28 Co hoi thirc hif n dy an lien hop loc hda dau Nghi Sffn CO HOI TUlfC HIEN D U AN LIEN HOP LOC, HOA DAU NGHI SOTV • • • • • • '''' Ngd Duong Hiing Ban Lpe hod ddu Nghi San TOM T A T Viec khan truang xa[.]
Trang 12 8 Co hoi thirc hif n dy an lien hop loc hda dau Nghi Sffn_
CO HOI TUlfC HIEN D U AN LIEN HOP LOC, HOA DAU NGHI SOTV
• • • • • • '
Ngd Duong Hiing
Ban Lpe hod ddu Nghi San
TOM T A T
Viec khan truang xay dung vd hinh thdnh cdc khu cong nghiep loc, hod ddu nhdm chii dgng dap img ca bdn nhu cdu ciia ddt nuac ve xdng ddu vd cdc sdn phdm hod ddu la mot chu trirang lan ciia Chinh phii, xudt phdt tic doi hoi thuc te khdch quan ciia qud trinh phdt trien ben viing Trong thai gian vira qua Ban Loc, hod ddu Nghi Son (dan vi duac Tong cong ty Ddu khi Viet Nam giao nhiem vu true tiep thuc hien du dn) da tich cue trien khai vd hodn thdnh mot loat cdc cong tdc chudn bi ddu tic du dn Lien hap loc, hod ddu Nghi San: nghien ciru tien khd thi, khd thi dir dn, v.v Ket qud nghien ciru khd thi cho thay, du dn co tinh hieu qud kinh te khd hdp ddn, ddc biet ve khia canh thi truang
De thu hilt ddu tu nuac ngodi, gdn ddy Chinh phu dd quyet dinh keu goi ddu tu die
dn theo hinh thirc lien doanh Nhd ddu tic mrac ngodi co the gop von vai ty le chi phoi, thdm chi gop von 100% De khuyen khich ddu tu, Chinh phii ciing dd dua ra nhieu chinh sach ini ddi het sire quan trong, trong do co cd viec cho phep nhd ddu tu quyen phdn phoi cdc sdn phdm ciia du dn, ke cd bdn budn ciing nhu bdn le
Tren ca sir do trong thai gian vira qua Ban Loc, hod ddu Nghi San da vd dang tich cue xiic tien cong tdc quang bd rong rdi nhdm tim kiem cdc nhd ddu tu vai phuang chdm:
Du dn loc, hod ddu Nghi San ludn ma rong cua chao don cdc nhd ddu tu trong vd ngodi nuac nhdm muc tieu dua hodn thdnh du dn vao cuoi ndm 2010 dem lai lai ich thiet thirc cho ddt nuac ciing nhu cdc nhd ddu ttr
DAC DIEM CHINH CUA DU" A N
Ten Dy an: Lien hgp Igc, hoa dau Nghi Son
Dja dilm: Huyen Nghi Son - tinh Thanh Hoa
Cdng suat: 7 trieu tin dau thd/nam
Nguyen lieu: Diu thd Viet Nam (Su Tir Den) va diu thd Trung Ddng (Iran nhe, A-rap nhe, Dubai)
San pham: LPG, xang khdng chi, diu hda, nhien lieu phan lye, diezen, FO, nhya dudng, chit deo PolyPropylene (PP) va so sgi tong hgp PET
Tdng mire diu tu dy kiln: 2,952 ty USD
Hieu qua kinh tl - tai chinh
IRR = 14,2% vdi gia thilt ty le 35% vdn gdp/65% vdn vay
NPV (10%) = 390 trieu USD
Tiln do triln khai: Hoan thanh viec xay dyng va di vao van hanh cudi nam 2010
Trang 2Tuygn tap b^o cao Hoi nghj KHCN "30 nSm Dau khi Viet Nam: Co hoi mdi, thach thuc mdi" 29
XAY DlTNG LIEN HOfP LOC, HOA D A U NGHI SON L A YEU CAu T A T YEU
K H A C H QUAN
Tir nhung nam diu thap nien 1990 den nay, nen kinh te Viet Nam da cd nhirng bude phat triln manh me va da dat dugc nhiing thanh tuu to ldn trong rat nhieu ITnh vyc Dac biet, 3 nam gin day, mac dii cd rat nhieu nen kinh te, ke ca nhiing nen kinh te sieu cudng nhu My, Nhat Ban, Tay Au, v.v cung bi cudn vao vdng xoay lao dao do anh hudng nang
ne ciia tinh hinhi chinh trj bit dn tren toan the gidi, xung dot khu vyc gia tang, chii nghTa khiing bd qudc te leo thang, v.v nhung trong hoan canh do, Viet Nam van giir dugc tdc do phat trien eao va deu dan rat dang tu hao Tang trudng GDP eae nam 2002, 2003 va 2004
lin lugt la 7%, 7,2% va 7,5% {Ngudn: Vien Chiin luac Phdt triin, Bo KHDT)
Tuy nhien, theo bao cao ciia Dien dan Kinh te The gidi (WEF), neu di sau phan tich nguyen nhan cua su phat trien nay thi cd the thay rang sy tang trudng GDP nay chii yeu la
do tang trudng xuat khau cac mat hang nguyen lieu thd (dau thd, gao, cao su, v.v.) va cac mat hang cd ty trgng cdng nghe thap (hai san che bien ddng lanh, quan ao, giay dep, v.v.) Dieu nay phan anh mdt thuc te la nen cdng nghiep ciia Viet Nam phai ddng vai trd ddng lye chinh eua su phat trien va phai ed miic do tang trudng cao de dam bao kinh te phat trien ben viing
Do dd, tap trung siic de phat trien cdng nghiep theo hudng hien dai ludn la qudc sach hang dau ciia Dang va Nha nude ta Ddi vdi cac nen cdng nghiep phat trien, cdng nghiep lge, hoa dau ludn ddng vai trd quan trgng, chiem ty trgng ldn va la mdt trong nhiing ddng luc de phat trien cac nganh cdng nghiep khae Bdi le, cdng nghiep Igc, hda dau cung cap cac san pham xang dau la ngudn nang lugng ciia dat nude; chat deo, sgi tdng hgp, hoa chat, v.v la nguyen lieu san xuat cac mat hang thiet yeu phuc vy ddi sdng Tir trudc den nay, Viet Nam ludn phai nhap khau hau het cac san pham lge, hoa dau
de dap ling nhu cau ndi dia Trong khi dd, ciing vdi sy tang trudng ciia nen kinh te, nhu cau tieu thu cac loai nhien lieu tir dau md ciia Viet Nam ludn khdng ngimg gia tang vdi tdc do cao, du bao vao khoang 13 trieu tan/nam 2005 va se tang len 19 trieu tan/nam 2010 (Hinh 1)
•
D
D
D
Nhap kh£u Nghi Sofn Dung Quit Nhu cau
Hinh 1: Dy bao cung - cau san phSm loc dau
Trang 330 Co hoi thirc hifn dir in lien hop loc hda dSu NgjijjgJl
Ben canh dd, cac san pham hoa dau vdi 2 nhdm san pham chii chdt la chat deo va so sgi tdng hgp cung cd sire tieu thy rat ldn: I trieu tan/nam 2005 va dat mirc 1.7 trieu tin/nam 2010 (Hinh 2) NIU nhu chi triln khai mdt minh NMLD Dung Quit thi vao nam
2008 (thdi diem dy kien nha may di vao boat dgng) ciing chi dap irng khoang 40% nhu ciu nhien lieu cho thi trudng trong nude vao thdi diem dd, 60% cdn lai vin phai dya vao nhap khiu va con sd nay se tiep tue gia tang manh trong cac nam tiep theo Chinh vi vay, cin thilt phai xay dyng them cac khu cdng nghiep Igc, hoa dau de cd the chii ddng trong viec dap irng co ban nhu cau trong nude
2000
1600
c 1200
2000 2005 2010 2015 Hinh 2: Dir bao nhu cau siin pham hoa dau
Them vao dd, vdi mot dat nude cd thj trudng trai dai gan 3000km nhu Viet Nam chiing ta thi cac co sd lge, hoa dau cung can dugc phan bd tren ca ba mien Bae Trung -Nam Viec phan bd nay la hoan toan hgp ly, khdng chi ve phuang dien hieu qua kinh te (tiet kiem chi phi van chuyen san pham) ma con ca tren phuang dien an ninh - qudc phdng
Xuat phat tir quan diem dd, chii truang quyet tam xay dyng va hinh thanh ba khu cdng nghiep Igc, hoa dau d ba mien ciia dat nude la hoan toan dung dan
Nhu vay, cd the thay rang viec phai xay dyng cho dugc Lien hgp lge, hoa dau Nghi Son rd rang la mdt viec lam phii hgp vdi chii truong ldn ndi tren va xuit phat tir ddi hdi tat yeu khaeh quan cua qua trinh phat trien bin virng cua dit nude
NHUNG NO LUC TRIEN KHAI DlT A N
Trong thdi gian qua, song song vdi dy an nha may lge diu Dung Quat, cac cdng tac chuan bj cho viec dau tu xay dyng Lien hgp Igc, hoa diu Nghi Son ciing dang dugc xuc tien hel sire khan truong
Trong nam 2001, Tdng cdng ty Diu khi Viet Nam vdi sy hgp tac ciia Cdng ty JGC
va Mitsubishi (Nhat Ban) da hoan thanh va trinh Thii tudng Chinh phii Bao cao Nghien ciru Tiln kha thi Dy an Lien hgp lge, hoa diu Nghi San Sau khi tham djnh, ngay
5-8-2002, Thu tudng Chinh phii da ra quylt djnh sd 647/QD-TTg phe duyet Bao cao Tiln kha thi va cho phep tiep tuc lap Bao cao Kha thi Dy an
Trang 4Tuygn tap bao cao Hpi nghj KHCN "30 nam Dau khi Vift Nam: C o hpi mdi, thach thiic mdi" 31
Thyc hien chi dao cua Chinh phii va Tdng cdng ty Diu khi Viet Nam, trong nam
2003 - 2004, da phdi hgp vdi cac nha thiu trong nude tiln hanh cac cdng tac khao sat, thu thap sd lieu vl thj trudng, dilu kien ty nhien dia hinh, dja chat cdng trinh, v.v phuc vu lap Bao cao kha thi Dong thdi, da thyc hien:
- Ky Hgp ddng Tu van ky thuat vdi Cdng ty ABB Lummus Global (My) de nghien ciru so dd cdng nghe tdi uu va cac van de ky thuat khae lien quan
- Ky Thoa thuan hgp tac vdi Cdng ty Mitsubishi de ciing phdi hgp danh gia hieu qua kinh te dy an va nghien ciru thu xep tai chinh
Y thirc dugc tam quan trgng ciia viec nghien cim tinh kha thi ciia dy an, cac cdng tac chuan bj, tap hgp sd lieu dau vao phye vu nghien eiru bao gdm: khao sat, thu thap sd lieu
ve dieu kien ty nhien khu vyc Nghi Son, tinh chat nguyen Ijeu dau thd, khao sat thj trudng san pham lge, hoa dau trong va ngoai nude, v.v da dugc thyc hien mdt each cd chit lugng
Cdng tac do ve ban dd dja hinh da dugc thue hien tren dien tich hon lOOOha dit liln vdi ty le 1/2000 va 60km^ mat bien vdi ty le 1/10.000 phye vy viee thiet ke va lya chgn vj tri cac hang muc ciia dy an
Tren co sd cac dja diem da dugc lya chgn cho tiing hang muc cy the, cdng tac khao sat dja chat cdng trinh khu vyc Nghi San da dugc thyc hien ca tren dat lien va tren bien Cac hd khoan vdi do khoan sau tdi da 60m dugc bd tri theo mang ludi 200m x 200m phii
SBM,
250,000 Dwr
Sub sea crude oil pipeline
Product pipeline
Product jetties, 30,000 DWT
BIEN
BONG
Hinh 3 Tong mat bSng khu Lien hop loc, hoa dau Nghi Son
Trang 532 Co hoi thuc hien dy an lien hop loc hda dau NgjijjglL
tren dien tich hon 800ha dit lien de xac djnh cac dac tinh vl dja chit cdng trinh phuc vy cho viec bd tri mat bing va thiet ke mdng ciia nha may Cac hd khoan khae vdi do khoan sau tdi da 15m cung dugc bd tri tren dien tich ISOOha day bien de xac djnh dja tang phye
vy viec thilt kl nao vet khu ben nhap dau thd, ben xuat san pham va ludng tau Ket qua bude diu cho thiy, d tit ca cac khu vyc dat lien da khao sat ldp da mdng chii yeu nam d
do sau 20m - 38m va khdng thiy ldp da rin xuat hien d do sau nao vet thudc cac khu vyc day biin da khao sat Day la dilu kien ty nhien thuan lgi cho viee xay dyng du an vi giup giam chi phi cai tao dieu kien ty nhien
Ben canh dd, viec khao sat thiiy, hai van da dugc tiln hanh mdt each quy md Cac thdng so nay dugc kit hgp vdi cac sd lieu thong ke trong 40 nam gan day ciia eactrarn lan can thudc he thdng quan trie quoc gia dl trd thanh sd lieu dau vao phye vy thiet ke cac hang myc edng trinh bien
Viec nghien cim, dy bao dien biin ciia thj trudng khu vyc (cung - ciu, gia ca, v.v ) cung nhu tren thi gidi da dugc thyc hien bdi Tap doan danh tieng My Chemsystem Cac nghien cim vl thj trudng, van chuyen ndi dja cung da dugc thuc hien vdi sy phdi hgp chat che ciia cac td chirc tu vin uy tin trong nude nhu: Vien Chien luge Phat trien (Bd Ke hoach va dau tu), Cdng ty Tu van xang dau (Petrolimex), v.v
Ket qua cac nghien cim tren da dua ra nhiing nhan djnh, danh gia khaeh quan, sat vdi thyc te thj trudng lam co sd cho qua trinh tinh toan hieu qua kinh te ciia dy an
Ddi vdi van de nguyen lieu, cac loai dau thd cua Viet Nam va mdt sd loai dau thd Trung Ddng thdng dyng tren the gidi deu dugc nghien cim, xem xet kha nang lam nguyen lieu cho dy an nham dam bao tinh linh hoat hgp ly trong viec lya chgn nguyen lieu
Ve chat lugng san pham ciia dy an, viec nghien cim nham de xuat mire thich hgp de
ap dyng cho dy an cung da dugc tien hanh mdt each het sire than trgng va ky ludng vdi muc tieu chat lugng dua ra phai phii hgp vdi hoan canh cy the ciia Viet Nam nhung van phai dam bao tinh canh tranh so vdi san pham ciing loai cua khu vuc De dat dugc muc tieu dd, viee nghien ciiu khdng chi dya tren co sd de xuat ciia Tu van ky thuat ABB Lummus Global ma tat ca cac bd, nganh lien quan deu duge mdi tham khao y kien Cudi ciing, Bd tieu chuan chat lugng, tuong duong tieu chuan ap dyng d chau Au giai doan
2006 - 2008 da dat dugc sy nhat tri cao eiia tat ca chuyen gia de chgn ap dung cho dy an Phuang phap nghien cim tuong ty ciing dugc ap dung ddi vdi tieu chuan mdi trudng He thdng tieu chuan dugc dang gia la kha nghiem ngat (tuong duong tieu chuan chau Au va My hien tai) da dugc de xuat de ap dung eho du an nhim giam thilu toi da nhting tac ddng den mdi trudng xung quanh
Vdi nhiing yeu cau ve "dau vao" va "dau ra" neu tren, mdt so dd che bien toi uu ap dyng cae cdng nghe lge, hoa dau tien tien (Hinh 3) ciing vdi he thdng cac hang myc phy trg hoan chinh da dugc Tu vin ABB Lummus Global dl xuit tren co sd lya chgn hon 50 phuong an khae nhau Phuong an duge dl xuit nay dam bao viec san xuat ra cac loai san pham vdi co cau, chung loai phong phii va phii hgp vdi nhu cau cua thj trudng Viet Nam Trong dd, 2 loai san phim xang va diezen la cac san pham dugc tieu thy nhieu nhit tren thj trudng chiem tdi hon 60% tdng cdng suit ciia Lien hgp Ddng thdi, phuang an nay ciing chinh la sy kit hgp hgp ly giira lge diu va hoa dau, dam bao hieu qua kinh te tdi da cua ca du an
Trang 6Tuygn tap bao cao Hoi nghj KHCN "30 n^m Dau khi Vift Nam: Co hQi mdi, thach thiic mdi" 33
LPG
•* BTX
— ,
NHT
Cat REF
• ISOM - I T - *
CDU
ci a (
VDU
- HMU =
VGO HDS
•RFCC
f*— 2-stage cfltaiyc regeneratot
- Catalyst coolet
^ CO boiler
fcOffgas scrubbi
Blowing
-LPG
PET
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
PP
Fuel Oil! Bitumen
STD/DB 50/50- EU3 specs BOILER C'ff G
Hinh 4: So' do cong nghe toi uu
Tilp theo, tren co sd quy md va edng nghe nhu vay, cac tinh toan nham dua ra dy toan tdng mirc diu tu va danh gia hieu qua kinh te ciia Dy an da dugc tien hanh Ket qua cho thiy dy an doi hdi mirc diu tu kha cao, xip xi 3 ty USD, tuy nhien lai cd hieu qua kinh tl kha hip dan: IRR dat tren 14% vdi gia thilt ca ciu tai chinh 30% vdn gdp/70% vdn vay
Cac phuong an thu xip tai chinh cho Dy an da dugc ddi tac Mitsubishi Corp nghien ciiu mdt each linh boat tren co sd tit ea cae ngudn vay, bien phap huy ddng vdn trong va ngoai nude
Ben canh dd, danh gia tac ddng mdi trudng cung la mdt ndi dung nghien cuu quan trgng da dugc thyc hien mdt each bai ban Cac ndi dung lien quan den ve tae ddng mdi trudng, kit ciu ha ting phuc vy triln khai du an, co cau td chirc Lien hgp, ke hoach trien khai dy an, danh gia tinh canh tranh ciia du an, v.v da dugc nghien cim ky cang
Bao cao Kha thi Du an da dugc Tu van tham dinh nude ngoai, Hdi ddng tham tra Tdng cdng ty Dau khi Viet Nam va Hdi ddng Thim djnh Nha nude danh gia la cdng phu
va dam bao chat lugng Ddng thdi, nhirng gdp y ciia cae bd, nganh va Hdi ddng da dugc tilp thu va chinh sira, nghien ciru bd sung dl trinh Chinh phii phe duyet
Trang 734 Co hoi thuc hifn dy an lien hpp loc hda diu NghjjgIL
CO HQi CHO c A c N H A D A U TU^
Kit qua cua nghien cim kha thi da chi rd dy an Lien hgp loc, hoa dau Nghi San la
dy an mang tinh kha thi va cd hieu qua kinh te hap dan Dac biet, can can cung - cau cua thi trudng Viet Nam vdi 60% nhu ciu van cdn de ngd (trong trudng hgp Nha may loc dau Dung Quit van hanh vao nam 2009) la mdt lgi the hit sire co ban ciia dy an
Ben canh do, cdn cd thi thiy ring viec tiln hanh diu tu xay dyng dy an vao thdi dilm hien nay dang gap nhilu thuan lgi khaeh quan Kinh tl thi gidi ndi chung va d khu vyc ndi rieng sau mdt thdi gian dai suy thoai nay da phue hdi, dan den nhu ciu ve xang dau tang cao vugt cdng suit ciia cac nha may Igc diu hien cd Tat ca cac nha may Igc dau trong khu vuc diu dang van hanh hit cdng suit vdi lgi nhuan da dat tdi 9 - lOUSD/thiing Hoan toan khae vdi thdi ky each day 5 6 nam, khi iy cac nha may chi van hanh 60% -70% cdng suit thilt kl trong khi lgi nhuan chi dat 2 - 3USD/thiing, tham chi cd nhung thdi dilm lgi nhuan "am" Ddng thdi, trong thdi gian vira qua, cac cdng ty diu md da tich luy dugc nhilu lgi nhuan tir viec gia diu thd tang nen cd nhu cau tai dau tu, md rdng cac hoat ddng kinh doanh cua minh, dae biet trong khau sau Tit ca nhiJng yeu td tren dang
md ra co hdi diu tu cho du an Lien hgp Igc, hoa dau Nghi Son
NIU xet rieng trong khu vyc Ddng Nam A, Trung Qudc va An Do thi trong thdi gian tir nay tdi nam 2010 se phai xay dung mdi vai nha may Igc dau (NMLD) cdng suat
cd vira (7 - 8 trieu tin/nam/nha may) dl dap img sy gia tang ve nhu cau ndi tren Hien nay, rit nhilu nude trong khu vyc, trong dd cd Thai Lan, Trung Qudc, An Do, v.v deu dang cd nhu ciu xay dung mdi cac NMLD Nhu vay, dy an LHD Nghi Son hien dang phai canh tranh manh me vdi cac NMLD nay de thu hut vdn dau tu tir cac nha dau tu nude ngoai
Xuit phat tir ly do do, vira qua Thii tudng Chinh phu da quyet djnh keu ggi dau tu cho du an theo hinh thiic lien doanh Nha dau tu nude ngoai ed the gdp vdn vdi ty le chi phdi, tham chi gdp vdn 100% De khuyen khich dau tu, Chinh phii eiing da quyet djnh cho phep nha dau tu ciia dy an nay quyen phan phdi cac san pham cua dy an, ke ea ban budn ciang nhu ban le Day cd the dugc xem nhu mdt quyet djnh mang tinh dot pha vi tir trudc den nay, chi cd mdt sd cac cdng ty trong nude mdi cd quyen phan phdi xang, diezen, dau hoa, v.v la cac san pham van dugc xem la san pham chien luge Dieu nay chac chan tao
ra sire hap dan manh me vi lgi nhuan rat cao thu dugc tir khau phan phdi se gdp phan gia tang dang ke hieu qua kinh te ciia toan bd du an
Ben canh do, cac chinh sach uu dai khae lien quan den thue, ket cau ha tang ngoai hang rao dy an, chinh sach djnh gia ban san pham, v.v cung dang dugc cac bd, nganh va Chinh phu ciing vdi Tdng edng ty Dau khi Viet Nam khan truang nghien ciru de ap dyng cho dy an vdi muc tieu tao ra cac dieu kien hap dan hon ntia thu hut cae nha dau tu den vdi dy an Lien hgp lge, hoa dau Nghi Son
Chinh vi vay, thdi gian qua Ban lge, hoa diu Nghi Son da va dang tich eye xuc tiln cdng tac quang ba rdng rai nhim tim kiem cac nha dau tu Da cd nhieu cdng ty tap doan diu khi cua Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, chau Au, My, v.v td ra hit sire quan tam va thi hien mong mudn tham gia dau tu dy an
Trang 8Tuygn tap bao cao Hpi nghj KHCN "30 nSm Dau khi Vift Nam: Co hpi mdi, thach thiic mdi" 3 £
Dy an Lien hgp Igc, hoa diu Nghi Son la mdt trong nhung dy an trgng diem qudc
gia Viec hoan thanh Dy an vao nam 2010 se dam bao hieu qua dau tu eao, dem lai lgi ich
kinh tl cho dit nude ciing nhu cae nha dau tu, ddng gdp vao sy nghiep edng nghiep hoa,
hien dai boa dat nude