KHOA HOC CONG NGHE [VGHIEI\I CIJU THUC TRAI\IG CUA TAC OOi^G BIEI\I DOI KHi HAU, XU HUQIVG THIEIM TAI, mHUIMEi lil[\JH IVIGHIEIVI B A O V E VUI\iG VEIM BIEIM, DU LICH VA B A O TOIM T H I E I \ I I \ I[.]
Trang 1[VGHIEI\I CIJU THUC TRAI\IG CUA TAC OOi^G
BIEI\I DOI KHi H A U , X U HUQIVG THIEIM TAI, mHUIMEi lil[\JH IVIGHIEIVI B A O V E VUI\iG VEIM BIEIM, DU LICH V A
B A O T O I M T H I E I \ I I \ I H I E I \ I C U A Til\IH KIEI\i GIAIMG
TTili TTilnh Lugm'
T6MTAT
Toan tinh Kien Giang khong tinh ca huyen dao va eac xa dao co dien tich la 570,373,9 ha, Trong do dien tich vimg U Minh Thuong la 181,155 ha, vung Tay song Hau 150,688 ha, viing Tii giac Long Xuyen co dien
lieh 238.550,9 ha Theo kit qua tinh toan thiiy van neu nunc bien dang cao lm thi tinh Kien Giang phan trong dat lien chi con lai 37 161,8 ha nho len khoi mat nuac bien, chiem 6,51% dien tich dat lien, Nhung bien ddi khi hau trong 10 nam gan day cho thay di^n bien khi hau thay doi theo chilu huong bat loi cho con ngu'oi va co hien tuong tu nhien bat thuong, nhu nhiet do ngay cang co xu huong gia tang, khac nghiet hon nhung nam truac day, lucmg mua cung thay ddi bat thuang trong nhung nam gin day, Nhung bien doi ve thiiy van trong nhung nam gan day do tai Tram Thuy van Rach Gia muc nuae dien bien theo ehieu huong gia tang trong thai diem cue dai tii nam 2003 den 2007, Trong thoi gian 5 nam muc nuac dang cao tii 20
cm-30 cm, mue nuoe thiiy van thap nhat tang 1 cm - 7 cm Diln bien nay cho thay nguy ea nuac bien ngay cang dang cao Bai bao cung da tong hpp cac kinh nghiem va de xuat cac giai phap doi pho voi biin ddi khi hau
va nuoc bien dang cho tinh Kien Giang noi rieng va cho vung dong bing song Cii'u Long noi chung
Tir khoa: Bien doi khi hau, bao tSn thien nhien, Kien Giang
LDATVANDE
Toln tinh Kien Giang khong tinh c l huyen dao
va d c xa dio cd dien tich la 570.373,9 ha, Trong do
dien tich vung U Minh Thugng la 181.155 ha, vung
Tay song Hau 150.688 ha; vung Tu gilc Long Xuyen
cd dien tich 238.550,9 ha Nlu xlc dinh -vung cd do
cao tren lm thi toan tinh chi con lai 32.699,5 ha vl
cao hon 1,5 m la 4.462,3 ha Nhu vay neu nuoe biin
cao hon 1 m so voi dia hinh thi tinh Kien Giang phln
trong dlt lien chi cdn lai 37.161,8 ha nho len khdi
mat nuoc bien, chiem 6,51% dien tich dlt liln
Nhung biin ddi khi hau trong 10 nam gan day
cho thIy dien biin khi hau thay ddi theo chieu
hudng bit lgi cho con ngudi va co hien tugng tu
nhien bit thudng, nhu nhiet do ngay cang cd xu
huong gia tang, khIc nghiet hon; lugng mua cung
thay ddi bat thudng trong nhiing nam gin day
Nhung biin ddi vl thuy van trong nhirng nam
gin day do tai Tram Thuy van Rach Gil cho thay
muc nuoe diln biin theo chilu hudng gia tang ti'ong
thoi dilm cue dai fir nam 1998 din 2007; trong thdi
gian 10 nam muc nuoc dang cao tu 20 cm-30 cm, muc
Sa Tai nguyen va Moi truong tinh Kien Giang
nuoc thiiy van thIp nhlt gilm durn -1 cm Dien biln nay cho thIy nguy co nuoc biln ngay d n g dang cao, Nlu mue nuoc bien dang cao 0,5 m thi toan tinh Kien Giang chi con lai 100,588,3 ha chiem 17,63% dien tich ddng bing toln tinh, Neu nude biln dang 1 m thi toln tinh chi cdn 37.161,8 ha chiim 6,51% dien tich dat lien toan tinh
T i t c l d c giai phap d n dugc dat ra va d n phii duoc thue hien khan truong d l ddi pho voi nhung diln bien ciia tu nhien phuc vu yeu clu ciia doi sdng
va phlt trien kinh te trong dilu kien mdi Tinh hinh biln ddi khi hau va nuoc biln dang chic chin se Inh hudng khong nhd d i n sir phlt triln kinh t l - xa hoi ciia tinh,
II PHUOniG PHAP NGHIEN CUU
Nghien cun tdng hgp va thu thap sd lieu, tai lieu lien quan v l diln biln khi hau va thiiy van da dugc quan trie; tdng hgp k i t q u i theo he thdng cac nam lien tuc
Nghien ciin v l khi hau, dua vao sd lieu quan trie ciia Tram Khi tuong Thiiy van Rach Gia voi sd lieu khi hau ve nhiet do, luong mua nham muc dich xem xet diln biln vl nhiet do nong len hoac giam xudng theo diln biln vl then gian va dien biln vl luong mua
trong 10 nam txa lai day
Trang 2KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
Nghien cun vl thtiy van, dua vao sd heu do dac
tai Pram Thuy van Rach Gia do dat muc nuoc ngap
binh quan theo thang va tdng hgp binh quan theo
nam, cung nhu so sanh sd lieu muc nuoc biln binh
quan cue dai cua thang co thiiy ti-ilu cao nhlt va muc
nuoc biln ciia thang co thiiy trieu kiet nhlt d l so
sanh diln biln cua muc nuoc biln dang,
Nghien cun vl dia hmh, su dung sd lieu dia hinh
ciia tinh Kien Giang, phan chia cac loai dia hinh khac
nhau tren co sd dd xac dinh do ngap sau va dien tich
bi ngap nlu muc nude bien gia tang tir 0,5 m va 1 m
III KET QUA NGHIEN CUU
1 Kit qua nghifen cuu v l diln biln khi hau
a Dien bien nhiet do
Diln biln vl nhiet do dugc trinh bay qua sd lieu
thu thap tai Tram Khi tugng Thuy van Rach Gia voi sd
lieu theo doi binh quan trong 10 nam fhl hien d bing
l,bieu dd 1 v l 2 A
Bilu 1 Diln biln nhi6t do trong 10 nam da qua
tai Tram Khi tugng TTiiiy van Rach Gil (°C)
40
o 35
t—
.< 30
: • : £
5 o 2 0
m <
o " 1 5
IV V VI VII VIII IX X CAC THANG TRONG NAM
Bieu do 1: Nhiet do binh quan toi cao theo thana
Ironji 10 nam
So sanh sd lieu nhiet do binh quan 10 nam tii
1998 din 2007 voi sd lieu binh quan quan trie tir
truoe nam 1975 din nam 1981 (thdi gian quan trie la
10 nam) ta nhan thIy sd lieu binh quan giai doan
hien tai la 32,88"C va ddi chfmg cua giai doan truoc
1975-1981 la 30,4''C, nhiet do chenh lech II 2,480C;
nhiet do binh quan cao nhlt la 35,56°C, ddi chung
(II) la 31,1"C, chenh lech 4,46«C; nhiet do binh quan
thIp nhat (I) la 20,68"C, ddi chung (II) la 24,4''C,
chenh lech nhiet dd gilm hon -3,72*'C
Qua sd lieu so sanh gitra quan trie hien tai va
quan ti-|c ddi chung ti'ong hai giai doan nhan fhly
nhiet do da tang len 2,48°C truoc nam 1975 d i n 2007
thdi gian la 22 nam; nhiet do binh quan tdi cao (I) so
voi ddi chiing (II) chenh lech la 4,46"C: nhiet dp binh
quan tdi thIp (I) so voi ddi chiing (II) chenh lech
TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
I
II
Nam
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
BQ Ddi chiing*
Nhiet
do BQ nam
CC)
33,2 32,6 32,9 33,2 33,3 32,9 33.4 32,0 32,6 32,7 32,88 30,4
Nhiet do
BQ cao nhat ("C)
36
35 34,9 35,7 36,2
36
37 35,5 34,5 34,8 35,56 31,1
Nhiet do binh quan thap nhat
C'C)
18,6 22,4 23,6 20,2 20,6 19,8 20,5 20,5 19,5 19,1 20,68 24,4
* Boi chimg: So lieu binh quan quan trdc duac tir nam 1975 den thdng 12 nam 1981 cua Ddi Khi tuang Thuy vdn cua Nguyhi Htm Bao, dac diem khi hau tinh Kien Giang (1984)
Bif'u do 2.\; Dien bien nhiet do 10 nam tii 1998-2007
giam -3,72"C cho thIy bien do nhiet ngay cang chenh lech nong len theo thdi gian va co xu hudng lanh hon
d thdi diem nhiet do tdi thIp
Bilu dd diln biln nhiet do cac thang trong 10 nam cho fhly nhiet do binh quan tdi cao d cac thang bilu hien ndng va khIc nghiet nhlt II thing 3 va thing 4 vl gilm din tii t h i n g 5 din thing 2 nam sau, diln biln nhiet do nay cho fhly vao thing 3 vl thang
4 la thoi ky ban ban gay git Day cung la thdi ky m l thien tai thudng xly ra nhu: Rimg khong cd do am,
d l sinh ra chly va sin xult nong nghiep thieu nuoc, nhlt la vu he thu
b Dien bien lirmig mua
Ve lugng mua so sanh lugng mua binh quan trong nam ciia giai doan 10 nam ttr nam 1998 den
2007 (I) la 2.321,21 mm so vdi ddi chung (II) bmh
Trang 3quan dugc quan trie tu' nam 1975 - 1981 II 2.068,2
mm, chenh lech lugng mua II 253,01 mm; lugng mua
binh quan ciia thing cao nhat ciia giai doan hien nay
vl giai doan ddi chiing trudc day cho fhly cd su
chenh lech lugng mua nhilu hon (I) II 286,43 mm va
(II) ddi chiing II 286,8 mm chenh lech II khong ding
kl; lugng mua binh quan tdi thap chenh lech khong
nhilu xem nhu II xap xi tuong duong hon 11 mm cua
thang thIp nhlt
Qua bieu dd 2 diln biln lugng mua theo thing
trong 10 nam cho fhly mua mua bat diu tii thing 5
va lugng mua tap trung nhat II vao thing 7 din thang
9 vl bit diu chim diit vio thing 12, cl biet cd nam
lugng mua thIp nhlt trong thing 9
Diln biln vl lugng mua ciia thing cd cudng dd
mua cao nhlt, cl biet co nam cudng dd rlt cao,
nhung nam gan day cudng dd cao nhat, lugng mua
III IV V Vl VII VIII IX X XI XII
D I e N B i e i ^ T H E O THANG
thIp nhlt trong nhilu nam ti-d lai day rat thap cho fhly tinh h-ang ban han diln ra phd biln, lugng mua trung binh theo thing ciia nhilu nam gin day cd xu hudng giam
IV V VI VII VIII IX CAC THANG TRONG NAM
Bieu do 2: Luong mu'a binh quan cac thang trong
10 nam
2 Kit qui nghien cuu vl diln biln thuy v§n
B I £ U BIEN THEO THANG
Bieu do 3: Muc nuo'c cao nhat do tai tram Thiiy van Rach Gia til 1998 - 2007
Bieu do 4: Mux nuoc Thiiy viin thap nhat do tai tram Rach Gia tii nam 1998 - 2007
Bieu do 5: Muc nuffc trung binh (Mtb) toi cao trung binh (Mtc)
toi thap trung binh (Mtt) tir nam 1998 - 2007
BiSu do -1: Dien bien dia hinh tir -2m den Cm va 0mm den 1,5 m
Kit qua quan trie muc nuoc thiiy van viing ven Muc nuoc nglp trilu binh quan gia tang b giai
biln tinh Kien Giang cho thay: doan 1998 II 61 cm, thi din giai doan 2002 la 70 era
Trang 4KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
vl giai doan 2007 la 71 cm, nhu vay nhin tdng thi so
vdi nam 1998 thi miie gia tang 10 cm
Mue nude ngap trilu binh quan cao nhlt hing
nam ed xu hudng ngay cang tang eao, nam 1998 do
dugc II 68 cm, nam 2002 la 98 em thi din nam 2007
II 84 cm, nhu vay muc nuoc thiiy trilu eiia biln Tay
cd tang vl gilm theo tiing giai doan nhung giai doan
sau bao gid cling tang eao hon giai doan trudc theo
xu hudng tang cao so voi nam 1998 II16 cm
Muc nude thuy trilu binh quan thIp nhat cung
cd gia tang nhtmg miie do gia tang khong ding kl,
trong nam nam mire gia tang rat nhd gin nhu su
chenh lech II khong ding kl
3 Kit qua nghien ciiu vl dia hinh toln tinh
Bilu 2 Diln biln dia hinh dd cao vl khi nang
nglp khi c6 nude biln ding toln tinh phln dlt liln
TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dien tich phan dat lien
toan tinh
Do sau tir -1 m den -2 m
Do sau tli -0 m den -1 m
Dp cao tir 0 m -0,5 m
Dp cao tir 0,5 m-1 m
Dp cao tir 1 m-1,5 m
Dp cao tir 1,5 m tra len
Tong cong
Dien tich (ba)
0 7.743,7 311.373,9 63.426,5 32.699,5 4.462,3 570.393,9
Ti le (%)
0 1,35 54,59 11,12 5,73 0,78 100%
Qua xem xlt dilu kien dia hinh tren pham vi
toln tinh tii do sau 2 m din 0 m vl do cao tir 0 m trd
len diln biln dien tich vl ti le (bilu 2) cho fhly dia
hinh ciia ddng bing tinh Kien Giang cd do cao tii 0 m
din 0,5 m, ed dien tich II 311.373,9 ha ehilm 54,59%
dien tich ddng bing vl nlu tinh do cao dia hinh ttr 0
m din lm thi dien tich II 374.800,4 ha ehilm 65,71%
dien tich
Nhu vay, nlu muc nude biln dang cao hon muc
thuy chuln 0,5 m thi cd hon 50% dien tich ddng bing
bi chim trong nuoc biln, nlu muc nuoc biln cao hon
1 m so vdi muc thuy chuln thi cd 66% dien tich ddng
bing bi chim trong biln va nlu muc nude biln dang
len din 1,5 m so voi muc thuy chuan thi dien tich
ddng bing ciia tinh cd tren 71% bf chim trong nude
a Viing U Minh Thuang (UTM)
Nlu tinh cho vung UMT thi diln biln khi hau do
muc nude biln dang ed tic ddng rlt lon din dilu
kien tu nhien cua -viing do toan bg dia hinh ciia vilng
nlm trong khoing 0 m din 0,5 m Vi vay, neu muc
nude biln dang eao hon 0,5 m so voi muc nude thuy
chuln thi toln bg dien tich viing UMT se chim ti-ong
mat nude biln vl dien tich hi chim II 181.155 ha
ehilm 31,76% dien tich ddng bing toln tinh Kien Giang
Bilu 3 Diln biln dia hinh dd cao vl khi nSng ngap khi c6 nude biln ding vung UMT
TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dien tich phan dat lien toan tinh
Do sau tli -1 m den -2 m
Do sau tli -0 m den -1 m
Do cao tirO m-0,5 m
Do cao hi0,5 m-1 m
Do cao hi 1 m-1,5 m
Do cao hi 1,5 m tra len Tong cong
Dien tich (ha)
0 6.521,8 174.633,2
0
0
0 181.155
Tile (%)
0 1,14 30,62
0
0
0 31,76
b Viing Tay song Hdu (TSH)
Bilu 4 Diln biln dia hinh dd cao vl khi ning nglp khi cd nu6c biln ding vung TSH
TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dien tich phan dat lien toan tinh
Dp sau hi -1 m den -2 m
Do sau tli -0 m den -1 m
Dp cao hi 0 m -0,5 m
Dp cao tli 0,5 m - 1 m
Dp cao tir 1 m -1,5 m
Dp cao tli 1,5 m tra len Tdng cong
Dien tich (ha)
0
0 150.668
0
0
0 150.688
Tile (%)
0
0 26,42
0
0
0 26.42 Vung TSH ed do eao dia hinh nlm trong khoang
0 m din 0,5 m, cd dien tich II 150.688 ha ehilm ti le 26,42% so vdi dien tich tu nhien toln ddng bing Kien Giang Cung gidng nhu viing UMT, nlu muc nude biln dang cao hon 0,5 m so vdi mire thiiy chuan thi toln bd "vung ddng bing TSH cua Kien Giang se chim sau vio mat nude biln
c Viing Tu Giac Ijjng Xuyen
Bilu 5 Diln biln dia hinh dd cao vi khi nSng
nglp khi c6 nude biln ding viing Tu Gilc Long
Xuyfen (JGUQ
TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dien tich phan dat lien toan tinh
Do sau tir -1 m den -2 m
Dp sau tir -0 m den -1 m
Dp cao hi 0 m -0,5 m
Dp cao hi 0,5 m -1 m
Dp cao tli 1 m-1,5 m
Dp cao tli 1,5 m tro' len Tong cong
Dien tich (ha)
0 1.221,9 136.740,7 63.426,5 32.699,5 4.462,3 238.550,9
Tile (%)
0 0,21 23,97 11,12 5,73 0,78 41,82 Viing TGLX cd dia hinh tuong ddi phiic tap hon elc "vung tren trong dia bin tinh Kien Giang, noi cd
do sau tli 0 m din 1 m chiem dien tich nhd 1.221,9 ha chiem ti le 0,21%; noi ed do cao tir 0 m din 0,5 m
Trang 5chiim dien tich kha ldn 136.740,7 ha chiem 23,97%
toln vting ddng bing Kien Giang; dp cao tir 0,5 m - 1 m
CO dien tich II 63.426,5 ha chiem ti le 11,12% ; do cao
tir 1 m - 1,5 m CO dien tich 32.699,5 ha chiem ti le
5,73% dien tich
Nhu vay, nlu mue nuoc bien dang din 1 m so
vdi muc thuy chuan thi viing TGLX con lai dien tich
rlt nhd, chi chiim 6,51% dien tich ttr nhien toln viing
ddng bing Kien Giang
4 TTiuc trang v l bao tdn thiSn nhi&n va anh
hudmg cua biln doi khi hlu v l nude biln dang
a Anh hudng den tdi nguyen rirng vd da dcing
sinh hoc
Tdng dien tich rimg hien cd II 111.817 ha, chiim
17,62% dien tich tU' nhien toan tinh (bao gdm 3 loai
rimg chinh II rimg sin xult 18.634,9 ha, rimg phdng
hd 50.896,9 ha va rung dac dung 42.285,2 ha) Tli
nguyen thuc vat rimg rat da dang va phong phu, bao
gdm ca he sinh thai rung thuong xanh mua Im nhiet
ddi vung ddi va hIi dao, he sinh thai rimg ngap man
ven biln va he sinh thii rimg ngap nuoc ndi dia
Vudn Qudc gia Phu Qudc vl cac hIi dio II noi
phan bd tu nhien cua he sinh thii rimg II rong thudng
xanh mua am nhiet ddi Thanh phln thuc vat cua
Vudn Qudc gia (VQG ) Phii Qudc cd 1.164 loli thuc
vat bac cao cd mach tren can thugc 531 chi, 137 ho, 66
bo cua 6 nganh thuc vat (co 12 loli quy hilm va 54 loai
dac hQn) He dong vat rimg the hien ro net cua khu he
DBSCL voi cic dai dien nhu Thin lln duoi dep
(Hemydactylus prenatus) Thin lln Baorin
(Hemydactylus bowringi), Cle k l (Calotes versicolor),
Rua (Heiremys annamdalei) Thanh phln dong vat ghi
nhan dugc cd 150 loli thugc 125 chi vl 69 hg (co 23
loai quy hilm dugc ghi nhan trong Sach dd Viet
Nam), ti-ong dd lop thii co 17 hg, 23 chi va 26 loli; Idp
• • • • • • • ^ - J '
chim CO 34 hg, 70 chi va 84 loai; lop bo sat co 14 ho, 25 chi va 29 loai; lop luong the cd 4 hg, 7 chi va 11 loai, VQG U Minh Thugng II mdt viing dim rung tren dat than bim voi dien tich ldn, tap ti-ung, con sot lai rlt
if d Viet Nam, Thanh phln thuc vat mng d VQG U Minh Thuong co khoang 249 loai Tham thuc vat rung tao noi cu tini rlt quan trgng cua cac loai chim nude Thanh phln cac loli chim d day rat da dang va phong phu voi 185 loai chim thugc 39 hg, 12 bg chiim 16,6%
so vol 828 loai chim ghi nhan tai Viet Nam
Khi hau biln ddi va nuoc biln dang co nguy co llm thay ddi tinh da dang sinh hgc cua he sinh thai rung vl moi truong sdng ciia cac thinh phln sinh vat trong VQG vl khu bio tdn thien nhien nhu da trinh bay d tren
b Anh hudng dm he sinh thdi bien
Vung bien Kien Giang co nhilu san ho, khoing
700 ha cimg 12.000 ha tham cd biln, la noi cu tru, ngudn thiic an cua nhilu loai ca bien, loai dong vat bien quy hiem, tao ra ngudn sinh cinh biln rlt da dang va hap dan d l khai fhIc du hch ThIm cd biln d Kien Giang kha phong phu da dang, theo thdng ke
CO toi 10 loli trong 16 loli dugc cong bd cua toan
vung biln Viet Nam San ho a Kien Giang rat da
dang ve chung loai, duge phan bd d eac dia dilm nhu Phu Qudc, Nam Du va Thd Chau, 'vung bien Kien Giang con cd nhieu loai dong vat quy hiem khac nhu
cac loai Rua biln, Rua Da, Ddi mdi (Eretmochelys imbricata), Trang bong, Vich (Chenolia mydas), Quin ddng (Lepictochelys elivacca) va dac biet la thu
bien m l trong dd Bo biln (Dugong) dang hi de doa nghiem trgng va co nguy co tuyet chung Nhilu nghien cim cho thay vimg bien nly cd tinh da dang sinh hgc cao voi ran san ho va tham cd biln phong
phu, un fhl la loli Thalassia hemprichii, Cymodocea serrulata, Enhalus acoroides Phu Qudc cd 9 bai cd
i!
Ran san ho -vl tham cd biln vimg biln dao Phii Qudc
Trang 6KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
Biln ddi khi hau nhu da nghien ciiu tren se llm
thay ddi nhiet do; nhiet do gia tang manh hon do
phlt thii khi trong cong nghiep va hien tugng gay
hieu ung nha kinh lam thay ddi khi hau vl cac thanh
phln sinh vat bien cung hi biln ddi lam cho he sinh
thai bien hi thay ddi, nguy co thay ddi tinh da dang
sinh hoc cua sinh vat bien
c Anh hudng den phdt trien kinh te - xd hoi vd
du lick
Kien Giang II mot trong nhting tinh cd nhilu di
tich lieh sir vl danh thing trong pham vi qudc gia, la
noi hoi tu nhung hdn dio dep nhu Hon Chong, Hdn
Trem, Hdn Nghe, quin dio Binh Tri, HIi Tac, dio
Kien HIi, Phii Qudc Voi cac bai biln cat vang min,
bai thoai cd dii dilu kien xay dung thinh khu du hch
bien co y nghia dia phuong trong tuong lai Dac biet,
theo Quylt dinh sd 178/2004/QD-TTg ciia Thu
tudng Chinh phu phe duyet "De an phlt triln tdng
the dio Phii Qudc, tinh Kien Giang d i n nam 2010 vl
tim nhin din nam 2020", dio Phu Qudc se trd thanh
trung tam du lieh sinh thai biln chat lugng cao
Bien ddi khi hau va nuoc biln dang cd nguy co
lam thay ddi elc dieu kien tu nhien, Inh hudng din
su phlt triln kinh tl- xa hgi ctia tinh, true tiep bi Inh
hudng la sin xult nong, lam, ngu nghiep m l true tilp
nhlt la nong dan, noi m l cdn hon 80% dan sd vl lao
dong sdng bing nghi nong, lam, ngu nghiep vl Inh
hudng din boat dong du hch, nhat II viec thu hep
cac khu cinh quan thien nhien ciing nhu thay ddi elc
he sinh thii rimg, sinh thii biln llm thiet hai khong
nhd din boat dong du hch, mot nglnh kinh t l miii
nhon ciia tinh Kien Giang
IV CAC GIAI PHAP VA KiniH niGHIEIVJ 001 PHO VOI BIEI\i DO!
KHi HAU
1 Xly dung h$ fhdng quan trac v l canh bio sdm
biln ddi khi hau
Xay dung he thdng quan trie vl khi hau vl thuy
van vimg doi bd va viing biln ven bd cin dugc tm
tien hing diu O tinh Kien Giang quan tam nhlt II:
Tang cuong nhan lue va diu tu cho cac tram khi
tugng thuy van hien cd gdm cac Tram Khi tugng
Thuy van Rach Gia, HI Tien, Phu Qudc, ddng thdi cd
fhl md mdi them Tram Khi tugng Thuy van vimg U
Minh Thugng
Xay dung mang luoi quan trie khi tugng thiiy van cho viing ddi bd va vung ven bo bien, cd du an quan trie khi tugng voi elc chi tieu nhiet do, lugng mua Do II hai chi tieu fhl hien su biln ddi khi hau
do ndng len cua trai dlt fhl hien nhiet do cd chenh lech so voi 20 nam truoc day nhat la trong mua kho din din nhilu hilm hga cho con ngudi nhu ban bin, chly rirng va lugng mua dot biln vio mua mua so voi trudc day Lugng mua phan bd khong deu, tap trung trong nhtrng thing cao dilm ddng thoi tap trung trong ngly, cd nhirng ngay mua lien tuc vdi cudng do ldn lam cho iQ lut cue bg va gay lu quet d nhCrng vung cd do ddc lon
Nlu duge xay dung he thdng quan trie va sir dung he thdng thong tin cinh bio sdm d l co bien phip ddi phd vdi biln ddi khi hau va nude bien dang thi CO fhl gilm thief hai cho con ngu'oi
2 Xay dung h i thdng ha tang thuy lgi
a Cung cd he thdng de bao Cung CO va nang cap he thdng de bao cd do cao
tren 2 m so voi muc thuy chuln d l phdng muc nude bien dang cao hon 1 m He thdng de bao tren dia ban tinh Kien Giang dli tren 200 km, hang nam vio mua mua nude bien dang cao, kem theo gio fay nam thinh
h i n h vdi cudng do song bien tren d p 5 lam cho bd bien nhieu doan bi sdng vo true tilp gay xdi Id bd biln mdt cich nghiem trgng, nhilu noi Id din trong khu dan cu nhu de bien Hdn Dlt vl An Bien, An Minh Vi vay cong trinh de bien phii dugc kien cd vl phli cd cic cong trinh chin sdng chdng xoi Id
Viec xay dtmg cong trinh de biln cd thi kit hgp voi xay dtmg he thdng giao thong ven biln vua kit hgp chdng biln ddi khi hau va nuoc bien dang, va an ninh qudc phdng
b Xdy dipig he thdng cdng vd cita ngdn man
Xay dung he thdng cdng ngan man xam nhap va nude bien dang phai gan lien vdi he thdng de bien de ngan nude biln dang vao sau trong ndi dia Toan tinh Kien Giang cd 71 ciia song rach keo dli qua 8 huyen, thi xa Ha Tien va TP Rach Gil
De ddi phd bien ddi khi hau va nuoc bien dang cin nghien cun cong trinh dap vl cua cdng ngan man
vl chan mue nude biln dang tren 71 ciia rach va kenh dd ra biln; day la mot cong trinh khong phli nhd Chiing ta da co kinh nghiem lam mot sd cong
Trang 7trinh cira cdng cd 2 chieu, khi miia mua d i n nude lu
dd vl thi cua cdng se md theo ehilu tholt nude ra
biln, vl khi miia kho cd nude man xam nhap, cle cua
se ddng lai theo chilu ngan nude biln xam nhap, day
II CO sd thuc tiln d l xay dung cle cong trinh cira
song rach d l ngan chan nude biln dang
Mdt vin d l dat ra ddi vdi eua song Cii Ldn vl
song Cii Bl II viec xly dung d | p v l cira ngan chan
nude biln dang, II mdt vin d l cue ky nan giii
c Xdy dung he thdng bam kiem sodt muc nude
ngap cue bo
Qui luat thuy trilu cua bien Tay II muc nude
biln dang len theo miia, theo t h i n g v l theo ngly
hoac nua ngly Vi vay eiing ed nhung giai doan vio
miia mua mdi cd muc thiiy trilu dang cao eye dai
hoac trong thing vio diu miia kho mdi cd nhirng con
nude cudng trilu eao day nude biln sau vio trong ngi
dia Do dd, chiing ta eIn phli cd du In tinh toln elc
cong trinh he thdng bom nude du phdng cue bg cho
nhirng nam tilp theo, khi cd su cd v l muc nude biln
dang trong khu vue nIo thi chiing ta cd bien phip
kilm solt kip thdi d l d l phdng nude biln dang cao
d Bao ve vd khoi phuc rimg ngap man ven bien,
he thdng cdy xanh bao ve, chdng xdi la bd bien
Viec khoi phuc vl trdng lai rimg ngap man dgc
theo bd biln Kien Giang hi H I Tien d i n Cl Mau II
rlt cin thilt Vi vay cin cd du In khoi phue rimg
ngap man hen viing tir HI Tien din Chau Thinh
Nhung noi ed dai rimg ngap man nhd hon 50 m
chieu rong thi cin xay dung de phu va trdng rimg
ngap man phia sau de phu d l dai rimg d i m bio
chilu rdng tdi thilu II 50 m Nhung noi cd dilu kifen
tu nhien viing cd bai bdi h i n g nam dugc phu sa bdn
dip nhu vimg An Bien,- An Minh thi cin tiln h i n h
trdng lai rimg theo du In trdng rimg lan biln hoac
xiic tiln tai sinh khoi phuc rimg n h l m dim hlo
phdng hg chin sdng biln va chin gid bio ve de biln,
hlo ve nong nghiep va thiiy sin sau de biln tir An
Minh din Cl Mau Day II bd biln luon hi xdi Id,
hing nam bi sdng biln llm xdi Id sau vio trong dlt
liln, cin cd du In de ke chdng xdi Id theo thuc trang
hien nay
Sau de ngan man vl chdng nude biln dang xay
dung mo hinh canh tie cd he thdng cay xanh chdng
xdi Id, dai cay xanh cin phdi hgp voi cay an qui, cay
lau nam, cay lly g l v l cay chin gid bao ve miia mIng
e Xdy dtmg mo hinh sdng chung vd phii hap vai nude bien ddng
Ddng bing song Cim Long da co nhilu kinh nghiem h-ong viec xay dung n h l sdng chung vdi lu, nude biln dang, la mot thue trang hrong ddng voi Iii, nhung thdi gian dai hon va khIc nghiet hon, xam nhap man manh hon Viec xay dung mo hinh nhl tren cot II mdt mo hmh thilt thue Vi vay eIn cd du
In thu nghiem xay n h l tren cot d l phdng khi cd su
cd nude biln dang thi mo hinh nay se tao su img phd sdng chung voi nuoc biln dang co hieu qui
Mo hinh ling sdng chung vdi nuoc biln dang: Thuc chit ddng b i n g song Cim Long da ed mo hinh sdng chung vdi IQ II cle cum tuyln dan eu, da cd rlt nhilu du In triln khai tren h l u h i t tat c l cle tinh Do
dd mo hinh ling iing phd vdi nude biln dang chinh II cum tuyln dan eu nhtmg d mdt miic do cao hon, cong trinh phli qui mo vl do eao phli tuong iing voi
d i u kien nude biln dang, do cao cua cum tuyln phai cao hon 2 m so vdi hien nay
Mo hinh he canh tic phii hgp vdi nude biln dang: Thtre c h i t cua mo hinh canh tie II xay dtmg cle de bao cue bg timg viing, timg nong hg Mo hinh nly phli diu tu xay dung theo timg du In vl dugc thilt k i t chi tilt theo timg dilu kien cu fhl Trong dilu kien nude biln xam nhap vio ngi dia do nude biln dang thi mo hinh canh tie c.iing thich iing theo dilu kien, nhu: chgn loai cay trdng thich iing vdi dilu kidn chiu man va nuoi trdng thuy sin cung tuong thich vdi dilu kien tren
V KET LUAN Ttr nam 1975 d i n 2007 thdi gian II 22 nam: Nhiet
do binh quan nam sau 22 nam da tang len 2,48°C,
h i n g nam nhiet dp tang len 0,11°C Nhiet do binh quan tdi cao so voi ddi chiing chenh lech la 4,46°C, hang nam nhiet do tang len 0,20°C; nhiet do binh quan tdi thap so vdi ddi chung chenh lech gilm 3,72°C, h i n g nam nhiet do chenh lech thIp hon -0,17°C cho thay bien do nhiet ngly cang chenh lech,
ndng len theo thdi gian b nhiet do tdi cao va co xu huong lanh hon a nhiet do tdi thIp, bien do nhiet ed
xu hudng rong hon
Lugng mua hang nam sau 22 nam cho thay lugng mua binh quan eiia thang cao nhlt h n r nay la
Trang 8KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
286,43 mm so voi truoc day la 286,8 mm, luong mua
bmh quan tiilp nhlt sau 22 nam xIp xi nhau II11 mm
Tuy nhien, lugng mua cung phan bd khong diu, miia
mua tap trung vao mot sd thing, lugng mua binh
quan trong ngay cao hon nhilu, gay nhilu hien
tugng lu quet cue bg Trong mua kho thi ban ban
khIc nghiet hon din din hien tugng chly rung diln
ra nghiem trgng hon
Hien tugng nude biln dang la rat ro Muc nuoc
ngap trilu binh quan cao nhlt cung gia tang theo thdi
gian, d giai doan 1998 la 61 cm, thi din giai doan 2002
II 70 cm va giai doan 2007 II 71 cm; nhu vay nhin
tdng fhl so vdi nam 1998 thi miic gia tang 16 cm, vl
binh quan moi nam muc thiiy trilu tang 1,6 cm Muc
nude ngap binh quan eao hon sau 10 nam II10 em, nhu
vay mue nude ngap tang len mdi nam 111 cm
Nlu mue nude bien dang cao hon muc thiiy
chuln 0,5 m thi co hon 50% dien tich ddng bing ciia
tinh Kien Giang bi m i t chim trong nude biln, nlu
muc nude biln cao hon 1 m so voi mue thiiy chuan
thi cd 66% dien tich ddng bing ciia tinh bi chim trong
biln va nlu muc nude bien dang len d i n 1,5 m so vdi
muc thiiy chuan thi dien tich ddng bing eo tren 71%
hi chim trong nude
Cac giii phap ddi phd vdi biln ddi khi hau va
nude biln dang bao gdm cle giii phip tdng hgp
Trudc hit phli diu tu xay dung du an quan trie,
cinh bio sdm biln ddi khi hau vl nude bien dang;
tiep theo la xay dung du In diu tu he thdng de bao
va du In dap ngan nude bien, cira ngan cle ddng song, kenh, rach Tren dia ban tinh Kien Giang cd 71 cii'a nen day II mot vin d l k h i nan giii Ddng thdi xay dung du In tieu thoat nuoc cue bg va cle tram bom dgc theo bd biln dai hon 200 km cua tinh; xay dung he thdng dai rimg ngap man noi tdi thilu cQng rong hon 50 m d l ngan chan song bien va nuoc bien dang; xay dung he thdng cay xanh chan gio theo mo hinh canh tac tdng hgp phia sau de biln; xay dung
dy an mo hinh nha va mo hinh lang sdng chung vdi nude biln dang; xay dung mo hinh canh tic phii hgp vdi biln ddi khi hau vl nude biln dang va nghien cuu cay trdng, vat nuoi phu hgp voi dilu kien sinh thii mdi khi cd sy thay ddi moi trudng sdng
TAI UEU THAIVl K H A O
[1] Sd Tli nguyen v l Moi trudng Kien Giang (2008) Bio d o tdng hgp qui hoach bio ve moi trudng tinh Kien Giang den nam 2015 vl dinh hudng den nam 2020
[2] Vo Si Tuln (2005) He sinh thii ran san ho bien Viet Nam N h l Xult bin KHKT nam 2005 [3] Sd Nong nghiep- PTNT Oxfam - Birdlife International (2001) Bio tdn da dang sinh hgc vung dlt ngap nude Ha Tien- Kien Luong, Kien Giang nam 2001 [4] Nguyin Hiiu Bio (1984) Dac dilm khi hau tinh Kien Giang Dli Khi tugng Thiiy van tinh Kien Giang xult b i n nam 1984
STUDY ON THE STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, DISATER TRENDS,
EXPERIENCES FOR COASTAL AREAS PROTECTION, TOURISM AND NATURE
CONSERVATION IN KIEN GIANG PROVINCE
TTiai Thanh Luom Summary
The total area of Kien Giang province without excluding islands has an area of 570,373.9 ha In which U Minh Thuong area is 181,155 ha, Hau River West area is 150,688 ha Long Xuyen quadrangle area has an area of 238,550.9 ha Based on the hydro-meterologieal data if the sea water level increases 1 meter high the mainland of Kien Giang province only remains 37,161.8 ha over from sea level occupying for 6.51% of the total mainland land The climate change tendencies in the last 10 years shows to be disadvantage for people and extraordinary natural phenomena, such as increasing the temperature and more severe impacts, rainfall also fluctuate in recent years Changes in hydrology in recent years from the hydrological stations measured in Rach Gia shows that the maximal water level increased from 20 cm to 30 cm from the time of
2003 to 2007 as well as the minimum water level increased from 1 cm to 7 cm The hydro-meterological data shows the sea water level rises day to day The paper has evaluated the experiences and proposed the solutions for mitigation of the impacts of climate change and sea water level rise at Kien Giang in particuUar and the Cuu Long delta in general
Keywords: Climate change, nature conservation, Kien Giang province
Ngudi phan bifn: PGS.TS Luang Van Thanh