi dugc ddy du va chinh xde

Bdi bdo nay fren co sd tOng hgp thu thdp cac ngudn sd lieu thdng kS, ghi ehep fren so sach, frSn cdc nghiSn edu tnrdc do con true tiSp danh gia thigt hai cua cde hg gia dinh noi md ehua oi nguon so lifu day du vd tin c^y dl udc lugng them vdo gia frj thift hgi nggp lyt

2 3 Nhdm phmmg phdp irdt lirang gidn tiep

2,3.1 Phuangphdp dieu tra ddnh gid ngau nhien CVM (Contigent Value Method)

Ddy Id phuong phap thudng dugc sd dung frong tinh todn udc lugng cdc gid trj liSn quan den tai nguySn mdi trudng, frong khi dd thiSn tai ngdp lyt anh hudng nghiem frgng dSn moi

danh gia ngau nhien (CVM) eiing Id mgt

phuang phap do ludng lien quan dSn thift hai

mdi trudng Ngoai nhiing nguyen nhan trSn

phuong phap CVM cung dugc su dyng dS do

ludng cdc thift hai sdc khde, thigt hgi lien quan

dSn tinh thdn va tin ngudng Bdn chat cua

phuong phap CVM Id di do ludng nhiing gid frj

khdng cd san frSn thj trudng, do dd phdi ddt ra

cdc tinh hudng gid tudng de trye tiep hdi cac hd

gia dinh thdng qua sy sdn sang chi frd hay y

mudn thanh todn (WTP), va y mudn dugc dSn

bd (WTA) td dd co thS xdc djnh ra dugc gid tri

cda ddi tugng thift hgi dd, hoae gid trj thyc cua

mgt tai san m^t cdnh quan moi trudng, mgt mdi

trudng sdng ddi vdi mgt hg gia dinh Phuang

phdp dieu fra gid tudng thudng duge sd dyng de

danh gia thigt hgi doi vdi cdc hg gia dinh liSn

quan dSn moi trudng, sue khde va tin nguong,

ddy eung la mdt phuong phdp ket hgp eung vdi

cac phuong phap do ludng true tiep d tren de do

ludng thigt hgi ciia cdc hg gia dinh noi ma cac

sd lieu ve thdng kS khdng the hifn dugc vd chua

day dd

2.3.2 Phuong phdp ddnh gid hu&ng thu

Phuang phdp ddnh gid hudng thy do ludng

cae dnh hudng phuc Igi eua sy thay doi trong

cdc tdi san vd djeh vu mdi trudng bdng each

udc lugng anh hudng eua cdc thuoc tinh moi

trudng len gid trj cua cac hang hda thj trudng

ndo dd Phuong phdp nay da dugc dp dyng phd

biSn dS xem xet dnh hudng cda cac thuge tinh

mdi trudng len gia tri tdi sdn, thudng Id ddt dai

vd nhd d Ddt dai vd nhd d la cdc loai tdi san cd

sdn gia thj trudng, nhung khi chung bj tde dgng

cda ngdp lut thi gid tri se bj dnh hudng vd eu

thS Id gidm di r5 rft vi vdy khi cdn co su xdc

dinh chenh lgch gid trj tai sdn la bao nhiSu do

vd tu do suy ra gid ngudi ta sdn long chi frd cho mdt cdi thign ehdt lugng mdi trudng, cu the san sang ehi trd cho gidi phap ph6ng chdng ngdp lyt cua cac hg ddn trong vimg chju anh hudng eua ngdp lyt

Ta ed ham danh gia nhu sau: Ph = fn (Shi, , Shj;Nhl, ,Nhk;, Ehi, , Ehm)

Trong do: Pi,: Gid nha; Shi, , Shj: Dac dilm cau true cda can nha; Nhi, ,Nhk: Dac diem hdng xdm; vd Ehi,.-, Ehm: Dgc diSm moi trudng Dgng ham thudng dugc sd dyng cho ham ddnh gid hudng thy la dgng ham log-log: LnPn = axhiS„+ bxlnNh + cxlnEh (2)

U * Cat d a ^ Dg^ l^t M a u u i o g o n l H i i d o D ^ l g t IE}

Hinh 2 Biiu thi tuang quan gid nhd ddt v&i cdi thiet ngdp l^it

2.4 Tong hgp cac loai thift hai va tinh toan thiet hai

Tu phdn tich cdc phuong phdp dugc dung de danh gid thift hgi cda cac ddi tugng liSn quan den thift hai do ngap lyt, nhgn thay rang can phdi cd

sy vgn dyng tdt cd cdc phuong phdp mgt cdch linh boat vd tuy timg ddi tugng, cimg nhu cdn phdi su dyng cd cdc nhdm phuong phap true tiSp

va nhdm phuong phdp gian tiep, udc lugng thift hai bao g6m ca 3 giai doan: Giai doan phong ngira (trudc khi ngdp); giai dogn ung phd (frong khi ngdp), giai doan phuc hdi (sau khi ngdp) Thdi diem

thiet hai

Chi phi thigt

hai frudc khi

ngdp lut

Doi tugng chinh

Xay dung

Mua sdm

Nhdn thuc

Dy bdo, cdnh bdo

Loai hinh thiet hai Tdn cao nen, xdy cao tang Mua sdm thiSt bj cuu hg Tang chi phi ddo tgo, tuySn truySn DAU tu hf th6ng dy bao, canh bdo

Ti'nh todn thiet hai Chi phi xdy dyng tang thSm Chi phi mua sdm tang them Tinh toan gid thi trudng Chi phi ddu tu

Thiet hgi

trong khi

ngdp lyt

Thiet hai sau

ngap lut

Nhd cua, tai san

Ndng nghigp

Thuy sdn

Sdn phdm xa hdi

Co sd ha tdng

Cdng nghifp

Thdi gian xa hgi

Du lich

Nude sach va

VSMT"

Sue khde va con

ngudi

Gid trj ddt dai

Moi trudng ddu tu

Nhd ngdp nude Nhd eua bi do Tdi sdn bj mat, hdng Phuong tien di lai

Thift hai cdy cdi hoa mdu Thiet hai gia sue gia cdm Mat luong thye va hgt gidng Mat gid trj thuy sdn nudi frdng Mat gia tri thdy sdn khai thdc Sua chiia dam, ho, ao nudi thuy san

Gidm gid lam do nghi vifc Sua ehua dudng xd Sua cong trinh thdy lgi Sua trgm difn, hf thong viSn thdng lien Igc

Sda trudng hoc, try sd, co quan Sda cdng trinh y te, edng cgng

Co sd nhd may, khu edng nghifp

Hao phi thdi gian do dinh fre giao thong

Gidm sd lugng va chdt lugng dich vy, gidm lugng khach Chi phi cung cdp nude sach Chi phi mdi trudng Chi phi khdm chiia benh do nude 6 nhiem

Chi phi khdm chiia benh do sue khde, chdn thuang, sang chdn tdm ly

Ngudi nhd chdm sdc benh nhan

Tu vong Gid tri ddt d va kinh doanh Giam khd ndng thu hut vdn ddu

tu trye tiSp td ben ngoai

LTdc fr'nh thift hgi Chi phi khac phyc, LTdc tinh thiet hgi Chi phi thay th^ Chi phi khde phuc, T/de tinh thigt hgi, Chi phi thay thS Thay ddi san lugng, Thay ddi ndng sudt Thay ddi san lugng Tinh todn gid thj trudng Tinh toan gid thi trudng Thay ddi sdn lugng Thay ddi san lugng Chi phi khac phyc, Tinh theo gid thi trudng Chi phi CO hgi Chi phi khac phye Chi phi khde phyc Chi phi khac phyc Chi phi khac phuc Chi phi khdc phue Chi phi khdc phuc, Chi phi thay thS Chi phi ca hgi Chi phi CO hdi, Chi phi bdo hiSm Chi phi khde phyc, Tinh todn gia thi tnrdng Chi phi khde phuc Chi phi sdc khde

Chi phi sue khoe Chi phi CO hgi Chi phi CO hdi Tinh todn ^ a thj trucmg Chi phi ca hgi

Hinh 3 Tong hgp cdc loai Ihiet hgi va linh lodn chi phi Ihiet hgi

Qudn ly rui ro ben vdng Id mgt each tiep can cdn nhiSu ban chS DS su dyng dugc phuong

md Vift Nam dd vd dang hudng tdi nham gidm phdp CBA cdn thiSt phdi djnh lugng dugc lgi nhe rui ro thien tai noi chung vd rui ro ngdp lut ich cua cde cdng trinh phdng chong vd gidm nhe ndi riSng mdt each cd hifu qua vd ben viing rui ro ngap lyt, thong qua djnh lugng vd udc

Quan ly rdi ro ngdp lyt se ludn di kSm vdi eae lugng cdc thift hgi do ngap lut gdy ra Phuong

quyet djnh ddu tu gidm thiSu rui ro nggp lyt mgt phap phdn tich chi phi Igi ich (CBA) vin tiSp each hifu qud, dya frSn tinh todn day dd ehi phi tuc Id mgt cdng cu quan trgng frong ddnh gia va

vd Igd ich eua moi mgt dy dn ddu tu xdy dyng, lua chgn quyet djnh ddu tu gidm nhg riii ro thiSn ddm bdo su dyng tdi uu ngudn vdn ddu tu, dgc tai hign nay eiing nhu sdp tdi tgi Vift Nam TAI LIEU THAM KHAO

World Bank report, (2010), Qude Hgi, (2013), Lugt phong chdng thien tai so 33/2013/QH13 Nguyen Thien Diing, (2016), "Assessing household's vulnerability in rural Vietnam affected climate

change and proposed policies to risk reduction, "Conference processing in Water Security on

Climate Change, Bankok, Thailand, 2016

Mechler, R (2016), Reviewing estimates ofthe economic efficiency of disaster risk management:

opportunities and limitations of using risk-based cost-benefit analysis, Spinger

Mechler, R (2005), Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of Natural Disaster Risk Management in

Developing Countries GTZ, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development

Kramer, R A (1995), Advantages and Limitations of Benefit - Cost Analysis for Evaluation

Investment in National Disaster Mitigation, vol Disaster prevention for Sustainable Development,

Economic and Policy Issues Washington, D.C.,, pp 61-76

Amaud Reynaud, Manh-Hung Nguyen, Thanh Duy Nguyen (2016) " Valuing Flood Risk Reduction:

Results From a Choice Experiment in Viet Nam", Springer Netherlands, vol Vol 21, no N.5,

pp 603-617, October 2016

Abstract:

OVERVIEW METHODS TO EVALUATE THE BENEFIT

IN FLOOD RISK REDUCTION INVESTMENT PROJECTS

Vietnam is a country located in the region suffered damage caused by natural disasters, and flood

is also one of the most popular natural risks Every years, flood damages to people, property, infrastructure, economy, society, and environmental devastation Therefore, flood risk reduction investment projects are becoming more important and urgent to save lifes and property of social Given issues how to choose flood inflastructure investment projects are efficient in economies but still reach high savety There are many methods, but using Benefit - cost analysis could be easy to evaluate projects from planning to design period This paper will introduce methods to evaluate the damages fi-om flood risk and use it to benefit cost analysis in evaluating investment projects

Keywords: Flood risk Investment Benefit, Evaluating, Natural risk reduction

Ngdy nhdn bdi: 11/8/2017 Ngdy chdp nhdn ddng: 13/10/2017