Economic Growth and Government Subventions for Agriculture Sector in Algeria An ARDL Model a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( 2 0 1 6 ) 105 – 114 Available online at www[.]
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* Corresponding author
Email address: mokhtarifaycal@gmail.com
Peer review under responsibility of Holy Spirit University of Kaslik
xxxx-xxxx/$ ± see front matter © 2016 Holy Spirit University of Kaslik Hosting by Elsevier B.V All rights reserved
ΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ ΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϟϭϱΩ
ϲ
ήΰΠϟϲϓ
ΕϮΠϔϠϟϲΗάϟέΪΤϧϻΝΫϮϤϨϟΎϘϓϭ
ΔϋίϮϤϟΔϴϨϣΰϟ
Economic Growth and Government Subventions for Agriculture Sector in Algeria: An ARDL Model
a University of Mascara, Algeria
b
University of Mascara, Algeria
ARTICLE INFO
Article history:
Received 10 May 16
Received in revised form 28 September
16
Accepted 03 October 16
ΔϴΣΎΘϔϤϟΕΎϤϠϜϟ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϹϮϤϨϟ
ϢϋΪϟ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟ
ARDL Keywords:
Economic growth
Support
Agricultural sector
ARDL
κΨϠϣ
ϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϟήϴΛ΄ΗΔγέΩϰϠϋϝΎϘϤϟΰϛήϳ ϟ
ΔγέΪϟΪϤΘόΗϭήΰΠϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨ ϼϋέΎΒΘΧϰϠϋ
ϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϗ
ΔϋίϮϤϟ ΔϴϨϣΰϟ ΕϮΠϔϠϟ ϲΗάϟ έΪΤϧϻ ΝΫϮϤϨϟ ΎϘϓϭ ΄τΨϟ ϴΤμΗ ΝΫϮϤϧϭ ϙήΘθϤϟ Autoregressive-Distributed Lag
(ARDL) ϞΒϗϦϣέϮτϤϟ
Pesaran and al (2001)
ϝϼΧΔϳϮϨγΕΎϴτόϤϟϚϟΫϭˬ
ΓήΘϓ
ϢϋΩϥϰϟ·ΞΎΘϨϟΕέΎηΪϗϭ
ΝΎΘϧϹ
ϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟϞΑΎϘϤϟϲϓϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΎΒϠγήΛΆϳϭˬϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΎϴΑΎΠϳ·ήΛΆϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭϲΣϼϔϟ ϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΎόϣϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΎΑΎΠϳ·ήΛΆϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭΝΎΘϧϹΎΑϪΘϗϼϋϦϋήψϨϟξϐΑϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟ Ϟ
ΒΗΎϤϛ
ϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟΔϤϫΎδϣϥΔγέΪϟϦϴ ϛήΒΘόϳϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϲϓ
Μ ϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟΔϳΩήϔϟϟΎμϤϟϰϠϋήμΘϘϤϟϢϋΪϟϦϣΔϴϤϫή
ABSTRACT
The article analyzes the impact of government support of the agricultural sector on the economic growth in Algeria The study is based on cointegration relation and error correction model according to Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model developed by Pesaran and al (2001) The results indicated that the support
of agriculture production and producers has a positive impact on the agricultural growth, while it has a negative impact on the economic growth in the long term On the other side, the total agricultural support regardless of its relationship with production and producers has a positive impact on agricultural production growth and economic growth in the long term Finally, the total support of the agricultural sector is more important than individual support for agricultural producers
© 2016 Holy Spirit University of Kaslik Hosting by Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.
2214-4625/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aebj.2016.10.001
Trang 2ΔϣΪϘϣ
ωΎτϘϟϢϋΩήΒΘόϳ ϲΣϼϔϟ
Ϧϣ
ϦϣΪϳΪόϟϲϓΓΪϤΘόϤϟΔϳΩΎμΘϗϹΕΎγΎϴδϟϢϫ
ˬϝϭΪϟ
ΐΒδΑϚϟΫϭ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϐϟΎΒϟΔϴϤϫϷ
ϲϓϪΘϤϫΎδϣϭ
ϮϤϨϟ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
γέΪϟϞϜϓ
ΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟΕΎ
ΔϤϫΎδϣϥϰϠϋΪϛΆΗ τϘϟ
Ύ
ϲΣϼϔϟω
ϲϓ ωΎτϘϟΎϓˬήΧϰϟ·ΩΎμΘϗϦϣϒϠΘΨϳϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ
ϲΣϼϔϟ
ΪΟαΎδΣ
˯ί·
ΔϴϣϮϜΣΓϮτΧΔϳϭΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕϼΧΪΘϟ ϢϋΪϟϭϝΎΠϤϟϲϓ
ήηΎΒϤϟ
ΗΪϗ
˷ΛΆ
ϰϠϋή
ϭωΎτϘϟ
ϰϠϋ ΩΎμΘϗϻ
ϞϜϛ
ϭ
ήηΎΒϤϟϢϋΪϟΕ˯ήΟ·ήΒΘόΗϚϟάϟ ήηΎΒϤϟήϴϐϟϭ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟ
ϖϴϘΤΘϟΕΎϣϮϜΤϟΎϫΪϤΘόΗϲΘϟΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕΎγΎϴδϟϢϫϦϣ
ωΎτϘϠϟϢΩϮϤϧ ϭ
ϟ ϋυΎϔΤϠ
ϪΘϴδϓΎϨΗϰϠ
ϦϜϟϭ
ϰϟ·ΓέΎηϹέΪΠΗ
ϧ
ϥϮϜϳΪϗϪ
Ϡϟ
ΕήϴΛ΄ΗϢϋΪ ωΎτϘϟΝέΎΧήΒϛ
ϱϑΪϬΘδϤϟ
ήϴϏΕΎϋΎτϘϟϩΎΠΗΎΑ ˬΔϴΣϼϔϟ
ϭ ϋήΛΆϳΪϗ
ϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϭκϴμΨΘϟΓ˯ΎϔϛϰϠϋήϴΛ΄ΘϟϝϼΧϦϣϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠ
ΔλΎΧΝΎΘϧϹ
ϦϜϤϳΎϤϛ ϟ
ΔψΣϼϤ ϵϥ
ΛΎ ϴΑΎΠϳϹέ Δ
ΕΎϧΎϋϺϟ
ήϬψΗϢϋΪϟϭ
Ϧϣ ΕϼΧΪϤϟϡΪΨΘγΓΩΎϳίϭΔΣϼϔϟϲϓέΎϤΜΘγϻΕέήϗϰϠϋήϴΛ΄ΘϟϝϼΧ
ΎϣϮϫϭ
ΓΩΎϳίϰϟ·ϱΩΆϳ
ϓϖϠΧϭΝΎΘϧϹ
ιή
ήϴΛ΄Θϟϰϟ·ΔϓΎο·ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϞΧΩΔϴϓΎο·ϞϤϋ
Ε
ϴΑΎΠϳϹ
Δ
ΔϴϟΎόϔϟϭΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋ ˬΔϴϨϘΘϟ
ΘϟϝΎΧΩ·ϭέΎϜΘΑϻϰϠϋΕΎϧΎϋϹϩάϫΕΰϔΣ
ΕΎϴϨϘ
ΕΎϧΎϋϺϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄ΘϟΎϣΓΪϳΪΠϟ
ϓ
ϳΪϘ
ϡΪόΑςΒΗή
ˬκϴμΨΘϟΓ˯Ύϔϛ
ήϴΛ΄ΗϪϟϥϮϜϳΚϴΤΑ ϹϰϠϋϲΒϠγ
ϭΔϴΟΎΘϧ
ϲΘϟ
ϲϓΓΩΎϳΰϟ˯ήΟϦϣξϔΨϨΗΪϗ ˬΕΎϧΎϋϹ
΄ΠϠϳΚϴΣ ϥϮΣϼϔϟ
ϢϋΪϟϦϣϥϭΪϴϔΘδϤϟ
ϰϟ·
ΕϼΧΪϤϟϡΪΨΘγϦϣϞϴϠϘΘϟ
ΔΠϴΘϧ
ϢϬρΎΒΗέ
ΓήηΎΒϤϟΔϴϣϮϜΤϟΕΎμμΨϤϟΎΑ
ϭ
Ϊϗ
ήϴΛ΄ΗΔϘϳήρϦϴΒΗϥ˶ΕΎγέΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟΖϟϭΎΣ
ˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟ
ϓ
ΪϳΪΤΗϰϠϋΕΰϛέΕΎγέΪϟξόΒ ήΛΔλΎΧΔϔμΑϭϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΔϴϟΎόϓϰϠϋϢϋΪϟήΛ
ωΎτϘϟΝέΎΧϢϋΪϟΞΎΘϧΓΎϋήϣϥϭΩϦϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΔϟΎϤόϟϭΝΎΘϧϹϰϠϋϢϋΪϟ ΎϤϨϴΑ
˷ϛέ Εΰ
ϯήΧΕΎγέΩ
ϞϴϠΤΗϰϠϋ
ήϴϐΘϣήϴΧϷάϫϞόΠΑϚϟΫϭˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϢϋΪϟήΛ
Η
ˬΎόΑΎ
ΟΎΘϧ·ϥέΎΒΘϋΎΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋήΛϷρΎϘγ·ϢΘϳϭΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήΛΔγέΩϝϼΧϦϣϭ ϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘ ϼόϟΕΩΪΤϣϢϫϦϣ
ϦϴΑΔϗ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭΔΣϼϔϟ ϒϨλϙΎϨϫϭ
ϦϣήΧ
ϦϴΑΖϧέΎϗΕΎγέΪϟ
ΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΔϟΎϤόϟϭΝΎΘϧϹΐγΎϜϣ
ϲ
ΎϬϠϤΤΘϳϲΘϟΔϔϠϜΘϟϊϣ
ΩΎμΘϗϻ
ϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟΞϣήΑ˯ήΟϦϣ
ΔϳήψϨϟΕΎΑέΎϘϤϟ
ΕΎΑέΎϘϤϟϦϴΒΗ ΔϳήψϨϟ
theoretical approaches
ϥ
ϟ
ϟϢϋΪ
ϲϣϮϜΤ
ΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋΎΒϠγήΛΆϳϦϴΣϲϓˬϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϰϠϋΎΑΎΠϳ·ήΛΆϳ ΔϴϨϘΘϟΓ˯ΎϔϜϟϭ
Ciaian and Swinnen
(2009)
ϱ
ϥ
ϠϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΩ
ΪϗϡϮϬϔϤϟάϬϟΎϘϓϭϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘ ϳ
ϪϟϥϮϜ
έΎΛ ΔϴΑΎΠϳ·
ΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔϟϰϠϋϲΒϠδϟΎϫήϴΛ΄ΗΐΒδΑωΎτϘϟΝέΎΧΔϴΒϠγέΎΛϪϟϥϮϜΗϦϴΣϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϰϠϋ
ϲϓϭ
βϔϧ
ϩΎΠΗϻ ˬ
ϥΈϓ
ΕΎγέΪϟ
ΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟ
empirical studies
ήϴΛ΄ΘϟϝϮΣΎΒϳήϘΗϖϔΘΗΔϗϼόϟϩάϫϦϣϖϘΤΘϠϟ ϲΑΎΠϳϹ
ϟ ϢϋΪϠ
ϲϣϮϜΤϟ
ϪΟϮϤϟ
ΝΎΘϧϹ ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΕήηΆϣϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟ
ΔϟΎϤόϟϭ
ˬ
ϥήϴϏ
ϝΪΠϟ
ϟϝϮΣΎϤΎϗϰϘΒϳ
ΞϣήΒϟϩάϬϟΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔ ϰϠϋΎϫήϴΛ΄Ηϭ
ήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻ
ˬϲΣϼϔϟ
ϭ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ
ϭ ϊϤΘΠϤϟΔϴϫΎϓέ
ϦϴϋέΰϤϟϰϠϋϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϠϟήηΎΒϤϟήΛϷϝΎΠϣϲϓ ˬ
ΔγέΩϦϴΒΗ Rosine and Helmberger (1974) ϡΪΨΘγΎΑ
ϥϡΎόϟϥίϮΘϟΔϘϳήρ
ΎΒϳήϘΗ
ϢϋΪϟΞϣΎϧήΑΪϮϓϦϣΔΎϤϟϲϓ
ϲΣϼϔϟ
ϲϓ Ϯϟ
ΓΪΤΘϤϟΕΎϳϻ
ϲοέϷϙϼϣϰϠϋΩϮόΗ
˷ΪϗΪϗϭ έ
ϥΎΜΣΎΒϟ
ΓέΎδΧϥ
ΐήπϟϲόϓΩϭϦϴϜϠϬΘδϤϟ
ϲϫ
έϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣ
ϞΑΎϘϣ
έΎϴϠϣ
έϻϭΩ ϛ
ϰϟ·ϥΎΜΣΎΒϟέΎηΎϤϛϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟΐγΎϜϤ
ˬΔϴϜϳήϣϷΓΪΤΘϤϟΕΎϳϻϮϠϟΔΣϼϔϟϢϋΩΞϣήΑϦϋϢΟΎϧέϻϭΩϞϛϥ
ΐϫάΗ
ˬϲοέϷϙϼϣϰϟ·ΎΘϨγ
ϜΗϭ ϊϤΘΠϤϟϒϴϟΎ
ϲϫ
ϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔϠϟΓέΎδΨϛΎΘϨγ
ΔγέΩΔ Bale and Lutz (1981)
ϝϮΣ
ϲϓΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔϟϰϠϋΔϴΣϼϔϟΔγΎϴδϟήΛ
ϝϭΩ
ΖϨϴΑ
ΔϳήόδϟΕΎγΎϴδϟϥ
ϢϋΪϟΞϣήΑΔΠϴΘϧΓΪϤΘόϤϟ
ωΎτϘϠϟΔϬΟϮϤϟ
ϲΣϼϔϟ
ϴϠϜϟΔϴϫΎϓήϠϟΔϔϠϜϣ
Δ
Ύϣ
Gardner (1986)
ΪϘϓ
ϮΗ
Ϟλ
ΔϴΣϼϔϟΕ˯ήΟϺϟϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΔϴϠΤϤϟΔϔϠϜΘϟϥϰϟ·
ϲϓΖϠΜϤΗΓΪΤΘϤϟΕΎϳϻϮϟϲϓ
ΏΐγΎϜϣ
ΎϬϠΑΎϘϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϟΎμϟέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣ
ϦϴϜϠϬΘδϤϠϟήΎδΧέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣ
ΐήπϟϲόϓΩϭ
Ύϣ
ϨϟΎΑ
ΓΩΎϋ·ϲϓΕΎϧΎϋϹΔϴϟΎόϔϟΔΒδ ϊϳίϮΗ
ϞΧΪϟ
ˬ
ϞλϮΗΪϘϓ ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϟ
ϰϟ·
ΩϮΟϭ
ϦϴΑΔϴΒϠγΔϗϼϋ
ϢΠΣ ΕΎϧΎϋϹ
ΔμμΨϤϟ
ΔΣϼϔϠϟ ϦϴΑϕέϮϔϟϭ
ΔΣϼϔϟϲϓϝΎϤόϟϞϴΧΪϣ
ϲϓϝΎϤόϟϭ
ΕΎϋΎτϘϟ ϯήΧϷ
ΎϤϛ ΎπϳφΣϻ
ϢΤΗϢϟϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴγϥ
ϲϓϦϴϋέΰϤϟ
ˬαϼϓϹϦϣΓΪΤΘϤϟΕΎϳϻϮϟ
Δϴόοϭϥϭ
ϦϣΔϤϼϣϦδΣΖδϴϟϦϴΣϼϔϟ
ΔϴϤΤϤϟήϴϏΕΎϋΎτϘϟΔϴϘΑ
ϛ
ΎϤ
ΔγέΩΖΤοϭ Hedley and al (1989)
ςϘϓϥ
ϬΟϮϤϟΓΪϤγϸϟϲϟΎϤϟϢϋΪϟϦϣ Δ
ΔΣϼϔϠϟ ΔϴδϴϧϭΪϧϹ
ΘϗϻΎϬϨϣΪϴϔΘδϳ ϋέΰϤϟϥΎϤϛΩΎμ
ϴ
Ϧ ϮϤϠΘδϳϻϢϋΪϟάϫϦϣϦϳΩϮμϘϤϟ
ϥ
ϻ·
ΔϴϟΎϤϟϪΘϤϴϗϦϣ
ΪϴϔΘδϤϟϰϘΒϳϭ
ϮϫϢϋΪϟϦϣήΒϛϷ
ωΎτϗ
ΝΎΘϧ·
ΓΪϤγϷ
ˬϊϳίϮΘϟ
ϭ ήϳΪμΘϟ
ˬ
ΓΪϤγϸϟΩήϴΘγϻϭ
ΔϴδϴήϟΔΠϴΘϨϟϭ
ΗΔγέΪϠϟ Ά
ϰϠϋΪϛ
ΩϮΟϭ
ήΎδΧ
· ϴΘϧΔϳΩΎμΘϗ
ϢϋΪϠϟΔΠ
ϓ ϩΎΠΗϻβϔϧϲ
ˬ
ΔγέΩΪϛΆΗ ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϟ
ϰϠϋ
ΔϳΎϤΤϟ˯Ύϐϟ·ϥϰϟ·ˬϲδϧϮΘϟΩΎμΘϗϼϟϲΑΎδΤϟϡΎόϟϥίϮΘϠϟΝΫϮϤϧϡΪΨΘγ
ϰϠϋ
ϊϓήϳ ΔϴϛήϤΠϟϡϮγήϟ˯Ύϐϟ· ΔϴδϧϮΘϟΔΣϼϔϟ
ΏϲϟΎϤΟϹϲϠΤϤϟΞΗΎϨϟϮϤϧϦϣ
Ü
ϰϟ·ϱΩΆϳΎϤϛ
ΏΔϴΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻΕΎϋΎτϗΔϴϘΒϟϲϠΤϤϟΞΗΎϨϟϮϤϧωΎϔΗέ
ϼϔϟϦϴΣϲϓ
ϫ˯ήΟϦϣήδΨΗΔΣ
˯ήΟϹά
ΞΗΎϨϟϦϣ
ˬϲϠΤϤϟ
ΓέΎδΧϰϟ·ΔϓΎοϹΎΑ
άϫΐδΣϥΫ·ϯήΧϷΕΎϋΎτϘϟϑήρϦϣκΘϤΗϥΐΠϳϲΘϟΔΣϼϔϟϲϓϞϤϋΐμϨϣ ˬϞϴϠΤΘϟ
ϦϴΣϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϰϠϋΐγΎϜϤΑΩϮόϳϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΔϳΎϤΣ
νήόΘΗ
ΔϴϘΑ
ΕΎϋΎτϘϟ ΩΎμΘϗϻ
Δϳ ϧήΎδΨϟ ΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔϟνΎϔΨϧϦϋΔΠΗΎ
ΖϨϴΑΪϘϓΔϛήΘθϤϟΔϴΣϼϔϟΕΎγΎϴδϟιϮμΨΑΎϣ
ΔγέΩ Costa and al (2009) ϝϼΧϦϣϭ
ΛϼΛέΎΛϞϴϠΤΗ Δ
ΔϛήΘθϤϟΔϴΣϼϔϟΔγΎϴδϠϟΔϴδϴέήλΎϨϋ ΕΎϋϮϓΪϤϟ
ˬϞΧΪϠϟΓήηΎΒϤϟ
ΕέΩΎμϟϢϋΩ ΔϴϛήϤΠϟϡϮγήϟϭ
ΕΩέϮϟϰϠϋ
ϥΖϨϴΑ
ΔϋΎϨμϟΕΎϋΎτϗϲϓΝΎΘϧϹνΎϔΨϧ
ϲϓΕΎϣΪΨϟϭ
ΩΎΤΗϻ ϲΑϭέϭϷ
ΞΗΎϨϟνΎϔΨϧϭ
ϲϟϮΣΏϲΑϭέϭϷΩΎΤΗϻϲϓϲϟΎϤΟϹϲϠΤϤϟ
ήϛάϟΔϘΑΎδϟΔγΎϴδϟ˯ήΟϦϣ
ιϮμΨΑΎϣ
ήϴΛ΄Θϟ
ϲΑΎΠϳϹ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΕΎϧΎϋϺϟ
ΕΰϛέΪϘϓ
ΔγέΩ Castro and Teixeira (2004) ΗϰϠϋ
ΔϴϠϴπϔΗΓΪΎϓΕϻΪόϣϦϋΓέΎΒϋ ϲΣϼϔϟϥΎϤΘϻϢϋΩήΛήϳΪϘ
ϞΜϤΗϭ
ϞϳίήΒϠϟϲϟΎϤΟϹϲϠΤϤϟΞΗΎϨϟϮϤϧϰϠϋ ϞϳίήΒϠϟϲϋέΰϟϢϋΪϟϦϣ
ΞΎΘϧΖϨϴΑϭ
ϥΔγέΪϟ
ΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋΩϮόΗϲΘϟΪϮϔϟ
ϲϠϳίήΒϟ
ϣϮϜΤϟΔϔϠϜΗϦϣήΒϛ
ϴ
Δ ϣϲϓ
ϢϋΪϟϝΎΠ
βϔϧϭ ΔΠϴΘϨϟ
ΎϬϴϟ·ΖϠλϮΗ ΔγέΩ
Cardoso and al (2011)
ϝϮΣ
ϲϓϖρΎϨϣβϤΧϲϓΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϥΎϤΘϼϟΕΎϧΎϋϹήϴΛ΄Η ˬϞϳίήΒϟ
ΖϨϴΑΚϴΣ
ΚϴΣϦϣΔγΎϴδϟϩάϫΔϴϟΎόϓ
ˬΔϔϠϜΘϟ
ΎϤϴϓΎϬΘϴΤΑέϭ
ΪϴϟϮΘΑϖϠόΘϳ
ϞϳίήΒϠϟϲϟΎϤΟϹϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ
ήϣϷβϔϧϭ
ϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑ ΔγέΪ .ĜtVWNRYi and Habrychova (2011) ΖϨϴΑϲΘϟϭ
ΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟΰϴϔΤΗϰϟ·ϱΩΆϳΔϧΎϋϹϦϣώϠΒϣϞϛϥ
ΔΣϼϔϠϟ ΕΫΕΎϋΎτϘϟϭ
ήΛϊϣˬΔϠμϟ
ϲΑΎΠϳ·
ϲϟΎϤΟϹϲϠΤϤϟΞΗΎϨϟϮϤϧϰϠϋ
ιϮμΨΑΎϣ
ΕΎϧΎϋϹήϴΛ΄Η
ΔϴΣϼϔϟ
ϰϠϋΎϫήϴΛ΄ΗϝϼΧϦϣΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋ Ϲ
ΔϴΟΎΘϧ
ϟΓήηΎΒϤϟ
ΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮό
ˬ
ΕήϬυΪϘϓ
έΩ Giannakas and al (2001)
ϥ
ΔϴϨϘΘϟΓ˯ΎϔϜϟ
ΔϴϣϮϜΤϟΕϼϳϮΤΘϟϊϣϲΒϠγϞϜθΑΔτΒΗήϣωέΰϤϠϟ
βϔϧϮϫϭ
ΖϠλϮΗΎϣ
Ϫϴϟ·
ΔγέΩ Guan and Lunsink (2006)
ϭ ΕΪϛϲΘϟ
ΔϴΣϼϔϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋϲΒϠγήΛΎϬϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϥ
ϲϓΪϨϟϮϫϲϓ
ϦϴΑΎϣΓήΘϔϟ
ΔγέΩήϴθΗϭ Hadley (2006)
ˬϢϋΪϟϦϋΞΗΎϨϟΑήϟζϣΎϫΓΩΎϳίϊϣΔϋέΰϟϲϓΓ˯ΎϔϜϟνΎϔΨϧϰϟ·
ΔϋϮϤΠϤϟϚϟΫϭ
ϝϭΪϟϦϣ
ϲϓ
ΓήΘϔϟ
ΔγέΩήϴθΗϭ
Latruffe and al (2011)
ϋέΰϤϟΔϴϨϘΘϟΔϴϟΎόϔϟϡΪόΑςΒΗήϣΕΎϧΎϋϹϦϣϰϠϋϢΠΣϥϰϟ·
Ϧϴ
ˬϙέΎϤϧΪϟ ϲΑϭέϭϷΩΎΤΗϻϦϣϝϭΩϊΒγϲϓ ϭ
ˬΎϴϧΎϤϟ
ϭ
ΪϨϟήϳ·
ˬ ϭ ΎϴϧΎΒγ·
ˬ ϭ
ˬΪϨϟϮϫ
ΔϜϠϤϤϟϭ
ΓΪΤΘϤϟ
ϲϓ
ΓήΘϔϟ
ϋέΰϤϠϟΔϴϨϘΘϟΔϴϟΎόϔϟϦϣξϔΨϳΔτΒΗήϣήϴϏΕΎϋϮϓΪϣϝΎΧΩ·ϲϓϞΜϤΘϤϟΔϛήΘθϤϟΔϴΣϼϔϟΔγΎϴδϠϟήϴΧϷϪΟϮΘϟϥΎϤϛ
Ϧϴ ϙέΎϤϧΪϟ˯ΎϨΜΘγΎΑϝϭΪϟϊϴϤΟϲϓ
Ύϣ
ΔγέΩ
Tan and Karimi (2013)
ϝϮΣ
ϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴγϦϴΑΔϗϼόϟ
ΔϴϠϜϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϭ
ΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮόϟ (PTF)
μϟϲϓ ˬϦϴ
ΖϨϴΑΪϘϓ
ϖϴΒτΗΪόΑξϔΨϨΗΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮόϟΔϴϠϜϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϥ
Trang 3
ήϴθΗΎϤϛ ΔγέΩ 0DUWÕQ-Retortillo and Pinilla (2014)
ϝϮΣ
κϠΨΘδΗˬΎΑϭέϭϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟΏΎΒγ
ϥϰϟ·
ϦϣΔϟΎϤόϠϟήϤΘδϤϟΝϭήΨϟ
ΓΩΎϳΰΑςΒΗήϣϲϋέΰϟωΎτϘϟ
ˬΩΎμΘϗϼϟϯήΧϷΕΎϋΎτϘϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋϡΪΨΘγ
ήΛΆϳΔϋέΰϠϟϱϮϘϟϢϋΪϟϥΈϓϚϟΫϰϟ·ΔϓΎοϹΎΑ
ΎΒϠγ
ϤδϳϮϬϓˬΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋ ϟ
ήΒϛΩΪό
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϲϓ˯ΎϘΒϟΎΑΔϠϣΎόϟΪϴϟϦϣ
ϭ
ϮϫϲϟΎΘϟΎΑ
ϟβϴϟ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϟΎμ
ϭ
βϜϋϰϠϋ ΕΎγέΪϟΔϴΒϟΎϏ ˬ
ϥΈϓ
ΔγέΩ McCloud and Kumbhakar (2008)
ϝϮΣ
ϲϓϢϋΪϟϦϴΑΔϗϼόϟ ϭΔϛήΘθϤϟΔϴΣϼϔϟΔγΎϴδϟέΎρ
ΔϴΟΎΘϧ·
ϦϴϋέΰϤϟ
ˬϙέΎϤϧΪϟϲϓ
ϭ
ϳϮδϟ
Ϊ
ϭ ΪϨϠϓ
ϲϓ
ΓήΘϔϟ
ΩϮΟϭΖϨϴΑΪϗ
ήΛ
ϲΑΎΠϳ·
ΔϴϨϘΘϟΓ˯ΎϔϜϟϰϠϋΕΎϧΎϋϺϟ
ϭ
ϲΘϟΔΠϴΘϨϟβϔϧϲϫ ΎϬϴϟ·ΖϠλϮΗ
Yee and al (2004)
ΩϮΟϭϝϮΣ
Δϗϼϋ ΔϴΑΎΠϳ·
ϜϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϦϴΑ
ϞϣϮόϟΔϴϠ
ϭΔϋέΰϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹ ϣήΑϰϠϋΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕΎϘϔϨϟ
ϭΩΎηέϹϭΚΤΒϟΞ ΔϴΘΤΘϟΔϴϨΒϟ
ϭ
ΔγέΪϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑϚϟάϛ
Lien and Kumbhakar
ήϴΛ΄ΗϝϮΣ
ΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋϢϋΪϟ
Γ˯ΎϔϜϟϭ
ΕΎϧΎϴΑΔϋϮϤΠϤϟ
ΓήΘϔϠϟΞϳϭήϨϟϲϓϦϴϋέΰϤϟ
ΎϣΪϨϋ
ΔϴΟΎΘϧϹΝΫΎϤϧϲϓϲϠΧΩήϴϐΘϤϛΞϟΎόΗ ϭΓ˯ΎϔϜϟϭ
ΕήϬυϲΘϟ
ˬΔϴϋέΰϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋΎΒϠγήΛΆΗΕΎϧΎϋϹϥ
ΎϬϟϦϜϟϭ
ήϴΛ΄Η ϲΑΎΠϳ·
ϟϰϠϋ
ΔϴϨϘΘϟΓ˯ΎϔϜ
ΝΫϮϤϨϟ ΔγέΪϟΕΎϴτόϣϭ
ΔϨϴϋέΎϴΘΧ ΔγέΪϟ
ήΰΠϟ
ΪϤΘόΗϲΘϟϥΪϠΒϟϦϴΑϦϣ
ΔϴϤϨΘϟϞϳϮϤΗϰϠϋϢΎϗϱϮϤϨΗΝΫϮϤϧΪϤΘόΗϲϫϭϲϟϭήΘΒϟϊϳήϟϰϠϋ
Ϧϣ
ΕΪΎϋ ˬϝϭήΘΒϟ
ΎϣϮϫϭ
ϟέΎόγΕΎΒϠϘΘϟΔοήϋΎϬϠόΠϳ
ϔϨ
ς
ϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭ
ϳ
ΒΗή
ς
ϮϤϨϟ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
ΕΎϗϭήΤϤϟΕέΩΎμΑΓήϴΒϛΔΒδϨΑ ϪϧφΣϼϤϟϭ
ϦϴΑΎϣΓήΘϔϟϲϓ
ϰϟ·
ωΎϔΗέϞόϔΑϭ
ϝϭήΘΒϟέΎόγ
ˬ
ϲϟϮΣήΰΠϟΖμμΧ
έϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣ
ήηΎΒϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϒϠΘΨϤϟ
Γ
ΓήηΎΒϣήϴϐϟϭ
Δϴϧΰϴϣϲϫϭ
ΔϴΑήόϟϝϭΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟΕΎμμΨϣϝΩΎόΗΓήΒΘόϣ βϔϧϲϓϭ
ΓήΘϔϟ
ˬ
ΩϭΪΣϲϓϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΔϤϫΎδϣΔΒδϧΕήϘΘγ
%
ϦϴΑωΎϔΗέϞϴΠδΗϊϣ
ϭ
ήϘΘδΘϟ
ΩϭΪΣϲϓ
έήΒϳΎϤϣϭ
ΔϴΣϼϔϟΕΎγΎϴδϟϢϴϴϘΘΑΖϣΎϗˬήΰΠϟΔϟΎΣϰϠϋΕΰϛέϲΘϟΕΎγέΪϟΔϴΒϟΎϏϥϮϫήΰΠϟέΎϴΘΧΎπϳ
ϢϋΪϟΞϣήΑϭ
Λ΄ΗΚϴΣϦϣϲΣϼϔϟ
Ύϫήϴ
ϲΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋΕΎγΎϴδϟϩάϫήϴΛ΄ΗϚϟάΑΔϠϫΎΠΘϣˬϲΣϼϔϟΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋ ϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϭ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
άϫϰϠϋϭ
αΎγϷ
ˬ
ϦϴΟΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗϢΗ ˬ
ΰϛήϳΚϴΣ
ϰϠϋϝϭϷΝΫϮϤϨϟ
ΎϣˬήΰΠϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟήϴδϔΗ
ϰϠϋΰϛήϴϓϲϧΎΜϟΝΫϮϤϨϟ
ήϴδϔΗ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧ
Ηϭ
ΪϳΪΤΗϢ
ϮϤϧ
ΝΎΘϧϹ
ϲΣϼϔϟ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭ
ΔϳήψϨϟΕΎΑέΎϘϤϟϖϓϭ ΕΎγέΪϟϭ
ΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟ
ΔϘΑΎδϟ
ΓΎϋήϣϊϣ
ΔϟΎΣ ήΰΠϟ
ϭ
ΕήϬυ
ΔϳήψϨϟΕΎγέΪϟ
ϑϼΘΧΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟϭ
ϴΜϛϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΩήΛ
Ϧϣή
ϥΎϴΣϷ
ϰϠϋ
ϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟ ϭ
ϰϠϋ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ
ϱ
βϴϟϪϧ
Ϧϣ έϭήπϟ
ϱ
ήΛϷϥϮϜϳϥ
ϲΑΎΠϳϹ
ˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϪδϔϧϮϫϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϠϋ ϻϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭ
ΘϟΞΎΘϧρΎϘγ·ϦϜϤϳ
ΔϘϠόΘϤϟήϳΪϘ
ϭϦϣήΛϷϲϓϑϼΘΧϻάϫϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧΝΫϮϤϧϲϓϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήϴΛ΄ΘΑ ϧΔϬΟ
ψ
ΔϓήόϤϟϝϭϷΝΫϮϤϨϟ ϦϴΟΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗϰϟ·ΎϧΩΎϗˬΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟή
ήΛ
ϢϋΪϟ
ˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟ ϲϧΎΜϟΝΫϮϤϨϟϭ
ϴΒΘϟ ΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋήΛϷϥΎ
ϲ ϭ ϖϓϭ
ΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟΕΎγέΪϟΞΎΘϧ ˬ
ϥΈϓ
ΪϗΔϴΒΒδϟ
ϥϮϜΗ
ϲϓ ˬϦϴϫΎΠΗϻ
ϱ
ϥΔϴϧΎϜϣ·
ΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟΔΣϼϔϟΐΒδΗ
ϱ
ΔϴϣΎϨϟϥΪϠΒϟϲϓΎϤϴγϻΔόϨϘϣϭΪΒΗ
ϚϟΫϊϣϭ
ΗΪϗΔϴΒΒδϟϥϰϟ·ήϴθΗΞΠΤϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟϥϙέΪϧϥϱέϭήπϟϦϣ
ϥϮϜ ϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϟ·ϲΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻϦϣϰϨόϤΑˬβϛΎόϤϟϩΎΠΗϻϲϓ
ϦϴΟΫϮϤϨϟήϳΪϘΘϟϭ
ϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓ ˬ
ϤϧϡΪΨΘδϧ ΔϋίϮϤϟΔϴϨϣΰϟΕϮΠϔϠϟϲΗάϟέΪΤϧϻΝΫϮ Auto Regressive Distributive Lags (ARDL)
ϞΒϗϦϣέϮτϤϟ
Pesaran and al (2001)
άϫ
ϼδϟϥϮϜΗϥΐϠτΘϳϻϪϧ΄ΑΕέΎΒΘΧϻϲϗΎΑϦϋέΎΒΘΧϻάϫίΎΘϤϳΚϴΤΑˬΔϓϭήόϤϟϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΕέΎΒΘΧϻϞϳΪΒϛήΒΘόϳΝΫϮϤϨϟ ΔΟέΪϟβϔϧϦϣΔϠϣΎϜΘϣΎόϴϤΟΔϴϨϣΰϟϞγ
I (0)
ϭ
I (1)
ρήθϟΎϓ
ϮϫέΎΒΘΧϻάϫϖϴΒτΘϟΪϴΣϮϟ ϻ
ΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϣΎϳϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩϥϮϜΗ
I (2)
άϫϲϓϭ
ϝΎΠϤϟ
ΖϣΎϗˬ
ΓΪϳΪϋΕΎγέΩ ϲϓήψϨϟΎΑ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΔϴΣϼϔϟΔγΎϴδϟήΛ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭ
ϖϳήτΑ ARDL
ˬ ΔγέΩΎϬϨϣ UDOH, Elijah (2011)
ΗϲΘϟϭ
ϛΆ
Ϊ
ήΛϷϰϠϋ ϲΑΎΠϳϹ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕΎϘϔϨϠϟ
ΔγέΩϭ Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye et al (2010)
έΎόγϷΔγΎϴγϥήΒΘόΗ ΕΎϘϔϨϟΔγΎϴγϭ
ϳέϭήοΎόϣΎϤϫΔϴϣϮϤόϟ
Θ
ϮϤϨϟϥΎ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟ
ΔγέΩϚϟάϛϭ
KADIR, Shariff Umar Sh Abd and TUNGGAL, Noor Zainab (2015)
ΕήΒΘϋϲΘϟ
ΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋΪΟϒϴόοήϴΛ΄ΗϪϟϲϣϮϜΤϟϕΎϔϧϹϥ
Δϴϋέΰϟ
ΔγέΪϟΕήϴϐΘϣ ϣϞϤθΗ
ϮϤϧΕϻΪό ϛ ϦϣΐδϨ
ΕΩέϮϟϲϟΎϤΟ·ϦϣΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϟΔΒδϧϰϟ·ΔϓΎο·ˬϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟ
ϢϋΪϟήϴϐΘϣϭ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϠϜϟ
ϢΗϱάϟϭ
ΔϤϴϘΑϪϨϋήϴΒόΘϟ
ΕΎϘϔϨϟ
ΔΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΔϬΟϮϤϟΔϴϣϮϜΤϟ ϱήϟϭ
ΏΎδΣϢΗϭ
ϫ
ήϴΧϷά ϯήΧϷΕήϴϐΘϤϟϊϣΎδϧΎΠΘϣϪϠόΠϟϢΘϳέΎϏϮϠϟΎΑ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϢϋΩΔγΎϴγϲϓήϴϐΘϟϦϋήϴΒόΘϠϟϲϤϫϭήϴϐΘϣϰϠϋΝΫϮϤϨϟϯϮΘΣΎϤϛ
ϦϣϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ
ϯήΧϰϟ·ΓήΘϓ ΪϳΪΤΗϢΗϭ
ΔϳϮϨγΔϴϨϣίϞγϼγ ΔΘΑΎΜϟέΎόγϷΎΑ
ϦϴΑΎϣΓήΘϔϟϲϓ
ϭ
ϝϭΪΠϟ
1
ΔγέΪϟΕήϴϐΘϣ
ΔϠδϠδϟΰϣέ
ΔϠδϠδϟϢγ
ΔϠδϠδϟέΪμϣ
PIB ϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϮϤϧϝΪόϣ
ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ
PIBA ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟϮϤϧϝΪόϣ
ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ
PIBI ϲϋΎϨμϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟϮϤϧϝΪόϣ
ΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟ
INDU
ϣΔΒδϧ ϲϋΎϨμϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟ
ϮΌ ϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔϳ
ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ
AGRI
ΔΒδϧ ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟ
ΔϳϮΌϣ
ϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣ
ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ
IMPO
ΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϟ
%
ΕΩέϮϟϲϟΎϤΟ·Ϧϣ
ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ
ST
ΔΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲΎϬϨϟϊΑΎτϟΕΫΕΎϘϔϨϟ
ϱήϟϭ
ΰϴϬΠΘϟΕΎϘϔϧ
ΔϨγϞϜϟΔϴϟΎϤϟϦϴϧϮϗ
ϯϮΘΣΪϗϭ ΟΫϮϤϨϟ Ύ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϢϋΩϦϋήϴΒόΘϠϟϲϤϫϭήϴϐΘϣϰϠϋϚϟάϛϥ ϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ
SP ϢϴϘϟάΧ΄ϳ
0
ϭ
ΝΎΘϧϹϢϋΩήϴϐΘϣάΧ΄ϳ
ΔϤϴϘϟϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ
0
ΝΎΘϧϺϟϢϋΩΎϬϴϓΪΟϮϳϻϲΘϟΓήΘϔϟϲϓ
ΔϤϴϘϟϭϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϺϟϳήμϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΩΓήΘϓϲϓ ϦϴΣϼϔϟϭ
ϢΗΪϗϭ
ΝέΩ·
ήϴϐΘϤϟ
ϟ
ΔϴϤϛΕΎϧΎϴΑϰϟ·ϝϮλϮϟϦϣΎϨϨϜϤΗϡΪόϟήψϧϲϤϫϮ
ΔϘϴϗΩ ϜΗΔϠϳϮρΔϴϨϣίΔϠδϠδϟ
Ϯ
ΎϴΎμΣ·ΔϟϮΒϘϣϥ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΩήΛ
ϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟΔτγϮΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟήδϔϳΝΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗϝϼΧϦϣϢΘϴγϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήΛΪϳΪΤΗ
ˬϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟ ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϠϘΘδϤ
ϭ
ˬϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϟ
ϭ
ˬϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔΣϼϔϟΔμΣ ϭ
ˬϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔϋΎϨμϟΔμΣ ϭ
ΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϟ
ϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟϭ
ΔΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΰϴϬΠΘϟΕΎϘϔϨΑϪϨϋήϴΒόΘϟϢΗήϴΧϷάϫϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟ
ϭ
ϱήϟ
ϢΗϭ
Trang 4
ΝΫϮϤϧ ARDL
ΔϟΩΎόϤϠϟ (1)
ϲϟΎΘϟϞϜθϟϰϠϋ
ǻࡼࡵ࢚ൌ ܽ Ⱦ୨ο ୲ି୨
భ
ୀଵ
+ ɀ୨ο ୲ି୨
మ
ୀ
+ Ɂ୨ο ୲ି୨
య
ୀ
+ ɉ୨οܵܶ୲ି୨
ర
ୀ
+ Ʌ୨ο୲ି୨
ఱ
ୀ
+ Ԃ୨ο ୲ି୨
ల
ୀ
+
Ɋ୨ ୲ି୨
ళ
ୀ + Ʉ୨ο ୲ି୨
ఴ
ୀ + ߨଵܲܫܤ௧ିଵ + ߨଶܲܫܤܣ௧ିଵ + ߨଷܲܫܤܫ௧ିଵ + ߨସܵܶ௧ିଵ + ߨହܵܲ௧ିଵ + ߨܫܰܦܷ௧ିଵ + ߨܣܩܴܫ௧ିଵ
+ ߨ଼ܫܯܱܲ௧ିଵ + ߝ௧
««««««««««««««(
)
ΚϴΣ ΝΫϮϤϨϟϦϴΒϳ
ϦϜϤϳϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϥ
ϩήϴδϔΗ
ˬΔΌρΎΒΘϤϟϪϤϴϗϖϳήρ ΔΌρΎΒΘϤϟϢϴϘϟϭ
ΕήϴϐΘϤϠϟ ˬΔϠϘΘδϤϟ
ϰϟϭϷΓϮτΨϟϭ
ΔϴΠϬϨϤϟ ARDL
ΚϴΤΑˬϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭέΎΒΘΧϲϫ
ϝΎϘϓϭϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΰϜΗήϳ Pesaran and al (2001)
ϲϓ
ΝΫΎϤϧ ARDL
ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϴοήϔϟέΎΒΘΧϰϠϋ
൜ܪܪ ߨଵൌ ߨଶൌ ߨଷൌ ߨସൌ ߨହൌ ߨൌ ߨൌ ߨ଼ൌ ͲǤ
ଵ ߨଵ് Ͳǡ ߨଶ് Ͳǡ ߨଷ് Ͳǡ ߨସ് Ͳǡ ߨହ് Ͳǡ ߨ് Ͳǡ ߨ് Ͳǡ ߨ଼് ͲǤ
ΔϴΎμΣ·ϞϤθΗϭ
έΎΒΘΧϻ
F-statistics
Wald test
ˬ ϭ ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϴΠϬϨϤϟϖϓϭέήϘϟΫΎΨΗϢΘϳ
ΔϤϴϗΖϧΎϛΫ·
F-stat
ϡΪόΑϡΪόϟΔϴοήϓξϓήϧΎϨϧΈϓˬΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϠϟϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟϦϣήΒϛ
ΖϧΎϛΫ·ΎϣϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭ F-stat
ΔϴΎμΣϹΔΑϮδΤϤϟΔϤϴϘϟΖϧΎϛΫ·ΎϣϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϡΪόΑϡΪόϟΔϴοήϓϞΒϘϧΎϨϧΈϓˬΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϠϟϰϧΩϷΪΤϟϦϣϞϗ
F
ΪΤϟϦϴΑΎϣϊϘΗ
ϰϠϋϷ ϰϧΩϷΪΤϟϭ
ϦϣΔΣήΘϘϤϟΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϠϟ
ϞΒϗ Pesaran and al (2001)
ϦϜϤϳϻάΪϨϋˬ έήϗϱΫΎΨΗ
ΓϮτΨϟϞϤθΗϭ
ήϴμϘϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΝΫϮϤϨϟΕΎϤϠόϣήϳΪϘΗΔϴϧΎΜϟ ϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϭ
ϚϟΫϥϮϜϳϭ
ΔγέΪϟΕήϴϐΘϣϦϴΑϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϦϣΪϛ΄ΘϟΪόΑ
ϭ
ΕήϴϐΘϤϠϟΔϴΎμΣϹκΎμΨϟΔγέΩϲϐΒϨϳΔϟΩΎόϤϟήϳΪϘΗϞΒϗ ϭ
ΔλΎΧ ΔϳέήϘΘγϻΔγέΩ
ΩϮΟϭΪϳΪΤΘϟ
ϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΔϗϼϋ ΘϟϱΩΎϔΗϭ
ΕήϳΪϘ
ΖϧΎϛϝΎΣϲϓΞΘϨΗΪϗϲΘϟΔϔΰϟ
Ϟγϼδϟ
ΓήϘΘδϣήϴϏήϳΪϘΘϟϲϓΔϣΪΨΘδϤϟ ϢΗϪϴϠϋϭ
έΎΒΘΧΔτγϮΑΝΫϮϤϨϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟΓΪΣϮϟέάΟέΎΒΘΧ
(Augmented Dickey Fuller Test)
ήϴΧ΄ΘϟΔΟέΪϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑ ˬ
ΔϤϴϗϞϗϰϠϋΩΎϤΘϋΕΩΪΣΪϘϓ
ϚϴϳΎϛϱέΎϴόϤϟ ίέϮηϭ
max p = 4
ϝϭΪΠϟϭ
ΝΫϮϤϨϠϟΔϠϜθϤϟΔϴϨϣΰϟϞγϼδϟϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩκΨϠϳ
ϝϭΪΠϟ
ΔϴϨϣΰϟϞγϼδϟϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩ
ΕήϴϐΘϤϟ IMPO
AGRI
INDU
ST
SP PIBI
PIBA
PIB
ϞϣΎϜΘϟΔΟέΩ
I (1)
I (1)
I (1)
I (1)
I (1)
I (1)
I (0)
I (1)
ΔϴΠϬϨϣϖϴΒτΗρήηϦϣΪϛ΄ΘϟΪόΑ ARDL
ϲϓϞΜϤΘϤϟϭ
έάΟέΎΒΘΧϝϼΧϦϣΔγέΪϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟΔϴϨϣΰϟϞγϼδϟϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩ ˬΓΪΣϮϟ
ϦϣΔϠϣΎϜΘϣϲϫΕήϴϐΘϤϟϊϴϤΟϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩΚϴΤΑ
ΔΟέΪϟ
I
(1) ˬ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧΔϠδϠγΪϋΎϣ PIBA
ϯϮΘδϤϟϲϓΓήϘΘδϣϲϫϲΘϟ
I (0)
ϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭήΒΘΨϧϑϮγ
ΩϭΪΤϟΞϬϨϣϝΎϤόΘγΎΑϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϗϼϋέΎΒΘΧ
ϲϫϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϴΎμΣ·ΔϤϴϗ F= 33.80485
ϢϴϘϟΩϭΪΣϭ
ϦϣΔΣήΘϘϤϟΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟ
ϞΒϗ Pesaran and al (2001)
ϲϟΎΘϟϝϭΪΠϟϲϓΔΤοϮϣϲϫ
ϝϭΪΠϟ
ΩϭΪΤϟΕέΎΒΘΧ
F-statistic = 33.80485
ΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϟ
ΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎϳϮΘδϣ
ϲϠϔδϟΪΤϟ
ϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟ
10%
1.92 2.89
5%
2.17 3.21
2.5%
2.43 3.51
1%
2.73 3.9
ϝϭΪΠϟοϮϳ
ϥ
F-stat
ΔϳϮϨόϣΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟΔϤϴϘϠϟϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟϦϣήΒϛϲϫ 1
%
ˬ 5
%
ˬ 10
%
ϡΪόϟΔϴοήϓξϓήϧϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭˬ
ϞΒϘϧϭ
ΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϮΑΔϠϳΪΒϟΔϴοήϔϟ
ϪϴϧίϮΗ
ϞΟϷΔϠϳϮρ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϧϝΪόϣϦϴΑϞΟϷΔϠϳϮρΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϦϣΪϛ΄ΘϟΪόΑ ϪΗΩΪΤϣϭ
ΔϴΠϬϨϤϟΎϘϓϭΔϗϼόϟϩάϫϢϟΎόϣήϳΪϘΘΑϡϮϘϧϑϮγˬ ARDL
έΎϴόϣϰϠϋΩΎϤΘϋ
(Schwarz Bayesian
Criterion)
ˬΆρΎΒΘϟΕήΘϓΪϳΪΤΗϢΗ ϥϦϴΒΗϭ
ΝΫϮϤϨϟ
4 ˬ
ˬ 3
ˬ 4
ˬ 4
ˬ 4
ˬ 4
ˬ 3
ήϴμϘϟϦϴϳΪϤϟϲϓήϳΪϘΘϟΞΎΘϧϞΜϣϷΝΫϮϤϨϟϮϫ ΔΤοϮϤϟϞϳϮτϟϭ
ϲϟΎΘϟϝϭΪΠϟϲϓ
ϝϭΪΠϟ
έΪΤϧϻΝΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗ ϲΗάϟ
ΕϮΠϔϠϟ ΔϴϨϣΰϟ
ΔϋίϮϤϟ
4 ˬ
ˬ 3
ˬ 4
ˬ 4
ˬ 4
ˬ 4
ˬ 3
Included observation: 41 after adjustments
P-v
t-Statistic
Std Error
Coefficient
Variable
Short run: Dependent Variable: DPIB
0.0002 12.650056
0.057848 0.731782
D(PIB(-1))
0.0000 23.599101
0.067422 1.591100
D(PIB(-2))
0.0000 22.812549
0.031615 0.721217
D(PIB(-3))
0.0002 -13.270116
0.018478 -0.245202
D(PIBA)
0.0000 25.279739
0.021324 0.539075
D(PIBA(-1))
0.0000 27.107559
0.015700 0.425587
D(PIBA(-2))
0.0000 26.747212
0.017742 0.474540
D(PIBI)
Trang 50.0076 4.978564
0.023387 0.116432
D(PIBI(-1))
0.0012 -8.275572
0.019479 -0.161202
D(PIBI(-2))
0.1762 -1.640677
0.253255 -0.415509
D(ST)
0.0028 6.571319
0.360030 2.365872
D(ST(-1))
0.1702 1.670389
0.376467 0.628846
D(ST(-2))
0.0019 7.298429
0.317306 2.315837
D(ST(-3))
0.0003 -11.765686
0.295503 -3.476800
D(SP)
0.0012 -8.273956
0.253823 -2.100121
D(SP(-1))
0.0002 12.545482
0.272395 3.417324
D(SP(-2))
0.0003 11.666953
0.254217 2.965939
D(SP(-3))
0.0001 16.596237
0.042940 0.712644
D(INDU)
0.0017 7.526954
0.044879 0.337803
D(INDU(-1))
0.0001 16.390403
0.045149 0.740018
D(INDU(-2))
0.0000 28.789591
0.047951 1.380480
D(INDU(-3))
0.0001 17.891273
0.183766 3.287815
D(AGRI)
0.0002 13.841614
0.200157 2.770496
D(AGRI(-1))
0.0001 15.114437
0.187322 2.831264
D(AGRI(-2))
0.0000 29.064649
0.227001 6.597704
D(AGRI(-3))
0.0002 12.739569
0.027093 0.345156
D(IMPO)
0.0192 3.795943
0.031130 0.118168
D(IMPO(-1))
0.0006 -9.632664
0.030323 -0.292087
D(IMPO(-2))
0.0000 -30.211439
0.040008 -1.208690
ECM (-1)
Long-run: Dependent Variable: PIB
0.0299 -3.302366
0.263170 -0.869084
PIBA
0.4304 0.876181
0.233178 0.204306
PIBI
0.0286 3.349017
0.323232 1.082510
ST
0.0184 -3.844915
0.768758 -2.955807
SP
0.0328 3.201939
0.216054 0.691793
INDUPIB
0.0648 2.528201
0.554629 1.402213
AGRIPIB
0.0195 -3.775659
0.137176 -0.517931
IMPO
0.0436 -2.911877
13.557374 -39.477410
C
R2 = 0.9967; adjusted R2 = 0.9677; SE = 0.488485; SSR = 0.954469
F-Stat = 34.29353; prob
(F-Stat)= 0.001719; DW=2.816675
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϝΪόϣϦϴΑϞΟϷΓήϴμϗΔϴϜϴϣΎϨϳΩΔϗϼϋϙΎϨϫϥ΄Α΄τΨϟϴΤμΗήϳΪϘΗΞΎΘϧϦϣϦϴΒΘϳ ΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϴΑϭ
ΓήδϔϤϟ
ϊΟέάϫϭ
ΓέΎηϹΐϟΎγέΪϘϤϟ΄τΨϠϟ μΣ·ϱϮϨόϤϟϭ
ΎϴΎ
ϞϣΎόϣΎϤϨϴΑ
ϱϭΎδϤϟ΄τΨϟϴΤμΗ -1.20
ΔϋήγβϴϘΗϭ
ϯΪϤϟϲϓϥίϮΘϟϊοϭϰϟ·ΓΩϮόϟ
ΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϢϋΪΗέΪϘϤϟ΄τΨϠϟΔΒϟΎδϟΓέΎηϹˬΎπϳϞϳϮτϟ ϪϴϧίϮΗ
ΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϴΑϯΪϤϟΔϠϳϮρ
ΒδϨϟΎΑ
ΔϳϮϨόϤϟΔ
Σ·ΔϳϮϨόϣΎϬϟΖΑΎΜϟΎϬϴϓΎϤΑϯήΧϷΕήϴϐΘϤϟϊϴϤΟˬΎϴΎμΣ·ϱϮϨόϤϟήϴϏϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϟϞϣΎόϣΪϋΎϣˬϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΕΎϤϠόϤϟ
ΔΟέΩΪϨϋΎϴΎμ 5
%
μΣ
ΎϬϟϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔΣϼϔϟΔ
ΪϨϋΔϴΎμΣ·ΔϳϮϨόϣ 7
%
ΔϳήϴδϔΗΓέΪϗΎϬϟΝΫϮϤϨϟϲϓΔϣΪΨΘδϤϟΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟϥΎϤϛ
έΪϗΡήθΗϭ
ϊΑΎΘϟήϴϐΘϤϟϦϣήϴΒϛ R2 = 0.97
ΝΫϮϤϨϟέήϘΘγέΎΒΘΧ
έΎΒΘΧ
έήϘΘγϻ
ϲϠϜϴϬϟ
ΕϼϣΎόϤϟ ϦϴϠΟϷ
ήϴμϘϟ
ϞΒϗϦϣΎϤϬΣήΘϗϢΗϦϳέΎΒΘΧϝϼΧϦϣϢΘΗϑϮγϞϳϮτϟϭ Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975)
ϭ
ΎϤϫ
έΎΒΘΧ
ωϮϤΠϤϟ
ϲϤϛήΘϟ ΓΩϭΎόϤϟϲϗϮΒϠϟ CUSUM
ωϮϤΠϤϟέΎΒΘΧϭ ϲϤϛήΘϟ
ΕΎόΑήϤϟ ϲϗϮΒϟ
ΓΩϭΎόϤϟ
CUSUM of Squares
Trang 6
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
ϞϜθϟ
1
ωϮϤΠϤϟϦϣϞϛέΎΒΘΧϻϲϧΎϴΒϟϞϜθϟ
ϲϤϛήΘϟ
ωϮϤΠϤϟέΎΒΘΧϭΓΩϭΎόϤϟϲϗϮΒϠϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ
ΕΎόΑήϤϟ ϲϗϮΒϟ
ΓΩϭΎόϤϟ
ϦϣπΘϳ ϞϜθϟ 1 ΕϼϣΎόϤϟ
ΓέΪϘϤϟ
ϝϼΧΎϴϠϜϴϫΓήϘΘδϣϲϫΝΫϮϤϨϠϟ ϦϳέΎΒΘΧϼϟϲϧΎϴΒϟϢγήϟωϮϗϮϟήψϧˬΔγέΪϟΓήΘϓ
CUSUM ϭ
CUSUM of Squares
ΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟΩϭΪΤϟϞΧΩ
ΔϳϮϨόϣϯϮΘδϣ 5
%
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήΛ
ΝΫϮϤϨϟ
ΔγέΪϟϦϣϲϧΎΜϟ
ϝϭΎΤϳ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧήϴδϔΗ
φΣϼϳΚϴΣ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϰϠϋϢϋΪϟήϴΛ΄ΗϦϴΑϥΎϴΣϷϦϣήϴΜϛϲϓήΛϷϑϼΘΧ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭ
δΣ
ΐ
ϟ
ΪϳΪό
Ϧϣ
ΔϴϧΎϜϣ·ϰϟ·ΔϓΎο·ˬΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟ
ϥϮϜΗϥ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϦϣϱβϛΎόϤϟϩΎΠΗϻϲϓΔϴΒΒδϟ
ήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻϭ
ϮϤϨϟϰϟ·ϲΣϼϔϟ
ˬϲΣϼϔϟ
ΎϣϮϫϭ
ϫήϳΪϘΗϰϟ·ΎϧΩΎϗ ΝΫϮϤϨϟά
ΚϴΣ
ϟ
ϮϫϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨ
ΝΫϮϤϨϟάϫϲϓϊΑΎΘϟήϴϐΘϤϟ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭ
ϯήΧϷΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟϊϣϞϘΘδϣήϴϐΘϣ
ΎϧήηΪϗϭ
ϦϣήΒϛΔΟέΩϲϓΔϠϣΎϜΘϣΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϣΎϳΪΟϮϳϻϪϧΎϘΑΎγ
I (1)
ˬ ϦϜϤϳϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭ
ΝΫϮϤϨϟήϳΪϘΗ
ΔϘϳήρΔτγϮΑ ARDL
ΝΫϮϤϧΐΘϜϳϭ
ARDL
ϟΎΑιΎΨϟ
ΝΫϮϤϨ
ϲϠϳΎϤϛ
ǻࡼࡵ࢚ൌ ܽ Ⱦ୨ο ୲ି୨
భ
ୀଵ + ɀ୨ο ୲ି୨
మ
ୀ + Ɂ୨οܲܫܤܫ୲ି୨
య
ୀ + ɉ୨ο୲ି୨
ర
ୀ + Ʌ୨ο୲ି୨
ఱ
ୀ + Ԃ୨ ୲ି୨
ల
ୀ +
Ɋ୨ο ୲ି୨
ళ
ୀ
+ ߨଵܲܫܤܣ௧ିଵ + ߨଶܲܫܤ௧ିଵ + ߨଷܲܫܤܫ௧ିଵ + ߨସܵܶ௧ିଵ + ߨହܵܲ௧ିଵ + ߨܣܩܴܫ௧ିଵ + ߨܫܯܱܲ௧ିଵ + ߝ௧
««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««(
)
ΩϭΪΤϟΞϬϨϣϝΎϤόΘγΎΑϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϗϼϋέΎΒΘΧ
ΪϳΪΤΗϢΘϳ
ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϴοήϔϟέΎΒΘΧϝϼΧϦϣϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭ
ሼሁሺܪ̴ሺͲሻ ߨ̴ͳ ൌ ߨ̴ʹ ൌ ߨ̴͵ ൌ ߨ̴Ͷ ൌ ߨ̴ͷ ൌ ߨ̴ ൌ ߨ̴ ൌ ͲǤ ̷ܪ̴ͳ ߨ̴ͳ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴ʹ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴͵ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴Ͷ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴ͷ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴
് ͲǤ ሻᇺ
ϲϫϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϴΎμΣ·ΔϤϴϗ F= 10.50472
ΩϭΪΣϭ
ϦϣΔΣήΘϘϤϟΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϟ
ϞΒϗ Pesaran and al (2001)
ϲϟΎΘϟϝϭΪΠϟϲϓΔΤοϮϣ
ϝϭΪΠϟ
ΩϭΪΤϟΕέΎΒΘΧ
F-statistic = 10.50472
ΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϟ
ΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎϳϮΘδϣ
ϲϠϔδϟΪΤϟ
ϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟ
10%
1.99 2.94
5%
2.27 3.28
2.5%
2.55 3.61
1%
2.88 3.99
ϝϭΪΠϟοϮϳ
ϥ
F-stat
ΔϳϮϨόϣΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟΔϤϴϘϠϟϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟϦϣήΒϛϲϫ 1
% ˬ
5
% ˬ
10
%
ˬ ξϓήϧϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭ
ϡΪόϟΔϴοήϓ ΔϴοήϔϟϞΒϘϧϭ
ΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϮΑΔϠϳΪΒϟ
ϪϴϧίϮΗ
ϳϮρ
ΔϠ
ϞΟϷ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϦϴΑϞΟϷΔϠϳϮρΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϦϣΪϛ΄ΘϟΪόΑ ϪΗΩΪΤϣϭ
ΔϴΠϬϨϤϟΎϘϓϭΔϗϼόϟϩάϫϢϟΎόϣήϳΪϘΘΑϡϮϘϧϑϮγˬ ARDL
έΎϴόϣϰϠϋΩΎϤΘϋ
(Schwarz Bayesian Criterion)
ˬΆρΎΒΘϟΕήΘϓΪϳΪΤΗϢΗ ϥϦϴΒΗϭ
ΝΫϮϤϨϟ
4 ˬ
ˬ 0
ˬ 4
ˬ 1
ˬ 2
ˬ 4
ήϴμϘϟϦϴϳΪϤϟϲϓήϳΪϘΘϟΞΎΘϧϞΜϣϷΝΫϮϤϨϟϮϫ ϲϫϞϳϮτϟϭ
ϲϟΎΘϟϝϭΪΠϟϲϓΔΤοϮϣ
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Trang 7ϝϭΪΠϟ
έΪΤϧϻΝΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗ ϲΗάϟ
ΕϮΠϔϠϟ ΔϴϨϣΰϟ
ΔϋίϮϤϟ
4
ˬ 2
ˬ 0
ˬ 4
ˬ 1
ˬ 2
ˬ 4
Included observation: 41 after adjustments
P-v
t-Statistic
Std Error
Coefficient
Variable
Short run: Dependent Variable: DPIBA
0.0001 4.951594
0.111450 0.551857
D(PIBA(-1))
0.0129 2.775871
0.077912 0.216273
D(PIBA(-2))
0.0140 -2.740195
0.051285 -0.140532
D(PIBA(-3))
0.1523 -1.498818
0.260985 -0.391169
D(PIB)
0.0000 -6.162957
0.184906 -1.139565
D(PIB(-1))
0.0326 2.326409
0.147435 0.342993
D(PIBI)
0.0824 1.845743
2.154646 3.976921
D(ST)
0.0459 2.153998
2.786817 6.002797
D(ST(-1))
0.0419 2.200423
3.054989 6.722267
D(ST(-2))
0.0000 5.587909
2.683903 14.997407
D(ST(-3))
0.0022 -3.597815
1.903110 -6.847039
D(SP)
0.0000 14.325689
0.474937 6.803805
D(AGRI)
0.0000 -11.019686
0.457489 -5.041384
D(AGRI(-1))
0.4386 0.793272
0.169843 0.134732
D(IMPO)
0.0220 2.521208
0.196864 0.496335
D(IMPO(-1))
0.0000 5.443391
0.199473 1.085808
D(IMPO(-2))
0.0124 2.796899
0.203683 0.569681
D(IMPO(-3))
0.0000 -10.622595
0.152261 -1.617409
ECM(-1)
Long-run: Dependent Variable: PIBA
0.0064 3.107003
0.450206 1.398793
PIB
0.4025 0.858663
0.183100 0.157221
PIBI
0.0051 3.211515
0.382097 1.227110
ST
0.6868 0.410218
1.338865 0.549227
SP
0.0003 4.514471
0.805496 3.636387
AGRIPIB
0.0030 -3.463363
0.191315 -0.662594
IMPO
0.0079 -3.006387
11.673313 -35.094494
C
R2 = 0.9546; adjusted R2 = 0.8933; SE = 3.435213; SSR = 200.6117 F-Stat = 15.56756; prob(F-Stat)= 0.0000; DW=2.580117
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϝΪόϣϦϴΑϞΟϷΓήϴμϗΔϴϜϴϣΎϨϳΩΔϗϼϋϙΎϨϫϥ΄Α΄τΨϟϴΤμΗήϳΪϘΗΞΎΘϧϦϣϦϴΒΘϳ ΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϴΑϭ
ΓήδϔϤϟ
ϊΟέάϫϭ
ΓέΎηϹΐϟΎγέΪϘϤϟ΄τΨϠϟ
·ϱϮϨόϤϟϭ
ΎϴΎμΣ
ϦϜϤϳϱάϟ
δϤϟ΄τΨϟϴΤμΗϞϣΎόϣΎϤϨϴΑϯήΧϷΔϴϨϣίΓήΘϓϦϣΎϬΤϴΤμΗϦϜϤϳϲΘϟϊΑΎΘϟήϴϐΘϤϟϲϓϥίϮΘϟϝϼΘΧΔΒδϧβϴϘϳϪϧϰϠϋϩήϴδϔΗ ϱϭΎ
ϱ
ϦϜϤϳϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϝΪόϣϦϣ
ΩϮΟϭϢϋΪΗέΪϘϤϟ΄τΨϠϟΔΒϟΎδϟΓέΎηϹˬΎπϳϯήΧϷΓήΘϓϦϣΎϬΤϴΤμΗ
Δϗϼϋ ϪϴϧίϮΗ
ΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϴΑϯΪϤϟΔϠϳϮρ
ΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟΐϠϏϷϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΔϴΎμΣϹΔϳϮϨόϤϟϚϟάϛϩϼϋϝϭΪΠϟοϮϳ ΖΑΎΜϟϭ
ϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϟΪϋΎϣ ϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϢϋΩϭ
ΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋ
ˬ
ˬ
ϥΎϤϛ
ϨϟϲϓΔϣΪΨΘδϤϟΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟ
ΔϳήϴδϔΗΓέΪϗΎϬϟΝΫϮϤ
έΪϗΡήθΗϭ
ϊΑΎΘϟήϴϐΘϤϟϦϣήϴΒϛ R2 = 0.89
ΝΫϮϤϨϟέήϘΘγέΎΒΘΧ
ϞϜθϟϦϣπΘϳ 2
ϥ
ΎϴϠϜϴϫέήϘΘγϙΎϨϫ ϲϓΎϣΎΠδϧϭ
ϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΞΎΘϨϟϦϴΑΝΫϮϤϨϟ
ήϴμϘϟϯΪϤϟϭ έΎΒΘΧϻϲϧΎϴΒϟϢγήϟωϮϗϮϟήψϧˬ
ωϮϤΠϤϟ
ϲϤϛήΘϟ
ΓΩϭΎόϤϟϲϗϮΒϠϟ
CUSUM
ωϮϤΠϤϟέΎΒΘΧϭ ϲϤϛήΘϟ
ΕΎόΑήϤϟ ϲϗϮΒϟ
ϟ
ΎόϤ ΓΩϭ CUSUM of Squares ΔϳϮϨόϣϯϮΘδϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟΩϭΪΤϟϞΧΩ
5
%
Trang 8
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
ϞϜθϟ
2
ωϮϤΠϤϟϦϣϞϛέΎΒΘΧϻϲϧΎϴΒϟϞϜθϟ
ϲϤϛήΘϟ
ϭΓΩϭΎόϤϟϲϗϮΒϠϟ ωϮϤΠϤϟέΎΒΘΧ
ϲϤϛήΘϟ
ΕΎόΑήϤϟ ϲϗϮΒϟ
ΓΩϭΎόϤϟ
ΞΎΘϧ
ΔγέΪϟ
ϝϭϷϦϴΟΫϮϤϨϟήϳΪϘΗϝϼΧϦϣϦϴΒΘϳ ϥϲϧΎΜϟϭ
ϢϋΪϟ
ϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϺϟϪΟϮϤϟ
ήΛΆϳ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΎΑΎΠϳ·
ϰϠϋΎΒϠγϭ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ
ΪϤϟϲϓάϫϭ
ϭϞϳϮτϟϯ
ϲϫ
ΕΎγέΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟϊϣϖϓϮΘΗΔΠϴΘϧ ˬΔϘΑΎδϟ
ϥΚϴΣ
ήϴΛ΄Θϟ ϲΑΎΠϳϹ
ΘγϻΓΩΎϳΰΑήδϔϳϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϰϠϋϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϢϋΪϟ
ˬϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟϦϋΞΗΎϨϟέΎϤΜ ΓΩΎϳίϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭ
Ϥϟ
ϭΕϼΧΪ
ήϣϷάϫ
ΎΑΎΠϳ·ήΛΆϳ
ΝΎΘϧϹϰϠϋ
ϲΣϼϔϟ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭΝΎΘϧϹϢϋΪϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄ΘϟΎϣ
ϓ ϳΪϘ ϧΈΑςΒΗή
ΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘ
ΔϣΪΨΘδϤϟ
ϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϲϓΔΣϼϔϟΔϤϫΎδϤϓˬΔΣϼϔϟϲϓ
ΎγΎγήϤΗΔϴϣΎϨϟϥΪϠΒϟ
ϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϦδΤΗϥήΒΘόϳϦϣϙΎϨϫϞΑˬΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϲϓϦδΤΘϟΎΑ ΪΒϟϱέϭήοήϣΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹ
˯
ΔϴϠϤϋέήϤΘγϭ
ϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ
ϩάϫ ϥΪϠΒϟ
ϥΎπϳφΣϼϳΎϤϛ
ΔϴΟΎΘϧϹ
ϟΪΟΔγΎδΣΔϴΣϼϔϟ Ϡ
ϟϢϋΪ ϲϣϮϜΤ
ˬ
ϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭ
ϦϜϤϳ
ςΑέ ήΛϷ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΪϟϲΒϠδϟ
Α ϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄ΘϟΎ
ήϴΧϷάϬ
ΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋ ΚϴΤΑ
ϤδΗΪϗ
ϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴγ
ϟάϫϲϓ˯ΎϘΒϟΎΑΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋϦϣϰϠϋϢΠΤϟ
ϢϋΪϟΏΎϴϏΔϟΎΣϊϣΔϧέΎϘϣωΎτϘ
ϮϫϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϥήΒΘόϳϦϣϙΎϨϫϚϟάϛ
ϧϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟΔϐϴλϲϓΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕέΎϤΜΘγϻϪϴΟϮΗϲϟΎΘϟΎΑˬΔπϔΨϨϤϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹωΎτϗ
ϮΤ
ϟΎλήϴϏϲϓϮϫΔϴΟΎΘϧϹξϔΨϨϣωΎτϗ
ϮϤϨϟ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
ΓήηΎΒϤϟΎϬΘϗϼϋϦϋήψϨϟξϐΑΔϣΎόϟϟΎμϤϟΕΫΕΎϘϔϨϟϞϜηϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϠϜϟϕΎϔϧϹϭϢϋΪϟϥΎϓϞΑΎϘϤϟϲϓ
ΝΎΘϧϹΎΑ ϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ
ˬΔϴΘΤΘϟΔϴϨΒϟΕΎϘϔϧ ϭ
ΚΤΒϟ
ϦϳϮϜΘϟϭ
Φϟ
ϰϠϋήϴΛ΄ΗήΜϛϥϮϜΗΪϗ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ ϰΘΣϞπϓϭ
ϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟΔϳΩήϔϟϟΎμϤϟϰϠϋήμΘϘϤϟϢϋΪϟϦϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϮϤϨϟ
ΎπϳϦϜϤϳϭ
ήϴδϔΗ
ϮϤϨϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄Θϟ
ΝΎΘϧϹ
ϲΣϼϔϟ
ϲΑΎΠϳϹϭ ϮϤϨϠϟ
ϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲϋΎϨμϟ
Ϧϣ ϠϛϲϓΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϑϼΘΧϝϼΧ ϲ
ϴϋΎτϘϟ
ˬϦ
Ύϓ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟ
ΔπϔΨϨϤϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹωΎτϗϮϫ ϊγϮΘϟϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭ
ˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϟΎλϲϓϥϮϜϳϻΪϗΔϴΟΎΘϧϹξϔΨϨϣωΎτϗϲϓ
Ύϣ
ϲϋΎϨμϟωΎτϘϟ
ΔόϔΗήϤϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹωΎτϗϮϫ ϙήΤϤϟϭ
ϲϠόϔϟ
ϟ
ϮϤϨϠ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
Ϊϗϭ
ϱΩΆΗ
ΩέϮϤϟΓήϓϭ
Δϋέΰϟϭ ϟ
ΔόγϮ
ϕΎτϨϟ
ϞόϔΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟΕϻΪόϣνΎϔΨϧϰϟ·
ϊϳήϟϦϋήϤΘδϤϟΚΤΒϟ
Gylfason, T (2000)
ˬήΰΠϟΔϟΎΤϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑ ϓ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϩΪϬηϱάϟϮϤϨϟΎ
%
ΎϳϮϨγ
ΎγΎγΞΗΎϧ ϋ
Ϧ
ϲϓΓΩΎϳίϪϠΑΎϘϳϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϯϮΘδϣϰϠϋϞλΎΤϟϮϤϨϟΎϓˬΓήϴΧϷΕϮϨδϟϲϓΔλΎΧΓήϴΒϜϟΔϴϣϮϜΤϟΕΎϘϔϨϟ
ϞϣϮόϟΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϰϠϋΎΒϠγβϜόϨϳΪϗϱάϟήϣϷˬΝΎΘϧϹΔϔϠϜΗ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭ
Ύόϣ
ΎπϳϦϜϤϳϭ
ϥΔψΣϼϣ ΕΩέϮϟ
ΩϮϤϟϦϣ ήΛΆΗΔϴάϐϟ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΎΒϠγ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭ
ˬ
ΎϣϮϫϭ
ϖϓϮΘϳ
ΔϳήψϨϟΕΎγέΪϟΪϳΪϋϊϣ ήΒΘόΗϲΘϟϭΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟϭ
ϰϠϋϢΠΣϥ
ˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΎΒϠγβϜόϨϳΕΩέϮϟϦϣ
ϥέΎΒΘϋϻϦϴόΑάΧϷϊϣ
ΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΕΩέϭ
ΎϬϟ Λ΄Η ϴ ΑΎΠϳ·ή ϋϲ ΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠ
Ϟόϔ ϹϲϓΎϬΘϤϫΎδϣ ΕΩέϭΎϣˬϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΝΎΘϧ
ϊϠδϟ
ΔϴάϐϟϊϠδϟΕΩέϭέήϏϰϠϋϙϼϬΘγϼϟΔϬΟϮϤϟ
ΎϬϟϥϮϜϳΎϣΎΒϟΎϐϓ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΒϠγήΛ
ΔλϼΨϟ
ϑΪϫϥΎϛ ΔγέΪϟ
ϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϟήΛΪϳΪΤΗ
ϦϴΑΎϣΓήΘϔϟϲϓήΰΠϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋ
ϭ
ˬ
ϞΎϬϟϲϣϮϜΤϟϕΎϔϧϹϢΠΤϟήψϧ ώϟΎΒϤϟϢΠΣϭ
ωΎτϘϟϢϋΪϟΔμμΨϤϟ
ϲΣϼϔϟ ΕίϭΎΠΗΪϗϭ
ΔϴϟΎϤϟΕΎμμΨϤϟ
ϟΔϬΟϮϤϟ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠ
έϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣ ϞϤθΗϲΘϟϭ
ΓήηΎΒϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹ
ΓήηΎΒϤϟήϴϐϟϭ
ϦϴΣϼϔϠϟ ΔγέΪϟΓήΘϓϝϼΧ
ΖϨϴΑΪϗϭ
ΩϮΟϭΔγέΪϟΞΎΘϧ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϺϟήηΎΒϤϟϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴδϟϲΒϠγήϴΛ΄Η ϭ
ϟ ϰϠϋϦϴΠΘϨϤϠ
ϦϴΣϲϓˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ
ϥ
ϼϋϦϋήψϨϟξϐΑϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟ
ΝΎΘϧϹΎΑϪΘϗ
ήΛΆϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΎΑΎΠϳ·
ϞΑΎϘϤϟϲϓϭ ˬ
ήΛϮϳ
ϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϢϋΩ ϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟϭ
ΑΎΠϳ·
ϴ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΎ
ΔΠϴΘϨϟϩάϫϭ
ϥήΒΘόϳϱάϟϱήψϨϟϞϴϠΤΘϟΎΑςΒΗήΗ
ϟΎμϤϟΕΫΕΎϘϔϨϟ
ΔϣΎόϟ
ϰϠϋήϴΛ΄ΗήΜϛ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ
ϭ
ϮϤϧϲϓϢϫΎδΗ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹ
ΞΎΘϧΕέΎηϭ
ϰϟ·ϚϟάϛήϳΪϘΘϟ
ΩϮΟϭ
ˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϨϟϲΒϠγήϴΛ΄Η ΎϣϮϫϭ
ήδϔϳΪϗ Α
ϊγϭϯΪϣϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟρΎθϨϟϲϓϊγϮΘϟΎ ϨϟϞϗήόϳΪϗ
ϮϤ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
ϲϓϭ
ΔϟΎΣ
ήΰΠϟ
ˬ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϩΪϬηϱάϟϮϤϨϟϥϰϟ·ΔΠϴΘϨϟϩάϫήϴθΗΪϗ
ϥΎϛ ϪϟΖϬΟϭϲΘϟΓήϴΒϜϟΔϴϣϮϜΤϟΕΎϘϔϨϠϟΔΠϴΘϧ
ΕϮϨδϟϲϓΔλΎΧ ήθόϟ
Γ ϯϮΘδϣϰϠϋϞλΎΤϟϮϤϨϟΎϓˬΓήϴΧϷ
ΝΎΘϧϹ
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12
Trang 9 ϞϣϮόϟΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϰϠϋΎΒϠγβϜόϧ
ϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϭ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
ΔγέΪϟήϴθΗϭ
Ύπϳ
ϰϟ·
ΩϮΟϭ
ήϴΛ΄Η ϟϲΒϠγ Ϡ ϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮ
ϲΣ
ΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭ
ϱΩ
Ύόϣ
ϲϟϮΣ
ϞΒϗΎϳϮϨγέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣ ΞϣήΑΪόΑϭ
ϢϋΪϟ
ˬ ΎϣϮϫϭ
ϟίήΒϳ
ήϴΛ΄Θ
ΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϟϪΒόϠΗϱάϟϲΒϠδϟ
ΔϣΎϋΕΩέϮϟϭ
ϮϤϧϰϠϋ
ϱήΰΠϟΩΎμΘϗϻ
ϞΑΎϘϤϟϲϓϭ ˬ
ϠλϮΗ
ΪϟΖ
ΩϮΟϭϰϟ·Δγέ
ήϴΛ΄Η
· ϲΑΎΠϳ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϼϟ ΎϣϮϫϭ
ΔλΎΧϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϠϟϢϬϤϟέϭΪϟϦϴΒϳ
Ϧϋ
ΝΎΘϧϹςΑϭέϖϳήρ ϙϼϬΘγϻϭ
ΓέΎηϹΐΠϳϭ
ϰϟ·
ϥ
ϴϘϟΔγέΪϟΞΎΘϧ
νέΎόΘΗϻΔϴγΎ
ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϦϴΑΔϗϼόϟΔόϴΒρΪϳΪΤΗΖϟϭΎΣϲΘϟΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟΔϴΒϟΎϏϊϣ ΔϬΟϮϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϭ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟ
ϦϤϜϳΎϣϭ
ϥϮϫϪϴϠϋΪϴϛ΄Θϟ
ΩΎμΘϗϻ
όϳήϟ
ϲ
ήΰΠϟΔϟΎΣϲϓΎϤϛ ΰϛήϳϱάϟϭ
ϰϠϋ
ϞϳϮϤΗ
ΕΎϧΎϋϹ
ϦϣϢϋΪϟϭ
ΪΣϭωΎτϗΕΪΎϋ
ϢϋΪϟΔϴϘϠΘϤϟΕΎϋΎτϘϟΔϴϤϨΗϦϣϦϜϤϳϻ
ϳϻϭ
ϦϤπ
ΔόϔΗήϣϮϤϧΕϻΪόϣϥΎϴΣϷΐϟΎϏϲϓ ΔϤΩϭ
ϞϛϢϏέϭ
ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϢϋΪϟΓήϴΒϜϟΔϴϟΎϤϟΕΎμμΨϤϟ
ˬ
ϭξϴϔΨΗϦϣϦϜϤΗϢϟΞΎΘϨϟϥΈϓ
έ
ΓήΘϓϝϮρΔϴάϐϟΩϮϤϟΕΩ
ˬϢϋΪϟ
ΕΩίϞΑ
ΕϻΪόϣ
ήϴϏΓέϮμΑΔϴάϐϟΩϮϤϟΩήϴΘγ ˬΔόϗϮΘϣ
ϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴγϲϓΎϳήϫϮΟϼϳΪόΗΐϠτΘϳΎϤϣ άϛϭ
Ϛϟ
ήϳϮτΗ
ΕΎϋΎτϘϟϞϜϟΔϳέΎϤΜΘγϹΕΎμμΨϤϟΓΩΎϳίϰϠϋΪϤΘόΗΔϴϣϮϤϋΕΎγΎϴγ
ϰϠϋΩΎϤΘϋϭ
ΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟ
ˬ
ϞλϮΘϤϟΔΠϴΘϨϟϥΈϓ ΎϬϴϟ·
ϦϜϤΗ
Ϧϣ
ΪϳΪΤΗ
ήϴΛ΄Θϟ ϲΑΎΠϳϹ
ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϠϟ ϰϠϋϲΒϠδϟϭ
ϮϤϨϟ
ˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
Ϗ
ϥήϴ
ΔϴδϴήϟΔϠϜθϤϟ
ΘϟΪϳΪΤΗϲϓϦϤϜΗ
΄
ˬϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΕήϴΛ ΐΠϳϚϟάϟϭ
ΔγέΩ
ωϮϧϦϣωϮϧϞϛ ϢϋΪϟ
ΔϬΟϮϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϭ
ωΎτϘϠϟ
ϲΣϼϔϟ
ήΛΪϳΪΤΗϭ
Ϟϛ
ϮϤϨϟϰϠϋωϮϧ
ϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻ
ΎϣϮϫ
ϻΪϗ
ΔϤϼϣΔϴγΎϴϗΝΫΎϤϧήϳϮτΗΎϬόϣέάόΘϳϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϰϠϋΔϘϴϗΩΔϴΎμΣ·ϞγϼγΏΎϴϏϞόϔΑΔϴϣΎϨϟϥΪϠΒϟϲϓΓΩΎϋήϓϮΘϳ
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...ϖϴΒτΗΪόΑξϔΨϨΗΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮόϟΔϴϠϜϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϥ
Trang 3
ήϴθΗΎϤϛ ΔγέΩ 0DUWÕQ-Retortillo and Pinilla (2014)
ϝϮΣ
κϠΨΘδΗˬΎΑϭέϭϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟΏΎΒγ...
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ϢΗϭ
Trang 4
ΝΫϮϤϧ ARDL
ΔϟΩΎόϤϠϟ (1)
...
ΔϴΠϬϨϤϟ ARDL
ΚϴΤΑˬϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭέΎΒΘΧϲϫ
ϝΎϘϓϭϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΰϜΗήϳ Pesaran and al (2001)
ϲϓ
ΝΫΎϤϧ ARDL
ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϴοήϔϟέΎΒΘΧϰϠϋ